No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[Kriss]

Emperor Alexander III shot him.

For a second I was hoping the Emperor shot:

You are not the only one, it would have made for a mighty demonstration and rebuttal of Machine gun failing to kill a Bear.

 

[alexmilman]

288. Domestic affairs

“There's nothing more drooling and shabbier than Russian atheism and Orthodoxy.”
A.K.Tolstoy
“Constitution - wife of Grand Duke Constantine”
Unknown political genius, December 1812
“There is no need in the foreign examples: Russia, due to its great size, may itself serve as an example to others.”
“I know only one educational system … without burdening the youths with excessive knowledge prepare them to execution of the corders of their superiors.”
Saltykov-Schedrin, “Modern Idyl”
“Whatever you say, the highest command will be made out of everything.”
“Listen to everyone, there's nothing shameful about it, but listen only to yourself and your conscience.”
Alexander III
“Each person has a mental horizon. When this horizon narrows to a single point, it is called ‘point of view’”
Stanisław Jerzy Lec,​

Russia 1885 - 86
Announcement of the coming fundamental changes in Russian political system caused a huge noice across the whole political spectrum but while a liberal part of it was split between the numerous factions and groups, most of them not having any political platform beyond a wish to be elected into the Duma, the “ideological” part of the conservatives was united in their rejection of the whole idea. Of course, each of the conservative ideologists was attending to his own aspect of the subject by they were converging on the main point.

• Aksakov (the main Slavophile). “The West hates Russia and Eastern Europe in general”.

• Yuriev, picking up where Aksakov left it, “You [Aksakov] proved to the Russian national consciousness beyond any doubt that … the Russian people can’t go hand by hand with Petersburg” meaning that the government is too “westernized” to reflect whatever is passing for the national interests and that Russia must fully disengage itself from the “West” and its influences.
• Simultaneously with the desire to rethink Russia's role in the international arena, in the conservative circles, attempts to find the "hidden truth" in an environment as far as possible removed from a spoiled Europeanized society - among the "ordinary people" - are increasing.

• The motive of the open contrast between the "tops" and "bottoms" is constantly repeated, in particular, in Pobedonostsev's letters. Of course, Pobedonostsev assumed that only one conservative prophet, namely himself, is needed and did not fully approve of Aksakov who also was making claims to this position. His own “official” position that the hidden truth is open only to the “little people” not burdened by the unnecessary knowledge and wrong ideas.

• Following his train of thoughts Katkov was insisting that any form of the “representation” would be just blocking the true needs of the people by putting itself between people and a monarch who is a true and only defender of their interests.

Up to that point, AIII could ideologically agree with at least Pobedonostsev and Katkov. The Slavophilic ranting was both impractical in its idea of a complete separation from the “west” and also looked as a dangerous attempt to cause a discord between government (aka, the Emperor) and his subjects so Aksakov, Yuriev and few others had been secretly placed under observation of certain department (which, after practically whipping out the Narodniks, had plenty of free time and resources).

However, there was a huge problem which prevented AIII to adopt Pobedonostsev’s and Katkov’s position. As far as their criticism of the elective system was concerned, they were doing just fine but on a “positive” side of their platform there was a huge problem. Who would be doing routine work of administering the country?

Intelligentsia, especially its not-noble segment and above all people of "free professions", were considered by conservatives as the main bearer of destructive trends. Katkov: “Where the living forces appear in our native life, miracles are performed there, the grace of God is felt there. but as soon as our intelligentsia speaks and begins to act, we fall.” As far as the “free professions” were involved, AIII could agree . Of course, the educated people in the technical areas and medicine were absolutely different issue and could not be replaced by the uneducated lower classes regardless the issue of a national spirit. And he liked Tchaikovsky’s ballets.

But negativism did not stop there. With the same eagerness the conservatives had been criticizing bureaucracy. The bureaucracy was criticized in their reasoning as a dead force, detached from the living sources of folk conservatism and therefore capable of - no less than the intelligentsia - subjecting the traditional formed social order to disastrous reform on the basis of abstract ideas alien to the precepts of national history. In addition, the bureaucracy, acting within the framework of formal institutions, on the basis of certain norms and regulations, was able to paralyze the freedom of action of individual talented leaders and, most importantly, to de facto limit and even distort the will of the Tsar himself. To be fair, this often was the case even during the reign of NI but the alternative was administrative anarchy. What do they want? Novgorodian veche? It did not end well for Novgorod.

However, in such a situation, the question arose: if the system of power in the country had to remain autocratic, not bound by any form of permanent representation, and the bureaucracy could not be counted on, then how did the governance process be organized? The answer to this question were reasonings and recommendations that offered the monarch to implement a system of governance that can be defined as a "living" autocracy, whatever it was supposed to mean.

The most coherent was the option of the "living" autocracy promoted by Pobedonostsev. According to the famous conservative, the core of the system of government in Russia was to be the personal, unlimited power of the tsar, designed to permeate all floors and levels of the state apparatus, acting as its main driving force. "All the secret of the Russian order and prosperity - at the top, in the person of the supreme power...Your work will push everyone to work, your relaxation and luxury will fill the whole earth with relaxation and luxury."

The monarch and his trusted adviser (in whose role the Pobedonostsev, of course, saw himself) had to work continuously, "give themselves to work that burns a person", directly solving a variety of management issues and personally communicating with people - both with subjects of different classes and with employees of government structures.

The monarch, in addition to personal participation in matters of governance, has to be in spiritual unity with the people - to rely on the church, to maintain the traditional religious order of the community, to take care of the moral health of the people and to enlightenment in the right spirit consistent with historical traditions. The religious part was fine with AIII, who was deeply religious, but an idea of directly administering all affairs of a state as big as Russian Empire was plain absurd and reliance upon the “ground level” conservative initiative (from whom? the uneducated peasants? Or from Pobedonostsev & Co?) did not sound practical either. OTOH, isn’t a proposed Duma just an appropriate place for the conservatives to demonstrate their initiative in an orderly fashion? So far, by arguing against it, they were leaving the field open for those whom they consider as a dangerous element so where is their wisdom?

Personal observation. IMO, Pobedonostsev & Co suffered from having a point of view (see definition above), while their liberal opponents had a mental horizon so wide that they could not handle it in a meaningful way. As a result, both groups were pretty much useless (at best). It was pretty much as a semi-official definition of my alma mater regardless specialists graduated from it. Depending upon specific faculty, they were divided into two categories: those who knew nothing about everything and those who knew everything about nothing. 😉


A little bit of exotic. Strange as it may sound, all that ideological turmoil moved upon a forefront of the Russian foreign politics … Ethiopia. Supporters of the “Ethiopian direction” spent a considerable effort trying to figure out and explain the practical benefits of the Russian penetration into this remote country and failed miserably because there were none. The whole issue had been motivated not by a practicality but by the spiritually-ideological factors. From the conservatives perspective, Russia was keenly interested in finding new "little brothers", and specifically those who would remind Russians in terms of their national character, especially the best part of them - the common people. Abyssinians, thanks to centuries of isolation from the world, allegedly preserved the qualities that made them look like Russian commoners, but separated them from "spoiled" Europeans - patriarchal simplicity of morals (with a bright self-esteem), piety, humility before the highest religious principles, devotion to the charters of the church.

