A Waterloo of Law and Order - Part 1
London - 12 April 1848, Afternoon
Lord Russell (1) and Lord Palmerston (2) were meeting at the London residence of the latter, at 4, Carlton Gardens. The scare of the great Chartist meeting held on 10 April at Kennington Common was finally over. There had been no tumult or riot: a vast crowd (3) had peacefully listened to rousing speeches, but the threatened march on Parliament had not happened (4). A small Chartist delegation had brought to Parliament a petition, signed by close to two million people, but the MPs had not budged and that was all (5).
Palmerston was positively beaming: "A toast, Lord Russell: to the 10th of April, a date which will stand in British history side by side with the 18th of June. It was truly a Waterloo of law and order, as well a confirmation that the British people will not succumb to the revolutionary fever which has infected all of Europe."
The Prime Minister, thoughtfully sipping his brandy, was less enthusiastic: "We have just overcome the first hurdle, and I grant you that everything went very well. Now we have to consider what we can possibly do to bring back stability to the continent. The balance of power in Europe has been significantly altered in less than two months, if not shattered for good, and I fear its restoration is unlikely."
"You may be right: the current events in Austria and Italy are the most significant, in my opinion. I will however start with France, which is experiencing its third revolution in 50 years. This said, I am cautiously optimist: the Provisional Government includes 7 moderates and only 2 Democrats; Lamartine is bending backward to let the European diplomacy know that the new France does not intend to repeat the shenanigans of the First Republic, even if the Provisional Government is not strong enough to clamp down drastically on Leftist agitators or to forcibly pre-empt foreign exiles from organizing expeditions to spread the revolutionary gospel in the Germanies, in Belgium, and in Poland. Truth to be said, they even failed to pre-empt a farcical invasion of Savoy by leftists aiming to secure the "natural borders of France": luckily the invaders were chased out by Savoyard farmers before they could create too much havoc. It was an egg on the face for the Provisional Government, who had to apologize to the king of Sardinia, but no disaster. Obviously, we have to wait for the elections called in 2 weeks time from now, but the Provisional Government has approved a universal franchise, which means that the elections will be ultimately decided by the conservative farmers of the countryside, who are already angered by the increase of taxation to pay for the relief measures against unemployment in the main cities. I predict the Left will be sorely disappointed by the electoral results, and there will be a large majority in the Assembly in favor of law and order since the moderates will be able to rely on the Orleanists to tame the Left." (6)
"I don't disagree with your appraisal, Palmerston, but keep our ambassador in Paris under short reins: I don't like Normanby's habit to make his own policy rather than follow government instructions (7)."
"Normanby is an old warhorse who must be put to pasture, and better sooner than later: he has to stay in place during the current crisis, though, given his good relations with Lamartine. France has to stay stable, and must not appear to be taking aggressive on its eastern border. In this respect, you will be relieved by what's happening in Belgium: there has been some tension there, but M. Charles Rogier, the Prime Minister, has been moving very quickly, anticipating the unrest and making some concession since when he formed a Liberal government in last July. There have been two attempts of Belgian expatriates to invade from France, but they were easily stopped (8). I believe that the high watermark of danger is over, and Belgium will stay stable, and very close to us, as guarantors of their independence. M. Rogier may become a good influence on the Netherlands too: I am informed that king William is thawing to liberal concessions, and this should help to keep stability there, and to improve the relations with Belgium (9).
Hanover is also pretty stable, there were a few disorders at the news of the revolution in France, but they were put down easily. I think that king Ernest Augustus may even be popular in Hanover, and he is even called "Father of the Country" (10), but the constitutional crisis of 1837 has left a shadow on his reign."
"Everyone who knew the Duke of Cumberland here was certainly relieved by his removal to Hanover. I personally toasted the health of Princess Royal (11) when she was born, and most of my glee was because there was another life between Ernest Augustus and the British throne ." quipped Lord Russell "But do go on, please".
