I wonder, what happens to Idi Amin ITTL? Perhaps he becomes a fervent Fascist or worst, Nazi?
The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
Given how from what I understand his superiors respected his determination and physicality but not his intellect, he might well just only rise to being the RSM of the King's African Rifles or an equivalent.
Well he certainly was one in OTL, he just didn't call himself one, nor was called one by the useful idiots abroad.
So I vote butterflied away,please. If he takes power and does anything close to his OTL actions in TTL, then the RAs pro-colonialism agenda will have it's propaganda work done for it for the next few decades. Just picture the newsreels of Ugandan refugees crossing to Italian East Africa, begging for Il Duce to protect them from an African Nationalist Dictator. Or Indian businessmen, shopkeepers, etc feeling back to India and bitter over having their livelihoods expropriated agitating for India to align themselves with the RA, since the Brits are too timid and useless to protect them from the deprivations of the savage hordes of insert various racial slurs here.
It is really possible that many of OTL worst dictators like Amin, Mobutu and Bokassa are butterflied away or they are quiet different. These nations had many other potential candidates to be leaders of their nations.
And surely there will not be antisemitic leader. After Hitler, Stalin and Aflaq world is not going tolerate such people.
And surely there will not be antisemitic leader. After Hitler, Stalin and Aflaq world is not going tolerate such people.
Bookmark1995
Banned
I don't think Amin, Bokassa, and other African nutcases can be easily put on a spectrum. The proper term for them would be "Caligula." They never followed any specific creed beyond "what will give me the most power." Amin started out as something of a fascist by expelling the Indians who ran Uganda's economy. But by the time he fled in 1979, he left behind mass graves, the tortured remains of his victims, and a nation in utter ruin. He had done nothing but treat his fellow Ugandans as his personal slaves.
What regime the TTL African leaders build will be influenced by what ideology, well, works.
Many African nations turned to the Soviet Union, because they thought Marxism-Leninism was the path to liberation. And in fairness, the OTL Africans were liberated because of communist aid.
TTL, the USSR has far less prestige and reputation. The Soviet leaders have repeated the crimes of the Nazis, subjected their satellites to the horror of nuclear annihilation, tanked their economy, and tied their boats to failures like Aflaq and Mao.
Fascism, so far, has worked in providing stability, prosperity, and a sense of identity to many people. But there seem to be hints that it will go into decline. If fascism also proves to lose luster, than it won't be the ideology of inspiration anymore.
Hopefully, African leaders TTL might pursue a more moderate path.
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First off, happy new year everyone. Here's to a hopefully brighter decade.
Second, if I'm going to throw my own hat into this debate/argument's ring, here are my predictions:
Africa will be, in a manner somewhat similar to neocolonialism or the concept of Francafrique, divided into various zones of influence.
Judging by previous examples in Sri Lanka, Burma and Malay/Malaysia, the Commonwealth nations have slightly better odds than the rest of the continent, as Britain has a vested interest in A) retaining as much influence as possible, B) preventing the post-colonial nations from turning to either fascism or communism, and C) has more funds this time to develop them. However, the 'settler states' of Rhodesia and South Africa, absorbing a huge amount of Polish refugees earlier, are almost certainly going to break away once decolonisation begins in earnest and the Commonwealth truly evolves from the Empire, and will most likely partner up with the fascists - this has already been stated to lead to immense tragedy, so I'll stop there. Generally, I'd expect the Commonwealth zone to be mostly democratic, not as well-developed as Europe but nothing like our Africa, and to most likely retain the British monarchy more than the OTL monarchy as a way of tying everyone closer and a sign of who runs the Commonwealth at the end of the day.
From what we've heard and seen, the Fascist colonies are likely to have a better and worse time of it than anyone else. Portugal is stated to come out of the Polish immigration encouragement thing the best of all three takers (South Africa, Portugal, Rhodesia) by coupling the Polish influx with a settler and evangelist boom in their African colonies, which, coupled with the easy assimilation policy of "join the church and you're one of us", effectively ensures that Portugal holds onto Mozambique and Angola where in RL they lost them. Similarly, Libya is so Italianised and well-integrated it's an actual part of the country now, and Spanish Morroco doesn't look as though it's going anywhere. At the same time, Italian East Africa is the worst place on the continent, and it's almost inevitable that they're going to pull out of what is, let's face it, a costly boondoggle that ties down valuable resources as soon as the Fascist regime falls. Maybe not the whole of it - Somalia and Eritrea might, out of fear of an Ethiopia they've spent huge amounts of time oppressing along with the Italians deciding to take revenge the second their protector falls away, stick with Italy in an protectorate-style dealie on the lines of what France did with Indochina, but Ethiopia's definitely got to go. Honestly, I want to hope that the post-Mussolini Ethiopian state will turn out democratic, but it could go any number of ways; the old Empire could be restored as anything from a constitutional monarchy to an ironically fascist-in-all-but-name royal dictatorship, maybe it'll run as a sham democracy like Russia, hell, it could end up a rogue state a la North Korea by going communist just to spike the football that little bit more.
The Belgian Congo is, likewise, not going to be pretty from what's been implied. Here's my estimate of what'll happen - costly colonial war with Belgium going all in, at best (for the Belgians) they keep some coastal land, at worst (for the Belgians and broader West) the Congo War becomes a counterpart to Vietnam, with the RA backing it instead of the Russians. Either way, I have a strong feeling the Congo will kick out the Belgians, go fascist, and become the first Fascist African proxy-state, intensifying the Cool War.
