Cinco de Mayo

[Nivek]

Socioeconomics in Mexico: A Study

From who? The UNAM?

 

[KingSweden24]

"...Fritz's first task was to heal a grieving nation and present a front of stability to a wounded Germany. In that sense, it was business as usual - the Iron Chancellor chose the path forward and dedicated himself to it. Having already mulled ending the Kulturkampf, now the monarchy itself was in danger and Bismarck needed the support of all of Germany's conservatives, including the Catholic ones in the Center Party, to forge ahead. And so the Kulturkampf ended with a whimper, having brought South German Catholics into politics as a voting bloc and turned the country's bishops to the ultramontanist camp, complicating his foreign relations as negotiations over the Papacy's return to Rome threatened to plunge Italy into civil conflict. While this was of course a move that would be considered liberal by today's standards, it was in fact a concession Fritz was profoundly unhappy about. Famously anticlerical in his time, though that aspect of his personality is largely forgotten now, the new Kaiser had sought to break the influence of the Church in Germany even further. Bismarck's next move further ruined the strained relationship between Kaiser and Chancellor when he abolished the Socialist Party and passed a number of laws severely restricting socialist activity. Fritz was appalled, and Empress Victoria suggested he sack Bismarck as a show of strength. The move was well-received enough by the public, and the country was still reeling after the Old Kaiser's death; another crisis early in Frederick's reign was thus avoided, and their mutual grief eventually brought the frosty relationship between the two men to a begrudging understanding..."

- Frederick and Victoria: Consorts of Germany

 

[KingSweden24]

From who? The UNAM?

That'd be an appropriate source, wouldn't it?

 

[Nivek]

now the monarchy itself was in danger

Danger of what? took 4 years of war and a country meddling when was not called to collapse...

 

[dcharles]

KingSweden24, did you read any books for the timeline Cinco De Mayo. Reading historical books can give you a greater understanding of what might have been. Twilight of the Valkyrie and Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond had their authors read books in order to portray their scenarios as accurately as possible.

Is that supposed to sound as smug as it comes across?

 

[Ficboy]

Is that supposed to sound as smug as it comes across?

No just a friendly question.

 

[KingSweden24]

Danger of what? took 4 years of war and a country meddling when was not called to collapse...

A socialist capping the uniter of Germany would probably lend to a different contemporary attitude, but that's just me *shrug emoji*

Chalk it up to hyperbole haha

 

[Nivek]

A socialist capping the uniter of Germany would probably lend to a different contemporary attitude, but that's just me *shrug emoji*

Chalk it up to hyperbole haha

One time i would wrote that Friederich III anglophila got his ousted but alas...is not the time

 

[KingSweden24]

One time i would wrote that Friederich III anglophila got his ousted but alas...is not the time

I think you could make an interesting TL with a surviving Friedrich III and his Anglophilia doing him in! That's not quite the direction we'll go here, though, since Germany would probably like having Britain as a bulwark against the Iron Triangle in this case, Italy being a basket case and their "ally" Russia having just been punched in the mouth by the Ottomans, of all people

 

[Nalph Nado]

Longtime reader here, I was wondering what the immigration situation is in the USA, the CSA, and Mexico: who is winning the title for 1880’s Melting Pot of Nations?

 

[Ficboy]

Longtime reader here, I was wondering what the immigration situation is in the USA, the CSA, and Mexico: who is winning the title for 1880’s Melting Pot of Nations?

The USA so far. The CSA has some immigration but not to the extent of it's neighbor. Same with Mexico.

 

[pathfinder]

who is winning the title for 1880’s Melting Pot of Nations?

The US still takes it, though from the last updates I get the feeling that Mexico is a close second, or at least it's long surpassed the Confederacy.

 

[KingSweden24]

Longtime reader here, I was wondering what the immigration situation is in the USA, the CSA, and Mexico: who is winning the title for 1880’s Melting Pot of Nations?

