No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[alexmilman]

Yeah, the Swedish cavalry was "light" only in the sense that they did not carry armour and that they rode small horses. They were equipped with buffcoats and cuirasses, but it seems like the cuirasses were pretty quickly discarded before 1702 as they only protected against pistol shots and the mooseleather buffcoat proved quite good at preventing damage from rapiers and sabers. Desipte this "lightness" Swedish cavalry was trained and used as heavy cavalry - to charge with rapiers in a tight plow-like formation. Interestingly, Sweden had two dragoon regiments that were never used as infantry - the only difference between them and the other cavalry was that they carried muskets instead of carbines. There were dragoon units without horses, that were used as light infantry. So two types of dragoons, and neither were used as dragooons.

If Peter wants to throw a glance at Sweden, which should be possible with good Swedo-Russian relations, the Swedish cavalry regiments had a remount farm organisation, where peasants in the regimental area were paid to keep brood studs and mares and their foals until they were old enough to be trained by the army to become war horses. Cavalry officers, that lived on farmsteads in the same area inspected all horses and offered to make them breeding animals if they were suitable - this was usually a very good deal for the peasant, as he could still use the horse for labour, but got paid for keeping it. He just had to cover the cost for the fodder of the foals until they were grown enough to be trained by the army. This gave the peasants an incentive to keep their horses strong and healthy and breed them to be both suitable for work and war.

Sweden also had a couple of state-run remount farms to breed larger war horses for the officers, but they never produced enough horses for all officers. Some officers bought their own, but most seem to have ridden clippers just as their men did.

At Kliszow, the Swedish right wing cavalry was driven back by the Polish Hussars, but the Hussars bounced on the Swedish infantry, and the Swedish cavalry reformed and charged the Hussars and drove them from the field. If theres a similar battle (perhaps earlier, as Karl has no need to go to Narva after dealing with Denmark and thus can cross the Düna earlier) and Peter's observers or volunteers are there, they might take notice that light cavalry can act as heavy cavalry with the right training.

Yes, I’m planning to send the observers and even have one good candidate but let me finish dealing with the boring issues of manufacturing, finances and initial training (before experience of the LNW becomes available). 😂

Now, as far as the Swedish breeding system is involved, it is not quite applicable to the Petrian Russia where most of the peasants are serfs and where the officers have to stay in the army even at the time of peace so I’ll stick to the OTL system of the state and private (nobility owned) remount farms. BTW, you may notice that the Swedish system was somewhat similar to the Russian pre-Petrian system. But Peter was really great in breaking things and this already happened before he adopted “think first” modus operandi.

Of course, the light cavalry can act as the shock troops but, after breaking the existing system, Peter had to start from the scratch and, not without a good reason, he is not quite sure in the cadres (keep in mind that the Russian peasants did not have too much of a “horseback culture”). So the first thing comes first: the people (and horses) have to start with learning to act in the orderly (“regular”) fashion even at the expense of the effectiveness. In OTL the switch to the attacking mode started happening after Kalisz and became a norm after Lesnaya.

 

[Hastings]

I think Denmark's chances they will seize Swedish German possessions even temporarily are very, very low. Denmark-Norway had an army of 35,000, some of which will be in Norway and some of which may be stupidly invading Scania. In OTL, looks like they had about 20,000 in Holstein. The German garrisons of Sweden numbered 10,000 plus a couple thousand from Holstein-Gottorp. Given Swedish quality advantage as late as 1712, it would likely take years to mop that up. Further, the Danes may have had a better navy, but Swedes are going to be able to punch through and send reinforcements eventually and even a few thousand more are going to end up mopping up Jutland. Also if for some reason, the Danes are able to maintain total British 1800-style dominance in the Baltic, Karl can sneak forces to Tallinn and then march them over in a couple months after defeating the Saxons in the equivalent of OTL battle of Riga. That would be a best-case scenario for the Danes as he might decide to mop up the Poles and Saxons first, delaying execution a few years.

The other thing is that the British, Dutch, and Brunswick-Luneburgers are unlikely to change their actions, since Russia was considered a junior, distant member at the start of the conflict. There is also the problem Denmark invaded Holstein-Gottorp which, at least according to Wikipedia, they had guaranteed. In that case Denmark is toast if even just Brunswick-Luneburg joins in, since their Holstein positions started falling apart before the Zealand landings.

I think Augustus and the Danes are likely to go ahead, since they seem to have underestimated Russia's value, and greatly underestimated Karl. It will probably follow a similar course, and by 1706 the Danes will be licking their wounds and a Swedish puppet will rule Poland-Lithuania.

