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Jcw3

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Okay, I fixed the population growth model so that it wasn't quite so crazy.

Revised (and some new) populations are as follows:

Much better. I've been a fan of your work since the 1492 Ringworld series, and this is just more awesome. Great work, and I appreciate your dedication.
 
Okay, I fixed the population growth model so that it wasn't quite so crazy.

Revised (and some new) populations are as follows:

India: 3.83 Billion
China: 2.25 Billion
USA: 537 Million
Indonesia: 681 Million
Brazil: 531 Million
Nigeria: 827 Million
Mexico: 381 Million
Egypt: 421 Million
Japan: 285 Million
Bangladesh: 621 Million
Ethiopia: 970 Million
Pakistan: 735 Million
Turkey: 207 Million
Philippines: 488 Million

Canada?
 

48.2M, of whom 10 million live outside the ISOT region.
Canada grows so much of its own food that virtually everyone in the country could do just fine by staying. Oil drillers, miners, and tropical fruit farmers obviously live closer to their work, but most of the emigrated population lives in what used to be the USA.
 
2009: Nuclear War. How did this happen? Keep reading.

In 2007 the Islamic Confederation tested it's first nuclear weapon. Combined with their support for violent muslim extremism abroad they were quickly denounced by most other world powers. Sanctions soon followed. Only Australia (happy to anger India and sell grain for a high price) and the United States (viewing any sanctions as fundamentally un-capitalistic and wanting to tick off Moscow) would trade with them, but it was enough to keep their extremist state afloat.

Military build up and harsh control of the populace could only last for so long though, and the hard liner regime knew it needed to do something grand to rally support. It was decided they would take the fight to their mortal foes in India and in February of 2009, on Maha Shivaratri, IC paramilitaries launched a string of terror attacks across India, killing just over 2 000 people in the combined bombings and shootings. Already sending material support to communists in Yemen, New Delhi gave no declaration of war. They simply began deploying troops directly and launching aerial bombing campaigns against the Arabian peninsula. Within 4 months over 1 million Indian soldiers, pilots, and sailors had been deployed to combat zones, while 3 million reserve forces mostly took charge of training the millions of new recruits. The Islamic Confederation stood undaunted, with several million men under arms themselves and a conviction that Subcontinental Muslims would rise up any day, they kept the war conventional (though put continued effort into expanding their nuclear arsenal). This confidence was shot when India transfered command to Karachi born Islam Iqbal and reports that enlistment by Muslims into the Indian army was only marginally lower than Hindus reached Cairo. Combined with Indian landings in Somalia the hard liners realised they had bitten off more than they could chew. 78 nuclear warheads flew on August 4th towards India (mostly aboard bombers, though a number were submarine launched). Indian interceptors stopped a number of bombers, but 63 mushroom clouds still rose over the subcontinent. The Indian response had been swift though, with their own bombers and submarines mobilised on a hair trigger for the war. The Islamic Confederation was hit with 83 warheads.

On August 5th the world was a very different place. Washington's efforts to regain control over breakaway republics and various nations sliding towards American ultra-liberalism were very clearly off the top priorities list of Moscow. Even recently partitioned Switzerland realised this had at least as much impact on their lives as the recent war had. Ottoman citizens who had watched mushroom clouds rise across the border knew two things were coming: radiation and refugees. The nations of Asia sat watching to see if India could hold together. Indonesia turned its eyes towards Australia, fearing mushroom clouds over their own nation now that India might no longer support them. Oil prices skyrocketed. As did food prices as the world feared a nuclear winter and massive food shortages in both regions.
(The series has almost hit the present, so I thought I might as well finish it.)

And just when it seemed like this world had some potential to thrive... it stumbles. That must be a tough pill to swallow for Russia & Co.

I see that Mexico has joined the Latin American Union (that is what it was called, right?) Was the decision to let them in related to the nuclear strikes? How has a powerful member in both Europe and North America affected Brazil's domination of the Union? Is Argentina cozying up to Mexico or are they rather loyal to Brasilia at this point?

And wow, those bombs hit MASSIVE population centers! What is the death toll, roughly, from the bombs alone? How much carbon was sent into the atmosphere? I see Cairo has been wiped from the map; does the IC still have any form of cohesive government? Or are we seeing the map the day before they spiral into confused and bloody anarchy?

Poor Turkey... if we thought there was a refugee problem in OTL, it's going to be nothing compared to what's coming. Though it seems like the IC, for most of its history, has been an economically powerful and successful nation. Perhaps things will be stable enough in some places (Tripoli, Tunis, Medina, etc.) for a significant portion of the population to want to stay? In any case, hopefully Russia and Friends can navigate the situation a bit better than the EU has OTL.

