Well that's a great way to get @'ed :p

Hahahaha, if it weren't, there would be no need for me to ask not to get tagged, after all x'Dx'D

But in all seriounsess: there are multiple great Entente-victory TLs on this site (Salvador here is authoring one himself), whereas the "Germany does better than OTL" timelines are usually whimsical, not rigorous, and lose steam very early because they lack the set up to deal with interesting long-term counterfactuals. And that's with good reason! They're much harder to pull off credibly. Now of course there are exceptions (A Day In July, another TL in my personal top three, is a great example). But on the whole, I feel like the fascinating developmental paths for German/Austrian diplomacy, domestic society, culture, and security policies after surviving the cauldron of the Great War are underexplored among the "stardom" timelines on this site. The March Of Time will rightfully rank in there no matter which way it goes (including other possibilities we are not considering, like no war, limited war, war between different countries etc) but if it ends up bolstering the ranks of the lesser explored scenario, I'll be all the happier for it XD
 
Indeed. This is easily in my top three timelines in the post-1900 forum, so I'm pretty much holding my breath for what comes next.
Yours is a rather peculiar taste then, considering the Turtledove vote results. ^^
But I do this solely because like writing this stuff, and it's always nice to hear others enjoy it as well.

I share the analysis. Moreover, while these elites are in retrospect often lionised as glorified geniuses, they really weren't particularly smart, or prepared for the job they were responsible for. Good or great tactically at times, perhaps. But their arrogance, inferiority complex, willful disregard of modernity and wishful thinking very nearly caused the end of Germany.
If ever the Chinese maxim of "noise before defeat" held true, it was with the OTL Dynamic Duo in 1918.

Undisputable, although not exceedingly worrisome in my view - in relative terms, every other major country at the time was affected by similar delusions about the nature of modern war. Germany had to fuck up especially egregiously in order to end up where it did IOTL (as you say, not even getting people sitting in the same room, having branches of government constantly fighting each other, etc). I'll settle for an average performance and call myself lucky :p
The next bit, on the other hand...
Everyone got something right and a lot wrong, and the old Prussian generals have not suddenly received a copies of Manual SS 143 and Laffargue's pamphlet. Naming a maverick like von der Goltz as the new Head of the Military Cabinet was just the type of out of the blue decision that gradually turned the officer corps away from his father - not that there is anyone who dares to tell that to the new Kaiser just yet...

While he has kept a little better company than in OTL, his prewar views about war are still more or less as OTL - especially he has now has to wear one hefty pair of boots.

Agreed, their agency in the crisis is overstated, both in the negative and the positive sense, imho. On the other hand, I don't want to backpedal far enough to fall off the other side of the cliff and into determinism. A continuing fin de siecle would be a fascinating concept, it just would require a lot of specific groundwork to sell it properly. My entirely personal and uninformed prediction is that there will be some kind of Great War ITTL, but one we'd have trouble recognising (and hopefully a kinder one to the CP, yes I said it don't @ me o_O)

But in all seriounsess: there are multiple great Entente-victory TLs on this site (Salvador here is authoring one himself), whereas the "Germany does better than OTL" timelines are usually whimsical, not rigorous, and lose steam very early because they lack the set up to deal with interesting long-term counterfactuals. And that's with good reason! They're much harder to pull off credibly. Now of course there are exceptions (A Day In July, another TL in my personal top three, is a great example). But on the whole, I feel like the fascinating developmental paths for German/Austrian diplomacy, domestic society, culture, and security policies after surviving the cauldron of the Great War are underexplored among the "stardom" timelines on this site. The March Of Time will rightfully rank in there no matter which way it goes (including other possibilities we are not considering, like no war, limited war, war between different countries etc) but if it ends up bolstering the ranks of the lesser explored scenario, I'll be all the happier for it XD
These people have a lot of fears, plans and ideas, but no oracles to tell what the future might have in store. In retrospect it seems not that odd that von Moltke dabbled in spiritism.

Exactly, it's a low hanging fruit. What's even scarier though is how easily reversible all of these improvements are. This is still a broken institutional set up that only functions right now because of the good will of the institutional actors involved trying to paper over the cracks - yet another eerie similarity between fin de siecle and the present day, I suppose.
Reading history of this era is indeed becoming a rather scary experience these days. But it's all just pattern-recognition seeing vague similarities in a situations that are in reality completely different - at least I like to keep telling myself that.
 
Yours is a rather peculiar taste then, considering the Turtledove vote results. ^^

Eh, I think the TL's slow pace, incredibly expansive geographical coverage, and not so well known POD, combine to make it less "marketable" than other TLs. But those are also the traits that make it unique in quality, so I stand by my peculiar taste. :p

If ever the Chinese maxim of "noise before defeat" held true, it was with the OTL Dynamic Duo in 1918.

Exactly. The idea of the General Staff as institutionalised genius is hard to take seriously once you know just how much they fumbled and for what reasons.

Everyone got something right and a lot wrong, and the old Prussian generals have not suddenly received a copies of Manual SS 143 and Laffargue's pamphlet. Naming a maverick like von der Goltz as the new Head of the Military Cabinet was just the type of out of the blue decision that gradually turned the officer corps away from his father - not that there is anyone who dares to tell that to the new Kaiser just yet...

