Alternate Electoral Maps III

[Amadeus]

Once is Enough: Ford Wins in 1976

In 1976, after the success of the first TV debate between himself and Jimmy Carter, President Ford decides that once is enough and he doesn't debate Carter a second time. Thus he never makes the infamous "Soviet domination" gaffe that halted his momentum and Ford narrowly defeats Carter.

View attachment 473625

Yet Ford's term quickly proves to be a disaster. Obstructed by an increased Democratic majority in Congress, Ford accomplishes little in domestic matters as inflation and gas prices climb to unbearable limits. On the advice of Henry Kissinger, Ford pressures the Shah to crack down on internal dissent. After this makes the Shah even more unpopular, helping to cause his overthrow in 1978, Ford grants him asylum in the United States. In response Iran overruns the U.S. Embassy and takes Americans hostage. Despite Kissinger's best efforts, Iran refuses to back down and the ensuing crisis lasts until the inauguration of Ford's successor.

In 1980, with the economy now officially in recession, Ford's approval rating plummets to 34%. California Governor Ronald Reagan defeats Vice-President Bob Dole in the Republican primaries, but he decisively loses to Democratic New York Governor Hugh Carey in the general election.

View attachment 473627

Once is Enough - Part II: The Democratic 1980s

Moments after Carey's inauguration, the American Hostages in Iran are finally released. Ford retires to Michigan where he lives a comfortable post-presidency. In later years historians would re-evaluate his pardon of Nixon and praise his remarkable comeback victory in 1976, but nonetheless Ford's legacy would be that of a below average President due to his poor handling of America's declining economy and the Iran Hostage Crisis. But for the time being, the 1980s signal a chance to move on into an era of peace and prosperity. Working closely with the Democratic Congressional leadership, Carey enacts an economic stimulus and replaces Ford's conservative Federal Reserve Chairman with the liberal Paul Volcker. By late 1982 the recession is over and the economy is improving. Yet Republicans still make major gains in the 1982 midterms. One major defeat for the Democrats is in Carey's home state of New York, where Governor Mario Cuomo loses to Republican Congressman Jack Kemp.

In 1983, it's not clear who will win the next Presidential election. Carey is widely expected to be his party's nominee without much opposition. But the Republican nomination is wide open. Despite his defeat in 1980, Reagan remains popular with conservatives and opinion polling shows him trailing Carey by only 3%. In November 1983 Reagan declares his candidacy. Other candidates are Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, former Secretary of State George Bush, Connecticut Senator Lowell Weicker, and perennial candidate Harold Stassen. Former Vice-President and current Governor of Kansas Bob Dole declines to run, preferring to wait until 1988. The clear frontrunner is Reagan, but Baker is an attractive candidate to many Republicans who remain bitter over 1980. In the Iowa caucus Baker upsets Reagan, who then fires his campaign manager and defeats Baker in New Hampshire. In both contests, despite a massive fundraising effort Bush loses badly due to his baggage from the Ford years (when he was strongly connected with the foreign policy crises of the 1970s), as well as his own awkwardness on the campaign trail. At the 1984 Republican convention Reagan chooses Baker as his running mate and they join forces to take the fight to the Democrats.

In the general election, Carey leads in almost all opinion polls. With the economy booming and America at peace, most Americans refuse to change course. Further, at age 72 many doubt that Reagan is up to the job of being President. To fight against this perception Reagan campaigns aggressively around the nation, hoping to demonstrate his stamina and mobilize conservative opposition to Carey. Reagan is popular enough in the the West, the Plains states, and the South to stay just barely above 100 electoral votes. Yet Reagan's charisma isn't enough to overcome Carey who wins a second term in a landslide.

