The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL

Chapter 165 - The European Union
The European Union

The new Prime Minister France, Jacques Soustelle, backed up by the putchists, openly mourned the death of Charles de Gaulle in the "tragic accident" that claimed his life. Although Soustelle argued that he would be "accelerating Gaullism", he immediately repudiated the Tehran Accords that had already been signed by the Soviet Union and Republic of China, most of Europe immediately cheered the new French government, unpopular at home it was. Most delighted were the West Germans.

Along with Italy, West Germany was the second largest economy in Europe not involved in the grotesquely destructive Three Years War, bringing with it a massive economic boom as West Germany exported machinery to power the war machines of the rest of Western Europe. Unlike the largest economy, Italy, West Germany was admitted as an EEC member in good standing, giving it easy export markets in the rest of Western Europe. Although the West German economy had been somewhat disappointing in the 1949-1956 period due to greatly strained Franco-German relations, the economy quickly recovered at a rapid pace under the National Front government. However, this was unable to erase the deep unpopularity of the West German government. The left loathed Achenbach, especially after his connections to ex-Nazis and involvement in the Holocaust was revealed shortly after he began his tenure (he refused to resign). The right wasn't enamored, especially after Achenbach had allowed the Saar Republic to leave without a fight (Achenbach had the sense to realize that a fight with France wasn't really winnable). Interestingly, his belief that the Saar was nowhere as economically important as the French believed was generally proven correct -as the West German economy continued to soar even without the Saarland. In the process, Achenbach more or less created a precedent of outsourcing almost all major military decisions to the Bundestag itself, which was allowed to establish military-to-military relations with other European armies without civilian oversight. Although with...some sympathies to the past regime (West German textbooks were infamously whitewashed in those five years), Achenbach otherwise governed as a very typical Europeanist right-wing liberal. Going in the 1962 elections, Achenbach was deeply unpopular - a fact that boomeranged on him when to the shock of Europe, the "Coalition" (the term quickly given in West Germany to the nearly permanent alliance between the National Front, CDU, and CSU) lost their majority, plummeting from 60% of the popular vote and 74% of seats - to 41% of the popular vote and 48% of the seats.

The Social Democrats notably had 50% of the popular vote and 46% of the seats, which caused the party to push its leader, Willi Birkelbach, to be nominated Chancellor. The SPD had notably grown much more radical in the last few years, as former Chancellor Wehner was even made persona non grata after he sided with SPD members who called for "reform capitalism" instead of nationalizations. Ironically, most Wehner acolytes were unceremoniously expelled from the SPD - forced to form the incredibly minor Democratic Worker's Party, which more or less stood for those principles. [1] With 9% of the popular vote and 6% of the seats, they hilariously held the balance of power...essentially having a strong reason to hate both sides. Another constitutional crisis brewed in West Germany as the Coalition demanded that the largest party (which they claimed was the Coalition, even though they were a coalition of several parties) was entitled the Chancellor's Office by virtue of German parliamentary precedent - while the SPD-DAP claimed they had over 50% seats. However, they hadn't actually worked out a coalition - since the DAP[2] only agreed to support the SPD for supply purposes. Notably, the King of Germany, Albrecht I, refused to take sides in the dispute. He was normally inclined to side with the right-wing coalition due to being personally right-of-center - but the last time he officially signaled support for a right-wing cause (he had signaled passive assent to the 1957 coup) directly led to the Bonn Massacre, which greatly distressed the King and caused him to swear off working with "crypto-Nazi American-funded militarists", as he disparagingly referred to them in a then-confidential diary. Another stand-off reminded Germans of the bloody days in 1957, especially after Supreme Commander of NATO Hans Speidel hinting that a military intervention could be found. The military notably drafted plans to also arrest the King of Germany, fearing that he would side with the SPD, though the plans would not have to be used. To break the logjam, Achenbach simply quit his position and turnedit over to his colleague Erich Mende, who although also a right-wing liberal nationalist - did not have any explicit Nazi ties and was thus far less tainted. Then, the government immediately declared they would be moving for new elections. The leftist parties protested, but under threat of another military invention, the DAP folded and agreed to new elections. In the new elections, the Coalition tied the SPD in the popular vote, roughly 44%-45%, carrying roughly 52% of the seats in the West German parliament. They would have another 5 years.

