WI : Mao dies in the 1950s but Stalin survives another Decade, what happens to China and the USSR

[TheDoofusUser]

so I've been reading a few threads on what if Mao died and if Stalin lived another decade and so, I've come to ask everyone here this question - What if it was Mao, not Stalin, who died on that day in 1953. Who is his immediate successor? Is there a possible way for China to leap slowly but steadily into Democracy from an earlier death of Mao? As for a longer lived Stalin, let's say he lives to at least 1963. What happens to the USSR under his extended regime? After his death, who is likely to succeed him and what comes next for the USSR? How does Stalin handle Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, and LBJ (If he lives to see the first couple weeks of LBJ's admin)?

BONUS : If Mao and Stalin died on the same day, outside of the U. S. going "What a coincidence!", what comes next for China, the USSR, and maybe even North Korea?

 

[Lalli]

Longer living Stalin wouldn't mean anything good. Nothing. More purges and possibility Second Holcaust. Stalin's succession would be really messy. Probably Soviet Union wouldn't survive from that.

China probably gets more rational leadeship and there might be earlier Sino-Soviet Split. This might even mean Sino-Soviet War.

Anyway, butterflies are such that presidents would are completely different. It is perfectly possible that Nixon is elected as president and even if Kennedy is president he might avoid his assassination.

 

[LeX]

China wouldn't have a Cultural Revolution and might avoid the Great Leap Forward. But it'd still have bloody purges and political campaigns that could rack up millions of deaths like the Land Reform. Some other strongman would probably end up taking the reins and they'd try to "implement communism" before failing at it and allowing private business in some capacity.

Russia would be far more ossified as Stalin ages and loses his mental faculties. I think "Twilight of the Red Tsar" maybe was more hyperbolic than it would have actually been but it seems directionally accurate.

 

[Michel Van]

Under Stalin that life longer
His purges would continue, his last was against medics, doctors and jews was stop with his death in 1953.
But here the purges continue leading total collapse of USSR in 1960, do lack of qualified Personnel like doctors or teacher.
Stalin paranoia let to Downfall of his Empire once he died...

In China were Mao Zedong died in 1950, Chinese Communism take complete different turn,
There leaders will see the development in USSR and questioning Stalinism, even if Communism is right way for China after USSR collapse hard !

But real wildcard is USA hat will happen here in that scenario ?
With Stalin continue his atrocity, this could let to more Anticommunist US politic internal and External.
To prevent the spreading of Communism in free World at any cost,
They will intervene either active with military in Korea or Cuba, Also with CIA operation in Nations with strong Left or Communist party like Italy, France and others.

But in 1960 the USA and there allies face far dangerous world crisis the total collapse of USSR !
With frightened question: who in russia controls the nuclear weapons now ?

 

[David T]

Longer living Stalin wouldn't mean anything good.

Not for the Soviet Union. But he was actually a force for moderation vis-a-vis Mao; see Michael H. Sheng, *Battling Western Imperialism: Mao, Stalin, and the United States*

​

"Here , an old pattern in Mao - Stalin relations manifested itself again : Mao was more of a radical revolutionary inclined to simple solutions , while Stalin was more of a tactful statesman who tutored Mao to form a united front with the GMD during the anti-Japanese war, and he continued to correct Mao's radicalism. Had Stalin lived ten years longer , would Mao's Anti -Rightist movement and the Great Leap Forward have happened ? One might well argue that from a CCP retrospective , Stalin died too early and Mao lived too long." https://books.google.com/books?id=HZJcxq1DIOYC&pg=PA167​

See an old post of mine:

