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XXXIII: Forming Plans (1/43)
XXXIII: Forming Plans, January 1943

In the days following the successful landings in Northwest Africa, Roosevelt and Churchill had been planning a new conference, so that the future of the war could be planned. In November, Casablanca had been proposed as the location of the conference, but after Charles de Gaulle refused to appear (it is believed he was still angry at Roosevelt’s handling of the situation in New Caledonia), the two leaders believed it would be inappropriate to have the conference in French territory, and Washington was chosen to host them instead. Stalin was offered an invitation, but declined, claiming that the ongoing Battle of Stalingrad demanded his full attention (whether it really did is open to debate: the German Sixth Army surrendered in early February).
The Third Washington Conference focused mostly on events in Europe, in line with the policy of ‘Germany first’. Stalin had been vocal in the past about his desire to see a second front opened with an amphibious landing in France, but during the conference this was decided not to be feasible in the summer of 1943, and the decision was made to land in Italy instead upon the conclusion of the Tunisian campaign, with France planned for 1944. The “unconditional surrender” policy, which had been informally discussed even before the Japanese peace offer was made, became official with the Washington Declaration. Hitler turned the declaration into a propaganda piece, attempting to motivate Germans to fight harder, “the alternative our opponents would leave us with being the dismemberment of the German nation and the eradication of the German people”. The Japanese convinced themselves that the Declaration was an attempt to disguise fear, and that American resolve was one great battle away from total collapse.

Churchill said little about the war in the Pacific during his time in Washington. Since the fall of Singapore, the British Empire’s most significant contributions to the fight against Japan consisted of the Burma front, which had stalled once more as an offensive into Arakan was defeated by the IJA, the return of the Australian and New Zealand units to their home countries, and the two carriers which would soon be sent to Fletcher. These contributions were important, but it was obvious to all that the Americans would dominate Allied policy in the Pacific, and Churchill was willing enough to follow that in exchange for more influence in Europe.
Thus it would be another conference, held in Honolulu in the last week of January, where the direction of the Pacific war would be determined. Among those attending were the four most important US commanders: Admirals King, Nimitz and Fletcher, and General Douglas MacArthur, as well as John Curtin and Peter Fraser, the Prime Ministers of Australia and New Zealand. Roosevelt was kept well informed of the discussions, but allowed his commanders to make nearly all of the decisions on how to fight Japan.
Honolulu was dominated by one question: which of two strategies was to be adopted. The first was to make the Central Pacific be the main axis of advance, beginning in Hawaii and invading a series of important island groups in Micronesia, among them the Marshalls and Marianas, before invading Japan itself and taking Tokyo. The alternative, championed by MacArthur, was to focus on the Southwestern Pacific, taking first New Guinea and then the Philippines, before striking the Home Islands from the south.
MacArthur’s proposal made a lot of political sense – the Philippines had been an American territory in 1941 after all – but few could doubt that MacArthur wanted glory for General Douglas MacArthur as well. He had spent many years in the Philippines and had developed an attachment to the people there, and had boasted “I will return” upon his defeat there the previous year. But to get to the Philippines, several island groups would have to be taken or neutralised first, New Guinea and its inhospitable terrain first among them, but also Japan’s island fortress at Rabaul and perhaps the Solomons as well. The Central Pacific route by contrast, was almost entirely open ocean, which could easily be dominated by the US Navy once Yamamoto was defeated and the copious quantities of ships currently under construction were put to sea. With little need for bloody overland campaigns like New Caledonia, it was clearly the easier route. Nimitz and Fletcher agreed that it should have the priority.

That didn’t mean that the southern route could be abandoned entirely however. While the admirals were willing to ignore MacArthur, they could not ignore their Australian and New Zealand allies in the same way. Curtin had been as fixated on New Guinea as MacArthur had been since Coral Sea, and was adamant that Port Moresby be retaken at the earliest opportunity. Fraser meanwhile advocated for Fiji’s recapture, which absent political pressure would have been entirely unnecessary. Thousands of New Zealander POWs believed still to be on Viti Levu, and the threat of an invasion of New Zealand, meant that bypassing Fiji would not be acceptable. The New Hebrides, once considered in the same light as Fiji, were now determined to be a lower priority target: New Caledonia had been won and Efate was no longer a serious threat.
While the Central Pacific strategy was favoured, it would also not be possible to attempt a primarily sea-based campaign before the end of 1943. Japan’s navy was still powerful, and Yamamoto would surely attempt to engage the landing fleet in battle, a battle where the Japanese would likely hold the advantage in numbers for the immediate future. Any attempted landings would therefore have to be conducted under land-based air cover, which was possible over Fiji and New Guinea but not over the Marshalls. While the carriers were built, the Southwestern strategy would be adopted.
Fletcher proposed Fiji as the first target, with D-day set for March or April 1943, at the end of the tropical wet season. Fiji, he argued, would be an easier target than Port Moresby, and could be used to gain experience before the more difficult operation was attempted. Not only was Fiji much more distant from major Japanese bases, but Cyclone Sam had just hit and in three months it would be unlikely for the Japanese to have totally recovered. The native resistance would also be a considerable help to the forces that landed, and the capture of a POW camp was undoubtedly more important than stopping the activities of a small submarine base. Despite MacArthur’s misgivings, King and Nimitz agreed that Fiji would be the first operation, now given the codename ‘Hangman’, while Port Moresby would follow a month or two later.

