The Fourth Shore - Italy 1940 with Il Duce

May 24, 1940 – Villa Torlonia, Rome

Il Duce was out for his morning ride. His favorite mount had been ill this morning and he took the smaller Arabian out. ‘Roma’ was skittish today and several times Mussolini had to use his crop to rein in Roma. Suddenly from a bush immediately in front of the pair dashed a small hare. Roma reared up in shock too quickly for Mussolini to react. The fall was swift and ugly, and he lay there for almost two hours before he was found by the groom.

May 27, 1940 – Office of the Foreign Minister, Rome

The Frenchman stared over at Count Ciano casually and continued. “It is quite possible the some accommodation could be reached over Tunis and perhaps even other colonies, but Corsica is an integral part of France and...” *

Ciano interrupted, “You and your allies (looking over at Loraine) have already stopped coal shipments from German. You realize this is pushing into German hands?”

Sir Percy Lorraine looked drolly at the Foreign minister and replied “It was most regrettable that His Majesty’s navy had to impound those ships and cargo. However you understand we are at war with Germany?”

Ciano shook his head in disgust. He couldn’t stand the Englishman but for the sake of Italy he calmed himself. “Italy requires coal and oil to survive. The summer ends Mr. Ambassador and Italy needs coal!”**

Ambassador Poncet spoke in a soft tone, “Ah to speak of survival how is your father-in-law. We are all praying for his speedy recovery.”

Ciano smiled sweetly. “Il Duce is recovering and I expect him to resume his duties within the week.”

“Excellent, excellent” offered Lorraine

Ciano stood. “In fact gentlemen if you will excuse me I will convey our discussions to him at once. I am sure he will be most interest in your offers and positions.”


June 1, 1940 - Meeting of The Grand Counsel, Palazzo Venezi, Rome

Marshal De Bono sat rigid in his seat. He looked across the table at De Vecchi who smiled politely back. Dismissing the lawyer he turned to Balbo who was speaking to Ciano in a low whisper. Clearing his throat Bono spoke, “Perhaps a first-hand account of Il Duce’s health should be made? I understand my dear Count that you have just left Torlonia?”

Ciano turned to address the rump meeting. “I have been with my father-in-law and his doctors this afternoon. They have little to report. Il Duce has a high fever and continues to go in and out of consciousness. They feel he will survive and make a full recovery, but it may well be some time before he is well enough to resume his full duties.”

“Which means it is up to us to make some decisions.” Stated Balbo “The Germans appear to have trapped the British at Flanders and destroyed most of the French army in the North. I very much doubt this war will last much longer.”

“So there is no need for us to intervene.” Offered Bono

“No, I think not” replied Balbo “and if he was well I am sure Il Duce would see we can gain more by subtly than force of arms.” He turned to Ciano. “I asked our foreign minister her tonight to repeat the French offer of concession in Tunis and Algeria.”

“Algeria may be too far to press the French” offered De Vecchi “But occupation of Tunis would add nicely to the Fourth Shore***. I also think we may later press them for Corsica.”

Bono nodded “Yes Tunis would be a welcome addition, and Corsica is ours by right and blood. But there seems no need to fight for it now. Better to let the French fall away from the British then press our claims there.”

“The French” offered Ciano “seemed adamant about keeping Corsica”

Bono laughed “We will see how adamant they are when the Germans surround Paris!” All the men laughed.

Balbo spoke “I have already moved troops to the border with Tunis. As soon as our dear foreign minister presents our demands I think the French will welcome them in to keep order. Tunis is a fine harbor and the land is fertile. We can open it for settlement at once.+ In fact why doesn’t our Count go and contact the French at once?”

Bono knew a planned move when he saw it. This had been well rehearsed. For a moment he weighed the cost. An occupation of Tunisia accomplished by Ciano would shift power and it looked like Balbo was working with Ciano, who alone had direct knowledge of Il Duce’s health. This would bear watching.






*in our TL this meeting discussed the French overtures to allow Italian control over Tunis and possibly parts of Algeria (see Count Ciano’s diaries entry May 27, 1940).

