The Fourth Shore - Italy 1940 with Il Duce

[hipper]

No, they would say 'No Docking, move along, move along' till they reach the Italian ports

No, they would say 'No Docking, move along, move along' till they reach the Italian ports

Well they might, there might also be a riot as Egyptian Jews protest that their compatriots are in bondage. Or even just some nasty headlines in the American press.

For people without papers? From the wiki

On 13 July 1939 the authorities announced the suspension of all Jewish immigration into Palestine until March 1940. The reason given for this decision was the increase in illegal immigrants arriving.


In March 1940, the British High Commissioner for Palestine issued an edict dividing Palestine into three zones.


In Zone A, consisting of about 63 percent of the country including the stony hills, land transfers save to a Palestinian Arab were in general forbidden. In Zone B. consisting of about 32 percent of the country, transfers from a Palestinian Arab save to another Palestinian Arab were severely restricted at the discretion of the High Commissioner. In the remainder of Palestine, consisting of about five percent of the country-which, however, includes the most fertile areas - land sales remained unrestricted.[28]


In December 1942, when extermination of the Jews became public knowledge, there were 34,000 immigration certificates remaining. In February 1943, the British government announced that the remaining certificates could be used as soon as practicable to rescue Jewish children from southeastern Europe, particularly Bulgaria. This plan was partly successful but many people who received certificates were not able to emigrate (but those in Bulgaria survived).[29] In July it was announced that any Jewish refugee who reached a neutral country in transit would be given clearance for Palestine.[30] During 1943 about half the remaining certificates were distributed,[31] and by the end of the war there were 3,000 certificates left.[32]


At the end of World War II, the British Labour Party conference voted to rescind the White Paper and establish a Jewish state in Palestine, however the Labour Foreign Minister, Ernest Bevin persisted with the policy and it remained in effect until the British departed Palestine in May 1948.

Without the deathcamps, the British will not change the immigration blocks they had to legal immigrants, let alone illegal

Holding polish Civilians as indentured servants is a breach of British law, probably In Breach of Egyptian Law and arguably a breach of the third Geneva convention of 1927. It would be political poison to any who allowed it and certainly cause for legal action after the war.

As you point out above there were immigration certificates for Palestine available in the later half of 1940. there would be no immigration problems. The easiest think got the UK to do is to deny passage before any ship gets to Suez.

There was a substantial Egyptian Jewish population so I don’t think there would be any serious problem in accommodating any who got of the Italian ship.

 

[hipper]

What advantage is there to make it an indentured servitude only arrangement?

“Got the money to buy land? Great! Here’s your deed.

Not enough money? Here is a mortgage arrangement. Fail to pay and we ship you back.

Would you be interested in our sharecroping options?”

If they can’t come to an arrangement, move on to the next person in line.

In this case the passengers are passengers and could just get off the ship at Suez never to return.

 

[general]

What if the Italians claimed they were doing what Australia did after WW 2. The immigrants had to work where they were told for a period of time. These are not indentured, they just have to cover their cost of passage. Gives them at least a veneer.

 

[hipper]

Have you seen Voyage of the Damned? It recounts the story of the MS St. Louis, a ship carrying a few hundred Jews who were also comparatively well-off. The US Coast Guard followed it to make sure it didn't even get too close to their territorial waters and you worry about public opinion

It's the third time that i try to explain this to you...but ok, go for the forth. All that OTL plan that you continue to cite take in consideration two premise:

1- That Italy more or less was already determinated to enter the war
2- France was still on the war

After the fall of France and Benny being incapacitated (with the Italian goverment more willingly to stick to neutrality), all that plans had been basically vanished, shreeded and burned; the new objective will be keep Italy out of the war with reasonable bribe. At the moment the British strategic position it's not very good...to use some kind word, there is a reason that OTL they had not really done nothing about the Japanese occupy Indochina or the Soviet occupy the Baltic or bullying Romania (send her directly in German hands and allow the oil field of Ploesti to come directely in Nazi control), hell they have sold at the URSS rubber, perfectely knowing that Stalin will have resold to the Germans...and all that to not expand the conflict and give the Nazi some new ally at the worst of time.
After that, some concession of this kind towards Italy are just small fry, expecially if the new italian goverments act, had the effect to limit German and Soviet influence in the Balkans.

