What if the Japanese discovered the Liaohe oil field?

[Admiral Fischer]

North of the Great Wall, "Mongolia". It's certainly not in the direction south towards China.

Actually, the invasion of Suiyuan was all about advancing towards south. The "Mongolian" army started their campaign from Bailingmiao, and invaded Suiyuan from north.

Nagata was just one faction within the anti-radical Toseiha, never mind that Ichigekiron was basically "hit China so it would cooperate in an anti-Soviet war". It was never about expansion into China.

To quote Nagata: 「 ソ連 に当たるには 支那 と協同しなくてはならぬ。それには一度支那を叩いて日本のいうことを何でもきくようにしなければならない。」 ("The Soviets cannot be struck without the cooperation of China. Therefore, China must be hit once so that it would listen to whatever Japan says.")

AND hence he advocated invading China and establishing the Japanese domination there.

 

[marathag]

Red China started developing in 1969, with production starting in 1970.

Right from you chart

from discovery in 1958 to Production after 1972

So I'm saying if discovery in 1932, they get Oil flowing in 1946, for useful amounts

Even if they beat that, they still have to build that infrastructure to move that Oil. That costs money to do, what does Japan skimp on to do this? where does the financing come from?

Relations between the US and Japan were cordial, even friendly after the US was the largest donor of Aid after the Great Earthquake, and delivered Oil at low costs. You need a have decade of IJA shenanigans in China to ruin that good will.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

Actually, the invasion of Suiyuan was all about advancing towards south. The "Mongolian" army started their campaign from Bailingmiao, and invaded Suiyuan from north.

Again, Mongolia =/= China Proper. Also, which direction is Siyuan from Manchuria?

AND hence he advocated invading China and establishing the Japanese domination there.

Regime change does not really equal the rape/plunder/enslave thing lionheart was referring to.

Right from you chart

from discovery in 1958 to Production after 1972

So I'm saying if discovery in 1932, they get Oil flowing in 1946, for useful amounts

Do note that Red China started development in 1969. They did find it in 1958, but they were focusing on Daqing and other finds first, thus the 11 year of inactivity. Quoting no other than CNPC:

"On September 9, 1969, a high-yield industrial oil and gas flow was obtained from well Xing-1 located in the western sag of the Liaohe depression, kicking off the mass exploration and development of the Liaohe Oilfield."

Also, the paper from where the chart came from: "Chinese oil production prior to 1960 was practically nonexistent. Xinjiang, Liaohe were discovered in late 1950s, but only a few sites produced petroleum and there was a widespread shortage of petroleum products."

Liaohe's proper development was from 1969.

Even if they beat that, they still have to build that infrastructure to move that Oil. That costs money to do, what does Japan skimp on to do this? where does the financing come from?

As I have said, Liaohe Oilfield is right next to major ports that were already in use.

Relations between the US and Japan were cordial, even friendly after the US was the largest donor of Aid after the Great Earthquake, and delivered Oil at low costs. You need a have decade of IJA shenanigans in China to ruin that good will.

And what relevance would this have in developing an oilfield that can potentially allow Japan to obtain autarky? This is the time of the Great Depression, remember?

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Again, Mongolia =/= China Proper.

And? The fact is that they were pushing towards south and hence towards China Proper.

Regime change does not really equal the rape/plunder/enslave thing lionheart was referring to.

Except the entire Japanese goal for the Second Sino-Japanese War was to force a regime change in China. Konoe's infamous declaration reflects this. And for this goal they were more than willing to condone all these rape/plunder/enslave things committed by the Japanese Army lionheart referred.

As for this weird "They wouldn't risk war with oil just discovered in Manchuria" claim, with or without oil, Manchuria was already a life line for the Empire of Japan, or at least that's how the militarists saw it, and yet already in 1933 they were discussing whether they should invade China or Siberia and risk everything they just gained in the continent. The idea that "Nagata was just one faction" is absurd to put it mildly.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Would an oil embargo be placed by the US? Wouldn't they choose another type of punishment for the war with China?

I mean, the Japanese war machine will be fueled by themselves, no worries anymore. Hell, they can expand.

IIRC the oil embargo was because the Japanese occupied French Indo China.

My guess is that the Pacific War still happens. Although Japan should be self-sufficient in oil by this point it still needs other raw materials like iron ore and rubber from the East Indies.