Then the question will be who Karl supports in the War of Spanish Succession. He could rent out his armies, or personally intervene. In 1707, Karl pressured the Habsburgs to make concessions to the Protestants in Silesia. He might do that this time and then join the war against France, whose image in Sweden at the time was not great. Either renting out the German garrisons or directly intervening. On the other hand, not much to gain besides money from the Allies since all Sweden's neighbors are for the Alliance. Maybe Zweibrücken could be expanded with the Weibenburg/Wissembourg area? Or maybe even Haugenau in a decisive victory scenario? If he joins the Alliance in force, not just renting, I could see that resulting in a decisive victory given how much France was struggling by 1709. I would guess he would fight on the Rhine front, which would be bad for the French, since he would be much more energetic than OTL Austrian/German forces were in that area.

Also that would mean Karl would have to deal with another issue he never did OTL, getting married. Sometimes speculated he was homosexual, but not personally convinced. I think he was very busy, liked the army life, and religious so he didn't sleep around. He will always be rushing around given his personality, but if he does get married, could see it being quite successful, given he apparently wanted to marry for personal rather than political reasons, no mistresses, and also seems like a person who might feel duty-bound to treat his wife well.

 

[von Adler]

Also that would mean Karl would have to deal with another issue he never did OTL, getting married. Sometimes speculated he was homosexual, but not personally convinced. I think he was very busy, liked the army life, and religious so he didn't sleep around. He will always be rushing around given his personality, but if he does get married, could see it being quite successful, given he apparently wanted to marry for personal rather than political reasons, no mistresses, and also seems like a person who might feel duty-bound to treat his wife well.

He also has the option to adopt his nephew Karl Fredrik of Holstein-Gottorp if he wishes to remain unmarried - Karl Fredrik was considered a potential heir in 1718. OTL Karl Fredrik married Anna Petrovna and became the father of Karl Peter Ulrich, better known as Peter III and the unlucky husband of Catherine the Great. This is also why Maria Vladimorevna Romanov is the senior member of the House of Vasa.

But we're really derailing @alexmilman 's timeline now. This is about Russia and not about Sweden.

 

[alexmilman]

I think Denmark's chances they will seize Swedish German possessions even temporarily are very, very low. Denmark-Norway had an army of 35,000, some of which will be in Norway and some of which may be stupidly invading Scania. In OTL, looks like they had about 20,000 in Holstein. The German garrisons of Sweden numbered 10,000 plus a couple thousand from Holstein-Gottorp. Given Swedish quality advantage as late as 1712, it would likely take years to mop that up. Further, the Danes may have had a better navy, but Swedes are going to be able to punch through and send reinforcements eventually and even a few thousand more are going to end up mopping up Jutland. Also if for some reason, the Danes are able to maintain total British 1800-style dominance in the Baltic, Karl can sneak forces to Tallinn and then march them over in a couple months after defeating the Saxons in the equivalent of OTL battle of Riga. That would be a best-case scenario for the Danes as he might decide to mop up the Poles and Saxons first, delaying execution a few years.

The other thing is that the British, Dutch, and Brunswick-Luneburgers are unlikely to change their actions, since Russia was considered a junior, distant member at the start of the conflict. There is also the problem Denmark invaded Holstein-Gottorp which, at least according to Wikipedia, they had guaranteed. In that case Denmark is toast if even just Brunswick-Luneburg joins in, since their Holstein positions started falling apart before the Zealand landings.

I think Augustus and the Danes are likely to go ahead, since they seem to have underestimated Russia's value, and greatly underestimated Karl. It will probably follow a similar course, and by 1706 the Danes will be licking their wounds and a Swedish puppet will rule Poland-Lithuania.

Then the question will be who Karl supports in the War of Spanish Succession. He could rent out his armies, or personally intervene. In 1707, Karl pressured the Habsburgs to make concessions to the Protestants in Silesia. He might do that this time and then join the war against France, whose image in Sweden at the time was not great. Either renting out the German garrisons or directly intervening. On the other hand, not much to gain besides money from the Allies since all Sweden's neighbors are for the Alliance. Maybe Zweibrücken could be expanded with the Weibenburg/Wissembourg area? Or maybe even Haugenau in a decisive victory scenario? If he joins the Alliance in force, not just renting, I could see that resulting in a decisive victory given how much France was struggling by 1709. I would guess he would fight on the Rhine front, which would be bad for the French, since he would be much more energetic than OTL Austrian/German forces were in that area.

Also that would mean Karl would have to deal with another issue he never did OTL, getting married. Sometimes speculated he was homosexual, but not personally convinced. I think he was very busy, liked the army life, and religious so he didn't sleep around. He will always be rushing around given his personality, but if he does get married, could see it being quite successful, given he apparently wanted to marry for personal rather than political reasons, no mistresses, and also seems like a person who might feel duty-bound to treat his wife well.

It seems that everybody is getting ahead of the schedule. 😂 Not quite unexpected because I’m intentionally postponing event on a Baltic theater in a favor of a more complete picture of what Peter is doing in preparation to the war. This will definitely involve Sweden and other players in the ways quite different from OTL but it is important to understand what are the Russian resources and goals and how do they fit into the geopolitical framework.

