A Waterloo of Law and Order - Part 2
London - 12 April 1848, Evening
"It doesn't mean that we can be confident that the Germanies are stable, though. The Grand Duchy of Baden may become a significant concern on the map of Germany, small as it is. In September last year, the radicals organized a political rally in a small town named Offenburg: ostensibly, it was a campaign rally for a by-election to the Lower Chamber. It shouldn't have been worthy of notice, but Offenburg appears to be a node of the western Germany railways, and instead of the few scores of people that such a rally would have attracted, over a thousand radicals arrived in Offenburg, not just from Baden but also from Frankfurt, Hesse, and the Prussian Rhineland. For reasons I find very hard to fathom, the government of Baden had the brilliant idea of dispersing the rally, even if by all account it was quite a peaceful demonstration: a lot of speeches, a list of demands, the signing of petitions. If I had to guess, I'd say that Metternich is the true culprit for what happened: since the rally was notified in advance to the authorities, some petty bureaucrat in Frankfurt must have decided that the rally contravened the Carlsbad Dictates, and put on notice his counterpart in Baden. They didn't send constables to keep an eye on the rally and disperse it if it was going to become too bumptious: they sent two hundred dragoons, probably under the command of some aristocratic blockhead, and things went from ugly to worse. There was a score of casualties, three scores of arrests, but that was not the worst." Lord Palmerston stopped for a moment, to sip from his glass of sherry, then went on: "There were a number of journalists covering the event, and by next day the news of the Offenburg Night-of-Blood (1) was reported all over Western Germany, including the list of demands presented by the radicals and all the gory details of the affray. Overnight, a folk hero was born: a Friedrich Heckler, who was portrayed killed in cold blood, defending women and children.
The government of Baden didn't even have the good sense to let things go: the arrested were put on trial, and suddenly there was a cause célèbre, with all the proceeds reported on a daily basis. There was a lively parliamentary debate in the Lower House of Baden, with motions and interrogations which failed to carry a majority, but had the effect of pushing liberals and radicals into closer cooperation. When the news of the French revolution reached Karlsruhe, there were rallies and riots, and on 4 March the Lower House approved almost unanimously the Charter of Offenburg, as it came to be known. The old government was replaced by a new one, a coalition of democrats and liberals, a National Guard was formed, and armed. Even the army had to swear fealty to the Constitution and Parliament. It goes without saying that the events in Karlsruhe influenced all its neighbors: Hesse and Wurttemberg have already granted a National Guard, and even Bavaria, where king Maximilian was only recently crowned after the Estates forced his father to abdicate for being a spendthrift and also for his scandalous relationship with a dancer (2), is seriously considering it.
Similar events happened in Saxony too, although without violence. A petition based on the Charter of Offenburg was submitted, there were rallies in Dresden, and in the end, the government resigned, and the Charter was approved. Now there is a liberal government there too, a National Guard has been created and the army has sworn an oath on the constitution.
The situation is potentially very unstable, because a preliminary parliament has self-installed itself in Frankfurt, with a significant radical presence, and German political expatriates in France and Switzerland have crossed the border of Baden. The turn of events in Baden has kept everything on best behavior, for now at least, but let us not become complacent."
"It looks to me that the future French behavior will play a critical role: M. Lamartine has played very nicely for now, but there are going to be elections in France and things might take a turn for the worse, in one way or another." Lord John Russell allowed himself a minimal smile: "Maybe the next turn of the wheel will see revolution exported from the Germanies into France: wouldn't it be a new and fresh thing?"
"I fail to share your mirth" Palmerston's tone was astringent: "Western Germany will be even more influenced by the turn of events in Prussia and in Austria. The latter, in particular, keeps me awake at night. However, before dealing with Austria and Italy, let me finish with the other pieces on the board.