Ethiopia, like other African countries, was emphasized by Russian contemporaries, is being attacked by Europe for its apparent savagery. Meanwhile, here, under the outer cover of poverty and lack of ostentatious brilliance, spiritual treasures that Europe will envy are probably hidden. "Who knows, maybe in Abyssin theological education, so little known to us, lurk the shadows of this [ancient] teaching, the shadows of Origen and Clement, the shadows of Athanasius and Cyril?" asked the famous church writer, priest John Vukolov, emphasizing that Abysinia converted to Christianity from the Patriarchate of Alexandria, which was known in the Ecumenical Councils as one of the main centers of theological thought. Europeans, wrote A. K Bulatovich, treat Abyssinia as a backward country, and meanwhile she professed the religion of Christ at a time when most European peoples have not yet emerged from a state of savagery. Common in the works of Russian authors was the motive of the inner spiritual affinity of Russians and Ethiopians. It relied largely on the ideas of the unity of the two countries - in fact erroneous, but widespread in Russia, including in official circles, and the powers are extremely firmly, despite convincing rebuttals from experts.

In general, Ethiopia in the works of Russian authors is a fairly accurate replica of Russia of the pre-Moscow and Moscow period. In a distant African country, as once in medieval Russia, kings and nobles, imbued with prayerful mood, cared for the religious and moral well-being of the people, monasteries acted as influential centers of social and cultural life.

The clergy enjoyed authority in the eyes of the flock, and the mass of the population, fervently devoted to the church, strictly performed all the prescribed rites.

Just use a little bit of white paint, put the pants on them and you’ll get the legendary times of Vladimir The Red Sun.

To the general picture had been added the gushing descriptions of the Russian spiritual missions visiting Ethiopia.

Whatever were his personal feelings, and he was not immune from avalanche of the propaganda (especially in the area about which he had no clue), AIII could not fully ignore the overwhelming hysteria. The Church missions were fine but he ordered to send a competent mission to collect all types of geographic, ethnographic, military, economic and other information and report the findings.


Labor laws. In a meantime, while the State Council was discussing the rules and arrangements for the future elections which were supposed to happen in 1886, it made sense to beat the liberals to one of their favorite subjects, the labor laws. The first package regulating work of the minors already was in place so 2 more laws had been adopted.

• The 1st, issued in March 1885, forbade night shifts for the women and teenagers employed on the industrial plants.
• The 2nd, issued in June 1886, contained a wide range of the rules regulating relations between the employers and employees including:
  • Rules of hiring, firing, abiding to the contract and explicit cases (for each side) when contract can be legally cancelled.
  • Regulations regarding payment and worker’s right to sue if they were violated.
  • Employer’s obligation to provide a free medical help.
  • Management’s liability for the behavior which led to the public disturbances.
  • Workers’ responsibility for initiating strike and for resulting acts of violence or property destruction.

The 2nd law also increased the numbers of the Factory Inspectors responsible for overseeing enforcement of the labor laws. Of course, not all areas had been covered at once but the laws were expected to remove a big part of an area for potential election demagoguery by the left-leaning candidates. This was, of course, a very optimistic expectation but nonetheless these laws were an important step forward.

Unpleasant news. Two new ironclad ordered by China in Germany had been completed and sailed to their destination. Each of them had 4 305 mm newest breechloading guns in 2 barbettes [1], 2 150 mm guns and 5 smaller guns. Russia did not have on the Pacific nothing heavier than lightly armored cruiser. Something had to be done fast…

____
[1] Also defined as “barbette-turret” because they were somewhere in between.

 

[alexmilman]

Those are some mighty butterflies.

For a second I was hoping the Emperor shot:

Oops. But quite agree with the sentiment. A damage done in OTL by this person and those of his “school” fully deserved execution by a weapon he hated. 😜

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

The expedition in Ethiopia makes me think that Russia might get a interest in doing archeology, maybe Egypt and the holy land next?

 

[Kriss]

The expedition in Ethiopia makes me think that Russia might get a interest in doing archeology, maybe Egypt and the holy land next?

That would be quite interesting development.

Unpleasant news. Two new ironclad ordered by China in Germany had been completed and sailed to their destination. Each of them had 4 305 mm newest breechloading guns in 2 barbettes [1], 2 150 mm guns and 5 smaller guns. Russia did not have on the Pacific nothing heavier than lightly armored cruiser. Something had to be done fast…

Well it's either building its own Pacific fleet (which doesn't makes much sense), or a mutually profitable alliance with Japan to counter this threat.

Meiji restoration happened 1868 (potentially little later due to weaker US presence in the Pacific) , but i believe that Japan would be quite excited about it as their seeked mutual acknowledgment from other great powers.

Otherwise Russia is still stronger on the ground and due to the nature of Qing modernization it's likely that fleet remains splattered and loyal to local landlords .

 

[alexmilman]

That would be quite interesting development.

ITTL there are some commercial interests in Egypt but, it being within the French sphere of interesting, anything more than archeology and ethnography is going to lead to unpleasant conflict under the unfavorable conditions. In the Holy Land Russia is being present since the early XIX but this presence is purely religious: custody of some “holy places”. No practical reason for making it into something greater (in OTL NI tried and got the CW) - as a potential market the region is lousy and being “French zone” since at least XVIII century.

Well it's either building its own Pacific fleet (whichdoesn'tmakes much sense), or a mutually profitable alliance with Japan to counter this threat.

In OTL Russia tried the 1st option combined with the alienation of Japan. The result is known. OTOH, being at the mercy of Japan is not much better than being at the mercy of China and the mutual profit is good when both sides are of equal strength and there is no “temptation”.

Meiji restoration happened 1868 (potentially little later due to weaker US presence in the Pacific) , but i believe that Japan would be quite excited about it as their seeked mutual acknowledgment from other great powers.

This was the case in OTL until the big screwup of the Russian foreign policy. OTOH, a new Japan was ambitious and expansionistic and nobody could tell for sure a complete scope of these ambitions and how would they shape up. Also, before the first China-Japan War it was anybody’s guess who is going to prevail so a complete reliance upon Japan may be risky.

Otherwise Russia is still stronger on the ground and due to the nature of Qing modernization it's likely that fleet remains splattered and loyal to local landlords .

The problem is that Russia is still weak on the Far East. TransSib is just completed, the area is still underpopulated and infrastructure, including Vladivostok fortifications, is underdeveloped so a major permanent military presence in the region is still not an solution and neither is mobilization of the regional Cossacks (too few). Formally, Chinese army is big and in the recent Sino-French conflict the French, while being victorious on the sea, had to retreat on land (of course, this was a minor conflict with the French being greatly outnumbered but OTOH their main opponent was the Black Flag Army - a bandit force, leftover of the Taiping war ). The Chinese main regular army was numerous, had a lot of the modern weapons and was trained by the German and other foreign instructors so at the moment there was no way to tell how it will perform. Appearance of two modern battleships totaling 8 12 inch latest Krupp guns (and a new cruiser, also built by the Germans) could not be easily shrugged off: if anything, they could cause a lot of damage to still under-protected Vladivostok and the ships stationed there. Ditto for other ports with a potential possibility of disrupting communications with Alaska if the Chinese order few modern cruisers.