Yeah, that's why I was saying that I consider an average performance to be the best case scenario. That alone says everything there is to know about how out of touch the GS (and the institution of the monarchy) were with the reality of ruling Germany in the 20th Century. Which was hard, but perfectly doable, without clowns at the helm.

While he has kept a little better company than in OTL, his prewar views about war are still more or less as OTL - especially he has now has to wear one hefty pair of boots.

I know little of his character, especially pre war. It's hard to judge how much the Great War, abdication and defeat changed him. His willingness to work with the far right and even the Nazis if it got him restored is an extremely worrying sign, but he's yet young in 1908. He might develop along better lines, or even worse ones - hard to call from here.

These people have a lot of fears, plans and ideas, but no oracles to tell what the future might have in store. In retrospect it seems not that odd that von Moltke dabbled in spiritism.

The general mindset of all leading statesmen in that period was incredibly toxic. The belief they were in a zero sum game, a very tight race that would deliver maybe one or two winners within a few decades with everybody else being meat to butcher is such incredible ugliness to hide behind the polite, civilised façade of fin de siecle.

Reading history of this era is indeed becoming a rather scary experience these days. But it's all just pattern-recognition seeing vague similarities in a situations that are in reality completely different - at least I like to keep telling myself that.

I wish I shared your optimism. :p
 
Eh, I think the TL's slow pace, incredibly expansive geographical coverage, and not so well known POD, combine to make it less "marketable" than other TLs. But those are also the traits that make it unique in quality, so I stand by my peculiar taste. :p

I still follow a TL that has been ongoing from January 2006.

Yeah, that's why I was saying that I consider an average performance to be the best case scenario. That alone says everything there is to know about how out of touch the GS (and the institution of the monarchy) were with the reality of ruling Germany in the 20th Century. Which was hard, but perfectly doable, without clowns at the helm.
Or with at least some kind of consistency. What worried the leaders of the Powers most was the sheer unpredictability of Wilhelm II and his foreign policy.

I know little of his character, especially pre war. It's hard to judge how much the Great War, abdication and defeat changed him. His willingness to work with the far right and even the Nazis if it got him restored is an extremely worrying sign, but he's yet young in 1908. He might develop along better lines, or even worse ones - hard to call from here.
Indeed. The confused young man in 1908 is still many steps away from that path. But like Prince Chichibu, he attracts a certain kind of following.

The general mindset of all leading statesmen in that period was incredibly toxic. The belief they were in a zero sum game, a very tight race that would deliver maybe one or two winners within a few decades with everybody else being meat to butcher is such incredible ugliness to hide behind the polite, civilised façade of fin de siecle.
Poor Darwin, all he wanted to do was to eat exotic animals and travel the world.
 
I still follow a TL that has been ongoing from January 2006.


Or with at least some kind of consistency. What worried the leaders of the Powers most was the sheer unpredictability of Wilhelm II and his foreign policy.


Indeed. The confused young man in 1908 is still many steps away from that path. But like Prince Chichibu, he attracts a certain kind of following.


Poor Darwin, all he wanted to do was to eat exotic animals and travel the world.
Social Darwinism just took this up a notch, wanted to consume exotic economies and conquer the world
 
Chapter 166: Britain, Part 1: A Bonny Fighter
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Born in London 1836, Joseph Chamberlain was a son of a shoemaker, just like his father and his father before him, whereas his mother’s side had history as brewers and wholesale merchants.

Taken away from his studies to learn the trade of his father at the age of sixteen, he had to abandon his hopes for university education. He earned his spurs as a partner of Nettlefold and Chamberlain, a screw-making firm that Joe helped to rise into one of the most successful industrial enterprises of Birmingham, dominating the market through mass production. From one of the largest employers there was but a short step to politics, and to the position of major. Improving the water supply, reforming education and other social reforms as well as clearing slums, he started a political reign that lasted for over thirty years.

Lacking family connections or inherited income to sustain his political career, he relied heavily on his “Birmingham caucus”. Acting as an uncrowned king of the city, he created a distinct style for himself. He dressed impeccably, had a large golden monocle on a black ribbon. He had a staff of twenty-five people attending his twenty-four greenhouses full of orchids and other flowers, so that he could always have a fresh boutonnière for every occasion.

A vehement Radical in his early career, he denounced plutocrats and aristocrats alike. But fiery oratory and orchids, monocles and taste for expensive port were not enough to make Salisbury and Balfour forget that Joe was still a middle-class manufacturer, a self-made man whose career owed everything to screws. Joe was a new tycoon, always in a hurry, ruthless and intense in the pursuit of his political goals. “Joe, though we all love him, does not absolutely and completely mix, does not form a chemical combination with us. Why? I cannot tell, but so I think it is.

This background always showed in his politics. Joe Chamberlain approached the government as he did business: redundant parts had to be discarded so that the enterprise could focus on more productive areas. In the case of British politics, this meant taking the political system away from its landed aristocratic origins and towards a mechanism that would recognize the interests of the middle-class and industry and alleviate popular grievances that bridged social divisions and avoided class issues: welfare, defence of the nation, the Empire and the union with Ireland. Uneducated, excessive, ill-informed and unbridled democracy had to be avoided, and the people had to be managed. This political instinct led him to break with Gladstone and head for the wilderness in the Home Rule issue, leading to the creation of the Liberal Unionists.

