a forum for international disputes like a Mega Hague is possible however.
Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
Just because Kaliningrad is OTL does not make it not cursed.
I think Posen, Memel and plebiscite regions in East Prussia and Silesia should be enough territorial gains for Russia with maybe the Corridor (other than Danzig) as well.
As for Austria since they are on the way to peacing out I think Status Quo ante Bellum works for the borders with reparations to Russia.
I think Posen, Memel and plebiscite regions in East Prussia and Silesia should be enough territorial gains for Russia with maybe the Corridor (other than Danzig) as well.
As for Austria since they are on the way to peacing out I think Status Quo ante Bellum works for the borders with reparations to Russia.
Hmm an insistence on balrnced budgets is what turned the 1929 stock market crash from a setback to a disaster and cutting wages actually worsens this by both reducing demand and crucially confidence. That sort of platform can't work however a big war with the consequent spending boost can change that. It will be disaterous though if the credit for recovery is given to old fashioned orthodoxies like Hughes which should have been long discredited rather than the expansionary boost of a war
I'm no specialist on Asia or Africa, but I'd proceed with three broad principles in mind.
1. Throughout much of the global south, disenfranchised intellectuals and radicals have often turned to either Islamism or Marxist-Leninism. In this scenario, there will be no Comintern as even if Italy goes leftist, any hint of exporting the revolution is going to be clamped down on quickly by Vienna and Paris. Italy is not Russia- foreign intervention is much easier. Your Bulgarian scenario is not far of the mark. But also of note is that the Soviet Union showed that there was a path to modernity even for a semi-industrialised, ethnically heterogenous empire like Russia. Its model of development was thus very attractive to colonial nationalists.
Here, the Ottoman revival- and the continued existence of the Caliphate- is going to provide a whole new intellectual model. I would expect that plenty of radicalised young thinkers from across the Islamic world will find much to inspire them. It would not surprise me to find Tan Malaka is serving in the Ottoman Army in this timeline, perhaps reading all the Socialist Party literature he can get his hands on.
2. The Ottoman position of being neither European nor Asian, neither white nor non-white, is going to have interesting effects as well. Their success is a challenge not just to white supremacy but also to the popular idea of the time that ethnic homogeneity and racial purity was a marker of strong states- a position strongly held, of course, by many colonial nationalists (not all of them, but they certainly played a key role in, for example, Japan.)
They will represent a problem that has to be dealt with by intellectual movements of all stripes- they challenge the left's models of political development, for example.
It's possible that you see people like W. E. B. DuBois coming to write about the Ottoman revival and how that works as a model for African Americans.
3. That being said, do not overplay the desire of the actual Ottoman governments to encourage decolonisation. Some members of the Ottoman parliament will probably be interested in ideas like Pan-Turanism or even broader Pan-Asianism. But the Ottomans, like Japan, were both a colonised and a colonial power. Your comment that France and the Ottomans won't get along when decolonisation happens is possible, but it's also possible that the Ottomans actually try to minimise the help their citizens are giving to anti-colonial movements- because the Ottoman government does not have perfect information about its own subjects, and has no way of knowing for sure that just because it seems to have settled the problems of nascent Arab/Assyrian/Balkan nationalisms that they'll stay settled if there's another great flowering of national sentiments.
Kaliningrad is russian the rest is polish or Lithuanian. Do you mean all of Sileasia or just the polish inahabited parts?
Chapter 29: Peace?
Chapter 29: Peace?
***
“On October 27, Archduke Karl of Austria-Este came into contact with his brother in law in Belgium, on orders from Emperor Franz II. Karl asked his brother in law to meet him in Switzerland to discuss peace talks in private regarding the wider European war. Prince Sixtus of Bourbon-Parma was at first reluctant to leave his military position and duties at the Western Front, however the urgency with which Karl had called for him and the seriousness of his proposal was enough to convince the young prince, who wanted peace like any sane man to take up the offer. On November 25, the Brothers (in laws) met each other in Zurich, Switzerland in a private hotel room away from public eyes.
Prince Sixtus of Bourbon-Parma.
There, Prince Sixtus was given a set of letters written personally by Franz II with orders to meet Prime Minister Rene Viviani of France, and if possible to time the meeting with the upcoming meeting between Prime Minister McKenna an Viviani. Meeting both at the same time, would allow negotiations to go on at same pacing between Austria, France and the United Kingdom. Prince Sixtus accepted the task and was told by Karl that Franz II was willing to any peace condition with economic reparations to the Entente, alongside small border concessions to the Russians as well as demilitarization of Galicia-Volhynia if peace was achieved. Karl himself is quoted to have said ‘Peace……Peace at any price other than destruction’.
Meanwhile back in Vienna, the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister, Stephan Burian von Rajecz, caught wind that something was going on without the proper permission of the civilian government as Austrian spies, who knew nothing about Archduke Karl’s movements reported that the Archduke had met his brother-in-law in Switzerland. A Brother-In-Law known to be an officer in the Belgian Army. Rajecz decided to find out for himself what was going on and asked for an appointment with their new Emperor. Franz II granted this appointment believing it to be a mere routine explanation of the diplomatic situation of the empire. However much to his surprise, Franz II was asked about the meeting. Rajecz’s rationalization was that Karl wouldn’t do anything as rash as the meeting going on in Switzerland without the support of the Emperor. Franz II threatened Rajecz’s family to swear him into secrecy and told him about the plot for peace. Rajecz was actually in favor of the ongoing plot to get peace for the empire. He had always been in favor of parity between the German Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and had always been angered by the neo-master to vassal relationship that existed between Berlin and Vienna economically, even though the empire stood on its own firm feet militarily. Rajecz had previously been an ardent supporter of the opinion that Germany and Austria-Hungary were equal in all military, economic and political activism, which had only antagonized the man with his German counterparts.
Stephan Burian von Rajecz.
Rajecz tacitly supported the plan to gain peace and contacted Prince Sixtus through telegraph before the Prince left Switzerland asking him to wait for a new letter, written personally by him. After three days, the letter arrived and on November 29, Prince Sixtus left Switzerland, intent on bringing peace between the vast empires that were fighting with one another during the Great War.