OTOH if synthetic rubber can be made from the type of oil the Manchurian fields produce then that's another thing they don't need the East Indies for.

This oil field, even if optimally exploited does not get Japan out of the embargo hole. The Embargo Acts covered a wide swath of economic activity. Perhaps the most important part was freezing all Japanese bank accounts in the US. Japan was not only heavily dependent on US banks for short term and long term loans/investment capitol, but the New York banking center was important for Japans conduct of its global trade. Other than London there were no good alternatives.

Cargo shipping; in 1940 over half Japans port intake and discharge of material was in foreign flagged ships. The embargos stalled the flow of raw materials and finished goods in & out of Japans ports. Conflicts between industry, the army, and navy prevented using the remaining cargo fleet to full efficiency & a crash program to build new ran up directly against the lack of steel and the need for warship construction. Even with adequate steel the merchant fleet would have not reached necessary capacity until maybe 1945. long after Japans economy collapsed.

Raw Materials: Steel. Aluminum. Alloys, Chemicals, Lumber.... were included in the embargos. Japan had built up a 6-12 month reserve, depending on the item. The ability to replenish that was problematic, lacking both transportation, cash or credit to pay with, and any sources to purchase from.

OTOH if synthetic rubber can be made from the type of oil the Manchurian fields produce then that's another thing they don't need the East Indies for.

Rubber was one item Japan had. Occupation of French Indochina gave Japan control of the Michilen rubber plantations. A fair portion for the worlds natural rubber supply.

 

[lionhead]

yeah that last quote isn't from me. I never say "OTOH"

 

[mack8]

Regarding the money part, to my mind if Japan finds and exploits this oilfield, then they don't have to pay for the oil they imported OTL, so they could buy other raw materials they need with some of that money. So the situation on that front could be a bit better.

Hm, imagine if they still had some oil in the home islands, they would not drastically curtail flight training and still send fighters to intercept recce B-29s for instance, as a sort of combat training for the rookies. Imagine some two-stage J2M5s going after Enola Gay...

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

As for this weird "They wouldn't risk war with oil just discovered in Manchuria" claim, with or without oil, Manchuria was already a life line for the Empire of Japan, or at least that's how the militarists saw it, and yet already in 1933 they were discussing whether they should invade China or Siberia and risk everything they just gained in the continent. The idea that "Nagata was just one faction" is absurd to put it mildly.

Not absurd at all. Even with the Manchurian lifeline, Japan was still very far from autarky that the militarists were pushing for and "needed to survive". This oil find would change the political calculations from "we need to expand or we're doomed" to "we need to protect this life source at all costs".

I suppose the fundamental difference is whether the militarist would expand despite now having almost everything they wanted on their turf, or would see the light and cooperate with the government in holding the goose.

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Not absurd at all. Even with the Manchurian lifeline, Japan was still very far from autarky that the militarists were pushing for and "needed to survive". This oil find would change the political calculations from "we need to expand or we're doomed" to "we need to protect this life source at all costs".

It was never "We need to expand or we're doomed". Their mindset was always like "To keep the Main Islands safe we should secure Korea, and to keep Korea safe we should secure Manchuria, and to keep Manchuria safe we should secure China/Siberia!" and on, and on, and on.

Now that they have an oil field in Manchuria they have another reason to keep Manchuria safe, in their own way.

(...) or would see the light and cooperate with the government in holding the goose.

lol

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

It was never "We need to expand or we're doomed". Their mindset was always like "To keep the Main Islands safe we should secure Korea, and to keep Korea safe we should secure Manchuria, and to keep Manchuria safe we should secure China/Siberia!" and on, and on, and on.

Same thing.

Now that they have an oil field in Manchuria they'll have more reason to keep Manchuria safe, in their own way.

At the cost of being unable to develop said oilfield? You do realize that IJA knew a war with China would delay the industrialization drive in Manchuria, but had to commit since there was the whole issue of saving face? The oilfield would provide the face for not engaging in war.

lol

Or we can always just pull 2.26 a bit earlier and have the government+navy+emperor crush the army into submission. After all, who is going to pull up the funds to develop the oil?


Not sure if there is any point in continuing the discussion since it's inevitable you would just go with "but Japan being Japan would still invade".

