But if the Franco-Russian peace is solid and reasonably sincere on both sides and the French army is out of Spain then Austrian war with France starts looking a little bit n a suicidal side even without a formal Franco-Russian military alliance. Even taking into an account the Austrian military reforms, its army is still smaller than French (well, unless it’s demobilization went too far) and, if Austria is initiator of a conflict, Russia may enter it on the French side even without a biding military treaty because (unlikely as it is) a significant Austrian success may change a power balance in the Danube-Balkans region to the Russian disadvantage.
L’Aigle Triomphant: A Napoleonic Victory TL
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
More or less, yeah. The best way to describe the geostrategic situation in Europe is this: Prussia is the worst off and the angriest at Napoleon post-Tilsit but can't really do much. Russia isn't a huge fan of Napoleon but has had reasonable enough successes and benefits from its partnership so far that it has no particular incentive, as of late 1809, to change the status quo - nothing has insulted Alexander's ego enough to cause him to plunge them into war. Austria detests Napoleon and his brinkmanship with the Pope is angering Francis but they'd need a partner to conduct an actual war without it being a huge loss.
Everybody is basically waiting to see what happens between France and Britain at this point before anybody makes a move. Its a very fragile peace that could easily break. The OTL post-Vienna Concert of Europe, it is not.
A Season of Joy
A Season of Joy
“…she may be no Josephine, but oh, she is an Empress!”
- Napoleon I
The wedding of Napoleon and Catherine was conducted by proxy before her arrival in Paris to meet her new husband; upon their first meeting in person, Napoleon remarked on her beauty, and she was quoted as quipping in relief “he’s taller and handsomer than I thought!” Their wedding in Notre Dame was a splendid affair on the heels of a private civil ceremony; Empress Catherine was celebrated in effigy throughout France, and even in Russia some relief was allowed at the match, especially when news arrived later in 1810 that she had become pregnant quickly after the wedding. Catherine, despite her initial misgivings, would before long take to the Parisian court life, enjoying her role as purveyor of a lavish lifestyle hosting balls and even currying some level of political influence among a bloc of Russophilic French aristocrats.
It was the other wedding of 1810 that captured the continent’s attention, however, and not in as good a way. The marriage of Maria Augusta of Saxony to Prince Josef Poniatowski, thus guaranteeing their issue would inherit the Duchy of Warsaw (with a Polish Duke) alarmed and angered Russia and Austria alike. Alexander was convinced that Napoleon’s hand was in the matter, especially the speed with which the marriage was announced and consummated. Though any designs on the lands of the Partition were near impossible under the young peace, it nevertheless marked an early breach between Paris and Moscow soon after Tislit and Stockholm; and it came as Napoleon entertained informal discussions with Britain about what a treaty could look like…
Deleted member 143920
The Catherine's initial thought of Napoleon can be forgiven; afterall, he was a Corsican artillery officer who later became Emperor of France. As for their child, I wonder what its name will be?
Maria Augusta may have been 28, but she is nevertheless fertile, so an expectant child should arrive soon. Should Napoleon eventually go to war with Austria again, he could force it to cede the entirety of its previous Polish lands to the Duchy of Warsaw and make Poniatowski and Maria Augusta King and Queen of Poland. As for compensation to Russia, it could annex the remaining lands of the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria which would be the equivalent to the Duchy of Bukovina.
To avoid offending Russian sensibilities, Nap would probably settle for leaving it an expanded Duchy rather than a Kingdom of Poland, but yes
Well thank you! Haha I knew what I needed to cover as I plot out what comes next (we’re in a bit of a holding pattern as I try to solve my Latin American conundrum and how to incorporate that)very good but you leave me hungry with such a short chapteras always, I can't wait to see what happens next, but if Austria decides to go to war against France again, this time it risks balkanization (since Napoleon has no family ties with Austria in this story)
Granted he had no family connections in OTL!1809 either
Can’t wait! Would be interesting to see some form of monarchies endure in Latin America.
Well, in this scenario war started by Austria is not likely because Austria is risking war on two fronts. OTOH, Nappy does not have an obvious reason to go to war just to please the Poles: after all effort spent on getting a reasonably good peace arrangement with Alexander this would simply make no sense. A marriage by itself is not such a big deal as long as this is a Duchy of Warsaw and not something bigger. AFAIK, at that time Alexander did not yet had the ambitious designs regarding the Duchy and the main OTL problem was its ongoing military buildup. Davout was entrusted by Napoleon with the task of organizing the "corps of observation of the Elbe" which he proceed to do with his usual energy and unwillingness to question orders of his boss. Population of the Duchy was 2.8M and initial size of its army was 30,000. In 1809 it was 60,000 and by 1812 it was approximately 100,000. Small wonder that Alexander got nervous. So if in your TL size of the army is kept around 30-40K this would not be considered an offensive move and the Polish-Saxon marriage remains a normal dynastic thing: neither groom nor bride are the revolutionary upstarts and future succession may be considered as a step in a right “backward” direction. Nappy just has to be careful about keeping the Duchy in its present state territorially and militarily.
