Keynes' Cruisers

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Multiple carriers with lots of fighters and almost as many destroyers as torpedo bombers for escorts will take their chances fighting their way in or out.

And if N. Carolina can get her vibration problem fixed for additional AAA, also Which Atlanta's are available for escort?
 
I have no doubt they will achieve their mission but I don't know if they can achieve operational surprise. Were they reading the U Boat cyphers at Bletchley yet, if they were moving the force around U Boats would mean getting in would be a lot easier, though if Condors start disappearing in job lots someone might get anxious.
KM and U-boat signals were being read accurately from June 1941 up to the point the switch to the four rotor enigma happened - but that wasn't until March 42 in OTL
 
Story 0948

December 12, 1941 Murmansk


Convoy PQ-6 had arrived. Nine merchant ships were being brought to their piers by steam tugs while the Royal Navy escort of a single light cruiser, a pair of destroyers and a handful of other, smaller warships stayed further up the bay until a minor issue could be resolved by the harbor master. The only danger during the passage was the southward edge of the pack ice was much further south than it usually was. The cold winds had allowed for a faster and broader freeze. Sailors reported seeing at least one periscope every day but no torpedoes ever came for the convoy.
 
Story 0949

December 12, 1941 Dawn, Hong Kong



HMS Thracian pounded through the narrow waters between the New Territories and the original island of the colony. Her guns were manned and an extra three dozen men were brought aboard to operate the light machine guns. She was the only plausible threat to the assault that everyone on the island knew was coming. The four battalions that garrisoned the colony as an outpost were insufficient for actual resistance. They had been enough of a presence to force the Japanese to make an overt and non-deniable move that would result in war if they wanted the colony but war had come anyways. They were expendable now.

As the destroyer got in close to the opposite shore line, her machine guns and pom-poms fired on a trio of junks, setting one ablaze, and holing another until it sank. The Japanese artillery started to fire and it was quickly obvious that they were not used to shooting at rapidly moving targets. Thracian dodged the shell fire until she approached the eastern edge of the channel where a trio of Japanese anti-tank guns waited for her. They fired, and fired again, and fired once more as heavy machine gunners supported them by rapid and accurate bursts of fire into the ship’s hull. The Royal Navy sailors and the machine gunners from the Middlessex Regiment were exposed and cut down on the deck. Soon the destroyer had to turn her stern to the anti-tank ambush and run to the open sea where her surviving crew could deal with the half dozen small fires and three score holes in her hull between wind and water.

As she eased her way back to the dock, she was deemed to be useless without significant repairs that the colony could not do in time. The discussion to start making a decision began. Before night fall, a tug boat pulled the old destroyer to deeper water outside of the harbor and opened up her seacocks. Coastal defense guns were spiked and the last of the useful facilities began to be destroyed. As this was happening, a delegation under a white flag went across the bay to discuss terms with the invading Japanese.
 
December 12, 1941 Murmansk

Convoy PQ-6 had arrived. Nine merchant ships were being brought to their piers by steam tugs while the Royal Navy escort of a single light cruiser, a pair of destroyers and a handful of other, smaller warships stayed further up the bay until a minor issue could be resolved by the harbor master. The only danger during the passage was the southward edge of the pack ice was much further south than it usually was. The cold winds had allowed for a faster and broader freeze. Sailors reported seeing at least one periscope every day but no torpedoes ever came for the convoy.

2 more merchant ship than OTL - where 'only' 7 arrived and 1 other small freighter (or possibly rescue vessel?) either turned back or did not leave Reykjavik.

Those little butterflies are beginning to flutter
 
Yeah, Nazi Germany, I see, still declares war on the US, which will have the same results as OTL. Nice spotting there, @Cryhavoc101 of the larger number of merchant ships surviving...

Letting Hong Kong and Guam fall without more forces being sent will help the US and Britain in the Philippines and Malaya. If the Philippines falls ITTL, expect many AH.comers to say that MacArthur surviving would have saved the Philippines (or is he as hated there ITTL as he is on the board IOTL?)...

