No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Thank you for update, @alexmilman
And where were the European and American officers?
I think that they just don't care about "savages".
The cruelty with which these uprisings had been suppressed became known outside the OE and produced “mass protests” in Europe and even the US.
I suppose that in this TL international environment such protests rather nuisance for Turkey than serious problem( unlike OTL where "Bulgarian Horrors" seriously harmed turkish reputation in eyes of one of her main protectors, Great Britain). If they have good relations with Russia and Hungary they can rule very, very long (because even weak Turkey strong enough to crush even weaker and smaller Balkan states and statelets).

On the other side of this equation were the Egyptian attitudes: by the reasons which was really hard to imagine, the ungrateful natives were seemingly unhappy with the growing role of the foreign bankers, entrepreneurs and diplomats controlling Egypt’s financial system. Rather paradoxically, in the army which Muhammed Ali created based upon the European model appeared that part of the Westernized intelligentsia, which, based on the European ideals of the national freedom and sovereignty, demanded independence from the West. Of course, besides these ideals, there was also a contributing “materialistic” factor: due to the ongoing financial problems, Khedive had been regularly delaying the troops’ salaries. And, having as their superiors the obvious nincompoops who got the command positions by the virtue of being westerners and royally screwed up two campaigns against Ethiopia also was humiliating and helped to ignore the obvious fact that the native Egyptian officers did not demonstrate any brilliant performance either and completely failed to train their own troops.
Ideal formula not only for social explosion but for further deterioration of conditions. Foreigners, which combines rapaciousnes and naivety vs native officer corps, restless and ambitious but incapable to properly functioning.
But I hope that in next updates French will have a good slap in the face in Egypt.
 
retaining the empire
283. Retaining the empire
All subjects of the empire are indifferently called Otomans, whatever the religion they profess.”
Midhat Pasha, Ottoman Constitution, 1876
“I’m Chukchi writer, not the Chukchi reader”
A popular Soviet joke [2]
“The Balkans aren't worth the life of a single Pomeranian grenadier.”
Bismarck
There are Slavs and they are numerous; there is no Slavism or it is still very weak and not clear.”
K.N.Leontev


Ottoman Empire.
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In 1876 the Ottoman Empire got itself a Sultan, Abdul Hamid II, who was not visibly insane and seemingly did not suffer from mania grandiosa. One of the first things he did was to sign the constitution proposed by his Vizier Midhat Pasha [1]. The constitution provided for equal rights for all citizens without distinction of race or creed, abolition of slavery, an independent judiciary based on civil (rather than religious) law, universal elementary education, and a bicameral parliament, with a Senate appointed by the Sultan and a directly elected Chamber of Deputies. Among other things it promised:
  • The press is free within the limits inscribed by law.”
  • “Immovable and movable property, legally fixed, is guaranteed. There can be no alienation of property except for the public benefit, duly certified and after advance payment, according to the law, of the value of the alienated property.”
  • “The private dwelling is inviolable. Public power can’t by force enter into the home of anyone, except in cases determined by law.”
  • Personal freedom is completely inviolable. No one, under any pretext, may be subjected to any punishment other than in cases determined by law and in accordance with the forms prescribed by him.
  • The members of the Chamber of the Deputies were provided immunity during the session, unless caught red-handed, and even then only if a majority agrees to investigation.
  • There was even a temporary provision for the members of the lower chamber waiving for 4 years a mandatory knowledge of the Turkish language at least on a level of being able to read.
Of course, there were some other items that could be considered less “democratic”:
  • His Majesty the Sultan is irresponsible; his personality is sacred and inviolable.
  • His Majesty the Sultan, among his supreme rights, enjoys the following prerogatives: he appoints and removes ministers; he grants the ranks, positions and badges of his orders; he gives investment to the heads of privileged provinces, according to the content of the privileges granted to them; he orders to mint a coin; his name is pronounced in mosques during public prayer; he declares war; he concludes peace; he commands over the land and naval forces; he disposes the movements of troops; he orders the enforcement of the decrees of the sharia (holy law) and laws; he issues decrees on public administration; he pardones or modifies the punishments of persons convicted by criminal courts; he convenes and consolidates the national assembly; he dissolves, if he recognizes this as necessary, the house of appointment of new deputies.
  • In cases of manifestations of facts or signs that force to anticipate unrest at any point on the territory of the empire, the imperial government has the right to declare a state of siege in this paragraph. The consequences of the state of siege are the temporary termination of civil laws.
In general, constitution was quite on a “mainstream” level and, logically, would have to please everybody inside and outside the empire. Fat chance:
  • The members of international conference simply ignored it existence because they gathered to write the rules, not to read documents written by others. They preferred the 1856 constitution (Islâhat Hatt-ı Hümâyûnu) or the 1839 Gülhane edict (Hatt-ı Şerif), and questioned whether there was need for a parliament to act as an official voice of the people. [3]
  • The Ulema and devoted Muslims were considering it being anti-Sharia and an idea of the infidels getting the same rights would require a very serious mental readjustment.
  • Some of the provinces referred to in the constitution were alarmed, such as Rumania, Scutari and Albania, because they thought it referred to them having a different change of government or no longer being autonomous from the Empire.
Anyway, with the Constantinople Conference being successfully completed [4], the only thing that Abdul Hamid had really to fear was the Russian reaction: the rest of the participants could do little on their own, even if they wanted and most of them did not want. Will Russia remain the Ottoman ally or is it going to be seduced by the temptation of gaining something tangible at the Ottoman expense? Or, even worse, would AIII be forced to act against the Ottomans due to the domestic pressure?

When Serbia and Montenegro had been ready to start war with the OE to support rebels of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Austria and Hungary forced them to abandon that idea.
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However, one of the leaders of Slavophiles I.S. Aksakov believed that it was not necessary to seriously rely on the consent of Serbia and Montenegro not to start a war with Turkey. In a letter to V.A. Cherkassky on September 21, 1875, he claimed that "the uprising is not tamed at all, but only flares up," and Serbia and Montenegro "will not stand neutrality: the cup of patience is filled and it will go over the edge from the slightest drop. What will happen then? Russia cannot allow Austria to occupy Serbia with its troops. This would be the beginning of the fall for Russia... In short, unless the diplomacy manages to keep the "status quo" and make Herzegovina and Bosnia enjoy some cheeky nonsense - there will be thunder and blows!”

