Alternate Electoral Maps III

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by killertahu22, Jan 28, 2019.

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  1. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    A New Sheriff in Town: The B-Movie Actor Takes on Big Government

    In his inaugural address President Johnson pledges to expand the New Frontier to forge a "Great Society" for all Americans to enjoy. LBJ's speech is met with applause from all corners of the nation - in particular from former President John F. Kennedy who happily retires to Massachusetts. Johnson hopes to create even more government programs than Kennedy and ultimately bring forth the long awaited health care reform that had evaded past Presidents since Theodore Roosevelt. With decades of high-level experience and a Democratic Congress, it looks like Johnson's dreams will come true.

    But those fantasies are quickly shattered by a hard, cold reality. Johnson squanders much of his political capital by nominating Abe Fortas to succeed Chief Justice Earl Warren. Fortas is rejected by the Senate over corruption concerns, and Johnson is forced to appoint Associate Justice Arthur Goldberg instead. Worse, a recession materializes throughout 1969 and in Southeast Asia the Communists conquer South Vietnam. In the wake of these emerging problems at home and abroad LBJ's poll numbers begin to suffer. Nonetheless LBJ doggedly pursues a liberal domestic agenda: he creates new protections for the environment and strengthens workplace safety laws. Court rulings demanding racial integration in the South are stringently enforced, and Eisenhower's moderate Republican judges are replaced with progressive Democrats equally committed to the cause of civil rights - if not more so.

    Yet the ongoing recession and public impatience with the high taxes used to pay for government programs lead to political disaster for the Democrats in 1970: for the first time since 1955, the Republicans regain both Houses of Congress in the midterm elections. With LBJ a lame duck, the Great Society and his dreams of passing universal health care are dead in the water. But not all is lost: in the 1972 Republican primaries moderate New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller once again loses the GOP Presidential nomination, this time to California Governor Ronald Reagan. A former B-movie actor who vocally supported Barry Goldwater in 1964, Reagan is widely perceived as a right wing extremist and LBJ ruthlessly exploits that toxic image in a negative TV ad campaign. Additionally, with the economy improving many voters who abandoned the Democrats in 1970 now give LBJ credit for the recovery. Despite his early setbacks LBJ isn't down for the count.

    Reagan hits back against LBJ by distancing himself from Goldwater and projects a sunny, optimistic demeanor. He pledges to restore America to full prosperity, lower taxes, and eliminate government waste. With Alabama Governor George Wallace out of the race after he was paralyzed by an assassin's bullet, Reagan attempts to appeal to his former supporters by attacking "activist judges" who "enforce federal standards on the states" - an obvious dog whistle directed at white racists. This backfires when civil rights leaders blast Reagan for his stance, helping to energize minority turnout for the Democrats. By October, polling puts LBJ ahead of Reagan by 3%.

    But the TV debate is where it would all come to an end for Lyndon B. Johnson. Four years earlier LBJ had impressed the nation by routing George Romney. But in 1972 the President is slow, stumbling, visibly tired and clearly ready to give up the Oval Office. He struggles through questions about the economy and healthcare, while the former actor Ronald Reagan shines on TV. The end result is close, but ultimately Ronald Reagan is elected to be America's 37th President:

    LBJ vs Reagan 1972.png
     
  2. TimTurner Cartoon Phanatic

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    Well it seems every IA CD went D by double digits.
     
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  3. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    @TimTurner, I have another scenario of my own that I've been working on, and I would like your thoughts on it. Could you PM me? I had also tried contacting you over a month ago, but never got a response.
     
  4. TimTurner Cartoon Phanatic

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    I was overwhlemed at the time.
    I'll get a response in soon.
     
  5. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Understood. Though the scenario I'm referring to now is a different one from the previous one, that I had asked about before. I'll give you the details in a PM shortly.
     
  6. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Indeed. I have the Democratic nominee winning Iowa with 66% of the vote, making it right in line with what the NPV most likely would be here.
     
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  7. TimTurner Cartoon Phanatic

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    With 11% margin in IA-4, 20% margin in IA-3, 30% margin in IA-2, and 27% margin in IA-1?
     
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  8. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Sounds about right.
     
  9. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    [​IMG]
    Who can guess what this depicts?
     
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  10. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Nixon vs. Wallace?
     
  11. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Close, but no.
     
  12. PierceJJones Julian Castro revolutionary

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    Nixon v.s some left wing southern populist?
     
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  13. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Nixon isn't involved and the green candidate definitely wouldn't be considered left-wing.
     
  14. Adam The Nerd A weird nerd

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    Uh...Reagan vs Clinton?
     
  15. msmp A Most Ingenious Paradox

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    A map of Thurmond winning AR over Truman in 1948?
     
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  16. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    No, but since you were so close I'll just tell you. it's the 1948 presidential election with all of Truman's votes removed. Dewey wins narrowly over Thurmond.
     
  17. lock A good guy with a bad latitude

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    The spread of kudzu midway through the 20th century?
     