Sixtus knew that the meeting between McKenna and Viviani was to be held on December 10, and asked for an appointment during that time period. As an aristocrat from a French dynasty, his request couldn’t be overlooked and Viviani sent Foreign Minister Doumergue to meet with Sixtus in Lyon on December 3, when Sixtus revealed that he held a message from the Austrian government. During the meeting in Lyon, Sixtus was frustrated by the fact that the French government was not actually taking his need for an appointment seriously and he decided to slip up purposefully in front of Doumergue. Doumergue was at first intrigued by the small hints that Sixtus was giving, before Sixtus revealed that he had a full blown peace deal in his hands, which if the Entente accepted would see Austria-Hungary out of the war. Doumergue was undoubtedly taken by surprise by this admission, however he agreed to allow Sixtus into the meeting between McKenna and Viviani.
Doumergue and Sixtus arrived on Paris on the 8th of December. Sixtus retired into one of his ancestral homes, whilst Doumergue went to the government and told Viviani that the Austrians were scheming for a full peace. It would be best to atleast hear the proposal out, Doumergue told Viviani. Viviani finally agreed to do hear the prince and the Austrian offer out. A formal invitation was sent to Prince Sixtus on the 9th for the meeting on the 10th.
On the 10th, Prince Sixtus met with Prime Minister Viviani and the entire French cabinet, alongside Prime Minister McKenna of Great Britain and Ambassador Alexander Izvolsky, who was the Ambassador of Russia to France.
Rene Viviani.
There, Sixtus revealed the entirety of the concessions prepared by Franz II and Foreign Minister Rajecz as well as Archduke Karl. In it, the men all agreed that a general separate peace between the Entente and the Empire of Austria-Hungary was to be pursued. Franz II was willing to pay around 8 billion pounds in reparations to be divided between the powers of Russia, France and the United Kingdom. The Empire was also willing to give up parts of Galicia-Lodomeria to the Empire of Russia, though not all of it and neither the majority of it. Finally, something that was a very reluctant move on part of the naval-lover Franz II, the Empire offered to halve its fleet for the next one and a half decades, with one third of the fleet being given to France and the UK as reparations.
It was a comprehensive deal. The Austrians had already lost around 320,000 men dead and around 370,000 casualties for a grand total of around 690,000 casualties during the entire war. And they wanted out. The British and French recognized that the loss of the Austrian navy for the Central Powers would also allow the allies to establish total naval hegemony over the Mediterranean. And the territorial concession and monetary reparations that Austria offered intrigued Izvolsky as well. Izvolsky, acting with the autonomy given to him as ambassador, demanded more land in Galicia-Lodomeria, however Sixtus who was still acting as intermediary told him that this was the initial demand, and that he had no right to negotiate other terms. He then asked permission from Viviani to allow Archduke Karl to enter French soil, to act as the official diplomat from Vienna. It was a daring move on part of Franz II, as he was going to let his official heir set foot on (nominal) enemy soil. Sixtus told the French government the only condition was that Karl was kept out of the public eye, and that proper security be given to him, along with two trusted bodyguards to be allowed with him.
Archduke Karl of Austria, the future Karl I of the Empire.
Viviani and the French cabinet debated the issue for the rest of the day before Doumergue managed to tip the scales. The cabinet agreed to allow Karl to enter French soil as long as he brought along papers identifying him as Karl of the Papal States [1], instead of Karl of Austria. As all members of the Habsburg dynasty were close to the Papacy, Karl did have papers and partial citizenship from the Papacy [2], and the conditions of both sides were accepted. On December 29, the Heir of the Austro-Hungarian Empire reached Paris, where he met with the British, French and Russian delegations to begin negotiations.
There, the main point of contention was the scale of the reparations and the border changes in the east. Karl agreed to increase the monetary reparations to a total of 9.6 billion pounds, however refused to go above that, as it would not be financial apt for the dual monarchy to cede too much monetary resources. He agreed readily to the allied demand for half of the Austrian navy to be demobilized as well. It was Galicia-Lodomeria that was the sticking point. The Russians wanted it all. Archduke Karl had to subtly remind the Russians that Austria still occupied Congress Poland and as such the Russian demands were mildly, unreasonable. The French, and more importantly the British, who were desperate for peace, were in agreement to this notion. However still, the French and British maintained the position that some kind of territorial concession would have to be given to ensure that the Russian nationalistic spectrum remained quiet after a final peace could be hammered out.
Retiring for the New Year, Karl contacted Vienna again, and told Franz II and Rajecz about the Russian demand for Galicia-Lodomeria. Franz II and Rajecz debated with one another over the Russian demand for Galicia Lodomeria and in the end agreed to two things. The Austro-Hungarian Empire would be willing to cede Ukrainian Galicia to Russia, and demilitarize the Austrian border with Russia for a decade, but Polish Galicia would be retained by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. This was a wily move. The Ukrainians of Galicia, alongside the Romanians were the only real separatist threats of the Empire, despite the multi-ethnic setup of the empire. And such losing one separatist threat for a land that wasn’t worth much economically either, wasn’t a hard thing to give up for the Austrian Emperor.
On January 3, negotiations restarted and Karl relayed the new position of the Austrian government regarding Galicia. The Russians, took it. They would have preferred to gain all of Galicia Lodomeria, however on January 1, the Germans managed to drive a Russian offensive in Eastern Prussia out of the region and defeated the Russians at the Battle of the Vistula, which made the Russian position in the Baltic all the more precarious than before.
The area east of the redline were to be ceded to Russia. The only real loss was the city of Lviv/Lwow.
On January 5, with the final concessions made, the Franz II and Rajecz told the Austrian and Hungarian civil governments about the secret negotiations. Many were not amused and worried about the German response. However the vast majority of the governments were thankful about the end of the war, and agreed to the negotiations wholeheartedly. Karl signed the Armistice of Lyon on January 11, and ended the war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Entente.
The Italians and Germans were horrified when news of the armistice and negotiations was leaked into the public. Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany telephoned Vienna and personally threatened Franz II with war. However Franz II who knew that Germany could and would not afford a new enemy, rebuffed the Kaiser’s threats and told him politely and I quote ‘This is a war you started, and Austria will not die for German mistakes.’