So far my 2c worth regarding direction in which Charles may go (personally or in the terms of renting his army, which IMO is less likely with his personality) in a future that is still 5-6 years away:

1. Alliance with France. Yes, the Franco-Swedish relations during the previous reign(s) had been disappointing because at some point LXIV opted for Brandenburg leaving Swedes disappointed. But situation was considerably more complicated. Colbert recognized importance of Sweden as a supplier of the raw materials needed for the French navy. The reign of Louis XIV became a very active time for trade between France and Sweden. A company for North- ern trade was created in Rouen. A treaty was signed in 1698 in which France granted Swedish ships exemption from taxes. The first Swedish consul was es- tablished in Bordeaux in 1705. Who was the main obstacle in the attempts to increase direct trade between the two countries? The Dutch. After the GNW Marseilles became the centre of distribu- tion for Swedish products in the Mediterranean. After the publication of the Produkplakat in 1724, Swedish ships visited French ports more and more and the merchants’ networks between the two countries were strengthened. France became second biggest importer of the Swedish tar, planks and pitch and until 1770 the biggest supplier of a salt. So there was a considerable even if not decisive Swedish interest in siding with France. https://sjohistoriskasamfundet.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/fn67_a03.pdf


2. Anti-French alliance. Here we have a mess of the conflicting interests.
Pro: Britain is a biggest buyer of the Swedish iron (up to 50% of a total production) and planks and by 1700 the Baltic trade was dominated by the Brits and Dutch. So if we are talking strictly about British-Dutch war against France then the sympathies probably would be on a side of the fellow-Protestants and the main trade partners. Well, in OTL a meeting between Charkes and Marlborough started with the mutual rudeness and proceeded without finding a common ground and ended with a mutual dislike so I would not put too much weight upon the common religion. The trade was, of course, important for both sides but in OTL Sweden maintained for few years embargo on the Baltic trade, the Swedish privateers operated on the North and Baltic Seas and the trade relations had been restored only on the last stages of the GNW.


Contra: But the idyll is endangered by a behemoth in a china shop, the HRE. It just happened that in the WoSS Denmark, Saxony and Prussia sided with the Hapsburgs and if Prussia keeps quiet for a while the same can’t be said for the other two (painting below depicts an alliance of three of them against Sweden). And even with Prussia Sweden has some territorial issues which it may want to …er… rearrange.

Even if both Denmark and Saxony are forced to make a peace, joining WoSS on the imperial side with these scorpions at your back would require a considerably greater idealism than one we can safely credit Charles with. Speaking of which, to get engaged against France the Swedish troops have to march across half of Europe, to be fully dependent upon their allies in the terms of logistics (usual system of living off the land would not look good on the allied territories), may create issues with the chain of command unless Charles is personally in charge (and even then may cause some tensions at least with the Brits) and a resulting byproduct may be in the best case scenario some patch of a territory in Germany far away from Sweden because all places Sweden may be interested in are held by Denmark, Prussia or other Hapsburg allies. Renting army just for getting some money os, of course, not out of the question but would Charles consider it compatible with his dignity?

OTOH, a timely (after Denmark dealt with and the British-Dutch naval services are not needed) siding with France opens an opportunity for a war on the Baltic theater and potential perspective to readjust the map at least at the Prussian and Polish (one more Hapsburg ally) expense.

So, I repeat, the choice is not straightforward at all and not, yet, decided upon.

 

[Merrick]

I'd hate to be Peter's Chancellor/Comptroller/Keeper of the Purse or whatever his title is. It feels like trying to keep Russia's finances under some sort of control while Peters is shooting out one big new idea after another would drive a man to drink even if Peter wasn't requiring him to get ritually hammered every night. I get the impression that however fast the money comes in, Peter can always spend it twice as fast and there's no persuading him that about half his brilliant industrial ventures are storming money-losers. Meanwhile the landowners are grumbling that Peter is depriving them of their serfs and the merchants are grabbing every monopoly and sweetheart loan going. So is the Imperial treasury running heavily into debt, not paying its debts or resorting to regular emergency taxes?

Regarding Karl's options for Sweden in the WotSS, the way I see it is that with Denmark, Brandenburg-Prussia and Saxony-Poland all both aligned with the Hapsburgs and generally hostile to Sweden, declaring for France and leading his army to the Rhine is pretty much guaranteeing that he won't have a kingdom to come back to. So he'll either be wading into some or all of the above with Louis's blessing (and hopefully financial support) or else joining the anti-French alliance on the understanding that the Emperor can keep the jackals in line. (Karl being Karl, if the Danes or Saxons do stab him while they're both at war with the same enemy, he's liable to drop absolutely everything for the holy cause of beating them into the mud.)