Thanks for reading and commenting! Excellent question. @pathfinder has it correct, more or less: the USA is far and away the destination of choice for European immigrants with her high wage industrial base and considerable land for settlement. Canada’s immigration boom didn’t really happen OTL at this point yet outside of the home islands so I’d say Mexico is second place (well behind TTL US but we’ll ahead of OTL Mexico) and then Canada and then the CSA a distant fourth. I think you’d still see some pockets of immigrants (Italians in New Orleans for instance, though maybe not quite yet), but it’s hard to attract economic immigrants to a place where there is little industry to pay them better than back home (or other countries), all the land is more or less spoken for by the oligarchy to the point that native born whites have a hard time making it, and the labor pool you compete with are literal slaves.

 

[Ficboy]

Thanks for reading and commenting! Excellent question. @pathfinder has it correct, more or less: the USA is far and away the destination of choice for European immigrants with her high wage industrial base and considerable land for settlement. Canada’s immigration boom didn’t really happen OTL at this point yet outside of the home islands so I’d say Mexico is second place (well behind TTL US but we’ll ahead of OTL Mexico) and then Canada and then the CSA a distant fourth. I think you’d still see some pockets of immigrants (Italians in New Orleans for instance, though maybe not quite yet), but it’s hard to attract economic immigrants to a place where there is little industry to pay them better than back home (or other countries), all the land is more or less spoken for by the oligarchy to the point that native born whites have a hard time making it, and the labor pool you compete with are literal slaves.

For any immigration to the CSA, Southern and Eastern Europeans would be the biggest groups coming here alongside to an extent Asians but not to the extent seen with it's rival the USA.

 

[KingSweden24]

1878 Senate Elections

The erosion of the Republican Party continues, leaving only three members - two from Massachusetts, and Hannibal Hamlin from Maine - in its entire caucus, leaving it as a truly regional Upper New England party. A number of former Republicans are re-elected as Liberals as the collapse of the party in state legislatures is complete, and Liberals and Democrats trade a Senate seat apiece in Colorado and Pennsylvania as new legislatures are convened in each. The dominance of Democrats across much of the West is noticeable, besides the firmly anti-Democratic states of Iowa and Kansas; Liberals are beginning to make inroads elsewhere, though.

CA: John S. Hager (D) Re-Elected
CO: Jerome B. Chaffee (L) Retired; Nathaniel Hill (D) Elected (D Gain) [1]
CT: William Henry Barnum (L) Defeated; Orville Platt (L) Elected
IL: Richard Oglesby (R) Re-Elected as Liberal (L Gain)
IN: Daniel Voorhees (D) Re-Elected
IA: William Allison (L) Re-Elected
KS: John Ingalls (R) Re-Elected as Liberal (L Gain)
MD: George Dennis (D) Retired; James Black Groome (D) Elected
MO: David H. Armstrong (D) Appointed after death of predecessor; re-elected [2]
NV: John P. Jones (D) Re-Elected
NH: Bainbridge Wadleigh (L) Not Renominated; Henry Blair (L) Elected
NY: William Evarts (R) Retired; Wheeler Hazard Peckham (L) Elected (L Gain) [3]
OH: George Pendleton (D) Re-Elected
OH (s): Allen Thurman (D) Appointed to Supreme Court; Thomas Young (L) Appointed, Defeated for Election by George Hoadly (D)
OR: James Nesmith (D) Retired; James H. Slater (D) Elected
PA: Asa Packer (D) Retired; J. Donald Cameron (L) Elected (L Gain) [4]
VT: Justin Morrill (L) Re-Elected
WI: Matthew Carpenter (D) Re-Elected

1878 House Elections

Liberals do well in state legislatures around the country and gain a net of 23 seats in the US House of Representatives, about half each from Democrats and Republicans. The latter party is reduced to single digit members for the 46th Congress. The Democrats only barely keep their majority in Congress, with 143 seats. The improving economy under President Hendricks and continued siphoning of opposition votes with Republicans still fielding candidates across much of the Midwest gives Democrats openings in both Congress and state houses. Samuel Marshall is elected for a record fifth-straight term as Speaker of the House, and his sixth term as Speaker total, in his last Congress as Speaker.

