The Fourth Shore - Italy 1940 with Il Duce

[King Augeas]

The US is still deeply hostile to Germany here. Standard Oil can try to make a quick buck, but its protests aren't going to have that much impact. They're probably calculating that Britain and Italy will argue about the oil imports that Italy really needs and come to some sort of slightly increased agreement, with tacit support from a US government keen to keep Italy out of the war, allowing them to profit. After all, the Atlantic waters are dangerous and oil shipped to Italy will not be cheap...

Soviet tankers will just be stopped. The USSR is a German friend at this point.

 

[LordKalvan]

The question should be what incentives can Italy give for relaxation of 5he Blockade.

Strange that you ask: the answer was given in the last update

 

[lukedalton]

In 1940 the RN took german Civilians off a Japanese passenger liner in the Sea of Japan . The RN was not that worried about pissing people off.

But the rest of the British goverment yes and if a RN captain do this at this moment will be probably transferred at the Falkland with the role of scarecrow...sorry to repeat myself (and the incident that you talk about happened in January 1940, when the war was in the 'Phony stage', not 'we are at risk of being invaded' phase), but the strategic situation it's changed drastically; in 1939 France was still there and everybody thought that Italy will have soon entered the war at German side...so pissing them off will have not really caused that much damage and it's better note that by the eve of the Italian dow the situation was: if you stay neutral we sell you the coal almost at costs.
ITTL now, France is gone and Italy want to remain neutral...so pissing them off it's not a smart move, not with Regia Marina having base on both side of the Sicily straits and being capable of cut the meditterean merchant route and people fearing the German invasion; so what incentives Italy can give? Simple, it not extend the war in support of Germany and trust me, at the moment it's enough.
As said London will simple look the other way if the smuggling is 'reasonable' and not too evident.

 

[hipper]

snip
ITTL now, France is gone and Italy want to remain neutral...so pissing them off it's not a smart move, not with Regia Marina having base on both side of the Sicily straits and being capable of cut the meditterean merchant route and people fearing the German invasion; so what incentives Italy can give? Simple, it not extend the war in support of Germany and trust me, at the moment it's enough.
As said London will simple look the other way if the smuggling is 'reasonable' and not too evident.

The UK’s policy in Europe was to create an oil desert so that supply’s of oil to german allies and friendly neutrals was restricted. The did this by restricting the oil stocks in adjacent Neutrals so that no surplus could be built up and sent to Germany. As soon as France fell Spain became an adjacent Neutral and had her oil stocks restricted by the British government.in spite of any fears that Franco would declare war,

To allow any oil to be imported the Spanish Goverment had to inform the UK of their oil stocks and let the British Government determine how much they should have . Italy had been in this position since 1939. if Italy starts to invrease its oil refining capacity and starts importing oil in Escorted convoys from Russia the UK will simply count the tankers and reduce the oil supplies coming into Italy from the US. By refusing a Navicert to any ship carrying the Fuel Remember the UK would have to escort the tankers from the US across the Atlantic.

 

[lukedalton]

The UK’s policy in Europe was to create an oil desert so that supply’s of oil to german allies and friendly neutrals was restricted. The did this by restricting the oil stocks in adjacent Neutrals so that no surplus could be built up and sent to Germany. As soon as France fell Spain became an adjacent Neutral and had her oil stocks restricted by the British government.in spite of any fears that Franco would declare war,

To allow any oil to be imported the Spanish Goverment had to inform the UK of their oil stocks and let the British Government determine how much they should have . Italy had been in this position since 1939. if Italy starts to invrease its oil refining capacity and starts importing oil in Escorted convoys from Russia the UK will simply count the tankers and reduce the oil supplies coming into Italy from the US. By refusing a Navicert to any ship carrying the Fuel Remember the UK would have to escort the tankers from the US across the Atlantic.

All that doesn't take in consideration the fact that the UK, in Spain, was actively trying to keep her neutral paying bribes right and left and reasonably know that Franco had no desire to enter the war due to the just finished civil war..all that mean that had a more free hand (and better remember that Franco still give a lot of barely covert support to the Axis and was one of the biggest supplier of tungsten for Germany); Italy instead is another matter, she is a Great Power and at the moment is the second navy in the meditterean and a reasonably feared army capable of menacing Egypt...while at the moment London is under the Blitz and the army is still suffering from Dunkirk, translated: yeah, Rome neutrality is much more precious than some oil (and other material) passing through the blockade and everybody knows it, expecially in the lowest moment of the UK.