The Orthodox Church also was actively involved in organizing the humanitarian help and this resulted in a wide grass roots support: out of 811,000 rubles of donations collected by the Slavic Committee two third had been coming from the lower classes. Tzar ordered the authorities to take measures "to curb illegal and inappropriate actions of the committee", referring to its call to raise funds for "fighters for independence". However, the committees kept functioning expecting that the government may use the public opinion for putting pressure upon the OE. In April 1876, the Bulgarian uprising began. Slavic comittees sent them weapons and several Russian officers, Bulgarians of origin, joined the rebels.
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The uprising was suppressed in a severe way: the Turks burned 80 villages and ravaged more than 200 settlements. The bulk of Bulgarian refugees were accepted by Romania, Serbia and Montenegro. The latter began to actively prepare for war with the Ottoman Empire. However, the Russian government still hoped to avoid it. Russian Consul General in Belgrade A.N. Kartsov told Serbian Prince Milan that Russia would not help Serbia if it started a war with the Turks. He replied that he could not resist the will of the people who demand to oppose Turkey. In July 1876. Serbia and Montenegro declared war on the Ottoman Empire.
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After that activities of the Slavic Committee intensified: 5 hospitals had been open in Montenegro and the committees of various cities had been sending their doctors to Serbia and Montenegro. In total, 115 doctors, 78 paramedics, 118 nurses, 41 students of the Medical and Surgical Academy were sent to Serbia from Russia.
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At that time Serbia was accepting all volunteers; there were many volunteers from different countries, including Russians, Bulgarians, Italian followers of Giuseppe Garibaldi and Prussian officers, and also Englishmen, Frenchmen, Greeks, Romanians and Poles. The Slavic Committee of Moscow headed by Aksakov started (illegal) recruiting of the volunteers ready to go and fight in Serbia.
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Cherry on the top of the cake was general Chernyaev who secretly contacted Prince Milan of Serbia and left for Belgrade. AIII ordered him to return and he refused. Milan appointed him commander-in-chief of the Serbian army, which was a fatal mistake because Chernyaev’s self-esteem did not coincide with his military talents. From the very start of the hostilities the Serbian army had been suffering one defeat after another. Battle of Aleksinac, which happened on September 1st 1876, presented a perfect opportunity to test Dragomirov’s favorite idea regarding spirit being superior to the firepower: Serbian bayonet charge was broken by the Ottoman fire.
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The Slavophiles were considering the government’s policy as brainless, insane and heartless. Depending upon the personal preferences, their leaders suspected that it is a dastardly plot of either Britain or Austria. Now they were acting as if they were a government of their own communicating with the foreign officials, recruiting and sending the volunteers for a war.

Some members of the military establishment who were not Slavophiles started expressing “pro-Slavic” sentiments. They were easy to understand: in a generally peaceful country where the last war (quite limited in scope) had been fought more than a decade ago, a big-scale war was the obvious way to get the fast promotions. Of course, they were not demanding the war, this was pretty much unthinkable, but some inappropriate statements had been made in public by the prominent military figures. Of course, these statements had been made during the banquets and similar occasions and the speakers were usually not 100% sober and could be excused.

By the summer of 1876 AIII saw that he can’t keep ignoring the situation. In his opinion, creation of the small Slavic states on the Balkans will give Russian Empire nothing but a headache because they will immediately start quarreling with each other forcing Russia to take sides and, while counting upon the Russian protection, would give nothing in return [5]. Of course, he had nothing about the doctors traveling to tend the wounded and sick (well, actually, why wouldn’t they tend to the Russian patients instead?) but Aksakov & Co had been steadily becoming more and more annoying forgetting their place. The enthusiasts even called Aksakov “Russian Bismarck” and AIII had no intention to allow the publishing nobody to define Russian foreign policy. Just to get a complete picture, he ordered the chief of the General Staff, general Obruchev, to make a fast estimate of a cost of the possible war and got an answer that it would be in a ballpark of 1,000,000,000 rubles (give or take few millions). On that point even slightest doubts had been gone: AIII was not going to waste such amount of money on the projects unrelated to strengthening Russian Empire.

Operations of the Slavic committees had been taken under the strict government supervision. The medical activities had been permitted but purchasing of the weapons and recruiting volunteers for fighting had been prohibited. The officers itching for action had been warned that those leaving without official permission will be considered deserters and those who are retiring will never be allowed back to the state service. Abdul Hamid had been assured that Russian Empire is not going to abandon its friendly position to the Ottoman Empire. However, it would be a good move to come to a mutual understanding with the Serbs. Abdul Hamid paid attention: a two months armistice had been declared and on 16 February 1877 the OE and Serbia signed a peace treaty reinstating the antebellum situation.
  • Slavophiles had been greatly disappointed: their time of glory was over and so was their influence.
  • General Obruchev was awarded order of St. Anna 1st class.
  • Aksakov was forbidden to continue publishing activities until the further notice. He was, understandably, unhappy but there was no revolution or even a small demonstration in his defense.
  • Chernyaev was “immortalized” in Saltykov-Schedrin’s satire “The modern idyll” as “Rededia, a general for hire”.
  • The Serbs were happy to get off that easy.
  • Disraeli was glad to have this crisis ending but disappointed that AIII did not stick out his neck and Russia was not weakened by an expensive war.
  • Bismarck did not give a blip.
  • Bunge, Russian Finance Minister, was quite happy.
  • The big maneuvers of two military districts provided an opportunity for distributing promotions and awards.
With the peace restored Abdul Hamid II had to turn his attention to other issues.
  • The top priority was to build an appropriate residence. Yıldız Palace, meaning "Star Palace", was built in 1880.
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  • Less pleasant issue was a need to pay debts. In 1875, the nominal public debt was £200,000,000, with annual interest and amortization payments of £12,000,000, more than half the national revenue. Within the following six years it was reduced down to £191,000,000 and in 1881 the Ottoman Public Debt Administration (OPDA) was established. This made the European creditors bondholders, and assigned special rights to the OPDA for collecting various tax and customs revenues within the Ottoman Empire. As a result, the debt was reduced from £191,000,000 to £106,000,000.
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  • His push for education resulted in the establishment of 18 professional schools, and in 1900, Darulfunun, now known as Istanbul University, was established. He also created a large system of secondary, primary, and military schools throughout the empire.
  • The railroad and telegraph systems had been expanded and eventually the Orient Express connected Paris to Constantinople.
  • While he, of course, signed the constitution soon after accession, upon serious contemplation and taking into an account the fate of Abdul Azuz, he came to the conclusion that after all a constitutional government was not a good idea and behaved accordingly. The parliament had been called only once, information was tightly controlled and the press was severely censored. A secret police (Umur-u Hafiye) and a network of informants was present throughout the empire and the curriculum of schools was subject to close inspection to prevent dissidence.
All these activities had been met with a sight of relief by the responsible European politicians: now the Sultan started behaving as a mature and competent ruler and has to be treated accordingly.