When Salisbury had offered him any job he liked in his first government, he had assumed that as a businessman Chamberlain would have wanted to be the Chancellor of the Exchequer. And while he allowed him to take up the Colonial Office instead, he initially believed that Chamberlain’s interest in the colonies would be “entirely theoretical.” He would soon regret his decision. Chamberlain had turned into a hawkish imperialist, who dragged Britain to a bitter war with the Boer republics in Southern Africa.

Afterwards, when Salisbury offered his resignation, worn-out and ill and harrowed by accusations of nepotism, Chamberlain made his move. Salisbury had advised the lame and tormented King Edward to send for A.J. Balfour as his successor. The leader of Conservatives in the Commons for eleven years and First Lord of the Treasury for eight years, he seemed like an obvious candidate. But Balfour wanted to consult Chamberlain first. Always looking for consensus and lacking firm conviction to the post, he wanted to find compromise solutions rather than push his own agenda stubbornly. Chamberlain was the man the masses knew, best-known figure in the new Government, the one who made the weather. When he confronted Chamberlain, full of worry about the future of China, pressed on with characteristic vigour. Balfour, always the philosopher, opted to give him a chance to implement his ideas as the new Prime Minister. Like Salisbury before him, he would later on regret his decision.
 
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Chapter 167: Britain, Part II: Brummagem Bruiser
Joe’s mandate” was gained in the general elections of September 1900 by donning khaki and waving the Union Jack in a most blatant manner ("Every seat won by the Liberals is a seat won by the Boers!"), cashing in on war popularity.

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While patriotic fervour dominated in the country, a growing minority opinion in the country opposed the war. A a 38-year-old Liberal radical MP called David Lloyd George made himself known by his anti-war attitude, blaming the gold mines of Rand as the primary reason of "this commercial war for profit and predatory capitalism." He and his family paid dearly by his political views. His son was hazed and bullied out of school. His wife had to suffer insults and sneers by strangers and friends alike in London. But he kept on. Finally, as the mood in the country was riled up and antiwar meetings often turned into mass brawls between "jingoists and pro-Boers", he made a fateful decision.

He accepted an invitation to come to speak to the Birmingham Town Hall. For him to take his opposition to the Boer War to Birmingham was to attack one of the architects of Britain’s colonial policy – Joseph Chamberlain – right on his own doorstep.

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When the skilled Welsh orator was just getting warmed up with his characteristically trenchant pro-Boer, anti-war speech at Birmingham Town Hall, things quickly escalated out of control. Stained glass rained down from the upper stores of the neoclassical building, as stones and bottles begun to whirl in the air. A crowd numbering tens of thousands had surrounded the building, and now attacked the doors with a battering ram. Within minutes the demonstrators broke in, attacking everyone inside in frenzy, chanting pro-war slogans: "Traitor! Traitor! Bloody traitor! Pro-Boer! Kill 'im! Kill the bloody traitor!"

The crowd surged forward, and the small army of policemen guarding Lloyd George rallied to the corner of the hall and hacked away with their batons in a desperate last stand. The resourceful chief constable Charles Rafter kept his calm in the middle of this chaos. He ran to fetch the nearest officer who could hand over his coat and helmet. But just when Constable Rafter turned around to rush Lloyd George to the backdoor exit, a brick hurled from the outside landed down almost directly from above. Lloyd George fell like a wether struck by a butcher's hammer, and when Rafter and another Constable managed to dress him up and get him out of the scene, it was already obvious that he had suffered a severe head injury.[1] While he lived, Lloyd George was a stuttering ruin of a man, and his political career was effectively over.

It was a dark year for Britain. The Boer War continued, the Boxer troubleshad escalated into a new conflict in China. Previous January had already witnessed the tragic death of the daring young war journalist and the son of Lord Randolf Churchill, Winston, at the battle of Spion Kop[2]. The Birmingham Riot shocked the nation, but was only the latest article in a long list of bad news. Chamberlain himself was publicly outraged of "such provocation and mob rule", but privately the incident had only encouraged him to push for high office when Salisbury retired. Once there, he planned to win, and win big - both at abroad and at home. He had so much to do.

1. The riot really happened. In OTL the resourceful chief constable Charles Rafter hastily disguised Lloyd George as a policeman, and managed to escort him from the building using a back way at the last minute.
2. The bullet that in OTL "had come so close to his head that it severed the jaunty feather on his hat" flies a bit lower.
 
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The removal of Lloyd George will actually probably be an overall boon for progressive politics in Britain. Lloyd George was a brilliantly creative political thinker and a good judge of talent but he was also corrupt or something very like it. Association with DLG brought down George Barnes of Labour, discredited Robert Horne, Arthur Lee and the Geddes brothers on the Conservative side, damaged Austen Chamberlain and split the Liberal Party meaning that Reginald McKenna and Walter Runciman never got to play leading political roles again after the First World War. If Britain doesn't go to war, the butterflies will be even greater.
 
