Zagan
Donor
I meant that Corsican is an Italian dialect, not a French one. The Corsicans may not felt entirely Italian but they surely did not feel French.
The Fourth Shore - Italy 1940 with Il Duce
- Thread starter Gemellus
- Start date
Be that as it may, are they willing to get beaten a third time? They just got crushed by Germany, Kebired by the UK...I can't imagine that they have the confidence or will to try to go after Italy
Besides the fact that Italy left the LoN in 1937, the attitude of the fascist regime toward Corsica was always tactical: there was support for the irredentists in 1930, when relations with France were poor; in 1932 (with the Austrian crisis looming on the horizon) there was a rapprochement with France, and the League of Corsican Irredentists was dissolved; it was recreated in 1935, but on a very low key basis.
Even more telling, Corsica was not included in the Italian occupation zone in 1940 (the island was occupied only between November 1942 and September 1943) and Mussolini himself dictated the strategy for Corsica: support independentism, help the Corse to set up an independent state, leave the future developments to the general settlement after the end of the war (compare with the complete different policy in Dalmatia: the region was immediately annexed to the kingdom of Italy after occupation in 1941: it's obvious that there was political hay to be made with Dalmatia, but Corsica was barely on the radar).
I would expect something similar to happen ITTL too: low-key support to independentism, and - assuming that there is a credible support for it - promoting a referendum over independence one or two years down the track. Obviously there would be a friendly warning to the French government not to engage in a harsh repression of independentism.
Economic and Logistical Interlude
September 18, 1940 – Offices of Todt Organization, Berlin
Ambassador Alfieri sat calmly across for Director Todt. Todt looked at him with mild disgust. The suit the Italian wore had to be worth more than Todt’s own car. Still this meeting had been specifically set by Fuhrer himself and Todt could play the game as well as anyone. Todt smiled at the Ambassador and spoke, “My dear ambassador I appreciate your concern with the plight of the German worker. It is quiet true that most of our refineries designed for transatlantic trade are currently left with little to do. However it would seem that the end of Britain is only weeks away.”
Alfieri smiled back. “No doubt, no doubt Herr Todt. However despite the inevitability of your victory over England, it may not occur within this year, or perhaps even next? That means your refineries sit idle. Now as your allies we are well aware you have worked on agreements with Standard Oil to allow for the importation of oil into some of the occupied territories*. We think we can do quite a bit better than that. The oil coming from Grozny can still be exported.”
Todt replied “The English blockade would never let Soviet tankers dock in Germany…”
Alfieri interrupted, “No not Germany. But if the Reich was prepared to assist us in setting up refineries and to increase the capacity of those we have then England would be in no position to stop trade between two neutrals such as Russian and ourselves.” Todt despite himself betrayed a shocked look on his face. The Italian continued. “We could agree to supply both occupied and unoccupied France with refined product, eventually even the Dutch and the Belgians. That would remove a significant burden from your own government.” Todt nodded, his mind racing at the possibilities. “Of course some percentage of the trade might even make its way to the civil market in Germany. Slippage of that type is inevitable. But again the British won’t risk war over it. Our tankers, escorted by Soviet and Italian ships would be a powerful deterrent. I doubt the English would directly interfere. We have already spoken with the Soviets and they are quiet amenable to the idea. A good deal of their foreign trade is has been cut off by this war.”
“This would create a significant deficit in trade with the Reich.” Interjected the German.
“Well we have a solution for that as well” offered the Italian “As you know with the recent transfer of Marshal Badoglio to Corsica to take up the governorship, the Council has appointed some new officers to accelerate the modernization of the army. We feel that the spare industrial capacity of France and some of the other countries now in Germany’s ‘orbit’ could be put to good use equipping our own army.”
“Germany’s needs would of course supersede your own. We are at war.” Said Todt
“Of course, of course my dear man. We only want to make use of the surplus capacity. A good deal of French industry is idle now. We also are approaching the French about setting up or moving factories from France to Italy. Better that we control the production then the French eh?”