Of course, by that time France already annexed Tunisia. Well, it had a valid excuse. The Bey of Tunis, inspired by the Ottoman example, attempted to effect a modernizing reform of institutions and the economy with a predictable result: Tunisian international debt grew unmanageable and the French had to do something to remedy the situation. After the country declared bankruptcy, the international commission took control over its economy and in 1881 after somebody reported that the armed people looking like the Tunisians had been seen somewhere in Algeria (undeniable act of an aggression), the French invaded with an army of about 36,000 and forced the Bey to agree to the terms of the Treaty of Bardo (Al Qasr as Sa'id) by which Tunisia was officially made a French protectorate. Italy was objecting (they were seemingly confused regarding their true place on a totem pole) but why would anybody pay slightest attention? After all, they were permitted to hold that nice sandy beach on the Read Sea shore as their colony and they were allowed to live in Tunisia (which they were doing since the XVI century, anyway).

Back to the subject of being respected, Abdul Hamid was assured by France, Britain and Russia that Tripolitania remains in his possession. This time the Italian government was smart enough not to express its opinion. Actually, Emperor Charles was for a short while entertaining the idea of annexing Tripolitania as well but he was assured by the British and Russian governments that this was not a very good idea and, being an intelligent person, reconsidered.

Ottoman Empire and Egypt. Economy (boring stuff)
By the 1870s both countries were in a bad economic and financial situation but there were nuances which, in a long run, had been favoring the OE (providing there would be no major disasters).

The sweeping changes transforming industrial production worldwide during nineteenth century also had a far-reaching impact on Middle Eastern manufacturing. The region, most of which belonged to the Ottoman Empire, became an exporter of primary commodities and an importer of manufactured goods. Increased integration with the world economy, in part due to steamships and railroads, accelerated the process of its manufacturing decline.

The collapse of Egyptian industry started in the 1840s, when Muhammad Ali’s policy of state-led industrialization was replaced by one of laissez-faire. The imported raw materials and machinery were taxed at the same rate as finished products. Excise duties were levied on a variety of locally produced goods, notably the 8% duty on local cotton goods. This offset the 8% import tariff, leaving the industry de facto completely unprotected. Egypt represented an extreme case of agricultural specialization. Cotton accounted for more than 80% of total exports in the 1880s. The ACW increased the central importance of the raw fibre, and its share of government and private investment. Unsurprisingly, the second half of the nineteenth century saw only minimal industrial progress, despite considerable foreign investment and dramatic improvements in Egypt’s transportation network: the share of industry (both mechanized and non-mechanized) did not exceed 2.3%. Agriculture, construction, finance, and trade attracted most foreign and domestic investment, being most profitable and relatively less risky. Egyptian industry in the 1870s - 1880s consisted of a small traditional manufacturing sector, co-existing with an even smaller mechanized sector. Employment was dominated by textiles and clothing (53% of employment), both largely non-mechanized. Food processing, which ranked third (17 %), was also dominated by small, mostly unmechanized, family firms. Mechanization started in a few manufacturing sectors, mainly related to elementary raw material processing. Most important were sugar refining and cotton ginning/pressing, accounting for 65.6% of capital invested in industry by the late 1880s.

Turkey’s manufacturing production also declined during the nineteenth century, but less than in Egypt. Cotton textiles provide the most dramatic example, with the share of domestic producers falling from 97 to 25–35% between the 1820s and the 1870s. More than half of the decline involved spinning and weaving by rural households. Most other branches of manufacturing shrank to a lesser extent or were not affected at all, either because the productivity increases in the European core were more limited, and/or because high transportation costs continued to protect Ottoman producers. Finally, exceptional cases such as carpet making and silk reeling saw increases in employment and production, due to growing demand in developed countries.

In the 1860s the OE caved to the British and French pressure to adopt the free trade and low tariffs in exchange to the agreement to supply the modern ironclads and weapons.

After 1870 Ottoman trade growth slowed, and the decline in textile manufacturing moderated and was even reversed in some areas, despite low tariffs. This slower manufacturing decline, which in some regions and sectors led to a process of re-industrialization, was consistent with a reversal in the terms of trade. In some regions, small-scale urban workshops began using imported yarn to expand their output of cotton and mixed cotton cloths to meet local demand. Moreover, while hand spinning continued to decline, the volume of weaving rose, thanks to the imports. Significant amounts of textiles were shipped to long-distance markets elsewhere in Anatolia, Syria, and Egypt. Then, there was establishment of a small number of factories in Turkey, mostly in the western part of the country, in Istanbul and Izmir. Cotton, woollen and silk textiles, food processing, and construction materials such as cement and brick, were the most important branches. Nevertheless, the output of these mechanized factories remained limited when compared with domestic handicraft production. Besides shortage of a capital and skilled workers, low tariffs and open economy conditions were the main determinants of the country’s weak industrial performance.

Nor did the Ottoman (or Egyptian) currency provide any support for domestic manufacturing, being linked to gold. Low tariffs exposed domestic manufacturing to strong competition from abroad. Both countries remained vulnerable to international price shocks: improving terms of trade up to the 1870s contributed to manufacturing decline. The reversal of this trend from the 1870s onwards provided some relief to the import-competing sectors.