De Gaulle had resisted full economic integration of France and West Germany, largely viewing this as a West German ploy to "steal" the Saar away, something he viewed as a great prize, even as he was generally favorable to European integration. However, by 1963, it was clear that the Saar was not exactly the economic boom De Gaullle had believed. Many West German leftists moved to the Saarland in the wake of the 1957 coup...but the Saar was even less democratic! Although the legislature was elected, the executive was essentially appointed by the Council of Ministers of the Western European Union - the more or less not-super relevant successor of the Western Union (which became rather irrelevant after the creation of NATO). As a result, the Commissioner of the Saar Republic was consistently a right-wing hawk, even as the Saar constantly elected left-wing parliaments. Soustelle was both much more pragmatic than De Gaulle in some ways...and much more ambitious, realizing that he didn't have much time to make an impact. The West Germans, eager for even more European integration, signed onto Soustelle's proposal to unify the EEC with the Western European Union to create a "European Union", that would essentially be both a political entity (insofar that it would control the Saar) as well as an economic entity (it would be a customs union, continuing the EEC's rules). Soustelle, realizing that he wasn't popular at home and that the actual French parliament might unelect him if he actually asked them to vote on things, decided that the best way to make his mark in the world and restore government popularity was through bold foreign policy moves. In the European Union - he found one.

His proposal immediately gained the support of West Germany, Spain, Portugal, West Austria, Sweden-Finland, the Netherlands, and Belgium (which drew increasingly close to France due to shared colonial chaos). Portugal, the Netherlands, and Belgium decided to weld their colonial projects onto the French - while West Austria, West Germany, Spain, and Sweden-Finland all joined in what they believed would be a united European anti-Communist project. For Spain and Portugal, the idea was a further way to "mainstream" their regimes, which had always sat a bit outside of the European norm, especially Spain. Luxembourg was neutral, but was forced to go along due to its small size. The only nation genuinely opposed was the Labour government of the United Kingdom under Prime Minister George Brown, which saw the new EU as a ploy to crowdfund non-British colonial empires, In contrast, Brown believed that it was necessary to slowly draw down the British Empire, a moderate move that drew ire from both the Tory ultra-right and Lib Dem left. . Brown actually went on a very drunken but surprisingly cogent tirade against the European Union that was commented upon very negatively by witnesses and spun by the Europhilic media as another example of the "deranged, drunkard Brown." Uninterested in meeting their demands, the rest of the EEC and Western Union moved on without the United Kingdom. Norway and Denmark were sympathetic, but did not immediately join. In contrast, the European Union was lambasted by the left-wing government in Italy, though many in Italy, especially centrists and right-wingers, were deeply angered that Europe seemed to be "moving on" without Italy.

The most important decision was to finally accelerate the EEC's goal of freedom of movement - by actually implementing it for the member nations. In particular, with an eye towards encouraging European control of their colonies, the remaining Dutch colonies in Southeast Asia and South America, the remaining French colonies across the world (including Equatorial Africa, Djibouti, French Guyana, and parts of the Caribbean and Pacific), the remnants of the Portuguese Empire (Angola, Macau, Mozambique, Guinea, and East Timor), and the remnants of the Spanish Empire (Spanish Guinea and Western Sahara) were all included as integral territories of their relevant nations.[3] Rwanda and Burundi were not included due to being protectorates and the Congo's ascension was delayed due to the current war - in exchange, the other powers vowed economic and military assistance to the Belgians in the Congo. Amusingly, the biggest beneficiaries of this were West Timor and East Timor (under Dutch and Portuguese control respectively) - the institution of freedom of movement and free trade between the two sides of Timor was an immediate boon to locals. The results in the rest of the colonies...were far less positive.

In general, at least to the voters of most European countries, the new European Union was widely popular, especially in a continent that had remembered World War I, World War II, and the Three Years War and viewed the EU as the symbol of future European unity and peace. Of course, the inter-European peace of the proposed EU was based inherently on violence in other continents, but that aside, in many ways, it rescued the political fortunes of both Soustelle's Neo-Gaullists and the West German "Koalition." Soustelle wasn't actually popular, but being labeled the father of the European Union at least made him hated much less, allowing him to actually run a semi-functional government before the expected 1964 elections. Anti-war activists in Belgian were thoroughly weakened as the population now rallied behind a war in the Congo that they believed they could win, especially as the chaos in the British Empire scared continental Europeans into the opposite direction. Once again, the biggest European beneficiary might have been Sweden, which swiftly began to recover due to a variety of preferential rules meant to help the devastated nation.
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[1] More or less analogous to the OTL Godesberg Program.
[2] Unfortunate acronym, but unintentional
[3] In previous updates I bleieve, the Spanish gave up Morocco, the Dutch most, but not all, of Indonesia, and the Portuguese Goa. The French let most of West Africa go, but retained Equatorial Africa.
 
Sweden-Finland?

...what the heck did I miss?