"I suppose that the next item on the agenda is Prussia. You certainly know of the insurrection in Berlin on 24 March, the bloodshed trying to suppress it and the sudden turn around of the king, who put a stop to the repression, pulled the troops from Berlin and left himself with the Court for his palace of Sans Souci. As of now, Berlin is still in the hands of the insurgents, a Convention has been installed to write a constitution for Prussia, and no attempt has been made to take the city back,. There is also an insurrection in the Grand Duchy of Posen, where the Poles are up in arms, demanding self-rule: also, in this case, the king of Prussia has not taken any action yet, just sending one of his generals to negotiate with the insurgents. I have read many newspaper articles claiming that the Prussian throne is tottering, but I have also read the reports of our ambassador in Berlin, and I have full confidence in lord Westmoreland: after his minor, and in my view justified, faux pas in Naples in 1820 (12), his record has been impeccable. As Westmoreland reads the situation, the king of Prussia is in full control of the army and is biding his time, which is probably his best option at the time being; by avoiding immediate confrontation, he avoids the political temperature to reach a boiling point. Berlin is apparently under the control of the insurgents, but the city is ordered and not lawless, and anyway, Berlin has not the importance that Paris has for France or London for us. More importantly, the situation is stable also in the Rhein provinces: most of the agitators are either in Berlin or in Frankfurt, and cannot foment an insurrection at home, and anyway, the fear of a French invasion is a powerful dissuasion. Sooner or later the king will make his move: I predict that it will be to quell the Polish insurrection in Posen, which is not going to be difficult and more importantly will gain the sympathy of the German nationalists."
“Prussia is not a country with an army, but an army with a country. (13)” Lord Russell agreed.
Footnotes
London - 12 April 1848, Afternoon
Lord Russell (1) and Lord Palmerston (2) were meeting at the London residence of the latter, at 4, Carlton Gardens. The scare of the great Chartist meeting held on 10 April at Kennington Common was finally over. There had been no tumult or riot: a vast crowd (3) had peacefully listened to rousing speeches, but the threatened march on Parliament had not happened (4). A small Chartist delegation had brought to Parliament a petition, signed by close to two million people, but the MPs had not budged and that was all (5).
Palmerston was positively beaming: "A toast, Lord Russell: to the 10th of April, a date which will stand in British history side by side with the 18th of June. It was truly a Waterloo of law and order, as well a confirmation that the British people will not succumb to the revolutionary fever which has infected all of Europe."
The Prime Minister, thoughtfully sipping his brandy, was less enthusiastic: "We have just overcome the first hurdle, and I grant you that everything went very well. Now we have to consider what we can possibly do to bring back stability to the continent. The balance of power in Europe has been significantly altered in less than two months, if not shattered for good, and I fear its restoration is unlikely."
"You may be right: the current events in Austria and Italy are the most significant, in my opinion. I will however start with France, which is experiencing its third revolution in 50 years. This said, I am cautiously optimist: the Provisional Government includes 7 moderates and only 2 Democrats; Lamartine is bending backward to let the European diplomacy know that the new France does not intend to repeat the shenanigans of the First Republic, even if the Provisional Government is not strong enough to clamp down drastically on Leftist agitators or to forcibly pre-empt foreign exiles from organizing expeditions to spread the revolutionary gospel in the Germanies, in Belgium, and in Poland. Truth to be said, they even failed to pre-empt a farcical invasion of Savoy by leftists aiming to secure the "natural borders of France": luckily the invaders were chased out by Savoyard farmers before they could create too much havoc. It was an egg on the face for the Provisional Government, who had to apologize to the king of Sardinia, but no disaster. Obviously, we have to wait for the elections called in 2 weeks time from now, but the Provisional Government has approved a universal franchise, which means that the elections will be ultimately decided by the conservative farmers of the countryside, who are already angered by the increase of taxation to pay for the relief measures against unemployment in the main cities. I predict the Left will be sorely disappointed by the electoral results, and there will be a large majority in the Assembly in favor of law and order since the moderates will be able to rely on the Orleanists to tame the Left." (6)
"I don't disagree with your appraisal, Palmerston, but keep our ambassador in Paris under short reins: I don't like Normanby's habit to make his own policy rather than follow government instructions (7)."
"Normanby is an old warhorse who must be put to pasture, and better sooner than later: he has to stay in place during the current crisis, though, given his good relations with Lamartine. France has to stay stable, and must not appear to be taking aggressive on its eastern border. In this respect, you will be relieved by what's happening in Belgium: there has been some tension there, but M. Charles Rogier, the Prime Minister, has been moving very quickly, anticipating the unrest and making some concession since when he formed a Liberal government in last July. There have been two attempts of Belgian expatriates to invade from France, but they were easily stopped (8). I believe that the high watermark of danger is over, and Belgium will stay stable, and very close to us, as guarantors of their independence. M. Rogier may become a good influence on the Netherlands too: I am informed that king William is thawing to liberal concessions, and this should help to keep stability there, and to improve the relations with Belgium (9).
Hanover is also pretty stable, there were a few disorders at the news of the revolution in France, but they were put down easily. I think that king Ernest Augustus may even be popular in Hanover, and he is even called "Father of the Country" (10), but the constitutional crisis of 1837 has left a shadow on his reign."