The quote has been used as a defining quote and phrase in Austrian nationalism that distinguishes the Austrian ethnicity away from the Germans. The Germans could do nothing than watch as the Austro-Hungarian lines in Poland ground to a halt as the Austrians refused to move, as a part of the Armistice.
On February 18, the Treaty of Paris was signed between the Empire of Austria-Hungary, Third French Republic, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, Kingdom of Spain, the Empire of China, the Russian Empire and the Japanese Empire. The terms of the treaty were straightforward and simple:-
***
“One of the major platforms of the Committee of Union and Progress during the 1914 Ottoman General Elections had been the lack of a proper educational focus on part of former Grand Vizier Ali Kemal. However the Balkan War, and the outbreak of the Great War had hindered the progress of the CUP in regards to education as the country transformed into a true war economy, and had no real chance of focusing on the economy as a result. That was no longer true. After a year of recovery, the CUP and socialist led government was now focusing their polices on education as well.
The reforms of Mahmud II and Abdulmejid I had laid the foundations for schooling the empire during the 30s and 40s, however the continued curriculum of the 1860s was no longer applicable in 1917. Therefore, the Ottoman government had started to compile educational statistics since early 1916 and were beginning to form a new curriculum throughout the year using the aid of scholars, both foreign and indigenous.
On January 8, 1917, the Educational Reform and Curriculum Act of 1917 was presented to the Ottoman Chamber of Deputies, and consisted of the following points:-
On January 20, on the insistence of the Ministry of Education, the Benghazi University was established as the first tertiary education provider in Ottoman Libya. Construction began the next week. The University of Benghazi would later have 3 schools – the School of Management, the School of Engineering and the School of Science, as a part of its education departments.
Jeddah University of the Fine Arts today.
On February 25, as a part of the new educational drive of the empire, the Empire also established the Jeddah University of the Fine Arts. Most of the romantic and art talents of the Empire went to Hejaz to gain religious romanticism in their efforts in the arts, and as such the location of situation a Fine Arts University in Hejaz was a good one, as the receptionists and managers of the new university later complained to the Education ministry that there was just too many applicants.
Coeducation of girls and boys in schools was also legalized by an amendment to the earlier act in February 28. Centuries of sexual segregation had denied girls equal education as with boys. However the rise of the Ottoman Women’s movement and the rising social consciousness of the empire made this situation untenable and impossible. The Minister of Education on March 2, 1917 declared that coeducation was legal throughout the empire. However it was to place in a slow and ordered format, by introducing coeducation in Primary Schools in 1917, introducing it in secondary schools in 1919, and introducing it in tertiary schools by 1920. This was accepted by the representatives of the Ottoman Women’s Association.” A History of Education in the Ottoman Empire.
***
“The Ottomans, despite their massive economic reforms during the Second Constitutional Era, still had one intermittent problem. That of land reform. Aghas were tribal chieftains in the empire who still held a good plurality of all the cultivable land in the Ottoman Empire, and made agriculture a mixed bag of success and failure within the empire. It didn’t help that in places like Palestine and Transjordan, many believed that the land belong to God and Sultan only, and that families only had the right to maintain the land but the notion of private property title was completely alien. Despite efforts by the Ottoman governments from 1858 to destroy this notion, it still persisted.
Farmers in the Ottoman Empire.
And massive land reform was needed for the empire, and by the end of 1916 and the starting of 1917, the Ottoman Empire bought around 60% of all the lands held by the Aghas. Then, the Empire’s Financial Ministry gave the bought land to sale for prices 30% lower than market value, with the land loans being payable over a time period of 25 years at very low interest rates. This made it possible for 1.5 million peasant families, mainly in Kurdistan and Palestine, who were little more than slaves before the reforms, to own the land that they had cultivated in the name of their masters before. Given the average size of a peasant family was 5, the land reforms brought economic freedom to over a million people in the Ottoman Empire through the Ottoman Land Reform Act of 1917 passed on January 19, 1917.
Nationalization of Forests and Pasturelands took place as well in the remaining land that was not sold, and a plan of planting 9 million trees in 26 regions and creating 70,000 acres of green belts around cities and borders, to develop the nascent tourism sector of the empire was passed through the act as well. It allowed the creation of Ministry of Natural Affairs, and provided employment to many environmentalists and biologists who had once been neglected by the empire.
The Ottoman Land Reform of 1917 also took a lot of prerogatives and inspirations from the 1887 Dawes Act of the United States of America, and allowed the head of a family to receive a grant of around 80 acres, a single person over the age of maturity to receive 40 acres of land each, and that these allotments would be held in trust by the Ottoman government for 20 years.
The economic Reforms of 1917 also introduced a new set of credit and industrial reforms into the empire. The empire was at first to improve the industrial sector of the empire to adopt ‘Streamlined Production Mode’ which refers to the streamlined production that focuses on the production of raw material like steel, coal, chromium, iron, cotton. Textile production occupied a good portion of the economy, and to stimulate the production, the Ottoman government supported the new recruitment of labour, especially female labour. By enhancing the recruitment of female labour, the government believed it would increase the standard of living throughout the empire. Ahmed Riza also cultivated a policy of Heavy Industrialization. This policy led to a renewal of over-loaning, in which the Ottoman National Bank issued loans to city banks who in turn issued loans of industrial conglomerates. Since there was a smaller amount of capital in the Ottoman Empire in comparison to the great powers of Europe, industrial conglomerates borrowed beyond their capacity to repay, often beyond their net worth, causing city banks in turn to over-borrow from the Ottoman National Bank. This gave the national bank complete control over dependent local banks which allowed a proper supervision and growth of the credit sector in the economy.
The Ottoman government also began to fund heavily into agricultural export sector, with the aim of exporting agricultural goods into the rest of Europe and the entire world. Model farms, which were modern farms integrated with modern equipment were transported from countries like Sweden and Norway and introduced to Ottoman Farmers, who were called into communal model farms, where the productivity of these model farms were shown to the farmers in front of their own eyes. The better model farms were picked up by the farmers of the empire with great enthusiasm as it would ensure higher yields in the agricultural sector and allowed them to sell more agricultural goods, which would make their economic situation better as well. Agriculture was of prime importance to the Ottoman empire as land reform expanded in the empire. The Ottomans already exported scores of wheat and corn, however other agricultural exports were lacking. The expansion of agricultural exports, such as fruits, and other agricultural yields would aid the Ottoman financial situation by a good amount, and as such was targeted by the government with increased ferocity.
