Cinco de Mayo

[KingSweden24]

And with that we have three separate perspectives on the Ulster Crisis and how it brings down the Haldane government and seriously threatens British democracy. We'll have the results of the 1914 British elections, which won't exactly solve much other than putting poor Dick Haldane out of his misery, before long. Hopefully some of the subtle changes from OTL both in Ireland and in Britain made the way this crisis went off the rails make sense, but also set up well for explaining how Ireland Dominion-izes later on. WW1 really interrupted the process IOTL. I was going to save this for later on in 1914 but felt I needed to let this pivotal hour of Anglo-Irish history breathe after all the buildup to it.

We'll head back to the GAW for a while first, though.

(Hat Tip again to @Rattigan for his expertise on early 20th century Britain and ideas that made this permutation of the Ulster Crisis come to life)

 

[Gman]

So the UK becomes a flawed democracy, being demoted from a full democracy.
And seeing as Ireland has gone up in flames, here is some music to accompany it.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Sir Edward Grey, Chief Secretary for Ireland, had already dispatched the RIC to keep the peace as best he could and it had done little or even made things worse, as the Constabulary often targeted Catholic protestors rather than Protestant ones, and four policemen were killed in the space of four days.

Edward Grey doing something and have it just make the overall situation worse...no way! Never saw that coming!

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

It should also be pointed out that in present day the British form of government has persisted, whereas France is now a republic, and decisions made at the time are largely the reasons why.

Gross. The dream of a figurehead king/Emperor dies.

France never seems to survive Bonapartes....

It's over. The Second Mexican Empire will be the last vestigial remnant of Habsburg power. The main branch is going to collapse, and our only solace to that, is that the French get put in their place for the final time.

Not a bad idea..
a mass exile of Austrian nobles, or even catholic nobles make their way to Mexico, only to get screwed over when they realise they don't get what they want...

 

[DanMcCollum]

You know, not sure if you've decided what, if anything, to do with Dev in the ATL, but I've always had an idea for an interesting divergence.

The story is always told that after his mother decided to return to Ireland and leave New York, she narrowly missed his Cuban grandfather who was coming to NYC to take Baby Dev back to Cuba with him.

Now, leaving aside the questions about his actual paternity (there are stories that Develera bore more than a passing resemblance to a young man in his Mother's hometown and that said young man's family always treated Dev like he was one of their own), this does open up some interestong story ideas.

Dropping a man like Eamon Develera into early 20th century Cuba is kind of fascinating.

 

[Whanztastic]

How have I missed 9 updates!? "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"

 

[KingSweden24]

So the UK becomes a flawed democracy, being demoted from a full democracy.
And seeing as Ireland has gone up in flames, here is some music to accompany it.

COME OUT AND FIGHT ME LIKE A MAN!

Edward Grey doing something and have it just make the overall situation worse...no way! Never saw that coming!

I put him in Ireland for a reason (the reason being I’m a sadist)

You know, not sure if you've decided what, if anything, to do with Dev in the ATL, but I've always had an idea for an interesting divergence.

The story is always told that after his mother decided to return to Ireland and leave New York, she narrowly missed his Cuban grandfather who was coming to NYC to take Baby Dev back to Cuba with him.

Now, leaving aside the questions about his actual paternity (there are stories that Develera bore more than a passing resemblance to a young man in his Mother's hometown and that said young man's family always treated Dev like he was one of their own), this does open up some interestong story ideas.

Dropping a man like Eamon Develera into early 20th century Cuba is kind of fascinating.

Dev’s rise to prominence was dependent on a lot of critical factors, of course, like everybody else important in the Rising being executed and then Collins’ assassination. Even in Ireland, without the very specific circumstances of the Rising, fall of the IPP to SF’s benefit, and subsequent wounds of the Civil War he’d probably have a ceiling in where he could go

How have I missed 9 updates!? "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"

If anything, the circumstances around TTL’s Ulster Crisis are probably even more chaotic than what I can formulate in words

 

[AristideBriand1925]

Gross. The dream of a figurehead king/Emperor dies.