 

[Amadeus]

Once is Enough - Part II: The Democratic 1980s

Moments after Carey's inauguration, the American Hostages in Iran are finally released. Ford retires to Michigan where he lives a comfortable post-presidency. In later years historians would re-evaluate his pardon of Nixon and praise his remarkable comeback victory in 1976, but nonetheless Ford's legacy would be that of a below average President due to his poor handling of America's declining economy and the Iran Hostage Crisis. But for the time being, the 1980s signal a chance to move on into an era of peace and prosperity. Working closely with the Democratic Congressional leadership, Carey enacts an economic stimulus and replaces Ford's conservative Federal Reserve Chairman with the liberal Paul Volcker. By late 1982 the recession is over and the economy is improving. Yet Republicans still make major gains in the 1982 midterms. One major defeat for the Democrats is in Carey's home state of New York, where Governor Mario Cuomo loses to Republican Congressman Jack Kemp.

In 1983, it's not clear who will win the next Presidential election. Carey is widely expected to be his party's nominee without much opposition. But the Republican nomination is wide open. Despite his defeat in 1980, Reagan remains popular with conservatives and opinion polling shows him trailing Carey by only 3%. In November 1983 Reagan declares his candidacy. Other candidates are Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, former Secretary of State George Bush, Connecticut Senator Lowell Weicker, and perennial candidate Harold Stassen. Former Vice-President and current Governor of Kansas Bob Dole declines to run, preferring to wait until 1988. The clear frontrunner is Reagan, but Baker is an attractive candidate to many Republicans who remain bitter over 1980. In the Iowa caucus Baker upsets Reagan, who then fires his campaign manager and defeats Baker in New Hampshire. In both contests, despite a massive fundraising effort Bush loses badly due to his baggage from the Ford years (when he was strongly connected with the foreign policy crises of the 1970s), as well as his own awkwardness on the campaign trail. At the 1984 Republican convention Reagan chooses Baker as his running mate and they join forces to take the fight to the Democrats.

In the general election, Carey leads in almost all opinion polls. With the economy booming and America at peace, most Americans refuse to change course. Further, at age 72 many doubt that Reagan is up to the job of being President. To fight against this perception Reagan campaigns aggressively around the nation, hoping to demonstrate his stamina and mobilize conservative opposition to Carey. Reagan is popular enough in the the West, the Plains states, and the South to stay just barely above 100 electoral votes. Yet Reagan's charisma isn't enough to overcome Carey who wins a second term in a landslide.

View attachment 473858

Once is Enough - Part III: You Only Live Thrice

With an increased Congressional majority, Carey pushes through healthcare reform and a liberal overhaul of America's tax code. Although the Republicans make gains in the 1986 midterms, the Democrats retain both houses of Congress. By 1988, with the economy strong and President Carey a popular incumbent, Vice-President Lloyd Bentsen has a good chance of winning a third consecutive term for the Democrats. But many Americans want change after eight years of Carey, and the Republicans hope that former Vice-President and current Governor of Kansas Bob Dole can bring that change. However Dole's lack of charisma and gaffe-prone tendencies hurt his case, and in the TV debates he decisively loses to the articulate, gentlemanly Bentsen. As the economy hums along and the nation remains at peace, most Americans decide to stick with the status quo. The Democrats sweep all regions of the country in the electoral college - with the exceptions of Dole's native farm belt and the Rocky states.

 

[Amadeus]

In War and In Peace - Hughes' Victory in 1916

While campaigning for President in 1916, Charles Evans Hughes doesn't snub popular California Governor Hiram Johnson. Instead, he meets with Johnson who agrees to give Hughes his full support. On election day, Hughes wins California and New Hampshire - where Johnson's progressive supporters on the East Coast turn out to vote for the Republican nominee. Despite Wilson's best efforts, and his own victory in the popular vote, he is defeated 259 to 272 in the electoral college.