Something just caught my eye... did the Indians bomb Mecca??? That's certainly not going to help their chances of staying together. Where there might have been a marginal difference in enlistment between Buddhists and Muslims before, destroying the most sacred site in Islam is certainly going to change that. Where the IC might just fall into anarchy, it seems there might be a significant chance that the Indians collapse into civil war.

I see the Americans are hard at work reconnecting with Texas. Do they have similar plans for Deseret, Canada, New Africa?

Good to see this map series return, bleak as it may be. Keep up the good work!
 
restored_monarchy_1882_by_pessimal-dadrnry.png

1882:​
By 1801 the reign of terror in France had to be stopped and with no clear leader to take control moderate republicans within the military saw no other choice but to restore the Bourbon monarchy, albeit under a constitutional system. With order within and war weariness abroad, the Treaty of Paris ensured the Kingdom of France would retain its “natural” borders. This was not without admissions as each of the sister republics were occupied by the coalition in order to restore the rightful regimes in Italy, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

In the following decades even with the death of the revolutionary forces, many European governments accept reform as necessary, even if slow to come. The most substantial global change would come from the UK of Portugal and Brazil, along with the development of the Spanish Commonwealth; Autonomous nations under a single Monarch. For the first half of the 19th century peace settled in Europe beyond the Ottoman-Russian conflicts.

The rising power of the United States would continue to secure its destiny. Mutual interests with Britain would secure the north whilst numerous conflicts with Spain and Mexico allowed for the annexation of Cuba and much of the South West of the Continent. The stark contrast in the Dixie and Yankee Americans would continue to provide problems, especially the issue of slavery. In the end, however, the feared civil war did not occur. Although slavery is still around, it is slowly dying.

The last 25 years has seen a rising in Friction, however, in Europe. Initially crisis arose in Bavaria. With the end of the Wittelsbachs, fear arose that Austria would once again try to claim the Bavarian title with a small conflict arising between France and Austria. The reality was that the Habsburgs were more focused outside the Empire, with the formation of the Italian and Hungarian kingdoms under junior houses to secure them (the Austrians truly respected the perceived success of the Spanish system). In time the ambitious Prussia would force a solution by annexing the newly independent (from Britain) Hanoverian duchy. In turn the house of Welf would inherit an enlarged Bavaria. In exchange, small bordering states were annexed by Saxony and Austria.

These attempts to maintain a balance of power in Europe were disrupted by power of the Prusso-Russian alliance. Specifically this became apparent during the second Baltic war (the first over Swedish Pomerania). Within a year, the alliance had scored successive victories against both Scandinavian kingdoms, leading to the treaty of London: Schleswig-Holstein and Bornholm were annexed to Prussia with numerous Finnish ports and border territories to Russia. With a Franco-Austrian alliance to counter, the question of war is when not if.

Further points:
  • Norway gained independence in 1879 as confidence in the Scandinavian system faltered from the Baltic wars.
  • In reality the Spanish government still had far too much control in the colonies for their liking, especially as conservatism reigned in Madrid. In time the stronger nations gained independence in the shadow of the Spanish-American wars, peacefully. However, in some ways the Andean nations have benefited by remaining in the commonwealth with open borders and trans-nation passports.
  • West Australia was originally a French colony, yet poor immigration and expense lead to a British sale.
  • The HRE still exists yet has become little more than a title as the major powers within were more focused on their own internal affairs. Numerous Rhine states have banded together to create a common system; originally to start the process for a German nation yet both France and Prussia made sure it remained little more than a buffer.
  • Without gunboat diplomacy, it would take a few more years for Japan to open up and has now becoming industrialized. China has not been so lucky.
 
Population growth was modeled as follows:

Populations are split into Internal and External, with Internal being the ISOTed portion and External being in virgin earth. Internal portions grow at the same rate as OTL, tapering to zero over time while external portions have two sources of growth, natural growth and immigration. Natural growth per annum for external portions is initially the average of the OTL growth rate and 1.04, which is the maximum that humans can sustain; Niger's natural growth rate is 1.036. So Niger's initial external natural growth rate is 1.038, while Bulgaria's is 1.017. Immigration from internal to external is assumed to be 0.1% of the internal portion's population per annum. External natural growth rate is tapered over time at the same rate as internal.

The mechanics of famine were modeled somewhat crudely. Basically, I counted up the caloric value of each country's agriculture and fishing, then determined what the shortage would be compared to its population (based on 2000 calories). Wealthy countries with high HDIs were able to distribute food in such a way that relatively few people died, but in all cases people desperately emigrated to external areas. Their reproduction rate was modeled using the external model, but with a higher initial population value.