Then, where is the guarantee that Japanese are not going to do the same? They surely have reasonable interest in controlling the islands in the region and who can tell what their priorities are going to be. Friendship in diplomacy is a tricky issue.

Size of the Russian Pacific squadron could be debated but the problem, as in OTL, was in a need to review the whole Russian naval concept and, besides essentially coastal defense fleet, have the heavy battleships capable of sailing all the way to the Pacific: the shipbuilding capacities of the Far East in OTL would not allow local construction of the big ships and ITTL it still will take time to bring them on such a level.

 

[alexmilman]

289. Naval affairs

“The situation in the Pacific has changed markedly in recent years thanks to the active role that China seeks to appropriate.”
Protocol of the Special Meeting [1], St-Petersburg, January - February 1887
"China is a grand stage for scandals."
Margaret Thatcher.
“China knew printing, artillery, aeronautics, chloroform long before us. But while in Europe the discovery immediately comes to life, develops and works real miracles, in China it remains in its infancy and remains dead. China is a bank with an embryo conserved in it."
Victor Hugo, "The Man Who Laughs"
"I devoted twenty-five years of my life to studying China and, nevertheless, the only thing I have firmly learned is that the world knows nothing about China."
Vsevolod Ivanov​

Far East. 1870s - 1886.

Russia-China.The late 1870s and early 1880s were marked by a certain stabilization of the domestic political situation of the Chinese Empire. The Muslim rebellions in its western part were suppressed and at the same time, a number of measures were taken to strengthen government influence in Manchuria. In the summer of 1877, together with Russian representatives, the border from the mouth of the Tumen River to the village of Kozakevicheva (Казакевичево on the map below) was re-demarcated.

In 1878, all decrees and regulations prohibiting or restricting the resettlement of Chinese to Manchuria were repealed, Chinese settlers were equalized in legal status with Manchus, and civil administration was gradually introduced in the north-eastern provinces. The Qing authorities encouraged the settlement of areas along the border with the Amur region and the Ussuriysk region. Land was alloted to settlers of border areas free of charge, they were exempt from paying taxes for 5 years. Special benefits were enjoyed by Chinese colonists in areas adjacent to the Ussuriysk region: here, in addition to a free plot of land, each family received free agricultural tools, livestock, and loan for the construction of a house. At the same time, highways were being built in Manchuria, troops were stationed along the border and in 1881 an arsenal, including the weapons and gunpowder producing plants, was founded. In 1886, the Qing authorities raised the issue of remarcation of the Russian-Chinese border in the area of Posyet Bay and the mouth of the Tumen River.

Background of a dispute. In 1874 a regional head of the Russian administration established settlement of few Korean migrants’ families on a site, which due to the poor marking of the border line and the lack of accurate maps of the area, this village, called Savelovka, turned out to be located on Chinese territory. For several years, the Qing authorities have not made any claims about this, but the situation subsequently changed. The general strengthening of Qing regime prompted Beijing to a demarsh, the main purpose of which was to ensure China's access to the Sea of Japan through the mouth of the Tumen River. In May-June 1886, negotiations on a new clarification of the border were held in the Novokievsky village. On June 22 (July 5), a general protocol was signed, and in June - October - protocols for the description of the border by sections. Chinese representatives were unable to implement the basic requirements (including the expansion of their territory to the Sea of Japan). At the same time, a number of sites - including near the village of Savelovka - have changed the border in favor of China.

Vladivostok. The visit of Chinese warships to Vladivostok in 1886 was directly related to the events around Savelovka. He was supposed to impress the Russian authorities and demonstrate the new military capabilities of the Qing Empire. By the mid-1880s, thanks to the efforts of Li Hongzhang, the northern grouping of the Qing Navy, or the Beiyang Fleet, was a serious force and consisted of 16 modern battleships of English and German construction. Li Hongzhang considered it necessary to use the fleet in the interests of foreign policy. Of course, at the moment the trump card were two battleships built in Germany: neither Russian Pacific squadron nor Japanese Navy had ships of that class.

Formally, at that moment Beiyang Fleet was the biggest naval power in the region and Li Hongzhang wanted to use it as a tool for promoting Qing’s foreign policy. The Chinese fleet carried out its first foreign policy action against Japan - in 1886, 6 ships of the Beiyang Fleet (battleships Dingyuan and Zhenyuan, cruisers Yanwei, Chaoyong, Jiyuan and the training ship Weiyuan) arrived in Japan, where they made a great impression on the public. However, the external militancy of the Chinese battleships was criticized by the commander of the Japanese Navy base in Kure Heihachiro Togo. After a visit to the ships of the Chinese squadron, he made a statement that the Chinese fleet could not withstand even the first blow, as during his stay on the battleship Dingyuan, Chinese sailors calmly dried their underwear on the barrels of the main caliber guns. "The story with underpants" (砲上晾褲) quickly became the property of the world community and severely damaged the image of China.

After visiting Japan Beiyang Fleet sailed with a “visit of friendship” to Vladivostok (in the middle of the border talks). At that time, there were ships of the Pacific squadron under the command of Rear Admiral A. A. Kornilov - armored cruiser Vladimir Monomakh, clippers Dzhigit and Bulletin. The Siberian flotilla was represented in Vladivostok by the clipper "Abrek", the gunboats "Sivuch" and "Nerpa", as well as the unarmed steamer "Amur". In addition, the steamers of the Volunteer Fleet "Yaroslavl" and "Vladivostok" were located in the port. Only "Vladimir Monomakh" was a force comparable to Chinese cruisers (but not battleships). The visit involved numerous banquets on which the heads of the Russian administration and Chinese border authorities had been present. There were assurances of a mutual love and friendship, salutes, illumination, etc. On July 25th the Chinese squadron left.

Political results of that visit was contrary to the expected. The head of the Russian Naval Ministry, vice-admiral Shestakov, who was at the time n Vladivostok with the inspection visit and, as the highest-ranking naval person present, was presiding on the banquet and toasted the health of the Qing Emperor (with a proper 21 gun salute), wrote to the Amur Governor-General Baron A. N. Korf: "I went here with the intention of reducing everything here as much as possible; now... I came to the conclusion that it is necessary not to reduce the fleet here, but, on the contrary, the entire active fleet of the Baltic Sea should be transferred to the Pacific Ocean."
Well, of course, he was going (more than) a little bit into the area of impracticality by at least two main reasons:

• Following the existing naval doctrine the main task of the Baltic Fleet was the coastal defense and, accordingly, most of its capital ships were built for operations in the Baltic Sea, not for the ocean-going. While having a good armor and heavy artillery, the battleships had been relatively low (not to many problems with the big oceanic waves on the Baltic) and had a limited range.
• There was not, yet, infrastructure on the Far East capable of supporting even a big part of the Baltic Fleet.

What to do? The new situation warranted serious changes in the whole Russian naval policy. Existing one required concentration on the coastal defenses of the Baltic and Black seas combined with having a number of the fast long range cruisers, armored and not, for operations on the Mediterranean but mostly for acting on the ocean routes to damage shipping of the “anticipated (perfidious) opponent” [2]. The anticipated task defined armament of these cruisers: they were intended to act first and foremost against the ships lacking armor and combined few 203mm and or 152mm “heavy” guns and numerous guns of the lesser calibers (75, 47, 37mm). For example, already mentioned “Vladimir Monomakh” (5,754 tons) had 4 203/22 calibers (the subsequent ships of that class had 203/30 [3] and 203/35 [4]), 12 152/28 (later ships 152/35), 4 87mm and 10 37 mm while the 1st class cruiser “Rossia” 12,576 tons) had 4 203/45, 16 152/45 [5], 12 75/50, 20 47mm and 16 37mm. The numbers, especially of the small calibers, varied from ship to ship.