Wilson plans to appoint Hughes Secretary of State and resign along with Vice-President Marshall, which would allow Hughes to take office in November 1916. But this scheme is never enacted after Wilson runs into the opposition of Marshall and Speaker of the House Champ Clark. Wilson does what he can to build up America's navy and maintain diplomatic channels with Germany, but as a lame duck there's little he can do. Hughes is sworn in on March 4, 1917, and only a month later news of the Zimmerman Telegraph and Germany's resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare reaches Washington. An outraged Hughes asks Congress for a declaration of war, and the United States enters the Great War as a full member of the Entente. Hughes resists pressure to persecute German-American culture and suspend civil liberties, although he is criticized for implementing a draft. A year and a half later an armistice brings the war to a close - but not before the Democrats can sweep the 1918 midterm elections.

Hughes travels to the Versailles Peace Conference along with leading Congressional Democrats - hoping to get the majority of Americans behind the peace. Hughes insists on both a League of Nations to ensure post-war stability, as well as punishing terms for Germany. Hughes returns home a hero and the Treaty of Versailles passes Congress with reservations, leading America into the League of Nations. But as the economy sours and German Americans grow angry at Hughes' peace terms, 1920 looks dismal for the GOP. After three years of writing, teaching, and public speaking, former President Woodrow Wilson campaigns for the 1920 Democratic Presidential nomination by promising to restore the economy and touting that, "he would've kept us out of war." Wilson is nominated and chooses his former Secretary of War, Newton Baker, as VP. With Vice-President Charles Fairbanks having died in 1918, President Hughes taps Ohio Senator Warren Harding as his new running mate. Hughes boasts of his foreign policy accomplishments and his support for the recently passed 19th amendment giving women the right to vote. But this isn't enough to overcome the poor economy and Hughes unpopularity with Irish, Polish, and German Americans. The Democratic ticket wins decisively, bringing Wilson back to power for a second non-consecutive term.

 

[MorganKingsley]

I was reading some NoSleep stories and found a story where Carter won a second term because Bush ran a terrible campaign and had to deal with opposition from Anderson, and the map above shows a second Carter victory, decisively enough to not only win by a bigger electoral vote in 1976, but also win the popular vote by about 1 or 2.

*Flip Colorado and Connecticut and that is the true map

 

[Amadeus]

A Rainy Day in Dallas - JFK Vs Goldwater in 1964

As President Kennedy's plane lands in Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, a sudden and unexpected rain shower pours onto the city. In a last minute change of plans JFK and the First Lady ride through Dallas in a closed limousine. While the President's motorcade passes by the Book Depository Building a frustrated Lee Harvey Oswald tries to kill the President by firing through the window of his car. A single bullet lands in JFK's left leg, but he survives the assassination attempt and Oswald is arrested by the Dallas police.

After recovering from the shooting JFK capitalizes on the resulting boost in his popularity to make an even more aggressive push for civil rights. The legislative fight over the next few months is brutal. But once minor compromises have been made to appease conservative Republicans, Kennedy acquires the votes to break through a Southern filibuster and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is passed. Yet not all is well in John Kennedy's America - with the Republican moderates split between a plethora of candidates, right-wing Senator Barry Goldwater wins the 1964 GOP Presidential nomination. The general election campaign is an epic clash between the young liberal President and his unapologetically conservative opponent. Friends since their days in the Senate, Kennedy and Goldwater agree to a series of Presidential debates. Goldwater hopes the debates will give him needed exposure, Kennedy plans to demonstrate his youthful vigor and make Goldwater's extremism plain to the American people. As in 1960, it's Kennedy who triumphs on TV - and it's Goldwater who makes embarrassing gaffes and struggles to defend his opposition to the Civil Rights Act. With the economy booming and the vast majority of the nation united behind JFK's New Frontier, 1964 is a blowout for the Democrats:

John F. Kennedy (D-MA): 451 Electoral Votes, 56.4% in the popular vote
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ): 87 Electoral Votes, 43.1% in the popular vote

Goldwater takes the Deep South, Virginia, and three Western states. But otherwise Kennedy sweeps the country. With a large Congressional majority at his back, JFK now has the power to fully implement his vision for America in 1965.

To be continued.

 

[MorganKingsley]

 

[Caprice]

What's the context behind this? I'm guessing this is 1872, but what about it?