An Ottoman Model Farm in Macedonia. The photo was colorized in the 1970s.
The government also went into a series of new fiscal reforms to allow the nation to expand its fiscal and credit sector. The Ottoman currency was connected to the gold standard, however the 1915 Balkan War had shown to the economists in the empire, that the convertible success of the gold standard during times of crisis was not reliable. The financial troubles of Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, France and the UK, all of whom were stuck in a convertible crisis due to their own reliance on the gold standard only added credence to the government that the gold standard was not a reliable way of maintaining the currency of the government. On March 18, 1917, the Ottoman government abandoned the gold standard, and allowed a free convertible system to take place in the Ottoman currency, the Lira, allowing the Lira to float freely in the international market. This allowed the Ottoman government to increase the flow of currency and money in the empire, and increased the overall wealth of the empire, though a small slump on the import sector happened temporarily due to the abandonment of the gold standard.
Overall, the Ottoman Economic Reforms of 1917, combined with the Ottoman Economic Reforms of 1913 are both credited with having laying the foundation of the modern Ottoman economy. Both were radically successful, and allowed the Ottoman economy to transition itself into a modern economy, albeit they still had a lot of catching up to do with other first rate powers such as Britain and France.” An Economic History of the Ottoman Empire.
***
“The Ottoman Occupation of Rumelia in Bulgaria and the Ottoman Occupation of Leskovac were both massive nationalistic headaches for the Bulgarian and Serbian leaders, as nationalists in the country advocated for a second war that would drive the so called Turkish oppressors back from whence they came. Both the Serbian and Bulgarian government knew that this was impossible. The Serbian and Bulgarian military and industrial strength to support a new war had waned dangerously and the Ottomans had not so subtly threatened the Serbians and Bulgarians that any breach of the Treaties that ended the Balkan War would see the Ottomans totally deindustrialize the occupied regions, which would be fatal to the respective Bulgarian and Serbian economies.
On this backdrop, the both countries had scheduled legislative and parliamentary elections to take place in early 1917. In Serbia the People’s Radical Party had been discredited due to their actions in the Balkan War, and not many knew what was going to happen during the elections. However many members of the People’s Radical Party left the party and joined the National Party, a nationalistic party that was fervently anti-Ottoman, but more pragmatic in its outlook and promised neutralization of relations with the Ottomans. That was as best as the voters were going to get. During the 1916 Serbian Parliamentary Elections, the National Party polled 39.8% of the total vote, gaining 84 out of the 160 seats in the National Assembly. The People’s Radical Party trailed behind at 24.6% of the electorate gaining 41 seats. Rapprochement parties such as the Progressive Coalition and Social Democratic Party which had been mildly popular before the war were defeated due to nationalist rhetoric and their seats were taken up by the People’s Radical Dissidents and the Independent Radicals. All of Serbia’s national assembly now consisted of nationalists, a dangerous warning for future events, though most of the nationalists for now remained on the moderate side of things. Velmir Vukicevic ascended to the Premiership of Serbia and promised to revive the economy as his main goal.
The new Serb PM, Velmir Vukicevic.
In Bulgaria the situation was different. Having suffered the war in more difficult and desperate ways than their Serbian compatriots, very few in Serbia had to suffer an occupation after all, were now just trying to vote for a party that didn’t drag them into a new war. The socialists and communists, were all hindered by the fact that the Socialist Revolution marred their names. The Bulgarian Agrarian National Union was the only left party, besides the Social Democrats who didn’t have their name thrown into the mud in Bulgaria, and that was due to the fact that the ANU had refused to join the Democratic People’s Republic of Bulgaria, and despite their republican leanings, had remained loyal to Boris III. In their view, a republic would happen only on the mandate of the people and through democratic referendums. Boris III recognized this and outlawed every single leftist party, other than the Social Democrats, and the ANU. The ANU thereafter basically became an ironical far left, but monarchical party in Bulgaria. During the 1916 Bulgarian Parliamentary Election that was held on February 5, 1917, with a turnout of 64%, the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union won 77 seats in the 236 seat Bulgarian National Assembly, forming a plurality of the total seats. The Democratic Party trailed behind with 47 seats and the Bulgarian Social Democrats trailed at third position with 38 seats. In a political feat, the three leading parties as well as the Bulgarian Democratic Party decided to form a coalition to let the nation recover economically until the next elections. This formed an overwhelming majority in the Bulgarian National Assembly and compromise leader, minority party politician and widely respected reformist, Nikola Mushanov was elevated to the position of Prime Minister. Well liked by Boris III himself [4], his position was accepted.
Nikola Mushanov. The new Bulgarian PM.
Perhaps it is the difference in attitudes between the two countries, but the Bulgarian recovery would prove to be much more successful than its Serbian counterpart.” The Post-Balkan War Consensus. Penguin Publishing, 2018.
***
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[1] – The Vatican until the 1920s was still named as the Papal States in official documents.
[2] – he did otl as well.
[3] – For their roles in making the peace, Karl, Sixtus and Franz II are beatified as Blessed Karl, Blessed Sixtus and Blessed Franz ittl by the Papacy much like otl in regards to Karl.
[4] – true for otl as well.
**
***
“On October 27, Archduke Karl of Austria-Este came into contact with his brother in law in Belgium, on orders from Emperor Franz II. Karl asked his brother in law to meet him in Switzerland to discuss peace talks in private regarding the wider European war. Prince Sixtus of Bourbon-Parma was at first reluctant to leave his military position and duties at the Western Front, however the urgency with which Karl had called for him and the seriousness of his proposal was enough to convince the young prince, who wanted peace like any sane man to take up the offer. On November 25, the Brothers (in laws) met each other in Zurich, Switzerland in a private hotel room away from public eyes.
Prince Sixtus of Bourbon-Parma.
There, Prince Sixtus was given a set of letters written personally by Franz II with orders to meet Prime Minister Rene Viviani of France, and if possible to time the meeting with the upcoming meeting between Prime Minister McKenna an Viviani. Meeting both at the same time, would allow negotiations to go on at same pacing between Austria, France and the United Kingdom. Prince Sixtus accepted the task and was told by Karl that Franz II was willing to any peace condition with economic reparations to the Entente, alongside small border concessions to the Russians as well as demilitarization of Galicia-Volhynia if peace was achieved. Karl himself is quoted to have said ‘Peace……Peace at any price other than destruction’.