***

One interesting (to me, anyway) detail is that in the PRC the nominally multiparty system is the result of Stalin, who overruled Mao's suggestion that a one-party system be established following victory. See Stalin's telegram of April 20, 1948: "We are very grateful for the information from Comrade Mao Zedong. We agree with the assessment of the situation given by Comrade Mao Zedong. We have doubts only about one point in the letter, where it is said that “In the period of the final victory of the Chinese Revolution, following the example of the USSR and Yugoslavia, all political parties except the CCP should leave the political scene, which will significantly strengthen the Chinese Revolution.” We do not agree with this. We think that the various opposition parties in China which are representing the middle strata of the Chinese population and are opposing the Guomindang clique will exist for a long time. And the CCP will have to involve them in cooperation against the Chinese reactionary forces and imperialist powers, while keeping hegemony, i.e., the leading position, in its hands. It is possible that some representatives of these parties will have to be included into the Chinese people's democratic government and the government itself has to be proclaimed a coalition government in order to widen the basis of this government among the population and to isolate imperialists and their Guomindang agents. It is necessary to keep in mind that the Chinese government in its policy will be a national revolutionary-democratic government, not a communist one, after the victory of the People's Liberation Armies of China, at any rate in the period immediately after the victory, the length of which is difficult to define now. This means that nationalization of all land and abolition of private ownership of land, confiscation of the property of all industrial and trade bourgeoisie from petty to big, confiscation of property belonging not only to big landowners but to middle and small holders exploiting hired labor, will not be fulfilled for the present. These reforms have to wait for some time. It has to be said for your information that there are other parties in Yugoslavia besides the communists which form part of the People's Front." http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113618

 

[TheDoofusUser]

Not for the Soviet Union. But he was actually a force for moderation vis-a-vis Mao; see Michael H. Sheng, *Battling Western Imperialism: Mao, Stalin, and the United States*

​

"Here , an old pattern in Mao - Stalin relations manifested itself again : Mao was more of a radical revolutionary inclined to simple solutions , while Stalin was more of a tactful statesman who tutored Mao to form a united front with the GMD during the anti-Japanese war, and he continued to correct Mao's radicalism. Had Stalin lived ten years longer , would Mao's Anti -Rightist movement and the Great Leap Forward have happened ? One might well argue that from a CCP retrospective , Stalin died too early and Mao lived too long." https://books.google.com/books?id=HZJcxq1DIOYC&pg=PA167​

See an old post of mine:

***

One interesting (to me, anyway) detail is that in the PRC the nominally multiparty system is the result of Stalin, who overruled Mao's suggestion that a one-party system be established following victory. See Stalin's telegram of April 20, 1948: "We are very grateful for the information from Comrade Mao Zedong. We agree with the assessment of the situation given by Comrade Mao Zedong. We have doubts only about one point in the letter, where it is said that “In the period of the final victory of the Chinese Revolution, following the example of the USSR and Yugoslavia, all political parties except the CCP should leave the political scene, which will significantly strengthen the Chinese Revolution.” We do not agree with this. We think that the various opposition parties in China which are representing the middle strata of the Chinese population and are opposing the Guomindang clique will exist for a long time. And the CCP will have to involve them in cooperation against the Chinese reactionary forces and imperialist powers, while keeping hegemony, i.e., the leading position, in its hands. It is possible that some representatives of these parties will have to be included into the Chinese people's democratic government and the government itself has to be proclaimed a coalition government in order to widen the basis of this government among the population and to isolate imperialists and their Guomindang agents. It is necessary to keep in mind that the Chinese government in its policy will be a national revolutionary-democratic government, not a communist one, after the victory of the People's Liberation Armies of China, at any rate in the period immediately after the victory, the length of which is difficult to define now. This means that nationalization of all land and abolition of private ownership of land, confiscation of the property of all industrial and trade bourgeoisie from petty to big, confiscation of property belonging not only to big landowners but to middle and small holders exploiting hired labor, will not be fulfilled for the present. These reforms have to wait for some time. It has to be said for your information that there are other parties in Yugoslavia besides the communists which form part of the People's Front." http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113618

so would this mean Stalin kinda guides China onto a quasi-democratic path if he lived another decade or is it more likely the CCP breaks itself into various Communist Party claiming to be opposition of the main party but all in governing coalition with the main party?

Also, what of the second question and the bonus question?

 

[David T]

so would this mean Stalin kinda guides China onto a quasi-democratic path if he lived another decade or is it more likely the CCP breaks itself into various Communist Party claiming to be opposition of the main party but all in governing coalition with the main party?

Also, what of the second question and the bonus question?