Domestic tastes also afforded local handicrafts some staying power. Although European companies attempted to imitate local styles, often they could not do so satisfactorily, and thus there was still demand for domestic cloth, including cotton, woollen, and mixed varieties. Knowledge of local preferences helped domestic manufactures survive in the short run, while imported foreign techniques and foreign managers increased their efficiency and competitiveness in the longer run.

Turkish geography offered more protection to domestic producers. Foreign goods were unable to penetrate regions distant from major trade routes or ports, especially before the railway boom late in the century. High transportation costs also provided considerable protection to domestic producers of bulky, non-textile goods, even in some coastal areas. On the other hand, Egyptian geography left the country more exposed to import penetration. The Nile valley in Lower Egypt, which included the vast majority of the population and cultivated land, represented a more compact and homogeneous area, and was thus easier and less costly to access. Large investments and improvements in transportation networks further facilitated import competition.

There were crucial economic differences between Egypt and Turkey:
  • Large-scale commercialization in agriculture, a lack of export diversification, land scarcity, and the existence of powerful landed and foreign interests continued to characterize the Egyptian economy. Even the state-sponsored irrigation programs could not drastically increase size of the agricultural land. The inefficient revenue system based on land taxes, remained a powerful constraint on the government’s fiscal capacity. The government, being under the strong foreign pressure, stuck to the low tariffs for the imports.
  • Turkey was different. Commercial agriculture was limited to the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts; the share of exports in national income was smaller; the export basket was more diverse and land was relatively abundant. Turkey was still bound to the low tariff system but had more freedom in changing that situation. With the growing nationalist sentiment among the military and civilian bureaucracy neither local wealthy elites nor foreign powers had been excessively influential in policy making.

__________
[1] He was not a member of the commission that drafted the constitution but played an important part in its adoption.
[2] It was about a Chukchi made a member of the Union of the Soviet Writers (every nation had to be represented in it) and beinasked if he read Lev Tolstoy. I bet that most of the population of the SU did not read his books either unless forced at school and, anyway, shouldn’t people stick to their professions? 😉
[3] Which was a very interesting position for the countries with the parliaments of their own. But they were civilized and the Ottomans were not. Anyway, constitution of 1856, while formally guaranteeing the equal rights of the minorities, was clearly making them into the separate entities all the way to creating “mixed tribunals” to handling the cases involving different religions.
[4] As in, each side did not pay attention to what other side is saying and the whole charade ending without any action besides a written reprimand to the Ottomans regarding atrocities in Bulgaria.
[5] This is ITTL, not OTL. 😜
 
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There were crucial economic differences between Egypt and Turkey:
  • Large-scale commercialization in agriculture, a lack of export diversification, land scarcity, and the existence of powerful landed and foreign interests continued to characterize the Egyptian economy. Even the state-sponsored irrigation programs could not drastically increase size of the agricultural land. The inefficient revenue system based on land taxes, remained a powerful constraint on the government’s fiscal capacity. The government, being under the strong foreign pressure, stuck to the low tariffs for the imports.
  • Turkey was different. Commercial agriculture was limited to the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts; the share of exports in national income was smaller; the export basket was more diverse and land was relatively abundant. Turkey was still bound to the low tariff system but had more freedom in changing that situation. With the growing nationalist sentiment among the military and civilian bureaucracy neither local wealthy elites nor foreign powers had been excessively influential in policy making.
So, difference between egyptian and turkish economics - as diferrence between COVID-19 and swine flu.

Cotton accounted for more than 80% of total exports in the 1880s.<...> the share of industry (both mechanized and non-mechanized) did not exceed 2.3%. Agriculture, construction, finance, and trade attracted most foreign and domestic investment, being most profitable and relatively less risky. Egyptian industry in the 1870s - 1880s consisted of a small traditional manufacturing sector, co-existing with an even smaller mechanized sector. Employment was dominated by textiles and clothing (53% of employment), both largely non-mechanized. Food processing, which ranked third (17 %), was also dominated by small, mostly unmechanized, family firms. Mechanization started in a few manufacturing sectors, mainly related to elementary raw material processing. Most important were sugar refining and cotton ginning/pressing, accounting for 65.6% of capital invested in industry by the late 1880s.
Recipe for catastrophe in case of first serious internal/external crisis.
 
Thank you for update, @alexmilman

I think that they just don't care about "savages".
Are you implying that their “principles” were selective? What a shock! 😂

I suppose that in this TL international environment such protests rather nuisance for Turkey than serious problem( unlike OTL where "Bulgarian Horrors" seriously harmed turkish reputation in eyes of one of her main protectors, Great Britain).

Which was of a little practical importance in OTL as the later events demonstrated. The British public switched from hating the Turks to hating the Russians with an amazing ease. 😂

If they have good relations with Russia and Hungary they can rule very, very long (because even weak Turkey strong enough to crush even weaker and smaller Balkan states and statelets).
Except for Greece (which was, AFAIK, passive in 1875-78), there are no “states”, only “statelets” and OE in OTL crushed them rebellious ones before Russia got into the picture. So no major problem there.

Ideal formula not only for social explosion but for further deterioration of conditions. Foreigners, which combines rapaciousnes and naivety vs native officer corps, restless and ambitious but incapable to properly functioning.

We can easily fix “naivety” part. 😉
But I hope that in next updates French will have a good slap in the face in Egypt.
Why would they? In OTL the Brits took charge but this would not have to happen without the French compliance. Realistically, the rebels did not have too much of a chance due to the low quality of their military force and, with a more flexible policies the whole revolt and following foreign occupation was probably avoidable.
 
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Impressive that the Russian government managed to avoid the ''Pan Slavic pill'' as it was something that was never really something that could be controlled, creating a precedent would have led to much worse even if it did spook the Tsar seeing his subjects throw their pollical agency against the Ottomans.

Egypt appears to be heading down the same path as the OTL, except possible even more at risk of starvation given the ACW boom lasted longer and maybe slightly less slavery. With a out of touch wannbe reformist autocratic high class with their foreign pals, a army that is divided between nationalists officers to focused on scheming and intrigue and soldiers that are neglected, abused (being sold into slavery by your officers was a very risk in Sudan) focused on not starving casue of lack of pay and ignored and angry majority it's not going to end well.