Todt was not as sure of that point. However he had more than a sneaking suspicion that the war might go on a while and access to oil was critical. He rose and walked around his desk. “I think we have the beginnings of an agreement here.”
November 10, 1940 – Meeting of the Grand Council, Palazzo Venezi, Rome
The formerly round table had been removed from the room and now a short oblong one stood in its’ place. Marshal Balbo sat at the head of the table flanked by the Council.
“I think it only proper that we give a welcome to the newest formal member of the Grand Council the new Inspector General of the Army General Berti, also the new head of our OVRA** the honorable Guido Leto and finally our dear Foreign minister who has earned his well-deserved promotion to Prime Minister of the Kingdom.”
After a smattering of applause, it was De Vecchi who spoke first. “I wonder if our new Prime minister might address the condition of our leader? So far as I know except for that brief show for Fat Herman no one has seen…”
Ciano interrupted, “I can assure you Cesare that my father-in-law continues to improve. He reads all of the council’s papers and those from my office. I think you should trust us that he can soon formally rejoin us at these meetings. If not by December, then certainly in the new year.” He smiled sweetly at De Vecchi. “We can’t risk a premature return of our leader so we have to carry on in his spirit.”
“Thank you my dear Count” stated Balbo “We have only a few points to discuss tonight then we may retire for a meal to celebrate the new lions of fascism. As you know the Germans have formally accepted our proposals to allow increase in oil refineries in Italy and to accept transshipments of the oil to Vichy and Flanders. They also have agreed to sell us surplus French equipment to rearm our own forces. General Berti is already accelerating the reorganization of our army. If you might address the more important issues general…”
Berti gathered up some papers and began to speak. “We have decided to return to civilian status some 600,000 conscripts*** and to pare the total number of divisions down by at least 30, which will become reserve divisions with only skeleton staff. The binary reorganization will be accelerated with the importation of guns and equipment from France. The new Inspector of the Armor will also incorporate captured French armor into our divisions pending the accelerated development of our own native tanks. The program will run in 4 six month phases. Phase one will see the standardization of artillery and increased deployment of mechanized support units into the first 30 frontline infantry divisions. The mobile divisions are slotted for increased transport and heavy arms, to be completed also within the first phase. Phase two will see to deployment of additional support units into existing divisions along with greater mobility. We hope to see the increased production of Italian artillery replace our reliance on purchased French and German stock. Additionally proto-type tanks for the armored division will enter testing with the goal of replacing the Char units that are now rearming our armor formations during phase 1. In phase three…”
General Bono held up his hand to speak, “This is all quite impressive General Berti, but so disruptive. You dismiss men just as we might need them, you cut divisions when….”
Berti glanced at Balbo who nodded curtly in the affirmative. “The current army is grossly inadequate for what we face in the near future. The Ethiopian and Spanish campaigns have gutted our formations and those in charge have failed to provide adequate leadership. It is almost criminal the shape the army is in. For now we need time and equipment more than simply manpower to deal with this crisis. Of course it is possible that some don’t see the need for such steps.”
Silence hung in the room. Bono answered slowly “You mistake my questions for a lack of enthusiasm my dear general.” He looked over at Balbo “Of course I agree with your ultimate goals I just was questioning some of your methods.” He smiled sweetly, “Do go on….”
Interlude and Explanation
(I include this section in part to explain and foreshadow what is coming in my next post). This is not AH put rather part of an account I found in Duce!, The Rise and Fall of Mussolini by Richard Collier. The books is actually a bit of a mess, difficult to read but is full of these interesting little stories)
Ristorante Italia, Ferrara – July 14, 1938
Marshal Balbo jammed his foot against the door of the restaurant and forced it open for his companion. Balbo noisily shouted that waiters should come and seat his companion and himself for a lunch. After some hesitation the staff scurried to obey. The manager looked at Balbo’s companion and nearly fainted. He walked up to the marshal. “Ah Marshal of course we are most grateful to have you here, but your companion….”
Balbo interrupted him “Do you mean the mayor. He is my friend. My close friend would you deny him a seat?”