 

[alexmilman]

4. Para bellum

After conclusion of the Peace of Constantinople Peter formally maintained a complete neutrality but it lasted only until he found out about the Saxon-Danish anti-Swedish treaty. This was not such a big surprise taking into an account the earlier failed attempts of King August to invite Peter into the coalition. So now Peter was facing the first major dilemma in his foreign politics:
1st option was to remain neutral in the coming conflict concentrating all energy on building up and training his army and navy for the future confrontation with the Ottomans. This was tempting if not the following considerations:
(a) August’s victory in Livonia would destroy the existing trade arrangements with Sweden and replace them with God knows what. Both imports/exports outside the Baltic Sea and direct trade with Sweden are going to be endangered and in the case of a protracted conflict potentially disfunctional for years.
(b) August emboldened by victory in Livonia may decide to win popularity in the PLC by reconquest of the territories lost by the Peace of Andrusovo.
(c) Denmark emboldened by the victory may decide to renew its old attempt to conquer the Kola Peninsula.
(d) A complete Danish control over the Baltic Sea may result in the raised Sound Dues hurting the bottom line of the Russian exports going through the Baltic ports.
(e) Seemingly a minor issue but not with Peter who rarely forgot the offenses: at the Congress at Karlowitz the Polish delegate made offensive remarks regarding dignity of the Tsar of Russia and refused to met with the Russian representative (the Austrians were guilty of the similar sin and even tried to prevent meetings between the Russian and Ottoman representatives but they were not immediately relevant).

2nd option was to make a mutual defense treaty with Sweden. Charles was an unknown entity but his army was one of the best in Europe, many of the top commanders had experience of the European wars.
On a negative side this would mean at least limited commitment of the Russian troops which Peter considered not quite ready for war.
On a positive side this would mean a strengthened friendship with Sweden (still a major supplier of iron, high quality cannons and perhaps a source of the competent instructors), perhaps some adjustments in the trade agreements and, last but not least, if opportunity presents itself and the PLC is getting involved in the conflict, try to get at least a piece of the Right Bank Ukraine, which would be very helpful for the future operations against the Crimean Khanate. The map below shows importance of Белая Церковь area in the terms of gaining access to the Black Sea and easier approach to the Crimean Peninsula.


The second option looked much more promising and Peter sent his sneakiest diplomat, Peter Tolstoy [1] , to Stockholm. Not that Charles seriously considered help from the Muscovite semi-barbarians as absolutely necessary but proposal was definitely nice and duly appreciated as a token of friendship. In the secret treaty it was agreed upon that in the case of attack on one party, the ally is going to provide upon request an auxiliary corps of at least 10,000 fully equipped and paid for as long as the attacker is still on the allied territory. The “host” should take care of tge food and forage and in the case of the join operations the highest-ranking commander is taking charge (presence of a royalty trumps all other considerations). Usual provisions regarding councils of war, ranks and other minutiae. As a special item it was agreed upon that few Russian officers would be allowed to join Swedish army as the observers and that the Swedish officers and subjects in general , with Charles’ permission, would be allowed to serve in the Russian army on a contractual basis. The first batch from the Russian side included few young nobles out of which captain Prince Michael Golitsyn was the most prominent one both socially and by his talents. Peter immediately hired few infantry and cavalry instructors to introduce the Swedish system in a place of the German based upon which the Russian troops were so far trained with not too impressive results, as was demonstrated at Azov.

Few young nobles (showing signs of a non-zero intellect) had been sent to France to study as the military engineers, an area in which France still was considered supreme. In few years this act was going to produce a completely unexpected benefit [2]

As a precaution against potential Danish naval attack against the Russian North Peter ordered construction of the Novodvinsk fortress to guard access to Archangelsk

and strengthening defenses of the Кольский Острог (now Southern outskirt of Murmansk) by increasing its garrison and adding artillery.

[1] Tolstoy had been closely involved with the government of Sophia and this was his first important assignment given by Peter so his head was quite literarily on the stake. As far as the scumbags go he was definitely in a top league (in OTL he was sent to convince Alexey to return to Russia) but he was also a very intelligent person and good diplomat.
[2] Remind me when we move to the 1710s. 😜

 

[Jürgen]

Even if both Denmark and Saxony are forced to make a peace, joining WoSS on the imperial side with these scorpions at your back would require a considerably greater idealism than one we can safely credit Charles with. Speaking of which, to get engaged against France the Swedish troops have to march across half of Europe, to be fully dependent upon their allies in the terms of logistics (usual system of living off the land would not look good on the allied territories), may create issues with the chain of command unless Charles is personally in charge (and even then may cause some tensions at least with the Brits) and a resulting byproduct may be in the best case scenario some patch of a territory in Germany far away from Sweden because all places Sweden may be interested in are held by Denmark, Prussia or other Hapsburg allies. Renting army just for getting some money os, of course, not out of the question but would Charles consider it compatible with his dignity?

OTOH, a timely (after Denmark dealt with and the British-Dutch naval services are not needed) siding with France opens an opportunity for a war on the Baltic theater and potential perspective to readjust the map at least at the Prussian and Polish (one more Hapsburg ally) expense.