As long as the main task of these ships was hunting for the merchant ships there was an argument about “excessive power” of the newest guns of the main caliber but recently strategic situation changed:

• With the finally settled borders in the CA relations with Britain noticeably improved thus making a direct military conflict less likely.
• China’s raise as a naval power, combined with more aggressive foreign policy and improved army, required ability to bring the Pacific naval force at least to the level of a “restraining factor”.
• While so far Russian-Japanese relations were quite friendly and of a visible mutual interest, the growing Japanese military and naval buildup could not be simply overlooked and, again, having “restraining factor” style fleet on the Pacific would be helpful for preserving the status quo.

In short term, Russia could send to the Pacific a number of the modern armored and “protected” cruisers and some smaller ships. While, of course, the 203 mm (8 inch) guns were not a match to the 12 inch guns of the newest Chinese battleships in a close encounter, the longer range and higher rate of fire of the newest guns combined with a higher speed (up to 19.7knots vs 14.5) of the Russian cruisers would allow to at least cause a significant damage to the battleships from a reasonably safe distance.

Number of the 47 and 37mm guns was decreased to be replaced with the few 75mm/50 guns. According to calculations, their armor-piercing projectile with an initial speed of 820 m/s was capable of punching up to 114 mm of steel armor at a distance of 5 cables (925 meters). With 12 these guns “Rossia” was capable of making 110 shots per minute.

To get a proper perspective, both Chinese battleships had a citadel protecting the artillery cellars, command post, main caliber, boiler rooms and engine rooms. It was steel-iron style and its thickness was 8 inches (203 mm). The armored belt had 152 - 356 mm but most of the rest was protected by just 25.4 mm. Dingyuan and Zhenyuan had 305/25 with the initial shell speed 535 m/sec. And they had only 50 shells per main caliber gun (most of these shells, being produced in Chinese arsenal, contained a limited amount of the explosive and, as was demonstrated during war with Japan, part of even that amount was stolen and sold; but these and other “details” were not known in 1886).

Taking into an account penetrating capacity of the long barrel 152 and 203 guns, while these cruisers hardly could sunk a battleship (getting close enough for the maximum penetration potential they’d risk a hit from 12 inch guns), they could cause a very considerable amount of damage from a reasonably safe distance. And, of course, they could easily sunk any of the Chinese cruisers.

In a longer term, Russia should start building the bigger and heavier armored ocean-going cruisers with the speed over 18 knots and main caliber 10 inches. Practicality of having on the Pacific the big battleships with the main caliber 12 inches had been under investigation but, taking into an account that the main goal remained protection of the Russian coasts and waters, and that construction of the fortifications of Vladivostok was going on and the new long range guns of the coastal defense had been arriving in the numbers allowing to install them in Petropavlovsk on Kamchatka and Paul’s Harbor (Kodiak) in Alaska, there were serious doubts.

Japan.
In July 1882, Iwakura Tomomi submitted a document entitled "Opions on the expansion of the Navy" to the daijō-kan, which claimed that a strong navy was necessary to maintain Japan's security. Continuing his argument, Iwakura suggested that internal uprisings are no longer Japan's main military problem and that naval affairs should take precedence over the problems of the army; a strong fleet was more important than a significant army to preserve the Japanese state. Moreover, he justified that a large modern fleet would have additional potential benefits, attracting Japan to greater international prestige and recognition, since the naval forces are internationally recognized signs of strength and status. Iwakura also suggested that the Meiji government could support the growth of the Navy by increasing taxes on tobacco, sake and soybeans. In May 1883, the government approved a plan that, when completed, will add 32 warships in eight years worth just over 26 million yen.

However, foreign advances in the field of naval technology increased the cost of purchasing large components of the modern fleet, so that by 1885 the overexpenditure jeopardized the entire plan of 1883. Moreover, rising costs coupled with reduced domestic tax revenues, increased concern and political tensions in Japan regarding financing the expansion of the Navy. In 1883, two large warships were ordered at British shipyards. They belonged to the class of protected ships - had an armored deck but no armored belt.

Naniwa and Takachiho weighed 3,650 tons. They were able to reach speeds of up to 18 knots (33 km / h; 21 miles per hour) and were protected by deck armor from 54 to 76 mm (from 2 to 3 inches) and had two 260 mm (10 inches) Krupp guns. Marine architect Saso Sachu designed them based on a class of Elswick-class protected cruisers, but with excellent characteristics. Unable to resist the Chinese fleet with only two modern cruisers, Japan resorted to the help of France to build a large modern fleet that could defeat the upcoming conflict. The French, thanks to their «Jeune École », had an excellent reputation in the area of the fast cruisers and torpedo boats, which were strengthened by the naval success against China in 1883-85. In 1885, the leading French naval engineer Emil Bertin was hired for four years to strengthen the Japanese fleet and supervise the construction of the Kure and Sasebo arsenals. In total, Bertin supervised the construction of more than 20 units. They helped create the first real modern Japanese Navy. This allowed Japan to achieve skill in the construction of large units, as some of the ships were imported, and some others were built domestically on the Yokosuka arsenal.

The main force were 3 cruisers: 4700-ton Matsushima and Itsukushima, built in France, and Hashidate, built in Yokosuka. Each of them had a single main caliber cannon, 320 mm (13 inches) Canet gun which could fire 450-kg armor-piercing or 350-kg explosive shells at an effective range of 8,000 metres (8,700 yd). The maximum rate of fire was two rounds per hour, and the ship carried 60 round. In addition they had numerous small caliber guns (12 4.7 inch, 6 6-pounders and 11 3-pounders) and 4 torpedo tubes. Their top speed was 16.5 knots.
The design eventually proved impractical, as the recoil from the huge cannon was too much for a vessel of such small displacement, and its reloading time was impractically long; however, the Matsushima-class cruisers served their purpose well against the poorly equipped and poorly led Imperial Chinese Beiyang Fleet.
Then, there were smaller cruisers, some other smaller ships and torpedo boats.

Russia-Japan. Japan already demonstrated expansionistic interests and their main target was Korea, which had been vassal of China. On January 15, 1876, the Japanese fleet under the command of Kuroda Kiyotaki arrived on the shores of Korea. On February 26 of the same year, a peace treaty was signed between Japan and Korea, under which Japanese ships received the right to sail free navigation in the territorial waters of Korea, and, in the future, opened two additional ports (in addition The Japanese received the right to move deep into Korea at a distance of 10 li from the coast. Soon similar treaties were signed by Korea with the United States, Italy, Russia, Germany and France.
In 1884 there was pro-Japanese uprising in Seul suppressed by a majority of the population. As a result, Japanese had been kicked out, Japanese army invaded but next year it was withdrawn by an agreement with China by which both sides agreed not to invade without mutual consultations. Japan got considerable economic influence in the South but in the North China retained prevailing position.