The French aftermath, I think, will be a mixed bag. The wealthier post-colonial nations/provinces will probably get the honey treatment (in some sort of Francophonie arrangement that is less picky about dictators than the Commonwealth), the desert-ier nations will likely just get abandoned, while certain others France will fight to the death for. The Algerian troubles are likely gonna be up there with the IRA in terms of hot-button issues in the late 20th century, and while I believe the coast will be retained, the interior will be lost, if only because De Gaulle nuked them in the Arab War for... less than morally perfect reasons and there's just no forgetting that. Though expect Berber nationalism instead of Arab nationalism. So, to surmise; the wealthier regions, effectively puppets of France, will likely be democracies for reasons of presentability, the nations France just lets go of will likely become a mixed bag of democracies and warlord states, and some regions will stays as overseas departments - I think France'll be a lot more willing to take Gabon's offer this time 'round.
That should about cover it.
Second, if I'm going to throw my own hat into this debate/argument's ring, here are my predictions:
Africa will be, in a manner somewhat similar to neocolonialism or the concept of Francafrique, divided into various zones of influence.
Judging by previous examples in Sri Lanka, Burma and Malay/Malaysia, the Commonwealth nations have slightly better odds than the rest of the continent, as Britain has a vested interest in A) retaining as much influence as possible, B) preventing the post-colonial nations from turning to either fascism or communism, and C) has more funds this time to develop them. However, the 'settler states' of Rhodesia and South Africa, absorbing a huge amount of Polish refugees earlier, are almost certainly going to break away once decolonisation begins in earnest and the Commonwealth truly evolves from the Empire, and will most likely partner up with the fascists - this has already been stated to lead to immense tragedy, so I'll stop there. Generally, I'd expect the Commonwealth zone to be mostly democratic, not as well-developed as Europe but nothing like our Africa, and to most likely retain the British monarchy more than the OTL monarchy as a way of tying everyone closer and a sign of who runs the Commonwealth at the end of the day.
From what we've heard and seen, the Fascist colonies are likely to have a better and worse time of it than anyone else. Portugal is stated to come out of the Polish immigration encouragement thing the best of all three takers (South Africa, Portugal, Rhodesia) by coupling the Polish influx with a settler and evangelist boom in their African colonies, which, coupled with the easy assimilation policy of "join the church and you're one of us", effectively ensures that Portugal holds onto Mozambique and Angola where in RL they lost them. Similarly, Libya is so Italianised and well-integrated it's an actual part of the country now, and Spanish Morroco doesn't look as though it's going anywhere. At the same time, Italian East Africa is the worst place on the continent, and it's almost inevitable that they're going to pull out of what is, let's face it, a costly boondoggle that ties down valuable resources as soon as the Fascist regime falls. Maybe not the whole of it - Somalia and Eritrea might, out of fear of an Ethiopia they've spent huge amounts of time oppressing along with the Italians deciding to take revenge the second their protector falls away, stick with Italy in an protectorate-style dealie on the lines of what France did with Indochina, but Ethiopia's definitely got to go. Honestly, I want to hope that the post-Mussolini Ethiopian state will turn out democratic, but it could go any number of ways; the old Empire could be restored as anything from a constitutional monarchy to an ironically fascist-in-all-but-name royal dictatorship, maybe it'll run as a sham democracy like Russia, hell, it could end up a rogue state a la North Korea by going communist just to spike the football that little bit more.
The Belgian Congo is, likewise, not going to be pretty from what's been implied. Here's my estimate of what'll happen - costly colonial war with Belgium going all in, at best (for the Belgians) they keep some coastal land, at worst (for the Belgians and broader West) the Congo War becomes a counterpart to Vietnam, with the RA backing it instead of the Russians. Either way, I have a strong feeling the Congo will kick out the Belgians, go fascist, and become the first Fascist African proxy-state, intensifying the Cool War.
The French aftermath, I think, will be a mixed bag. The wealthier post-colonial nations/provinces will probably get the honey treatment (in some sort of Francophonie arrangement that is less picky about dictators than the Commonwealth), the desert-ier nations will likely just get abandoned, while certain others France will fight to the death for. The Algerian troubles are likely gonna be up there with the IRA in terms of hot-button issues in the late 20th century, and while I believe the coast will be retained, the interior will be lost, if only because De Gaulle nuked them in the Arab War for... less than morally perfect reasons and there's just no forgetting that. Though expect Berber nationalism instead of Arab nationalism. So, to surmise; the wealthier regions, effectively puppets of France, will likely be democracies for reasons of presentability, the nations France just lets go of will likely become a mixed bag of democracies and warlord states, and some regions will stays as overseas departments - I think France'll be a lot more willing to take Gabon's offer this time 'round.
That should about cover it.
I seriously doubt post-Mussolini Ethiopia would be democratic but there is a good guarantee it might at least be Fascistic in practice, considering it was moving there prior to '35.
Precisely; that's why I said 'I want to hope' - partly because I'm an optimistic guy, partly because the irony would be delicious, but I know that, in practice, it's probably gonna end up a dictatorship. The only question is, to what degree?
Depends on who takes power which could be a whole slew of Ethiopian leaders and whether or not the Italians have a vested interest in puppetizing Ethiopia. That could be Seyoum Mengesha, Imru Haile Selassie, Araya Abebe, etc.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Yeah, if the settlers of Rhodesia and South Africa are taking their cues from the fascists, not only is apartheid going to deepen, both nations could lose any semblance of democracy they had OTL.
If Westminster sees British Africa as strategically important, then nations like Kenya might have funds needed to be more prosperous than OTL.
Well, Portugal won't face the colonial wars that brought down Estado Novo without the USSR and China, so they have a good chance . Whether or not the whole "equality under the Kingdom of God" thing would work really depends on if the Portuguese couple that with actual economic and social benefits. When Portuguese left their colonies OTL, they left behind an extremely uneducated and impoverished black majority. If they continue denying Africans services, the colonial war could come a generation later.