 

[Runaway256]

An unsourced statement on Wikipedia says that Victoria Woodhull claimed that she was destined by prophecy to win the 1884 election. Remember, anything off or unrealistic about this map is not an issue. It was destiny.

Victoria Woodhull (ER-NY)/Vacant (201 EVs)
Grover Cleveland (D-NY)/Thomas Hendricks (D-IN) (165 EVs)
James Blaine (R-ME)/John Logan (R-IL) (35 EVs)

 

[MorganKingsley]

What's the context behind this? I'm guessing this is 1872, but what about it?

A 1868 with Mississippi, Virgnia and Texas added to the map and a improved Seymour performance overall.

 

[Amadeus]

A Rainy Day in Dallas - JFK Vs Goldwater in 1964

As President Kennedy's plane lands in Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, a sudden and unexpected rain shower pours onto the city. In a last minute change of plans JFK and the First Lady ride through Dallas in a closed limousine. While the President's motorcade passes by the Book Depository Building a frustrated Lee Harvey Oswald tries to kill the President by firing through the window of his car. A single bullet lands in JFK's left leg, but he survives the assassination attempt and Oswald is arrested by the Dallas police.

After recovering from the shooting JFK capitalizes on the resulting boost in his popularity to make an even more aggressive push for civil rights. The legislative fight over the next few months is brutal. But once minor compromises have been made to appease conservative Republicans, Kennedy acquires the votes to break through a Southern filibuster and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is passed. Yet not all is well in John Kennedy's America - with the Republican moderates split between a plethora of candidates, right-wing Senator Barry Goldwater wins the 1964 GOP Presidential nomination. The general election campaign is an epic clash between the young liberal President and his unapologetically conservative opponent. Friends since their days in the Senate, Kennedy and Goldwater agree to a series of Presidential debates. Goldwater hopes the debates will give him needed exposure, Kennedy plans to demonstrate his youthful vigor and make Goldwater's extremism plain to the American people. As in 1960, it's Kennedy who triumphs on TV - and it's Goldwater who makes embarrassing gaffes and struggles to defend his opposition to the Civil Rights Act. With the economy booming and the vast majority of the nation united behind JFK's New Frontier, 1964 is a blowout for the Democrats:

View attachment 476168

John F. Kennedy (D-MA): 451 Electoral Votes, 56.4% in the popular vote
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ): 87 Electoral Votes, 43.1% in the popular vote

Goldwater takes the Deep South, Virginia, and three Western states. But otherwise Kennedy sweeps the country. With a large Congressional majority at his back, JFK now has the power to fully implement his vision for America in 1965.

To be continued.

Once Upon a Time at the Ballot Box: A Tale of a Cowboy, a Mormon, and a Southern Segregationist

JFK's second term sees the full implementation of his domestic policies and a period of relative peace abroad. Congress passes Kennedy's tax cut and approves Medicare, Medicaid, and the Voting Rights Act. Congress also enacts the Job Corps and Head Start programs in order to combat poverty. With South Vietnam on the brink of collapse, Secretary of Defense Robert F. Kennedy negotiates a ceasefire and takes up a British proposal to create a neutral government in Vietnam. President Kennedy authorizes a limited bombing run against strategic targets in Vietnam, backing up America's diplomatic hand with military force - and the threat of further intervention. After a period of intense diplomacy the plan is adopted by North and South Vietnam in 1965 and an all-out American war in Southeast Asia is narrowly avoided. However, by 1967 violence resumes in Vietnam and Saigon falls to the Communists after Kennedy leaves office. In 1966 President Kennedy remains very popular, but the Republicans make a resurgence in the midterm elections.

