Miranda's Rotting Dream: (Potentially) Part of The Eagle and the Bear
(also known as: Things Do Happen in South America!)
A quick little map I mocked up while sketching out ideas for later down the road in my timeline. PoD is that Paul I of Russia is warned about the coming attempt to "depose" him, meaning Horatio Nelson's attack on Kronstadt (to cow Russia out of its League of Armed Neutrality) continues as planned. However, the attack does nothing except solidify Paul's anger at the British, and Paul's Russia seeks friendship with Napoleon. This butterflies away pretty much all of the Napoleonic Wars as we know them, which naturally means a staring contest between the French continent and Britain alone— where Britain rules the waves. Since Spain is a French ally, and due to other trade restrictions placed on Spanish colonies, trade with the Spanish is almost entirely blocked off, and so Britain pours a lot of its war effort into aiding New World rebellion. And their efforts begin with a commitment to an elated
Francisco de Miranda's plan to liberate South America— starting in Venezuela. The details are of course subject to change, especially if I change things much earlier in the timeline with further research, so... this isn't exactly TL spoilers, and it's a fun enough scenario to share.
But enough of all that setup! Let's go region by region and see what's going on.
Colombia Region
Francisco de Miranda's attempt to liberate all of South America quickly petered out. Upon arriving on the coasts of Venezuela, backed by the Royal Navy and bolstered by thousands of redcoats, he didn't find the mass of volunteer freedom fighters he was expecting. While his British assistance did allow him to quickly consolidate the Venezuelan and New Granadan coast, the bickering nature of the area's cities (who saw each other as rivals more than anything else) hindered his ability to expand further, and his armies found themselves marching back and forth across crocodile-infested waters to put down "patriotic royalist" uprisings. Over time, yellow fever cut down more than half his troops, and their attempts to expand inland met fierce resistance.
José Antonio Páez— El Jefe Supremo of the mostly mixed-race, black, and indigenous
llanero cowboys— organized the ragtag bunch into a formidable cavalry force and waged war against Miranda's
criollo-supremacist Venezuela. His
Free State of Los Llanos (often printed in English papers as simply "Los Llanos," or even "Jannos") is in a precarious position due to lack of consistent coast access to sell their ranch goods, but it remains its own state for the time being. The interior was lost to Miranda for the forseeable future— at least through military conquest— so he retreated to consolidate his "United Confederacy" (for
now consisting only of the Republic of Venezuela and what he called the Republic of Magdalena). Miranda is proving incredibly unpopular among the people, especially non-
criollos, but has managed to maintain military rule. Promises of true republican government are looking less and less likely while the old general holds onto power, and there are whispers among the top brass that General Manuel Piar is in secret negotiations with the llaneros for unknown purposes.
Central America and the Caribbean
Britain took personal control of the vast majority of Spanish holdings in the Caribbean as soon as they established naval dominance, leaving only the large slaver island of Cuba. Meanwhile, they recognized and bargained with the autonomous
Garifuna societies and the
Mosquito Kingdom to expand their influence on the main.
Ayiti (in English, often written as Ayitia or Aitia) was rocked by slave rebellion for decades, as the British and Spanish failed to invade the interior and the French failed to re-establish the old order, despite Napoleon's best efforts. The proud people of Ayiti gained their independence under military dictatorship, ending slavery and, eventually, founding the "Empire" of Ayiti, in line with surrounding states and those in Europe.