- BNC
 
So, seems the general plan is to attack in the south to take the heat off of the ANZACs while waiting for America's extra dice to be built, then swing north to outflank basically everything? I wonder if MacDaddy won't get his precious phillipines this time.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
Thousands of New Zealander POWs believed still to be on Viti Levu,

I was wondering if they had been shipped out, but am unsurprised that the Japanese didn't have the time or resources to move them. Starving Fiji out definitely not an option! Likely to be first significant number of PoWs recovered. Do the Allies have intel on their conditions yet? Will be low priority for rebuilding shelter etc, so likely to be ugly when found.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
So, seems the general plan is to attack in the south to take the heat off of the ANZACs while waiting for America's extra dice to be built, then swing north to outflank basically everything? I wonder if MacDaddy won't get his precious phillipines this time.

More to deflect the heat from the ANZACs!
 
So, seems the general plan is to attack in the south to take the heat off of the ANZACs while waiting for America's extra dice to be built, then swing north to outflank basically everything? I wonder if MacDaddy won't get his precious phillipines this time.

In this story? Doubt it. IRL? I think we would. The point is, like it or not, MacArthur was right about the political situation. The PI could not be ignored for political reasons , both foreign and domestic.
 
So, seems the general plan is to attack in the south to take the heat off of the ANZACs while waiting for America's extra dice to be built, then swing north to outflank basically everything?
Yep. Fighting through Fiji, the New Hebrides and then the Solomons, on top of everything else conquered IOTL, is seen as a waste of blood and treasure. Micronesia is favoured to save on both.

Do the Allies have intel on their conditions yet?
They've been in contact with the Fijian resistance, which has a bit of an idea of what is going on. Most importantly the fact that there is a giant camp at Suva and that the Japanese are often stealing food from the locals (which is unlikely to be passed on to dishonoured prisoners). The worst details are still very much rumours among the resistance however.

In this story? Doubt it. IRL? I think we would. The point is, like it or not, MacArthur was right about the political situation. The PI could not be ignored for political reasons , both foreign and domestic.
Haven't decided how I'm going to handle the Philippines ITTL yet tbh. Got to see what the situation is looking like in '44 first.

- BNC
 
How bad is Japan's fuel situation?
Do they have the refineries in Dutch East Indies operational or are they all sabotaged to the last pipe by the Dutch when they surrendered?
 
How bad is Japan's fuel situation?
Do they have the refineries in Dutch East Indies operational or are they all sabotaged to the last pipe by the Dutch when they surrendered?

The refineries were wrecked as OTL, but building more tankers means that a bit more unrefined oil than OTL can be transported to the Home Islands. So they have enough oil to do stuff like small troop movements and over time will acquire enough of a stockpile for another major fleet action - although not immediately.

The bigger problem at this stage is that very little of that oil is making it south of Truk - Yamamoto has pushed everything he can towards his preparations for Decisive Battle 2, and the outer perimeter will suffer for it.

- BNC
 
XXXIV: Fleet Review (2/43)
XXXIV: Fleet Review, February 1943

Imperial support for his defensive plans and the Second Decisive Battle caused Yamamoto to devote all of his energy to that plan. Despite his official role being limited to the command of the Combined Fleet, Yamamoto’s prestige among Navy ranks after the Battle of the South Pacific gave him a far greater influence over the Imperial Navy as a whole. The Minister of the Navy, Admiral Shigetaro Shimada, was a weak leader and easily influenced by Yamamoto. Their superior, the IJN Chief of Staff Admiral Osami Nagano, had meanwhile made many enemies in the Imperial Headquarters, and was reliant on Yamamoto’s support to convince the Army to do anything.
Under Yamamoto’s ‘recommendation’, the entire IJN was given orders that Yamamoto hoped would prepare it for the Second Decisive Battle. Cruisers and smaller ships would continue their usual duties as escorts, but carriers and battleships were to remain in Japan so as to avoid being drawn into another attrition battle. Six months of intense action around Fiji and New Caledonia had cost five carriers (two light) and one battleship, losses which could not be afforded and requiring oil that could not be provided. The four light carriers that had been sent to Truk a couple of months prior would remain there as a fleet in being, hoping to deter the Americans from launching an attack on Fiji or any of Japan’s other recent conquests, but they were not expected to see combat. Fuel that was not needed immediately was stockpiled in Japan, for the decisive battle would be ideally fought as far from the Home Islands as possible. With the US Navy thought to be destroyed, Yamamoto decided that he would have twelve months before the Americans could rebuild their forces and turn them against Japan. The decisive battle would be fought as soon as possible after 1 February 1944, and everything had to be ready by then.