Dead Churchill certainly shakes things up.
Again, for both good and ill. Churchill was right on two very important occasions OTL: 1) At Tonypandy when he insisted on using police rather than troops against the coal miners against the views of the rest of the Cabinet; and 2) about Hitler and German rearmament.
OTOH, he gave the green light to the Gallipoli disaster, disastrously brought Britain back onto the Gold Standard and was an impediment to the British seeking an early accommodation with Indian nationalists.
 
Chapter 168: Britain, Part III: Radical Joe vs. The World
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Joe Chamberlain was open with his methods: he decided something first, and found reasons and methods afterwards. He was guided by default scepticism about established systems, foreign and domestic alike. This did not mean that he would not have employed his calculating intellect to adapt means to ends and manipulating practical details. He was good in spinning ideas he came across into arguments supporting any goal he was currently pursuing. What he lacked was the insight to think what the long-term policies of his short-term solutions might ultimately be. Whatever he did, he did with a passion. He was antagonistic and willful, and impressed von Eulenburg: “Quite the modern businessman: determined, hard-headed, unscrupulous, quick-on-the-draw but withal realistic." Lord Esher had a more critical view: "Chamberlain’s faults all come from his upbringing. Clever as he is, he has never learnt the self-restraint which everyone with his immense capacity learns at a great public school or a university.”

The ongoing Boer War had sucked up the revenues that might have enabled the government to actually finance the social welfare programs he had talked about in the beginning of his political career as the president of the Board of Trade in the second ministry of Gladstone: three acres and a cow for each agricultural labourer and compulsory purchase of land for artisans’s dwelling and compulsory free education. He had long believed that the survival of the existing economic order could only be achieved through sustained economic prosperity. And in a world of colonial expansion and imperial competition, prosperity could only be found from consolidating the imperial interests. More loosely held territories were to be placed under firm control, new areas in Africa were to be expanded into, and imperial resources were to be cultivated and managed by government-supported construction of railway networks, that would create demand for British coal, iron and rolling stock, as well as labour and materials.

The end result of such investments would certainly be creation of new markets that British trade would then sustain, providing funds for reforms back at home. At the start of his career he had publicly demanded that "the propertied classes" should take cognizance of their responsibilities and obligations to society. For the true economy lay in spending and investing in the homes, streets and schools of the working class. This would enhance the productivity of workers and build up prosperity while also “civilizing and beautifying towns and cities.”

The Empire...is being attacked on all sides, in our isolation we must look to ourselves...We must draw closer our internal relations...If by adherence to old shibboleths, we are to lose opportunities of closer union...we shall deserve the disaster which will infallibly come upon us....The tremendous issue is whether the great Empire of ours is to stand together, one free nation, against all the world, or whether it is to fall apart...losing sight of the common weal, and losing also all the advantages which union alone can give...We know that we shall have to maintain against all comers that which we possess, and we know that, in spite of the jargon about isolation, we are competent to do so...We must not allow our Jingoes to drive us into quarrels with all the world at the same time, and we must not reject the idea of alliance with those powers whose interests most nearly approximate to our own.

Soon after Joseph Chamberlain became the Colonial Secretary, he had a sudden idea that a combination of the British Empire, Germany and US should form “a new triple alliance between the Teutonic race and the two great branches of the Anglo-Saxon race.” Chamberlain faced a storm of criticism from abroad when he applied grandiose terms like “alliance” and “union” to the relations he’d like to see between Germany and the United States before any actual negotiations were even held. As Edward Grey remarked in 1899: “Joe’s speech about the German alliance (unless it was expressly dictated by the German Emperor, which I can’t believe) was disastrous. I never read anything which struck me as being more of a mess. He really must be kept out of foreign politics or he will make everything impossible, even friendship with America.”

In the informal Cabinet committee dealing with the growing Boxer troubles he left a memorandum, where Chamberlain once again found Germany a useful proxy for promoting British interests. As Britain and Germany shared the same interests in China and elsewhere, an Anglo-German compact would “guarantee our safety, by ensuring that Germany should throw herself across the path of Russia.” The principal problem for Joe Chamberlain in dealing with foreigners was that they for some unexplainable reason tended to consider international problems in light of their own interests and past experiences, as he was about to soon find out.
 
Chapter 169: Britain, Part IV: Pushful Joe and Kaiser Bill
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Chamberlain did not bother to study the times when Lord Salisbury and Lord Gladstone had previously discussed and reviewed their relations with Berlin. Closer relationship with Germany was desirable “but can we get it”, that was the question increasingly doubtful Salisbury had pondered during his last days in office. The last time there had been official talks, Holstein had pressed for concessions outside Europe, to which Salisbury had replied that Berlin “wanted too much for their friendship." And since Lord Salisbury thought that no British government could bind Parliament or its successors, and lasting formal alliances were something that “went well beyond what a democratic state could honestly promise”, how could one count on long-term commitments of Britain?

The grey eminence of German diplomacy, von Holstein, had viewed things differently. “Hardly any general treaty with England is conceivable for Germany that would not involve us in almost certain danger of war. And Germany could only exact compensation comparable to the immense risks she was running if Britain had a more accurate, that is, modest opinion of her performance.” And as long this discrepancy in the assessment of the respective strength of both Powers remained in place, agreements remained hard to reach, and cooperation was bound to be difficult and sporadic at best.