"Everyone who knew the Duke of Cumberland here was certainly relieved by his removal to Hanover. I personally toasted the health of Princess Royal (11) when she was born, and most of my glee was because there was another life between Ernest Augustus and the British throne ." quipped Lord Russell "But do go on, please".
"I suppose that the next item on the agenda is Prussia. You certainly know of the insurrection in Berlin on 24 March, the bloodshed trying to suppress it and the sudden turn around of the king, who put a stop to the repression, pulled the troops from Berlin and left himself with the Court for his palace of Sans Souci. As of now, Berlin is still in the hands of the insurgents, a Convention has been installed to write a constitution for Prussia, and no attempt has been made to take the city back,. There is also an insurrection in the Grand Duchy of Posen, where the Poles are up in arms, demanding self-rule: also, in this case, the king of Prussia has not taken any action yet, just sending one of his generals to negotiate with the insurgents. I have read many newspaper articles claiming that the Prussian throne is tottering, but I have also read the reports of our ambassador in Berlin, and I have full confidence in lord Westmoreland: after his minor, and in my view justified, faux pas in Naples in 1820 (12), his record has been impeccable. As Westmoreland reads the situation, the king of Prussia is in full control of the army and is biding his time, which is probably his best option at the time being; by avoiding immediate confrontation, he avoids the political temperature to reach a boiling point. Berlin is apparently under the control of the insurgents, but the city is ordered and not lawless, and anyway, Berlin has not the importance that Paris has for France or London for us. More importantly, the situation is stable also in the Rhein provinces: most of the agitators are either in Berlin or in Frankfurt, and cannot foment an insurrection at home, and anyway, the fear of a French invasion is a powerful dissuasion. Sooner or later the king will make his move: I predict that it will be to quell the Polish insurrection in Posen, which is not going to be difficult and more importantly will gain the sympathy of the German nationalists."
“Prussia is not a country with an army, but an army with a country. (13)” Lord Russell agreed.
Footnotes
- Lord John Russell, third son of the duke of Bedford and British Prime Minister since 1846 (Whig Party)
- Henry John Temple, third Viscount Palmerston. Foreign Secretary in Lord Russell's Cabinet.
- The organizers claimed an attendance of 300, 000: more reasonable estimates are in the range of 30,000 to 50,000
- The protesters found themselves trapped in Kennington Commons, with the bridges across the Thames blocked by police (an impressive security had been put in place: besides the police, 15,000 special constables had been sworn - including Louis Napoleon - and 8,000 regulars were ready to intervene in case of need). After negotiation, the Chartists agreed that only a dozen of the would deliver their petition to Parliament
- The petition had close to two million signatures, but a significant portion of them was probably not legit.
- The events in France are historical
- Constantine Henry Phipps, 1st marquess of Normanby: a Whig politician, former colonial secretary and home secretary. He was sent to Paris as ambassador in 1846.
- In one case, the train carrying the insurgents stopped beyond the Belgian border, and they were immediately arrested; in the other, they crossed the border on foot but were confronted by two companies of the Belgian army at Risquons-Tout (an apt name) and easily defeated.
- The liberal politician Johan Rudolf Thorbecke played an important role, first as leader of the Constitutional Committee empaneled by king William II on 17 March, and later on as prime minister of a moderate liberal government.
- Ernest Augustus, duke of Cumberland, was the fourth son of George III of United Kingdom and Hanover. He became king of Hanover in 1837 (Hanover succession was governed by semi-Salic law, and Victoria could not inherit there). He started by abolishing the Hanoverian Constitution of 1833, which had been approved by his older brother William IV, under the pretext that his assent had not been asked (in 1833 he was already the heir to Hanover), but he also showed an interest in improving the economy of Hanover and was a great supporter of railway construction. In foreign policy, he was always anti-Prussian, fearing their expansionist policies (Hanover did not join the Zollverein until 1850 IOTL also for this reason).
- Victoria, eldest daughter of Queen Victoria, was born on 21 November 1840 and became the heir to the throne of the United Kingdom. Before her birth, Ernest Augustus was the heir to the British throne.
- John Fane, Earl of Westmoreland. A career diplomat, appointed as minister plenipotentiary to Prussia in 1841. At the beginning of his career he was attaché' at Naples, and was accused by Austria of sympathies for the constitutional insurgents.
- This quotation is usually attributed to Friedrich von Schrotte, Prussian Minister in the second half of 18th century.
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