The question I suppose is how the powers deal with it, sure the Ottomans probably would be satisfied with a lot of parties dealing with but some Islamic PR could be useful so they might try and gain that if they can, Russia would make sure the Ottoman's don't come out looking weak and Britain and France have serious contentious issues over the spoils.

All parties though can agree on the Egyptian people are a bit disturbing to see politically active and would much rather have someone keep them quiet and deal with Egypt through them than with the masses.
 
Why would they? In OTL the Brits took charge but this would not have to happen without the French compliance. Realistically, the rebels did not have too much of a chance due to the low quality of their military force and, with a more flexible policies the whole revolt and following foreign occupation was probably avoidable.
I just don't like french "informal empire", so this is a kind of wishful thinking from my side. :)

Except for Greece (which was, AFAIK, passive in 1875-78), there are no “states”, only “statelets” and OE in OTL crushed them rebellious ones before Russia got into the picture. So no major problem there.
Yes, of course.

Which was of a little practical importance in OTL as the later events demonstrated. The British public switched from hating the Turks to hating the Russians with an amazing ease
well, yes.
Are you implying that their “principles” were selective? What a shock!
And what's next? Christmas gifts are not brought by Santa??777 :)

Impressive that the Russian government managed to avoid the ''Pan Slavic pill'' as it was something that was never really something that could be controlled, creating a precedent would have led to much worse even if it did spook the Tsar seeing his subjects throw their pollical agency against the Ottomans.
ITTL it was much easier, because Russia and Turkey in good terms, so one of most important motives of support of Panslavism gone. OTL, Panslavism viewed as more-or-less useful tool to weaken enemy on southern border (even in worst case better deal with coterie of small hostile states than with one big hostile state).
 
Impressive that the Russian government managed to avoid the ''Pan Slavic pill'' as it was something that was never really something that could be controlled, creating a precedent would have led to much worse even if it did spook the Tsar seeing his subjects throw their pollical agency against the Ottomans.

IMO, the whole hype consisted of 2 main components:
  1. Noisy “philosophers”/publishers who were more than a little bit loco on the issues of the “Slavic world”, bad Western influences, etc. They invented never-existing in a reality notion of the pan-Slavic unity (which, AFAIK, was not including the Poles and I doubt about the Czechs) and made a lot about the Ottoman cruelties in suppressing rebellions on the Balkans. Needless to say that one of their “heroes”, Chernyaev, did not behave as Mother Theresa in the CA. Not sure if any of them had been vocally opposing the genocide against Circassians, etc. So they were actually not too different from the hated “west” with its highly selective choice of the “victims” and “savages”. They did manage to create ideological hysteria but this hysteria led to the war only because AII was a weakling and a rather confused one. The whole thing could easily end up with the volunteer doctors (again, the Serbs were seemingly worthier than their Russian patients because this was a “noble cause” and performing everyday duties was a routine about which you can’t feel good), etc.
  2. The people who sucked up to the propaganda and, unlike the noisy leaders, went to fight for the “brethren”. Some of these volunteers, like Garshin, had been quite disappointed by the attitudes on the ground.

Egypt appears to be heading down the same path as the OTL, except possible even more at risk of starvation given the ACW boom lasted longer and maybe slightly less slavery. With a out of touch wannbe reformist autocratic high class with their foreign pals, a army that is divided between nationalists officers to focused on scheming and intrigue and soldiers that are neglected, abused (being sold into slavery by your officers was a very risk in Sudan) focused on not starving casue of lack of pay and ignored and angry majority it's not going to end well.
Situation ITTL is lousy, no questions. But keep in mind that in OTL the cotton cultivation kept growing at least into the late XIX: after all, Egypt was producing a high quality long staple cotton. So the degree of a lousiness is more or less comparable. The problem you pointed to was/is serious but to a great degree it was (in OTL) caused by the foolishness of those on the top: you want to rule in peace, you have to share wealth and power strategically, which is not too difficult. In OTL the troublesome elements had been ignored until it was too late.


The question I suppose is how the powers deal with it, sure the Ottomans probably would be satisfied with a lot of parties dealing with but some Islamic PR could be useful so they might try and gain that if they can, Russia would make sure the Ottoman's don't come out looking weak and Britain and France have serious contentious issues over the spoils.

All parties though can agree on the Egyptian people are a bit disturbing to see politically active and would much rather have someone keep them quiet and deal with Egypt through them than with the masses.
The “masses” are always being dealt with through the leaders so the task is to convince these leaders to cooperate willingly before too much of a furniture is broken. In OTL the French and Brits did things the hard way because it looked simpler but how about Zahme dressur - soft taming methods? 😉
 
The Big Mess
284. The Big Mess [1]
The East is a subtle matter”
‘White sun of a desert’
Egypt is not only an integral part of the empire, but its heart, part of the most important in the eyes of Muslims.”
“Europe is taking into its own hands a solution to the issue related to the internal management of one part of the Empire.”

Sultan Abdul Hamid II​
Her Majesty's Government has serious objections to occupy Egypt proper. This occupation will cause protest in both Egypt and Turkey; it will arouse suspicion and envy among other European powers…”
Lord Grenville, January 1882 [2]
“You have fought the battle of all Christendom and history will acknowledge it. May I also venture to say that it has given the Liberal Party a new lease of popularity and power."
Edward Malet [3]
There are no fortifications which would not be breached by a donkey loaded with gold”
Genghis Khan​

1880s
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Egypt. Mohamed Tewfik Pasha (Arabic: محمد توفيق باشا Muḥammad Tawfīq Bāshā) after replacing his father as a Khedive in 1879 found himself in a really lousy situation on pretty much each and every account, except for his personal wealth, of course. Egypt’s finances had been handled by the Dual Control Commission and by the Law of Liquidation (July 1880), the annual revenues were divided into two approximately equal portions, one of which was assigned to the Caisse de la Dette, the other to the Egyptian government. Which, after considerable part of the government’s share had been (mis)spent on various projects, was leaving too few money for what really mattered, payments to the troops. Taking into an account that most of the personages of Tewfik’s government, and even himself, were not clinical idiots, the only plausible explanation is that those who really were in charge, commissioners Major Evelyn Baring, Mr. Auckland Colvin, and Monsieur Ernest de Blignières, simply did not give a damn about what is going on and were interested only in returning the debt (in which at least Baring was personally financially interested) and enforcing “westernization” upon the natives who were obviously too dumb to figure out themselves what was good for them.