The manager stammered “It is just that there have been some changes since you took up your post overseas, perhaps…”
Balbo stopped him “Listen to me you miserable little toad. I know well the law and who this man is. I chose to break bread with him and call him my friend. If you deny him a seat you deny me one and make me an enemy. Now is there a table or no?”
The pair was quickly shown the best table in the house.****
*In July of 1940 the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey agreed to supply Vichy and later even Nazi Germany with access to oil. In 1942 in our TL the head of a Standard Oil subsidiary (Standard UG Farben) name William Farish (from Texas) plead ‘no contest’ to a criminal conspiracy charge of dealing with the Nazis but Standard Oil got off with just $5,000 fine.
**Believe it or not the ‘Organization for the Surveillance and Stamping out of Anti-Fascism”
***Again an event that occurred in our TL in slightly different circumstances
****Renzo Ravanna the former mayor of Ferrara had only recently been replaced and put under a cloud thanks to the race laws of November 17, 1938. Balbo was having none of it. This lunch was the culmination of Balbo’s trip home from Libya. He had flown into Rome and paid a call on almost all the prominent Jews in Rome then invited the mayor to dine with him openly at lunch.
This was also one of the seeds of Balbo’s growing dissatisfaction with Il Duce. By the summer of 1940 the two men seemed to have settled into a degree of mutual distain.
Ambassador Alfieri sat calmly across for Director Todt. Todt looked at him with mild disgust. The suit the Italian wore had to be worth more than Todt’s own car. Still this meeting had been specifically set by Fuhrer himself and Todt could play the game as well as anyone. Todt smiled at the Ambassador and spoke, “My dear ambassador I appreciate your concern with the plight of the German worker. It is quiet true that most of our refineries designed for transatlantic trade are currently left with little to do. However it would seem that the end of Britain is only weeks away.”
Alfieri smiled back. “No doubt, no doubt Herr Todt. However despite the inevitability of your victory over England, it may not occur within this year, or perhaps even next? That means your refineries sit idle. Now as your allies we are well aware you have worked on agreements with Standard Oil to allow for the importation of oil into some of the occupied territories*. We think we can do quite a bit better than that. The oil coming from Grozny can still be exported.”
Todt replied “The English blockade would never let Soviet tankers dock in Germany…”
Alfieri interrupted, “No not Germany. But if the Reich was prepared to assist us in setting up refineries and to increase the capacity of those we have then England would be in no position to stop trade between two neutrals such as Russian and ourselves.” Todt despite himself betrayed a shocked look on his face. The Italian continued. “We could agree to supply both occupied and unoccupied France with refined product, eventually even the Dutch and the Belgians. That would remove a significant burden from your own government.” Todt nodded, his mind racing at the possibilities. “Of course some percentage of the trade might even make its way to the civil market in Germany. Slippage of that type is inevitable. But again the British won’t risk war over it. Our tankers, escorted by Soviet and Italian ships would be a powerful deterrent. I doubt the English would directly interfere. We have already spoken with the Soviets and they are quiet amenable to the idea. A good deal of their foreign trade is has been cut off by this war.”
“This would create a significant deficit in trade with the Reich.” Interjected the German.
“Well we have a solution for that as well” offered the Italian “As you know with the recent transfer of Marshal Badoglio to Corsica to take up the governorship, the Council has appointed some new officers to accelerate the modernization of the army. We feel that the spare industrial capacity of France and some of the other countries now in Germany’s ‘orbit’ could be put to good use equipping our own army.”
“Germany’s needs would of course supersede your own. We are at war.” Said Todt
“Of course, of course my dear man. We only want to make use of the surplus capacity. A good deal of French industry is idle now. We also are approaching the French about setting up or moving factories from France to Italy. Better that we control the production then the French eh?”
Todt was not as sure of that point. However he had more than a sneaking suspicion that the war might go on a while and access to oil was critical. He rose and walked around his desk. “I think we have the beginnings of an agreement here.”