I would say that Denmark won’t start a war with Sweden if Sweden are allied with France, England or Netherlands, the lessons in former wars show the foolishness in that, also Denmark didn’t do the whole changing sides in wars, the closest Denmark came to that was the 30YW, but even there Denamrk left the war for a decade first. Saxony may change side, but honestly if Saxony join the French alliance, Saxony will deal with Sweden, Brandenburg and Austria. Of course if Sweden fight on the French side Saxony will likely turn on them (together with Brandenburg, Hanover and potential Mecklenburg), while Denmark won’t start a war with Sweden but make a deal with the Imperial side where Denmark stay neutral, annex Gottorp and rent soldiers out to fight France in other theaters.

 

[alexmilman]

I'd hate to be Peter's Chancellor/Comptroller/Keeper of the Purse or whatever his title is. It feels like trying to keep Russia's finances under some sort of control while Peters is shooting out one big new idea after another would drive a man to drink even if Peter wasn't requiring him to get ritually hammered every night. I get the impression that however fast the money comes in, Peter can always spend it twice as fast and there's no persuading him that about half his brilliant industrial ventures are storming money-losers. Meanwhile the landowners are grumbling that Peter is depriving them of their serfs and the merchants are grabbing every monopoly and sweetheart loan going. So is the Imperial treasury running heavily into debt, not paying its debts or resorting to regular emergency taxes?

Funny as it may sound, in OTL the budget deficit started accumulating only during the last years of his reign even with the army, navy and a war consuming up to 85% of the state income. I’m avoiding getting deep into the finances, taxation, sources of state income etc. because I’m not planning a comprehensive coverage both because I’m not competent enough and because it will be deadly boring.
Chancellor was mostly responsible for the foreign politics.
For the domestic issues there was a Senate but AFAIK not all money matters were coming through it.
As for the modus operandi, you are a little bit confused. Of course, Peter was generating enormous amount of a paperwork but this does not mean that each and every of his whim had been immediately (if ever) put to the implementation. Ukaz written by Peter was usually going to the Senate for the consideration and, due to a huge volume of the documentation Senate had to process, not all of these whims would make it through and out of those which did, not all would be approved. Eventually, the orders approved by the Senate had been sent to the officials for. implementation and a big part of them had been either ignored or was triggering a protracted exchange of a documentation with the official complaining about the problems, Senate sending the updated instructions, etc. Bureaucracy in Russia always was a powerful tool of a national survival. 😂

Now, in this TL we have Peter with a much lesser administrative energy because, unlike OTL, he allocates some time for thinking. Then, there is no 20+ years of an extremely inefficiently run war in which Russia suffered well over 100,000 war losses and unknown losses of the civilian population. For example, at least 30% of the recruits never made it to their intended regiments but they are not counting as the war losses. There are no huge losses related to the construction of St-Petersburg and some other big scale projects. Which means that the estate owners have much less reasons to grumble.

Of course, Russia is far from being a paradise on Earth but the same can be said about most of Europe.

Regarding Karl's options for Sweden in the WotSS, the way I see it is that with Denmark, Brandenburg-Prussia and Saxony-Poland all both aligned with the Hapsburgs and generally hostile to Sweden, declaring for France and leading his army to the Rhine is pretty much guaranteeing that he won't have a kingdom to come back to. So he'll either be wading into some or all of the above with Louis's blessing (and hopefully financial support) or else joining the anti-French alliance on the understanding that the Emperor can keep the jackals in line. (Karl being Karl, if the Danes or Saxons do stab him while they're both at war with the same enemy, he's liable to drop absolutely everything for the holy cause of beating them into the mud.)

Very interesting and quite reasonable analysis, which unfortunately lacking explanation of the source point: what exactly Charles lost on the Rhine? Invasion of Kingdom of Prussia would most probably force Leopold of Anhalt-Dessau to march to Prussia and, depending upon the timing, this may impact some or all of the following events: battle of Cassano, Battle of Turin, Battle of Malplaquet. Invasion of Silesia followed, unlike OTL, advance into Austria, may force Prince Eugene to march there to save Hapsburg capital, etc. He can cause enough problems without getting too far from his base.

 

[Pesterfield]

(keep in mind that the Russian peasants did not have too much of a “horseback culture”)

Does Russia have control of where the Mongols and other steppe horseback cultures come from, or is that later expansion?

 

[alexmilman]

Does Russia have control of where the Mongols and other steppe horseback cultures come from, or is that later expansion?

Mongolia was controlled by China but Tsardom even by the time of Peter had plenty of the nomads as its subjects.

 

[Sceonn]

Interesting, but why aren't you Threadmarking?

 

[alexmilman]

Interesting, but why aren't you Threadmarking?

Is it necessary?

 

[alexmilman]

I would say that Denmark won’t start a war with Sweden if Sweden are allied with France, England or Netherlands, the lessons in former wars show the foolishness in that, also Denmark didn’t do the whole changing sides in wars, the closest Denmark came to that was the 30YW, but even there Denamrk left the war for a decade first. Saxony may change side, but honestly if Saxony join the French alliance, Saxony will deal with Sweden, Brandenburg and Austria. Of course if Sweden fight on the French side Saxony will likely turn on them (together with Brandenburg, Hanover and potential Mecklenburg), while Denmark won’t start a war with Sweden but make a deal with the Imperial side where Denmark stay neutral, annex Gottorp and rent soldiers out to fight France in other theaters.