The obvious result was a widely spread discontent in the army aggravated by the earlier humiliations in Ethiopia. Besides the purely financial aspect, there were additional ethnic and religious aspects: the top positions had been routinely held either by the Turks, Circassians or by the “Westerners”, who BTW were in charge of the operations against Ethiopia and screwed things up. Ahmed ʿUrābī’ (Ourabi, Orabi) was one of the first fellahs who managed to get the officer’s rank. Actually, most of the blame fall on W.W.Loring who urged to destroy the field fortifications and then taunted the Egyptian commanders into an idiotic attack in which they perished while he remained alive. So, on the top of everything else, it was demonstrated that the western methods and leadership are not as great as imagined.

Of course, the foreign commissioners openly ruling the country were considered a source of all evils and on a wider scale most of the population did not like the fact that Khedive is subordinated to the infidels.
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Tension surfaced when a petition was presented in January 1881 by ʿUrābī’ and two of his colleagues against the war minister, ʿUthmān Rifqī, a Circassian. They were arrested and court-martialed but were later set free by mutineers. Tawfīq gave in, dismissed Rifqī, and appointed Maḥmud Sāmī al-Bārūdī Pasha, one of ʿUrābī’s allies, as war minister.
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But the ʿUrābists still feared reprisals; a military demonstration in Cairo in September 1881 forced Tawfīq to appoint a new ministry under Sharīf and to convene a new Assembly. But the alliance between the officers and Sharīf was uneasy.

At that point neither of the “interested parties” had a clear idea how to proceed. The only thing about which both British and French governments had been clear was that they did not want Egypt to be ruled by a government hostile to their interests.

Britain was vitally interested in the security of Suez Canal but for a while Gladstone’s government had been hesitant about how far it should go to protect this vital interests. Eventually, the hawkish wing of the Liberal Party prevailed in expectation that the public loves demonstration of the British military force. As the French ambassador to London wrote, Britain considered four possible options for intervention in Egypt: "purely English", English-French, Anglo-Italian-French and European. Unfortunately, the ambassador did not specify what the British understood by European intervention, but noted that the head of the Foreign office Lord Grenville preferred the third option with the participation of Italy. Italy's possible participation in the intervention was desirable for Britain for two reasons: on the one hand, Italy acted as a kind of counterweight to France in North Africa, on the other hand, the more powers would participate in the occupation, the less significant the expenses of Great Britain itself would be. Which, of course, France liked the least.

In France idea of the military action was not popular across a broad political spectrum. There were already protests against allocation of 6 millions francs for “operation” in Tunis but at least it was it was presented as a defense of the border of Algeria, the most important French colony in Africa. As for Egypt, there was virtually no immediate threat to the French territories, and in addition, serious sums have already been spent on the Tunisian operation. Therefore, it is not surprising that the claim of the Department of Colonial Affairs to allocate 9.5 million francs was rejected. So why the French diplomacy was active? It was trying to prevent the Ottoman occupation of Egypt.

Ottoman Empire. Abdul Hamid II, who was a formal sovereign of Egypt, was seriously contemplating an idea of changing de jure status to de facto. One of the tools for the revival of Turkish influence in the Maghreb and Egypt was the so-called pan-Islamic Movement.
Originating in the mid 1800s in Central Asia, the pan-Islamist movement aimed to resist the British in Afghanistan and India and the Russians in Turkestan. Initially, the movement was led by Khan Kokanda Hudayar, who declared jihad against the British and Russians. Kokand had been subdued but the movement survived. Representatives of the movement counted Sultan Abdul Hamid, the supreme caliph and spiritual head of the Muslim world, among their enemies, and were very hostile to Turkish rule. In turn, Abdul Hamid wisely decided that the only way to protect the caliphate in Constantinople from attacks by the pan-Islamist movement was to lead it. To do this, it was necessary to rally the Muslim world against the main enemy - the West, which carried out active expansion. Despite financial dependence on European powers, Abdul Hamid sought to pursue an active policy in North Africa, in particular, using the religious factor and dislike of the local population towards European colonizers. The establishment of his power over Egypt, of course, was unwelcomed to European powers in terms of both economic (loss of control over Egypt's finances) and strategic (Turkey's dominance in the Suez zone). In addition, the transition of one of the largest Arab countries in Africa under Turkish control would be the first step towards the rise of the pan-Islamist movement, and this was of serious concern. Ambassador of France to London P. Chalemel-Lecourt wrote that "the states will be dissatisfied and alarmed if the task of restoring order in Egypt is entrusted to Turkey".

The establishment of French dominance over Tunisia was a clear example of the expansionism of the West, against which the ideas of the pan-Islamist movement were directed, and any aggression by the European powers only strengthened the authority of the Sultan in the Arab world. As a source close to Abdul Hamid noted, "events in Tunisia have produced a very successful result, as now the sympathies of the Arab people belong entirely to His Majesty."

The French ambassador to Constantinople wrote about the project that was discussed by the Sultan and his associates. According to this plan, Egypt was supposed to be divided into three vilayets: Lower Egypt would come under the rule of Sheriff Pasha, Middle Egypt would be left to Khedive Tewfik, and Upper Egypt would be ruled by the protégé of Porte. Such rumors further convinced France of the aggressive intentions of the Porte. If Khedivate was abolished, Andul Hamid would be the only legitimate ruler in Egypt. However, mission of the Sultan’s representative to Egypt was not successful and now the Abdul Hamid was declaring that the crisis can be resolved by the peaceful means.

Russia, like other European powers, had its economic and trade interests related to the Suez Canal in Egypt. However, Russian diplomacy considered the Egyptian question rather as a local dispute between the countries concerned. Thus, Minister of Foreign Affairs N. K Girs wrote to Count Orlov in June 1882: "As for us, we would not complain if the difficulties in the East were concentrated in Africa, where our interests are not directly affected."