The Soviet Union never occupied the Aland Islands. Although overwhelmingly Swedish-speaking before the invasion of Finland, the Alands have been inundated with so many Finnish refugees, they're probably majority Finnish. Anyways, the rump Finnish government in the Aland Islands voted for union with their primary benefactor, Sweden (tremendous good will from Swedish intervention in the war) to form Sweden-Finland, which claims the entire Finnish mainland. Partly made to spite the USSR - partly because the Alands weren't just big enough to house the Finnish refugees and most of them live in Mainland Sweden.
 
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It's really come to my attention that I've probably made a mistake on this TL. No retcons needed (thankfully, that was a pain in the butt), but I'll have to go a little out of order here. Realized the 1960-1963 years are really lacking incredible amounts of detail, so I'm just going to basically begin slotting in tons of chapters between Chapter 130 and Chapter 131. My goal is to slot in at least 10 chapters.

ToDo List: Ch 132-139 (pre-1963), Ch 151-152 (1962/1963)
 
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Chapter 132 - Begin's Peace
Begin's Peace
The PVA (the "volunteer" branch of the PLA)'s defeat in the Battle of Haifa was a shock for the North Chinese. Although overwhelmingly superior in materials, the socialist armies were repulsed from the city center of Haifa in a dramatic rout. Although human casualties were much lower on their side (around 7,000 North Chinese and Kurdish troops perished in the grueling urban battle that lasted almost three months - compared to nearly 30,000 Israeli soldiers, paramilitaries, and civilians), the speed of the rout meant they had lost much of their heavy equipment, in particular artillery and trucks, to the Israelis. The power balance of the war had swung dramatically, as a clear break in North Chinese and Syrian relations had emerged. The refusal of the Syrians to help with the offensive doomed it, causing the North Chinese to castigate their former Syrian allies. This immediately opened up a strategic dilemma for the North Chinese. Their areas of influence in the Middle East...largely weren't contiguous. The North Chinese-backed government of Judeopalestine (which then rejected an offer by the Syrians to "unify") had no borders with the Communist Iraqis in Iraqi Kurdistan. The North Chinese for their part had decided on striking a peace with Israel - largely in fear that the Syrians would roll their territories up.

North China was unaware of the Syro-Israeli accord, so although it had rushed to negotiate a peace with Israel as soon as possible. Little did they know that the Israelis and Syrians had already signed an agreement to match whatever terms were reached with North China - which in North Chinese haste, were fairly generous to Israel. The North Chinese completely evacuated the suburbs of Haifa, agreed on a DMZ zone that would help the Israelis more (since Haifa was so close to the border), and withdrew completely to North Israel, their new satellite state of Judeopalestine. Although Israeli Maki Party member Meir Vilner was made the ceremonial President of the new nation, the North Chinese selected Sino-Russo-Jewish Arabist, Yevgeny Primakov. In particular, the Judeopalestine project wan'ntparticularly popular among any of the natives, simply being too anti-Israeli for the Jews (who survived Syrian ethnic cleansing) and being too pro-Jewish for many of the local Arabs. Hilariously, the North Chinese almost borrowed directly from the rhetoric of Manchukuo to speak of the "concord of races." Fearing from both being attacked by the Israelis or the Syrians, Judeopalestine quickly became a highly militarized fortress state, far poorer than its neighbor to the South.

Survival was no great reward: now the state of Israel was flooded with Jewish refugees from Northern Israel, which had lost almost half of its Jewish population to massacres and expulsions by the victorious Syrians. Israel seemed irrevocably wounded - and with the Kingdom of Egypt, not friendly towards Israel but not also dedicated to destroying it, widely expected to fall to a far more radical anti-Western movement, The future of the small Jewish state seemed very precarious. But the same issue that Menachem Begin took advantage of to save Israel - the Sino-Syrian split, seemed to be tearing apart the entire Eastern bloc. Begin understood that the existence of Judeopalestine in the North was essentially a buffer between Israel and Syria - the Syrians had gotten surprisingly little from the whole affair besides domestic mass support. In a sense, from a pure realpolitik perspective, this actually made the two of them natural allies. The new President of Syria, Mustafa Tlass, was completely "in" on the secret agreement. Begin's solution to the mass influx of refugees from the North...was to settle them in the Sinai Peninsula, as the Israelis continued to fortify the Suez Canal, having abandoned the rest of Egypt for the British and Royalist Egyptians to take care of. In many ways, the Israeli presence in Egypt had never been helpful in any way whatsoever - the mere fact that the Royalist Egyptians were seen as being aided by the hated Israelis torpedoed their public support.[1] The Israelis, aided generously by the Kennedy Administration, quickly resupplied their army with the help of Americans and French, pushing the small state away from their former partners, the British (who were just seen as ineffective). As part of this deal, the Israelis failed to lend expected aid to Britain, instead focusing in their multi-year military mobilization.