46th Congress of the United States

Senate: 30D-20L-3R-1AM

President of the Senate: Samuel Cox (D)
Senate President pro tempore: Henry Mower Rice of Minnesota (D)

California
1. Newton Booth (A-M) (1875-)
3. John S. Hager (D) (1873-)

Colorado

2. Henry M. Teller (L) (1876-)
3. Nathaniel Hill (D) (1879-)

Connecticut
1. William W. Eaton (D) (1875-)
3. Orville Platt (L) (1879-)

Delaware
1. Thomas Bayard (D) (1869-)
2. Eli Saulsbury (D) (1871-)

Illinois
2. John Logan (L) (1871-)
3. Richard J. Oglesby (L) (1873-)

Indiana
1. Joseph E. McDonald (D) (1875-)
3. Daniel Voorhees (D) (1873-)

Iowa
2. Samuel Kirkwood (L) (1877-)
3. William Allison (L) (1873-)

Kansas
2. David P. Lowe (L) (1877-)
3. John Ingalls (L) (1873-)

Maine
1. Hannibal Hamlin (R) (1869-)
2. James G. Blaine (L) (1877-)

Maryland
1. William Pinkney Whyte (D) (1869-)
3. James Black Groome (D) (1879-)

Massachusetts
1. Henry Dawes (R) (1875-)
2. George Frisbie Hoar (R) (1877-)

Michigan
1. Isaac Christiancy (L) (1875-)
2. Byron G. Stout (D) (1865-)

Minnesota
1. Henry Mower Rice (D) (1858 -)
2. Henry Hastings Sibley (D) (1865-)

Missouri
1. Francis Cockrell (D) (1875-)
3. David H. Armstrong (D) (1877-)

Nebraska
1. Thomas Tipton (L) (1869-)
2. Experience Estabrook (D) (1871-)

Nevada
1. William Sharon (D) (1875-)
3. John P. Jones (D) (1873-)

New Hampshire
2. Aaron Cragin (L) (1865-)
3. Henry Blair (L) (1873-)

New Jersey
1. Theodore Fitz Randolph (D) (1875-)
2. John R. McPherson (D) (1871-)

New Mexico

1. William A. Pile (L) (1875-)
2. Samuel Beach Axtell (D) (1875-)

New York
1. Francis Kernan (D) (1875-)
3. Wheeler Hazard Peckham (L) (1879-)

Ohio
1. George Hoadly (D) (187
3. George Pendleton (D) (1873-)

Oregon
2. La Fayette Grover (D) (1871-)
3. James H. Slater (D) (1879-)

Pennsylvania
1. Charles Buckalew (D) (1863-)
3. J. Donald Cameron (L) (1879-)

Rhode Island
1. William Sprague (L) (1863-)
2. Henry B. Anthony (L) (1859-)

Vermont
1. George F. Edmunds (L) (1866-)
3. Justin Morrill (L) (1867-)

West Virginia
1. Joseph Sprigg (D) (1869-)
2. Henry Gassaway Davis (D) (1871-)

Wisconsin
1. James Rood Doolittle (D) (1857-)
3. Matthew Carpenter (D) (1873-)

House: 143D-128L-9R

Speaker of the House: Samuel Marshall of Illinois (D)

[1] Hill was a mining engineer active in the silver industry; he would not fit in well with the Liberals, who are fairly dedicated to the gold standard, compared to a much more silver-friendly Democratic Party in the Hendricks era. Thus, he makes more sense as a Democrat. I think I'll have Henry Teller from Colorado switch eventually, too.
[2] Seeing as George Vest served in the Confederate Congress, I doubt he's going to be a US Senator, ever, even with the Rapprochement Era and all
[3] More on this in a bit
[4] I'm figuring the fact that Asa Packer died a few months after this Congress was seated probably means he wasn't in great health