Foremost on Yamamoto’s mind were the new battleships and carriers under construction. The second Yamato, Musashi, had just completed her sea trials and would soon become Yamamoto’s flagship, but the third of the class, Shinano, had experienced some delays and was looking at a May 1944 commission date. The other major construction project, the carrier Taiho, was also set to be completed in early 1944, too late for his desired decisive battle. Taiho’s sister ship Unryu was still in the early stages of construction, and work on that would not be able to be accelerated sufficiently. Giving up hope on being able to use Unryu, Yamamoto gave the shipyards orders to have both Shinano and Taiho ready for sea trials no later than the beginning of December 1943.
Yamamoto found better news during his tour of some of Japan’s aircraft factories. The long-awaited successors to the D3A “Val” dive bomber and B5N “Kate” torpedo bomber were both ready for production and appeared to be promising aircraft. The Val’s successor, the Yokosuka D4Y Suisei (‘Judy’ to the Allies) combined the speed of the Zero with an increased bomb load compared to the Val, and a prototype used at New Caledonia had performed well: the structural issues found in October had been resolved by some small modifications to the design. The replacement for the Kate, the B6N Tenzan (or ‘Jill’) had seen a difficult development period so far, with disputes arising regarding the engine to be used and a lack of range if self-sealing fuel tanks replaced the unprotected ones currently in use. Yamamoto, who wanted the bomber put into serial production as quickly as possible, ordered that the originally planned engine and the unprotected fuel tanks were to be used in all first-round production models. Along with improved models of the Zero fighter, the new bombers were to be the backbone of the strike forces in the second decisive battle.

The US Navy too was attempting to assemble its forces for battle as quickly as possible. Operation Hangman, the amphibious invasion of Fiji, had been set for March 21st, less than three months away when the Honolulu conference began. Fletcher currently had Hornet under his command, and Saratoga’s repair work in Puget Sound would be completed by the end of February, soon enough for it to join the fleet and be a part of the operation. The first of the Essex-class carriers were now entering commission, but they would need some months of trials before they would be ready for combat: Essex could potentially join the Port Moresby operation if trials went well, but that decision would not be made for another couple of months.
Fletcher also wanted to use the two carriers loaned to the US Navy by the British for Hangman, but trials of Victorious off the US East Coast presented a major problem: the smaller British carrier could not reliably land the TBF Avenger bomber, America’s heaviest and most powerful carrier plane at that stage in the war. Illustrious, of the same class as Victorious, would have the same issue, but that carrier had not yet arrived in Pearl Harbour from the Indian Ocean when the issue was discovered. Refitting either of the ships to handle the Avenger would take at least a month, thirty or more days that Fletcher’s timetable had no room for.
Fletcher considered postponing Hangman to allow for the refits to be completed, but eventually decided against doing so. Not only would it delay MacArthur’s invasion of New Guinea, with all the political fallout that would follow, but it would also give the Japanese time to reinforce Fiji that they would not have during the cyclone season. Cyclone Sam had undoubtedly weakened them, and he wanted to take full advantage of that weakness.
Nimitz agreed that delaying Hangman would be an unwelcome change, not just with regard to the New Guinea operation but also the beginning of the Central Pacific strategy set to begin later in the year. Rather than refit the British carriers so that they could handle Avengers, they would be added to Fletcher’s fleet with a minimum of immediate upgrades and be limited to carrying lighter American planes such as the Wildcat and SBD. Avengers would fly off Saratoga and Hornet, as well as from Tongatabu, during Hangman, and modernisation of the carriers offered by the Americans could take place at the end of their South Pacific service. Fiji, after all, was a British territory and a combined operation for all the Allies: there was no reason that the carriers on loan had to be transformed to look American.
Fletcher received word from Brisbane and Pearl Harbour saying that both carriers could be made available for his fleet by the end of March. The March 21st date remained uncertain, but if there was to be delay, he could be confident that it would not be a large one.

- BNC
 
Yeah it seem Yamamoto doesn't understand just HOW MUCH American naval production exceeds Japan. By Feb of 1944 He'll be outnumbered 2 to 1 by Essexes. Heck, he's potentially outnumbered in non-light carriers right now once the English carriers join the fray.
 