So, for example, Japan had a shortage of 62 million people. Of those, only 13 million starved to death while 49 million emigrated, and these 50 million expanded into a vacuum. On the other extreme, Djibouti produces basically no food; they had a shortage of 880,000, of whom 685,000 died and 195,000 emigrated. Djibouti is now a lawless, tribal society where the self-proclaimed successor to the original government governs maybe a quarter of the population. Their post-famine growth rate was 3%, which is in line with the US during the 1700-1900 period, while their current growth rate is... 3%? ...oh.

I forgot to taper the external growth rate. That's the problem. I'll need to tweak it a bit.

[/spoiler]

That makes sense, actually, more or less, though I suspect that the "emigration" rate would be a little higher (especially in places like the US with a strong "frontier mentality".

Anyway, it's a very very cool idea. I can't wait until space elevators become a thing; interplanetary commerce should be pretty easy once that happens.
 
You can pry my steering wheel out of my cold dead hands, but that won’t happen because I don’t get into accidents.
Accidents aren't always your fault and they can happen to anyone. Just because you may or may not have gotten into an accident yet doesn't mean that some idiot won't run a red light and t-bone you at some point.
 
Hyperloops are exactly as realistic as ENTIRE COUNTRIES MOVING TO A VIRGIN EARTH ON THEIR OWN.

You misunderstand. The ASB is the ISOT. The point of interest in the description is the REALITY of the response thereto. If you want to invent EVERYTHING, there’s no reason to write it.

There was a guy a while back who asked what religions would be practiced where in the world in 2016 had the abrahamic religions never existed. I think that was what he wanted… Anyway, he wanted to keep EXISTING nations in that world but didn’t understand how butterflying all the changes from not having those religions was counterproductive to his initial question. If you’re going to ignore all the ramifications of the ISOT, you may as well just not have it at all and invent whatever you like from the get-go.

The point of these virgin Earth ISOTs isn’t to change the laws of physics to whatever you want permanently, but to have had one point of divergence from standard theories and to let reality cope with it.
 
1492 Ringworld series?

The title is "Exploring the Great Sphere."

The premise was that, instead of evolving on Earth, humanity evolves on the inner surface of an enormous dyson sphere with something like 50,000 continents, and the age of exploration goes on for centuries. Heavily ASB, but I enjoyed writing it.

I regrettably grew bored with it, and found myself unable to create new and interesting flora, fauna, and cultures for more than two of the continents.
 
And just when it seemed like this world had some potential to thrive... it stumbles. That must be a tough pill to swallow for Russia & Co.
Yeah, but it was in a way only a matter of time. Russia lacks the power projection of the OTL USA (somewhat fewer people, still less industry, etc.), which means other powers can get up to mischief and some efforts at a global coalition were built on shaky foundations.
I see that Mexico has joined the Latin American Union (that is what it was called, right?) Was the decision to let them in related to the nuclear strikes? How has a powerful member in both Europe and North America affected Brazil's domination of the Union? Is Argentina cozying up to Mexico or are they rather loyal to Brasilia at this point?
It was more US economic influence (and a bit of political assassination). New Mexico and the Amerindian Homeland folded, but the Mexicans had their pride, and felt Brazil was the lesser evil. Mexico and Argentina actually really don't get along. Argentina was reluctant to join and wants to keep the LAU a very loose free trade organisation (they're still very conservative and nativist). Mexico meanwhile has suffered from a serious recession after the fall of the USSA and has lots of people big on freedom of movement reforms and greater economic cooperation. Brazil like's Mexico's support for greater unity, but remains weary about risking all those Mexicans (and other central Americans from formerly communist nations) flood south into the more prosperous South America.
And wow, those bombs hit MASSIVE population centers! What is the death toll, roughly, from the bombs alone? How much carbon was sent into the atmosphere? I see Cairo has been wiped from the map; does the IC still have any form of cohesive government? Or are we seeing the map the day before they spiral into confused and bloody anarchy?
Pretty big ones, yes. I'd put IC losses at 20-25 million overall, while Red India lost ~15 million (keep in mind this is the day after the exchange, so the radiation zone is pretty big). The IC government had evacuated to positions in the desert just before launching their nukes (a move that once leaked will basically decimate all support, currently state media insists they were evacuated when Indian bombers were sighted). There's going to be about a week or two of inertia before things truly fall apart (lies about the extent of damage, troops in denial, religious zeal ignoring logic, etc.), but things will fall apart quickly.
Poor Turkey... if we thought there was a refugee problem in OTL, it's going to be nothing compared to what's coming. Though it seems like the IC, for most of its history, has been an economically powerful and successful nation. Perhaps things will be stable enough in some places (Tripoli, Tunis, Medina, etc.) for a significant portion of the population to want to stay? In any case, hopefully Russia and Friends can navigate the situation a bit better than the EU has OTL.
Yeah, the IC was doing decent enough, with Iran like living standards for most of it's existance. Having been so far away Tunisia and Libya emerged alright, though that also means the hardliner governments were left in power. They're also a small chunk of overall population. And yes, this refugee crisis will make OTL seen like a cakewalk. Though in this world not everyone is going north. Will northern Egypt so irradiated plenty on the upper Nile will go south instead. Africa might not be super great, but at least it isn't radioactive.
Something just caught my eye... did the Indians bomb Mecca??? That's certainly not going to help their chances of staying together. Where there might have been a marginal difference in enlistment between Buddhists and Muslims before, destroying the most sacred site in Islam is certainly going to change that. Where the IC might just fall into anarchy, it seems there might be a significant chance that the Indians collapse into civil war.
No. It was Jeddah that got nuked. India's government might not like religion, but they weren't about to tick off tens of millions of their own citizens, their one real ally of Indonesia, and Bengal. There was some grumbling about fallout reaching Mecca and Medina, but considering what the hard liners in Cairo were getting up to (Saudi like demolition schemes, but done in a hurry) most approve of breaking IC control in the region.
I see the Americans are hard at work reconnecting with Texas. Do they have similar plans for Deseret, Canada, New Africa?
Yes. Deseret has basically solved the issue by selling a number of through railways, highways, and pipelines, hoping appeasement works. The Canadas are generally more confrontational (like the Baltics OTL), while New Africa is highly indecisive as many wonder if leaving was such a good idea (and there's lots of whites who 'know' it was a bad idea).
Good to see this map series return, bleak as it may be. Keep up the good work!
It's not got too much longer to go, but hopefully things can turn around.
 