**Starting in March of 1940 England gradually cut off coal supplies to Italy. Ciano wared British Charge de affair Sir Noel Charles that it would only solidify Italian German feelings of alliance – March 3, 1940

***The Fascist Italian name for the colony of Libya

+Balbo promoted the settlement of more than 20,000 Italians into Libya in the late 30s and 1940 in our TL
 
Pretty interesting beginning, seem that Mussolini (if he survive and will still remain healthy enough to govern) had received a blessing in disguise and if Italy will remain neutral (and probably join the allies at the end) the fascist regime survive.
Some note, if Benny is incapacitated the goverment will be more or less paralizated for sometime due to his habit of micromanagement, surrounding himselfs of yes-men and accumulate minister roles; the King will probably step in to bring some order (and expand his influences) while Benny recove and remember the army will always back him), Balbo will probably be an ally in this situation due to his good relationships with the royal family, plus he is someone with enough political clout and independence to use the situation to try to get some influence in the mainland politics again.

Regarding France and UK, whatever Ciano wrote in his diary, Tunisia and Corsica are out of the question at max Italy can get more or less the same deal obtained with the OTL Peace Treaty of 1940 plus the implementation of the 1935 Franco-Italian agreement and somo other little perks (cultural rights in Malta, favorable rate over Suez, stop any help at the Ethiopian rebels and at Hailè Selassiè); not considering the OTL British proposal to offer discounted price for the coal to Italy in exchange of neutrality and to buy a lot of italian weapons

So a nuetral Italy during WW2? That would complicate the war.

Well, it will change a lot of things.

The British will have the Mediterrean route open, shortening a lot the times in respect to OTL and no North African front; this mean that they will be a lot less desperate regarding their dealing with the americans or will have less fear towards the use of the French fleet possibly butterflying away Mars-el Kebir.
The Japanese are in troubles, ITTL the British doesn't need to transfer the best men and equipment from Asia making things for the IJA and IJN much more difficult.
The Germans in the short term are winner, no Africa, no Greece...maybe no Jugoslavia (but it's not a given due the political problems of the balkan nations, so Hitler can still decide to invade); plus a nation that will commerce with them.
Stalin without any open front will be more hard pressed to disbelieve all the news about an imminent German invasion...but never understimate Stalin stubborness and if Barbarossa is still succesfull as OTL with Germany having more resources even in case of victory the URSS will end in a worse shape of OTL and that can have a lot repecussion in the cold war and decolonization.
 
Pretty interesting beginning, seem that Mussolini (if he survive and will still remain healthy enough to govern) had received a blessing in disguise and if Italy will remain neutral (and probably join the allies at the end) the fascist regime survive.
Some note, if Benny is incapacitated the goverment will be more or less paralizated for sometime due to his habit of micromanagement, surrounding himselfs of yes-men and accumulate minister roles; the King will probably step in to bring some order (and expand his influences) while Benny recove and remember the army will always back him), Balbo will probably be an ally in this situation due to his good relationships with the royal family, plus he is someone with enough political clout and independence to use the situation to try to get some influence in the mainland politics again.

Regarding France and UK, whatever Ciano wrote in his diary, Tunisia and Corsica are out of the question at max Italy can get more or less the same deal obtained with the OTL Peace Treaty of 1940 plus the implementation of the 1935 Franco-Italian agreement and somo other little perks (cultural rights in Malta, favorable rate over Suez, stop any help at the Ethiopian rebels and at Hailè Selassiè); not considering the OTL British proposal to offer discounted price for the coal to Italy in exchange of neutrality and to buy a lot of italian weapons



Well, it will change a lot of things.

The British will have the Mediterrean route open, shortening a lot the times in respect to OTL and no North African front; this mean that they will be a lot less desperate regarding their dealing with the americans or will have less fear towards the use of the French fleet possibly butterflying away Mars-el Kebir.
The Japanese are in troubles, ITTL the British doesn't need to transfer the best men and equipment from Asia making things for the IJA and IJN much more difficult.
The Germans in the short term are winner, no Africa, no Greece...maybe no Jugoslavia (but it's not a given due the political problems of the balkan nations, so Hitler can still decide to invade); plus a nation that will commerce with them.
Stalin without any open front will be more hard pressed to disbelieve all the news about an imminent German invasion...but never understimate Stalin stubborness and if Barbarossa is still succesfull as OTL with Germany having more resources even in case of victory the URSS will end in a worse shape of OTL and that can have a lot repecussion in the cold war and decolonization.

Man, the butterflies are enormous. A more brutalized USSR, a less successful Japanese invasion of Southeast Asia...
 