  18. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    With modern demographics, this would probably be a very comfortable Dewey victory.
     
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  19. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Yeah, the numbers Dewey gets out of North and Central Arkansas are pretty crazy, with him breaking 90% in 5 counties and 95% in two of those 5. comparatively Thurmond only breaks 80% in 6 counties and all six of those are sparsely populated.
     
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  20. prime-minister Commander of High Authoritah

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    Illinois House of Senators Election 2018

    (This is based in the same timeline as this post.)
    upload_2019-8-7_17-52-49.png
    Illinois, the largest of the seven republics that comprise the Great Lakes region of the American Federation, is somewhat notorious for corruption in its politics, but the election to the House of Senators, the republic's upper chamber, held in 2018 saw these take centre stage not just in the republic itself, but across the world.

    Since the constitutional revisions passed by then-Prime Minister Everett Dirksen in 1965, Illinois' House of Senators (generally referred to by Illinoisans as the 'upper House' to differentiate it from the Federation-wide Senate) has been democratically elected instead of appointed. However, the reforms greatly benefitted the Republican Party which Dirksen represented; he and his party strongly opposed 'one-man-one-vote' on the basis that their mainly rural voter base could be easily outvoted by voters concentrated in the state's largest city, Chicago. As a result, while the 102 Senators were technically democratically elected, they were elected to represent each county instead of any kind of proportional system, and the county boundary system was set in stone in the laws that comprised the original reform.

    Despite strident opposition from the Labor Party, the left-wing opposition to the Republicans, the reform was well-received by most Illinoisans outside of the largest cities, and many both within and outside the republic saw Dirksen's argument for choosing the system he did. While Labor prime ministers Adlai Stevenson III (1982-87), Paul Simon (1987-94) and Rod Blagojevich (2002-10) all made efforts during their terms to reform the upper House, public sympathy went as far as reducing the Senators' veto powers and shortening their term from the six years Dirksen originally arranged to four to bring it in line with the elections to the House of Delegates (the former achieved by Stevenson, the latter by Simon; Blagojevich was dogged by corruption scandals of his own, which helped stymie his credibility on attempting to reform the upper House).

    By 2018, the Republican government of Bruce Rauner (who had succeeded fellow Republican Mark Kirk as Prime Minister in 2015) had become highly unpopular, whilst his Labor challenger, Tammy Duckworth, was seen as likely to win a landslide; her potential status as the first woman or person of colour to be Illinoisan PM and her generally liberal record appealed to the Labor base, whilst her limited connections with the more unsavory elements of the party helped distance the party from the spectre of Blagojevich and Pat Quinn, its leader from 2009 to 2016. Sure enough, Labor won a landslide in the Illinois House of Commons, taking 157 of the 250 seats, Labor's biggest majority in the lower House since 1948. The result in the upper House, however, got even more attention in the days following the election.

    Labor won the upper House by an even larger margin than the lower House, with a 20.1% margin of victory compared to the 16.3% by which they won the House (mostly due to the lack of votes for minor parties such as the Whigs and Greens; the 'other' vote in the upper House election was 4.7%, less than half the 9.6% for the lower House), by far the biggest Labor win in the popular vote for the upper House since it was founded. Despite this, they gained 34 seats and won just 40 of the 102 upper House seats compared to 62 for the Republicans, allowing the latter to keep a fairly comfortable majority. Labor had won the popular vote in the upper House before, but this was by far the most lopsided result in the chamber's history.

    The international press swarmed on Illinoisan politics as a result, and for once, the republic's PM was not the centre of the controversy so much as the one benefitting from it. Duckworth initially announced she sought to 'find a productive way to reform the House of Senators into a more modern institution that will reflect the will of the people', but John Shimkus, the Republican Leader of the House of Senators (the most senior position in the upper House), repeatedly refused to budge on the issue, defending the importance of the upper House as it stands to the constitutional rights of Illinoisans.

    In response, Duckworth made an aggressive series of policy maneuvers. Since the upper House is not permitted to block an appointee to the Illinois Supreme Court, and due to both the sizeable Labor majority in the lower House and newfound public sympathy for upper House reform, she appointed a liberal justice, Michelle Robinson, to the court once a vacancy opened in May 2019. In July, the court declared the upper House as it stood unconstitutional for its 'purposefully disproportionate representation of voters', and though it did not recommend a new form for the upper House, Illinoisans were not sympathetic to simply abolishing the chamber (as some on the Labor left favored), and it was generally agreed that the best alternative would be to introduce a proportionally elected upper House.

    As of this writing, the exact form of this House has yet to be decided; Duckworth has stated she favors a system with constituencies drawn by an impartial commission with members elected to these constituencies by single transferable vote, whilst others (most notably, Whig leader Bob Dold and Green leader LeAlan Jones) have declared their support for a single proportional constituency comprising the whole country in the style of the Netherlands and Israel and the Republicans have pushed for a FPTP system with higher electorates and fewer members than the lower House. What is known for certain, however, is that the 2018 upper House election is the last to have been held under the system Dirksen designed.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
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