I'm just wondering why Unryu was changed, she was authorized in August 1941, and laid down in August 1942, so why is she reordered as a G-15 in September 1942? That's a couple months of delay on top of the extra build time from the heavier design

Also where are the other carriers, Japan laid down 6 Unryu class and completed 3 to 100%, 1 to 84% and 2 to 60%. Surely they would have more than just Unryu scheduled for lay down
 
Yeah it seem Yamamoto doesn't understand just HOW MUCH American naval production exceeds Japan. By Feb of 1944 He'll be outnumbered 2 to 1 by Essexes. Heck, he's potentially outnumbered in non-light carriers right now once the English carriers join the fray.
If he knew just how bad things will be by 1944, he'd probably rush for a decisive battle as soon as the oil can be found (so probably June 43). Instead, he still thinks the USN is dead and he has enough time to put his forces together for Round 2.

Wouldn't be Imperial Japan if there wasn't an overwhelming heap of overconfidence thrown in!

I'm just wondering why Unryu was changed, she was authorized in August 1941, and laid down in August 1942, so why is she reordered as a G-15 in September 1942? That's a couple months of delay on top of the extra build time from the heavier design

Also where are the other carriers, Japan laid down 6 Unryu class and completed 3 to 100%, 1 to 84% and 2 to 60%. Surely they would have more than just Unryu scheduled for lay down
Unryu of OTL was a case of Japan attempting for quantity, but the combination of Pearl Harbour, Coral Sea and the early part of FS convinced the Japanese ITTL to go for quality instead - there's no Midway-type shock to make the Japanese go "oh **** we need a ton more carriers right now". Because they're now thinking in terms of quality, the weaker Unryu design looks less useful than another Taiho.

Then Yamamoto came in and started turning the entire IJN into "decisive battle above all else", which pushes the steel towards already in-production ships (primarily Shinano) to get them done as quick as possible, and the Army is demanding that steel be turned towards Army projects - this doesn't leave a lot of room for Unryu's sisters.

- BNC
 
Unryu of OTL was a case of Japan attempting for quantity, but the combination of Pearl Harbour, Coral Sea and the early part of FS convinced the Japanese ITTL to go for quality instead - there's no Midway-type shock to make the Japanese go "oh **** we need a ton more carriers right now". Because they're now thinking in terms of quality, the weaker Unryu design looks less useful than another Taiho.

Then Yamamoto came in and started turning the entire IJN into "decisive battle above all else", which pushes the steel towards already in-production ships (primarily Shinano) to get them done as quick as possible, and the Army is demanding that steel be turned towards Army projects - this doesn't leave a lot of room for Unryu's sisters.

- BNC
Unryu dates to 1939 in authorization and 1941 in ordering, it wasn't an oh crap design but an outgrowth of doctrine. In September 1942 Unryu has been under construction at least a month. There is nothing saved by changing her to a G-15 at that late a date. Building her as an Unryu won't interfere with building a G-15 and the long lead items are already on order which would then be reordered for a G-15. The choice is not Unryu in early 44 or a G-15 in early 45 but Unryu in early 44 and a G-15 in early 45 or G-15 Unryu in early '45. Japan actually has the resources to finish her without compromising the next G-15

And not converting Shinano saves resources for 2 Unryu's, not converting the Ise's saves more, same with not converting Ibuki's. It's one thing not to order 15 of the things in Sep '42 as in OTL, it's another not to say order 2 more Unryu's to be ready late 1944 and 2 G-15's for late '45, which they have the shipbuilding capacity to do given they did the the equivalent of more OTL
 
I presume the ending to OP FS is the same as OTL. Japan getting absolutely destroyed by the sheer weight of US production, regardless of whatever tricks they can pull.
 
Theres one ship that you forgot: the I-400 submarines, one of Yamamoto "childs" :p

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400-class_submarine
UGH! I had totally forgotten about those!

Although, they wouldn't be ready until 1945, and any realistic amount of rushing production isn't going to get them in commission and active service in time for the decisive battle (early 44 sometime, date TBD). So they can't really factor into TTL in any major way :( . As things stand, I'm probably going to end the TL shortly after the second decisive battle, so introducing stuff that won't matter until late 45 is a bit pointless (and I really can't justify another thirty updates for a final year of the war that won't be too different from OTL)

If you're wondering what I might do if I included the I-400s, my first thought was "have Yamamoto get as many as he can into the decisive battle, then create some elaborate trap (how else would an IJN plan look?) that involves using the fleet to draw the US carriers away, followed by submarines surfacing and launching torpedo bombers from the other side". And that is about as cool as a decisive battle can get, so I'd probably end up using that idea if I was going to include the subs at all.

- BNC
 
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