 

[hipper]

All that doesn't take in consideration the fact that the UK, in Spain, was actively trying to keep her neutral paying bribes right and left and reasonably know that Franco had no desire to enter the war due to the just finished civil war..all that mean that had a more free hand (and better remember that Franco still give a lot of barely covert support to the Axis and was one of the biggest supplier of tungsten for Germany); Italy instead is another matter, she is a Great Power and at the moment is the second navy in the meditterean and a reasonably feared army capable of menacing Egypt...while at the moment London is under the Blitz and the army is still suffering from Dunkirk, translated: yeah, Rome neutrality is much more precious than some oil (and other material) passing through the blockade and everybody knows it, expecially in the lowest moment of the UK.

we've derailed this thread enough so this is my last mail on the topic. the official history of the MEW is online please take a look at it. The Economic Blockade, W.N. Medlicott 1952

I don't think we will ever agree

If the Italian navy wanted to run its own merchant ships from the Black sea to Italy outside the navy certificate system, there ships would have to be convoyed is some force to prevent the UK seizing them. which would decrease the value of oil if a substantial portion had to be used by warships escorting the tankers

It would also be child's play to control the issuing of Navicerts to Italian oil tankers in the Atlantic so that the total amount of oil going to Italy did not increase.
As a condition of these ships sailing the Italians had to discuss their oil stocks and a maximum level of imports was set.

I'll note that the US was much more important to the UK than Italy yet its shipping had to comply with the navicert system to its commercial disadvantage.

Finally Germany had a very large Debt to Italy pre war, what to the Italians gain by adding to it?

Regards

Hipper

 

[Gemellus]

March 27, 1941 – Belgrade, Yugoslavia – Diplomatic Cable – US Embassy to Washington

….It is apparent that the coup had clear support from the English. Milian (Nedic) has been replaced as head of the military and it appears that the plotters intend to break with the treaty signed just two days ago brining Yugoslavia into the Axis. Reactions from the local German embassy are, as to be expected, loud and insistent on the reinstatement of Nedic and Prince Paul.

Interestingly the Italians have remained silent. They were not present at the signing of the Tripartite Pact last week and they have made no public statement. It appears that Balbo and his pet Ciano are keeping their cards very close the chest here. I did hear from a source in the British compound that Italian troops had be mobilized near Venice and that reinforcements had arrived in Albania shortly before the signing of the Pact.


April 5, 1941 – London Times

…The Signing today of a Treaty of Non-Aggression between the new Yugoslavian government of Prince Peter and Molotov, is a positive sign that the unnatural alliance between Fascist Germany and the USSR is breaking down. Clearly the new government in Belgrade, despite its’ public protest, will not be as accepting or accommodating to the Fascist as General Nedic and Cvetkovic. His majesty’s ambassador to Yugoslavia Sir Ronald Campbell issued the following statement that we quote in part: “The position of His Majesty’s government has not changed with the changing of the administration of Yugoslavia. We feel that while we would welcome the full support of Prince Paul in our fight against the Huns it is more than sufficient for states such as Yugoslavia to remain neutral in principal until such a time as political and moral expediency demands a change. With her difficult position surrounded by hostile states we do not entreat Prince Paul to declare active support for our cause, it is enough that he seeks to do us no harm and to desist from overtly aiding our enemies.”


April 6, 1941 – Radio Broadcast (from Italy) to the Barovina of Croatia

…Today our homeland suffers under the oppression of the Serbs and their lackeys. Only the Ustasa and only our Catholic Brothers in Italy can be trusted to preserve both the Holy Mother Church in the Barovina and the leadership of the Croat people in this dark hour. For too long have the Serbians and the Orthodox oppressed us. Now is our hour to strike, now is the time for freedom and order!

April 12, 1941 – Belgrade, Yugoslavia – Office of Ivan Milicevic (Mayor) 6 PM

Carefully the mayor pressed down his tie and drew his vest down, then he stepped out into the street. The Germans were casually deployed near the flagpole. About a dozen unarmed Yugoslavian soldiers stood sullenly under guard. As the major approached a young German officer walked over. After giving a fascist salute he spoke:

“My name is Colonel Fritz Klingenberg. I hope you speak German?”*

Milicevic replied “I speak German commander. I take it by your presence that your army has arrived?”

Klingenberg smiled “As of noon today we control all bridges leading into the city. The artillery for my division has trained its guns on this position and the Luftwaffe strike force is to provide strike support for clearing your capital.”

Milicevic looked deflated. “My city. My God. Is it to be Rotterdam all over again?” he felt physically ill and staggered back a step.