BTW, if Nappy is trying to make peace with Britain, then war with Russia is even less probable taking into an account Alexander’s anglophila.
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Unless it’s a daughter, there can only be one choice.
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The Wager at Wismar
The Wager at Wismar
"...they may have the seas yet, but I have Europe; and when can London ever say that they have had that?"
- Napoleon I
Deep into 1810, two things favorable to France seemed plain: the consolidation of the new Napoleonic order was here to stay, at least for the short and medium term, and the Austrians and Prussians were good enough at math to recognize the hopelessness of their situation if they were to attempt another war. It was obvious in London to the Perceval government that there would be no Fifth Coalition put together and financed to finally defeat the little Corsican; of the non-Ottoman powers, only Sweden, bound to the Continental System and utterly defenestrated on land and at sea, and the fuming Bourbons and Savoys of Sicily and Sardinia, were even remotely aligned with them now. Despite its considerable holes, the Continental System had succeeded in reducing British trade to Europe, and though a vast overseas network had compensated, exhaustion was beginning to set in amongst many in Cabinet.
The Wismar meeting, then, was meant to be a preliminary negotiation for a ceasefire and little more; London hoped that a full congress of the European powers could be called later and final borders, trade terms and other settlements agreed upon then. Canning chose Wismar for its siting in Mecklenburg, which had had a pre-Napoleonic monarch, and its proximity to Sweden, as he sailed to Gothenburg and then south through the Kattegat on a Swedish vessel under white flag. Talleyrand met him there, and the wily old Myriades had a plan of his own; he sought to end the war then and there, aware that the longer a stalemate with Britain dragged on, the more antsy other European sovereigns would start to become and the more appetizing a Fifth Coalition would look. Napoleon, in a decision he would later regret, chose not to accompany Talleyrand, seeing the meeting as purely preliminary and meant to decide nothing other than an immediate ceasefire and suspension of hostilities against French and allied shipping on the seas. "We must end their attempts to strangle Europe," he insisted as Talleyrand prepared to leave. "All else can wait."
Talleyrand had different ideas, surprising Canning. The French minister straightforwardly asked for British terms for a bilateral peace a la Amiens; an uneasy ceasefire suited nobody, and it was time to end this war favorably for everyone. Canning was shocked but presented what he viewed as fairly reasonable terms, seeing how France had not scratched Britain at sea since Trafalgar - the immediate cessation of the Continental System blockade, the return of Hannover to its rightful sovereign George III, the evacuation of the Channel ports in Flanders and subsequent return of them to Holland (though no mention was made of Napoleon's brother Louis, whom Britain knew often frustrated his elder brother, stepping down in favor of the House of Orange), and the return of the House of Braganza from Brazil to Portugal, in honor of Britain's long term alliance. In return, Britain would immediately cease its harassment of continental trade and end its blockade of French ports, pay a small indemnity for the shipping intercepted over the past three years (not seven), return some (but not all) seized overseas possessions to France and Holland, and recognize Napoleon and all treaties with foreign powers he had signed (and thus recognize the new states he had established across Europe). The matter of Wellington's expedition in Venezuela and other British encouragements in Spanish America would be negotiated separately with Madrid, and a final congress of Europe would be held at an indefinite date with the other powers to iron out any final disagreements or differences.
Canning took the view that this was an imperfect but satisfactory offer bordering on a status quo ante; Talleyrand agreed, but carefully gave no assurances to the British Foreign Minister that Napoleon would accept. It was prudent of him not to; for upon arriving back in Paris and presenting the Wismar conference's results, the Emperor was apoplectic. Anything other than a total return to the status quo of Amiens was unacceptable to him; that he would have to give back the port of Anvers, in particular, was outrageous for Britain to demand, to say nothing of welcoming the Braganzas back and needing to find yet another throne for Carlos I, whom he had installed personally. Though Napoleon had considered that Britain was likely to want Hannover back, he was reluctant to give them a continental foothold again where they could threaten the heart of the Confederation of the Rhine or France herself; to have to give all that up, when Britain hadn't put a single soldier on the European continent in years to fight his armies and sat back in their boats, was absurd. Napoleon then made what came to be known as the Wager at Wismar (even though he wasn't there personally) - he sent counter terms across the Channel, not with Talleyrand but with a minor diplomat, to make sure Britain knew it was meant as a slight. Napoleon's terms demanded the immediate cessation of hostilities, a large indemnity, the return of all overseas possessions seized along with the Bahamas, the return of Wellington's expedition from Venezuela, a reduction in Royal Navy vessels in the Channel, the acceptance of a small tariff on British goods in return for the Continental System's suspension, recognition of all of Napoleon's gains, and the end of the blockade, all to be signed bilaterally, with no future conference or reference to the status of Hannover.