 

[KingSweden24]

"...the coronation of Friedrich III of Spain marked an occasion important enough for Serrano to travel to Berlin along with Leopold and Martinez-Campos. With Infante Guillermo (who strongly preferred being called Wilhelm, even in his new adoptive land) fostering with his Hohenzollern brethren in Germany and being privately tutored to maintain a connection to his ancestral home, it was also an opportunity for the King to visit his son. The coronation was a grand affair - all the important royalty of Europe was there. Umberto I of Italy came, despite having survived an assassination attempt just a week earlier; Prince Arthur of Great Britain represented his mother along with both Lord Hartington, his Prime Minister, and the Earl of Granville, Britain's canny foreign minister. Tsarevich Alexander came from Russia with Chancellor Gorchakov for his father was too terrified of leaving his country's soil for fear of assassination or a coup after the disastrous Bulgarian War; even Franz Joseph begrudgingly made the trip. Perhaps most importantly, the Young Eagle of France was there with his betrothed, Maria del Pilar, whose presence plainly discomfited Leopold to the point that Spain's king avoided being in the same room as Emperor Napoleon whenever possible.

The coronation feast, however, was the site of one of Spain's most legendary diplomatic mishaps, one which nearly triggered a war (though historians debate to this day how likely a conflict with France really was). Despite being only fourteen, the Infante had been drinking aggressively with Friedrich's sons, Princes Wilhelm and Heinrich [1], and revealed sometime in the evening to Martinez-Campos that the Germans were open to a formal alliance with Spain to contain France's continental and overseas ambitions, particularly now that Russia had revealed its military weakness in the recent conflict. Surrounded by France, Austria and Denmark (which had aggressively reformed its military, implemented mandatory conscription, and bought modern French weaponry in the past decade), and unsure of Italy's reliability, Germany viewed a Spanish partnership as ideal, especially with Spain's army being veteran in conflicts with the Confederacy and with the Carlist uprising. Martinez-Campos, himself having taken to drink to cope with his lame arm [2], later divulged this to a number of persons, almost gleeful and bragging.

The move was a massive diplomatic faux pas, not only due to its setting - at Friedrich's own coronation, thus embarassing a relative of Leopold - but also that the European alliances were, in the more gentlemanly and discreet concert of powers in the 1870s, meant to be confidential, understood to exist quietly rather than overtly. Here then was Spain's most powerful military commander loudly asserting that Spain would be partnering with Germany against France, due to Napoleon's betrothal to the Bourbon pretender's sister (Don Alfonso had, of course, not traveled to Berlin as it would have been a profound insult to Leopold for him to attend). The Berlin Affair, as it came to be known, outraged the French press and effectively killed any chance of an informal alliance with Germany as well, isolating Spain diplomatically. Leopold was humiliated and immediately sacked Martinez-Campos, dispatching him to be Spain's minister to Chile (where only two years later he would redeem himself by helping mediate the War of the Pacific), and revealed the King's direct interference in foreign policy - for though Spain's constitution did not quite depoliticize the monarchy in the way, for instance, Britain's did, Leopold's role was meant to be symbolic and ceremonial, and not carry nearly the same power as other sovereigns. With the King now having circumvented the Foreign Ministry and attempted to create a defensive alliance without consulting his more cautious government, Serrano would return to not only a diplomatic crisis, but a constitutional one as well.

The public, however, seemed to care little - the Berlin Affair never damaged Leopold's standing with contemporary Spaniards who still adored him as the hero who crushed the Carlists, kept the Caribbean provinces in the fold and had delivered a decade of stability to the country that had allowed it a burgeoning industrial revolution, particularly in the area of shipbuilding where it sat globally only behind Britain and France in tonnage produced for both naval and merchant marine craft (by 1885 Spain would have the world's third-largest navy) [3]. However, with the information that Spain was willing to partner with Germany to go to war if necessary to prevent a Bourbon Restoration in Madrid, the Young Eagle and his grizzled advisors Bazaine and MacMahon found themselves in a difficult position - how to navigate this insult without triggering a war with Spain?"