In 1968 the 51 year old John F. Kennedy serves out his final year as President of the United States. He signs the Housing Act of 1968, the landmark SALT I arms control treaty with the Soviet Union, and the Gun Control Act of 1968 in the aftermath of Martin Luther King's assassination. With a roaring economy at his back and JFK's approval ratings at 60%, Vice-President Lyndon Johnson of Texas has high hopes for 1968. He easily wins the Democratic Presidential nomination and chooses his friend Hubert Humphrey as his running mate. With former Vice-President Richard Nixon retired from politics for good, Michigan Governor George Romney emerges as the GOP's standard bearer. Disgusted with both parties, Alabama Governor George Wallace pulls the trigger on a segregationist third party candidacy.

The Presidential election of 1968 is one of the most unique and dynamic in recent memory - a battle between the tall Texan cowboy, the first ever Mormon to be nominated on a major party ticket, and a populist segregationist. LBJ touts the strong economy and promises to continue President Kennedy's New Frontier. Romney reminds voters of the riots and disorder that occurred during Kennedy's second term and makes the case for change. For his part Wallace hopes to deadlock the electoral college and play kingmaker in the House of Representatives. As in 1960 and 1964 TV plays a critical role: Wallace is excluded from the debates, depriving him of a major platform. While Romney expects to out-do LBJ on the debate stage, he shocks the nation with his awkward responses to policy questions and a mind-boggling gaffe about arm control, saying, "you know, some of the nicest people are Communists." In contrast, the calm and articulate Johnson is the clear winner. On election day, Romney and Wallace don't stand a chance:

Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX): 313 Electoral Votes, 46.8% in the popular vote
George Romney (R-MI): 178 Electoral Votes, 41.4% in the popular vote
George Wallace (I-AL): 47 Electoral Votes, 11.5% in the popular vote

 

[jack_donaghy_is_the_shado]

I'm glad to see a 2 term JFK presidency that didn't end terribly. Nice job!

Shame about MLK though.

 

[Amadeus]

I'm glad to see a 2 term JFK presidency that didn't end terribly. Nice job!

Shame about MLK though.

Thanks! And MLK's legacy will continue through the Presidency of LBJ. Stay tuned!

 

[CT23]

Thanks! And MLK's legacy will continue through the Presidency of LBJ. Stay tuned!

On another note, since the Democrats are more popular in "Once Is Enough" than in OTL, who will the next GOP President be?

On the other hand, you don't have to answer if you're going to continue that TL.

 

[LeinadB93]

The 2018 Solomon Islands state election from Hail, Britannia. The boundaries are OTL Election districts traced into .svg format.

 

[MorganKingsley]

Part 4 of my series of if the house never stayed at 435

633 total / 317 needed to win

Franklin Roosevelt - 359 (56.7 percent) / 41.8 percent popular vote
Alfred Landon - 216 (34.1 percent) / 36.5 percent popular vote
William Borah - 54 (8.1 percent) / 19.8 percent popular vote

A race that was originally going to be a landslide for Roosevelt turned into one that he only sort of barely won. This is due to the third party candidacy of William Borah, who ran with Huey Long as his running mate after a near death experience in 1935, which stole Lousiana and Tennessee from the south, and several other states that were originally going to be pro Roosevelt. In the end, he still won, and got over 40 percent of the vote, so even Borah in a amazing run could not end the plans that he had set up for the country.

 

[Tex Arkana]

 

[Tex Arkana]

I was sitting around thinking, as I'm known to do frequently, and I had a thought... what would the national map look like if the Democratic nominee for President won West Virginia by a little over 3% like Joe Manchin did last year? I made this map in response to said thought. the Democratic nominee wins every state, with the closest state being Wyoming, which is probably decided by a near-recount margin in favor of the Democratic nominee. I assumed that the Midwest and Mountain West states would swing dramatically Democratic as they're prone to wild swings, and I also assumed that the urban/suburban vs rural/exurban divide would largely continue, although as compared to 2016 the Democrat does perform dramatically better than Hillary Clinton in rural areas, and even much better than Obama '12, in most cases. suburbs also swing quite dramatically to the left as you would expect, with the Democrat getting 70-80% in areas like NOVA, the Chicago Collar Counties, the Atlanta metro area, etc. I didn't count, but I'm not certain if the Democratic nominee wins a majority of counties even in this massive landslide. does anyone (particularly @Calthrina950 and @TimTurner) want to make any guesses as to the vote by demographic, by congressional district, and so forth? and what about the NPV? I'd guess it's something like 66-33 Dem.