Meanwhile back in Vienna, the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister, Stephan Burian von Rajecz, caught wind that something was going on without the proper permission of the civilian government as Austrian spies, who knew nothing about Archduke Karl’s movements reported that the Archduke had met his brother-in-law in Switzerland. A Brother-In-Law known to be an officer in the Belgian Army. Rajecz decided to find out for himself what was going on and asked for an appointment with their new Emperor. Franz II granted this appointment believing it to be a mere routine explanation of the diplomatic situation of the empire. However much to his surprise, Franz II was asked about the meeting. Rajecz’s rationalization was that Karl wouldn’t do anything as rash as the meeting going on in Switzerland without the support of the Emperor. Franz II threatened Rajecz’s family to swear him into secrecy and told him about the plot for peace. Rajecz was actually in favor of the ongoing plot to get peace for the empire. He had always been in favor of parity between the German Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and had always been angered by the neo-master to vassal relationship that existed between Berlin and Vienna economically, even though the empire stood on its own firm feet militarily. Rajecz had previously been an ardent supporter of the opinion that Germany and Austria-Hungary were equal in all military, economic and political activism, which had only antagonized the man with his German counterparts.
Stephan Burian von Rajecz.
Rajecz tacitly supported the plan to gain peace and contacted Prince Sixtus through telegraph before the Prince left Switzerland asking him to wait for a new letter, written personally by him. After three days, the letter arrived and on November 29, Prince Sixtus left Switzerland, intent on bringing peace between the vast empires that were fighting with one another during the Great War.
Sixtus knew that the meeting between McKenna and Viviani was to be held on December 10, and asked for an appointment during that time period. As an aristocrat from a French dynasty, his request couldn’t be overlooked and Viviani sent Foreign Minister Doumergue to meet with Sixtus in Lyon on December 3, when Sixtus revealed that he held a message from the Austrian government. During the meeting in Lyon, Sixtus was frustrated by the fact that the French government was not actually taking his need for an appointment seriously and he decided to slip up purposefully in front of Doumergue. Doumergue was at first intrigued by the small hints that Sixtus was giving, before Sixtus revealed that he had a full blown peace deal in his hands, which if the Entente accepted would see Austria-Hungary out of the war. Doumergue was undoubtedly taken by surprise by this admission, however he agreed to allow Sixtus into the meeting between McKenna and Viviani.
Doumergue and Sixtus arrived on Paris on the 8th of December. Sixtus retired into one of his ancestral homes, whilst Doumergue went to the government and told Viviani that the Austrians were scheming for a full peace. It would be best to atleast hear the proposal out, Doumergue told Viviani. Viviani finally agreed to do hear the prince and the Austrian offer out. A formal invitation was sent to Prince Sixtus on the 9th for the meeting on the 10th.
On the 10th, Prince Sixtus met with Prime Minister Viviani and the entire French cabinet, alongside Prime Minister McKenna of Great Britain and Ambassador Alexander Izvolsky, who was the Ambassador of Russia to France.
Rene Viviani.
There, Sixtus revealed the entirety of the concessions prepared by Franz II and Foreign Minister Rajecz as well as Archduke Karl. In it, the men all agreed that a general separate peace between the Entente and the Empire of Austria-Hungary was to be pursued. Franz II was willing to pay around 8 billion pounds in reparations to be divided between the powers of Russia, France and the United Kingdom. The Empire was also willing to give up parts of Galicia-Lodomeria to the Empire of Russia, though not all of it and neither the majority of it. Finally, something that was a very reluctant move on part of the naval-lover Franz II, the Empire offered to halve its fleet for the next one and a half decades, with one third of the fleet being given to France and the UK as reparations.
It was a comprehensive deal. The Austrians had already lost around 320,000 men dead and around 370,000 casualties for a grand total of around 690,000 casualties during the entire war. And they wanted out. The British and French recognized that the loss of the Austrian navy for the Central Powers would also allow the allies to establish total naval hegemony over the Mediterranean. And the territorial concession and monetary reparations that Austria offered intrigued Izvolsky as well. Izvolsky, acting with the autonomy given to him as ambassador, demanded more land in Galicia-Lodomeria, however Sixtus who was still acting as intermediary told him that this was the initial demand, and that he had no right to negotiate other terms. He then asked permission from Viviani to allow Archduke Karl to enter French soil, to act as the official diplomat from Vienna. It was a daring move on part of Franz II, as he was going to let his official heir set foot on (nominal) enemy soil. Sixtus told the French government the only condition was that Karl was kept out of the public eye, and that proper security be given to him, along with two trusted bodyguards to be allowed with him.
Archduke Karl of Austria, the future Karl I of the Empire.
Viviani and the French cabinet debated the issue for the rest of the day before Doumergue managed to tip the scales. The cabinet agreed to allow Karl to enter French soil as long as he brought along papers identifying him as Karl of the Papal States [1], instead of Karl of Austria. As all members of the Habsburg dynasty were close to the Papacy, Karl did have papers and partial citizenship from the Papacy [2], and the conditions of both sides were accepted. On December 29, the Heir of the Austro-Hungarian Empire reached Paris, where he met with the British, French and Russian delegations to begin negotiations.
There, the main point of contention was the scale of the reparations and the border changes in the east. Karl agreed to increase the monetary reparations to a total of 9.6 billion pounds, however refused to go above that, as it would not be financial apt for the dual monarchy to cede too much monetary resources. He agreed readily to the allied demand for half of the Austrian navy to be demobilized as well. It was Galicia-Lodomeria that was the sticking point. The Russians wanted it all. Archduke Karl had to subtly remind the Russians that Austria still occupied Congress Poland and as such the Russian demands were mildly, unreasonable. The French, and more importantly the British, who were desperate for peace, were in agreement to this notion. However still, the French and British maintained the position that some kind of territorial concession would have to be given to ensure that the Russian nationalistic spectrum remained quiet after a final peace could be hammered out.
