I wonder what would happen in Leningrad failed in OTL. Joseph Stalin rehabilitated some of the officers imprisoned during the Great Purge (i.e. Rokossovsky) and allowed them to return to the Red Army in 1941 and after Operation Barbarossa. Soviet Army was strong enough to repeal December German attacks despite horrendous losses in both lifes and equiment. I can not see another purge after fall of Leningrad. On the contrary - all efforts would be centered on retaking historical city named after Vladimir Lenin in which the Revolution began. Due to Red Army attacks during late 1941 (probably unsuccessful) and 1942 German invasion into Caucasus would be delayed/weakened saving another hundreds of thousands lives from both sides. Attack in the northern part of the Front would surely convinced even Hitler to strenghten these forces. Combine this with ideological value of the Leningrad and you have Stalingrad on steroids.
About the Poles settling in Libya (including Polish Jews - at that time both Jews and Poles were Polish citizens so it is easier to call them as Poles - otherwise we should call difference between parts of Germany - Prussians, Bavarians and others, Belgians - Flemish and Wallonians, Soviets - combination of few dozens of nations) - my grandparents lived during the war - the oldest was born on 1934 and remember inhumane treatment of the Soviet Prisoners of War (she witnessed deaths from starvation when Germans were relocating them to the camps). If ATL there was possibility to leave occupied Poland, thousands of people would leave the country to the better place. Italo Balbo should be seen ATL as saviour - not a man who brought prisoners to the forced labour but gave them land and allowed to cultivate it. Remember that Germans began bloody persecution of Poles since September 1939 (hundreds people from Warsaw were executed in the forests), each action from resistance movement was met with reaction (ten kilometers from the town were I live there was village burnt to the ground and its inhabitants killed because German gendarme was assasinated), even without the Final Solution or death camps no one was safe. So I expect that ATL people would want to leave en masse - selling all their property and bribing Italians if possible. Some of them would want to fight against Germany by joining the Polish forces in the West (by the way, what happened to the Władysław Anders and its army in the east?) while others will want to continue peaceful life in the Libya (even desert is better than Germany during early 1940s). Some of them who wanted to return to Poland will be scared by the new communist regime so I would expect large Polish minority in modern day Libya.
You can always begin cooperation between Italian Kingdom and the Polish government in-exile. Fascist Italy won't like the Soviet Union influence over half of the continent to supporting anti-communist government could be useful in strenghtening bonds with the Polish minority and other anti-communists.
About the Poles settling in Libya (including Polish Jews - at that time both Jews and Poles were Polish citizens so it is easier to call them as Poles - otherwise we should call difference between parts of Germany - Prussians, Bavarians and others, Belgians - Flemish and Wallonians, Soviets - combination of few dozens of nations) - my grandparents lived during the war - the oldest was born on 1934 and remember inhumane treatment of the Soviet Prisoners of War (she witnessed deaths from starvation when Germans were relocating them to the camps). If ATL there was possibility to leave occupied Poland, thousands of people would leave the country to the better place. Italo Balbo should be seen ATL as saviour - not a man who brought prisoners to the forced labour but gave them land and allowed to cultivate it. Remember that Germans began bloody persecution of Poles since September 1939 (hundreds people from Warsaw were executed in the forests), each action from resistance movement was met with reaction (ten kilometers from the town were I live there was village burnt to the ground and its inhabitants killed because German gendarme was assasinated), even without the Final Solution or death camps no one was safe. So I expect that ATL people would want to leave en masse - selling all their property and bribing Italians if possible. Some of them would want to fight against Germany by joining the Polish forces in the West (by the way, what happened to the Władysław Anders and its army in the east?) while others will want to continue peaceful life in the Libya (even desert is better than Germany during early 1940s). Some of them who wanted to return to Poland will be scared by the new communist regime so I would expect large Polish minority in modern day Libya.
You can always begin cooperation between Italian Kingdom and the Polish government in-exile. Fascist Italy won't like the Soviet Union influence over half of the continent to supporting anti-communist government could be useful in strenghtening bonds with the Polish minority and other anti-communists.
