Oh, I don't disagree with any of this, I just think that the IJA will sacrifice or freeze other fronts to concentrate on Malaya and the East Indies as they were considered the real prizes. Utterly vital. After all, the oil was the point and Singapore was the choke point for that oil. Though yeah, they're going to have to shuffle a lot of decks to make it happen and it's going to be a bit of a race as the Allies build up elsewhere.I agree with your premise that Yamashita could receive resupply. But that is not as assured as one might think. The whole series of Japanese offensives are based on a shaky premise. They were borrowing from a lot of buckets to partially fill even more buckets. Buckets some times spring leaks just before the bottom falls out. It will be difficult to refill much less replace their buckets. That the Japanese pulled it off, is to their credit.
The Japanese allies in Germany and Italy are hard pressed as well, bucket wise. Can the British pull it off in their other theatres is the question. The British and Americans can afford to lose buckets. The lost buckets will not be replaced. Instead, they will receive barrels, followed by storage tanks and eventually reservoirs. This is the historical occurrence.
Don't book passage aboard the Queen Mary just yet. The cadre which Fatboy Coxy is developing can be categorized as "Right Place, but Wrong Time" as opposed the "Has-Beens or Never Were/Will Be". Their PM is the wild card.
The RN is now appearing to rehearse what is known as the "War Patrol". It appears that the (R)ainbow class submarines remained on station with China or East Indies instead of transiting to The Med. If the reports are correct, the RN is transiting onto a wartime footing now rather than waiting to do so later..
My conclusion is that ADM Hart was the one senior US officer in the Pacific, with a sensible grasp of ongoing events. I think that a most revealing event occurs when the War Dept. plucks a permanent Major General out of retirement, gives him back a star and command over an active duty four star Admiral. The War Department apparently ascribes to the "Fixed Batteries uber alles" adages of yesteryear.
Having said good things about ADM Hart, I have to go against the historical trend about GEN. Percival. He's a competent Sr. Staff officer. He's not a field commander. I think that field commander is coming in from East Africa. Now that his senior, Gen. Heath is off the peninsula list by direction of the PM. things will get set right.
Worse, I'm thinking in the long term it'll cost the IJA and IJN resources that'll bring about that reckoning Yamamoto predicted that much quicker. And for the Allies while it'll hurt short term, you're right, long term it's no big pain, if embarrassing short term. They KNOW they'll be back.
Agree on Percival. As I research on this campaign, he seemed to have come up with a solid defense plan for Malaya before the war, one that would've worked given proper resources and leadership. He seemed a solid staff officer with a excellent brain. What is needed is a pragmatic officer whose a quick thinker, aggressive, adaptive, hard driving, willing to train the men hard, and not put up with Colonial Office stupidity and it seems we may have gotten at that, or at least something close. Even halfway there is a massive improvement!