Retiring for the New Year, Karl contacted Vienna again, and told Franz II and Rajecz about the Russian demand for Galicia-Lodomeria. Franz II and Rajecz debated with one another over the Russian demand for Galicia Lodomeria and in the end agreed to two things. The Austro-Hungarian Empire would be willing to cede Ukrainian Galicia to Russia, and demilitarize the Austrian border with Russia for a decade, but Polish Galicia would be retained by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. This was a wily move. The Ukrainians of Galicia, alongside the Romanians were the only real separatist threats of the Empire, despite the multi-ethnic setup of the empire. And such losing one separatist threat for a land that wasn’t worth much economically either, wasn’t a hard thing to give up for the Austrian Emperor.
On January 3, negotiations restarted and Karl relayed the new position of the Austrian government regarding Galicia. The Russians, took it. They would have preferred to gain all of Galicia Lodomeria, however on January 1, the Germans managed to drive a Russian offensive in Eastern Prussia out of the region and defeated the Russians at the Battle of the Vistula, which made the Russian position in the Baltic all the more precarious than before.
The area east of the redline were to be ceded to Russia. The only real loss was the city of Lviv/Lwow.
On January 5, with the final concessions made, the Franz II and Rajecz told the Austrian and Hungarian civil governments about the secret negotiations. Many were not amused and worried about the German response. However the vast majority of the governments were thankful about the end of the war, and agreed to the negotiations wholeheartedly. Karl signed the Armistice of Lyon on January 11, and ended the war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Entente.
The Italians and Germans were horrified when news of the armistice and negotiations was leaked into the public. Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany telephoned Vienna and personally threatened Franz II with war. However Franz II who knew that Germany could and would not afford a new enemy, rebuffed the Kaiser’s threats and told him politely and I quote ‘This is a war you started, and Austria will not die for German mistakes.’
The quote has been used as a defining quote and phrase in Austrian nationalism that distinguishes the Austrian ethnicity away from the Germans. The Germans could do nothing than watch as the Austro-Hungarian lines in Poland ground to a halt as the Austrians refused to move, as a part of the Armistice.
On February 18, the Treaty of Paris was signed between the Empire of Austria-Hungary, Third French Republic, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, Kingdom of Spain, the Empire of China, the Russian Empire and the Japanese Empire. The terms of the treaty were straightforward and simple:-
- Articles [1 – 5] dealt with the introduction of the war and claimed Austria as a previous German ally, this declaration was to be accepted by Vienna.
- Articles [5-8] dealt with the issue of monetary reparations, and put the total Austrian reparations to stand at 9.6 billion pounds of which, 2.4 billion each would go to the UK and France respectively. 3 billion would go to Russia, whilst the remainder would be divided among the junior partners of the Entente.
- Articles [9-10] dealt with the naval reparations and detailed that the Austrians would give up 20% of their screening fleet and 60% of their capital fleet to the Entente to give up 45% of the empire’s entire fleet as a part of reparations as well.
- Articles [11-14] dealt with Galicia, and confirmed that Ukrainian Galicia would be annexed into the Russian Empire. It also confirmed that for 14 years, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to demilitarize the border with the Russian Empire.
- Article 15 was regarding the Austrian cessation in China, and the cessation was officially handed over to the government of China.
- Articles [16-18] dealt with the Allies promises to lift the blockade of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, to allow it to recover financially.
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“One of the major platforms of the Committee of Union and Progress during the 1914 Ottoman General Elections had been the lack of a proper educational focus on part of former Grand Vizier Ali Kemal. However the Balkan War, and the outbreak of the Great War had hindered the progress of the CUP in regards to education as the country transformed into a true war economy, and had no real chance of focusing on the economy as a result. That was no longer true. After a year of recovery, the CUP and socialist led government was now focusing their polices on education as well.
The reforms of Mahmud II and Abdulmejid I had laid the foundations for schooling the empire during the 30s and 40s, however the continued curriculum of the 1860s was no longer applicable in 1917. Therefore, the Ottoman government had started to compile educational statistics since early 1916 and were beginning to form a new curriculum throughout the year using the aid of scholars, both foreign and indigenous.
On January 8, 1917, the Educational Reform and Curriculum Act of 1917 was presented to the Ottoman Chamber of Deputies, and consisted of the following points:-
- The Budget of the public schools within the Empire were to be increased by 10%.
- The curriculum of 1st language, Ottoman Turkish, Arithmetic, Religious Studies and Introductory Science to be abolished.
- A new curriculum of the subjects of Ottoman Turkish, 1st Language, Mathematics, Science Studies, History, Social Studies, Practical Science, and Sports to be introduced as the national curriculum of the nation. Religious Studies, and Practical Maths as well as other foreign languages were to be optional subjects.
- The introduction of a new Educational Commission that would investigate into redundant and closed schools which were still receiving state funding.
- School hours to be limited to be within 5 to 7 hours at minimum and maximum.
- All minorities to have the right to have schools in their own tongue as long as Ottoman Turkish is taught as well.
On January 20, on the insistence of the Ministry of Education, the Benghazi University was established as the first tertiary education provider in Ottoman Libya. Construction began the next week. The University of Benghazi would later have 3 schools – the School of Management, the School of Engineering and the School of Science, as a part of its education departments.
Jeddah University of the Fine Arts today.
On February 25, as a part of the new educational drive of the empire, the Empire also established the Jeddah University of the Fine Arts. Most of the romantic and art talents of the Empire went to Hejaz to gain religious romanticism in their efforts in the arts, and as such the location of situation a Fine Arts University in Hejaz was a good one, as the receptionists and managers of the new university later complained to the Education ministry that there was just too many applicants.
Coeducation of girls and boys in schools was also legalized by an amendment to the earlier act in February 28. Centuries of sexual segregation had denied girls equal education as with boys. However the rise of the Ottoman Women’s movement and the rising social consciousness of the empire made this situation untenable and impossible. The Minister of Education on March 2, 1917 declared that coeducation was legal throughout the empire. However it was to place in a slow and ordered format, by introducing coeducation in Primary Schools in 1917, introducing it in secondary schools in 1919, and introducing it in tertiary schools by 1920. This was accepted by the representatives of the Ottoman Women’s Association.” A History of Education in the Ottoman Empire.