November 10, 1940 – Meeting of the Grand Council, Palazzo Venezi, Rome
The formerly round table had been removed from the room and now a short oblong one stood in its’ place. Marshal Balbo sat at the head of the table flanked by the Council.
“I think it only proper that we give a welcome to the newest formal member of the Grand Council the new Inspector General of the Army General Berti, also the new head of our OVRA** the honorable Guido Leto and finally our dear Foreign minister who has earned his well-deserved promotion to Prime Minister of the Kingdom.”
After a smattering of applause, it was De Vecchi who spoke first. “I wonder if our new Prime minister might address the condition of our leader? So far as I know except for that brief show for Fat Herman no one has seen…”
Ciano interrupted, “I can assure you Cesare that my father-in-law continues to improve. He reads all of the council’s papers and those from my office. I think you should trust us that he can soon formally rejoin us at these meetings. If not by December, then certainly in the new year.” He smiled sweetly at De Vecchi. “We can’t risk a premature return of our leader so we have to carry on in his spirit.”
“Thank you my dear Count” stated Balbo “We have only a few points to discuss tonight then we may retire for a meal to celebrate the new lions of fascism. As you know the Germans have formally accepted our proposals to allow increase in oil refineries in Italy and to accept transshipments of the oil to Vichy and Flanders. They also have agreed to sell us surplus French equipment to rearm our own forces. General Berti is already accelerating the reorganization of our army. If you might address the more important issues general…”
Berti gathered up some papers and began to speak. “We have decided to return to civilian status some 600,000 conscripts*** and to pare the total number of divisions down by at least 30, which will become reserve divisions with only skeleton staff. The binary reorganization will be accelerated with the importation of guns and equipment from France. The new Inspector of the Armor will also incorporate captured French armor into our divisions pending the accelerated development of our own native tanks. The program will run in 4 six month phases. Phase one will see the standardization of artillery and increased deployment of mechanized support units into the first 30 frontline infantry divisions. The mobile divisions are slotted for increased transport and heavy arms, to be completed also within the first phase. Phase two will see to deployment of additional support units into existing divisions along with greater mobility. We hope to see the increased production of Italian artillery replace our reliance on purchased French and German stock. Additionally proto-type tanks for the armored division will enter testing with the goal of replacing the Char units that are now rearming our armor formations during phase 1. In phase three…”
General Bono held up his hand to speak, “This is all quite impressive General Berti, but so disruptive. You dismiss men just as we might need them, you cut divisions when….”
Berti glanced at Balbo who nodded curtly in the affirmative. “The current army is grossly inadequate for what we face in the near future. The Ethiopian and Spanish campaigns have gutted our formations and those in charge have failed to provide adequate leadership. It is almost criminal the shape the army is in. For now we need time and equipment more than simply manpower to deal with this crisis. Of course it is possible that some don’t see the need for such steps.”
Silence hung in the room. Bono answered slowly “You mistake my questions for a lack of enthusiasm my dear general.” He looked over at Balbo “Of course I agree with your ultimate goals I just was questioning some of your methods.” He smiled sweetly, “Do go on….”
Interlude and Explanation
(I include this section in part to explain and foreshadow what is coming in my next post). This is not AH put rather part of an account I found in Duce!, The Rise and Fall of Mussolini by Richard Collier. The books is actually a bit of a mess, difficult to read but is full of these interesting little stories)
Ristorante Italia, Ferrara – July 14, 1938
Marshal Balbo jammed his foot against the door of the restaurant and forced it open for his companion. Balbo noisily shouted that waiters should come and seat his companion and himself for a lunch. After some hesitation the staff scurried to obey. The manager looked at Balbo’s companion and nearly fainted. He walked up to the marshal. “Ah Marshal of course we are most grateful to have you here, but your companion….”
Balbo interrupted him “Do you mean the mayor. He is my friend. My close friend would you deny him a seat?”
