Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by killertahu22, Jan 28, 2019.
646 total electoral votes????
The starting point of divergence is there being no 435 representative problem in 1920, and the house gets to grow as normal, and as a result, by 1930, this would be (roughly) the house size. By the time you get to 2016, it's something like 1250 electoral votes
Or did I do the math wrong, because if so I will change it
There were 531 total Electoral College votes in 1932.
He just said that the POD is the house's representative number not being limited in the early 1920s.
I would love to know the formula used tbh
States shall be apportioned no later than one year following each Census.
States shall be apportioned using the method of Huntington and Hill, with the number of seats set at the minimum number needed so that no state has fewer representatives after apportionment.
New states admitted shall have one representative until the next apportionment.
Districts drawn by states with more than one representative shall be of a contiguous and compact territory, and containing as nearly as practicable an equal number of inhabitants (from the 1911 act).
Basically this means that states don't lose representatives unless they directly lose population, and then as time goes on, the electoral college therefore increases. Then you have to find a suitable population per district, which in this would be roughly Wyoming's population for 1930 (yes I know Nevada had less, but it has so much less that it would be insane, and besides this isn't Wyoming rule), and therefore in the 1930 census, states were determined by their districts with around 228K per seat. In 1920, has the census followed up, it would have been a 48 seat increase, with about 210K people per seat. As decades go on, the amount slowly rises, but the general idea stays the same.
If a state loses population (ie Michigan in 2010 as an example), that state would be the base line for what is going on in that decade. Michigan would lose one seat as a result, and therefore (spoilers) would have only 37 seats as opposed to the 38 of the previous decade. Divide the Michigan population by 37, then that is the base line population of each seat in that decade, around 267K.
If a state barely gained population at all, but is the lowest amount, ie North Dakota in 2000 (DC doesn't count) since all states gained population in the 2000 census, that is the base line for that census. Due to previous decades, the North Dakota barely gaining thing leads to having it record around 262K seats per state, and if you do the math, and divide all states by that amount, then round up (or down) to the nearest whole number, then you get the amount of that state. In this case, North Dakota would have 2.45 representatives, which is 2 rounded down (barely), so 4 electoral votes. West Virginia would show the rounding up side, since it's population would be 6.9 times the amount of 262K, so 7 districts, and therefore 9 electoral votes in the 2004 and 2008 election.
In this case, depending on how you gerrymander your districts, you could end up giving Ross Perot one electoral vote in 1992, by placing in Waldo, Somerset, and Piscataquis counties together, while adding in Knox and Hancock to create a population relatively close to the amount per district usually, and boom, you got Perot winning a district by 32 votes without having to change anything at all.
If you need more clarification, I can give it.
The Kennedy Comeback of 1976:
Continued from "RFK Doesn't Run in 1968."
Although Democratic Party insiders applaud RFK for doing his best in a Republican year, Kennedy himself is crestfallen. After 1972 he is the first Kennedy to lose an election, and he blames himself for failing to convince the public that Vietnam, the "Nixon recession," and Watergate were enough to change course. But only months later the tide would turn in Kennedy's favor: the Senate overwhelmingly votes to create a special Watergate committee, and as a consolation prize for losing the Presidency RFK is offered its Chairmanship. At first Kennedy declines, believing the Chairman shouldn't be a political enemy of Nixon. But his colleagues disagree - with his experience as a Senate lawyer, Attorney General and a distinguished Senator for New York Robert F. Kennedy is the best man for the job. Even many Republicans hope to see Kennedy on the Committee, preferring him over a more liberal partisan such as McGovern or his own brother Ted. For the good of the country Kennedy accepts the position. As the Nixon administration unravels before the eyes of the public Kennedy earns acclaim for his bipartisanship and calm, reassuring leadership. After Nixon's resignation Kennedy is once again the Democratic frontrunner.
But then the unexpected happens: despite a 20 point lead in the polls, RFK is upset by little known Jimmy Carter in the Iowa Caucus. The Kennedy forces regroup and smash Carter in New Hampshire, from there on gaining enough momentum to win the Democratic nomination a second time. RFK chooses Carter as his running mate and the Democratic ticket decisively defeats President Ford in November. While Ford does well in his home base of the Midwest and holds onto some key Southern states, Kennedy's electoral coalition wins enough states in the West, South, and Northeast to bring forth a Democratic victory.