You know at least as well as I do that in OTL it was not Denmark but the Brits and Dutch who changed their alliances during the GNW so no sane ruler would be building his own alliances and planning actions based strictly upon the current state of their alignments. Denmark, as was the case in OTL, would look at the Swedish strength or weakness to define its course of actions and the same would be the case with Prussia. But I’m not sure why are you talking about them changing the sides: Denmark, Prussia and Saxony were firmly in the imperial camp. But all three of them were potential enemies of Sweden so the Swedish pro-imperial alignment looks slightly unnatural to me. Not completely out of question but rather illogical: what Sweden is going to gain and where are the guarantees of not being hit in the back? OTOH, having them as the open enemies gives Charles an opportunity to put them out of the circulation for years and perhaps even grab some territory. Charles’ puppet king of the PLC has to be pro-French just because August is pro-Hapsburg so Charles may end up with a nice regional block of Sweden-Poland-Ottoman Empire, which is anti-Hapsburg.

 

[von Adler]

You know at least as well as I do that in OTL it was not Denmark but the Brits and Dutch who changed their alliances during the GNW so no sane ruler would be building his own alliances and planning actions based strictly upon the current state of their alignments. Denmark, as was the case in OTL, would look at the Swedish strength or weakness to define its course of actions and the same would be the case with Prussia. But I’m not sure why are you talking about them changing the sides: Denmark, Prussia and Saxony were firmly in the imperial camp. But all three of them were potential enemies of Sweden so the Swedish pro-imperial alignment looks slightly unnatural to me. Not completely out of question but rather illogical: what Sweden is going to gain and where are the guarantees of not being hit in the back? OTOH, having them as the open enemies gives Charles an opportunity to put them out of the circulation for years and perhaps even grab some territory. Charles’ puppet king of the PLC has to be pro-French just because August is pro-Hapsburg so Charles may end up with a nice regional block of Sweden-Poland-Ottoman Empire, which is anti-Hapsburg.

The goal of both Karl XI and Karl XII in foreign policy was to avoid entangling alliances that could start wars for Sweden that Sweden neither needed nor could gain anything from. The loose association and friendly relationship with the Naval Powers (Dutch and English) and understanding with the Emperor had served Sweden well up to this point. Denmark, which wanted to start wars in 1683 and 1688 was forced to back down by Dutch and English support for Sweden, so from the Swedish perspective, the strategy laid down by Karl XI worked just fine.

Karl XI had been furious that France made peace at Fountainebleau 1679 for Sweden without consulting Karl XI, treating Sweden as a vassal state and France had occupied the Duchy of Pfalz-Zweibrücken, which was the personal domain of Karl XI and XII 1671-1697, which also caused resentment. Sweden also supported and rented troops to the anti-French League of Augsburg (primarily the Dutch) during the Nine Years War

Sweden during this era had angered all her neighbours. Lübeck/Hannover wanted Swedish Bremen, Brandenburg-Prussia wanted Swedish Pommerania, Denmark-Norway wanted Scania back (and if possible also other lost territory), Poland-Lithuania wanted Livonia and OTL Russa wanted access to the sea back. Sweden was surrounded by enemies waiting for a chance to pounce, and Karl XI, Karl XII and Piper, who both used as their de facto chancellor also knew it and all supported the OTL policy of friendly relations with the Naval Powers and the Emperor, but no entangling alliances and no involvement with France. Being friendly with the Emperor mostly kept the antagonistic German princes in line - so a pro-Imperial policy also worked out for Sweden during this era.

Karl XI, Piper and XII had no desire for more territory or foreign adventures, and knew that it might trigger a pile-up on Sweden.

When it comes to the meeting between Karl XII and Marlborough in April 1707 in Altranstädt in Saxony, the mutual impoliteness is not mentioned by contemporary sources - the first source is from a French travellerer (de la Motraye) and his criticism of Voltaire's biography of Karl XII, from 1732. He was not present during the meeting. In fact, the meeting can be described as as success for both Karl XII and Marlborough. Marlborough got guarantees that Sweden did not intend to join the French in the War of the Spanish Succession (which was a real fear in the Allied camp at the time, as Karl was recruiting heavily in Germany at the time to reinforce his army). He also got guarantees that Sweden had no intentions to mess around in the Empire at that time. In return, Karl gained the continued British facilitation of good relations with the Emperor, which meant that Sweden's southern flank was secure and that Denmark, Prussia and Hannover would be kept in line and that Karl could continue to recruit in Germany for his army and then invade Russia.