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“The Ottomans, despite their massive economic reforms during the Second Constitutional Era, still had one intermittent problem. That of land reform. Aghas were tribal chieftains in the empire who still held a good plurality of all the cultivable land in the Ottoman Empire, and made agriculture a mixed bag of success and failure within the empire. It didn’t help that in places like Palestine and Transjordan, many believed that the land belong to God and Sultan only, and that families only had the right to maintain the land but the notion of private property title was completely alien. Despite efforts by the Ottoman governments from 1858 to destroy this notion, it still persisted.
Farmers in the Ottoman Empire.
And massive land reform was needed for the empire, and by the end of 1916 and the starting of 1917, the Ottoman Empire bought around 60% of all the lands held by the Aghas. Then, the Empire’s Financial Ministry gave the bought land to sale for prices 30% lower than market value, with the land loans being payable over a time period of 25 years at very low interest rates. This made it possible for 1.5 million peasant families, mainly in Kurdistan and Palestine, who were little more than slaves before the reforms, to own the land that they had cultivated in the name of their masters before. Given the average size of a peasant family was 5, the land reforms brought economic freedom to over a million people in the Ottoman Empire through the Ottoman Land Reform Act of 1917 passed on January 19, 1917.
Nationalization of Forests and Pasturelands took place as well in the remaining land that was not sold, and a plan of planting 9 million trees in 26 regions and creating 70,000 acres of green belts around cities and borders, to develop the nascent tourism sector of the empire was passed through the act as well. It allowed the creation of Ministry of Natural Affairs, and provided employment to many environmentalists and biologists who had once been neglected by the empire.
The Ottoman Land Reform of 1917 also took a lot of prerogatives and inspirations from the 1887 Dawes Act of the United States of America, and allowed the head of a family to receive a grant of around 80 acres, a single person over the age of maturity to receive 40 acres of land each, and that these allotments would be held in trust by the Ottoman government for 20 years.
The economic Reforms of 1917 also introduced a new set of credit and industrial reforms into the empire. The empire was at first to improve the industrial sector of the empire to adopt ‘Streamlined Production Mode’ which refers to the streamlined production that focuses on the production of raw material like steel, coal, chromium, iron, cotton. Textile production occupied a good portion of the economy, and to stimulate the production, the Ottoman government supported the new recruitment of labour, especially female labour. By enhancing the recruitment of female labour, the government believed it would increase the standard of living throughout the empire. Ahmed Riza also cultivated a policy of Heavy Industrialization. This policy led to a renewal of over-loaning, in which the Ottoman National Bank issued loans to city banks who in turn issued loans of industrial conglomerates. Since there was a smaller amount of capital in the Ottoman Empire in comparison to the great powers of Europe, industrial conglomerates borrowed beyond their capacity to repay, often beyond their net worth, causing city banks in turn to over-borrow from the Ottoman National Bank. This gave the national bank complete control over dependent local banks which allowed a proper supervision and growth of the credit sector in the economy.
The Ottoman government also began to fund heavily into agricultural export sector, with the aim of exporting agricultural goods into the rest of Europe and the entire world. Model farms, which were modern farms integrated with modern equipment were transported from countries like Sweden and Norway and introduced to Ottoman Farmers, who were called into communal model farms, where the productivity of these model farms were shown to the farmers in front of their own eyes. The better model farms were picked up by the farmers of the empire with great enthusiasm as it would ensure higher yields in the agricultural sector and allowed them to sell more agricultural goods, which would make their economic situation better as well. Agriculture was of prime importance to the Ottoman empire as land reform expanded in the empire. The Ottomans already exported scores of wheat and corn, however other agricultural exports were lacking. The expansion of agricultural exports, such as fruits, and other agricultural yields would aid the Ottoman financial situation by a good amount, and as such was targeted by the government with increased ferocity.
An Ottoman Model Farm in Macedonia. The photo was colorized in the 1970s.
The government also went into a series of new fiscal reforms to allow the nation to expand its fiscal and credit sector. The Ottoman currency was connected to the gold standard, however the 1915 Balkan War had shown to the economists in the empire, that the convertible success of the gold standard during times of crisis was not reliable. The financial troubles of Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, France and the UK, all of whom were stuck in a convertible crisis due to their own reliance on the gold standard only added credence to the government that the gold standard was not a reliable way of maintaining the currency of the government. On March 18, 1917, the Ottoman government abandoned the gold standard, and allowed a free convertible system to take place in the Ottoman currency, the Lira, allowing the Lira to float freely in the international market. This allowed the Ottoman government to increase the flow of currency and money in the empire, and increased the overall wealth of the empire, though a small slump on the import sector happened temporarily due to the abandonment of the gold standard.
Overall, the Ottoman Economic Reforms of 1917, combined with the Ottoman Economic Reforms of 1913 are both credited with having laying the foundation of the modern Ottoman economy. Both were radically successful, and allowed the Ottoman economy to transition itself into a modern economy, albeit they still had a lot of catching up to do with other first rate powers such as Britain and France.” An Economic History of the Ottoman Empire.
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“The Ottoman Occupation of Rumelia in Bulgaria and the Ottoman Occupation of Leskovac were both massive nationalistic headaches for the Bulgarian and Serbian leaders, as nationalists in the country advocated for a second war that would drive the so called Turkish oppressors back from whence they came. Both the Serbian and Bulgarian government knew that this was impossible. The Serbian and Bulgarian military and industrial strength to support a new war had waned dangerously and the Ottomans had not so subtly threatened the Serbians and Bulgarians that any breach of the Treaties that ended the Balkan War would see the Ottomans totally deindustrialize the occupied regions, which would be fatal to the respective Bulgarian and Serbian economies.
On this backdrop, the both countries had scheduled legislative and parliamentary elections to take place in early 1917. In Serbia the People’s Radical Party had been discredited due to their actions in the Balkan War, and not many knew what was going to happen during the elections. However many members of the People’s Radical Party left the party and joined the National Party, a nationalistic party that was fervently anti-Ottoman, but more pragmatic in its outlook and promised neutralization of relations with the Ottomans. That was as best as the voters were going to get. During the 1916 Serbian Parliamentary Elections, the National Party polled 39.8% of the total vote, gaining 84 out of the 160 seats in the National Assembly. The People’s Radical Party trailed behind at 24.6% of the electorate gaining 41 seats. Rapprochement parties such as the Progressive Coalition and Social Democratic Party which had been mildly popular before the war were defeated due to nationalist rhetoric and their seats were taken up by the People’s Radical Dissidents and the Independent Radicals. All of Serbia’s national assembly now consisted of nationalists, a dangerous warning for future events, though most of the nationalists for now remained on the moderate side of things. Velmir Vukicevic ascended to the Premiership of Serbia and promised to revive the economy as his main goal.