The early discussions with Germans in 1901 frustrated Chamberlain. After he had said openly in public that in his view that Britain needed Germany before even entering official negotiations, Chancellor Eulenburg soon had to inform him that at the moment Germany (read, Wilhelm II and Holstein) felt that Germany could do perfectly well without England. Chamberlain had thought that China was important enough to Germany for British help there to be worth the risk of antagonizing Russia in Europe, but had paid no heed to the fact that Britain would be unable to offer effective assistance in a short war.



Kaiser Wilhelm II was quick to point this out to his Military Cabinet:
The good Chamberlain must not forget that in East Prussia I have three Russian armies and nine cavalry divisions standing opposite to one Prussian army corps, with no Chinese Wall to keep them apart and no British battleships to help in holding them off."

The round of talks culminated when Chamberlain declared during a speech defending the Boer War in Edinburgh that if the British had in fact occasionally "acted forcefully against the enemy", there were many precedents in the military annals of various continental powers, including the conduct of German troops in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. Since the anti-British mood ran high in the Continent, such comparisons to war that had been elevated to mythical status in German nationalist, such commentary was political dynamite, and the German yellow press was soon up in arms. Despite great resentment in Berlin, Chancellor Eulenburg followed the advice of Holstein and other Foreign Office dignitaries and allowed the furor to die down. But as the negotiations had so far led to little else than a media row over the Chamberlain Boer War speech, Chancellor Eulenburg could do little to curtail the wider anti-British sentiment of the German nationalist press. Chamberlain, vain as he was, took insult from the German press smear campaigns, and cooled to the idea of a treaty with Germany. He had hardly realized how large the differences in the point of views of London and Berlin had been.[1]

It is impossible to fight the battle of Germany in this Country at the present - she is more unpopular than France!”

The two royal families were on bad terms, the growing German economy was worrying British leaders and voters alike, and the naval arms race was a popular rallying cry for mutual hostility in both countries. As the interests for further cooperation with Germany dwindled, Foreign Secretary Lansdowne preferred to keep in touch and in cordial terms with the German government, choosing to ignore the fact that a year later the Kaiser had commented his work in the Anglo-Japanese treaty to the British Ambassador Lascelles by stating that “The noodles seem to have had a lucid interval.”

Chamberlain cooled to his early eagerness to do business with Germany. He still thought that in the future it would be sufficient to arrange piecemeal settlements with Germany on colonial differences - but this approach was rebuked by Ambassador Metternich, who followed the line set by Holstein - Germany would accept either an actuall alliance or nothing at all. Wilhelm II echoed this view, and told the British ambassador that the country whose alliance was being sought might demand a high price for it.

To this Chamberlain replied that the Frenchmen had a proverb about le bonheur qui passe. Skipping the topic of a general alliance as unattainable, Chamberlain gained an agreement in the Cabinet that the best way to proceed would be the repetition of the Samoan dialogue, and settling each issue separately.

Wilhelm II, however, told the British military attaché that “Chamberlain should be taken to South Africa, marched across the continent and then shot. A firing party is what he wants.
He promptly wrote to his uncle, letting King Edward VII know how profound his irritation was. “A conglomeration of bluff, overbearing and secret insult. It was a most unlucky thing to do, and if he does not stop these elucubrations...one fine day he will wake up to see his country in the greatest of muddles ever yet seen...The press is awful on both sides, but here it has nothing to say, for I am the sole arbiter and master of German foreign policy, and the government and country must follow me even if I have to face the music. May your government never forget this and never place me in the jeopardy to have to choose a course which could be a misfortune to both them and us.”Despite this He was naturally full of goodwill towards England, in spite of all the obstructions and idiocies that London had continuously put in his path. Weltpolitik was the destiny of Germany, but it ought to be carried out with England’s cooperation. He was not quantite négligeable, for He alone was the architect of German diplomacy.

1: In OTL Bülow used the gaffe to gain Reichstag votes for the First Naval Law, and Chamberlain never forgot the way the German Chancellor insulted him in a Reichstag speech. Here von Eulenburg is more cordial, but the press smear campaign still deeply insults Chamberlain.
 
Chapter 170: Britain, Part V: Lansdowne
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After succeeding Salisbury in autumn 1900, Lord Lansdowne held the post during the eventful first five years of the century. An old Etonian who had also studied at Balliol, Lansdowne had risen to a position of eminence despite his early age, becoming the governor-general of Canada at 38 and a Viceroy of India at 43. Because his extensive holdings in Ireland oriented him to the Conservative Party, Salisbury had put his administrative experience to good use. “I shouldn’t call him clever, he was better than competent”, as Arthur Balfour described his limited, but flexible approach. He had undoubted industry, shrewdness and capacity for understanding complex international situations. Willing to compromise, accept advice and suffer temporary setbacks and defeats without losing his balance, he was an excellent negotiator. His lack of brilliance was in fact often an advantage when he sought motus vivendi with the other Great Powers of the day.