North America and the Yucatan
After losing Saint-Domingue to revolt, Napoleon's backwater Louisiana territory was a sitting duck for British invasion itself, and New Orleans quickly fell to the same British hands that took Spanish Florida, completing British encirclement of the fledgeling United States. Meanwhile, beginning in 1821, mainland New Spain was practically on fire from a religiously-motivated indigenous and mestizo peasant revolt. After long periods of British blockade and the dissemination of Enlightenment texts in major ports— alongside an incident in Europe involving Ferdinand VII's French-backed seizure of the throne— the entire North American Spanish Main descended into bloody conflict. After years of fighting, the Viceroy of New Spain won out in the north and the peasant republicans in the south. After repeated failed attempts by the north to invade the jungle of Central America, the two governments agreed to a ceasefire and split the territory. Only a few years after— due to both domestic pressures and the collapse of the Spanish crown during the reign of the
First Cortes Nacional— Viceroy Juan Ruiz de Apodaca declared
New Spain an independent, royalist empire ruled by Emperor Ferdinand VII (Ferdinand I in New Spain, but as he still claimed the Spanish throne, he insisted on using his old titles). Among other territories, the Empire of New Spain is comprised of the Kingdoms of México, Nueva Galicia, and Nueva León, as well as the Territories of Cuba and Nueva Castille (which have more autonomy and are allowed self-government).
Peru and Brazil Regions
All the way until the independence of New Spain, Peru was also a loyal royalist stronghold. In stalemate with de Miranda's Anglo-
criollo army, Peru was a mostly peaceful land through the course of the Wars of Spanish Liberation. However, upon the seizure of power by the Cortes Nacional back in Spain proper, Peru also went its own way, founding the
Empire of Peru. Nominally, they are also loyal to Ferdinand VII (who is
also Ferdinand I in Peru), but their affairs are almost completely separate from those in New Spain. As of 1831, Peru feels isolated from the attention of their Emperor (who is mostly busy with constitutional crisis back in Mexico City) and has begun a sort of rivalry with New Spain. There are even whispers in Lima's halls of power about inviting the king's brother, Carlos, to rule....
Portugal-Brazil is much like OTL. With his eastern flank secured, Napoleon's invasion of Portugal was sudden and effective. The country was partitioned between Joseph Bonaparte and Manuel de Godoy, and the court fled to Brazil. After some time, they have recognized Brazil as an equal partner and its own crown. The country has been revitalized and, despite tensions, has mostly appreciated the new attention of the King. With their British alliance, they have managed to play a more significant role in the wars surrounding them as well, and have negotiated to expand their reach to the west and the south.
La Plata Region
Finally, there is La Plata. After a series of direct British excursions proved promising, Argentina was incorporated into perfidious Albion's overseas possessions. Often remarked by historians to have been a grievous policy mistake by an overzealous Parliament, holding this colony would prove much more costly to the army and the treasury than anticipated. However, it was held. The colony of British Argentine (with the semi-autonomous Republic of Montevideo included) became another jewel in their crown. The
Republic of Chile probably turned out the best of all the new nations, from a revolutionary point of view. A relatively stable and democratic society already by the time of 1831, Chile managed to defend its sovereignty from both Spain and Britain, though the infant republic's push into Peru failed. As of 1829, its northernmost province (
Atacama Norte) has declared its own, temporary independence over restrictions on trade imposed by the central government, and the fate of the region remains in flux. Bordering Atacama Norte is the
Confederation of Chaco-Charcas, a mishmash of different independence movements that caught traction in the area. The only South American state led by indigenous people, Chaco-Charcas is a compromise of interests bound together by fear of Peru, Brazil, and Britain. Recently, its democratic government was overthrown by a popular military coup from President Champi Ollanta de Santa Cruz, and tensions between indigenous, mestizo, and
criollo populations are rising. Finally, little
"Republic" of Asunción is eking out its own existence under the absolute rule of El Dictator José Rodríguez de Francia. Almost every male living in Asunción is enlisted in its militia, and a lopsided number are permanent fixtures in its professional military. Somehow, it has beaten back multiple Anglo-Portuguese attempts at conquest all on its own, and the siege mentality gripping the nation has made it a hotbed of early nationalism.
Any feedback would be much appreciated!
I didn't know too much about South American history going into researching for this, so I may have missed some really important stuff. I'd love to flesh things out even more before reaching this point in the TL.