In Russia, for a while, there was a discussion regarding the regional interests. The expansionist party was arguing for an aggressive Far East policy including expansion both into Manchuria and Korea. However, the reports regarding the demographic situation in Vladivostok region [6] poured a cold water on the hot heads: even the existing Chinese and, to the lesser degree, Korean settlers had been a problem in a newly-acquired area with a small Russian population and expansion was going to make that situation even worse and Russian control even more difficult.
Japanese control of the whole Korea, providing there will be a satisfactory trade treaty, looked as a better ROI and, if it is going to happen, China is going to be weakened and, as a result, a potential pressure upon the Russian border area will diminish. Purchasing capacities of the Korean population had been quite limited so from the Russian perspective Korea represented interest in two very specific (and somewhat related) aspects:

• Agricultural supplies for the Primorie Region.
• Controlled legal immigration of the Korean families and individual workers. They usually were eager to apply for the Russian citizenship, assimilated well and proved to be good farmers and a reasonably effective (much more than Chinese) labor force in the mines, construction and industrial plants. Presently, the Korean government, supported by China, was restricting immigration and on a regular base requested return of those who managed to flee to Russia illegally. If Japanese would be able and willing to take control of the process and guarantee the legal immigration of the Koreans in the numbers not posing “demographic threat” to the region, this would be just fine.

Of course, the arrangement will have to include some Russian trade with Korea but it already existed unofficially: the Korean peasants who lived near the border were routinely selling their agricultural produce and buying the Russian manufactured goods. Legalization of that trade would be appreciated.

As far as the direct Russian-Japanese trade was involved, finishing of the TranSib added a new dimension to it.

• Traditionally, Japan was exporting from Hokkaido, all types of agricultural products, construction materials and coal. With the development of Sakhalin and growing coal extraction in Alaska, the coal imports into Russian Pacific region had been steadily decreasing. Russia was traditionally exporting to Japan various sea products and leather.
• Now the coastal region was connected with the industrial region of the Eastern Siberia and new metallurgic center had been growing near Khabarovsk based upon combination of the local natural resources and supplies brought from Siberia. As a result, the growing volumes of iron and steel had been added to the Russian exports and the same goes for the woolens and textiles coming from the western parts of the Russian Empire. OTOH, TransSib opened “road” for the Japanese silk and some other products into the European Russia.

Certain level of the technological and military cooperation was already going on for a while even if both had been rather restricted: Russia did not have extra shipbuilding capacities to handle significant foreign orders without impediment of its own needs and the general, even if not spelled out, policy was not to arm the potential enemies. Well, at least not with the modern weaponry. On their side, Japanese preferred services of the French, and Brits in the naval area and Germans in military: all of them had recent reputation. So the cooperation boiled down to the traditional friendly visits (the Russian merchant and warships sailing between the Russian Black and Baltic seas and Pacific ports had been making routine stops in the Japanese ports and the the Japanese had been frequenting Vladivostok).

So far there was no serious contradiction in interests and mutual diplomatic understanding regarding how to benefit at somebody else’s expense was seemingly within a reach.

Russia. Completion of TransSib did not change overnight demographic and economic situation pf the East Siberia and Pacific coast. However, the state sponsored resettlement program, easier and cheaper communications and heavy investments in the local infrastructure and industry had been gradually producing the results in the Eastern Siberia, which was connected to the European Russia few years earlier. General population growth there combined with a railroad link to Dzungaria, allowed to to form 2 new army corps which meant a fast addition of 60,000 to the troops which in the case of mobilization could be engaged in the Far East before more are arriving from the West.

Squadron of 3 armored (1st class), 3 protected cruisers and smaller ships had been moved to Vladivostok and construction of more powerful armored cruisers with 10 inch guns started.

_________
[. 1] Present: Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ministers of War and Navy, Amur Governor-General, etc.
[2] This was OTL policy so don’t tell me that it was foolish: I’m just a messenger. 😜
[3] 203-mm/30 artillery systems had the ability to "act successfully at close distances" and against armor "thickness of 6 dm [152 mm]". The latter property gave the Russian cruiser a real opportunity to "fight not only all non-armored vessels of foreign fleets, but also with battleships built before the 1870s”.
[4] 203 and 152 mm guns with a barrel of 35 calibers had been effective against improved steel-iron armor which appeared in 1880s. The new 203-mm/35 gun had "a penetrating capacity almost equal to the punching capacity of 11-dm [280-mm] Krupp guns". At a distance of 10 kb provided penetration of 285 and 200 mm of steel-iron armor, respectively
[5] They had a penetrating capacity 1.4 times greater than the barrels of 35 calibers. Shell’s initial speed was 900 m/sec and a range up to 70 cables. 152mm shell was penetrating 450mm of the steel-iron armor at 5 cables. Dingyuan and Zhenyuan had 305/25 with the initial shell speed 535 m/sec
[6] see #277

 

[Kriss]

Regarding the ITTL Baltic fleet. How does it fare compared to its otl counterpart with a lot smaller Baltic coast? And against ITTL Black Sea fleet? Given that there was no CW Russia should have Black sea fleet and given good relations with the Ottomans , plus a stake in Suez they should be able to navigate it far easier.

I believe that making the trip from Black sea to the Russian far east should be far easier then from Baltic if they have strong Naval presence there?

 

[Dragonboy]

Great to See Russia making progress

 

[alexmilman]

Regarding the ITTL Baltic fleet. How does it fare compared to its otl counterpart with a lot smaller Baltic coast? And against ITTL Black Sea fleet? Given that there was no CW Russia should have Black sea fleet and given good relations with the Ottomans , plus a stake in Suez they should be able to navigate it far easier.

I believe that making the trip from Black sea to the Russian far east should be far easier then from Baltic if they have strong Naval presence there?

Good question to which there are two answers :

1st, I simply quoted OTL sentence. 😉

2nd, ITTL Black Sea fleet is meaningful by the reasons you listed: the Med is still something of a powder keg with too many conflicting interests. Besides stake in Suez, Russia still has a naval base on Corfu and, together with the Ottomans, protects independence of the Septinsular Republic, which is located as a pain in the Greek posterior with a potential interest for the Italians and Austrians. The Ottoman Navy is big but getting obsolete and Abdul Hamid does not fully trust its commanders. The Greeks are restless and unpredictable. The Austrians keep naval buildup to the unclear purpose. Italians still have ambitious plans regarding Tripoli and Eritrea. Britain maintains strong presence on the Med to balance France and Russia and so are France and Russia to balance Britain. Germany is a newly-appearing factor on the Med and actively courting the Ottomans, which are already a center of the complicated British, French and Russian interests and have regular problems with their vassal states.

The Baltic Sea is quiet, being a settled Russian-German-Swedish-Danish lake with the well-protected entries so the cruisers, unlike ships of a “coastal defense”, do not serve any practical purpose besides making the ceremonial visits and thus can be easily moved elsewhere while there is a peace. There are still some in the North (Kola naval base) with a much more open access to the ocean routes. Besides, St-Petersburg area still has the big wharves and the biggest naval artillery and engine plants and construction of the new ships never stops.

 

[dunHozzie]

Would Sweden be willing to sell the Baltic provinces? I'm not sure if Sweden is not better suited to focus on OTL Swedish/Finnish territory and they seem to be sliding in obscurity....

