What if the Japanese discovered the Liaohe oil field?

[nbcman]

It's because the 1958 discovery was a minor one that wasn't considered sufficient for further development. Then you had the 1959 Daqing find, so Liaohe development was put on hold while "heaven and earth were overturned" to bring Daqing online.




Sakhalin's oil was much more difficult to drill and extract than Liaohe. Liaohe is far more easy, to the point you see pumpjacks all over the place as if wildcats just drilled away like there was no tomorrow.

Maybe so, but Japan did not have that much exploratory, drilling, and other necessary equipment to allow them develop any oil field quickly. A single year development of an oil field by Japan with no foreign assistance in the midst of the Depression with oil prices below a US dollar per barrel doesn't feel to be a likely result as opposed to two years or more.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

Maybe so, but Japan did not have that much exploratory, drilling, and other necessary equipment to allow them develop any oil field quickly. A single year development of an oil field by Japan with no foreign assistance in the midst of the Depression with oil prices below a US dollar per barrel doesn't feel to be a likely result as opposed to two years or more.

You mean the Japan that was able to drill kilometer deep holes in occupied East Indies to develop new fields that not even Royal Dutch Shell could? Furthermore, you do realize that Red China was behind 1930s Japan in oil exploration and drilling, yet managed to develop Daqing which was magnitudes more difficult than Liaohe?

You are seriously underestimating Japanese capabilities here.

 

[nbcman]

You mean the Japan that was able to drill kilometer deep holes in occupied East Indies to develop new fields that not even Royal Dutch Shell could? Furthermore, you do realize that Red China was behind 1930s Japan in oil exploration and drilling, yet managed to develop Daqing which was magnitudes more difficult than Liaohe?

You are seriously underestimating Japanese capabilities here.

The capabilities for Japanese oil exploration and drilling was there, but there still needs to be money and time to pay for all of the exploration, the pipelines, and the storage facilities in Manchuria. Then there needs to be money and time for more Japanese flagged tankers constructed to move the oil to Japan. Then there needs to be even more money and time to construct storage facilities for the additional crude oil, refineries, and storage facilities for refined products in Japan as historically the Japanese bought a large percentage of the refined products that they used from the US and others. Note that it took the US over two years in the midst of WW2 to construct a refinery (Cities Service Refinery 1942-1944). Are you proposing that Japan can construct a refinery in 1935 or 1936 faster than the US?

EDIT: italic text added.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

The capabilities for Japanese oil exploration and drilling was there, but there still needs to be money and time to pay for all of the exploration, the pipelines, and the storage facilities in Manchuria.

So basically divert all the useless farmer migration schemes and focus on further developing the already investment petroleum related infrastructure from the scheme to extract shale oil (it was thought of as viable, so massive investments). More importantly:

As I have said, Liaohe Oilfield is right next to major ports that were already in use.

No real need for expensive long pipelines.

Then there needs to be money and time for more Japanese flagged tankers constructed to move the oil to Japan. Then there needs to be even more money and time to construct storage facilities for the additional crude oil, refineries, and storage facilities for refined products in Japan as historically the Japanese bought refined products from the US and others.

About 50% of Japanese oil came from crude imports. Refined imports made up slightly below 40%, with the remaining 10% being domestic production (yes, Japan produced oil). Using tankers, refineries, and storage facilities for the replaced crude imports is fine enough.

 

[nbcman]

So basically divert all the useless farmer migration schemes and focus on further developing the already investment petroleum related infrastructure from the scheme to extract shale oil (it was thought of as viable, so massive investments). More importantly:

No real need for expensive long pipelines.

But there would be some pipelines to some storage facility which would have to be constructed.

About 50% of Japanese oil came from crude imports. Refined imports made up slightly below 40%, with the remaining 10% being domestic production (yes, Japan produced oil). Using tankers, refineries, and storage facilities for the replaced crude imports is fine enough.

Japan may still have to temporarily get refined imports until they can build more refineries. I couldn't find an exact figure for their domestic refining capacity in the 1930s but it appears they had ample capacity by 1941 [over 30 million barrels] from a start point of 9 million barrels in 1930 (per this document titled Japan's Oil Puzzle). But it would be better for Japan to have 0% crude imports and 20% or less refined imports by the late 1930s / early 1940s as opposed to what they had IOTL.

 

[tomo pauk]

Basically - everyone can drill for oil, connect the storages and ports with pipes, but Imperial Japan can't??
This is under-estimation of a side we don't like too much, nothing else.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

But there would be some pipelines to some storage facility which would have to be constructed.