- Old Bull: Francisco Serrano and Modern Spain

[1] Certainly royals know how to party, especially Germans amirite??
[2] Recall he lost use of his left arm in an assassination attempt during the Carlist uprising
[3] The US is still playing catchup, even with the 1869 Naval Act. It was really, really behind on shipbuilding in the 19th century outside of the New England whaling industry, from what I've gleaned

 

[Nivek]

ow to navigate this insult without triggering a war with Spain?"

That is the point, was a WIN-WIN for spain even if you try to paint something else, france do nothing ends up looking bad, try to meddle and confirm spanish bluff was with a good purprose, not only that, the reichsrat and tag would even demand to defend a fellow german noble vs france.

 

[KingSweden24]

"...the battle-lines of the 1880s were more sharply drawn as it became clear that the Democrats were still unsure what they indeed represented. They were the party of the small farmer, even though farm states like Kansas and Iowa aggressively resisted them; they were the party of the working man, even as Democratic governors still called out state militias to crush labor strikes; they were the party of free silver, even as Northeastern Democrats known as "Bourbons" aligned more with the growing Liberals in support for harder currency. To say nothing of splits on questions such as tariff and appointments policy, where some Democrats yearned for free trade and well-greased patronage machines, while others - in particularly the ever-changing President Hendricks [1] - were sympathetic to arguments that the relatively high tariffs in place protected industry and that "appointments by merit," as championed by the Hoffman wing of the party, would help Democrats defeat Liberals on their main issue, public corruption and expenditures.

Indeed it says much of the brewing civil war within the Democratic Party between her reactionaries, led by the George Pendletons and Thomas Bayards of the world, and her younger, reform-minded members, that one can trace the party's future alignment with the labor movement to the debates of the Hoffman/Hendricks era, where the Old Hickory Party dominated postbellum American politics. It was not unlike, in some ways, the burgeoning debate within Britain's Conservatives on the other side of the Atlantic following their ouster from power in 1878. As the Republican foe collapsed - by 1879 there were only twelve total left in Congress, all from New England, and their presence in state legislatures was similarly diminished as they became little other than another left-wing protest party like the Anti-Monopolists or Greenbackers - the Liberals emerged as a genuine threat to Democratic dominance. The Liberal message was consistent: both Republican and Democratic administrations were corrupt, were machines to distribute patronage, and - as the party shifted away from reformist Tildenism to more muscular, power-seeking Blainism with the emergence of Senator James Gillespie Blaine of Maine [2] as its most prominent public voice - arrayed against the interests of America's hardworking Protestant majority in favor of blacks and socialists (in the case of Republicans) or Irishmen and Catholics in general (in the case of Democrats)..."

- The Shadow of the Hickory Tree: The Reinvention of the Postbellum Democratic Party

[1] Minor retcon - after it was pointed out to me by @LordVorKon that it didn't really make sense, Hendricks ending homesteading didn't happen. Forget that that was written however many posts ago
[2] Blaine, not exactly a stranger to corruption IOTL of course, was also famously and virulently anti-Catholic. I believe this would be much more of a trend in TTL USA, seeing as Reconstruction/Civil War questions are no longer super pertinent in the political discourse and aren't what divide the major parties

 

[KingSweden24]

That is the point, was a WIN-WIN for spain even if you try to paint something else, france do nothing ends up looking bad, try to meddle and confirm spanish bluff was with a good purprose, not only that, the reichsrat and tag would even demand to defend a fellow german noble vs france.

Embarrassing short term, and isolating in the short term, but Spain's position isn't terrible.

Honestly? I still haven't figured out how France deescalates this...

 

[Nivek]

Embarrassing short term, and isolating in the short term, but Spain's position isn't terrible.

Honestly? I still haven't figured out how France deescalates this...

The real one is Ignored it, they where the one started the provocation, so just let it down so would die naturally