Regarding the USA, both goverment and pubblic opinion...well the first will be very very relieved that someone else take care of the problem (better remember that before and during the war, the american, canadian and many other goverments, were trying actively to obstacolate jewish immigration at the best of their capacity; many time flatly refusing to accept them) and the second will be very happy that someone at least help the jews leave nazi occupied territory, even if with an high price...because it's the only game in town at the moment. So no, international outrage will not be in schedule, probably the contrary as time were very very different.

Regarding entire family leaving the ships well it's more easily said than done, expecially if there are not local contact, if you don't know the local languace, if you have old and young with you that you need to care and don't have much resources; a trickle is always possible (and probably will happen) but anything more will mean that the italian authorities will keep security more tight during the passage trough Suez. If the Hagana bomb some ships, well the options are two and neither good.

1- the Italians stop the operation, after the war the Hagana win the prize for the biggest moron of the 20th century
2- The OVra is involved...and it's no good, really really no good.

I take your point about the British position after June 1940. In OTL it was very parlous. In this Timeline it’s much less so. Churchill may say that without their strongman the Italians will not declare war and discount them.

Small consessions to Italy may be possible but letting sending Polish Jews in bondage to Exile through a British controlled port would be controversial and would probably attract questions in Parliament when it comes out. As I mentioned it’s a breach of British law and arguably the Geneva convention.

NB I was not aware that the UK was selling rubber to the USSR in 1940

The US Goverment will not be Aware that there is a problem for the Jewish people of Poland. all anyone will see are people being expelled from their Homeland and sent to work in a Foreign land in Bondage. The British Empire had stopped doing this sort of thing to Indians 20 years ago and the zitalians are doing it to White Europeans.

The polish Comunity in the US will go apeshit and the polish American Vote was important enough that Roosevelt asked Hoover to investigate if Wendell Wilkie Had anglasized his name from a Polish Surname thinking that would make him unpopular with polish voters

Re leaving the Ship ther are 80000 Egyptian Jews and at least another 200000 in The Mandate, finding people who can speak Yiddish will not be a problem. There was extensive people smuggling going on into pallestine in this Era

Arguing that this is the best thing that could happen to the Polish Jewish population in 1940 is beside the point in 1940 it would be seen as ruthless exploitation.

Anyway I’ve made my point I wont argue about it any more

Regards Hipper

 

[hipper]

What if the Italians claimed they were doing what Australia did after WW 2. The immigrants had to work where they were told for a period of time. These are not indentured, they just have to cover their cost of passage. Gives them at least a veneer.

if they are passengers they can get off the ship at Suez.

 

[Livius wannabe]

Small consessions to Italy may be possible but letting sending Polish Jews in bondage to Exile through a British controlled port would be controversial and would probably attract questions in Parliament when it comes out. As I mentioned it’s a breach of British law and arguably the Geneva convention.

The polish Comunity in the US will go apeshit and the polish American Vote was important enough that Roosevelt asked Hoover to investigate if Wendell Wilkie Had anglasized his name from a Polish Surname thinking that would make him unpopular with polish voters

Again, you're conflating Poles and Polish Jews. Do you realise there wasn't much love for the latter? Not wanting them dead doesn't mean they were welcome everywhere, far from it.

Re leaving the Ship ther are 80000 Egyptian Jews and at least another 200000 in The Mandate, finding people who can speak Yiddish will not be a problem.

Like Ashkenazi Jews? I was under the impression most Arab Jews were Sephardi and spoke Judeo-Arabic.

Arguing that this is the best thing that could happen to the Polish Jewish population in 1940 is beside the point in 1940 it would be seen as ruthless exploitation.

I don't believe anybody has made that argument. Just that it could be preferable to other options. And volunteers would likely saturate the transport capacity, so no hard obligation.

 

[LordKalvan]

What advantage is there to make it an indentured servitude only arrangement?

“Got the money to buy land? Great! Here’s your deed.

Not enough money? Here is a mortgage arrangement. Fail to pay and we ship you back.

Would you be interested in our sharecroping options?”

If they can’t come to an arrangement, move on to the next person in line.