Nothing to big, after all Japan wasted a lot building such infrastructure to get shale oil in the same region. You just have to move the investments in a slightly different direction. Essentially, this isn't "Japan needs to give up something to construct," it's "Japan making more efficient use of the same resources it had used in OTL despite engaging in a continental war."

I think I'm starting to understand why there are those who think Japan can't put up the investment: they seem to not realize that Japan poured a fortune into oil exploration and infrastructure construction for developing shale oil, before and during the war with China. Finding a working hole in Liaohe just means Japan can make more efficient and effective use of those same resources to develop an oilfield that can make it almost independent of foreign imports if it chooses to. That's why this find would have major political implications, since for the first time since the "black ships" Japan can have a net income of a strategic resource.

 

[Zachariah]

So, from what I've seen, there's not much reason why the Japanese couldn't have exploited the oil reserves at Lioahe if they'd managed to discover them, and even going with a more conservative and pessimistic (/optimistic, depending on which horse you're backing) estimate of developing the oil field to start meeting Imperial Japan's requirements over the course of the next 1-4 years, with a discovery date prior to 1935, that'd still be enough to do it by 1939. What would change as a result? For instance, how much would Japanese foreign, governmental and industrial policy change as a result of all that oil? It seems likely that a Japanese Joint Stock Oil Company would be newly established and created to produce oil in the region, in much the same manner as the Kita Karafuta Seki Kabusiki Kayasya (the Joint Stock Oil Company of Northern Sakhalin (JSOCNS)) had been back in 1927. The list of the JSOCNS's shareholders featured major Japanese companies like Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Okura Kochyo, Nihon Sekyo, and Kuhara; but its first director was the retired Admiral Nakasato, representing the interests of the IJN. Would these same companies hold shares in the new JSOCBG (Joint Stock Oil Company of the Bohai Gulf)? Or would it instead be members of those shinko zaibatsu corporations which arose as a result of Japanese industrial expansion in Manchukuo (such as Nissan)? How would be its director- would it be a member of the IJN, or a member of the IJA instead? And just how much power and influence would this company, and the Zaibatsu conglomerates involved, be able to wield, both in Japan and further afield, as a result of all that oil wealth? One has to wonder- even if Imperial Japan might be more resistant to authoritarian military dictatorships ITTL, due to great wealth, prosperity and self-sufficiency, mightn't it also be more vulnerable to increasing corporatocracy?

 

[marathag]

Basically - everyone can drill for oil, connect the storages and ports with pipes, but Imperial Japan can't??
This is under-estimation of a side we don't like too much, nothing else.

The difference that Nations all could do those things, but it would have cost far more, and take longer than paying the Majors to to do it, let alone the fact that a Barrel of US Crude was 65 cents in 1931.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

The difference that Nations all could do those things, but it would have cost far more, and take longer than paying the Majors to to do it, let alone the fact that a Barrel of US Crude was 65 cents in 1931.

One has to wonder why Japan bothered to waste millions on developing shale oil.

 

[chrnno]

One has to wonder why Japan bothered to waste millions on developing shale oil.

I am more wondering why the Japan that wasted millions developing shale oil wouldn't spend anything in developing Liaohe oil field. Also whether they mean Japan will still waste those millions and leave the oil field sitting there or spend them in something else.

 

[Loghain]

IMHO There would still be war with China, due to border But it would be over in about a Year. a short war that see japanese push china get acceptable peace treaty and stomp on the most unhinged part of Army to ensure they dont do this again. you wont propably avoid one more conflict but I doubt you get more than limited war

 

[Admiral Fischer]

One has to wonder- even if Imperial Japan might be more resistant to authoritarian military dictatorships ITTL, due to great wealth, prosperity and self-sufficiency, mightn't it also be more vulnerable to increasing corporatocracy?

Chances are slim, IMO. After the Great Depression all the blame for the economic woes went to the Zaibatsu groups, and by the time Manchukuo was established everyone in Japan, I mean every single political factions, from the military to party politicians, and the public opinion loathed at business leaders and their evil political influences.

And more over, in absolutely all cases, autarkic 'self-sufficiency' economy never brings wealth and prosperity.

 

[mrmandias]

How much of it can be extracted with 1930s technology?

The last time we had this discussion, the consensus was that the necessary extraction techniques weren't developed until the 1950s.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

The last time we had this discussion, the consensus was that the necessary extraction techniques weren't developed until the 1950s.

How did that consensus came about? Was it because of Daqing, which was and is still one of the deeper wells?