Honestly my thoughts are the only way to create a fourth shore for Italy at this date is if they keep from crossing swords with the British and later the Americans. Its most likely they still get into a war through, Greece and Yugoslavia come to mind. It really depends on what the hell happens with Mussolini ITL. If he lives he most likely cross swords with the British over something stupid in Greece. If he dies, my hunch is Balbo comes to power as he is really the only one with the ability and power to rise. He was the only Italian IIRC that was pro-ally. So my hunch is if Balbo does come to power he focuses Italy efforts in the Balkans, more importantly in Yugoslavia. I think he is smart enough to understand Italy can't handle Greece and Yugoslavia at the same time and Italy has a lot more claims on Yugoslavia dirt than Greek clay. Plus Yugoslavia is a lot more unstable politically IMO. Play your cards right there you could get some of the groups there on the Italian side for helping them overthrow the Serbian Yoke and grab some territory in the meantime as you do this.

But sooner or later if Balbo does come to power he is going to enter the war, but on the side of the allies. So IMO that gives him three years to bring the Serbs to the table and gets what he wants from them. But he is going to see which way the wind is blowing and hopefully cleared out enough of the deadwood in the Italian military by then not to be screwed over when he does enter after the allies land in Europe again. However, the Soviets most likely are going to catch it much worse than OTL. Moscow might even fall this time in 41 before its retaken by the Soviets in early 42.

My question is what would Italy want in return for joining the allies? I could see further adjustments in the French North and Middle African colonies to favor the Italians, maybe something in East Africa as well. But what about Europe after the war? Unless the Vichy goes full Axis junior ally I don't see Nice or Savoy in play. Austria is full of Germans and I don't see Balbo doing anything there, maybe an Italian puppet in Austria through? Hell the Italians would most likely love that.
 

Yes more or less i agree; the only thing that i add is that even if Benny regain his full health and the rein of the goverment, the crucial moment will be gone...Italy dow in WWII was a very very opportunistic move as Benny (and everyone else) thought that the war was basically over; but if Churchill it's adamant on continue fighting Mussolini (or everyone else in charge) will remain neutral trying to extract the most from the situation at least till the italian armed forces are ready and by that time it will be clear that Germany will not be the winner.
Greece will be out of the question due to be a British client and Jugoslavia due to Adolf not agreeing in anything that can cause trouble to Barbarossa, but after said that Rome will try to extract concession from both and if Jugoslavia is invaded she will want her piece of the pie; in another part of the Balkans the italian neutrality mean that maybe Romania can find someone that will support her against the Soviets, even OTL the British tried to enstablish a 'Balkan League of neutrality' led by Italy, but many of the nation interested seem (very rightly) that this was a mean from Rome to gain too much influence in the zone, but Bucharest is a beggar that can't choose in this situation.
Not that Italy want really fight the URSS, but there were a lot of italian economic penetration during this period and first the SOviet demand and later Germany transforming Romania in a vassal basically undo everything, here the italians supporting the romanians can at least let them keep North Bukovina and obtaining more time for evacuate (plus a foreign support can make them feel safe enough to transport back in a more secure zone industrial material and other economic important asset, as sabotage the military installation left behind...while in OTL there were order to not provoke in any manner the soviets)

Btw, yes regain Austria as a puppet will be on the top of Italy objective in she will enter the war on the allied side
 
If the Japanese Can do it
Excerpt from Speech October, 1922 – Mussolini

…Italy is bordered by an inland sea which communicates with the oceans through the Suez Canal – an artificial means of communication which is easily blocked even by accident – and by the Straits of Gibraltar, dominated by the government of Great Britain. Italy has in fact no free access to the oceans. She is really a prisoner in the Mediterranean, and the more populous and powerful she becomes, the more she will suffer her imprisonment. The bars of this prison are Corsica, Tunisia Malta and Cyprus. Its sentinels are Gibraltar and Suez.

Tarquinia, Italy – June 13. 1940 – Training Area 185 Paratroop Infantry Regiment

Balbo entered the room gracefully and General Frattini rose to great him. “My dear General” began Balbo “it was so good of you to agree to see me.”

The General spoke, “Not at all Governor General. It was my honor to come here. In fact I was most interested to watch the regiment train this afternoon.” Balbo nodded and Frattini continued “These are good men. Perhaps not as good as mine in Milan…” he smiled “but good men.”