 

[Amadeus]

Forward: An Obama Landslide in 2012

This map shows a hypothetical Obama-Santorum match-up in 2012. Santorum had won the Iowa caucus in 2012, but ultimately lost momentum after New Hampshire. In this scenario, he keeps building support after Iowa and defeats Romney for the nomination. Polling from 2012 showed Obama leading Santorum by 7-8% on average. Santorum, who couldn't even win re-election to the Senate from Pennsylvania in 2006, would be easy to characterize as a right-wing extremist. Obama's own ratings weren't stellar in 2012, but I expect he'd gather enough steam during the general election campaign to decisively defeat Santorum:

For this map I flipped 4.1% from the GOP to the Democrats to get a larger Obama victory. Obama carries every state where he defeated Romney with the addition of North Carolina and Georgia. Obama wins by slightly less of a margin in the electoral college than he did in 2008. But in the popular vote he cruses Santorum 55.2% to 43.1%. In this scenario the Democrats probably retake the House of Representatives and Obama has a more productive second term.

 

[Calthrina950]

I was sitting around thinking, as I'm known to do frequently, and I had a thought... what would the national map look like if the Democratic nominee for President won West Virginia by a little over 3% like Joe Manchin did last year? I made this map in response to said thought. the Democratic nominee wins every state, with the closest state being Wyoming, which is probably decided by a near-recount margin in favor of the Democratic nominee. I assumed that the Midwest and Mountain West states would swing dramatically Democratic as they're prone to wild swings, and I also assumed that the urban/suburban vs rural/exurban divide would largely continue, although as compared to 2016 the Democrat does perform dramatically better than Hillary Clinton in rural areas, and even much better than Obama '12, in most cases. suburbs also swing quite dramatically to the left as you would expect, with the Democrat getting 70-80% in areas like NOVA, the Chicago Collar Counties, the Atlanta metro area, etc. I didn't count, but I'm not certain if the Democratic nominee wins a majority of counties even in this massive landslide. does anyone (particularly @Calthrina950 and @TimTurner) want to make any guesses as to the vote by demographic, by congressional district, and so forth? and what about the NPV? I'd guess it's something like 66-33 Dem.

Well, @Tex Arkana, my guess is that the Democrat would win the white vote here, probably by running up a massive majority among college-educated white voters, and doing much better than Clinton among non college-educated ones, although probably still losing them. Blacks would definitely be over 90% Democratic, Hispanics and Asians over 70% Democratic, and Others well over 60% Democratic. I would guess that the Democrat wins Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Others, and Non-religious/Agnostic voters, while the Republican wins white evangelicals and Mormons. Democratic victory margins in all Southern states except for maybe Virginia and Florida would be provided by nonwhite voters.

What would the electoral map look like here? And did you calculate any statewide percentages?

 

[Tex Arkana]

Well, @Tex Arkana, my guess is that the Democrat would win the white vote here, probably by running up a massive majority among college-educated white voters, and doing much better than Clinton among non college-educated ones, although probably still losing them. Blacks would definitely be over 90% Democratic, Hispanics and Asians over 70% Democratic, and Others well over 60% Democratic. I would guess that the Democrat wins Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Others, and Non-religious/Agnostic voters, while the Republican wins white evangelicals and Mormons. Democratic victory margins in all Southern states except for maybe Virginia and Florida would be provided by nonwhite voters.

What would the electoral map look like here? And did you calculate any statewide percentages?

This is the state map (using reversed colors of course):

Keep in mind there is a fairly substantial third party/independent vote, so some states that are decided by a margin of 20% or more are still shaded as D>50% and so on.