 

[alexmilman]

Would Sweden be willing to sell the Baltic provinces? I'm not sure if Sweden is not better suited to focus on OTL Swedish/Finnish territory and they seem to be sliding in obscurity....

Why would they? By that time the provinces probably would be integrated at least to the same degree as they were within the Russian Empire and they should generate some revenues (Riga, Revel and Memel are still important transit ports). OTOH, who would be the lucky buyer? Neither Sweden nor Russia are interested in the German expansion on the Baltic even if it is a friendly state. Russia under AIII at least pretends to be run upon “Russia for the Russians” platform so why would there be a wish to get areas which are distinctly not Russian and used to be governed by the different rules? It is much more convenient to have them as friendly “transit” areas with the reasonable import/export tariffs and don’t bother with everything else.
One more bidder is the PLC but (a) it would not have money and (b) nobody (as in “Sweden, Russia, German”) wants it to have these territories.

 

[Kriss]

Would Sweden be willing to sell the Baltic provinces? I'm not sure if Sweden is not better suited to focus on OTL Swedish/Finnish territory and they seem to be sliding in obscurity....

It's important to note that beside these territories being properly integrated and profitable Sweden while not a great power on the level off Russia /British /France and Germany is still a strong middle power and selling, or loss of these territories would be seen as a loss of prestige. ITTL Sweden didn't want to back away in the face of Prussia and even when it was selling Bremen it did it for another territory around Danzig (with Russian support and mediation) and I don't think that any potential buyer has something Sweden would want, or would want to give up for Baltic provinces.

On subject of Sweden being middle power, in context of ITTL Europe its quite prestigious position on its own given more equal distribution of power across Europe and that position may be enchanted if union with Denmark/Norway is achieved.

Regarding Russia entertaining the idea, well it would probably have to force Sweden to purchase it and potentially break its alliance with Sweden (technically such thing would be possible in cooperation with Germany, in exchange for supporting Germany in "purchasing" its own part of the pie so to say). Of course doing that would mean partition of traditional ally with who Russia has understanding in the Baltic sea and making the sea into the Russo - German lake ( Russia has a lot less influence on Germany than on Sweden and Germany has a lot more agency to impose its own will).

From geopolitical perspective Sweden having wast Baltic coast and being dependent/friendly to Russia is advantage for Russia as it has a lot more friendly ports and extra Naval power to turn to.

 

[alexmilman]

It's important to note that beside these territories being properly integrated and profitable Sweden while not a great power on the level off Russia /British /France and Germany is still a strong middle power and selling, or loss of these territories would be seen as a loss of prestige. ITTL Sweden didn't want to back away in the face of Prussia and even when it was selling Bremen it did it for another territory around Danzig (with Russian support and mediation) and I don't think that any potential buyer has something Sweden would want, or would want to give up for Baltic provinces.

On subject of Sweden being middle power, in context of ITTL Europe its quite prestigious position on its own given more equal distribution of power across Europe and that position may be enchanted if union with Denmark/Norway is achieved.

Regarding Russia entertaining the idea, well it would probably have to force Sweden to purchase it and potentially break its alliance with Sweden (technically such thing would be possible in cooperation with Germany, in exchange for supporting Germany in "purchasing" its own part of the pie so to say). Of course doing that would mean partition of traditional ally with who Russia has understanding in the Baltic sea and making the sea into the Russo - German lake ( Russia has a lot less influence on Germany than on Sweden and Germany has a lot more agency to impose its own will).

From geopolitical perspective Sweden having wast Baltic coast and being dependent/friendly to Russia is advantage for Russia as it has a lot more friendly ports and extra Naval power to turn to.

Indeed. Militarily, politically and economically the “4 players” situation on the Baltic suits all participants and there is no clear need to change status quo because any reshuffling disturbs the balance with unpredictable results. Russia would not be happy to rely on the German ports for its exports and imports. Germany would not like Russia right on its backyard (friendship or no friendship). Why would Sweden or Denmark want a bigger German presence on the Baltic?

 

[alexmilman]

290. Years of Jeune Ecole

“To destroy England’s fleet would be to humble her pride, but the way to make war on England is to sink the ships that bring the English their bread, meat and cotton and enable their workers to earn their living.”
Vice Admiral Aube [1]
“Aube mistakenly felt that technology made moral factors irrelevant.”
Dr. Milan Vego [2]
“The Jeune École did not represent mainstream naval thought and should be interpreted as a temporary sidetrack resulting from the introduction of, and opportunities afforded by, new technologies in an austere fiscal environment.”
James J. Tritten [3]​

In 1870s - 80s the international relations could be roughly described as following:

• France and Britain - after France got ahead of Britain in Egypt downgraded from “love affair” to “we just good friends”.
• France and Russia - a long term “beautiful friendship” but no serenades under the balcony and other things (like military and naval treaties) which would make it a love affair.
• Britain and Russia - improved from just saying “Hello” to “Hello, how are you?” and keep slowly improving after Persia was peacefully “divided”; to a great degree subject to geographic research of the Tian Shan, Himalayas, etc.
• Ottoman Empire - normal relations with all of the above but, due to the geographic and historic reasons, Russia is slightly “more equal” than two other countries. Let’s say, RE and OE have some mutual interests while UK and France have interests in OE.

All of the above did not prevent the naval personages and diplomats of the UK, France and Russia from planning the military actions against each other (to be fair, if they did not, there could be questions about them being needed and financed)etOr rather British - against (presumably joined) France and Russia and France and Russia (each of them on individual bases due to an absence of any naval or military treaty) against Britain. Of course, the existing and assumed “spheres of interest” also had been involved and at least in one case, the Ottoman Empire, this made the whole schema really confusing. Not to be forgotten, there was also Italy somewhere in the middle, mostly geographically but also because it was actively building up its own navy and had ambitious, if not necessarily realistic, plans for turning itself into a major colonial power. So far, out of the major European powers Austria and Germany looked as the islands of a naval sanity:

• Austria was building up its navy to oppose Italy.
• Germany was considering the main task of its navy to be a coastal defense with a secondary goal being to have some fast warships to protect communications with its colonies and, most important, help to keep the coastal areas of these colonies under control.

Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman navy had been numerous but it hardly was an organized military force. The ships, mostly built in 1860s, had been getting obsolete technologically. After several ships, demanding payment of the detainee's salary, threatened to shell Constantinople, Sultan Abdul Hamid, horrified by the sight of his fleet gathered in Golden Horn Bay, ordered the most important parts of cars and guns to be removed from the ships and hid them in his palace. To a much greater degree he relied upon the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As a result, the while forts in the Dardanelles were kept in a state of relative combat readiness, the forts of the Bosphorus remained in a state close to a ruin. Which was a matter of the British concern: the Russians could easily get into the Med but the Royal Navy would have serious problems getting into the Black Sea or taking possession of Constantinople.

The new battleships had many unarmored parts vulnerable to high-explosive shells. Designed in such a way as to be able to fire from the main caliber into the nose and stern, they could only fire from usually few medium-caliber guns on board. Barbets opened from above were vulnerable to high angle fire. Finally, well-placed minefields could complicate the actions of battleships under the fire of the forts to the limit. Then, ability of a modern navy to destroy even the primitive fortifications had been recently tested in Tunis. The French, when bombing the Sfax, fired a 2002 shells, but then found that in the sense of destruction, the defenses were able to achieve very little. By the mid-1880s, thanks to smokeless gunpowder, and improved fortification, artillery, and mine action, the entire British fleet would hardly have been able to break through impromptu land and sea defenses. Especially if the Ottomans are going to be backed by the Russians.