A voice of sanity in a discussion which had become utterly bizarre: I do congratulate you

The starting point here is that Balbo is not trying to deport a hostile population from Italian lands: he's going out on a limb to bring in involuntary refugees from the 3rd Reich.
He has his own interest in this not really from goodness of heart (although it is true that Balbo was always partial to Jews, and that racial laws were not something that the average Italian would be looking as a good thing). I reckon that there are at least two reasons for this move: the first is to position Italy differently in the world, in particular with regards to the USA (Balbo was a kind of folk hero in America after the Atlantic flights, they loved him and he returned the feeling), the second is to make more sure the Italian holding over its colonies by increasing the number of settlers. However the latter is just a side benefit: the prize money is if he can manage to create a beneficial image of Italy which would do wonders to create alternatives to a close relation with Germany (which he did not want at all).

It is obvious that making the refugees into indentured workers would mar the international image of Italy, and it would be at cross-purpose with the long-term goals: it would not be a good idea to bring in tens of thousands of refugees and mistreat them so badly that they would turn into future enemies (not to mention that the efficiency of indentured workers is certainly much lower than if the people work with a will).
OTOH humane treatment of these refugees would bring in not just good will but also potentially funding for the re-settlement (I'm thinking mostly of the Jewish associations in the USA and the Catholic church both in Italy and the USA): from the snippet portraying Pius XII and Montini, it looks like that the church was also thinking in these terms.
There is another way the church might be a tremendous help: interpreters, chosen from Polish seminaries. It would be madness to settle thousand of people in a place where no one understands their language, and the demand for interpreters would be huge.

The resettlement would still take its toll, and no one (much less the refugees) expects to be pampered: there is however a huge difference between having to work hard and being treated as serfs.
Incidentally, none of the Anglo democracies (Canada, Australia, USA, UK) accepted to take in Jewish refugees in large numbers (Australia had promised to take in 5,000 but then reneged): Italy would accept a large number (although not as large as the author posits: I believe that 150,000 the first year would be already requiring a huge logistic effort,maybe it might be pushed to a quarter million. However these refugees would not be immediately packed on , ships and sent to Africa: refugee camps would have to be settled in southern Italy, where a census of the refugees can be taken, rudiments of Italian language can be taught and some indoctrination will take place. The goal is to turn these refugees into willing Italian citizens, and good fascists: a new lease on life and the promise of a full Italian citizenship after 10 years in the colonies. Obviously specialized workers, professionals, scientists, interpreters will be offered better deals, and the same works for people who can commit to invest in the colonies).

In the late 1930s, Italian settlers were moved to Libya at a rate of 20,000 per year. Let's make the wild assumption that refugees can be transported there at a rate of 100,000 per year: it would take a huge effort to explore for additional water and dig wells, enlarge the Tobruk harbor, improve roads.
East Africa is much more difficult, since it is farther away, the infrastructures have to be built, there is still some guerrilla around. I would say 20-30 thousand a year would be tops, and I feel I'm over-optimistic. Certainly the first step would be to tackle the infrastructures: enroll the fittest refugees into engineers battalions. Their family would stay in Italy for the time being, and 5 years service would bring the citizenship. I'm sure there would be a lot of volunteers. The long-term benefit is that these engineers battalions would become the core of a future militia to take care of the security of the settlement villages (which would probably be organized kibbutz-style: communal ownership of the fields and so on).

 

[hipper]

.
Incidentally, none of the Anglo democracies (Canada, Australia, USA, UK) accepted to take in Jewish refugees in large numbers (Australia had promised to take in 5,000 but then reneged):

The UK took in 70,000 Jewish refugees in the pre war period and another 250,000 into the Palestine mandate. That’s a large number. it had to suppress a major revolt among the Arab population as a consiquence of this immigration. Im glad you agree that transporting large amounts of white slaves through the Suez Canal is not an option.

What percentage of your labour battalions do you think would Jump ship while passing through Egypt?

 

[Livius wannabe]

What percentage of your labour battalions do you think would Jump ship while passing through Egypt?

A trickle. I see the British colonial authorities actively preventing anyone from disembarking to avoid trouble with the locals.

If you think there would be moral or legal qualms, may I remind you
the canal was not closed to traffic even to warships during the invasion
of Ethiopia?

 

[LordKalvan]

The UK took in 70,000 Jewish refugees in the pre war period and another 250,000 into the Palestine mandate. That’s a large number. it had to suppress a major revolt among the Arab population as a consiquence of this immigration. Im glad you agree that transporting large amounts of white slaves through the Suez Canal is not an option.