Italian Libya seems to be successful in its Italianization. Eritrea and Somalia also have a shot, considering their sparse population. Ethiopia could become "Fascism's Vietnam", considering the hostility of many Italians and the barriers (geographic and cultural) to Italianization.
I think there are many paths post-fascist Ethiopia could turn out: the best scenario is "Botswana." The worst case scenario is "Zimbabwe". Somewhere in the middle is an African government full of pride, but not wealth, like Kenneth Kaunda's Zambia, which was a major diplomatic power in Africa, but also very poor.
Or the Belgians might be able to hold to Katanga province.
Yeah, French Africa won't be fun, precisely because De Gaulle used a goddamn nuke.
The best case scenario is an elderly Haile Selassie returning to his country after a prolonged absence to roaring crowds of Eithopians, and pulling a Juan Carlos by bringing democracy.
Or someone like Afawarq Gebre Iyasus takes power and establishes a Fascist Ethiopia.
Haile Selassie was willing to adopt democracy, albeit in a controlled fashion, and this TL might have enough butterflies that sees him turn in favor of it. I seriously doubt there's anyone else in Ethiopia who's supporting democratic government.
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The End of the Beginning
The End of the Beginning
Extract from ‘El Pueblo, Unido’ by Rodrigo Diaz
Extract from ‘El Pueblo, Unido’ by Rodrigo Diaz
The seeds of successful rebellion in Cuba were sown in October 1954, when Batista, in an effort to increase his prestige to the Roman Alliance, decided to crack down on the Mafia to gain the attention and support of Mussolini. The Mafia, enjoying a Golden Age in America, had created a veritable Pleasure Island in the sunny Caribbean state, with gambling parlors, good-time girls and exotic drinks on exotic beaches. When Batista started cracking down on the Mafia, the casinos were shut down, the acts stopped coming and the Mob wasn’t making money. This put Batista on the Mob’s hit-list, as they planned to get back on top, as well as giving a bloody nose to their eternal enemy in Mussolini, who by this point had essentially exterminated the Mafia in mainland Italy, Sardinia and Sicily. But while the Mob in Italy (outside of Libya and East Africa) was long gone, the American Mafia had more than enough resources to fancy their chances against the chronically unpopular Batista, whose seizure of power had alienated almost all stratum of society. It took a while for their golden-boy to appear, but appear he did.
Fidel Castro and his brother Raul were both working on overthrowing the Cuban leadership in the July 26th Movement (commemorating an attack on a Cuban army barracks). While both had previously expressed some interest in Communism, the revelations of what was happening to the Jews of the Soviet Union and the nuclear bombing of Poland were enough to repel them, or at least make them realize that the ideology was so unpopular that it was suicide to associate themselves with it. Their movement was floundering by 1956 and seemingly on its last legs, especially since they had competition from the avowed Marxist Che Guevara, whose ‘Cuban Revolutionary Front’ received Soviet backing under Khrushchev. But just when it seemed they were done for, the Second Arabian War began, and Batista sent multiple troops to Spain to try and win glory in Morocco. This gave some breathing room for Castro, especially as the Cuban economy continued to decline due to corruption mixed with a fall in tourism with Mafia-owned resorts being forced to shut down. This was when Castro began to meet representatives in La Cosa Nostra, who offered financial support on the condition that Castro bring back their bars, brothels and gambling dens to Havana. Castro, cynical after his fallout from the Left and desperate for anything he could get, reluctantly assented. By the beginning of 1957, Castro’s forces were better stocked than Che’s by a mile, with even the Cuban army looking cheap in comparison. Batista knew the war-weary US wanted nothing to do with his conflict, and that it would be both incendiary and embarrassing to import Italian troops and advisors to flush out Castro’s men. For that reason, he decided to lie to his Roman Alliance compatriots, telling them that Castro was on his last legs. He certainly succeeded, with the Roman Alliance turning to other matters.
Then, in February 1958, Cuba was hit by news that stunned all who heard. After a reported massacre by Batista’s men in a number of villages on the south of the island, America had demanded Batista step down, immediately. The Kennedy Administration, now deeply concerned about the extent of Fascism’s reach in Latin America, had reversed tack on a number of Right-Wing dictatorships, saying they were not only bad for human rights but bad opponents of Communism. Batista, enraged, expelled the US ambassador from the island, but by now, his fate was cast in stone. Castro’s men had a sudden surge of morale, with the Cuban economy tanking even faster than it had been the previous year. American tourists fled, and the money did too. On April 2nd, 1958, with Batista’s underpaid, undervalued men simply refusing to fight, the July 26th Movement saw their troops enter Havana, with the Castro brothers at the vanguard. Batista would flee to Spain, where he would spend the rest of his life. In the elections that were hastily organized for the end of June, the July 26th Movement (swiftly renamed to ‘The Cuban People’s Party’) received 60% of the Parliamentary vote, the Liberal Party roughly 23%, 10% to the Corporatist Auténtico and the most of the remainder to the Communists (Progressive Action, Batista’s party, had been banned). At the same time, Castro won a vote for the Presidency at 70%. Naturally, the Communists accused Castro of rigging the election and Guevara promised to “Fight Bourgeois Castro as fanatically as we fought Fascist Batista!” With a democratic mandate and the assurance that Guevara’s Marxist movement would continue to be opposed militarily, Castro had ensured that he had the ear of Washington – a Washington that was obsessed with finding a way to get a leg-up on Fascism and installing (American-supporting) democracies across the region.