Begin, who was hailed as Israel's savior and enjoyed sky-high approval ratings, especially because the general public was not aware of what he had done to get the Syrians off their backs. After the end of the Syro-Israeli War, the Syrians had thrown their army immediately supporting the Iraqi Nationalists under Fuad al-Rikabi.[2] This actually confused the Israelis - as most of the technology transferred to the Syrians as part of the deal were mechanized, armored, and aircraft technology, including long-range missiles and bombers, which didn't seem particularly helpful in the actual war in Iraq, which was largely waged between infantry militias in close urban areas. Israeli war planners generally concluded they had a few years of breathing room before the Syrians would turn on them - they expected this to happen in 1962/1963. They then expected a few more years, perhaps 1964/1965, when the Kingdom of Egypt would fall to be replaced by some kind of anti-Israel regime that could partner up with the Syrians. In short - the Israelis believed they had breathing room - but also that their position would get worse and worse unless they prepared now.

The postwar years in Israel were generally marked by a rapid drop in the quality of living for most working Israelis. Begin generally was unhappy with the national economy of Israel, feeling it insufficient to support a modernized army. With his massive postwar popularity, Begin unleashed a wave of free market reforms, including privatizations, opening up for American investment, and lifting of price controls. Combined with the extremely high human capital of the Jewish state, the Israeli economy began to skyrocket even as social inequality and poverty also skyrocketed. However, instead of plowing the fruits of large economic gains towards a European-style welfare state, Begin actually slashed welfare spending dramatically, redirecting almost all revenue gains towards a booming military-industrial complex that he believed was necessary to arm the IDF of the future. Begin also basically cut off most welfare programs targeted towards Israeli Arabs - partly because the Arab Israeli population had dropped significantly (most of them lived in North Israel), partly just because he no longer viewed them as compatible with the Jewish state.
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[1] Reminding myself to do an Egypt update.
[2] Reminding myself to do an Iraq update.
 
However, instead of plowing the fruits of large economic gains towards a European-style welfare state, Begin actually slashed welfare spending dramatically, redirecting almost all revenue gains towards a booming military-industrial complex that he believed was necessary to arm the IDF of the future. Begin also basically cut off most welfare programs targeted towards Israeli Arabs - partly because the Arab Israeli population had dropped significantly (most of them lived in North Israel), partly just because he no longer viewed them as compatible with the Jewish state.

This is going to be pretty destructive to the Israeli state's cohesion in the long run - it's like to exacerbate tensions between Israelis of different backgrounds and identities, as people rely more on their social connections than on the state.
 
I should think that Israeli emigrants will be on the rise in the next few years. Some of those people being redirected toward the Sinai are just as likely to make a new home as they are to jump ship, if they can.
Their recent history shows just how quickly things may change for them.

Doing this badly in a war and having their own geopolitical position erode so thoroughly might create a growing Zionist Skepticism. The strong ideological shift in he government are also going to alienate some of the more left sections of the population. It's only the 60s, even if the Soviet Union has turned off most of those people their political instincts can't have done a 180 complete enough to just dismantle the safety net.

This is going to be pretty destructive to the Israeli state's cohesion in the long run - it's like to exacerbate tensions between Israelis of different backgrounds and identities, as people rely more on their social connections than on the state.

Yeah, however popular Begin happens to be at the moment, this historical moment is probably not going to be remembered well and the political/economic fallout is going to follow every successive government afterward.
Those Israelis that can't hack it in the Begin Era are either going to get rowdy or get going. Maybe a net-immigration deficit? Or just population stagnation? A large part of Israel's reputation is wrapped up in an aura of invincibility. Whether true or not, to the average person Israel OTL looks safe and stable.

Having an internal refugee crisis, hundreds (thousands?) of your people put to the sword and having lost territory probably won't sit well. Especially in a world where every other colonial project seems to be going up in flames. Israel is probably starting to look like Algeria or Rhodesia, an enclave on borrowed time with unsustainable internal politics.
 
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This is going to be pretty destructive to the Israeli state's cohesion in the long run - it's like to exacerbate tensions between Israelis of different backgrounds and identities, as people rely more on their social connections than on the state.

In the long-term definitely, but in the short-term, Israel is basically on a war footing so I don't think it's really hitting people yet.