Klingenberg offered an arm to steady him and spoke, “The destruction of this city is not a foregone conclusion. If you will agree to surrender immediately I can send men back to stop the attack. But we can broke no hesitation here. We are quite prepared to destroy the city if you resist.” Milecevic sighed and looked at the Yugoslavian prisoners. He didn’t want this. “Well, I can see you are ready to resist, I will have to confirm the attack” He raised his arm to motion to one of his men.

“Wait” croaked Milicevic “wait. It’s done, it’s all done. I will surrender the city.”

Klingenberg smiled “A wise decision Herr Mayor. Now let us discuss the formalities in someplace other than this street?”**

May 18, 1941 – Quirinal Palace, Rome

The Duke of Spoleto*** looked over at Ciano. “What in God’s name am I supposed to do as King of the Croats.”

Ciano smiled back. “Your majesty. The necessity of our intervention in Yugoslavia means that many of those unfortunate people are left at the mercy of the Germans, the Hungarians or the Bulgers. Why else do you think so many of their units surrendered to us when we announced our intervention? Remember we did not declare war upon them, we came to their aid in their hour of need.” He smiled

The Duke, ‘King Tomislav’ laughed sourly and spoke “Invited? We snuck in after the Germans had won. Now you have me dress up….” The Prime Minister arched his eyebrow in correction “Oh very well my dear cousin insisted****but what am I to do Ciano? The Croats and Montenegrins don’t want me. Plus the whole business of Dalmatia sickens me. We can never take it….”

Ciano held up his hand. “Your majesty. Italy will not formally take a speck of ground in Yugoslavia. While our army and Navy is stationed there it is solely to provide security during this new state of affairs. The Croats and Montenegrins can well handle their affairs…at least their internal affairs. True we may well have some special rights in the new areas…” The Duke snorted, Ciano paused then continued “…well potentially more than some and certainly more special than others. But think of what was accomplished. Italy now has secured a place in Yugoslavia at the invitation of at least some of their own government.”




*Actually Klingenberg was just a captain at the time

**I included this because when I first read about the capture of Belgrade by Klingenberg with just 6 men and a drunken German Tourist I thought it was too good a story not to repeat. Klingenberg got the Knights Cross for this I think and so far as I know as the only person to capture a major capital during the war with just 1 squad of men. BTW there was no artillery or air support coming. The Das Reich Division occupied the city that night (April 12 in our TL) after breaking some of the garrison outside the city, but still expecting a block by block fight inside.

***Because his brother is still alive in this TL Aimone Torino remained just the Duke of Spoleto, not the Duke of Aosta

****King Victor Emanuele

 

[LordKalvan]

***Because his brother is still alive in this TL Aimone Torino remained just the Duke of Spoleto, not the Duke of Aosta

Since his elder brother Amedeo died only on 3 March 1942, Aimone was duke of Spoleto IOTL too when he was designated king of Croatia (and incidentally never ruled in Croatia: as you mention here too, he always refused to assume the titularity of the newly-minted kingdom because of the Italian annexation of Dalmatia). His full name was "Aimone Roberto Margherita Maria Giuseppe Torino" and I doubt he was ever reffered to as "Aimone Torino".
Both Aimone and Amedeo were outstanding characters, very upright and never afraid of risking death. As a matter of fact, this cadet line of the house of Savoy had much more potential than the main line.
It's a pity that ITTL the mistake of OTL is repeated again.

 

[Gemellus]

February 15, 1941 – Office of the Foreign Minister, Berlin

“My dear Ambassador, it is a pleasure to welcome you to Berlin.” Began Herbert von Dirksen

“It is my pleasure” Guriglia hesitated “mister ambassador” countered the Italian

“Please, I am no longer a serving ambassador, like you I am rather…between duties.” Answered Guriglia

“Hah, it appears we are both Hors de combat. Hence assignments such as this. Whatever this is…” counted von Dirksen

Guriglia cleared his throat. “It has become apparent that Italy has a labor problem and that you, or rather your nation has a surplus.” Dirksen did not reply he stared at the Italian. “Rather you have a surplus of labor that you don’t want. Specifically you have ‘citizens’ of the Reich who you seem ill disposed to make use of.”

Dirksen nodded. “You are suggesting that you might relieve us of some of this surplus?”

“The Prime Minister” began Guriglia “has come up with a proposal.:”

Dirksen laughed, “My dear sir.” Dropping his voice an octave. “the prime minister couldn’t decide to order a new vintage of Champagne without the approval of the beard.”