And here goes the only grown up on the scene. In June 1882, Bismarck convinced the French that they should not go to a joint intervention with the British, because in the end they would still remain at a loss, insisted on the need for Turkish occupation, and also offered to "buy" Arab Pasha for a "a tidy sum" and thus resolve the issue.

Of course, “a tidy sum” would not have to be a vulgar transfer of a bag of gold but the French diplomats had enough of a brain power to work out the necessary details. The Turkish part was not appreciated because once in it would be close to impossible to get Sultan’s troops out and, islamic or not, the Turks were not popular in Egypt. But, other than these details, the Iron Chancellor proved once more than he is a genius. As if by that time anybody had any doubts.

Egypt. It was announced to the Egyptian troops that France is going to allocate a part of its share of the debt’s payoff to pay their salary. While the ranks and file had been celebrating, it was discretely suggested to the leaders that they can much better attend to the needs of a nation by directly participating in its major institutions like Suez Canal Company, Egyptian land credit company (Le Credit foncier egyptien) and Sugar Enterprises of Egypt (Sucreries) as their shareholders. Of course, as far as a general public is involved, the foreign ministers have to go (none of them had been French, anyway) and there must be strong guarantees that Suez Canal keeps functioning (you don’t want the British intervention, don’t you?) and properties of the foreign entrepreneurs should not be violated. In a view of the expected British military intervention, perhaps it would be better to keep the Khedive in his place (but not necessarily in power) and to allow a temporary French military presence in the canal zone. Well, joined French-Egyptian presence. Or even a broader international presence of the friendly countries (after all, you are buying the grain from Russia and guns from Germany so they are your friends). With the alternative being a joined French-British invasion this proposal (both discreet and public parts of it) looked as the best case scenario and it did not took a big effort to convince Russian and German governments that a token naval and military presence in Alexandria will be appreciated.
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The happy troops marched to their barracks; whatever bad feelings they could have about the foreigners, these feeling (at least for now) did not apply to the French. The Assembly of Delegates swung toward the ʿUrābists with a full approval of the Khedive who now adopted some of the popular slogans and even regained some popularity.
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Sharīf resigned and al-Bārūdī became premier with ʿUrābī as war minister. The plans for the massive land and wealth confiscations had been postponed until the indefinite future but a considerable number of the Turkish and Circassian officers had been fired, which made army even happier. The bread prices in Cairo and Alexandria got lower (“within the reasonable limits”). Khedive’s position was not threatened. There were no disturbances of any kind and the Europeans got back to their businesses. Just in case, the streets had been patrolled by the troops.
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When the British government finally braced itself for ordering a two-prong invasion, there was a strongly-worded message from France, Germany, Russia and Ottoman Empire urging it to reconsider because things were clearly under control and there was no need in the military action. However, with the friendly international squadron temporarily overseeing situation in Alexandria and Suez Canal (even the US and Italy sent their ships), arrival of a couple British ships definitely will be a nice show of the cooperation and solidarity, etc.

And when everybody was ready to relax, the disturbing news came from the South. In Sudan a bunch of the religious fanatics called “mahdists” just slaughtered to a man Egyptian force of 4,000….
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[1] I had no intention to spend more time than absolutely necessary on the events in Africa in general and Egypt specifically (and not that I know too much about the subject) but it looks like this topic generates more interest than I expected so for a while I’ll deviate from the main track. Don’t blame me for the results. 😪
[2] Retroactive translation by GT, authenticity is anything but guaranteed. 😉
[3] The British consul general in Egypt in 1882, to a member of the Gladstone Cabinet after the British invasion of Egypt.
 
And when everybody was ready to relax, the disturbing news came from the South. In Sudan a bunch of the religious fanatics called “mahdists” just slaughtered to a man Egyptian force of 4,000….
Will the French intervene on the behalf of the Egyptians against the Mahdi? Seems like a natural course of action given how much they've invested into the Suez Canal and the Egyptian government.

This probably means Charles George Gordon does not die a horrible death at Khartoum.
 
Will the French intervene on the behalf of the Egyptians against the Mahdi? Seems like a natural course of action given how much they've invested into the Suez Canal and the Egyptian government.
What’s natural in retaining a losing part of an enterprise? Sudan has nothing to do with the Canal and Egyptian government has a lot other things on its plate.
This probably means Charles George Gordon does not die a horrible death at Khartoum.
If you insist, I’ll gladly invent some other unpleasant way for him to die. 😜
 
If you insist, I’ll gladly invent some other unpleasant way for him to die. 😜
Just him dying of old age (and alone) would've been unpleasant for Gordon. He was a thrill-seeker with a death wish, IIRC.

What’s natural in retaining a losing part of an enterprise? Sudan has nothing to do with the Canal and Egyptian government has a lot other things on its plate.
Hopefully, the Mahdists don't cause too much of a problem for Egypt and the rest of the European powers then. Can't imagine the Egyptians putting up much of a fight to retain their Sudanese holdings without European intervention.
 
Just him dying of old age (and alone) would've been unpleasant for Gordon. He was a thrill-seeker with a death wish, IIRC.
You remained me a joke about masochist and sadist being imprisoned in the same cell.
Masochist: Torture me, make me suffer!
Sadist: I will not!

Not being a sadist (unlike you), I’ll try to provide him some some thrilling demise to make him happy. If I don’t forget. Perhaps to let him go back to China….

Hopefully, the Mahdists don't cause too much of a problem for Egypt and the rest of the European powers then. Can't imagine the Egyptians putting up much of a fight to retain their Sudanese holdings without European intervention.
The mahdists were truly dangerous on their home turf: the enemy forces had been coming to them exhausted and, without knowledge of the terrain, they were easy to ambush. Now, if they tried to push outside of their home region, situation is reversed and advantage in weaponry starts playing. Judging by the fact that they pretty much remained in Sudan for a decade or more, they were fully aware of that fact.

But perhaps I’ll manage to bring the Brits into the picture by the way of …er… “dentistry Russian style”. If this happens, you’ll figure out what it means, 😜
 
Well this situation appears to ending the ''best'' sure it's not paradise but Egypt so far has avoided a lot of suffering with this unhappy compromise. Truly they have such good ''friends''

Though on the topic of the Mahdists I wonder if we could see them being allowed to persists, after all they rather nicely provide a buffer between Egypt's expansionist policies that partly lead to this crises while at the same time being to great a force for Ethiopia to beat them on their home turf. The Mahdists also don't get along with the Ottomans curtailing the pan Islamism scheme for a while. Italy also would like given it means in theory they can colonize them maybe one day (very much doubt it but hope springs eternal).