The meaningful part of this scary scenario (why would it should be considered to startvwith), never was given a serious consideration.

France. Relations with Britain were good but, traditionally, the British wast superiority in the battleships was a concern for France. Its main ports had been heavily fortified but this was not enough. Some French naval officers began to look toward new concepts of warfare and technology. They were inspired by the success during the American Civil War of the Confederate raider Alabama. As a leading scholar in the field recounts, “in a twenty-one-month cruise covering much of the globe, this comparatively weak steamer with auxiliary sail power took more than sixty prizes.” Experience of the Confederate raiders had enormous influence on naval thinkers of the time. Britain in particular appeared to be a prime target for such a strategy of commercial warfare, having become, since the elimination of its Corn Laws, highly dependent on maritime commerce for food and raw materials. In 1869 Captain Baron Louis-Antoine- Richild Grivel, the ideological forefather of the Jeune École, wrote a book describing how new technologies and inventions could help make commerce raiding (guerre de course) an effective anti-British strategy. The orthodox view among French naval officers at that time was holding that only the clash of arms at sea could be decisive; this, Grivel argued, was not the right approach for France to take against England.

These ideas were taken up by Vice Admiral Aube, who would become the leader of a new school of naval thought. In a series of articles written in the 1870s, he began developing a naval strategy based on a new concept of warfare—that the object of war was to do the greatest possible harm to the enemy. This, wrote Aube, was to be accomplished by destroying the enemy’s national wealth; the destruction of the enemy’s battle fleet was by itself unimportant. The real wealth of Britain, specifically, was in its commerce, much of which was carried by merchant ships, so the prime aim of naval warfare against it was to destroy its merchant ships with commerce-raiding cruisers and torpedo boats. This implied an unrestricted naval warfare (an idea the Brits had been strongly protested against) in which torpedo boats would have to play a big role. Another new idea that appealed to Aube was the division of labor, which suggested it was a bad idea to put too much of the fleet’s power into a relatively small number of large battleships. A promising idea, he believed, was that the key to success in a future war would be a sudden, coordinated attack by a large number of small, torpedo- equipped ships and larger cruisers against the enemy’s commercial shipping—a blow that, along with bombardment of coastal cities, would create panic and social collapse. The Navy split in two over these radical ideas; Aube’s followers became known as the new, or young, school, while old-school traditionalists—the Vielle École, or to one German scholar, the Alte Schule—advocated continuing empha- sis on sea battle and blockade. The struggle between the young and old schools was fought primarily in the press and parliament. Politicians were attracted to Aube’s ideas because they offered significant economies. The Jeune École attracted support from politically minded journalists, as well as from younger officers who had been embittered against their seniors by the slow rates of advancement as the French Navy transitioned from a large fleet of sailing ships to a smaller one dominated by ironclads.
Soon enough it was found that the torpedo boats could be used only near the coast but it was also found that a torpedo boat could fire a tor- pedo at a moving battleship. The concept had been tested at the maneuvers held in May and June 1886. A Jeune École–style fleet of some twenty torpedo boats, supported by three cruisers and a coastal-defense battleship acting as mother ship, faced an “attacking” fleet that included eight battleships. It was to be a battle of microbes against giants, wherein many small, specialized boats would take on ironclads according to the division- of-labor principle. The torpedo boats failed to prevent the battleships from “bombarding” the port of Toulon, but when the attackers established a block- ade, the boats were judged to have “sunk” most of them—an important result, as a fundamental part of Aube’s theory held that close blockade by a large fleet could be made impossible. In December 1886 Aube settled on a revised, three-pronged strategy: offense in the Mediterranean, with the entire battle fleet concentrated at Toulon against Italy; defense in the Channel; and commercial warfare in the Atlantic.
Two months after becoming minister, Aube opened an official competition for designs for a submarine, a process that ultimately led to the construction of France’s first viable underwater craft, the Gymnote.

Aube left an office in 1887 . Most of his projects were not completed but his ideas produced a huge domino effect well beyond France and lasted after his death. One of the negative effects was that, due to the constant experimentations France for the following years had “fleet of samples” until some kind of a middle platform had been developed between followers of Jeune École and traditionalists. As a result, France got fleet containing both battleships and cruisers, prepared to conduct either a traditional war on the high seas or a campaign against commerce. Between 1886 and 1890 France built:

• 8 torpedo cruisers
• 32 protected cruisers
• 1 armored cruiser (below)

Intermission (temptation is too great to resist 😂) In 1890s France produced some of the weirdest battleships ever made. There was a group of five more or less similar but not identical ships Charles Martel, Jauréguiberry, Bouvet, Masséna and Carnot. The group had been sometimes described as "chavirables" (prone to capsizing). The common feature of their construction was a marked tumblehome to give their artillery located in sponsons a wide range of fire. The immediate result of this design was a narrow space within the ship’s body with a need to put a lot of things on a top of the desk with a resulting high superstructures, so the sharp turns had been somewhat problematic due to the risk of a “turn over-keel”. On one of them the “battle mast” was 30 meters high and required installation of an electric elevator. Then, the numerous guns of all possible calibers were producing problems with finding the range, etc. But the guns themselves were very good: look at the long barrels (the Brits on Royal Sovereign class had the main guns 343mm/32 calibers, weight 67-69 tons, with a range of 11 km, the French 305mm/45 calibers, weight 47.5 tons, with a range of 12 km).

Certain similarity with the medieval castles was not missed. 😉

However, with all these peculiarities, the French navy was quite advanced technologically. They had triple-expansion steam engine, very good artillery and effective shells.

Britain. Of course, the Brits had been caring about the Straits but even more so about their own interests. In terms of the number of ships, the RN was more than equal to the combined forces of the French and Russians - but in terms of armor, guns, shells, tactics and readiness for war, it was far behind the revived French fleet. Without exaggerating, it could be said that it was "not a fleet, but a collection of heterogeneous battleships". So far the naval construction policy was to built a bigger version of any new foreign model. The docks were clogged with ships - both unfinished and just waiting for the installation of artillery. International success of the French artillery and other equipment (the U.S. has adopted the French artillery design, manufacturing and testing system) was a signal that something must be done fast. A big factor was an extensive propaganda of Jeune École which blew the French threat out of a proportion.

In 1889 Britain adopted the Naval Defense Act which required spending £21,500,000 over five years toward fleet expansion: ten battleships (8 first class and two second class), forty-two cruisers and eighteen torpedo gunboats. All the first class battleships had to be of the same class: over 14,000 tons, over 17 knots, the main caliber 4 13.5 inch/32 caliber guns in 2 barbettes one forward and one aft of the superstructure.

The cruisers had been a separate issue “If one "Alabama" ... was able to cause damage of 50,000,000 pounds, what losses can be caused to our commerce by half a dozen, a dozen, two dozen French... cruisers released upon the vast maritime trade in England?” Sir Geoffrey Hornby said to the London Chamber of Commerce that England would need 140 cruisers and expressed fears that it would be almost impossible to block French raiders in Brest. The approved plan was to build 42 cruisers:

• Nine first-rank Edgar-class protected cruisers (displacement - 7,300 tons, speed - 20 knots), were to pursue enemy raiders on trade routes on the high seas.