Guriglia looked down and a brief smile flirted across his face. “Ah well, perhaps the Prime Minister sought the guidance of others. In any event we are interested in settlers for the Fourth Shore. We actually would prefer co-religionist either Poles or Czechs, certainly not French. However to permit this we would be willing to accept additional ‘non-Christian’ settlers. In fact we think they would make ideal settlers for our colonies in East Africa.”

Dirksen stared at the Italian. “Some of our ‘lean and hungry types’ had already suggested Africa for resettlement. Of course they were pushing Madagascar as I recall.”

Guriglia “We had heard something of that. Of course if the Reich would like to transfer the island to our custody….”

The German laughed. “I think our dear friend Petain would have something to say about that. But to return to the topic. Plus I fear the English might well have something to say about it. I heard today they broke ties with the Romanians.”

The Italian nodded “I heard the British were also busy in Bulgaria.*”

Dirksen smiled “I hear that your government has been busy in the Balkans as well.” The Italian offered a sideway shake of the head. “In any event I can take this to the leadership. I think they might be receptive. We have too many Poles that is for certain. What types of numbers are we talking about…per month?”

Buriglia took out a folder. “I have some preliminary figures here. We would like to settle at least half a million on the Shore. We can take the same for East Africa. A one for one ratio would be good.”

The German shook his head. “I think not. A one for one is too generous. Perhaps three to one or four? In any event we move too far forward. I think it best to sound out the golden pheasants and see if they approve, then we can fix the numbers.”



March 4, 1941

Army Group North, 4th Panzer Group Training Area

General von Leeb looked down at the map on his conference table. “My dear General, I certainly appreciate that your appointment brings with it two more armor divisions.”

General Rommel smiled, “The Fuhrer was most generous. I think however it was more a tribute to your own skill. It is my hope that we can work well as a team together. “

Leeb stared at Rommel. “You have rather a reputation for independent action. I have read the reports about you in France. My campaign was rather less flamboyant than yours.” Rommel remained silent. “Still I can appreciate your of a new generation, at least when it comes to tactics. I grow uncomfortable when your tanks range so far out front.”

Rommel smiled, “Herr General there is a nautical expression. A ship is safe in port, but they are not made to remain in port.” He paused “I may have mangled that somewhat I am not much of a sailor.”

Leeb smiled. “Neither am I, neither am I.”



*The British did break diplomatic relations with Romania on February 15th and they were caught out trying to support a coup in Bulgaria at the end of February.

 

[LordKalvan]

Nice update.
Half a million Poles/Jews in Libya would certainly change the ethnic make up of Cirenaica where I suppose the bulk of the refugees would be settled.
I am a bit skeptical about the possibility of moving similar numbers to East Africa: the logistics would be daunting, since you could not just disembark them in Eritrea. Besides the obvious need to provide them with food, they would also need tools, clothes, everything. Maybe it might be organized over a two-years period, and even at this pace it would be hard (in particular since there is a similar number being relocated to Libya at the same time).
Obviously deporting them to Madagascar would have been much more difficult, but in that case the organizers of the relocation wouldn't have cared how many would have died: I would assume that Balbo would not want to be painted with the brush of a murderer.
The other problem is that one cannot just settle people randomly, without evaluating in advance if the skills necessary for survival would be available. Just imagine moving the bulk of the Warsaw ghetto (people without experience of life outside a city) to a remote virgin area somewhere in Ethiopia.

 

[Jim Smitty]

True moving people with little to no experience of rural life to some virgin area of Ethiopia is not going to end well. However, given the choices they are facing, Ethiopia is their best chance of living through this war. Honestly most will simply return after the Nazis are defeated with only a few staying. But I'm not sure what the Nazis are getting in this deal besides getting these people out of the new living spaces they want to create.

 

[duckie]

True moving people with little to no experience of rural life to some virgin area of Ethiopia is not going to end well. However, given the choices they are facing, Ethiopia is their best chance of living through this war. Honestly most will simply return after the Nazis are defeated with only a few staying. But I'm not sure what the Nazis are getting in this deal besides getting these people out of the new living spaces they want to create.

I'll take this is before the Wannsee conference. The Germans as yet have not fully committed to the holocaust. Having a wayout for the jews, and getting extra workers is a bonus for them. Also the "free" Railway capacity will be useful on the Eastern front.

 

[Livius wannabe]

I'll take this is before the Wannsee conference. The Germans as yet have not fully committed to the holocaust. Having a wayout for the jews, and getting extra workers is a bonus for them. Also the "free" Railway capacity will be useful on the Eastern front.

Won't transportation still be required, although in a different direction?