They are also thankfully no major threat to Egypt proper, frankly the Mahdists could spend decades building up Sudan and still lack the resources for a major war given the amount of issues in their territory.
 
And when everybody was ready to relax, the disturbing news came from the South. In Sudan a bunch of the religious fanatics called “mahdists” just slaughtered to a man Egyptian force of 4,000….
I think at this point better put egyptian war efforts on some "pause" and try to thoroughly reform their army. Or else their military with arrogant foreign specialists and overambitious and undertrained officers will march from one defeat to another.
Or even a broader international presence of the friendly countries (after all, you are buying the grain from Russia and guns from Germany so they are your friends).
Well. at least forces of reason win and Egypt evade fate of foreign military intervention.
 
Well this situation appears to ending the ''best'' sure it's not paradise but Egypt so far has avoided a lot of suffering with this unhappy compromise. Truly they have such good ''friends''
Realistically, these “friends” were as good as it gets: Egypt avoids a foreign intervention or being placed under the direct Ottoman control, which would be probably even worse. Of course, the nationalists in power also was not an ideal option because they had very few positive ideas besides kicking out non-Egyptians. But what would be a really good option which was not going to involve the ASBs?

Of course, the French ITTL are mostly protecting their own interests but at least they are not enforcing their own administration and are going to keep Khedive from getting into the expensive adventures.


Though on the topic of the Mahdists I wonder if we could see them being allowed to persists, after all they rather nicely provide a buffer between Egypt's expansionist policies that partly lead to this crises while at the same time being to great a force for Ethiopia to beat them on their home turf. The Mahdists also don't get along with the Ottomans curtailing the pan Islamism scheme for a while. Italy also would like given it means in theory they can colonize them maybe one day (very much doubt it but hope springs eternal).

They are also thankfully no major threat to Egypt proper, frankly the Mahdists could spend decades building up Sudan and still lack the resources for a major war given the amount of issues in their territory.
In OTL the Mahdists were left alone for quite a while and we can leave it this way. At that time Sudan is of a little practical value except for the tax squeezing schemas (which led to the Mahdism). Well, of course unless someone wants to have his possessions looking nice on a map.
 
Of course, the French ITTL are mostly protecting their own interests but at least they are not enforcing their own administration and are going to keep Khedive from getting into the expensive adventures.

Still wonder why Ottomans didn't try to reclaim at least it's Asian territories.
 
Still wonder why Ottomans didn't try to reclaim at least it's Asian territories.
I think that would mean infringement of French interests. Plus, crisis end rather soon, which under rudimentary logistics of Middle East in 19 century exclude quick military action with fait accompli.
 
I think that would mean infringement of French interests. Plus, crisis end rather soon, which under rudimentary logistics of Middle East in 19 century exclude quick military action with fait accompli.

Makes sense, especially since French just guaranteed that Tripolia will remain within Ottoman hands. As long as Egypt remains formally within Ottoman empire and acknowledges Sultan as Caliph there probably won't be enough reason for causing unnecessary tensions.

Plus there's the lack of support from other great powers (by this I mean traditional and important allies like Russia ).
 
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I think at this point better put egyptian war efforts on some "pause" and try to thoroughly reform their army. Or else their military with arrogant foreign specialists and overambitious and undertrained officers will march from one defeat to another.

Just think a little bit deeper. If, by a wave of a magic wand their army is strong, the country leaders will be tempted to embark upon some risky adventures which, no matter how they’ll end, will be costly (neither Sudan nor Ethiopia were the good sources of a revenue). Then, to reform Egypt’s army from its OTL state one would inevitably need the foreign instructors with all following alienation and disappointment problems: by 1880s the army was trained by these specialists and the results are well-known: it was beaten by the Ethiopians, Sudanese and the Brits (I’m not going to go into the modern experiences).

Wouldn’t it be better for everybody involved if the army remained in its present state, doing some updates of its weaponry and drill from time to time but generally remaining mostly a “guardian of a regime” rather than something for the aggressive adventures? This way everybody is happy:
  • Army size is being kept within the reasonable limits and the government can pay salaries on a regular basis keeping the soldiers and low-rank officers happy. And a little bit fancier uniforms are definitely improving the army spirit (see objections to AIII’s simplification of the Russian uniforms).
  • The higher ranks are not obstructed in their promotions by the foreigners and are not humiliated by a need to serve under their command. OTOH, if they are not suffering from mania grandiosa (as was more than once the case in the 2nd half of the XX century), they understand that with what they have the risky adventures are better ti be avoided.
  • The government is happy because a regularly paid army and properly arranged promotions and state awards are making the military coups less likely.
  • A smaller army and no expensive adventures mean lesser tax burden so the population is also happy.
  • The foreign powers do not expect the excessively dirty tricks from the regime and are not trying to implement the OTL setup. Some tariff changes (within the reasonable limits) are OK and the foreign investments keep coming because the country is secure. And these investments usually mean jobs for the locals.
😉


Well. at least forces of reason win and Egypt evade fate of foreign military intervention.
Yes. And among other things, it at least somewhat diminishes OTL nationalist movement.
 
Makes sense, especially since French just guaranteed that Tripolia will remain within Ottoman hands. As long as Egypt remains formally within Ottoman empire and acknowledges Sultan as Caliph there probably won't be enough reason for causing unnecessary tensions.

Indeed. Especially, taking into an account that crushing the Balkan revolts does not completely solve Abdul Hamid’s domestic problems: these areas had to be made functional within OE and this is not easy even if he decides to get back to the constitution of 1876.


Plus there's the lack of support from other great powers (by this I mean traditional and important allies like Russia ).
Nobody needs a trouble which does not produce any profit. Of course, Bismarck in the midst of a crisis proposed the Ottoman occupation of Egypt but this was not going logically well with his proposal to bribe Urabi (it would be “either or”) and it seems that his main idea was to prevent the British (or British-French) invasion.
 
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