On July 20th, Castro flew to Washington where he personally met both Kennedy and Nixon, who ingratiated him immensely. Kennedy promised funds to get Cuba going again, particularly money for Cuba’s health and education system as well as military support against both Che and Fascist forces that had refused to give up. This would be given on the condition that Castro continued to closely align Cuba’s economy to America’s, with a mixed-market Capitalist economy where the rights of American companies were respected (i.e. no nationalizing). Again, faced with little choice, Castro agreed to respect the rights of Americans within the country in return for American funding to help with regional inequality and poverty. As a result, within five years, almost all Cuban children were getting a decent education, Cuban healthcare was the best in Latin America and Cubans had a living standard equal to Fascist Europe. At the same time, Havana had become a city synonymous with what people alternatively saw as fun and thrills or sleaze and decadence. The city was fit to bursting with American tourists, and the owners of many of the resorts were also American, though not exactly the most altruistic types. Indeed, even to this day, Cuban-Americans are almost as associated with the Mafia as Italian-Americans. Cuba would be the site of countless tales of Mob intrigues in the coming years and decades, and not even the rise of Las Vegas could fully dent the reputation she had made for herself as Pleasure Island. Acts from all across America, from Frank Sinatra to Miles Davis made their presence known in Cuba, making the island a cultural as well as an economic hotspot, with Manuel Mirabal and other Cuban artists began to make waves among Spanish-speaking American audiences. But while the long-term consequences of the Cuban Revolution were vast, the short-term consequences were just as important, particularly in the neighboring Fascist Republics scattered throughout the Americas. The moment was best captured by a speech Richard Nixon would give when in Havana on August 4th, saying, “We can see that in a part of the world more known for its summers, a new season has begun – spring. Spring not just for Cuba, but all of Latin America.” Though he didn’t precisely say the words, ‘The Latin Spring’ would come to define the waves of revolt that simmered through South America after the fall of the Cuban dictatorship.
For Che Guevara, he continued his fruitless struggle against Castro’s Presidency before being eventually captured and sent to La Cabaña prison in 1962. His imprisonment, ending with his ultimately dying in 2007, would be the deathblow to Marxism in Cuba, which exists today only as a scorned, mocked remnant much like the rest of the world. Batista would rage at Castro for the rest of his life, though he would eventually die in Spain, unloved and unwanted in his home country. For Castro himself, he would ride out his reign with glory, until he finally fell in scandal in 1972 after it emerged that he was embezzling funds to give them to his young mistress whom he was not only having illicit relations with, but was an agent of the Havana Mafia. Subsequent investigations showed his connections to the world of underground crime that had emerged from the Revolutionary War. In return for an official pardon, he resigned his post and lived the remainder of his life in relative obscurity, though his brother Raúl would eventually win the Presidency in 1992, holding it for two terms. As he died in 2016, statesmen of all countries mourned him as the man who restored Cuban democracy, lit the flame of freedom across Latin America and made Cuba the First-World country it is today.
After Cuba, the first country that would be hit by the Latin Spring would be the Dominican Republic. Rafael Trujillo, the resident dictator, had already been on thin ice since the murder of Jesús Suárez in New York but the change in international allegiances had forced a change in American policy towards the Dominican Republic, with American diplomats openly supporting the calls for democracy. The opposition, united under Juan Bosch and supported by American money, was emboldened by the fall of Batista to press their claims against Trujillo. However, Trujillo had no intention of bending towards what he described as ‘Haitian Insurrection’. He had of course already murdered 30,000 Haitians in the Parsley Massacre of 1937, so killing was no problem for him. On August 10th, 500 protestors in Santo Domingo (re-named ‘Trujillo City’) were massacred under Trujillo’s orders, leading to an exodus towards the Haitian border. When Haitian president, ‘Papa Doc’ Duvalier, made a statement the next day that any attempt to massacre Haitian refugees trying to flee to Haiti would be met with resistance, Trujillo laughed it off. On August 12th, Dominican troops were astonished to see Cuban volunteers standing at the border, battle-hardened in a way that the Dominicans were not. With American weapons and superior training, the Cubans took seven casualties, while the Dominicans received over 100. The embarrassing incident was precisely the fuel that the Dominican Resistance needed, and suddenly finding more weapons than they knew what to do with (typically arriving on beaches from ‘unmarked ships’), they took the fight to the Trujillo regime, now under American embargo. This was a signal to the business elite and aristocracy of the island that their last chance for preservation came down to getting rid of Trujillo, and so he was. On August 14th, Trujillo’s car exploded on the road, later discovered to be a planted bomb. The Dominican military, recognizing the hopelessness of the situation and listening with desperate hope to American guarantees that the status of the old elite could be mostly preserved, announced that the calls of the reformers would be met, and that Democratic elections would begin in October, which would ultimately put Juan Bosch in charge of the country. His neighbor, Duvalier, would become a hero to Haiti for having defied the Dominicans, which allowed Duvalier to get away with some of his worst crimes in the coming years. It wasn’t so much being democratic that America cared about (though that was a bonus), but whether you swore allegiance to Rome or Moscow. With the Dominican Republic now freed from Trujillo’s insanity, normality in many ways had returned to the Caribbean.
Calls for reforms reverberated through the remainder of Central-America, with Honduras and Panama being forced into deep reforms. However, the only country that significantly resisted these calls in the region was Nicaragua, the final surviving member of the Roman Alliance in North America. Somoza Garciá, the head of the Plutocratic Somoza family, resisted the calls for reform with fanaticism, saying on September 17th that, ‘Nicaragua will be ashes before it will be Red’. Managua was rocked with riots for all of September, but more importantly, the rebels actually were actually able to take control of León, Nicaragua’s second-largest city, on September 21st. This set the stage for the long, bloody Nicaraguan Civil War, where the forces of Fascism met the forces of Democracy in the last Fascist stronghold in North America. Venezuela and other local Roman Alliance states would funnel guns to ‘Gallant Somoza’, as he fought with all his might to preserve the Oligarchy that until a few years ago, America was right behind. All other Central American parties withdrew recognition of Somoza, recognizing the head of the Nicaraguan Resistance under the young but charismatic Rigoberto Pérez, noted for his writing poems even in the midst of battle to calm his nerves. As the people were solidly against the Somozas, the Fascists soon called upon mercenaries as well, with South Africans, Frenchmen and especially Spaniards becoming solidly in demand. Naturally, American support continued to pour into the resistance.