 

[Admiral Fischer]

Same thing.

Not really. They weren't acting on desperation, ("DOOMED") they had just one objective and that was to secure new conquest to keep and stabilize their previous gains.

At the cost of being unable to develop said oilfield? You do realize that IJA knew a war with China would delay the industrialization drive in Manchuria, but had to commit since there was the whole issue of saving face? The oilfield would provide the face for not engaging in war.

I'd like to point out that those Japanese militarists weren't known for such thoughtful actions, they provoked the Soviet Union when the Second Sino-Japanese War was on its full-swing and openly ignored American threats when they occupied French Indochina, wanted Stalin to mediate peace etc, the list goes on. They acted on their naive, wishful, and often stupid ideas. As for IJA wanting to avoid a war, see Trautmann's peace negotiation.

Or we can always just pull 2.26 a bit earlier and have the government+navy+emperor crush the army into submission. After all, who is going to pull up the funds to develop the oil?

Not seeing your point here.

Not sure if there is any point in continuing the discussion since it's inevitable you would just go with "but Japan being Japan would still invade".

Please go on.

 

[marathag]

And what relevance would this have in developing an oilfield that can potentially allow Japan to obtain autarky? This is the time of the Great Depression, remember?

And US producers had a glut, prices were low, and all delivered in US Hulls as a bonus.

The Autarky drive started later, after they started pissing off all of their neighbors in the drive to take over China

That field was no Spindletop, just waiting for somebody to drive in a tentpeg and the resulting gusher.

 

[marathag]

Hm, imagine if they still had some oil in the home islands, they would not drastically curtail flight training and still send fighters to intercept recce B-29s for instance, as a sort of combat training for the rookies. Imagine some two-stage J2M5s going after Enola Gay...

More fuel wouldn't save the pilots that died '42-45 in other Theaters, and the factories that would have made the various napkin designs would have still been firebombed at night over the previous year.

 

[CalBear]

As if Japan had any sort of coherent idea of what the goal when blundering into a continental war.

You might find it worthwhile to actually look into why that war started.

Play the ball.

Do not personalize this sort of argument.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

That field was no Spindletop, just waiting for somebody to drive in a tentpeg and the resulting gusher.

Then show me any evidence that it wasn't. So far all we have is your words against CNPC and oil experts.

Play the ball.

Do not personalize this sort of argument.

Yes sir.

 

[raharris1973]

Clearly the current argument is at an impasse, however there is enough variability so that timelines on a consolidation strategy and another alternative based on land expansion could both be plausible. Obviously Smith's heart is more into the consolidation story while others would lead the conquer buffers timeline.

 

[marathag]

Then show me any evidence that it wasn't. So far all we have is your words against CNPC and oil experts.

They missed it OTL in the '30s, and later the long delay in getting that field to produce after discovery

 

[Anderman]

Strange that it took so long after Wikipedia the production of the Daqing field started about a year after discovery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daqing_Oil_Field

 

[nbcman]

Historically, the Japanese took about 2 years to bring the first Sakhalin oil wells (Okha) into production but it took more than 10 years to bring other wells on Sakhalin Island into production. So even if the Japanese find the oil at the end of 1935, minimal production will not begin until the end of 1937 at the earliest, assuming the Japanese can fully fund the development. Note that development of the Sakhalin oil wells were a joint venture with the Soviets so there were two countries sharing the costs.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

Strange that it took so long after Wikipedia the production of the Daqing field started about a year after discovery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daqing_Oil_Field

It's because the 1958 discovery was a minor one that wasn't considered sufficient for further development. Then you had the 1959 Daqing find, so Liaohe development was put on hold while "heaven and earth were overturned" to bring Daqing online.

Historically, the Japanese took about 2 years to bring the first Sakhalin oil wells (Okha) into production but it took more than 10 years to bring other wells on Sakhalin Island into production. So even if the Japanese find the oil at the end of 1935, minimal production will not begin until the end of 1937 at the earliest, assuming the Japanese can fully fund the development. Note that development of the Sakhalin oil wells were a joint venture with the Soviets so there were two countries sharing the costs.

Sakhalin's oil was much more difficult to drill and extract than Liaohe. Liaohe is far more easy, to the point you see pumpjacks all over the place as if wildcats just drilled away like there was no tomorrow.