Italy and the USSR enjoyed relatively good relations in the interwar period and early stages of WW2, with Fascist Italy being the first country to formally recognize the Soviet government in addition the two countries enjoying strong economic relations and signing a pact of friendship in 1933. What if instead of joining the Pact of Steel with Germany and Japan, Italy maintained its relations with the Soviet Union and aligned against Germany (possibly to prevent the anschluss of Austria)?
WI: Italo-Soviet Pact against Germany
- Thread starter Tripsos
- Start date
While the Soviet Union, too, ultimately is a revisionist Power, her interests and Italian ones somewhat conflict in the Balkans, they're distant, and the Germans are much more a potential enemy of the Soviets than they could be of the Italians. Military cooperation would equally be hard, and while an alliance of convenience can be struck if Germany somehow hits first against both, it'll be dead soon after the conflict.
In purely geopolitical terms, Italy and Russia/USSR could very easily be allies in the relevant timeframe, particularly as both are generally likely to have problems with Germany and not to have much in the way of conflicting interests, DIRECTLY. The German-Italian Axis made sense in the eyes of the actors at its time, but was really NOT the most sensible alignment for Italy, in the eyes of contemporary observers, let alone hindsight. Of course, Fascist Italy would not ever align closely with the Soviets (barring some strange situations) out of ideology.
Depends. If we say that Mussolini makes a pact with the Soviets in/before 1937, the dictator complains about anschluss and hosts a Dolfuss regime in exile, but otherwise bides his time, preparing for war later. Il Duce is displeased with the Molotov/Ribbentrop Pact, but gets secret assurances from the Kremlin. Maybe things with Romania go differently and one of the crises in Yugoslavia results in its division into Italian (Croat) and Soviet (Serb) client states? Maybe fearing what he's seeing, Metaxas aligns himself to Germany and Turkey drifts towards the Soviet camp. Bulgaria is in the Italo-Soviet camp after being bought off with bits of Yugoslavia and Romania. Horthy sympathizes with Italy and Russia, but is cooperating with Hitler for the time being. Poland falls on schedule and is partitioned. Romania gets it worse than in OTL, but the Iron Guard are weaker if they're even still in power. The war with Finland still goes badly for the Soviets, even with the possibility of Italian support. Maybe the real POD is in Spain, but it would be interesting if the scenario allowed for a Soviet-aligned faction to win the Spanish civil war, but allow Italy to control the Balearic Islands. Benelux and France fall on schedule, but Mussolini doesn't try to grab any French territory as he's neutral at this stage. Feeling confident in their position, and witnessing Italian deficiencies in Spain and in Finland, Hitler decides he needs to secure his southern flank before taking on the USSR...
thaddeus
Donor
have the Nazi regime back Ethiopia to a much greater extent than historical, grab Austria with a second bite at the apple while Italy is distracted? (1935 or 1936?)
that might prompt Italy to be willing to join in some alliance with the USSR? which could/would lead to some kind of Balkans "free for all?" Germany would have to rely on Hungary more than historical.
that might prompt Italy to be willing to join in some alliance with the USSR? which could/would lead to some kind of Balkans "free for all?" Germany would have to rely on Hungary more than historical.
I wonder how the allies would respond to that. Obvious they weren't too fond of Hitler, but Mussolini and Stalin weren't exactly on good terms with London either.
Well, I see Stalin potentially staying out of the war for the moment, or intervening to "maintain order" in the Italian Balkan vassals, but Italy is effectively now one of the allies...
Nothing changes, beside Italy jumping once Barbarossa happens, Italy doesn't offered anything to the URSS, Germany offered them the baltic and poland
Italy offer a continental ally in Europe...that will not invade due to their general divergence of interest (at least if it concentrate on Poland and the Baltic) as both side of the M-R pact know that it was a temporary thing.
Said that, the Kingdom of Italy will not seek a formal alliance with the URSS as well, taking their money is ok but become ally will be a political suicide for Benny
thaddeus
Donor
this is an interesting scenario because USSR was Turkey's #1 enemy and Italy was #2, the Soviets were obsessed with the Turkish Straits during their period of cooperation with Nazi Germany historically.
IF the USSR and Italy started cooperation on naval construction, they are going to want access through the Straits, and then through the Suez Canal? (the Soviets are not going to build a battleship fleet to have it bottled up on the Black Sea? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetsky_Soyuz-class_battleship)
the unlikely duo could dominate if not divide Yugoslavia, Greece, and Bulgaria as easily as they were historically? IDK about N. Africa and Spain?
IF the USSR and Italy started cooperation on naval construction, they are going to want access through the Straits, and then through the Suez Canal? (the Soviets are not going to build a battleship fleet to have it bottled up on the Black Sea? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetsky_Soyuz-class_battleship)
the unlikely duo could dominate if not divide Yugoslavia, Greece, and Bulgaria as easily as they were historically? IDK about N. Africa and Spain?
thaddeus
Donor
especially if the Soviets gain some naval technology from the Italians and start building capital ships? (however ill fated such ships are to be)
the big question would be whether France would sign some pact with USSR-Italy? at first glance crazy, but they had a (lackluster) pact with the Soviets in 1935?
Well, France was relatively friendly with Italy after 1933 since they didn't want them to join the Germans, so they may cooperate or join purely out of a desire to isolate Germany. Mussolini was also interested in cooperating with the other powers of Europe as evidenced by the ill-fated Four-Power Pact.
RandomFloridian
Banned
This is going to have some interesting effects on the second Sino Japanese war and second Italo Ethiopian war.
"In this connection some German politicians say that the U.S.S.R. has now taken an orientation towards France and Poland; that from an opponent of the Versailles Treaty it has become a supporter of it, and that this change is to be explained by the establishment of the fascist regime in Germany. That is not true. Of course, we are far from being enthusiastic about the fascist regime in Germany. But it is not a question of fascism here, if only for the reason that fascism in Italy, for example, has not prevented the U.S.S.R. from establishing the best relations with that country. [my emphasis--DT] Nor is it a question of any alleged change in our attitude towards the Versailles Treaty. It is not for us, who have experienced the shame of the Brest Peace, to sing the praises of the Versailles Treaty. We merely do not agree to the world being flung into the abyss of a new war on account of that treaty. The same must be said of the alleged new orientation taken by the U.S.S.R. We never had any orientation towards Germany, nor have we any orientation towards Poland and France. Our orientation in the past and our orientation at the present time is towards the U.S.S.R., and towards the U.S.S.R. alone. (Stormy applause.) And if the interests of the U.S.S.R. demand rapprochement with one country or another which is not interested in disturbing peace, we adopt this course without hesitation." https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1934/01/26.htm
RandomFloridian
Banned
This is going to have some interesting effects on the second Sino Japanese war and second Italo Ethiopian war.
Also if the Italians still end up going after Greece in this timeline, I cant see it ending well for them at all.
Even if Italy dosent go to war with Germany over something like Austria, the Germans are still potentially hostile to them and the Soviets are to far away to help, especially if Turkey closes the Bosphorus straits, which would require the USSR to go to war with Turkey to gain control of the straits.
This might lead to a Greco-Turkish alliance against Itay and the USSR.
Also if the Italians still end up going after Greece in this timeline, I cant see it ending well for them at all.
Even if Italy dosent go to war with Germany over something like Austria, the Germans are still potentially hostile to them and the Soviets are to far away to help, especially if Turkey closes the Bosphorus straits, which would require the USSR to go to war with Turkey to gain control of the straits.
This might lead to a Greco-Turkish alliance against Itay and the USSR.