Sweden had a pro-Naval Powers and anti-French policy since 1680, which combined with friendly relations with the Emperor had served Sweden very well, and that Karl XI, Karl XII and Piper, who were the most influential persons regarding Swedish foreign policy, all supported this. As Sweden at this time was more concerned about warding off everyone they had pissed off and keeping the territory it had gained, it had no desire to conquer more territory or go on any foreign adventures.

My bottom line is that Sweden will not join the French side in the War of Spanish Succession, and unless directly attacked, will try to avoid war entirely, especially far away and for little gain in what is the chief goal of Swedish foreign policy at this time - keep what they have gained, keep out of war. Good relations with the Emperor also worked in direct Swedish favour at this time.

 

[Sceonn]

Is it necessary?

I mean, not everyone's reading it on a PC and scrolling through the thread to chance upon an update when it could simply be threadmarked?

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

the chief goal of Swedish foreign policy at this time - keep what they have gained

1. Alas, the problem for the Swedish Empire in this era is that they did not have the resources to keep what they had gained.
2. A Sweden with a vassalised PLC and Russian alliance is a different beast.
3. Dismantling Prussia - annexing some of it, giving other parts to those they wish to befriend is surely the only way to keep their German posessions long term?

 

[alexmilman]

The goal of both Karl XI and Karl XII in foreign policy was to avoid entangling alliances that could start wars for Sweden that Sweden neither needed nor could gain anything from. The loose association and friendly relationship with the Naval Powers (Dutch and English) and understanding with the Emperor had served Sweden well up to this point. Denmark, which wanted to start wars in 1683 and 1688 was forced to back down by Dutch and English support for Sweden, so from the Swedish perspective, the strategy laid down by Karl XI worked just fine.

Karl XI had been furious that France made peace at Fountainebleau 1679 for Sweden without consulting Karl XI, treating Sweden as a vassal state and France had occupied the Duchy of Pfalz-Zweibrücken, which was the personal domain of Karl XI and XII 1671-1697, which also caused resentment. Sweden also supported and rented troops to the anti-French League of Augsburg (primarily the Dutch) during the Nine Years War

Sweden during this era had angered all her neighbours. Lübeck/Hannover wanted Swedish Bremen, Brandenburg-Prussia wanted Swedish Pommerania, Denmark-Norway wanted Scania back (and if possible also other lost territory), Poland-Lithuania wanted Livonia and OTL Russa wanted access to the sea back. Sweden was surrounded by enemies waiting for a chance to pounce, and Karl XI, Karl XII and Piper, who both used as their de facto chancellor also knew it and all supported the OTL policy of friendly relations with the Naval Powers and the Emperor, but no entangling alliances and no involvement with France. Being friendly with the Emperor mostly kept the antagonistic German princes in line - so a pro-Imperial policy also worked out for Sweden during this era.

Karl XI, Piper and XII had no desire for more territory or foreign adventures, and knew that it might trigger a pile-up on Sweden.

When it comes to the meeting between Karl XII and Marlborough in April 1707 in Altranstädt in Saxony, the mutual impoliteness is not mentioned by contemporary sources - the first source is from a French travellerer (de la Motraye) and his criticism of Voltaire's biography of Karl XII, from 1732. He was not present during the meeting. In fact, the meeting can be described as as success for both Karl XII and Marlborough. Marlborough got guarantees that Sweden did not intend to join the French in the War of the Spanish Succession (which was a real fear in the Allied camp at the time, as Karl was recruiting heavily in Germany at the time to reinforce his army). He also got guarantees that Sweden had no intentions to mess around in the Empire at that time. In return, Karl gained the continued British facilitation of good relations with the Emperor, which meant that Sweden's southern flank was secure and that Denmark, Prussia and Hannover would be kept in line and that Karl could continue to recruit in Germany for his army and then invade Russia.

Sweden had a pro-Naval Powers and anti-French policy since 1680, which combined with friendly relations with the Emperor had served Sweden very well, and that Karl XI, Karl XII and Piper, who were the most influential persons regarding Swedish foreign policy, all supported this. As Sweden at this time was more concerned about warding off everyone they had pissed off and keeping the territory it had gained, it had no desire to conquer more territory or go on any foreign adventures.

My bottom line is that Sweden will not join the French side in the War of Spanish Succession, and unless directly attacked, will try to avoid war entirely, especially far away and for little gain in what is the chief goal of Swedish foreign policy at this time - keep what they have gained, keep out of war. Good relations with the Emperor also worked in direct Swedish favour at this time.

I’m not sure that everything was that rosy in the Swedish relations with the Empire and the Brits. Of course, there was absolutely no reason for spoiling relations with them and Charles was too busy fighting the GNW to join WOSS on any side so Marlborough’s “success” simply means that Charles agreed not to do what he was not going to do anyway and for this squeezed some concessions for the fellow Protestants in Silesia. 😂

But an idea of him joining the anti-French alliance seemingly was discussed seriously and if Marlborough’s statement that he would like to fight a campaign under Charles’ command can be considered as a routine politeness, it is on the record that Peter was offering Marlborough a very serious bribe if he manages to convince Charles to go to the ‘Western’ theater. The Emperor seemingly was afraid that from Silesia Charles may march on Vienna.