Yet in South America itself, the Latin Spring seemed to stop dead. Venezuela and Argentina (who had taken precautions Batista and Trujillo did not have the time to implement) utilized Italian military advisors who were well trained in putting down colonial resistance. The result was that brief moments of protests were ruthlessly crushed in Caracas and Buenos Aires almost as soon as they began. President Jiménez of Venezuela left no room for mercy, even killing the leader of the protest movement, former President Rómulo Betancourt. Paraguayan Dictator Alfredo Stroessner likewise crushed any of his budding reformers and joined the Roman Alliance as well. While democracy hadn’t met its final victory in the Western Hemisphere with the Latin Spring, it had certainly created clear dividing lines. This was underlined on November 1st, 1958, when Franco made an appearance in Caracas. Franco had in a small way been thrilled by the newfound focus on Latin America, believing that he could upstage Turkey and once again become the number two power of the bloc by being the mediator between the Roman Alliance stronghold of Mediterranean Europe and her Latin American allies (while pursuing other, more dangerous side projects). Franco would issue a rallying cry for Fascism in his Caracas speech, arguing that on one side stood the small, Catholic, traditional, communal nations of Latin America and on the other the overbearing, interfering, atheist, debauched, money-money-money Americans. This was of course rich since most of those dictatorships had gotten by for years on American aid and did not seem to regret it. But traditional nationalistic vendetta against the ‘Degenerate Yankees’ was a powerful message, especially to the working class who the Fascists were trying to win over. He repeated his message in Paraguay and Argentina to similar ovation, and his words were not taken without keen interest in the surrounding democratic states as well. Brazil, eager to differentiate itself from the Fascist powers, was admitted into ITO in 1958 and would become something of a democratic regional leader against the Fascists.
Extract from 'The Still Sun: The British Empire after WW2' by Cecil Moore
The Dutch East Indies should not have been held under the sway of the Dutch for anywhere near the length of time it was. The Patton Administration merely put the project on life support, with the local resistance always militarily losing while scoring political victories. The Kennedy Administration was the final blow to the fleeting hopes of only the most exuberant Dutchmen that there was anything sustainable about holding down the will of countless millions of Indonesians. The Dutch announced that in 1958, control would be transferred over to the Indonesian independence movement. The problem was that the nature of Indonesians had totally changed in the last few years. In the late 40s, by far the biggest threat were the Communists, who were the chief target of the American-backed Dutch forces. But by the middle of the 1950s, the Communists had been almost totally obliterated not just militarily, but among the populace as well. The Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) had seen almost of its leaders dead or imprisoned. The new threat was the Masyumi Party, which was Islamist and commanded a wide, fanatical and dedicated support base. It had surged in popularity in recent years owing to popular horror at events in Arabia, with the West being seen as borderline Satanic agents for engineering the downfall of the major Islamic countries of the world. While Muslim reaction to the Second Arabian War varied wildly depending on who was the chief source of resentment at the time (for instance, East Turkestan generally supported the war as they saw the UAR as allied to Communism), in the Dutch East Indies there was no doubt. They hated the Dutch, the Dutch were on the West’s side and that was that. Owing to Dutch leaders dismissing the Islamists as nobodies while desperately pursuing the best way to destroy the final remnants of the shattered (unsupported) Communists, the Dutch allowed the Islamist problem to fester until it was too late. At the same time, with the region still under lockdown due to conflict and the threat of conflict, the people suffered tremendously, with infrastructure and order being among the chief casualties.
On February 1st 1958, Indonesia was finally granted formal independence, with Sukarno as President and Mohammad Hatta as Vice-President. Hatta had been distraught at the suffering of his co-religionists in the Middle East and had become disgusted by the West, while Sukarno recognized that now more than ever that the shattered remnants of Indonesia needed Western support, especially due to Communist and Islamist militants still running around. It was shaping up for a confrontation, and it barely lasted the year. After a slaughter of 100 Islamist protestors in Jakarta on February 1st 1959 who were counter-protesting independence day celebrations under the command of Suharto, Hatta resigned from the government, leading many more Muslims to believe that the state was too avowedly secular. After further riots, the situation only continued to worsen, with Suharto hearing rumors that he was going to be fired. Not wanting to wait for Sukarno’s wrath, Suharto launched a coup on September 12th 1958, killing Sukarno and Hatta, as well as most of Sukarno’s allies in the legislature. At the news of Suharto’s ascendency, the Masyumi demanded a full uprising against the state to make Indonesia an Islamic state. Other groups, likewise terrified of Suharto as well as the Islamists, also attempted to rise up to avoid being crushed by either. In Bali, what little was left of the Communists were still able to gain control over Denpasar, while most of Sumatra fell to the Islamists. The Indonesian Crisis terrified the British in particular as it threatened access to Singapore. It would take the issue of what was to become of Singapore off the table, with the city being declared a Crown Territory much like the Channel Islands on October 1st. The city would become the base of the Royal Navy’s various excursions through the dangerous Indonesian seas. Portugal, sensing an opportunity, occupied the western end of Timor to complete their control over the island on the pretext of putting down Islamism. Regardless of their differences, both the Roman Alliance and ITO knew that a lawless Indonesia was in no one’s interest.
