Depends. If we say that Mussolini makes a pact with the Soviets in/before 1937, the dictator complains about anschluss and hosts a Dolfuss regime in exile, but otherwise bides his time, preparing for war later. Il Duce is displeased with the Molotov/Ribbentrop Pact, but gets secret assurances from the Kremlin. Maybe things with Romania go differently and one of the crises in Yugoslavia results in its division into Italian (Croat) and Soviet (Serb) client states? Maybe fearing what he's seeing, Metaxas aligns himself to Germany and Turkey drifts towards the Soviet camp. Bulgaria is in the Italo-Soviet camp after being bought off with bits of Yugoslavia and Romania. Horthy sympathizes with Italy and Russia, but is cooperating with Hitler for the time being. Poland falls on schedule and is partitioned. Romania gets it worse than in OTL, but the Iron Guard are weaker if they're even still in power. The war with Finland still goes badly for the Soviets, even with the possibility of Italian support. Maybe the real POD is in Spain, but it would be interesting if the scenario allowed for a Soviet-aligned faction to win the Spanish civil war, but allow Italy to control the Balearic Islands. Benelux and France fall on schedule, but Mussolini doesn't try to grab any French territory as he's neutral at this stage. Feeling confident in their position, and witnessing Italian deficiencies in Spain and in Finland, Hitler decides he needs to secure his southern flank before taking on the USSR...