The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
I know its not going to happen but I really want the to Pope call a crusade against Aflaq.
I imagine they'll try, but since the Maghreb states are fully independent when they launch their war, instead of being under the clear direct control of Aflac (as Austria was under Hitler's control by the time any invading happened) it will be much harder.
Tunisia will be interesting. The Baathists may have killed the Bey and seized the airwaves but it is not said they have seized the country.
The earlier riots may have helped a bit there. Also many Tunisian elites and regular citizens will be wary of war with Italy. The murder of he Bey could be a rallying cry too for antiUAR sentiment. It may not be enough on its own, but if any opposition can holdout it could change the dynamic.
And Mussolini at least will be quick to send forces to Tunis; his pride and PR will not allow him to leave the Italian minority there 'at the mercy of the mob.'
So Italy takes a three pronged approach? 1. Secure Tunis to save settlers; and seek alliance with any Bey loyalists? 2. Reinforce Libyan Garrison and seek rollback of Egyptian forces. 3. Reinforcements to Israel.
The earlier riots may have helped a bit there. Also many Tunisian elites and regular citizens will be wary of war with Italy. The murder of he Bey could be a rallying cry too for antiUAR sentiment. It may not be enough on its own, but if any opposition can holdout it could change the dynamic.
And Mussolini at least will be quick to send forces to Tunis; his pride and PR will not allow him to leave the Italian minority there 'at the mercy of the mob.'
So Italy takes a three pronged approach? 1. Secure Tunis to save settlers; and seek alliance with any Bey loyalists? 2. Reinforce Libyan Garrison and seek rollback of Egyptian forces. 3. Reinforcements to Israel.
Oh boy, looks like Aflaq will follow in the glorious footsteps of the late Grand Mufti in the great jihad against the forces of Judeo Fascist Occidental Imperialists! May his coming martyrdom be rewarded by becoming the rallying point for edgylords for generations to come!
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Personally I think Italian support for Israel will mostly be air support and war material until Libya(and possibly Tunis) is secured. It was mentioned earlier that Italy cut military funding due to the cost of the war in China, so Mussolini might not be eager to jump into a multi front war.
Pius XII wasn't really very pro-Jews pope. Generally he might condemn Aflaq's military actions but hardly more.
Some might try say that but can't do that such way that others would believe or care. Maghrebian Arabs begun their own revolts and Aflaq hadn't there any direct power. Egypt participated voluntarely. Yemen just joined altough it could had work otherwise. Third Holocaust begun from Oman with support of Oman officials and government and Aflaq couldn't had done anything if officials and government would have care investigate "blood libel" shit and not slaughter all Jews in Oman.
Just wondering how many contries will criminalise Holocaust denialism ITTL.
Good point.
Italy will certainly have a reserve of veterans to draw from with the China war only three years done.
Balbo seems the likely choice to be sent to lead the Italian Forces in Africa after his record as commander in China.
Well in the case of Oman they are part of the UAR, after Aflaq supported the rebels against the Sultan. So the Omani peopel may claim it was imperialism and treachery by the rebel leadership that brought them into the UAR.
As for Egypt it seems Nasser has a separate legacy from Aflaq with people questioning how much he actually knew of the Blood Libel incident.
The post has it in there that Aflaq's state is 'supposedly' united. So I still think a lot of division will rear its head after the tide turns against Aflaq rather than fight to the bitter end like his loyalists seem to being built up for.
I take it the Soviet Ambassador's response could be summed up as "can you come up with a coherent narrative at least".
Frankly, i suspect that Kruschev will keep the Soviets outta the Arab furball as long as possible.....But not without profitting like a war monger by selling and testing plenty of Russian War material during the conflict.....
Sadly, it seems likely that he's going to get the hardliner Stalinist unhappy that he didn't did more, and get replaced for a hardliner...one that will think that with the losses and stress of the Second Arabian War, its a good time to try to get those East European nations into the "Soviet Fold"....causing a conflict between the Roman Alliance and the Soviet Union.....