I don't think it will be democratic or even semi-democratic; as in the east Eurppean "peoples democracies" (and as in the PRC itself in the early and mid- 1950s) the minor parties will basically be auxiliaires to attract non-Communist support for a Communist-led government. What I do see is a continuation of the Soviet-style economic development of the PRC in the 1950s (which after all led to high growth rates before the "leftist" excesses of the late 1950s).

Part of that development was *gradually* socializing industry; the old factory owners were allowed to be managers and part-owners of what were now mixed private-public enterprises (and to get a share of the profits).

It's hard to answer your other questions--e.g., how would Stalin get along with JFK or LBJ--they might never become presidents!

 

[TheDoofusUser]

I don't think it will be democratic or even semi-democratic; as in the east Eurppean "peoples democracies" (and as in the PRC itself in the early and mid- 1950s) the minor parties will basically be auxiliaires to attract non-Communist support for a Communist-led government. What I do see is a continuation of the Soviet-style economic development of the PRC in the 1950s (which after al;l led to high growth rates before the "leftist" excesses of the late 1950s.

Part of that development was *gradually* socializing indystry; the old factory owners were allowed to be managerts and part-owners of what were now mixed private-public enterprises (and to get a share of the profits).

It's hard to answer your other questions--e.g., how would Stalin get along with JFK or LBJ--they might never become presidents!

I meant as in Mao Zedong dying in 1953 and how that could lead to a potential slow and steady democratization of China somehow while the bonus question was if Mao and Stalin dying on the same day.

 

[TheDoofusUser]

Something interesting, mayhaps instead of Kruschev or some unknown succeeding Stalin, he's succeeded by a 32-34 year old Boris Yeltsen or Mikhail Gorbachev in 1963-1965. How would either man succeeding Ol Joe and leading the USSR from the 60s on have gone?

 

[Lalli]

Something interesting, mayhaps instead of Kruschev or some unknown succeeding Stalin, he's succeeded by a 32-34 year old Boris Yeltsen or Mikhail Gorbachev in 1963-1965. How would either man succeeding Ol Joe and leading the USSR from the 60s on have gone?

I don't see Yeltsin or Gorbachev having any political career ITTL or being picked leaders decades earlier than in OTL. Stalin's death either would lead to complete chaos and dissolution of Soviet Union, Suslov's premiership or then there is someone completely unknown person for us.

 

[TheDoofusUser]

I don't see Yeltsin or Gorbachev having any political career ITTL or being picked leaders decades earlier than in OTL. Stalin's death either would lead to complete chaos and dissolution of Soviet Union, Suslov's premiership or then there is someone completely unknown person for us.

Could both Suslov and Malenkov be purged due to Stalin's paranoia while he keeps an alcoholic like Yeltsin as funny little jester for him to laugh at?

 

[Lalli]

Could both Suslov and Malenkov be purged due to Stalin's paranoia while he keeps an alcoholic like Yeltsin as funny little jester for him to laugh at?

Malenkov might be purged but not so sure about Suslov. Suslov is probably too important for Stalin. But you never know how paranopid Stalin can be.

I am not sure if Yeltsin gets any prominence ITTL. And if Stalin wants alcoholist in Russia is not shortage about them.

 

[TheDoofusUser]

Malenkov might be purged but not so sure about Suslov. Suslov is probably too important for Stalin. But you never know how paranopid Stalin can be.

I am not sure if Yeltsin gets any prominence ITTL. And if Stalin wants alcoholist in Russia is not shortage about them.

admittedly, I just wanted Yeltsin so that Gorbachev flees from his regime and founds a Pizza chain in Minnesota in the 1970s for my TL

 

[jerseyguy]

China wouldn't have a Cultural Revolution and might avoid the Great Leap Forward. But it'd still have bloody purges and political campaigns that could rack up millions of deaths like the Land Reform. Some other strongman would probably end up taking the reins and they'd try to "implement communism" before failing at it and allowing private business in some capacity.

Russia would be far more ossified as Stalin ages and loses his mental faculties. I think "Twilight of the Red Tsar" maybe was more hyperbolic than it would have actually been but it seems directionally accurate.