The manager stammered “It is just that there have been some changes since you took up your post overseas, perhaps…”
Balbo stopped him “Listen to me you miserable little toad. I know well the law and who this man is. I chose to break bread with him and call him my friend. If you deny him a seat you deny me one and make me an enemy. Now is there a table or no?”
The pair was quickly shown the best table in the house.****
*In July of 1940 the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey agreed to supply Vichy and later even Nazi Germany with access to oil. In 1942 in our TL the head of a Standard Oil subsidiary (Standard UG Farben) name William Farish (from Texas) plead ‘no contest’ to a criminal conspiracy charge of dealing with the Nazis but Standard Oil got off with just $5,000 fine.
**Believe it or not the ‘Organization for the Surveillance and Stamping out of Anti-Fascism”
***Again an event that occurred in our TL in slightly different circumstances
****Renzo Ravanna the former mayor of Ferrara had only recently been replaced and put under a cloud thanks to the race laws of November 17, 1938. Balbo was having none of it. This lunch was the culmination of Balbo’s trip home from Libya. He had flown into Rome and paid a call on almost all the prominent Jews in Rome then invited the mayor to dine with him openly at lunch.
This was also one of the seeds of Balbo’s growing dissatisfaction with Il Duce. By the summer of 1940 the two men seemed to have settled into a degree of mutual distain.
The Plane to Lisbon or the Beginning of the Greek Gambit
January 2, 1941 – Residence of the Italian Ambassador, Lisbon
Count Ciano sat sipping a large glass of rather expensive champagne. The embassy party had dragged on now for several hours and he made a great show of drinking, especially in front of the German Charge de Affair. Finally the German had tired of Ciano’s company and had drifted away. Causally, with the grace of a practiced aristocratic drunkard Ciano left the main salon and walked to a back room. As he opened the ornate door he saw that the room was illuminated by a single dull lamp that cast just enough light to silhouette a man sitting on small loveseat facing the door. As Ciano entered his eye noticed a dull glow from a cigar the man was smoking. Ciano spoke “My apologies for the delay my dear sir. I can’t not tell you how tedious it is when the Germans try to prove the myth of their work ethic by applying it to champagne consumption.”
The seated man did not move forward into the light. Ciano only saw his cigar come up and briefly flare brighter as he took a draw. The man replied to Ciano’s gambit in flawless Italian with just a trace of Milanese accent. “The Germans are wont to prove themselves superior in all endeavors. It is one of their most annoying traits. Of course the Italians rarely try to prove anything, they just assume superiority.” Ciano laughed but made no reply. The Englishman continued “This is your meeting Mr. Prime Minister. Your state visit, your parade, your proposal….”
Ciano took a seat some distance from the Englishman. He removed a small cigarette case, tapped a fag against the silver and lit it. Taking a breath he relaxed back into his chair. “Those of us in Italy…’ The Englishman interrupted “You mean Marshal Balbo”. Ciano smiled and took another drag then continued. “Those of us in Italy felt it necessary to offer your government our direct assurances over the looming crisis in the Balkans. We were sure you were concerned about the German moves there.” Silence greeted the implied question. “The Germans have already brought to Hungarians and Romanians into the fold. We feel that an extension of this to either Bulgaria or Yugoslavia might not be in the interest of your government?” Again silence, Ciano went on “In fact we feel an overwhelming German presence might not be in our own interest. We think that Paul* will likely join the Germans if the Yugoslavians feel they have no choice. We would prefer an alternative for them.”
“For a price no doubt.” Interrupted the Englishman
“Everything has a price my dear sir.” Continued Ciano “If Italy were to seek to preserve either Bulgarian or Yugoslavian independence we would require assurances and acceptance.” Ciano flicked the growing ash from his cigarette casually onto the floor. “Of course overt support would be most difficult, but support in conjunction with your own efforts might prove quite worthwhile. Any price would of course be conditional.” The Englishman remained silent. “Should conflict erupt despite our efforts Italy would feel it proper to protect our interest in Dalmatia. We could even extend protection to Serbia should she suffer in the war. Perhaps a protectorate from the Germans?”