Please like if you want to see the sequel - Duel of the Century: Kennedy vs Reagan in 1980
RFK would’ve wiped Reagan, especially considering Reagan was polling below Carter for an extended period of time in 1980
Duel of the Century: Kennedy vs Reagan in 1980
Continued from "The Kennedy Comeback of 1976"
On January 20, 1977, the United States opens a newer and brighter chapter in it's history. In his inaugural address President Kennedy proclaims an end to the stagnation of the past ten years and promises hope, opportunity, and progress for all Americans. After the scars of war and the bitterness of scandal, Kennedy makes the case for an altruistic government committed to the general welfare of the people. RFK's vision of government is one of vigorous action and bold initiatives - but his administration will also bring an end to the excessive centralization of government and the individual dependency upon federal programs. Kennedy's phrase, "a hand up, instead of a hand out," becomes instantly immortalized in the political lexicon.
In his first hundred days, Kennedy does as he promised: with his support Congress passes an economic stimulus that relieves unemployment through federal works projects while providing tax incentives for the economic development of inner cities. The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Bill passes with real teeth, and with Kennedy's signature the Department of Education and the Department of Energy are born. But RFK also deregulates the trucking industry and the airline industry - foreshadowing the more expansive deregulation under his successors. In 1978 Kennedy appoints Paul Volcker to lead the Federal Reserve and by the end of the year inflation is coming down. With the economy improving and the nation at peace, RFK is a widely popular President and the Democrats actually gain seats in the 1978 midterms.
With an expanded Congressional majority, Congress passes a public option for a universal health care program or "Kennedycare" as it is known. Here Kennedy's successes grind to a halt as throughout 1979 the economy spirals and the United States faces one crisis after another. Volcker had reduced inflation at the price of high interest rates, which make it increasingly difficult for Americans to buy new homes or start new businesses. Millions of people grow angry at the high taxes raised to pay for Kennedy's programs, and the Iranian Revolution leads to an oil shock that pulverizes the American economy. In November 1979 the Iranian Embassy is overrun and Americans are taken hostage. With the economy now in recession, opinion polls show that California Governor Ronald Reagan would defeat President Kennedy if the election were held that day. Kennedy will need a miracle to win re-election.
And that's exactly what happens. Kennedy tirelessly works to negotiate a release of the hostages and he rallies the people with a major speech from the White House as his popularity soars. In 1980 - just in time for election year - the recession ends and unemployment comes down. As more and more voters feel the benefits of Kennedy's economic programs and "Kennedycare," the tide continues to shift in the President's favor. But Ronald Reagan is a formidable opponent - charismatic and articulate, he galvanizes conservative opposition to RFK. The rally-around-the flag effect begins to die down through the summer as the American hostages in Iran remain in captivity. In the fall, polls show Kennedy narrowly leading Reagan by only 3%. If Kennedy loses the upcoming TV debates, he just might be a one term President.
Reagan had debated RFK on TV before back in 1967 when they discussed the Vietnam War. Reagan was widely seen to have won, and in 1980 he walked on stage overconfident in victory. But his feelings were sorely misplaced. Only days before the debate a member of Reagan's team had been caught trying to acquire Kennedy's preparation notes. Reagan immediately fired the culprit and denied his involvement. But the damage was done. Kennedy, hell bent on avenging his 1967 loss, gives his all as a perplexed Reagan appears to stumble in his answers. The following day RFK's lead doubes to 6%. Then three days later the Reagan campaign is dealt a fatal blow: after nearly a year of intense negotiations, Kennedy announces an arms deal that secures the release of the American hostages in Iran. While the Iranian government considered delaying the release of the hostages as a slap in the face to Kennedy, they became convinced that his offer was the best one possible and the Americans are returned home. Reagan does his best to salvage his campaign by attacking the "weak" deal, but in the end his efforts are futile. Reagan does well in the West and manages to score important victories in Iowa, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, and New England, but nonetheless Kennedy's resurrection of the New Deal coalition in the Midwest, South, and Northeast allow him to win re-election by a decisive margin:
Please like if you want to see the sequel - Republican Resurgence: The Right Strikes Back
I decided to make electoral maps for this post.
Businessman H. Ross Perot / Vice Admiral James Stockdale (United We Stand America) 281 EVs
Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Al Gore (Democratic) 162 EVs
President George H. W. Bush / Vice President Dan Quayle (Republican) 95 EVs
President H. Ross Perot / Vice President James Stockdale (United We Stand America) 302EVs
Senator Bob Dole / Secretary Jack Kemp (Republican) 119 EVs
Governor Mario Cuomo / Senator Sam Nunn (Democratic) !!7 EVs
My apologies for originally posting the incorrect title, "On Eagles' Wings," instead of "Duel of the Century" as promised.