Extensive prior experience of international and colonial problems had led him to believe that foreign policy should be consistent, “lifted out of party politics and placed on a different plane.” Naturally a small élite of landed aristocracy was best qualified to safeguard this secretive world of diplomacy and national defence. Chamberlain reserved the posts of foreign and defence opposition speakers to a small inner circle of former ministers: out of 12, nine were peers or sons of peers, and eight were old Etonians.

Widely criticized for his administration of the War Office as the Secretary of War at the start of the Boer War, Lansdowne and his colleagues watched the postwar world with the firm conviction that traditional British isolationism was no longer feasible. To meet threats from some Great Powers they would have to seek agreements with others, to balance them against one another.

The end to the exploration of possibilities with Berlin in 1902 for the time being was not tragic to Chamberlain and Lansdowne, who were aware of the relative security of Britain. Both men understood the difficult geopolitical position Germany faced. Unlike Chamberlain, Lansdowne never saw the need to turn his back entirely to the possibility of an agreement. To make concessions where possible and signal strength as required by essential interests of Britain - for him, the old maxim remained tried and true.

He leaned heavily on the Permanent Under-Secretary Sanderson, one of the few old hands who could recall the mid-Victorian period and the one who had accompanied Lord Salisbury during most of his career. He alone remembered the obscure background and details of such vital international treaties as the Mediterranean agreements, and kept the original texts in his office.

In May 1901 Sanderson formulated the draft of the proposed Anglo-German defensive alliance for Chamberlain. He included a short note summarizing the difficulties of a project which he did not favour. On the German side Baron Eckardstein and the ailing German ambassador Count Hatzfeldt were fighting a diplomatic duel that further complicated matters. But Sanderson was not without sympathy: “Germany is a young power, striving for recognition as a world influence. It was inevitable that she should emulate the British and have colonial aspirations. It was unfortunate that everywhere Germany wished to expand, she will find the British lion in her path.” He remarked that despite this a policy of one-sided concession was foolish and impossible. Britain had so far been more tolerant towards German colonial aspirations, because they had been considered less threatening than those of France or Russia.

But the Germans had mistook the British attitude as a sign of weakness rather than of strength. Regardless of their folly, the German sensitivities should still be respected, and her expansion not checked where it did not clash with major British interests. As a man of an era when there were still large areas in which to manoeuvre, Sanderson still recalled the times when colonial disputes still determined the relations of the Great Powers.

Having observed the cyclical movement of the state system for more than four decades, he appeared far more unsettled by the perceived weakness of the Central Powers, particularly Germany, than by their supposed bid for world dominance and aggression. For Lansdowne and Sanders, the ebb and flow of the Anglo-German relations and even the erratic Kaiser were not particularly remarkable. Holstein and Eulenburg were neither to be taken too seriously, nor was a war between the two countries deemed inevitable. Repeatedly they sought to imagine themselves in the position of their colleagues in Berlin. Balfour commented that Germany repeatedly seemed to ignore good opportunities to realize the hegemonial plans that Berlin was accused of harbouring.

For his side, Lansdowne saw the world where heavily armed Great Powers formed and reformed combinations with and against each other with the utmost rapidity. He sought to avoid the conflict that might arise for Britain as a result. What others called muddling through with ad hoc diplomacy was a conscious policy that gave Britain room to maneuver, provided flexibility, and sought to stabilize the state's system by keeping it in flux. For if separation of Empire and the continent were abandoned, especially in dealings with Russia, colonial tensions would automatically be reflected back to Europe, where they risked intensifying into existential crises. British diplomacy had be conducted with a clear vision and subtle tact to avoid such calamities.

Lansdowne was willing to pay a good price for better relations with other countries, as he found the isolation of Britain alarming, and was anxious to reduce imperial commitments in the far corners of the globe. Convinced that Britain was suffering from imperial overreach, he sought to reduce British exposure to risk, at the very least seeking to lower the intensity and scope of such conflicts as might inevitably occur. He sought continental friends, not foes. To this end, he downplayed both perceived and actual dangers.
 
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Chapter 171: Britain, Part V: Lansdowne, Part 2 - "...only permanent interests."
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Fears of Russian advance in Central Asia and Far East during the Boxer War kept Lansdowne busy. For military and economic reasons, Britain wanted to limit Russian involvement in China, the big prize for all the imperial powers and an area where they all had repeatedly sought to slow or block one another. Additionally, the traditional British naval superiority was under threat as France and Russia expanded their naval presence in the region. Russia was thus both a global and imperial problem because of the Great Game, the old Asiatic antagonism with Britain. Britain considered three policies to deal with the problems of China, but met only limited success in the goal protecting British interests. Attempts to negotiate an understanding with Russia had failed in 1898, followed by two frustrated attempts to strike a bargain with Germany in 1898 under Salisbury and again in 1901 with Joe Chamberlain.