The Englishman took another long draw on his cigar, then spoke. “His majesty’s government would be willing to concede spheres of influence in the Balkans should the Germans attempt a forcible readjustment of the borders. Of course if Italy was willing to actually become an ally of England…
Ciano raised his hand to stop the train of thought. “Our current position makes an overt alliance with England impossible. Any such step would likely result in the invasion of Italy and we have no desire to repeat the calamities of the last war.” He paused “But as I said we can take steps to protect those minor powers with whom you have been in contact or at least the elements of their government you have been working with.” He paused looking at the Englishman for a denial or affirmation, but only silence came from the seated figure. “We also feel that total and direct control of the Balkans by the Germans is not in the interest of Italy. We also can offer some additional intelligence details about Germany, nothing too dramatic but a good deal of general information….”
The Englishman rose. He buttoned his slim black dinner jacket and slicked back his hair with one hand. With the other he extinguished his cigar in a convenient ashtray. “I will report” he stopped for a moment then continued “with a recommendation of acceptance our conversation here. If there is a border adjustment a tacit acceptance of Italian influence in preserving some level of independence for the Yugoslavs and the Bulgarians. In addition limited cooperation between our intelligence agencies regarding German capabilities and goals.”
The War in the Mist: Germany, Italy and England, the Triple Game, Basil Press, Durham NC, 1979
….England was quite willing to recognize any Italian fait accompli if German moved against either Yugoslavia or Bulgaria. In fact she had little capability to resist either move unless the Greeks again played their role from the first war. By the Spring it had become clear to Whitehall that any Balkan operation hinged on the Greeks. The idea of an Italian buffer between any British landing on mainland Greece and the German army had a definite appeal. Either circumstance would compel the Italians to openly switch sides or any immediate advance from such landings would face the weaker Italian forces and not the Germans.
*Prince Paul of Yugoslavia
Count Ciano sat sipping a large glass of rather expensive champagne. The embassy party had dragged on now for several hours and he made a great show of drinking, especially in front of the German Charge de Affair. Finally the German had tired of Ciano’s company and had drifted away. Causally, with the grace of a practiced aristocratic drunkard Ciano left the main salon and walked to a back room. As he opened the ornate door he saw that the room was illuminated by a single dull lamp that cast just enough light to silhouette a man sitting on small loveseat facing the door. As Ciano entered his eye noticed a dull glow from a cigar the man was smoking. Ciano spoke “My apologies for the delay my dear sir. I can’t not tell you how tedious it is when the Germans try to prove the myth of their work ethic by applying it to champagne consumption.”
The seated man did not move forward into the light. Ciano only saw his cigar come up and briefly flare brighter as he took a draw. The man replied to Ciano’s gambit in flawless Italian with just a trace of Milanese accent. “The Germans are wont to prove themselves superior in all endeavors. It is one of their most annoying traits. Of course the Italians rarely try to prove anything, they just assume superiority.” Ciano laughed but made no reply. The Englishman continued “This is your meeting Mr. Prime Minister. Your state visit, your parade, your proposal….”
Ciano took a seat some distance from the Englishman. He removed a small cigarette case, tapped a fag against the silver and lit it. Taking a breath he relaxed back into his chair. “Those of us in Italy…’ The Englishman interrupted “You mean Marshal Balbo”. Ciano smiled and took another drag then continued. “Those of us in Italy felt it necessary to offer your government our direct assurances over the looming crisis in the Balkans. We were sure you were concerned about the German moves there.” Silence greeted the implied question. “The Germans have already brought to Hungarians and Romanians into the fold. We feel that an extension of this to either Bulgaria or Yugoslavia might not be in the interest of your government?” Again silence, Ciano went on “In fact we feel an overwhelming German presence might not be in our own interest. We think that Paul* will likely join the Germans if the Yugoslavians feel they have no choice. We would prefer an alternative for them.”