What percentage of your labour battalions do you think would Jump ship while passing through Egypt?

Transporting white slaves (or indentured workers which is much of the same) was your idea.
I repeat again: taking in refugees (technically they would be apolids, since IIRC Germany stripped away their citizenship before letting them go) and turn them into indentured servants would have been not only immoral and illegal, but also utterly stupid.
I would also ask you kindly not to turn around the definitions I use: there is a very significant difference between "labour battalions" and the kind of engineering corps I described (just to make an example, the latter would be on a volunteer basis, and with quite a valuable prize at the end of the enlistment term).
I don't think any who volunteered for the engineering corps would jump ship.
I don't have any idea how many would desert from forced enlistment in labour battalions. Maybe you may have some idea from your knowledge of British colonial past.

Before you bask too much in self-righteousness, I suggest you read also this:

Although British immigration policy was liberalised after Kristallnacht - the pogrom launched by Goebbels in November 1939, in which dozens of Jews were killed and more than 1,000 synagogues burned down - London challenges the idea that prewar Britain was a haven for those fleeing Nazi brutality. "The myth was born that Britain did all it could for the Jews between 1933 and 1945. This comfortable view has proved remarkably durable, and is still adduced to support claims that Britain has always admitted genuine refugees, and that the latest harsh measures against asylum seekers are merely designed to exclude bogus applicants. . .We remember the touching photographs and newsreel footage of unaccompanied Jewish children arriving on the Kindertransports [ by July 1939, 7,700 had arrived, compared with 1,850 admitted into Holland, 800 into France, 700 into Belgium, and 250 into Sweden]. There are no such photographs of the Jewish parents left behind in Nazi Europe. . .The Jews excluded from entry to the United Kingdom are not part of the British experience, because Britain never saw them. . .Memories of the unsuccessful public campaign to persuade the government to rescue Jews from mass murder faded quickly."

What's more, those that were granted entry were admitted only because the Jewish community guaranteed that it would bear all the expenses of accommodation and maintenance, with no burden placed on the public purse. Elsewhere, Canada accommodated only 5,000 European Jews between 1933 and 1945, Australia 10,000, South Africa some 6,000. And the US's unyielding quota system meant that, between 1933 and 1937, only 33,000 German Jews were admitted (and only 124,000 between 1938 and 1941).

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/jun/08/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices

 

[hipper]

Transporting white slaves (or indentured workers which is much of the same) was your idea.

No I'm pointing out in post 121

Holding polish Civilians as indentured servants is a breach of British law, probably In Breach of Egyptian Law and arguably a breach of the third Geneva convention of 1927. It would be political poison to any who allowed it and certainly cause for legal action after the war.

IMHO Transit of Polish Prisoners through the Suez canal would be problematic and in all probability the British would refuse passage to such ships.

I repeat again: taking in refugees (technically they would be apolids, since IIRC Germany stripped away their citizenship before letting them go) and turn them into indentured servants would have been not only immoral and illegal, but also utterly stupid.

I agree but you need to take this up with the original poster who posted the following

pril 12, 1941 – Asmara, Eretria – Italian East Africa

Governor Frusci ran a hand through his rapidly thinning hair. He looked down at the latest figures. More than a thousand Poles had arrived today. Most were supposed to have been Jews, but he was sure that like the first train there would be a good number of ‘mixed race’ immigrants. He laughed, in some mysterious way a good number of Polish farmers had made it onto the ships. He could imagine the bribes being paid to get out of the General Government and didn’t resent those who took this route. Still it was his responsibility. He looked over his welcoming speech, the original draft in Italian, not the Polish and Yiddish translations attached. He searched down for the critical paragraph, ah there it was

….the Italian setters here can well use your strong backs and stout hearts in turning this colony into a proper outpost of civilization. In the coming days you will all be assigned to a colonist to assist him in making this land flower. Four of your families will work with one settler. In time no doubt we will grant….here he scratched out the phrase ‘in good time shall earn your own freehold’. He smiled that was better. They had to understand that while they started out as serfs the future held a promise for them all.

I would also ask you kindly not to turn around the definitions I use: there is a very significant difference between "labour battalions" and the kind of engineering corps I described (just to make an example, the latter would be on a volunteer basis, and with quite a valuable prize at the end of the enlistment term).
I don't think any who volunteered for the engineering corps would jump ship.