The new Serb PM, Velmir Vukicevic.
In Bulgaria the situation was different. Having suffered the war in more difficult and desperate ways than their Serbian compatriots, very few in Serbia had to suffer an occupation after all, were now just trying to vote for a party that didn’t drag them into a new war. The socialists and communists, were all hindered by the fact that the Socialist Revolution marred their names. The Bulgarian Agrarian National Union was the only left party, besides the Social Democrats who didn’t have their name thrown into the mud in Bulgaria, and that was due to the fact that the ANU had refused to join the Democratic People’s Republic of Bulgaria, and despite their republican leanings, had remained loyal to Boris III. In their view, a republic would happen only on the mandate of the people and through democratic referendums. Boris III recognized this and outlawed every single leftist party, other than the Social Democrats, and the ANU. The ANU thereafter basically became an ironical far left, but monarchical party in Bulgaria. During the 1916 Bulgarian Parliamentary Election that was held on February 5, 1917, with a turnout of 64%, the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union won 77 seats in the 236 seat Bulgarian National Assembly, forming a plurality of the total seats. The Democratic Party trailed behind with 47 seats and the Bulgarian Social Democrats trailed at third position with 38 seats. In a political feat, the three leading parties as well as the Bulgarian Democratic Party decided to form a coalition to let the nation recover economically until the next elections. This formed an overwhelming majority in the Bulgarian National Assembly and compromise leader, minority party politician and widely respected reformist, Nikola Mushanov was elevated to the position of Prime Minister. Well liked by Boris III himself [4], his position was accepted.
Nikola Mushanov. The new Bulgarian PM.
Perhaps it is the difference in attitudes between the two countries, but the Bulgarian recovery would prove to be much more successful than its Serbian counterpart.” The Post-Balkan War Consensus. Penguin Publishing, 2018.
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[1] – The Vatican until the 1920s was still named as the Papal States in official documents.
[2] – he did otl as well.
[3] – For their roles in making the peace, Karl, Sixtus and Franz II are beatified as Blessed Karl, Blessed Sixtus and Blessed Franz ittl by the Papacy much like otl in regards to Karl.
[4] – true for otl as well.
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If the Austrians hold together after the war- and they're not out of the woods yet, serious and painful constitutional changes will be required that could threaten the integrity of the state- then that's going to combine with the resurgent Ottomans to interesting effect.
As I said upthread, the Ottoman model will be an influential one. If the Austrians make to the mid twenties in better shape than war ravaged Italy and Germany, there may well be a school of thought that suggests that, contrary to all received wisdom, unitary nationalist states are less able to deal with the pressures of the modern world than multi-ethnic federations.
As I said upthread, the Ottoman model will be an influential one. If the Austrians make to the mid twenties in better shape than war ravaged Italy and Germany, there may well be a school of thought that suggests that, contrary to all received wisdom, unitary nationalist states are less able to deal with the pressures of the modern world than multi-ethnic federations.
I just want to see the peace peace deal for germany. Hopefully if thats all what Austria lost germany can only lose the polish majority of its lands to the Russians alsace lorriane to france, plz no Kalingrad.
If ottomans are going to but heads with France how are the ottomans going to keep the Russians out why would Russia drop France as an alli now? Also poor minorities in the Russian Empire Russoficiation is going to last forever now.
If ottomans are going to but heads with France how are the ottomans going to keep the Russians out why would Russia drop France as an alli now? Also poor minorities in the Russian Empire Russoficiation is going to last forever now.
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Well, Germany and Italy are in the fire now, just have to see what they do about it.
Indeed, institutional problems will need to be taken care off by the Austrians still
Such a school of thought is extremely possible with the survival of multiethnic empires.
Since, the war actually started due to German belligerence against French Germans, the French are going to be very vindictive.
Russia has not dropped France as an ally. the UK and France only told the Russians to be a little bit more moderate on their demands.
very true. I also portrayed the Bulgarian situation as it was because there was absolutely no way the Ottomans and Romanians would accept a revanchist communist power on their doorstep. Especially since the geographic position means that in a serious war, the Bulgarians could block the Romanian coast and cut the European empire from the Asian empire of the Ottomans.
Tan Malaka, and other Indonesian nationalists will be featuring in the timeline soon enough. And yes, the survival of the Caliphate will provide a new intellectual model for both the islamic and non-islamic world.
Ethnic Heterogeneity on the socialogist field will inevitably change ittl, true.
Extremely true. By virtue of being a Caliphate, the empire will frown on killings of Muslims in the colonies, but it will not be an overt pro-decolonization empire. They have their own internal troublers that would be inspired by such an act.
Germany's losing her colonies. South Africa, Australia and New Zealand won't give up Southwest Africa or the Pacific islands even if Britain ordered them to (which is why Britain won't order them to.) East Africa finally makes Cape-to-Cairo possible, so that's going to Britain. China's not giving up Germany's ports there.
That leaves the colonies in West Africa, but they are either easy gains for Britain to make- and Britain needs stuff to show its own public that it's won the war- or they're in the hands of the French, in no mood to give up territory taken from the Kaiser. That's also the only area where Spain has any prospect of making gains.
Lastly, this war will have done a lot to empower the anti-colonial lobby in Germany. What's Germany got out of the empire? A naval race that did a huge amount to drag the most powerful economy in the world into the war against Germany and that was also, in the end, inadequate at producing a navy that could supply those colonies in the event of war. None of that territory was of particular value economically, and at least one of them caused a massive scandal after the genocide there, and another (Samoa) almost dragged Germany into a war against the British Empire and the United States for no good reason.
If there's not a negotiated piece, Germany loses the colonies. If there is a negotiated piece, they'll be the single easiest concession the Germans can make.