“For a price no doubt.” Interrupted the Englishman
“Everything has a price my dear sir.” Continued Ciano “If Italy were to seek to preserve either Bulgarian or Yugoslavian independence we would require assurances and acceptance.” Ciano flicked the growing ash from his cigarette casually onto the floor. “Of course overt support would be most difficult, but support in conjunction with your own efforts might prove quite worthwhile. Any price would of course be conditional.” The Englishman remained silent. “Should conflict erupt despite our efforts Italy would feel it proper to protect our interest in Dalmatia. We could even extend protection to Serbia should she suffer in the war. Perhaps a protectorate from the Germans?”
The Englishman took another long draw on his cigar, then spoke. “His majesty’s government would be willing to concede spheres of influence in the Balkans should the Germans attempt a forcible readjustment of the borders. Of course if Italy was willing to actually become an ally of England…
Ciano raised his hand to stop the train of thought. “Our current position makes an overt alliance with England impossible. Any such step would likely result in the invasion of Italy and we have no desire to repeat the calamities of the last war.” He paused “But as I said we can take steps to protect those minor powers with whom you have been in contact or at least the elements of their government you have been working with.” He paused looking at the Englishman for a denial or affirmation, but only silence came from the seated figure. “We also feel that total and direct control of the Balkans by the Germans is not in the interest of Italy. We also can offer some additional intelligence details about Germany, nothing too dramatic but a good deal of general information….”
The Englishman rose. He buttoned his slim black dinner jacket and slicked back his hair with one hand. With the other he extinguished his cigar in a convenient ashtray. “I will report” he stopped for a moment then continued “with a recommendation of acceptance our conversation here. If there is a border adjustment a tacit acceptance of Italian influence in preserving some level of independence for the Yugoslavs and the Bulgarians. In addition limited cooperation between our intelligence agencies regarding German capabilities and goals.”
The War in the Mist: Germany, Italy and England, the Triple Game, Basil Press, Durham NC, 1979
….England was quite willing to recognize any Italian fait accompli if German moved against either Yugoslavia or Bulgaria. In fact she had little capability to resist either move unless the Greeks again played their role from the first war. By the Spring it had become clear to Whitehall that any Balkan operation hinged on the Greeks. The idea of an Italian buffer between any British landing on mainland Greece and the German army had a definite appeal. Either circumstance would compel the Italians to openly switch sides or any immediate advance from such landings would face the weaker Italian forces and not the Germans.
*Prince Paul of Yugoslavia
hipper
Banned
Yes they would from Wikipedia
"One lesson that was learnt from World War I was that although the navy could stop ships on the open seas, little could be done about traders who acted as the middleman, importing materials the Nazis needed into their own neutral country then transporting it overland to Germany for a profit.[25] Leigh–Ross spent the months before the war compiling a massive dossier on the annual quantities of materials the countries bordering Germany normally imported so that if they exceeded these levels in wartime, pressure could be brought on the authorities in those countries to take action. Diplomats from the Scandinavian nations, as well as Italy and the Balkan countries, who were also major suppliers to Germany, were given quota lists of various commodities and told they could import these amounts and no more, or action would be taken against them".
If Italy imported more oil than it did pre war the UK would prevent oil from other sources (America) from reaching Italy. Alfieri would be in no doubt about this.
The soviet Union would have to supply Italy's entire pre war supply before any could be spared to re export to Germany.
Well, while this is true, there is the problem that unlike the other nations Italy is one of the big boys...so some more leeway will be given and more importantly, at the moment the UK face Germany alone, France have fallen and all the pre-war plan (that heavily implied that Italy in any case will have entered the war at German side) have gone down the toilet...at the moment the UK need the italian dow as a brain cancer , so while supply everything the German need will be out fo the question, i doubt that London will decide to launch an attack if some more is imported
I have to say, you have an excellent timeline going here, very unique. Looking forward to the continuation
hipper
Banned
The UK is not launching an attack it would just stop some of the tankers carrying oil for Italy and buy the oil for itself instead. One the Post Italy had its Oil imports restricted in OTL what is different this time .
Are you suggesting that the RN would stop and impound USA oil tankers steaming toward Italy? That I would really like to see.