British public opinion was inflamed and Cabinet insulted, and the terms angrily rejected - which was precisely what Napoleon wanted. Declaring that the Wismar demands were unreasonable to impose upon a victorious Emperor, he announced that he was open to peace but that Britain would have to "see the hour for what it is." Hannover was wiped off the map moments later with the stroke of a pen; in a series of quick treaties, Napoleon parceled it up amongst Oldenburg (below the Elbe), Schleswig-Holstein (Lubeck), Mecklenburg, a newly-formed Grand Duchy of Hamburg which was granted to the retiring Jean Lannes, and the vast majority to his brother in Westphalia, which now gained the port of Bremen and most of central Hannover, cementing it as the key state of the Confederation of the Rhine.
George III, not yet entirely consumed by madness, was outraged, and the European powers shocked at Napoleon's callousness in choosing not to seek peace. As a man whom L'Aigle oft sought to emulate once famously said, the die was now cast...
Sometimes a bad peace is better than any war. Hopefully Nappy is playing this right.
Well, of course the presented British plan is insulting: they are offering absolutely nothing which they can’t revoke in 5 minutes (as already was the case with Amiens) while requiring very serious long-term concessions like the issue of the Channel ports and return of Hanover. Napoleon’s counter-demands, except for refusal to discuss Hanover are seemingly more reasonable (well, only comparing to the British demands 🥲). Basically, it looks like the Brits intentionally proposed conditions that would be considered humiliating expecting that they will be rejected and the hostilities continued.In other words, looks like these proposals are just a PR for the domestic consumption.
Not sure why Nappy would have to send the counter-offer with his Foreign Minister: if negotiations are looking as a multi-step back and forth, then the top diplomats don’t have to serve as the errand boys and a normal way, if both sides are willing to negotiate, would be to discuss the counter-proposal and send counter-counter-proposal, etc. The only other way was to have an ongoing meeting of the top diplomats who are sending updates to their government, receiving instructions and keep talking. In your scenario the Canning delivers pretty much a humiliating ultimatum (needless to say that perception of “reasonable” is “everything tgat Britain wants”), goes home without any assurances that it is going to be accepted and then Britain explodes with rage when reaction is not a submission. Very realistic (unfortunately). Nappy’s reaction on the British reaction is also realistic. One has to wonder why they even tried. 😂
Oldenburg part is neat: the Duke is Alexander’s relative and OTL annexation of his land was one of the items on Alexander’s “why I am pissed with Nappy” list.
OTOH, why the European countries are shocked with Nappy and not the Brits who brought the unrealistic demands?
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Well, the peace on the British terms would be pretty much impossible, sounding as a complete surrender with the long-term damaging obligations and pretty much nothing in return.
Deleted member 143920
Interesting update.
Perhaps, as for further territorial changes, he could cede the French occupied territories in Italy east of the Alps (Piedmont, Liguria and Parma) to the Kingdom of Italy (while obviously keeping Savoy and Nice). He could also incorporate the Rhodanic Republic as well.
I wonder what the next update will be now that a potential peace has been refused.
You get peace in return. That's not nothing.
If the alternative is British propaganda and money convincing Austria/Russia/Prussia to gang up on the French and beat them then the French will be wishing they'd taken a bad peace.
The problem is that you are not getting peace with any kind of a guarantee. France evacuates the ports in Flanders including Antwerp on which big money and efforts had been spent to make it again a major port but Britain is not reducing its naval presence in the Channel (which means that it can return to its activities at any moment). Britain gets Hanover and its client is reinstalled in Portugal which provided two potential landing areas. France is not getting back all its colonies but abolishes the CS to restore the British trade with the continent. Basically, Britain is unwilling to give away anything of substance while demanding the big concessions. Recognition of Nappy and his relatives is as worthless as the XVIII century official recognition of Russia as an empire: just as empty (even if flattering) sound.
I’m afraid that you are overestimating the British influence on the European affairs: Britain could not convince anybody to go to war unless there were Austrian, Prussian or Russian own interests involved. Even worse, if (as seems to be the case in this TL) French-Russian alliance is really strong and not just a shotgun marriage as in OTL, neither Austria nor Prussia nor both of them are going to risk a war regardless of the amount of British propaganda and subsidies: it would be simply and plain suicidal.
As for Russia, in OTL Alexander was acting mostly on (a) his personal hatred and (b) very narrow interests of a small fraction of the noble class but not based upon broader Russian economic interests or even broader domestic situation (the lower classes gained from the low bread prices and quite a few nobles had manufactures on their estates and benefited from absence of the British competition). The American ships had been picking up what the Brits dropped in the terms of a transit trade.
Glad somebody picked up on the Oldenburg sleight of hand 😉
I’d say the exhausted European countries that have had the stuffing kicked out of them for a decade were perhaps hoping rather than expecting a peace, and likewise hoping Napoleon was as exhausted as they were and would just take a white peace
Not with the British.
That would still happen (Amiens is a very bad precedent for the British)