 

[Jim Smitty]

I'll take this is before the Wannsee conference. The Germans as yet have not fully committed to the holocaust. Having a wayout for the jews, and getting extra workers is a bonus for them. Also the "free" Railway capacity will be useful on the Eastern front.

Yeah this is before the Wannsee conference has that happened in early 42 and we are in early 41. So yeah they haven't fully when down the path of the holocaust yet, but that's honestly still only a matter of time. The Italians even through they are being fairly smart bastards right now aren't going to be willing to take Belorussians, Ukrainians, Russians, and other from the Soviet Union once the Nazis and others crash through the Soviet Union. So it might be delayed by the Wannsee Conference is still a question of when and not if.

Even if they come to agreement it will not free Railway capacity for the Nazis as it will still be needed to take these people to Italy who would then be taking them to Africa. The main thing for the Nazis through is this brings extra troops to the battle. They might be able to take Moscow if they start a bit earlier. Holding Moscow might be a different question but they could take it briefly. Or they could take Leningrad. There are a lot things those troops they had in North Africa OTL could be doing in the Soviet Union. The only thing I'm sure of though is the Soviets are going to be even more bloodied by the end of this war than OTL.

 

[rommel12]

the Germans would win the troops that they used in Africa and part of the Balkans.

 

[Jim Smitty]

the Germans would win the troops that they used in Africa and part of the Balkans.

I highly doubt it. They would do better against the Soviets, but not win. Unless you get into AANW lucky, I doubt it. They have their extra troops like AANW but not the Italian troops.

I see it being the Soviets get even more bloodied in this war but still win, but things are pushed to possibly a second Russian Civil War in the aftermath. Even more so if Stalin dies.

 

[duckie]

Won't transportation still be required, although in a different direction?

Yes, but the "western" jews could travel on the regual passenger trains (not in cattle cars), because they are going to emigrate as familys. Not batch lots to an Concentration Camp

 

[pjmidd]

the Germans would win the troops that they used in Africa and part of the Balkans.

Does not help with logistics and that's what stopped them in the main , outreaching the rail heads and just not able to get food/shells/fuel to the right places. If the Africa/Balkans don't happen then the minor allies might stay at home, Bulgaria stays neutral as well as no Italian support.

 

[rommel12]

What I am saying is that with these troops the Germans may be able to prevent the Russians from reaching Berlin and hold on until the allies reach the

 

[lukedalton]

Even if they come to agreement it will not free Railway capacity for the Nazis as it will still be needed to take these people to Italy who would then be taking them to Africa. The main thing for the Nazis through is this brings extra troops to the battle. They might be able to take Moscow if they start a bit earlier. Holding Moscow might be a different question but they could take it briefly. Or they could take Leningrad. There are a lot things those troops they had in North Africa OTL could be doing in the Soviet Union. The only thing I'm sure of though is the Soviets are going to be even more bloodied by the end of this war than OTL.

Much depend if Stalin decide to act as OTL and ignore all the clue towards a German attack, thing much more difficult without the North African and Balkan theatre active...but not impossible as Uncle Joe demonstrated OTL an enourmous capacity for ignoring reality.

Yeah this is before the Wannsee conference has that happened in early 42 and we are in early 41. So yeah they haven't fully when down the path of the holocaust yet, but that's honestly still only a matter of time. The Italians even through they are being fairly smart bastards right now aren't going to be willing to take Belorussians, Ukrainians, Russians, and other from the Soviet Union once the Nazis and others crash through the Soviet Union. So it might be delayed by the Wannsee Conference is still a question of when and not if.

No, even Polish and Czech are a strecht...but the jews were higly considered and there were the need of colonist; sure it will be a problematic mess, expecially for anyone sent in east Africa as they will lack many basic skill for develop the place and the italians are limited in what they can give as support (plus Abyssinia still need to be fully pacified)...still it's much much better than OTL and as said many will simple return (or hope to return) once this madness end.


Non related with the war in the east or Italy, but still very important are three question:

1) If the Tizard Mission ITTL happened and if it was like OTL or different: with the UK in a less dramatic situation the British goverment will probably feel a lot less forced to basically gift to the USA their most important technological asset or going through the Destroyer for Base agreement as OTL
2) How is the situation in the French colonial empire: with Tunisia in italian hand and Regia Marina out of the war, there will be much less pressure for launching Catapult...making the attempt to take Dakar diplomatically by De Gaule less problematic
3) What the Japanese are thinking: with the British non engaged in any meaningfull fight there is no need to weaken the forces in Asia, so the IJA/IJN work will be more problematic and OTL string of success was due to a lot of luck and event that ITTL will not happen