Cinco de Mayo

Carnavon really is quite inept. The country is on the verge of open rebellion. Malcolm X was right - people should vote but if they can't vote then the bullet may be the next step.
 
Carnavon really is quite inept. The country is on the verge of open rebellion. Malcolm X was right - people should vote but if they can't vote then the bullet may be the next step.
Granted one of the difficulties with this project is my goal to elevate could-have-been figures to prominence, and there’s understandably little detail on historically obscure figures. Everything Ive turned up on Lord Carnarvon’s experience in the Reform Act debate and Colonial Office OTL suggested he was an aristocratic brat who failed upwards. That’s sort of been my overarching template for extrapolating his Premiership.


Imagine if he ends up getting back into his old antics as the caudillo of the North. But nah, he's probably a bit too aged for those sorts of shenanigans now.
Some ideas of potential local caudillos for the late 70s early 1880s would actually be pretty useful, if you know of any :)
 
We’re on a quick break here while I’m out of town and start putting together my thoughts on TTL Russo-Turkish War. I’ll cover the 1876 US elections here in a few days.
In the meantime, thoughts comments and feedback are very appreciated!
 
Is Britain going to just let France control the main route to India/Australia? If not, this war could get a lot bigger and uglier.
This is a really difficult position they’re in, isn’t it? You either support Russia and dismember the Ottomans on the off-chance France doesn’t deepen her influence in Egypt/North Africa as a result... or you hope your main rival in Asia loses and that you stay on Nappy 4’s good side.
 
Yeah... France is expanding her navy and has just seized control of the canal. Neither of these things is long-term viable for British interests at this point. Russia might be a threat to British interests in India, if they're not kept distracted by adventures into the Balkans. France is a threat right now.

I'm betting that Carnarvon and Co. can make a deal with Alexander to settle spheres of influence in the east in exchange for a free hand in the Balkans and a Russian military presence on the Black Sea. Granted, Britain also doesn't want Russia to control the Dardanelles, but that's something of a separate issue.
 
Yeah... France is expanding her navy and has just seized control of the canal. Neither of these things is long-term viable for British interests at this point. Russia might be a threat to British interests in India, if they're not kept distracted by adventures into the Balkans. France is a threat right now.

I'm betting that Carnarvon and Co. can make a deal with Alexander to settle spheres of influence in the east in exchange for a free hand in the Balkans and a Russian military presence on the Black Sea. Granted, Britain also doesn't want Russia to control the Dardanelles, but that's something of a separate issue.
Some interesting thoughts!
 
US Election 1876 Results
Full Results: US Elections 1876

165 electors needed to win

Thomas Hendricks of Indiana/Sanford Church of New York (Democratic) - 40.5% of the popular vote, 212 electoral votes

Pennsylvania 39
Ohio 29
Missouri 20
Indiana 19
Iowa 14
Michigan 14
Wisconsin 13
New Jersey 12
Maryland 10
California 8
Minnesota 7
West Virginia 6
Kansas 6
Oregon 3
Delaware 3
Nebraska 3
New Mexico 3
Nevada 3

Samuel Tilden of New York/George F. Edmunds of Vermont (Liberal) - 40.4% of the popular vote, 104 electoral votes

New York 47
Illinois 28
Connecticut 8
Maine 8
Vermont 5
New Hampshire 5
Colorado 3

Benjamin Butler of Massachusetts/Zachariah Chandler of Michigan (Republican) - 21 Electoral Votes, 19.1% of the popular vote

Massachusetts 17
Rhode Island 4

1876 Senate Results

A fairly uneventful election for Senators, as no seats were lost by the ruling Democrats and the only switches occurred both from Republicans becoming Liberals during the 44th Congress or being replaced by Liberals as the Republican caucuses collapsed in many state legislatures.