Republican Resurgence: The Right Strikes Back
With Kennedy's victory comes an even larger Democratic majority in Congress. Not only had the Democrats managed to retain most of their seats, but in the Senate Elizabeth Holtzmann unseated Jacob Javits and conservative icon Barry Goldwater fell to Democrat Bill Schulz. Upon Kennedy's second inauguration it seems that in the new decade of the 1980s anything is possible. But four years of the White House had taken a toll on Kennedy. While still a healthy and physically active man, RFK is clearly growing tired. Friends could see in his eyes a certain weariness, even a sadness. But Kennedy persists and plans for his second term to be his best. On March 30, 1981 Kennedy leaves the White House to make a speech on the need for greater arms control. But as the President makes his way from his limousine to his speaking engagement, a crazed gunman named John Hinckley Jr. fires into Kennedy's chest. The President dies almost instantly. Hinckley, who'd been inspired by the movie Taxi Driver and Arthur Bremer's attempt to kill Nixon in 1972, is tackled to the ground and later charged and convicted with the murder of the President of the United States.
The new President, Jimmy Carter, is sworn in at his home in Plains, Georgia. Carter immediately flies to Washington where he addresses a mourning nation from the Oval Office. Carter calls upon the American people to remain strong despite their great loss, and to carry on President Kennedy's legacy. Carter then presses Congress to enact gun reform in the wake of Kennedy's death. The Robert F. Kennedy Handgun Violence Prevention Act is passed overwhelmingly and signed into law. Carter's efforts are widely acclaimed and his approval ratings soar to 89%. But soon Carter's popularity plummets as the nation enters yet another recession and the President fumbles his response to the growing crisis. Carter cuts the federal budget, worsening the recession, and makes a poorly received speech blaming growing unemployment on America's greed and calling upon the people to "tighten their belts." To make matters worse Carter's incompetent handling of a 1981 airline trafficker's strike angers both labor and business. The following year, as the nation plunges deeper into recession, the Republicans sweep the midterm elections.
By 1984 the recession is over but the recovery is sluggish. Carter's weak response to the 1983 Beirut Barracks Bombings outrages foreign policy hawks. And although the President takes a brave stance in creating a federal task force dedicated to fighting AIDS, many Evangelicals who supported him as Vice-President now turn their backs. After Ted Kennedy and Gaylord Nelson pass on trying to primary the President, Colorado Senator Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson jump into the race. Tall, dark, and handsome, Hart seems more "Presidential" than Carter and Jackson makes a powerful case against the President's re-election. Although Carter wins the presidential nomination, he is badly damaged by his challengers' attacks. At first it's unclear who his Republican opponent will be. After his 1980 loss Reagan happily retires to sunny California, while his former running mate George Bush also declines to run - instead working to build up his son Jeb's political career in Florida. By the time of the Iowa caucus the leading Republican candidates are Bob Dole, John Heinz, and Lamar Alexander. Dole is the darling of the right. Yet dour, confrontational, and a bland public speaker, Dole is no Ronald Reagan. Dole wins the Iowa caucus with Heinz coming in at a strong second. Young, principled, and compassionate despite his wealthy background, Heinz is a moderate Republican who makes himself acceptable to party conservatives through his support for the Hyde Amendment and opposition to Carter's foreign policy. Heinz pummels Dole in New Hampshire and takes the Republican nomination.
In the fall campaign Carter emphasizes the improving economy while Heinz argues for the need for change. In their first TV debate, Heinz is the clear winner. Although Democrats maintain narrow majorities in both Houses of Congress, on election day Heinz defeats Carter:
I had a go at a Texas House districts map based on a theoretical scenario where the post-2020 redistricting is carried out by an independent commission seeking to minimize the splitting of counties and to create compact seats in urban areas where possible, and the state is allocated 38 House districts. (The results are notional based on the 2018 midterms, with the 37th and 38th districts categorized as gains since both are new, although the 38th covers a notionally Democratic area.)