 

[Anderman]

How did that consensus came about? Was it because of Daqing, which was and is still one of the deeper wells?

This is the first topic about the Liaohe field i remember all others were about the Daqing field. And the consensus i remember is that the Daqing was that the japanese didn´t had the technology for it and that the Liaohe could be done.

Btw you beat me with this i wanted to start a topic about the Liaohe field too

Edit: spelling

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Assuming they could extract oil from Liaohe field, what would they do with the extracted oil? Liaohe basin mainly produces heavy crude oil. Which are, by the way, difficult to transport via pipeline because of density and viscosity.

Assuming they could transport oil somehow, then you have to produce fuel from those. To produce fuel you need to crack crude oil to obtain gasoline and diesel. And both can be found in light crude oil. By cracking you can extract those from heavy crude oil too but at much reduced rate and hence much inefficient than just importing light crude oil. Advanced cracking technologies like Fluid catalytic cracking was developed in America and first introduced only in 1937, so Japan in 1933 would have no access to such process. In some cases the crude oil may contain no gasoline fraction at all.

Assuming Japan could just adjust to low-quality crude oil somehow, then you have to produce fuel for military use, and they need to be high-octane. To produce high-octane fuel you need high quality crude oil, like those from Kettleman Hills field, which alone produced 90% of Japanese oil imports from America, with API at 39 these were Japan's standard crude oil for military usage. And just refining those oil is not enough, you mix iso-octane in to achieve 90+ octane rating. Iso-octane is produced from isobutene, which can be obtained from waste gas generated by cracking light crude oil.

Which means you still need to import AAA+ rank crude oil from America to fuel war machines.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I'd like to point out that those Japanese militarists weren't known for such thoughtful actions, they provoked the Soviet Union when the Second Sino-Japanese War was on its full-swing and openly ignored American threats when they occupied French Indochina, wanted Stalin to mediate peace etc, the list goes on. They acted on their naive, wishful, and often stupid ideas. As for IJA wanting to avoid a war, see Trautmann's peace negotiations.

In my opinion, it was the Soviet Union who coerced Japan into conflict. The escalations at Lake Khasan and the Amur River islands were both deliberate provocations by the USSR. This reached its culmination with Japan getting its hand slapped in Mongolia when the army foolishly overplayed its hand.

If we're using 1935 as a starting point they'll probably get get the wells drilled and the refining capacity set up by mid-late 1938. China might still get invaded, but I doubt Japan gets in a really offensive posture with the west when they've got the USSR so much closer to their oil supply.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

In my opinion, it was the Soviet Union who coerced Japan into conflict. The escalations at Lake Khasan and the Amur River islands were both deliberate provocations by the USSR. This reached its culmination with Japan getting its hand slapped in Mongolia when the army foolishly overplayed its hand.

If we're using 1935 as a starting point they'll probably get get the wells drilled and the refining capacity set up by mid-late 1938. China might still get invaded, but I doubt Japan gets in a really offensive posture with the west when they've got the USSR so much closer to their oil supply.

Both Khasan and Khalkhin Gol started with Japanese military escalation, and in the case of Khasan the Japanese military action was sanctioned by the General Staff Office in Tokyo to "test the Soviet will to fight". I'd count that as 'militarist provocation'.

Disregarding drilling and refining part, I have pointed out this before but to repeat, the fact that the USSR is so close to their oil supply is actually going to strengthen the militarist argument. They thought the Chinese and the Russians to be imminent threats to the Japanese position in Manchuria, and because Manchuria is so precious to Japan they wanted to eliminate one of these threats by force. They were willing to go war just to secure Manchuria without oil, now what would they do with Manchuria with oil?

 

[The Gunslinger]

Both Khasan and Khalkhin Gol started with Japanese military escalation, and in the case of Khasan the Japanese military action was sanctioned by the General Staff Office in Tokyo to "test the Soviet will to fight". I'd count that as 'militarist provocation'.

Disregarding drilling and refining part, I have pointed out this before but to repeat, the fact that the USSR is so close to their oil supply is actually going to strengthen the militarist argument. They thought the Chinese and the Russians to be imminent threats to the Japanese position in Manchuria, and because Manchuria is so precious to Japan they wanted to eliminate one of these threats by force. They were willing to go war just to secure Manchuria without oil, now what would they do with Manchuria with oil?

Lake Khasan started when Soviet soldiers occupied the heights and then the Japanese responded.

I do think that the war with China still happens because the oil won't change the strategic reality on the ground that quickly but I don't think they'll push as hard for war with America because America won't be nearly the strategic threat that the USSR will be.