Getting in contact with Suharto, who was holed up in Jakarta which itself had become a firestorm between rival factions, both ITO and Roman Alliance representatives collectively begged Suharto to call down a UN intervention into the country to restore order. Getting guarantees that he would not be forced to step down or be forced into elections, Suharto consented, with Indonesia formally requesting that the UN intervene on September 30th 1958. All the major nations of the Security Council assented, while Brazil abstained. On October 5th, the joint navies of America, Britain, Italy and France began to escort the shipping that moved between the Indonesian islands, as Islamists, Communists, even pirates had attacked many ships moving through the region. On October 6th, UN troops landed in Jakarta with the goal of restoring order in the city, while another contingent of overwhelmingly American UN troops landed in Denpasar, to crush the one area in the country with a Communist government. Faced with overwhelming air and naval power, Denpasar fell on October 17th, marking the end of the first major American military operation since the Chinese War. But that would not be the end or even the beginning of the end of Indonesia’s woes. Though it was, as Ben-Gurion described the founding of Israel, the ‘End of the Beginning’. With the seaways clear, the major threat to Western interests had gone and the liberation of Indonesia was not a prospect that looked rosy or pleasant in the slightest. With the exception of Java, almost all of the Indonesian islands were lost or ungovernable. Portugal had taken over Timor while New Guinea had ‘unified’ due to Australian troops marching westward. The ultimate fate of these two invasions was yet to be seen, but Suharto was much more focussed on reclaiming Sumatra. As Suharto had only gotten to power with such ill-gotten means, many in ITO loathed him while the Roman Alliance merely shrugged with indifference. As 1960 dawned, the pitter-patter of mercenary feet alongside Italian boats became a regular sight on the shores of Java.
Extract from ‘The Screams of a Continent: Africa after WW2’ by Ayaan Ferguson
The Belgian Congo had a tortured history, where colonialism was at its absolute worst. Mutilation, torture and slavery were its legacy, and it did not have a powerful enough master to keep the wronged populace under its heel forever. By 1960, with Patton out of the White House, Belgium realized that the Congo was a lost cause, hoping to establish a leader who was at the very least not a Communist (it being assumed that no Post-Colonial African nation would align with the Fascists in any circumstance). Unfortunately, its high stores of minerals (especially Uranium) made it a target for every ambitious nation in the surrounding area. The largest party was the MNC (Mouvement National Congolais), led by Patrice Lumumba, but their remained fears among Western leaders that his movement was full of closet Communists, with Lumumba’s reluctance to distance himself from Marxism proving fatal. Nevertheless, they would win the first election of the independent state in a landslide. On Independence day on June 30th, after the King of Belgium made his own speech in Léopoldville at the commemoration of independence, Lumumba made an inflammatory speech denouncing Colonialism and Belgium in particular. The bad will the speech generated confirmed to many in the West that Lumumba was both a Red and a demagogue. Being independent, of course, did not mean an end to internal conflict and division, especially when White bureaucrats often stayed in their position (their Belgians hoped permanently) when many of the natives wanted visual, immediate change in their circumstances. The turmoil would begin in the army. Mutinies against White officers in the army began to spread across the region, which escalated to attacks on White property and civilians, creating a minor refugee crisis with thousands of Whites fleeing to Portuguese Angola if they could not easily get back to Belgium. Not to mention, the sudden loss of thousands of the most experienced civil administrators devastated the day-to-day running of the Congo. As Belgium had created an impression before independence of a peaceful region, the resulting local chaos horrified many in the world, and in the Roman Alliance particularly. They used it as further evidence of the destructiveness of decolonization, while fearing that it would inspire further rebellion in their own regions. To that end, in a phone call between Salazar and Mussolini on July 10th 1960, the pair agreed that for the sake of their colonial projects, the Congo had to be ‘made an example of’. They would have their excuse shortly.
On July 11th, Moïse Tshombe, whose name would soon become infamous among African nationalists as much as ‘Wallace’ had become in America, announced from his new capital of Élisabethville that the southern region of Congo, known as ‘Katanga’ would declare independence with his being the provisional ruler. Katanga was the centre of mining in the Congo, and there was some regional resentment that the rest of the Congo was using ‘Katanga’s wealth’ without sufficient respect being paid. Tshombe also argued Katangans were ethnically distinct, and that they were closer economically to the Rhodesia region than the Central African region. The major mining companies of the region, who feared that Lumumba would nationalize their property that was producing 60% of global cobalt production, backed Tshombe to the hilt. Almost immediately, the Roman Alliance (as well as the South Africans and Rhodesians) got in contact with Tshombe. While ITO was wary about anything that looked like re-imposing the old, hated colonial order, the Roman Alliance naturally feared no such thing. On July 13th, Ciano made the announcement in Rome that both Italy and Portugal officially recognized the existence of the Katangan state, with the rest of the Roman Alliance recognizing the country in the next few days. Even Israel recognized Tshombe after footage of his attending a local Bar Mitzvah was sent around the world. The footage was, according to one African historian, “Worth twenty thousand soldiers”, as the connecting element of Anti-Semitism was behind the three great evils of the 20th Century. In putting himself squarely on the side of local Jews, Tshombe convinced many Westerners that Lumumba was against them by default. However, the leader of the Congo did little to help himself. He condemned Katanga’s independence as an ‘Imperialist plot’ by ‘Belgian Capitalists’, the word choice being far to close to Communist-terminology to endear him to Western audiences. Since it was considered a Belgian issue, Britain and America did not know what to do, while De Gaulle privately encouraged the Fascists to ‘Get control of the situation’. Lumumba ordered his forces to move into Katanga, despite Italy and Portugal having promised to defend the region and with the rest of the Congo already descending into bedlam. On July 17th, Portugal crossed the Congo River and united the two strands of Portuguese Angola, cutting off the Congo Republic from the rest of the world. At the same time, Italian, Portuguese and South African and Rhodesian mercenary troops flooded into Katanga to uphold the new Republic. ITO could not respond because only Belgium was sworn to protect the Congo and it was very much in Belgium’s interest for the Roman Alliance to accomplish what it had set out to do. The Belgian government was in intense negotiations with Ciano to ensure that whatever became of the Congo, there would not be block annexations by the Portuguese or anyone else (specifically, as long as Belgians kept their money, it was fine). On July 20th, Belgium finally came out publicly in support of Katangan independence (though they had very much been privately in favor at the outset), thus neutering most pressure the Fascists found themselves under when the event began. On the next day, France also joined the operation, seeing the fate of the matter as already decided and wanting to ensure that the outcome was favorable to the Republic. This cooperation between the Fascists and France and Belgium certainly worried America and Britain, but both were willing to accept the situation as long as Lumumba was Communist or Communist-leaning. As then Vice-President Nixon would say in reference to Fascism that, “Black is bad, but better than Red”. Even still, formal recognition would have to wait until the end of the Congo Crisis. The Soviets, adhering to their new system of Silence, made only the most muted opposition to the Congo Crisis, certainly not thinking of providing material support.