China's economic growth before the Great Leap Forward was pretty impressive OTL, by the late '50s they had basically recovered from the damage of the Sino-Japanese War. A lot of that came down to China having a functional central government for practically the first time since the Taiping Rebellion.

 

[Fries]

possibility Second Holcaust.

If Stalin genuinely tried to put a second Holocaust into effect, he'd be thrown out of office before he could even make the first order. This is an ASB trope that has always been fucking stupid. Stalin was (possibly personally) anti-Semitic, yes, and he implemented anti-Semitic policies. But a "second Holocaust"? Do you even know what the Holocaust was or why Stalin purged in the first place? Stalin was paranoid. For the most part a lot of the purges (that were ordered by him or his subordinates, not genuine psychopaths like Yezhov) came from a place of paranoia. Paranoia doesn't tend to make genocide. Purges and perhaps resettlement? Yeah, it happened in real life? But industrialized genocide? Pure fantasy.

Malenkov might be purged but not so sure about Suslov. Suslov is probably too important for Stalin. But you never know how paranopid Stalin can be.

I could imagine Malenkov being part of a "loyal opposition", similar to William Foster's relationship with Earl Browder in the CPUSA: he'd have criticisms, but at the end of the day he'd acquiesce to Stalin and the CPSU's policy of democratic centralism. Malenkov was shrewd, a good administrator, and a technocrat. Stalin genuinely really liked Malenkov and took his criticisms, especially about governmental focus on industry, seriously. Malenkov was too valuable and too loyal to just toss out of the party.

 

[TheDoofusUser]

If Stalin genuinely tried to put a second Holocaust into effect, he'd be thrown out of office before he could even make the first order. This is an ASB trope that has always been fucking stupid. Stalin was (probably) anti-Semitic, yes, and he implemented anti-Semitic policies. But a "second Holocaust"? Do you even know what the Holocaust was or why Stalin purged in the first place? Stalin was paranoid. For the most part a lot of the purges (that were ordered by him or his subordinates, not genuine psychopaths like Yezhov) came from a place of paranoia. Paranoia doesn't tend to make genocide. Purges and perhaps resettlement? Yeah, it happened in real life? But industrialized genocide? Pure fantasy.

I think he meant that the purge would be equivalent to a second Holocaust, not a genocide that's specifically focused on Jews but one that overwhelmingly targets Jews but is still random due to Joe's Paranoia.

 

[Fries]

I think he meant that the purge would be equivalent to a second Holocaust, not a genocide that's specifically focused on Jews but one that overwhelmingly targets Jews but is still random due to Joe's Paranoia.

Still a horrible way to phrase that: and pretty unlikely, given that Stalin was becoming more and more aware that Beria was trying to save his own skin and that the Doctor's Plot was a load of horseshit. The relocation of Jews to the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and the "Anti-Cosmopolitan" campaign were two periods of anti-Semitism over a rule of 29 years. If Stalin wanted a Great Purge against Jews it would've happened in the Great Purge itself, in my opinion. Russia, which the USSR evolved from, was also an anti-Semitic nation and had been for centuries before the creation of the USSR and Stalin's tenure as paramount leader. To lump all the anti-Semitism in the USSR at Stalin's feet smells like Great Man Theory to me.

 

[dsp19]

Stalin almost died in 1945. He had a stroke around the time of the Soviet Victory Parade over the Nazis and a heart attack later that year. It's actually more likely in an AH scenario that he dies before 1953 than lives into the 1960s.

I'd pose a different WI...WI Stalin died before the Communist Chinese won the CCW against Chiang Kai Shek

 

[ramones1986]

Stalin almost died in 1945. He had a stroke around the time of the Soviet Victory Parade over the Nazis and a heart attack later that year. It's actually more likely in an AH scenario that he dies before 1953 than lives into the 1960s.

I'd pose a different WI...WI Stalin died before the Communist Chinese won the CCW against Chiang Kai Shek

Who would be his possible successor in such scenario.

 

[dsp19]

Who would be his possible successor in such scenario.

Probably still Malenkov if Stalin dies anytime between 1947 and 1953 because he was Stalin’s favorite. Before that, probably Andrei Zhdanov