I still disagree, the otter fur was found around the Kurils and Sakhalin but not in the mainland Siberia meaning that outside of some expeditions I don't see the japanese staying there definitely, because what other furs where in the region could already be found in both Japan and Manchuria and Korea (beaver which was highly prized alongside foxes) so if they really want to get rich trying for those areas would be ideal, especially since Japan attacked Korea IOTL so it wouldn't be unprecedented.I'm pretty sure the ppl in Hokkaido (especially the nobles) would want to get rich, and if they're the first to get to sea otters they'd make a shit ton of money and want to expand their hunting grounds as they explore the sea of ohtosk and the Aleutians.
Yep. Japan can field navies and armies much more easily than russia. I'd think it'd be easy to get infantrymen and sailors from the settlers of hokkaido/
ye I think it'd work well. Maybe Britain also takes bits of sumatra.
Not making as much profit as the trade in the south has no meaning when exploiting it makes the area around hokkaido much more lucrative. Considering the Dutch would really like the sea otter fur that the japanese get around the kurils it'd pay for the settling of siberia and alaska (and exploit beavers in Manchuria) and act as a good reason to kick the russians out. It isn't a zero sum game where the entire nation moves in one direction, the Japanese up north want to have opportunities too. Would they garner less attention than SEA? Yeah. But it would be enough to snuff out Russian coastal control in the Far East.
tbf thinking Russia would get to the pacific coast is very deterministic too. Japan ittl has a lot of resources to explore the north seas and also the connection to the europeans to want to export the furs of sea otters (which was seen as the best fur around, and the ainu would be giving various pelts as gifts to the Japanese, so I'd think the dutch would notice) and would make hokkaido a better place to immigrate to than otl, which is good for further colonisation of the region (Canada was settled for the fur trade). Also, the Japanese don't gain much by trading with the Russians since the trans siberian railway isn't built, and Russian control over the region is nominal. Japan makes their own guns, and they can hunt the best fur they could find in the Kurils. Instead, Japan's primary directive it to prevent the Russians from exploiting that resource that the Japanese are exploiting. This makes conflict much more likely, and that's why I think Japan would try to lock out Russian oceanic access to prevent Russian sailors from hunting sea otters, which would lead to conflict over the coastal regions of the Sea of Ohtosk.
It's more about preventing the Russians from getting to the sea otter areas as I don't think the Russians would care about Japanese demands at first since they'd not know the Japanese are there. Then the situation escalates.
China won't be a prize until the middle to late 19th century, you're talking about things two centuries earlier. Japan won't have the power to get anything on mainland china, even if the navy of China is relatively weak. China did have comparable cannonry and breech loading matchlocks at that time, and as the battle of fort zeelandia showed they could fight the Dutch effectively too. It was the later closing off which made China progressively weaker until they could no longer resist the Europeans. While I think China when weak is very ineffective but at that time it wasn't the case. tbf it makes the later Qing armies with swords fighting the europeans even more shocking really. When China skirmished against the Cossaks they definitely won the battle too.
ooh that's interesting would there be a marriage between the Siamese and the Honjo clan? It would bind Siam and Japan together which would be good for both countries.
And outside of agriculture and some natural resources like coal, Hokkaido already wasn't very rich and was one of the main reasons the japanese took so Damm long to actually settle and control the place because they didn't see anything of value there. I don't see why the Lords of the controlled areas would act any different to again, go in uncharted waters and territory they little to nothing about in the hopes of finding some furs that could maybe become a temporary station before they overhunt the animals and go back to Japan.
Why would the Russians not know about the japanese? They already trade with the Dutch a lot trough the Baltic and would know about them (as most of Europe did), considering how the Russians were careful to keep decent borders with China and Korea (only getting territory because of their weakness later on) they would be wise enough to approach the japanese carefully and attempt a diplomatic approach.
And this actually ties in with another point, that if they get at least amicable relations, Japan will simply not need to expand in Siberia either because of economic reasons or simple diplomacy, the Russians can't and don't want to threaten them and settle some unknown land with furs that while good, can be found in other places like Manchuria. There's literally no reason for Japan to start a conflict with them because they don't NEED to