If italy is neutral then does Catapult happen? The RN can still trap the KM in the North Sea and there is a minimal threat of a plausible combined fleet. The UK is probably not shitting itself as the naval war is still a single theatre.
The Fourth Shore - Italy 1940 with Il Duce
- Thread starter Gemellus
- Start date
I'm a bit disappointed that I wasn't able to find anything about the WWII diplomatic maneuvers in my copy of Bosworth's "Mussolini's Italy", but then again it concentrates largely on the domestic aspect prior to the war.
I honestly cannot see Italy as a non-belligerent being able to occupy either Corsica any other part of France proper, for a multitude of reasons. Any occupation by the Italians of any lands considered part of France proper would strictly align them with Germany in the eyes of those sympathetic to France, nor are the Germans going to be willing to apply that measure of stress upon the Vichy Regime so that they may placate a non-ally. An occupation of Tunisia and French Somaliland, while inevitably decried in both cases, will also be easier to play off to the international community; Tunisia already has a substantial Italian presence, and French Somaliland because of the strategic importance of the Dijoubti-Addis Ababa railway and its economical influence. It still won't go over well overall, but it wouldn't be as damaging to Italy's foreign relations as the occupation of Indochina was for Japan.
I honestly cannot see Italy as a non-belligerent being able to occupy either Corsica any other part of France proper, for a multitude of reasons. Any occupation by the Italians of any lands considered part of France proper would strictly align them with Germany in the eyes of those sympathetic to France, nor are the Germans going to be willing to apply that measure of stress upon the Vichy Regime so that they may placate a non-ally. An occupation of Tunisia and French Somaliland, while inevitably decried in both cases, will also be easier to play off to the international community; Tunisia already has a substantial Italian presence, and French Somaliland because of the strategic importance of the Dijoubti-Addis Ababa railway and its economical influence. It still won't go over well overall, but it wouldn't be as damaging to Italy's foreign relations as the occupation of Indochina was for Japan.
What if, the fascists install a puppet Corsica regime that declares "independence" and alliance to Italy?
If no one in Italy aims for a Nobel prize in stupidity, over the next 15-20 years Fascism will be undone by the economic boom (there is the Libyan oil just behind the corner, plus the avoidance of distruction of industrial factories on the mainland, most likely an influence zone in the Mediterranean). Note that I have written that the immediate prospective leaders are nothing to write home about (the jury is still out about Balbo), but behind the first ossified layer of Fascist and monarchical leadership there are very bright guys who will soon come to the fore. Who knows, maybe Umberto will perform better in a more favorable environment
It would still be observed as a defacto annexation on the part of Italy by most of the world.
What if they held a plebiscite with League of Nations observers?
Good timeline
Does Japan still advance in French Indochina?
The US and wally responce would be interesting.
That is the economic sanctions on Japan after imperial Japan out the squeeze on France but no economic sanctions on Italy after it takes over Tunisia and Corsica.
If Japan still starts a fight with the USA and Britain, they are screwed sooner.
Germany might be screwed sooner as well.
Soviets feel more German strength in '41 but will not be overwhelmed.
Italy might take Yugo in 41 but leaves Greece alone.
Italy could build up forces and join the fight against Germany in '44.
Would be interesting to see if Italy build up industrially in 41 and 42 and 43 to join allies in 44. Wonder if they can bring Spain in with them. Or if they make ally with GB and being in Spain and Turkey in the last half of 44.
Also, maybe instead of Torch and Italy, the USA goes North to Norway in 42. Limeted move in Norway while they build up in Britain.
Thought provoking timeline, lets see where it goes.
Does Japan still advance in French Indochina?
The US and wally responce would be interesting.
That is the economic sanctions on Japan after imperial Japan out the squeeze on France but no economic sanctions on Italy after it takes over Tunisia and Corsica.
If Japan still starts a fight with the USA and Britain, they are screwed sooner.
Germany might be screwed sooner as well.
Soviets feel more German strength in '41 but will not be overwhelmed.
Italy might take Yugo in 41 but leaves Greece alone.
Italy could build up forces and join the fight against Germany in '44.
Would be interesting to see if Italy build up industrially in 41 and 42 and 43 to join allies in 44. Wonder if they can bring Spain in with them. Or if they make ally with GB and being in Spain and Turkey in the last half of 44.
Also, maybe instead of Torch and Italy, the USA goes North to Norway in 42. Limeted move in Norway while they build up in Britain.
Thought provoking timeline, lets see where it goes.
The LON is dead and buried by this time, its limited influence completely and totally annihilated over the last four years of global conflict(s). That and presumably this plebiscite would be done under the "observation" of the Italians which is what would be required in order to ensure said plebiscite would pass in the first place. There isn't any way Italy can positively spin this.
Let's be clear: there is no chance that a referendum chooses union with Italy, not if it is a fair one. There is a vocal minority of irredentists, financed obviously by Italy, but the majority of the population wouldn't care to go that way (unless there was the risk of a German occupation, but this is virtually impossible without an alliance with Italy).
I don't see either why the (unstable) committee that governs Italy would care to take such a risk. Corsica isn't worth a damn, and even among the irredentist claims was probably the least serious.
Tunisia and Djibouti would be worthwhile pieces of real estate, however, and I would believe that France could be intimidated enough to accept the Italian requests.
Maybe they only put three options
1)establishment of Republic of Corsica
2)union with Italy
3)establishment league of nations mandate
On all three Italy reigns supreme as option one is a puppet republic option two is incorporation into Italy three they will claim to be acting on the behalf of the League of Nations and award themselves a mandate
I know I'm derailing this thread but what if Italy suggests uses Corsica as a way to defame the legitimacy of the Vichy regime, thus arguing that a referendum should be pursued for the purposes of self-determination?
Zagan
Donor
Weren't about 80% of the people in Corsica ethnic Italians at that time? I presume that most of them would have welcomed the end of the inhumane policy of denationalization perpetrated by France during their centuries long occupation. I mean, today less than 30% are still speaking Italian.
They are loosely "Italian", in fact Sardinia and Corsica have a strong indipendentist sentiment.