Balbo replied “Yes very good men. And so close to Rome.” The comment hung in the air for a moment and then Balbo continued. “I have recently been to Rome to see Il Duce.”

“How is our leader? My prayers and the nations all ask God for a speedy recovery”

Balbo stared at the General and answered “Yes, well it appears God is busy elsewhere. He is not well. I don’t not think…and neither do the doctors, that he will die. But recovery will be long and difficult. The Party and the nation will lack his sure hand for some time.”

“It is fortunate then, that we have men such as yourself.” Frattini paused for a moment, then continued in a slightly mocking tone, “And of course Marshal De Bono. I trust he is well?”

“Again as well as can be expect of a man so advanced in years. I fear the strain of the next few months will be too great for him. Still he had agility of mind enough to agree that we need make no direct moves against France or England at the moment.” Balbo stared at Frattini who remained stoically silent. “In fact we discussed a little operation that might well involve some of his men and yours. The French appear to be beaten in this war. England may well follow, but we see little profit in a direct confrontation. Do you think this regiment and perhaps some of the San Marco might be available for some work?”

Frattini saluted smartly. “I am ready to serve at the pleasure of the state.”

“Excellent” replied Balbo “Let me outline broadly what we have planned.”

July 6, 1940 – Port of Tunis, Tunisia (protectorate)

Admiral Jean Pierre Esteva regarded the Italian envoy coldly. Bombieri returned his stare and continued. “My dear Admiral, it is quite impossible for Italy to allow the British to completely isolate our forces. Their betrayal of you at Mers El Kebir is surely evidence that they can’t be trusted?” The Frenchman remained quiet and the envoy continued “As a consequence you can see why we feel we had to insure our own security by certain regrettable steps. The occupation of Tuniisia and Corsica are to protect the interest of both our countries.”

The Admiral interrupted “I cannot agree with you. Nor I fear will Marshal Petain.”

The Italian was silent for a moment then removed a silver cigarette case from his breast pocket. Slowly he lit the tobacco and took a long draw. “There are only two paths open to you. An open breach with Italy or acceptance of our protectorate over Tunisia.”

“I would fight.” Declared the Admiral. But suddenly it seemed as if all the air went out of his lungs. “Unfortunately my instructions for Vichy are to avoid a confrontation. They fear both the Germans and the British. It seems best to pursue a more neutral policy.”



Walter Winchell Radio Program, Sunday July 20, 1940

…in more news out of Europe the Italians seem to have completed their occupation of at least two French territories. Tunisia and Corsica are now under the control of the Fascist in Rome. President Roosevelt described the action as a ‘stab in the back’ and that is exactly what it was. Maybe that little accident that Benny the Moose had last month has shaken loose what few marbles he had left. With these moves I doubt that Italy has a friend left in the world or a foe who would trust their word!
 
While I have a rather good idea of where this TL is going I do want to reply and answer why I think the French would allow Italian occupation of one minor colony (Tunisia) and a department of France. In July of 40 France is at its lowest point. Not only have the suffered a near complete defeat and occupation but their former ally has attacked their fleet. It appeared to Vichy that France was very vulnerable. The obvious weakness of the Italian Army and to a lesser extent her fleet had also yet to be discovered. In fact both the UK and the French over estimated the relative power of the Italians. The Germans had a better picture. Of course the Italians themselves were aware of their own weakness. Let me recommend 'The Brutal Friendship: Mussolini, Hitler and the Fall of Italian Fascism" by Deakin. It paints a very good picture of early Italian war aims, capabilities and some of the personalities involved. Critically anyone trying to understand Italian fascism and foreign policy should read Count Caino's diaries (the are available translated on line), but read them with the understanding that he was a bit of a playboy and lightweight. The rest of the Fascist around Mussolini were made of sterner stuff.

Overall this Italian centered TL is framed by the logistical and economic weakness of Italy in 1940, a fact ignored by Mussolini.
 
Letting the Italian occupying Corsica and Tunisia isn't going to help Vichy, especially if they didn't fight for it . It will certainly help the Free French in the long run and maybe even right now . Dakar could flip for exemple
 
France in 1940 is at her lowest point. They can't do anything about the Italian Occupation of Corsica nor Tunisia, not after Mers El Kebir. This however is going to have ripple effects in the rest minor French Civil War that is going on at this point. Dakar might flip during the effort by de Gaulle tries to take it. That will give him a better power base, assuming he isn't killed ITL.