There have been rallies and riots in both Sweden and Denmark: the unrest in Stockholm has been put down with a mailed fist, there have been casualties and arrests, but the government appears to be in full control now; the situation in Copenhagen is better and worse at the same time. Frederik VII (2) was crowned on 20 January last and started his reign with the announcement of Constitutional reform. I don't want to bore you, the issue is long and complex, so I will simplify: the king of Denmark is also duke of Schleswig and Holstein, and before the proposed reform each of these three portions was entitled to its own laws and Estates. The king's proposal featured a Constitution which would have covered all the parts of the kingdom: Denmark proper and the two Duchies jointly would be entitled to equal representation in Parliament. This proposal displeased everyone: the population of Denmark proper is much higher than the population of the Duchies, and resented the bigger weight the latter would have in Parliament, while the population of the Duchies, in particular Holstein, simply did not want to change the previous arrangement which granted them many devolved powers. To further complicate the issue, the population of Schleswig is majority Dane, with a significant German minority, while the population of Holstein is almost completely German, and the Duchy is a member of the German Confederation. The outcome was a major rally in Copenhagen on the 20th of March, which forced the hand of the king. A more liberal constitution was demanded, a new government, and the unification of Schleswig with Holstein, with the former also joining the German Confederation. This was accepted by the king, with the only exception of the status of Schleswig, which would remain an integral part of Denmark, although with some devolved powers, and with the same Constitution. Holstein would have their own constitution and would continue their membership in the German Confederation.
These reforms satisfied the Danes, and might even be satisfactory for the Germans: unfortunately, by the time this proposal was delivered to the Duchies, Holstein was already in armed insurrection. Here we stand for now: I have no particular interest in this row, except that a weakening of Denmark might whet Prussian appetites, and Great Britain cannot tolerate the Baltic straits to be under the control of Prussia.
Of course, an independent Denmark is also in the interest of Russia, and I plan to involve them in the dispute if necessary.
Now, finally, Russia: after some sabre rattling when the news of the French revolution reached St. Petersburg, the Czar has decided to move his army to the border with the Germanies. It's not there waiting to invade, but rather as a cordon sanitaire to prevent revolutionary fevers to infect Holy Mother Russia, and to keep a close eye on the activity of Poles, both in Poland proper and in the Duchy of Poznan. All Russians abroad have been ordered to return, which is quite a stupid move if the Czar wants to avoid news of the revolutions to become known in Russia, and every foreigner, merchants, and diplomats include, who wants to enter Russia need to apply for a special permit. The only activity of Russian troops outside the borders has been in the Danubian Principalities, in particular in Moldova, where they have quashed without difficulty a few rallies in favor of constitutional developments.
Thank God for small mercies: at least we don't have to worry about Russian armies rampaging in Central Europe.
Now let's adjourn to the dining room, before delving into the two most intriguing and potentially problematic areas: Austria and the Italian States."
Footnotes
The Offenburger Blutnacht is where the political history of Germany diverges from OTL. The harshness of the repression did much to shatter the complacency of the Western German liberals. It didn't happen in Baden, the German state with quite a decent constitution, by happenstance: the most astute political observer that is playing a center-stage role in this TL, the Count of Cavour, commented that granting a Constitution is not the end of a political process, but rather the start of it, and its effect cannot be truly understood until things start to change in a macroscopic way. The press coverage of the massacre gave unexpected publicity to the Offenburg Charter, a German folk hero was born (and not the usual caricature of a revolutionary or an anarchist: for good or for bad, Friedrich Heckler became overnight a byword for a stout German burgher who stands firm in defense of women and children. It's doubtful that he had time for any significant last word, but all the reporters wrote that in his last defiance he spoke the same words that Luther spoke at the Diet of Worms: "Hier ich stehe. Ich kann nicht anders", "I stand here. I cannot do otherwise", and even nowadays these words remain an integral part of his legend). The divergence started slowly, first the horror for the massacre, then the sympathy for the Demands of the People, followed by a tentative rapprochement between liberals and radicals, and finally the integral adoption of the Charter by the Lower Chamber of Baden. By the end of March, the divergence had become quite evident, and the alliance of convenience between liberals and democrats had become very hard to stop, unless by force of arms. IOTL, the forces of reaction proved to be willing and capable to squash the popular insurrections, but this started to happen only in the second half of 1848. ITTL, the princes should oppose in arms the insurrections in April, and they are not in a position to do it.
The figure of Maximilian, king of Bavaria, is ambiguous: let's say that he was a follower, rather than a leader, and lacked a strong political ideology. Just crowned, after the forced abdication of his father, and without a clear lead, it is quite likely he would bow to the prevailing liberal wave.
Frederik of Denmark is another king who just recently got the crown. It is quite possible that his constitutional plans were born more from a desire to shed the responsibilities of an autocrat than from a true belief in a constitutional setting. His handling of the constitutional crisis was less than inspired, and at the same time, the insurrection of Holstein was motivated by reactionary and particularistic reasons rather than by the liberal ideals of 1848 or even by pan-Germanism. Being the result of two equally faulty approaches, the crisis of Schleswig-Holstein proved difficult to solve through a reasonable compromise.