I should think that Israeli emigrants will be on the rise in the next few years. Some of those people being redirected toward the Sinai are just as likely to make a new home as they are to jump ship, if they can.
Their recent history shows just how quickly things may change for them.

Doing this badly in a war and having their own geopolitical position erode so thoroughly might create a growing Zionist Skepticism. The strong ideological shift in he government are also going to alienate some of the more left sections of the population. It's only the 60s, even if the Soviet Union has turned off most of those people their political instincts can't have done a 180 complete enough to just dismantle the safety net.

Yeah, however popular Begin happens to be at the moment, this historical moment is probably not going to be remembered well and the political/economic fallout is going to follow every successive government afterward.
Those Israelis that can't hack it in the Begin Era are either going to get rowdy or get going. Maybe a net-immigration deficit? Or just population stagnation? A large part of Israel's reputation is wrapped up in an aura of invincibility. Whether true or not, to the average person Israel OTL looks safe and stable.

Having an internal refugee crisis, hundreds (thousands?) of your people put to the sword and having lost territory probably won't sit well. Especially in a world where every other colonial project seems to be going up in flames. Israel is probably starting to look like Algeria or Rhodesia, an enclave on borrowed time with unsustainable internal politics.

Israel is definitely going to be a much less appealing place to move for sure. Since it's no longer a super prosperous society by developed nation standards - it's increasingly becoming a military fortress state (an army with a nation). I'm not sure about population just because I don't know how much of Israel's historic population growth is natural vs. immigration.
 
Israel is definitely going to be a much less appealing place to move for sure. Since it's no longer a super prosperous society by developed nation standards - it's increasingly becoming a military fortress state (an army with a nation). I'm not sure about population just because I don't know how much of Israel's historic population growth is natural vs. immigration.
If the country becomes more hardline as a result of total war and education and welfare funding remain low, birthrates might skyrocket. Haredim have one of if not the highest birthrate in the United States i believe, so if you have a charismatic revival of traditional Judaism brought on by more sectarianism, lower education levels and comparative poverty you may find an Israel with an incredibly larger population than expected
 
If the country becomes more hardline as a result of total war and education and welfare funding remain low, birthrates might skyrocket. Haredim have one of if not the highest birthrate in the United States i believe, so if you have a charismatic revival of traditional Judaism brought on by more sectarianism, lower education levels and comparative poverty you may find an Israel with an incredibly larger population than expected

Definitely possible, though I don't think education rates would actually drop, even if the focus of such education would shift towards things viewed as militarily valuable. Also, there might also be a lot less tolerance for the Haredim considering the national desire to conscript as many people as possible and all of that. There's a term in Israel called the "status quo" that I think might be jeopardized.
 
Chapter 132.5 - Syro-Israeli War Wikibox
Syro-Israeli War Wikibox

syroisraeliwar.png
 
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haha, remember when i said no more retcons, that was probably a lie, I'm going to have to retcon Iran but that's really just one or two chapters and the effects won't be large enough to force other retcons elsewhere.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
If the country becomes more hardline as a result of total war and education and welfare funding remain low, birthrates might skyrocket. Haredim have one of if not the highest birthrate in the United States i believe, so if you have a charismatic revival of traditional Judaism brought on by more sectarianism, lower education levels and comparative poverty you may find an Israel with an incredibly larger population than expected
The problem is that Haredim aren't conscripted and often rely on state support.
 
The problem is that Haredim aren't conscripted and often rely on state support.

Yeah, that's why I mentioned the religious-secular status quo might be threatened. A more militaristic Israel does not mean an Israel that is more religious - if anything, it means the opposite. ITL Israel is probably heading towards being less, not more, accommodating of devoutly religious groups.
 

Deleted member 117308

This seems to be a very dark timeline. It would be a cool twist if the people in east Germany dont want to unite with the west, because west Germany is not a Full democracy.
 
This seems to be a very dark timeline.
My first instinct was to refute this, but then I realized that my scale for what's "dark" is pretty skewed at this point.
North Star is the second darkest timeline that I've personally read, but I'm always comparing it to the timelines that I've heard of where there's outright major nuclear exchanges, Randian cults take over Western Politics, or Henry Kissinger becomes Secretary of State. So I guess I just count the blessings more than I probably should.

Below, My Thought Process:

Con: Stockholm was vaporized
Pro: Sweden still exists.
Verdict: Eh, this is fine.

Con: Indonesia Descending into a 3-Way Civil War
Pro: No Genocides Happened, IIRC
Verdict: Could've been worse
 
On a positive note both Chinas seem to be in a better position than OTL. Also Iran and Afghanistan will likely avoid their OTL fate
 
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