The British will not be happy by the Italian moves here, but its not much they can do at the moment. The Free French aren't in a position to do shit about this, further they know the French were trying to deal at least one of these territories before the collapse.

But it seems that Balbo is trying to make a powerplay, and I'm waiting to see what that is.
 
Well, Tunisia is not a minor colony (it's not even a proper colony but officially a protectorate), have a serious strategic importance in the meditterean and Bizerte is an important French naval base; allowing the occupation of Corsica without opposition greatly weaken Vichy legitimancy...and btw even at this stage the French can repel any serious italian attempt in Corsica without not even trying due to the italian lack of landing gear; and frankly the libyan force possibility to break the French fortificated Mareth line in Africa is not very good.

More importantly neither the German or the British will be very happy with this developement for political reason (principally, both side want to bring the French on their side and the italian moves don't really make things much easier) and while Italy can obtain a lot playing one against the other and being a middleman, the crucial point is not be too greedy as they can economically strangle Italy. Basically Adolf while being ok with Tunisia...as he doesn't care (but at least will allow an agreement like the one for the Japanese in Indochina), in case of the occupation of Corsica will alert the italian that he agree if they join the war effort on Germany side otherwise to keep their hand on their place and don't cause complication.

Finally, Italy will be in a political semi-paralisis without Benny, as the bald one had basically surrounded himself of nobodies and yes-men that totally depend from him for legitimancy and many without being sure that he will not come back will be too afraid for their career to take initiatives; Balbo itself was in practice in a golden exile as Mussolini consider him a too dangerous competent and need to find some political support to get in any position with serious power. In practice it's VEIII that hold the key of the Kingdom due to the law and the loyalty of the army.
With Mussolini out of picture (temporary or forever) Ciano, Balbo, Farinacci and Del Bono will 'fight' for power but it's more probable a collective leadership under the watchfull eyes of Badoglio that will act in the name of the King; in any case Ciano and Balbo excluded, the rest are really not some great example of capacity and intelligence and the remaining fascist big wig are even less notable.
 
With Mussolini out of picture (temporary or forever) Ciano, Balbo, Farinacci and Del Bono will 'fight' for power but it's more probable a collective leadership under the watchfull eyes of Badoglio that will act in the name of the King; in any case Ciano and Balbo excluded, the rest are really not some great example of capacity and intelligence and the remaining fascist big wig are even less notable.
From the words of Balbo as reported by the author, it looks like there will be no return of Benito in the seat of power: I wouldn't be surprised if he were going to be kept as a symbol, a bit like Mao in the end.Then one day his death will be announced.
The problem is that the most likely clique that will take power is made up of De Bono (as old as Methuselah), Farinacci (a thug, who couldn't sweet talk a bunch of marines to participate in a free orgy in a tavern without a squad of blackshirts to provide the muscle), Ciano (wha has the advantage of being the son-in-law of Benito and the disadvantage of being a lightweight aristocratic: not the best material to make a leader), and Balbo, who is most certainly the best of a bad lot but I don't think he's the clout to make himself into the strong man. The wild card might be Graziani, who is both ambitious and ruthless: if he smells blood in the water, he might make a try for the big pot.

The monarchy is not in much better shape, both because of the lack of human material (VEIII is getting long in the tooth, had his moment of glory in 1916-17 but after the war has been under the thumb of Mussolini; Umberto is a nice person, but not a man able to make quick decisions and inspire men; Badoglio did not perform very well when he was appointed to replace Mussolini in 1943: he always gave me the impression of being oily,not particularly bright and a kind of king log).

Overall there is no outstanding human material in evidence: maybe it would be for the best, less chances that someone makes a stupid move. I believe that the old golden rule (the only winning move is not to play) fits very well the uncertainties of the moment and the weaknesses of Italy.
 
I still think Italy remains nuetral.

Italy seems to have upset the British, the various French factions, and even the Americans view it as a stab in the back for the move on Corsica and Tunsia.

But Italy isn't in Germanies camp this time. If Italy stays strictly nuetral; there will be no peninsular campaign, which will prevent any allieviating of pressure on the Eastern front.

The question I have is the fate of Facism long term. Spain was fascist but was pretty much told to change its government type after the war. Especially when Holocaust footage came out.

In this timeline will Italy be pushed to do the same as Franco in OTL?
 
Top