With Katanga’s independence now seemingly secured, the collapse of the Republic of Congo continued unabated. Albert Kalonji, of the Baluba ethnic group in the Kasai region just north of Katanga, was inspired by the Fascist intervention and saw his own chance of getting an independent state-based around his ethnic group while being supported by local diamond companies. The independence of South Kasai was declared on July 23rd, and was likewise quickly recognized by the Roman Alliance and Israel. Belgium likewise sent material to defend the new regime, while demanding Lumumba step down. Not wanting to bend to colonialism in any way, Lumumba declared he would rather fight than make any submission to the Fascist powers. Finally, on the pretext of saving persecuted Whites within the country from total massacre, Belgium announced their intention of deposing Lumumba. Belgian paratroopers (with Italian assistance in terms of air support and mercenaries) fell around Léopoldville on July 28th, beginning an almighty firefight to save the clusters of Europeans that had taken shelter in various regional embassies and despose Lumumba. At the same time, Portuguese troops entered South Kasai to ensure the survival of the new regime, which quickly made a friend in Katanga. In a sop to international opinion, Katangan troops were used to invade the Republic of Congo, the sight of another ‘independent’ African nation doing the fighting further damaging the Congo’s reputation. Facing skilled soldiers with modern weapons and airpower while without an ally in the world, the Republic of Congo found itself hopelessly outmatched. By July 30th, Léopoldville was declared completely secured. Lumumba was blamed for the calamity by his peers and was dismissed by President Kasa-Vubu, who asked for a ceasefire with Western forces.
In the subsequent negotiations that were to fully take effect on January 1st 1961, both South Kasai and Katanga’s independence were guaranteed, with the remainder of the Congo entrusted to Kasa-Vubu to mop up the Lumumba revivalists. White citizens were compensated for the chaos that had enveloped them with most moving to Katanga, where Tshombe was eager to have a high-quality civil service. The Belgians encouraged this as a way to keep a strong ally in the region without having to worry about providing for thousands of refugees at home, as did the Italians and Portuguese. Not wanting further chaos in the region, Kasa-Vubu was guaranteed security against any threat of coups, ultimately leading to the arrest and execution of Colonel Joseph-Désiré Mobutu in 1961 after a failed attempt on power. Lumumba himself was handed over to the Katangans for imprisonment, only to have him killed ‘attempting escape’. All three countries would soon have elections, with all three prior rulers being confirmed in their status with varying degrees of voter fraud. But the Congo Republic under Kasa-Vubu, South Kasai under Kalonji and Katanga under Tshombe would soon become the regional, independent, Anti-Communist enforcers, all of whom took their turns playing on the loyalties of ITO and the Roman Alliance.
Katanga, roughly 13% White in 1961 owing to the exodus of local Caucasians to the region, would open itself to a flurry of foreign investment that brought significant European expertise while other recently independent African nations outright shunned or cast out Whites from any section of government. Tshombe’s visit to Rome in February 1961 was the first time an African leader had visited the Italian capital, and his promises of significant market entry to Western companies gained the attention of Mussolini as much as De Gaulle and Kennedy. This would give Katanga a leg-up compared to her regional rivals, but would earn her the unending scorn of much of Black Africa, which to this day sees Katangans as traitors. Regardless of the opinion of her peers, Katanga would soon see the highest economic growth rate of any nation in Africa, including the Settler Colonies. After having built a series of railroads through Angola, Portugal was more than able to synergize Angola’s growth with Katanga. The soon to be independent Rhodesia would also depend on Katanga to break through international sanctions, thus making the country an important ally of the Roman Alliance despite their never actually joining. Tshombe would be inspired by Israel’s policy of never declaring for one side in the Cool War to have foreign investment pour in from all sides, while adamantly declaring his opposition to Communism in the Cold. This would make Katanga the first of the four ‘African Lions’, the non-Settler States in Sub-Saharan Africa that achieved the most notable economic advances on the continent (the other three being Mauritius, Djibouti and Botswana). In conjunction with the ‘Asian Tigers’, the centre of global capital was shifting. While Katanga stayed (mostly) democratic, South Kasai slowly moved to authoritarianism. In 1961, Kalonji declared himself ‘Mulwope’ (roughly translated to ‘God-King’) of ‘The Luba Kingdom’, a Pre-Colonial Empire that existed in Africa that replaced the name of ‘South Kasai’. He went from being a corrupt President to a corrupt King, though there remained some form of legislature beneath him with the Roman Alliance and Belgium threatening to depose him the moment his eccentricities cost them their diamond companies their money.