Sadly, it seems likely that he's going to get the hardliner Stalinist unhappy that he didn't did more, and get replaced for a hardliner...one that will think that with the losses and stress of the Second Arabian War, its a good time to try to get those East European nations into the "Soviet Fold"....causing a conflict between the Roman Alliance and the Soviet Union.....
Libyan 'Arabs' (many wouldn't identify with the term) are treated equally in theory to colonists and on the whole, treated the same as Italians with a few flashpoints the state condemns (imagine American blacks today). A big thing in state propaganda is that the Italians and Libyans are both 'Romans'. However, 'backward Arabs' (i.e. Arabs who overwhelmingly live in the interior desert and refuse to integrate into Italian society) are roundly mocked. At the same time, the regime doesn't care that some Arabs in the middle of nowhere are grumbling as long as the oil gets out of the ground up north. Young Arabs who stayed in the city generally adopted Italian forms of life but have a mosque instead of a church. They speak Italian, eat pizza and talk about who the most attractive actress is with their Sicilian colleagues. In other words, they're well integrated and are hard to tell apart from the Italians. If an Imam starts preaching Islamism or Pan-Arabism, his fellow Arabs will report him immediately, and the OVRA will send him to prison in a heartbeat. Young Arabs are mandated to join the Fascist school programs alongside their Italian and Jewish fellows, so the social integration in Libya is surprisingly strong. It's one of the few places you'd see a church, synagogue and mosque at the same time - which is great Fascist propaganda when they get accused of being bigots.
Eritreans and Somalians are the next tier. Both are generally tolerated (as in how one would 'tolerate' a colleague), but they are nowhere near as integrated into the population as in Libya. At the same time, the Italians have an interest in being nice to these groups because of the Ethiopians.
Ethiopians got the short stick. They are highly suspected by settler populations (and those settler who would move to the area are generally more racist than the more casual migrants to Libya). The hatred by the settlers is exceeded by the Eritrean and Somalian troops the Italians employ. Taking their cue from British divide and conquer strategy, they play on fears of a resurgent Ethiopia to scare their ancient rivals into doing their dirty work in Abyssinia - which is broadly successful, for now.
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There have been quite a few pre-war changes compared to OTL already you know.
Italy has already been attacked. So it's hardly a "War of choice" for them either which way.
Speaking of China: I'd expect Chiang to side with the RA and the West in this war. I know I know, China is in ruins, rebuild, recover, etc etc. Still that doesn't mean he can't make a nominal Declaration of War and send some token forces, especially if he can get their equipment paid for by LendAndLease 2.0 . Gets him goodwill, pays pack a Debt of Honor to Mussolini and gets some combat experience regarding changes in technology since the Chinese Civil War.
A small fraction of what it's going to be.
In terms of actual numbers, about a thousand died in Israel in the first few days of chaos. Roughly the same number died in all the British protectorates, which simply stood no chance against Aflaq. The real bloodbath was actually in Latakia, where about five thousand have died on both sides as the UAR push in.
Hm. With the USA staying out of this, it will be up to the European powers and Turkey to deal with this. Given the disparity in equipment, that still seems like a reasonably easy if bloody-in-the-short-term war. Since this will almost guarantee that Italy, Spain and Turkey make land grabs, I'd expect the old colonial powers to at the least create 'protectorates' and shelve any ideas regarding any sort of devolution in power in Aden, Algeria and other such places, as to prevent the fascists alone from gaining from this war.
I would guess that at least in some states, the people who identify as Berber or some manner of Phoenician/Levantine, be it after the war or already, will at least try to claim that it was a 'loud Aabic minority, who happened to be in power at the time' or a 'now-dead arab majority', to which they themselves are of course in no way affiliated.
I would guess that at least in some states, the people who identify as Berber or some manner of Phoenician/Levantine, be it after the war or already, will at least try to claim that it was a 'loud Aabic minority, who happened to be in power at the time' or a 'now-dead arab majority', to which they themselves are of course in no way affiliated.
Besides, the fact Nasser said "Egypt", even if ignored at the time, when announcing the nationalization of the Suez Canal suggests he has his own agenda seperate from that of Aflaq.
I know its not a war of choice. What I mean is that I believe the Italian military will move to secure and defend their colonies before committing major resources and manpower to another major front.