CO: Henry M. Teller APPOINTED and Elected to full term (Liberal Gain)
CO: Jerome B. Chaffee APPOINTED (Liberal Gain)
DE: Eli Saulsbury Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
IL: John Logan (R) Re-Elected as Liberal (Liberal Gain)
IA: George G. Wright (R) Retired; Samuel Kirkwood (L) ELECTED (Liberal Gain)
KS: David P. Lowe (L) ELECTED (Liberal Gain)
ME: James G. Blaine (L) APPOINTED and elected to full term (Liberal Gain)
MA: George Frisbie Hoar (R) Elected (Republican Hold)
MI: Byron Stout (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
MN: Henry Hasting Sibley (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
NE: Experience Estabrook (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
NH: Aaron Cragin (L) Re-Eelcted (Liberal Hold)
NJ: Joel Parker (D) RETIRED; John R. McPherson (D) ELECTED (Democratic Hold)
NM: Samuel Beach Axtell (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)
OR: James K. Kelly (D) RETIRED; La Fayette Grover (D) ELECTED (Democratic Hold)
RI: Henry B. Anthony (L) Re-Elected (Liberal Hold)
WV: Henry Gossaway Davis (D) Re-Elected (Democratic Hold)

1876 House Results

The Democrats lose 18 seats from their caucus and the Republicans lose 60% of theirs as they are reduced to a mere 20 seats - the Liberal Party of the United States for the first time has more than 100 members of the United States House of Representatives. Liberals do especially well in the Midwest, outside of their traditional heartland.

45th Congress of the United States

Senate: 30D-17L-6R-1AM

President of the Senate: Samuel Cox (D)
Senate President pro tempore: Henry Mower Rice of Minnesota (D)

California
1. Newton Booth (A-M) (1875-)
3. John S. Hager (D) (1873-)

Colorado

2. Henry M. Teller (L) (1876-)
3. Jerome B. Chaffee (L) (1876-)

Connecticut
1. William W. Eaton (D) (1875-)
3. Orris Ferry (L) (1867-)

Delaware
1. Thomas Bayard (D) (1869-)
2. Eli Saulsbury (D) (1871-)

Illinois
2. John Logan (L) (1871-)
3. Richard Oglesby (R) (1873-)

Indiana
1. Joseph E. McDonald (D) (1875-)
3. Daniel Voorhees (D) (1873-)

Iowa
2. Samuel Kirkwood (L) (1877-)
3. William Allison (L) (1873-)

Kansas
2. David P. Lowe (L) (1877-)
3. John Ingalls (R) (1873-)

Maine
1. Hannibal Hamlin (R) (1869-)
2. James G. Blaine (L) (1877-)

Maryland
1. William Pinkney Whyte (D) (1869-)
3. George Dennis (D) (1873-)

Massachusetts
1. Henry Dawes (R) (1875-)
2. George Frisbie Hoar (R) (1877-)

Michigan
1. Isaac Christiancy (L) (1875-)
2. Byron G. Stout (D) (1865-)

Minnesota
1. Henry Mower Rice (D) (185:cool:
2. Henry Hastings Sibley (D) (1865-)

Missouri
1. Francis Cockrell (D) (1875-)
3. Lewis Bogy (D) (1873-)

Nebraska
1. Thomas Tipton (L) (1869-)
2. Experience Estabrook (D) (1871-)

Nevada
1. William Sharon (D) (1875-)
3. John P. Jones (D) (1873-)

New Hampshire
2. Aaron Cragin (L) (1865-)
3. Bainbridge Wadleigh (L) (1873-)

New Jersey
1. Theodore Fitz Randolph (D) (1875-)
2. John R. McPherson (D) (1871-)

New Mexico

1. William A. Pile (L) (1875-)
2. Samuel Beach Axtell (D) (1875-)

New York
1. Francis Kernan (D) (1875-)
3. William Evarts (R) (1873-)

Ohio
1. Allen Thurman (D) (1869-)
3. George Pendleton (D) (1873-)

Oregon
2. La Fayette Grover (D) (1871-)
3. James Nesmith (D) (1873-)

Pennsylvania
1. Charles Buckalew (D) (1863-)
3. Asa Parker (D) (1873-)

Rhode Island
1. William Sprague (L) (1863-)
2. Henry B. Anthony (L) (1859-)

Vermont
1. George F. Edmunds (L) (1866-)
3. Justin Morrill (L) (1867-)

West Virginia
1. Joseph Sprigg (D) (1869-)
2. Henry Gassaway Davis (D) (1871-)

Wisconsin
1. James Rood Doolittle (D) (1857-)
3. Matthew Carpenter (D) (1873-)

House: 155D-105L-20R

Speaker of the House: Samuel Marshall of Illinois (D)
 
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Hendricks: America's 20th President
"...the Republicans were effectively a non-factor other than in siphoning votes away from the Liberals in crucial states. Despite high unemployment and disquiet in the centennial year, and Tilden running on his career as an aggressive opponent of gross patronage and public corruption, the declining Republican Party still kept him from capitalizing on the unpopularity of the incumbent Hoffman administration. Though Hendricks won the popular vote by only 0.1%, he won a comfortable majority in the electoral college thanks to a strong base in the Midwest and West. The conservatives, locked out of power since before the War of Southern Independence, were back in power..."