Really! I just discovered that Haifa in the mandate was the inspection port for ships entering the Suez canal, you don't think any Polish Jews would decide that working with coreligionists was preferable to working for Italians?

I don't have any idea how many would desert from forced enlistment in labour battalions. Maybe you may have some idea from your knowledge of British colonial past.
Before you bask too much in self-righteousness, I suggest you read also this:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/jun/08/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices

you made a very specific claim which I pointed out was incorrect.

Incidentally, none of the Anglo democracies (Canada, Australia, USA, UK) accepted to take in Jewish refugees in large numbers (Australia had promised to take in 5,000 but then reneged):

acknowledging your error would be polite.

 

[LordKalvan]

<snip>

You should know by now that this discussion is becoming a bit tiring.
There will never be a way to agree, and so it's better to agree to disagree.

 

[docfl]

Maybe during the drilling of wells they hit oil?

 

[pjmidd]

Maybe during the drilling of wells they hit oil?

Unfortunately oil in Libya is deep, needs late 1950's tech to get at.

 

[marathag]

Maybe during the drilling of wells they hit oil?

Where there was Oil, they had to drill well past the depth where water was expected, not that those areas had aquifers in any case

 

[marathag]

Unfortunately oil in Libya is deep, needs late 1950's tech to get at.

USA Minors were drilling that deep by the start of the War, it's just mostly they didn't need to.

When Minors like Foster Petroleum felt that seismic data presented signs of a large, but deep deposit, they could go deep, around 6600 feet deep in 1930 near the Oklahoma City area.
That started an major Oil boom there, as that proved there was a huge field there.

If an Oil Major had really good seismic data and in the area of the right geology, I feel they could go 8-10,000 down before WWII.

Now Italy didn't have the resources or knowhow of the US(or UK or Dutch) Oil Majors at this time, or even the US Minors, FTM. They would need outside (read US) help

OTL this was Esso. Now before the War, their water drilling attempts sometimes resulted in Natural Gas hits. In the US, news of that would have brought in a number of Wildcatters surveyors and geologists to explore more.

 

[LordKalvan]

USA Minors were drilling that deep by the start of the War, it's just mostly they didn't need to.

When Minors like Foster Petroleum felt that seismic data presented signs of a large, but deep deposit, they could go deep, around 6600 feet deep in 1930 near the Oklahoma City area.
That started an major Oil boom there, as that proved there was a huge field there.

If an Oil Major had really good seismic data and in the area of the right geology, I feel they could go 8-10,000 down before WWII.

Now Italy didn't have the resources or knowhow of the US(or UK or Dutch) Oil Majors at this time, or even the US Minors, FTM. They would need outside (read US) help

OTL this was Esso. Now before the War, their water drilling attempts sometimes resulted in Natural Gas hits. In the US, news of that would have brought in a number of Wildcatters surveyors and geologists to explore more.

Prof. Ardito Desio, an Italian geologist, carried out extensive explorations in Libya, starting after the colony was pacified. Between 1936 and 1940 he was in charge of the Libyan Geological Survey, and identified both the large underground aquifers in Cirenaica and areas where the water contained traces of oil and natural gas, which promised deeper reservoirs of oil and gas. Unsurprisingly, the greater impulse and governmental backing to this explorations happened during the tenure of Balbo as governor of Libya. The explorations were stopped by the entry of Italy in WW2, and were restarted only in 1947 (but at this time Italian companies were excluded from prospecting).
It is true that Italy would need technology to exploit the deep oil fields, but this technology was available in the USA (IIRC, the oil fields around Oklahoma City were similar to the Libyan ones).

With Italy neutral, and better relations with the USA, it would be quite possible to set up a joint venture between the Italian State Organization for oil and gas (ENI) and an American major (Esso or Standard Oil may be the best candidates). It will take some years to have this fields in production (I would not expect production to start before 1945), but it would be another reason to strengthen the ties between Italy and USA.

 

[Gemellus]

August 5, 1941 – Novgorod, USSR (200 km South of Leningrad)

The ‘Golden’ city of Novgorod lay stretched out in the late afternoon sun. The Luftwaffe had just unleashed a heavy bombardment of the Russian forward positions. Now three regiments of the 21st division moved forwarded. Stunned by the attack to Soviet 21st Armored Division was slow to respond. The battle raged most of the night but by the dawn of the 16th the city was firmly in German hands.

