The Wager at Wismar
"...they may have the seas yet, but I have Europe; and when can London ever say that they have had that?"
- Napoleon I
Deep into 1810, two things favorable to France seemed plain: the consolidation of the new Napoleonic order was here to stay, at least for the short and medium term, and the Austrians and Prussians were good enough at math to recognize the hopelessness of their situation if they were to attempt another war. It was obvious in London to the Perceval government that there would be no Fifth Coalition put together and financed to finally defeat the little Corsican; of the non-Ottoman powers, only Sweden, bound to the Continental System and utterly defenestrated on land and at sea, and the fuming Bourbons and Savoys of Sicily and Sardinia, were even remotely aligned with them now. Despite its considerable holes, the Continental System
had succeeded in reducing British trade to Europe, and though a vast overseas network had compensated, exhaustion was beginning to set in amongst many in Cabinet.
The Wismar meeting, then, was meant to be a preliminary negotiation for a ceasefire and little more; London hoped that a full congress of the European powers could be called later and final borders, trade terms and other settlements agreed upon then. Canning chose Wismar for its siting in Mecklenburg, which had had a pre-Napoleonic monarch, and its proximity to Sweden, as he sailed to Gothenburg and then south through the Kattegat on a Swedish vessel under white flag. Talleyrand met him there, and the wily old
Myriades had a plan of his own; he sought to end the war then and there, aware that the longer a stalemate with Britain dragged on, the more antsy other European sovereigns would start to become and the more appetizing a Fifth Coalition would look. Napoleon, in a decision he would later regret, chose not to accompany Talleyrand, seeing the meeting as purely preliminary and meant to decide nothing other than an immediate ceasefire and suspension of hostilities against French and allied shipping on the seas. "We must end their attempts to strangle Europe," he insisted as Talleyrand prepared to leave. "All else can wait."
Talleyrand had different ideas, surprising Canning. The French minister straightforwardly asked for British terms for a bilateral peace a la Amiens; an uneasy ceasefire suited nobody, and it was time to end this war favorably for everyone. Canning was shocked but presented what he viewed as fairly reasonable terms, seeing how France had not scratched Britain at sea since Trafalgar - the immediate cessation of the Continental System blockade, the return of Hannover to its rightful sovereign George III, the evacuation of the Channel ports in Flanders and subsequent return of them to Holland (though no mention was made of Napoleon's brother Louis, whom Britain knew often frustrated his elder brother, stepping down in favor of the House of Orange), and the return of the House of Braganza from Brazil to Portugal, in honor of Britain's long term alliance. In return, Britain would immediately cease its harassment of continental trade and end its blockade of French ports, pay a small indemnity for the shipping intercepted over the past three years (not seven), return some (but not all) seized overseas possessions to France and Holland, and recognize Napoleon and all treaties with foreign powers he had signed (and thus recognize the new states he had established across Europe). The matter of Wellington's expedition in Venezuela and other British encouragements in Spanish America would be negotiated separately with Madrid, and a final congress of Europe would be held at an indefinite date with the other powers to iron out any final disagreements or differences.
Canning took the view that this was an imperfect but satisfactory offer bordering on a
status quo ante; Talleyrand agreed, but carefully gave no assurances to the British Foreign Minister that Napoleon would accept. It was prudent of him not to; for upon arriving back in Paris and presenting the Wismar conference's results, the Emperor was apoplectic. Anything other than a total return to the status quo of Amiens was unacceptable to him; that he would have to give back the port of Anvers, in particular, was outrageous for Britain to demand, to say nothing of welcoming the Braganzas back and needing to find yet another throne for Carlos I, whom he had installed personally. Though Napoleon had considered that Britain was likely to want Hannover back, he was reluctant to give them a continental foothold again where they could threaten the heart of the Confederation of the Rhine or France herself; to have to give
all that up, when Britain hadn't put a single soldier on the European continent in years to fight his armies and sat back in their boats, was absurd. Napoleon then made what came to be known as the Wager at Wismar (even though he wasn't there personally) - he sent counter terms across the Channel, not with Talleyrand but with a minor diplomat, to make sure Britain knew it was meant as a slight. Napoleon's terms demanded the immediate cessation of hostilities, a large indemnity, the return of all overseas possessions seized along with the Bahamas, the return of Wellington's expedition from Venezuela, a reduction in Royal Navy vessels in the Channel, the acceptance of a small tariff on British goods in return for the Continental System's suspension, recognition of all of Napoleon's gains, and the end of the blockade, all to be signed bilaterally, with no future conference or reference to the status of Hannover.
British public opinion was inflamed and Cabinet insulted, and the terms angrily rejected - which was precisely what Napoleon wanted. Declaring that the Wismar demands were unreasonable to impose upon a victorious Emperor, he announced that he was open to peace but that Britain would have to "see the hour for what it is." Hannover was wiped off the map moments later with the stroke of a pen; in a series of quick treaties, Napoleon parceled it up amongst Oldenburg (below the Elbe), Schleswig-Holstein (Lubeck), Mecklenburg, a newly-formed Grand Duchy of Hamburg which was granted to the retiring Jean Lannes, and the vast majority to his brother in Westphalia, which now gained the port of Bremen and most of central Hannover, cementing it as the key state of the Confederation of the Rhine.
George III, not yet entirely consumed by madness, was outraged, and the European powers shocked at Napoleon's callousness in choosing not to seek peace. As a man whom
L'Aigle oft sought to emulate once famously said, the die was now cast...