Anyway, what would be the reason for Charles, if he decided to join WoSS, to join the Allies? Trade relations with the Brits and Dutch were important but they were mutually important so even in the worst case scenario he would not expect an excessive hostility from them. In OTL he kept the Baltic pretty much closed for years and Swedish privateers had been actively harassing the Dutch on the North Sea. But this was ‘just business’ and both maritime powers had been happy to restore relations at the first opportunity (more or less the same goes for their “hostile-friendly” jigsaw with Russia during the GNW: hostile stages never resulted in some dramatic actions which would be hard to repair later).

Yes, Sweden did participate in the anti-French coalitions before but it fought on the French side either and, if it makes sense, can do this again. Strategic problem for CXII, if he decides to join WoSS at all (which is not granted in this TL) is that for fighting on the Allied side he has to march across the whole Germany leaving extremely unreliable …er… “allies” who hate Sweden and have plenty of uncommitted resources to attack his territories while he is doing all these heroics in the Netherlands or on the Rhine. Would the Brits and Austrians march with him to punish Saxony and Prussia? Unlikely.

What you are seemingly missing is that in this TL he actually does not have to join any side within framework of the WoSS. With Russia being friendly he can proceed with settling the scores with Saxony, Denmark, Poland and Prussia without having France, Britain or Hapsburgs involved and without him joining any side. It is just a separate Little Northern War with its own goals and a realistic possibility to get some territories valuable for Sweden. For example, “return” the whole Pomerania, getting Danzig, annex Courland. Not sure if he may want something from Denmark but you got a picture. The Big Guys are busy fighting each other and it is just fine by him because he can get what he wants with impunity. As a trade block, Sweden-Russia are too important to the maritime powers to make too much of a post factum fuss and Austria can’t actively interfere either when Charles and Peter are going to make their little “pre partition” of the PLC.

But, as you yourself noticed, we are going a little bit ahead of the schedule. 😂

Edit: Just checked two different biographies of Marlborough on the meeting and both are rather on a negative side about the mutual impressions. Charles found Marlborough too overdressed and Marlborough considered him too plain and rough. The juicy details I was referenced to were (IIRC) mentioned in Massie’s biography of Peter (don’t know where he got them) but it looks like the Allies had been fearing two things:
(a) That Charles is planning to create anti-Hapsburg coalition of the German Protestant states (I was under impression that at this time Sweden was not exactly popular with most of them and that geopolitical situation in Germany was a little bit different from one of the GA time but who am I to argue….)
(b) That Charles may join LXIV (what for if so far he was doing just fine on his own without a need to care about somebody else’s interests).

So, in terms of preventing Charles from pursuing these goals, Marlborough’s mission can be considered a smashing success leaving us with an obvious question: was Charles planning to do anything of the kind to start with? 😂

 

[alexmilman]

1. Alas, the problem for the Swedish Empire in this era is that they did not have the resources to keep what they had gained.
2. A Sweden with a vassalised PLC and Russian alliance is a different beast.

Which is exactly the point. As far as the PLC goes there are (AFAIK, the corrections are welcomed) two fundamental issues:
1. The Swedish behavior. With the army living off the land they were routinely alienating a considerable part of the Polish nobility generating certain degree of support even for otherwise not too popular monarch. Still, Charles retained enough of the support to put his puppet king on the throne and even have some Polish troops fighting on his side.
2. In OTL the pro-August Sandomierz Confederacy to a great degree was surviving on a huge Russian financial help (200,000 rubles annually not counting big one time gifts to August; for the reference, Russian annual state income of that time was 2 - 3 millions so we are talking of 6 - 10% of the budget) and obligation to maintain 12,000 troops and return Semen Paliy's conquests in Ukraine and Russian conquests in Livonia (in OTL the Right Bank Ukraine was returned, thus influencing future Mazepa’s treason, but Livonia was not). In this TL there is no Russian help of any type so the obvious question is how August is going to pay his troops and (getting ahead of myself) Peter is interested in getting the West Bank Ukraine and ready to commit his troops to help the rebelling Cossacks.

Which means that Charles and Peter can do pretty much whatever they want because the Great Powers are busy fighting each other.

3. Dismantling Prussia - annexing some of it, giving other parts to those they wish to befriend is surely the only way to keep their German posessions long term?

At least it is something worth trying. And cutting tge strategic pieces off the PLC can strengthen the Swedish control over the Baltic trade.

 

[UnaiB]

So, will there be any significant divergence / butterfly in the WoSS ITTL?

 

[Jürgen]

I Think people forget that Brandenburg-Prussia is busy fighting in the WoSS.

Sweden is fighting in Poland, their main objectives will be to get rid of Augustus and annex Courland, Polish Livonia, Royal Prussia and Warmia. Courland and Polish Livonia for obvious reasons, but Royal Prussia and Warmia because it give Sweden a monopoly on Vistula export and import.