In fairness the French have never really had a good record with liking kings or queens or even supporting the monarchy; especially after 1789. Consider that between 1815 and 1940 there were four regimes all but one of them monarchies and all but one overthrown either by revolution or war. There's a difference between trying to overthrow a monarch imposed by God and a government elected by the people which has more staying power.

 

[DanMcCollum]

COME OUT AND FIGHT ME LIKE A MAN!

I put him in Ireland for a reason (the reason being I’m a sadist)

Dev’s rise to prominence was dependent on a lot of critical factors, of course, like everybody else important in the Rising being executed and then Collins’ assassination. Even in Ireland, without the very specific circumstances of the Rising, fall of the IPP to SF’s benefit, and subsequent wounds of the Civil War he’d probably have a ceiling in where he could go

Oh, no doubt. Minus his role as the last commander to surrender during the Risinf and the internal and exrernal legitimacy that brought him, Dev would probably have ended up as a staunchly nationalistic Maths Professor and manager of the Uni (or local) rugby squad. Which, I somehow suspect, is a life that would have brought him more than a little bit of joy.

But the Cuban divergence is one that has akways interested me. Yes, he's unlikely to rise to prominence there (certainly not on the same manner). But it's not every day where a major national leader could have easily grown up in three countries (Ireland, America or Cuba) and it's an interesting thoughr experiment to see how each of those ebvironments woukd have molded him and, if one wants to habdwave a national polirocal career for him, how he'd adapt to those circumstances.

 

[Ironshark]

oh boy
well at the orders gonna get a whipping
.maybe

 

[KingSweden24]

In fairness the French have never really had a good record with liking kings or queens or even supporting the monarchy; especially after 1789. Consider that between 1815 and 1940 there were four regimes all but one of them monarchies and all but one overthrown either by revolution or war. There's a difference between trying to overthrow a monarch imposed by God and a government elected by the people which has more staying power.

Don’t like their Presidents, either!

Oh, no doubt. Minus his role as the last commander to surrender during the Risinf and the internal and exrernal legitimacy that brought him, Dev would probably have ended up as a staunchly nationalistic Maths Professor and manager of the Uni (or local) rugby squad. Which, I somehow suspect, is a life that would have brought him more than a little bit of joy.

A sound idea!

 

[AristideBriand1925]

Frankly I think this whole debacle will be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals in the long turn. Sure they're getting kicked around by the Army and by the revolutionaries in Ireland and they can't seem to hold the center ground. They also don't really enjoy the benefits of fully espousing Home Rule, being split between different factions of Gladstonians, Chamberlainites and Lloyd George Liberals. I don't think the Tories are really going to fare much better with Ireland further down the road and I think their intransigence is going to be a big reason why Ireland breaks free. But once you remove the Irish political football; you might see the Liberal Party regain its lost cohesion which coupled with the reactionary behavior of the Cecil and the Tories will probably help the Liberals return to power. But seriously the 1914 election is going to hurt for the Liberals.

 

[AristideBriand1925]

Don’t like their Presidents, either!

A sound idea!

That is true; which is part of the reason why you do see alternation in the Fifth Republic as well as the chronic instability of the Third and Fourth Republics.

 

[KingSweden24]

Frankly I think this whole debacle will be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals in the long turn. Sure they're getting kicked around by the Army and by the revolutionaries in Ireland and they can't seem to hold the center ground. They also don't really enjoy the benefits of fully espousing Home Rule, being split between different factions of Gladstonians, Chamberlainites and Lloyd George Liberals. I don't think the Tories are really going to fare much better with Ireland further down the road and I think their intransigence is going to be a big reason why Ireland breaks free. But once you remove the Irish political football; you might see the Liberal Party regain its lost cohesion which coupled with the reactionary behavior of the Cecil and the Tories will probably help the Liberals return to power. But seriously the 1914 election is going to hurt for the Liberals.