Moving Forward to the Past: The Republican Landslide of 1988
Although many liberals distrust Heinz's wealthy background, and dissatisfied movement conservatives are skeptical of his youth and Eastern origins, Heinz would emerge as one of America's most admired Presidents since World War II. In 1985 Heinz submits his plan for lower taxes and a balanced budget, which passes with bipartisan support as economic growth finally picks up speed. That same year a new, reforming Soviet leader named Mikhail Gorbachev takes office. Impressed with Gorbachev's promise, Heinz meets his Communist adversary in Geneva where the two lay the groundwork for an improved relationship between East and West. In 1986 Heinz nominates Sandra Day O'Connor to replace outgoing Chief Justice Warren Burger. Not only is she the first ever woman on the Supreme Court, but she is the nation's first female Chief Justice. Afterwards Heinz and Gorbachev meet again in Reykjavik where they negotiate a landmark arms control treaty that eliminates intermediate range missiles in Europe and reduces strategic nuclear weapons by 50%. Although the Democrats make gains in the House that November, they take substantial losses in the Senate as the Republicans regain control of the upper chamber.
1987 is expected to be a year of gridlock, especially now that a looming crisis over Social Security is on the horizon. Social Security had been underfunded during the Ford, Kennedy, and Carter years, and in 1987 it looked like the program might go bankrupt. But Heinz quickly brings both parties together and works out a compromise that passes both Houses overwhelmingly. Heinz also grapples with the burgeoning AIDS crisis. The disease had first been investigated by Carter's administration, and under Heinz a federal survey came back describing the devastating impact of the disease. Heinz recognizes the controversial nature of addressing AIDS, but he also feels a responsibility to act. In the fall of 1987 Heinz addresses the nation in a televised address explaining the nature of the disease and the danger it presents to all Americans. AIDS doesn't just impact gay Americans, but potentially anyone who has a blood transfusion or "irresponsible and unsafe intimate relations." To reflect the conservative nature of the times, Heinz emphasizes his disapproval of the "gay lifestyle" (rhetoric later condemned as prejudiced). Still, Heinz's speech is a major step forward. While Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson blast the President for giving quarter to "subversives and perverts," most Americans approve of Heinz's speech and Congress approves funding for AIDS research and treatment.
With his approval ratings well over 50% in January 1988, Heinz continues to implement his moderate to conservative legislative agenda: he signs the Americans With Disabilities Act and a bill providing compensation for the victims of Japanese-American internment. However he also ramps up the War on Drugs as America's prison population balloons under his tenure. Scholars would later site this as a major failure of Heinz's administration, although the President himself would express no regrets in his memoirs. With the economy booming and the Cold War thawing down, the results of the 1988 election were always to be a foregone conclusion: Heinz crushes his Democratic challenger Gary Hart in a landslide victory. Although Hart is able to hold down the fort in a handful of Democratic bastions in the Midwest, Northeast, and the South, Heinz sweeps the electoral college and a Republican House is elected on his coattails.
I've decided to discontinue this series of maps since twenty years and five elections is long enough for me. But thanks to everyone who liked my posts!
Once is Enough: Ford Wins in 1976
In 1976, after the success of the first TV debate between himself and Jimmy Carter, President Ford decides that once is enough and he doesn't debate Carter a second time. Thus he never makes the infamous "Soviet domination" gaffe that halted his momentum and Ford narrowly defeats Carter.
Yet Ford's term quickly proves to be a disaster. Obstructed by an increased Democratic majority in Congress, Ford accomplishes little in domestic matters as inflation and gas prices climb to unbearable limits. On the advice of Henry Kissinger, Ford pressures the Shah to crack down on internal dissent. After this makes the Shah even more unpopular, helping to cause his overthrow in 1978, Ford grants him asylum in the United States. In response Iran overruns the U.S. Embassy and takes Americans hostage. Despite Kissinger's best efforts, Iran refuses to back down and the ensuing crisis lasts until the inauguration of Ford's successor.
In 1980, with the economy now officially in recession, Ford's approval rating plummets to 34%. California Governor Ronald Reagan defeats Vice-President Bob Dole in the Republican primaries, but he decisively loses to Democratic New York Governor Hugh Carey in the general election.
After about a week or so of planning, I will not start my typing and story of 1936. I think I will probably do one election a week at the rate I am going, and things will slowly come together that way. I will also put 1924, 1928, and 1932 in a document for the entire timeline, that I will update with the previous election every time I create a new one that I will insert the link to at the start of each post. So in 1940, I will add the 1936 part to the document and put it at the start of the election discussion. So with that, expect all of that in the next 1-3 days.
Well hot damn, Reagan loses!
Just wait till you see Part II
Separate names with a comma.