WI: Earlier Soviet capture of Narva in 1944

[GauchoBadger]

IOTL, there was a Soviet offensive aimed at Estonia launched at the end stages of WW2, in february 1944. The Soviets hoped to gain a beachhead to the Baltic sea, to supplant their operations aimed at the Baltic states and Finland.
However, the Axis forces in the area presented stiffer resistance than the Soviets expected, and the German-Estonian forces held their ground. This also had effects over the Continuation War in Finland, and allowed the aforementioned Germans to form the Kurland pocket, which would hold out till the end of the war in Europe.
But what if the Soviets had managed to dislodge the Germans from Narva already in early 1944?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

We need to know how it happens and was the response is; might be that the Germans pull back further to avoid problems and don't get pocketed, drawing out some of the fighting in the East longer due to the Kourland not being formed and the forces therin rendered operationally/strategically irrelevant for the rest of the war.

 

[GauchoBadger]

We need to know how it happens and was the response is; might be that the Germans pull back further to avoid problems and don't get pocketed, drawing out some of the fighting in the East longer due to the Kourland not being formed and the forces therin rendered operationally/strategically irrelevant for the rest of the war.

I know i might be armchair-general-mongering here, but if the Stavka had not decided to bomb Narva's civilian centers, could there be less pro-Axis Estonian conscripts to defend the Narva pass (as a result of no defensive propaganda coup), thus giving the Soviets a slightly better advantage?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I know i might be armchair-general-mongering here, but if the Stavka had not decided to bomb Narva's civilian centers, could there be less pro-Axis Estonian conscripts to defend the Narva pass (as a result of no defensive propaganda coup), thus giving the Soviets a slightly better advantage?

Doubtful; the Estonians were just as motivated to fight due to what happened in 1940-41 during the Soviet occupation and retreat. They did not want the Soviets to come back and as it was they already were joining up to fight in 1942.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Legion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3rd_Estonian_SS_Volunteer_Brigade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Estonian)

By January 1944, the front was pushed back by the Red Army almost all the way to the former Estonian border. On 31 January 1944 general conscription-mobilization was announced in Estonia by the German authorities.[5] On 7 February Jüri Uluots, the last constitutional prime minister of the republic of Estonia,[6] supported the mobilization call during a radio address in the hope of restoring the Estonian Army and the country's independence.[nb 1] 38,000 men were conscripted, the formation of the 20th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Estonian) had begun.[8]

 

[Karelian]

This would most likely mean that Finland falls in summer 1944, as the loss of Estonia would allow the Soviet Red Banner Baltic Fleet to break free from their siege and cut off the Finnish sea routes to Germany.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

This would most likely mean that Finland falls in summer 1944, as the loss of Estonia would allow the Soviet Red Banner Baltic Fleet to break free from their siege and cut off the Finnish sea routes to Germany.

How functional was the Soviet Baltic Fleet by this time? As I understand it the Soviet fleet wasn't a major factor even after Narwa was lost IOTL. As it was the Axis maintained a minefield blockade that bottled up the Soviet fleet until after Finland surrendered in September. Prior the shift of German naval assets out of the Baltic to deal with the D-day landings was a more significant blow to Axis control over the Gulf of Finland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Sea_campaigns_(1939–45)#Operations_in_1944

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bumping for interest.