- Hendricks: America's 20th President
 
As a side note, yes, Samuel Tilden is getting screwed out of the Presidency in every universe it appears and I enjoy the irony of him losing this time to his OTL running mate
 
The Eastern Question
"...the Great Powers had hoped to impose some semblance of enforceable requirements of reform upon the Ottomans at the Constantinople Conference, but the Ottomans summarily rejected the push for autonomous provinces. In the eyes of Istanbul, and later historians, it was a remarkable overreach by the Concert of Europe, to attempt to dictate special privileges within Turkish borders and carve out exclusively and uniquely governed provinces for (invariably Christian) ethnic minorities. To Huseyin Pasha [1], the grizzled Defense Minister who angrily rejected the terms of the Conference, it was clearly a pretext to an eventual stripping of the most valuable and industrialized territories of the Empire. The machinations were complex - Salisbury of Britain led the charge, his skepticism of Turkish intentions overwhelming the longstanding British skepticism about Russian intentions about the Dardanelles and accessing the Mediterranean. In that sense, the Conference devolved into an effort for Britain and Russia to hash out their differences in Central Asia as well as their mutual suspicion of increasing French influence in Istanbul and Paris's control of Suez... while all the while, Germany sat on the sidelines as a "neutral" arbiter weighing how best to flex her muscle and Austria watched Russia suspiciously, particularly worried about Moscow's intentions regarding all Slavic subjects in the Balkans and a potential loss of influence in the Ottoman border suzerainties.

It was all for naught, though, as Abdulhamid revealed the new Ottoman Constitution, modelling the country on Western constitutional monarchies with the soft help of France. While France and Britain were resolved not to start a general war in Europe over the Balkan Crisis, it was clear that the two nations would not be joining to defend Istanbul this time around. Even Marshal Bazaine of France, the most important man in the room at Constantinople, made clear to Grand Vizier Midhat Pasha that fundamental reform and further economic integration was the price of France refusing to demand adherence to the Conference's terms, and that beyond that there was to be no expectation of "ships flying the tricolor" appearing in case Russia had other plans. While peace was made with Serbia at that table, the stubborn rejection of the Conference's demands shocked and angered many European diplomats. France was the only power satisfied with the religious equality clause of the Ottoman Constitution - Austria moved to quickly sign its Reichstadt Agreement with Russia that it would remain benevolently neutral in any coming conflict, Britain (where the Carnarvon Cabinet was embarrassed by Salisbury's failure, contentious politics at home and were soon to be badly humiliated in Southern Africa) made clear through diplomatic channels that it would abandon its support of the Ottomans and that control of the Dardanelles was its only red line, essentially leaving Russia a free hand to defend the Orthodox faith in Southeast Europe. When Russia announced that the Ottoman rejection of diplomacy voided the Peace of Paris and - most crucially - the ban on a militarized Black Sea, few objected and Germany even offered her vocal support of Moscow's position as leverage for its Scandinavian project [2]. Most crucially, London sat silent. Turkey had officially run out of friends in Europe as she careened towards war with Russia..."

- The Eastern Question


[1] It is really important that this man did not die as in OTL
[2] Okay I've procrastinated this enough I swear this will be the next update
 
Scandinavia: The Birth of Union
"...Bismarck was no stranger to patching together culturally similar yet independent nations into a larger entity, and for his next project after unifying Germany he saw a relatively blank slate that also served him a critical strategic advantage. Sweden and Norway already had the same King - Oscar II of the House of Bernadotte - and though they deployed separate consular services and merchant marines, Europe treated them largely as one entity. Before the First Unification War, it had indeed seemed as if Scandinavism could unite the three Nordic kingdoms under one parliament; dismay in Denmark over Sweden-Norway not coming to her defense against Germany seemed to kill that dream, and by the time of the late 1870s indeed it seemed more likely that Sweden and Norway would drift apart, perhaps even under separate crowns. Oscar II, for his part, was a staunch neutralist and not a man who cared much for the intrigues of the continent. Bismarck, of course, had other plans for him, particularly with an eye towards the potential combined weight of Sweden and Norway's navies under one flag directly to the north of Denmark, which all of Europe understood to be part of the "Iron Triangle" organized by Paris against Germany. Though Denmark alone was no particular threat against the Reich on her own and European cabinets lacked enthusiasm for a general war, Bismarck's gambling days were over. Removing a corner of Bazaine's famed Triangle was something the Iron Chancellor was determined to do to one-up the rival who had somehow not allowed France to go quietly into the night despite her loss on land to Germany's armies..."