The 15th Panzer Division passed through the city while the 21st pinched out the last pockets of resistance. Major General Prittwitz could spare little time for the city. In fact his orders from Rommel were specific. The Soviets were to be given no time to reorganize. If the city hadn’t fallen to the 21st Prittwitz was ordered to bypass it and swing North. But with the city in hand he could stay on the good roads and save his precious panzers. Still as he troops moved through he stopped at the 21st headquarters. Coming out to meet him was a major. Prittwitz offered a smart salute. The major returned it and spoke

“Major von der Chevallerie, at your service herr general. I am happy to support the roads through and out of the city are cleared for your tanks.”

Prittwitz smiled and replied “Excellent, Major. The 21st did a spectacular job here. If we had to bypass this position it would have cost me 2 or 3 days and stretched my supplies even further.”

Now it was the majors turn to smile. “I think I may be able to help you a little with your supplies. Ivan was very carless. We captured a good deal of intelligence about this position*. I have most of the fuel depots used to supply our Russian comrades under guard. I can order them to top off your tanks if you like?”

Now Prittwitz smile broke into an absolute grin. With the gas and no need to bring up fuel immediately he could extend this drive. He looked North and started to do the math.

August 5, 1941 – Johvi, Estonia, near the Russian Boarder

General Kirchheim down at the town. He drew a deep breath and scanned it with a pair of field glasses. He turned to his intelligence officer. “It looks like we won’t have to fight for this one.” As any good aid learns the major replied “Yes sir.” He waited a second then continued “If we keep this pace then we can get to Narva before the Russians even know we are advancing.”

Kirchheim didn’t nod or answer. He just stared at the town. “I wish I had a full Panzer division here. I could split up the coast and beat Prittwitz to Leningrad. **Still we press on. His eminence is likely looking over our shoulders as we speak.” The Generals aid involuntarily looked up for Rommel’s plane which had been a common site over them all summer. The sea is only a dozen km and we should be able to get some supplies in. Plus the lake will cover our flank*** .” He paused for a second considering the odds. “We keep going. I want the 22nd**** to push on. Don’t let Oppenin give the Russians any time to reorganized.”

August 14, 1941 – Leningrad, USSR

General Voroshilov looked out his window at the long lines queuing for trains. He snorted. A part of him wished he could be in those lines.***** He went over and picked up the latest orders from STAVKA. It was yet another command to fight to the last and not let the Germans into the city. Again he snorted. He had no real armor left after the failed counter attacks. The Germans had the initiative and all he could do was draw back into the city. Even then not a few of his units were breaking apart. Desertion was rising. Even the with plenty of final rations from the Soviet State****** the could smell the panic. Technically he supposed he should call Commander Tributs.+ The fleet was getting a good pounding as the Germans advanced. The Marat was already sunk. Maybe he could get his hands on some of Tributs sailors. They might stiffen the line. But he wasn’t hopeful.





*In our Tl the 21st not only captured the plans for the city defense but later a Karelian Finn who had been drafted into the Soviet Army turned over detailed maps of the positions and supply areas around the city. It actually fell 10 days later than in this Tl as well

**In our TL Narva was actually captured by German troops and Estonian irregulars on August 17th.

***Lake Peipsi in South of the City and provides a deep natural protection.

****22nd Panzer Regiment, in our TL fighting in Africa

*****In our Tl about 1.7 million of the 3.3 million fled the city

******Soviet slang for the 9 grams of lead in the bullets used to shoot deserters

+Vladmir Tributs, in our TL not an admiral till 43, he commanded the Soviet Baltic Fleet from 39 onward.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Soviet positions in the north aren't looking good. Even worse than OTL, its possible that Leningrad will fall this time around. With that it will give the Germans effective control of the Baltic. However the fall of Leningrad wouldn't be enough to defeat the Soviets. Personally from what I'm seeing it will be a far weaken Soviet Union going into the Cold War.

 

[Lazer_Pages]

Leningrad falling isn't going to cause a soviet collapse, but it is going to hurt Soviet moral and free up quite a few German troops who were stuck sieging the thing OTL.