Yeah, the thing I’m trying to get across is that 1910s British politics ITTL is basically a lesson in how in some ways there’s no way to win; just a question of mildly you lose, and the whole decade is just a slow-rolling debacle. The Tories/Nats won’t really be able to shift to a broader electorate until they ditch pious annoying Oxbridge aristocrats like Cecil (which is where Jix comes in, to everyone’s future horror)

That is true; which is part of the reason why you do see alternation in the Fifth Republic as well as the chronic instability of the Third and Fourth Republics.

“It’s a Thursday and I’m bored, let’s topple a Cabinet for fun!”

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Dev’s rise to prominence was dependent on a lot of critical factors, of course, like everybody else important in the Rising being executed and then Collins’ assassination. Even in Ireland, without the very specific circumstances of the Rising, fall of the IPP to SF’s benefit, and subsequent wounds of the Civil War he’d probably have a ceiling in where he could go

Considering that develera was born in the US, he could completely become a President if the US if he stays there.
He'd be what,31 years old now? He'l l be able to run for the Senate after wars end. 😆

 

[AristideBriand1925]

It will be interesting to see which direction the Tories take to broaden their appeal. Dumping the aristocrats is a good start but where would the party go? They benefited from absorbing the business and upper middle classes that used to support the Liberals and which disliked the Labour Party. Maybe they might appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment as a potential wedge?

 

[DanMcCollum]

Considering that develera was born in the US, he could completely become a President if the US if he stays there.
He'd be what,31 years old now? He'l l be able to run for the Senate after wars end.

Why do I suspect he'd drift to the left-center wing of the Integrationists

 

[KingSweden24]

Considering that develera was born in the US, he could completely become a President if the US if he stays there.
He'd be what,31 years old now? He'l l be able to run for the Senate after wars end. 😆

Why do I suspect he'd drift to the left-center wing of the Integrationists

A Senator Dev wouldn’t be a bad idea… and it’d be interesting to toy with a Democrat who’s a rock-ribbed social conservative Catholic but also very open to state intervention and paternalism economically. He’d be a good fit for the TL, certainly

It will be interesting to see which direction the Tories take to broaden their appeal. Dumping the aristocrats is a good start but where would the party go? They benefited from absorbing the business and upper middle classes that used to support the Liberals and which disliked the Labour Party. Maybe they might appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment as a potential wedge?

This is precisely their issue, and why the Liberals will, save for some very specific circumstances (one of them being the upcoming Jix era) be the natural governing party of Britain as they’ve more or less been post-1878

But anti-immigrant and general backlash sentiment will be part of what fuels the Nats in time, especially in the future

 

[Curtain Jerker]

A Senator Dev wouldn’t be a bad idea… and it’d be interesting to toy with a Democrat who’s a rock-ribbed social conservative Catholic but also very open to state intervention and paternalism economically. He’d be a good fit for the TL, certainly

We're getting close to the OTL era of Democrats breaking through in New England. There's plenty of Irish immigrants in New England OTL and ITTL so he could win in MA or RI as a Senator, Rep, or Governor as the harbinger of a changing political region.

 

[Devoid]

and it’d be interesting to toy with a Democrat who’s a rock-ribbed social conservative Catholic but also very open to state intervention and paternalism economically.

I mean, the vibes I've been getting both from your own discussion and the TL itself is that the party system the U.S. is headed towards is between the economically interventionist and socially conservative Democrats and the socially liberal and economically laissez faire Liberals (so a cleaner small vs. big government split), with a few third parties that are stronger than those of OTL. Which makes for an interesting difference, rather than the general tendency to just flip the parties and/or replace one of them that by the modern day is just the old party but with a different name (TL-191 being the most obvious example), except in the cases where they go for a three-party system (like a continuation of TL-191 on this website), instead we get two parties that don't neatly resemble those of our other timeline.
Although apart from that part about stronger third parties, which has been explicit, I could be entirely wrong.