- Scandinavia: The Birth of Union
 
what thing? the worst thing the germans would do would waste political capital for scandinavia when the true prize is eastern europe
Their allies are Russia and Italy under reinsurance treaties - unless they want to let Austria attack them first and hope Moscow keeps her promises, which is suicidal for Vienna now, Drang Nach Osten is foreclosed to Berlin in the immediate future
 
The Sun Rises: Japan in the Meiji Era
"...the Satsuma Rebellion's beginning represented the final gasp of the privileged samurai class that had ruled Japan as a feudal state and the nation's emergence under Emperor Meiji as a world power. The crushing of Saigo Takamori's rebellion in 1877 effectively eliminated the samurai forever, though many former samurai would find their way to the top of the zaibatsu syndicates that would soon dominate Japan's industrial economy..."

- The Sun Rises: Japan in the Meiji Era (University of Nanking, 1944)
 
The Orange Sunset: The Expiry of the Netherlands' First Royal House
"...the marriage of King Alexander to Princess Thyra of Denmark was greeted with aplomb across the continent, especially in the two countries most responsible for helping nudge along the negotiations for the match - Britain, which had worked as hard as possible to hold a veto over any match that might pair Alexander to a Prussian or Protestant German match that would drag the indebted Netherlands even further into German influence, and France, a staunch ally of Denmark which also feared an Alexander influenced by Germany. The royal wedding in Amsterdam was a grand affair, visited by some of the most prominent dignitaries in Europe, including Napoleon IV himself, who was close in age to the young King of the Netherlands, and Prince Arthur, the Duke of Edinburgh, well understood to be representing his mother's interests and who shared the grief of Alexander of having both lost their close elder brothers to the same typhoid outbreak five years prior. Secret diplomacy occurred at the wedding, too - Crown Prince Friedrich of Germany met with Arthur and Napoleon surreptitiously to confer with them about the gathering war clouds in Southeast Europe after the Ottoman Empire had thumbed her nose at the Concert of Europe in withdrawing from the Constantinople Conference, and discussions about issues in Africa and Asia were had then too, out of concerns by Germany's client state Cambodia and pseudo-ally Siam about French encroachment in the Laos Highlands and further British expansion in Burma to her west..."

- The Orange Sunset: The Expiry of the Netherlands' First Royal House
 
The Land of Plenty: Southern Africa in the 19th Century
"...but when the cannons rang out in Europe, Britain's attention suddenly turned south - for the collapsing relationship between Molteno and Frere had set the tinderbox for a conflagration in the south of Africa. The Confederation Scheme - at first meant to consolidate the Cape, Natal, and the remaining African kingdoms under British dominion, for even Frere had come to believe that the Free Republics would need to wait - collapsed under protests from the Xhosa who lived in the eastern frontier and would make or break connections between Port Elizabeth and Durban. As the frontier war began to escalate, without British troops, another incident occurred. A misunderstanding on the frontier with Basutoland, resulting in three dead British surveyors and one dead native patrolman, caused Frere to envoke Britain's "protectorate rights" over Basutoland, which he as Governor "controlled" under a treaty from 1868.

The Free Republics, which had signed secret agreements insuring the independence of the "kaffir kingdoms" [1] to keep Britain off its immediate borders, raised small platoons of men to defend Basutoland and maintain her independence. Though the Zulus and Swatis were not directly involved in this conflict, their kings raised armies as well in case a general war broke out across South Africa.

Meanwhile, in London, as news of the burgeoning crisis reached Whitehall, plans were drawn up for the British Army's deployment to the Cape immediately and for the Navy to route further reinforcements to Inhaca Island, despite being aware that Portugal would not receive this news well..."


- The Land of Plenty: Southern Africa in the 19th Century

[1] This word is used in its historical context
 
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