Maybe you mean that the British would try to convince the USA to lean on the oil companies in order to avoid large consignment of oil to Italy, but they'd do better to ask very nicely and there is no guarantee that it would work. It might even backfire if clumsily handed.
The British would talk to FDR, who would certainly be willing to lean on the oil companies, having no love for Germans. As you said, it needs to be delicately handled, though. At present, the Italians really aren't being all that threatening, and upping the importation of oil isn't hostile, even though everyone will know that some of it will be destined for Germany.
Agreed. The big difference with OTL is that in this TL Italy is firmly an armed neutral, maybe even a greedy armed neutral but it is not a belligerent. 1940 is also a presidential election year in the USA: if FDR leans too hard or if the oil companies balk, it could be a problem for him too.
hipper
Banned
US oil tankers, passenger liners and the US mail 62 US ships of all kinds by November 1939.
Again from Wikipedia
U.S. reaction to the British blockade
Passenger ships were also subject to Contraband Control because they carried luggage and small cargo items such as postal mail and parcels, and the Americans were particularly furious at the British insistence on opening all mail destined for Germany.[29] By 25 November 1939, 62 U.S. ships of various types had been stopped, some for as long as three weeks, and a lot of behind-the-scenes diplomacy took place to smooth over the political fallout. On 22 December the US State Department made a formal protest, to no avail. On 30 December the Manhattan, carrying 400 tons of small cargo, sailed from New York to deliver mail to Italy, but was stopped six days later by a British destroyer at Gibraltar. Although the captain went ashore to make a furious protest to the authorities with the American Consulate, the ship was delayed for 40 hours as British Contraband Control checked the records and ship's manifest, eventually removing 235 bags of mail addressed to Germany.
In the U.S., with its tradition that "the mail must always get through", and where armed robbery of the mail carried a mandatory 25-year jail term, there were calls for mail to be carried on warships, but the exercise – as with all such journeys – was repeated on the homeward leg as Contraband Control searched the ship again for anything of value that might have been taken out of Germany. On 22 January the UK ambassador was handed a note from the State Department calling the practice 'wholly unwarrantable' and demanding immediate correction. But despite the British Foreign Office urging the Ministry of Economic Warfare to be cautious for fear of damaging relations with the US, the British claimed to have uncovered a nationwide US conspiracy to send clothing, jewels, securities, cash, foodstuffs, chocolate, coffee and soap to Germany through the post, and there was no climbdown.
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Okay, I didn't know all of that. With Italy being fairly neutral, is the UK going to risk alienating them? I assume the UK doesn't know about the oil deal. It seems like interdicting mail is one thing, but to blockade a neutral is quite another.
hipper
Banned
They would notice Russian or Italian tankers passing through the Bosphorus
The quote below is from wiki about the British blockade in WW2
I’ve given you the details I suggest you google the Navicert certificate and what it meant for neutral shipping. For part of 1939 the Uk allowed German coal shipped in Neutral shipping from Amsterdam to be sent to Italy but when Italy refused to sell the UK War material they stopped that. Remember the UK and France thought correctly that Germany was vulnerable due to raw materials shortages Oil was one of their main targets and they took a lot of time and effort to stop world trade with Germany. The UK is not going to let Italy import excess oil and send it to Germany.
Regards Hipper
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That happened IOTL, and at a stage when France and the UK had reasonable hopes of stopping the Germans (it was the middle of the phony war, wasn't it?).
6 months later the situation is completely different: France has fallen, and Italy is still neutral and is making friendly moves.
Not to mention that the presidential elections are barely 6 months away.
Is the UK going to piss off everyone?
hipper
Banned
the UK announced a selective Blocade of Italy in September 1939 by the Time of the POD the Blocade had already been intensified to include coal, The UK has already taken the political flack for imposing the Blockade. Ie everyone is pissed off already
The question should be what incentives can Italy give for relaxation of the Blockade.
In 1940 the RN took german Civilians off a Japanese passenger liner in the Sea of Japan . The RN was not that worried about pissing people off.
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