• Thirty-three second-rank cruisers of Pallas, Apollo and Astrea classes, with a displacement of about 3,500 tons, and a speed of about 20 knots were built to protect English trade in English waters - from Aube’s cruisers centered in Brest.

Two new related acts added £10,000,000. These acts provided for the strengthening of long-distance coal stations - mainly from the Russians - and the construction of additional coastal fortifications in England - against the French. The old coastal defense, consisting of numerous stone forts with heavy guns - including 100 tons - was completely unsuitable for protection against shelling carried out by high-speed gunboats offered by Jeune Ecole. These forts were either replaced or supported by mobile batteries, mines and floating batteries. Coast guard stations founded during the Armada were converted into a real network of observation posts similar to that developed by the continental powers; however, in 1891, 300 of the 680 stations were at a distance of four to thirty-five miles from the nearest telegraph - and there was no direct communication between the stations at all.
Intermission: During the maneuvers of 1900, it took Admiral Sir Harry H.Rowson three quarters of an hour to wake up employees of one of the stations, and a whole night to send a telegram... but at least new equipment was installed at the stations. 😂

In 1888 the RN executed big-scale maneuvers the purpose of which was to figure out possibility of a close blockade of the enemy’s ports. Up to that time such a possibility was never in doubt [4]. The maneuvers involved the defending fleet (i.e. British) and the attacking fleet (i.e. French). The superiority of the first over the second reflected the superiority of the British fleet over the French one. The defenders blocked the attackers in ports representing Brest and Cherbourg. The “French” commander, Sir George Tryon, simply waited until the opponent was forced to leave to its ports for the repairs and a need to load more coal. After most of the blockading squadron left, 3 “French” cruisers got out of “Cherbourg” and the “Brits” could not even assess how many ships got out; now there was a possibility that these ships and those in “Brest” may place blockading squadron between two fires. The blockade was lifted and the British fleet took positions in the Channel. Meanwhile, the "French", who remained uncaught engaged in the destruction of trade and shelling the shore. The official report recognized that Trion's actions to exterminate trade and shell coastal cities are possible in reality. "There is little doubt that any power in the war with Great Britain will take all possible measures to weaken the enemy. We do not know a way more effective than to make the enemy feel the gravity of war by destroying his property and damaging his wallet."

The conclusions were as following:

• Britain needs 5:3 advantage in the battleships comparing to a potential enemy.
• Advantage in cruisers had to be at least 2:1.
• “If suitable anchorages... in the immediate vicinity of enemy bases" are found, and the light forces of the British fleet will be able to monitor the enemy, it will be possible to reduce the ratio of the number of battleships to 4 to 3.

The protection of English trade was also a huge problem. Now not so much the luxury goods were carried by sea as what was necessary for the country's industry. This change took place with amazing speed - in 1851 Britain still partially supported itself, in 1885 it was completely dependent on external supplies. Even assuming that the Russian raiders can be handled, the French “problem” remained unsolvable. Sir Charles Dilke, an expert in the imperial defense, wrote:

“According to unanimous opinion of maritime experts, it will be either difficult or impossible to protect our trade from a sudden attack by the French, who will be assisted by another powerful maritime power. All our means will be useless to prevent such a sudden attack..”

One of the proposed solutions (admittedly, not a very good one) was to transfer, in the case of war, the British commercial fleet under a neutral flag in expectation that an enemy would not dare to declare the food as a military contraband. Which, of course, assumed that the enemy is going to stick to the international law that was adopted in 1875 on the British insistence and clearly benefitted British trade. The French already broke it in 1885 by establishing “rice blockade” during their war with China and remained opponent of any limitations.

So, Admiral Aube forced Britain to spend enormous amounts of money based mostly upon the theoretical scare linked to a possibility of a new style of war hardly backed up by any serious material threat (the new overly powerful battleships or vastly superior cruisers).

Russia. The last of the British scarecrows credited with a serious ability and willingness to destroy the British colonial trade. Well, with the few armored and protected cruisers of the Baltic Fleet being transferred to the Pacific to protect the Russian possessions and communication lines there and the cruisers of the Black Sea Fleet serving in the shifts on the Eastern Med - Ionian Sea, the scary part amounted to 6 cruisers of the Northern flotilla based at Kola and, here comes the scariest part, 13 fast merchant ships of the Volunteer Fleet, which in the case of war could be armed and sent to the naval routes to hunt the British (or whoever’s) merchant ships. Their planned artillery hardly was powerful enough to attack even the marginally protected coastal objects.

Of course, the new cruisers had been under construction but their number was limited and goals different: while the ideas of Jeune Ecole generated some interest and even limited enthusiasm, Russian Empire was not seriously planning war against Britain, especially the naval one: the obvious reasons were simply absent.


_________
[1] “Father” of Jeune École” - Not to be confused with “Jeune syndrome” (asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy), “Jeune et Jolie” (restaurant in CA), “Jeune Afrique” (a magazine) or something else. 😉
[2] Sounds familiar?
[3] Which, seemingly, means that the “mainstream naval thought” is based upon wasting money without restriction and not fully using the new technologies? Or that mainstream will use the new technologies as an excuse to spend as much money as possible? 😉
[4] Which is kind of strange because Nelson (in OTL) managed to “overlook” the whole Bonaparte’s Egypt expedition, then “lost” Villeneuve's fleet sailing from Toulon in 1805.

 

[Dragonboy]

Great insight on the developments of navys!

 

[alexmilman]

Great insight on the developments of navys!

Thanks. Was surprised myself with what I found and what were the “triggers” for the OTL naval race. I intentionally skipped on Mahan, his theory and influence.

 

[Dragonboy]

Thanks. Was surprised myself with what I found and what were the “triggers” for the OTL naval race. I intentionally skipped on Mahan, his theory and influence.

Excellent work as always!

 

[Aluma]

“To destroy England’s fleet would be to humble her pride

Yes, do it! Show them their ships are made of paper!

...Of course the hard issue is how to do that, as OTL Nappy can attest

I'd personally go with horses on floaties myself, for no matter how much the british prepared they didnt plan for water cavalry

Besides it cant possibly be Sealion if it is being performed by equines

but the way to make war on England is to sink the ships that bring the English their bread, meat and cotton and enable their workers to earn their living

Because that worked so well...

In a series of articles written in the 1870s, he began developing a naval strategy based on a new concept of warfare—that the object of war was to do the greatest possible harm to the enemy.

Roman peace eh?
Just dont complain if the enemy here - roughly 1/4 of the planet - also thinks its a based idea to do total war against you

This, wrote Aube, was to be accomplished by destroying the enemy’s national wealth

Then what can we exploit and plunder? What a monster

Certain similarity with the medieval castles was not missed. 😉

Yay! I want my floatie castles!

 

[Kriss]

Technically it's important to note that Russia doesn't have a big fleet due to the fact that it's trade is still mostly internally focused and current fleet is sufficient for defense needs.

But once Russia establishes trade networks across the world that should change somewhat as no great power will really allow other Great Power to control large part of its economy.