Afterwards Lansdowne tried again to seek a deal with Russia, but both attempts in 1901 and 1902 were fruitless. Following plans of Joe Chamberlain to check the Russians by luring Germany into the Far East met meager results, even though Landsdowne managed to get something out of the Yangtze protocol, and made sure to keep the line to Berlin open. Failing to strike a bargain with Russia or Germany, Lansdowne then led Britain to an Anglo-Japanese alliance, removing the threat of a Russo-Japanese bargain at the expense of Britain, allowing the Royal Navy to move ships away from the China Station. Lansdowne urged his hearers at the House debate not to be prejudiced in considering the Japanese alliance by any musty formulas of old-fashioned superstitions as the desirability of pursuing a policy of isolation: “The question was whether Britain should allow Japan to be wiped out by France and Russia in certain given circumstances: if the answer is “no”, may we not as well tell her so beforehand and get what we can out of the bargain?”

Restraint was also a major British motivation for the treaty. A Japan feeling more secure would be less likely to start local conflicts that might force Britain into a war with Russia, or worse yet, with Russia and France. “British officials had been largely influenced in their decision to enter into this important contract by the conviction that it contains no provisions which can be regarded as an indication of aggressive or self-seeking tendencies in the regions to which it applies. It has been concluded purely as a measure of precaution.” After the treaty had been signed, British officials welcomed the Russo-Japanese understanding on Manchuria, seeing restraint of Japan as the primary mechanism for avoiding being drawn into a Russo-Japanese conflict.

Signing the Hay-Pauncefote Treaty and recognizing the exclusive rights of Washington to build a cross-oceanic canal to Panama. meant de facto acknowledgement of US supremacy in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, solving yet another potential flashpoint with a Major Power. As he went down with his check list of international problems to be avoided and other Great Powers to be dealt with, Lansdowne started to focus to France, a major source of potential disputes that diverted available British resources to areas of secondary importance. He had good qualities for a diplomat determined to improve the Anglo-French relations after the Boer War, for Lansdowne had very close French connections. He was a descendant of great Talleyrand from his mother's side, spoke fluent French and had visited his French cousins in the continent often in his youth. As he prepared to start negotiations with the French representatives, he was about to discover that main players of British foreign policy were far from united in their vision of the preferred outcome - and that the same applied to the French side as well.
 
This background always showed in his politics. Joe Chamberlain approached the government as he did business: redundant parts had to be discarded so that the enterprise could focus on more productive areas. In the case of British politics, this meant taking the political system away from its landed aristocratic origins and towards a mechanism that would recognize the interests of the middle-class and industry and alleviate popular grievances that bridged social divisions and avoided class issues: welfare, defence of the nation, the Empire and the union with Ireland. Uneducated, excessive, ill-informed and unbridled democracy had to be avoided, and the people had to be managed. This political instinct led him to follow Gladstone in the Home Rule issue, leading to the creation of the Liberal Unionists.

'Break with' Gladstone, surely?


Good updates- and removing Lloyd-George and Churchill is a fascinating device. Be warned: Chamberlain's fractious relationship with the Dominions is my personal specialty, so I fully intend to be obnoxiously pedantic if given the slightest chance!

I have to say that I'm going to disagree with m'learned colleagues upthread and say that a Central Powers victory in WW1 is the well worn cliché of the period, and a German/British alliance generally the usual route taken to get there. This would not be the first plot twist in the timeline that has been done before, but it's the first I've seen done many times before.

That being said: I have enormous faith in this timeline, and in Karelian's writing ability. Even if my fears about the plot are proved correct, I have no doubt that the quality of the prose will remain exceptional and the author's eye for the telling detail unmatched. And, of course, nothing impresses more than an author who can take a tired plot device, twist it, and reveal that in place of a dead horse is a rearing stallion.
 
A Germano-Russian rapprochement would be interesting; gives Germany a reprieve on the Eastern Front and food, gives Russia industrial investments and security on their Western flank, and gives Britain conniptions because it's impossible to blockade Russo-German land trade in the event of a World War. Throw in Italy and have Germany break with Austria, and you could have an Habsburg nightmare scenario in which opposing armies and nationalisms tear them apart. RIG vs. BOFA -- the ascendant nationalist movements and younger nations (plus the Tsar) vs two decaying multiethnic empires, a habitually unstable Third Republic, and the British Atlas struggling to hold the world aloft.
 
'Break with' Gladstone, surely?
Yes, obviously.

Good updates- and removing Lloyd-George and Churchill is a fascinating device. Be warned: Chamberlain's fractious relationship with the Dominions is my personal specialty, so I fully intend to be obnoxiously pedantic if given the slightest chance!
Excellent! Expect a PM about this topic.

I have to say that I'm going to disagree with m'learned colleagues upthread and say that a Central Powers victory in WW1 is the well worn cliché of the period, and a German/British alliance generally the usual route taken to get there. This would not be the first plot twist in the timeline that has been done before, but it's the first I've seen done many times before. That being said: I have enormous faith in this timeline, and in Karelian's writing ability. Even if my fears about the plot are proved correct, I have no doubt that the quality of the prose will remain exceptional and the author's eye for the telling detail unmatched. And, of course, nothing impresses more than an author who can take a tired plot device, twist it, and reveal that in place of a dead horse is a rearing stallion.
Worry not and wait and see ^^

A Germano-Russian rapprochement would be interesting; gives Germany a reprieve on the Eastern Front and food, gives Russia industrial investments and security on their Western flank, and gives Britain conniptions because it's impossible to blockade Russo-German land trade in the event of a World War. Throw in Italy and have Germany break with Austria, and you could have an Habsburg nightmare scenario in which opposing armies and nationalisms tear them apart. RIG vs. BOFA -- the ascendant nationalist movements and younger nations (plus the Tsar) vs two decaying multiethnic empires, a habitually unstable Third Republic, and the British Atlas struggling to hold the world aloft.
Such a scenario would be deemed a catastrophic failure of longstanding principles of British foreign policy.
 