For Kasa-Vubu however, things would not be so rosy. His government would soon find itself fighting insurgencies all across the country that his forces could not easily contain. But it was in the east where the true tempest derived. In Stanleyville, rebels loyal to the memory of Lumumba rose up against the Congolese state. This became known as the ‘Simba Rebellion’, and it had the stated intention of overthrowing Kasa-Vubu and anyone connected to the overthrow of Lumumba, as well as casting out all European influence. Pierre Mulele, who had been a minister in Lumumba’s government, led the Simbas though he faced a difficult task. Katanga and South Kasai, safe behind Roman Alliance guarantee, watched with indifference, their mercenary border guards being so cruel that few refugees dared try enter the Katangan state. The Simba movement also concluded they had a far better chance taking out Kasa-Vubu and getting away with it if they avoided the saber-toothed Katangan border. They received weapons and set up camp in British East Africa, the local governments offering more than enough protection and Britain offering more than enough protection to said governments. Thus, the Simbas could almost always find safe haven, but not even they could imagine the crazed events that would unfold in the Congo in the coming years.
In the meantime, France began her decolonization process, but the events of the Second Arabian War had so mortified the local population that they were terrified of small, scattered states being left to the wolves of Fascism. With the terror of the Fascism put into perspective, many of France’s domains wanted not only to stick together but perhaps to have some form of devolved status. In West Africa, despite talks of breaking the region of Mauritania, Senegal, French Sudan, French Guinea, the Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Dahomey and Niger into their own independent states, most members now concluded that any internal problems could lead to them getting picked off by the Fascists one by one. Not to mention, the French had terrifyingly demonstrated the lengths they would go to uphold the colonial system. To that end, an agreement was reached to form a federal state: The West African Federation. It would have full, internal autonomy, but would be considered a French Protectorate, whom France would swear to defend against any incursion by Roman Alliance states. Its capital was Dakar, and its leader was Hamani Diori, a Pro-France leader not above graft or ballot-box stuffing but seen as a safe pair of hands all in all. Attempts at uprisings in Dahomey and Guinea were crushed by French air power. Elsewhere in French Africa, Togo, Madagascar, the Central African Republic (with Chad having joined) and Congo-Brazzaville were given full internal autonomy and protectorate status. Gabon went one further, begging admittance into France itself. With some reluctance, De Gaulle would ultimately grant the request, becoming France’s second annexed outpost in Africa with a setup close to French Guiana. Britain was not above further annexation, having been somewhat concerned of the chaos that had enveloped the Americas since the Latin Spring. To that end, they held a referendum in British Honduras (Belize) in 1960, where 60% voted to become full members of the UK due to saber-rattling from Guatemala, egged on by local Fascists. By now, the UK had officially become ‘The United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the Overseas Territories” owing to their increasingly multicultural Parliament. Further independence was granted to Nigeria in 1960 and Sierra Leone in 1961. Yet soon a far more dangerous question arose: the question of the fate of East Africa, and how it could work when surrounded on all sides by the Fascists and chaos.
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The conflict in Ethiopia is about to heat up, with a new dimension coming to the African Conflict to make it all the more grey.
Africa's future will be ... a mixed bag.
So then.
The Congo gets a break up. I'm not an expert on the area so what's the verdict of the secessions vs the Kleptocracy never getting off the ground for the country coming out? For the secessionists it looks like Katanga is getting economic prosperity but at the price of being very capitalist dominated politically and a disproportionately influential white minority even with majority rule. And the other one is going full autocrat.
I take it the West African Federation is a good thing? After all it seems they will have more collective bargaining power vs France as the area develops and France has its decolonization woes.
For Britain wouldn't "Oversea Realms" sound better? Still, I hope this works out well for Belize. I wonder if they will get flack from neighbors for "embracing colonialism".
I see what was meant about Fascisms' peak. They have been swept from the Caribbean, though at least in Cuba it was a deal with the Devil vs Devil with the mafia getting such free reign in exchange for politial liberty and economic growth. Interesting fate for the Castros. I am assuming Raul had a military career, I wonder what circumstances will lead to him running for and winning the presidency in the 90s. I assume Ramon Castro lived out his life running the family business?
Well Trujillo is gone, good. What happened to Balaguer?
Nicaragua I am guessing will be a money pit for the RA.
But Argentina and Venzeluela shows the Fascists are not going down so readily. And they even gained a new member in Paraguay.
The Congo gets a break up. I'm not an expert on the area so what's the verdict of the secessions vs the Kleptocracy never getting off the ground for the country coming out? For the secessionists it looks like Katanga is getting economic prosperity but at the price of being very capitalist dominated politically and a disproportionately influential white minority even with majority rule. And the other one is going full autocrat.
I take it the West African Federation is a good thing? After all it seems they will have more collective bargaining power vs France as the area develops and France has its decolonization woes.
For Britain wouldn't "Oversea Realms" sound better? Still, I hope this works out well for Belize. I wonder if they will get flack from neighbors for "embracing colonialism".
I see what was meant about Fascisms' peak. They have been swept from the Caribbean, though at least in Cuba it was a deal with the Devil vs Devil with the mafia getting such free reign in exchange for politial liberty and economic growth. Interesting fate for the Castros. I am assuming Raul had a military career, I wonder what circumstances will lead to him running for and winning the presidency in the 90s. I assume Ramon Castro lived out his life running the family business?
Well Trujillo is gone, good. What happened to Balaguer?
Nicaragua I am guessing will be a money pit for the RA.
But Argentina and Venzeluela shows the Fascists are not going down so readily. And they even gained a new member in Paraguay.
Not one but Several references to Italian mercenaries that is very interesting. Makes sense especially with all the Italian veterans for the past several wars I hope to here more about the various Condottieri and soldiers of fortune. I'm always a sucker for those kind of stories.