In 2016, Every country was given their own Earth, presumably by a hyper-advanced alien race. All UN member nations, minus Vatican City but including Taiwan, Kosovo, North Cyprus, Palestine, West Sahara, and South Ossetia, were given Earths occupying the same orbit between Venus and Mars, 1 AU away from the Sun. As anyone familiar with orbital mechanics can tell you, this arrangement, termed a Klemperer Rosette, should be unstable; computer simulations indicate that the orbits should have collapsed after less than five years, but somehow the Earths stay neatly arranged in a circle.
Where did the Vatican go to, then? Did it vanish completely? And should we take it by the flag that the U.S. has their own planet? And really, I am sure if people went to Antartica or international waters to look for the continent of floating trash they would have an idea which planet was the original. It is San Marino's, isn't it?
 
Where did the Vatican go to, then? Did it vanish completely? And should we take it by the flag that the U.S. has their own planet? And really, I am sure if people went to Antartica or international waters to look for the continent of floating trash they would have an idea which planet was the original. It is San Marino's, isn't it?

The Vatican is in Italy; I decided to do that because the country is mostly clergymen and tourists, and the population would basically die if ISOTed.

Antarctica's research stations go to whoever operates them, while abandoned sites were transported according to whose claims they were on.
As for the great pacific garbage patch, it vanished along with everything in Earth orbit. The ISS astronauts are presumed captured by whatever aliens were responsible for the ISOT. Ships in international waters, on the other hand, were transported to either their most recent or their next port of call, whichever was closer.
 

Dementor

Banned
Okay, I fixed the population growth model so that it wasn't quite so crazy.
Why would natural growth taper off outside the initialy isoted territory unless the planet was already getting full (which is not the case for anyone but China and India)? And how exactly does growth taper off?
 
Why would natural growth taper off outside the initialy isoted territory unless the planet was already getting full (which is not the case for anyone but China and India)? And how exactly does growth taper off?

It's a well-known phenomenon where as living standards rise, birth rates drop off. The United States could have easily grown to around 800 million by this time in OTL, but instead it leveled off just after WWI.

As for the actual mechanics, I used a negative exponent for the growth rate with a time constant of 111 years, so the birth rate halves every 77 years. It's a fairly crude approximation, but it works when it's only a 125 year timescale
 
Why would natural growth taper off outside the initialy isoted territory unless the planet was already getting full (which is not the case for anyone but China and India)? And how exactly does growth taper off?

I think of it as a combination of:
-There's going to be a finite amount of "emigration" to the new regions because people are hesitant to uproot and move to a frontier
-The old regions might see a small uptick, but not a drastic rise as there's still the same amount of land there

Personally, I still think the numbers are a little low (except for Japan), but it's his map, and the numbers aren't ridiculous.
 
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