Chapter 172: Britain, Part VI: Donnant donnant
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After Fachoda, the French foreign minister Théophile Delcassé was infuriated about the fact that France lacked strength to evict the British from the Nile valley. He had to swallow his pride and accept the Anglo-Egyptian condominium in Sudan as well, and in return he secured British acceptance to the French imperial expansion to North-Western Africa. Fachoda was as great a humiliation to the French as any in the history of the Third Republic, and the fact that it took place in the middle of the Dreyfus Affair just fanned the flames of xenophobia in general. For Delcassé himself, it was a personal insult.

In the following years he did pretty much the same thing as Lansdowne did in the northern shores of the Channel - he revisited long-standing disputes and problems of French foreign policy, and sought to deal and solve them in the light of the nervous and unstable political climate of the new century. For continental security, he strengthened the cornerstone of French escape from the Bismarckian isolation, the alliance with Russia.

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Now officially aimed "to cover the maintenance of the balance of power in Europe" instead of merely balancing the Triple Alliance, the supplementary military agreements of 1900 included joint anti-British measures. French funding was channeled to speed up the construction of a railway to Tashkent from Orenburg. In a case of war between France and Britain, Russia would be able to move troops to the borders of the Indian frontier. In a case of war between Russia and Britain, France would in return prepare to mass 100 000 men to the Channel coast.

For colonial matters, Delcassé privately hoped for a rapprochement with Britain, but had to take the public opinion into account. The French nationalist circles remained unfriendly towards perfidious Albion. To the French public and Delcassé himself, Great Britain and Germany alike were inveterate enemies of France. As the older of the Gambon brothers summarized the public views:

The nationalist, militarist and anti-Semitic tendency springs from Parisian lower-middle class of radical origins, but above all, of rebellious tradition, whose lack of political experience leads it to manifest against all and every government. It is traditionally xenophobic and anti-Semite because of its hatred against capital. It has been reinforced during the Dreyfus affair by its absorption of the remains of the old loyalist and Catholic parties."
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Nationalist sentiment was indeed markedly strong among the clerks and students of Paris and other large towns, but the peasants and workers by and large ignored these issues. The sporadic mood of the French press, and the keenly felt vicious tone it often used when dealing with public figures such as King Edward VII maintained the mutual distrust and hostility between Paris and London, since press wars sold well.

In general the public resentment to the Boer War had ran so high in 1899 that even an understanding with Germany had seemed like nothing out of the question in spring, and Delcassé had been encouraged to seek an accord with Berlin.

After his overtures had been turned down by non-negotiable demands to accept the status quo of the French eastern border as a pretext for any further discussions, Delcassé felt that the British might be less demanding, and that he would gain little by upholding the 1894-98-era benign line towards Germany. In a speech to the Senate in April 1900, few days after the Belgian anarchist boy Sipido had wounded the future King Edward VII, Delcassé opposed the hardliner nationalists who openly cheered the assassination attempt, and instead called France and Britain to respect the dignity and rights of one another, for "France was a great European Power, that has become a colonial Power."

It was indeed true that the continued French hostility to the British occupation of Egypt and Sudan from the 1880s onwards had forced the British government to look for allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and limited the abilities of British governors to carry out financial reforms in the country.

It had for long remained the foremost goal of French leaders to evict the British from the Nile, and Delcassé knew that it would take a lot to get them abandon this idea he considered hopelessly unrealistic. During the following years Morocco and Egypt were being mentioned increasingly often in the press on both countries - just like China, where the French military expedition to Yunnan had complicated the international settlement of the Boxer War.

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The senior embassy councellor Léon Geoffray argued that Westminster politicians and the City of London, the "English governing elite", were true successors to the "nation of shopkeepers" so despised by Napoleon.

Geoffray was certain that all these men cared about was making money and conducting their businesses without interruptions. Colonial confrontations with France were therefore not acceptable for them after the South African War. Thus an agreement about imperial business would serve their interests as a strategic instrument.

This line of thought was not entirely alien to the British leaders. Men like Thomas Barclay and their business partners from chambers of commerce in Paris were all for good relations between the two powers, for trade had been the only aspect of the Anglo-French relations that had not suffered from the Boer War.

French financiers were cashing in to the war loans of Britain to profit from the high interest rates, while cross-Channel trade was also booming. The balance of trade favoured France, for Britain imported from France more than three times more than she exported. As the idea of a tariff reform started to gain ground in British politics, the French business sought to protect their trading interests. But they had little influence to the foreign policy or even the public opinion.

Delcassé was determined to promote the interests of France, as he saw them. When an international issue in the Middle East offered him a new chance to do business with Britain, he was willing to sit to the table and play along - especially because Germany was also involved.
 
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