The main site listing of this is "What if the Japanese disco", which made me assume this was a much different topic. As my services are not needed, I will boogie on down.
What if the Japanese discovered the Liaohe oil field?
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
But why risk a war with China when you're too busy developing Manchuria?
IIRC the oil embargo was because the Japanese occupied French Indo China.
My guess is that the Pacific War still happens. Although Japan should be self-sufficient in oil by this point it still needs other raw materials like iron ore and rubber from the East Indies.
OTOH if synthetic rubber can be made from the type of oil the Manchurian fields produce then that's another thing they don't need the East Indies for.
Because they still want to destroy the Chinese people and use China for labor, raw materials and living space?
right you are. Those embargos will still come since Japan will stay being an imperialistic, fascist state. They will be lightly adjusted embargos, less of oil and more of other materials prompting the japanese to their otl plans.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
As if Japan had any sort of coherent idea of what the goal when blundering into a continental war.
You might find it worthwhile to actually look into why that war started.
don't be condescending. I know how the mind of an imperialist works. That was the reason for their aggressive behavior towards China, the reason they took manchuria earlier and the reanof for attacking the Pacific. Tensions within the IJA sparked the fuse, but it was not the reason for the war.
When you say the Japanese wanted to destroy the Chinese people (and to go out of their way to do it) then you would often face a much more sharp rebuttal than was given by Smith. The army and navy would still want glory though, and there are several options for them to go after. China staying United would probably be very inconvenient for imperial pretensions as China reforming would make them a big competitor to the Japanese economically and with influence over their neighboring countries.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Thank you for proving my point of your lack of understanding.
The origins of Japanese imperialism was fundamentally different from old European imperialism, stemming from trying to not be the prey in a predatory world that was becoming more and more savage as the Great Depression seemed to indicate the road down to economic blocs. Japan by itself would never be able to maintain any level of parity, and so a drive to claim a place in the sun was fundamental in the paranoia that drove the expansion. Any notion of Japanese superiority that arose during this process came as justification for why Japan was expanding.
If Japan suddenly found that it could essentially find everything it needed in Manchuria, then the necessity to protect the asset paradoxically means Japan must no longer expand. At that point the head honchos would do everything, even appeasing Chiang, to ensure that a line is drawn which would not be crossed. No war with China, no threat to the oil, no need to expand except possibly against the Soviets to establish buffer zones.
My opinion is that finding this oil will make it even more necessary (in their eyes) to do something against the chinese and drive them as far as possible from Manchuria. They will also be even more paranoid about USSR. Perhaps this would prompt even more spending on the army, particularily the Kwantung army, more fortifications, more tanks and other gear, more motorization maybe (all this potentially being of help against the british if the war happens), to the detriment of naval buildup, except perhaps more tankers to carry that oil and perhaps more emphasis on ASW to protect that oil lane? Perhaps those in charge they will see in their interest to adhere closer to the naval treaties, maybe they don't build the Yamatos, but something smaller and cheaper (which is of course a good thing). More oil means also more fuel available, so they have more for the navy, and more for training pilots (again if the war still hapens). They might still end up in a desperate situation in 1945, but presumably they would have stockpiled a few millions tons of oil around the country.
If the war still happens, would be interesting to ponder the effects of more plentiful oil for the navy in the 1942 operations, and also things like a well trained and with suficient fuel First Mobile Fleet facing the americans in 1944 (they could train in relative peace at home before venturing south to face TF58)
If the war still happens, would be interesting to ponder the effects of more plentiful oil for the navy in the 1942 operations, and also things like a well trained and with suficient fuel First Mobile Fleet facing the americans in 1944 (they could train in relative peace at home before venturing south to face TF58)
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Admiral Fischer
Banned
Sounds familiar. Heard similar things before from someone I would not dare to name.
Long story short, in the militarists' mind things went to the other way. The Toseiha wanted to strike China because they saw KMT as the main threat to the Japanese domination in Manchuria. The Kodoha wanted to invade Soviet Union for same reason, in their eyes the Russians were the main threat.
But how thick is that line when the hatred for the Chinese and basically everyone is so deep? Wasn't Japan basically still at war with China since invading Manchuria? How can one cool off the IJA without becoming less fascist and imperialistic? There is no reason to do that as of now, their chances have only improved. The will to expand only grows.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Japan already had the perfect buffers in the form of the He–Umezu and Chin–Doihara agreements by 1935. At that point it doesn't make any sense to push even further if you're trying to develop oil in "peace."
On the other hand....
I can definitely agree with this.
The post-2.26 "Toseiha" just absorbed the radical expansionist ideas of the now-destroyed Kodoha and directed towards the weaker opponent (China). Pre-1936 Toseiha never really called for expansion into China outside maintaining the lifeline in Manchuria-Mongolia and bringing China Proper into the Yen Bloc.
You mean the racial superiority complex and hatred that was fed and fueled by the war, and never existed to that level before? Your logic is like saying the British and Americans hated the "Huns" before the Germans invaded Belgium in 1914.
It started growing rapidly since Manchuria. Enough of that is clear. I may not mean hatred, but xenophobia(or whatever you know, nationalism). So many skirmishes and impossible situations developing only adding to the powder keg. It wasn't a fire yet, but the fuel was only increasing.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Those skirmishes and impossible situations are a direct result of Japan not being able to achieve autarky even with their Manchurian-Mongolian "lifeline". Liaohe development allows Japan a road to not having to fight all the time, and we're talking pre-2.26 Japan here.
Of course, there is always a chance some radical might stir up things like how the original 1931 Manchurian Incident happened, but there was certainly no inevitable conflict like what you seem to think.
Admiral Fischer
Banned
Except they didn't thought so. Never heard the the invasion of Suiyuan?
So apparently you aren't aware of Nagata's famous 'Ichigekiron'. He was the one who called for a 'striking attack' on China in June 1933.
i think you are underestimating the aggressive stance of the Japanese in that time.
Unless the IJN changes its ideas about trade protection American submarines are going to sink tankers carrying oil from Japan to the front instead of sinking tankers carrying oil from the East Indies to Japan. Also the steel works will still be producing well below their capacity because the American submarines are also sinking the freighters carrying the high quality iron ore they needed for Malaya.
With an abundant and secure supply of oil from Manchuria the Japanese will be able to put up a better defence of the home islands though. First against the American strategic bombing campaign and then the invasion. Therefore more justification for using the atom bomb.
With an abundant and secure supply of oil from Manchuria the Japanese will be able to put up a better defence of the home islands though. First against the American strategic bombing campaign and then the invasion. Therefore more justification for using the atom bomb.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
North of the Great Wall, "Mongolia". It's certainly not in the direction south towards China.
Nagata was just one faction within the anti-radical Toseiha, never mind that Ichigekiron was basically "hit China so it would cooperate in an anti-Soviet war". It was never about expansion into China.
To quote Nagata: 「 ソ連 に当たるには 支那 と協同しなくてはならぬ。それには一度支那を叩いて日本のいうことを何でもきくようにしなければならない。」 ("The Soviets cannot be struck without the cooperation of China. Therefore, China must be hit once so that it would listen to whatever Japan says.")
We're dealing with a "discovery of the century" situation here, where only the most blockheaded radical would not see the cost-benefit of expanding into China before one could fully develop the treasure trove of oil. Japan wasn't aggressive for the sake of it, it was aggressive because in its eyes, it saw no other way to survive in the protectionist world of the Great Depression. A way out in the form of oil is a godsend that completely overturns the political calculus.
You have to think from the POV of Japan to understand why finding Liaohe would be so revolutionary.