On another note, the Japanese casualties from TTL's campaigns in the Philippines and Malaya will be higher than OTL, which will cause even more butterflies to flap...

As for Kimmel, his being relieved was a foregone conclusion; he was in charge at Pearl when the attack occurred, and someone had to take the fall for it. Hopefully, with the different Pearl result, his career end will be better than OTL (Nimitz sympathized with him IOTL, stating that "it could have happened to anyone." (1))...

(1) That's a quote I read at the Pacific War Museum (aka the Nimitz Museum) in Nimitz's hometown in Fredericksburg, Texas (BTW, @fester, go there if you haven't already; just don't go in the height of summer)...
 
“Very well, next Monday we tabletop and Thursday we fly Bathhouse-3; Also, never again plan a joint operation against a nation that one of the two navies is not at war without informing your admirals. We don’t like being surprised.”

Fester that last line left me laughing so hard I couldn't hit the like button until I settled down. It does indeed sound like admirals.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
So British forces have met and dealt with the infamous Japanese hook. I assume that as in OTL, they had been told of this, by those who have been monitoring the war in China, but this time have taken notice. The response while better than it was IOTL, is still not as good as it needs to be. There was no counter punch into the hook, to disrupt its application, nor were the assets available to remain in place and be resupplied by air. It was this tactic that Bill Slim’s 14th Army used in Burma to defeat the Japanese and destroy their forces. All done, with the minimal supplies, at the end of one of the most difficult supply lines ever.


The Japanese attack plan is slowly coming of the rails, and providing nothing major goes wrong for the British, is heading for a major crash. With every additional hour it takes for the Japanese to hit their marks, the possibility of taking Singapore becomes less and less. No Singapore, no Burma, no Burma, no major rubber shortages, or rice shortage, affecting Bengal. Being totally selfish, from the British point of view, they don’t care what happens to the Philippines, that’s the Septics problem.


A better British performance, gives them a bigger say at the table, and costs them less of a financial bill. America reliant on Britain for rubber, is an America that has less of a big stick to beat the British with economically. The arrival in theatre of British submarines, crewed and commanded by men with experience in the Mediterranean, is going to be a big shock for the Japanese. And being smaller than the American big Pacific boats, give the Japanese major headaches, in the South China Sea, and around the Philippines. Just hope the British have their press office in line to get the news into the American Press. British subs sink Japanese supply ships heading for the Philippines, British subs resupply trapped American forces, and evacuate civilians and wounded. After all the British torpedoes work, and the guys driving the boats, know what they are doing, unlike the Japanese defenders.

RR.
 
Letting Hong Kong and Guam fall without more forces being sent will help the US and Britain in the Philippines and Malaya. If the Philippines falls ITTL, expect many AH.comers to say that MacArthur surviving would have saved the Philippines (or is he as hated there ITTL as he is on the board IOTL?)...

I don't think the AH.commers of the Keynes Cruisers Timeline would hate MacArthur too much. He is a fairly inconsequential figure in their universe. There may be a few rabid Mac supporters and at least half a dozen great timelines where a Mac Survives becomes a trope but the things that pissed off most AH-ers in OTL have not happened yet. In KC AH.com TL, MacArthur might get some hatred for the Bonus Army busting and what else........
 
I don't think the AH.commers of the Keynes Cruisers Timeline would hate MacArthur too much. He is a fairly inconsequential figure in their universe. There may be a few rabid Mac supporters and at least half a dozen great timelines where a Mac Survives becomes a trope but the things that pissed off most AH-ers in OTL have not happened yet. In KC AH.com TL, MacArthur might get some hatred for the Bonus Army busting and what else........
And of course there will be a timeline where OTL events happen.
 
Sending a carrier force against Brest, with Luftwaffe forces not be degraded is not a good idea. It will certainly cost the air wings dearly, I'm not sure at this point in time how good the Luftwaffe is at maritime strike and what appropriate units might be in the Brest area. Some of the naval aircraft will hold their own against the Luftwaffe, but sending Stringbags in to an area with Me-109s around is almost suicidal. If this can achieve tactical surprise, and there is only one wave, it might achieve goals with acceptable losses, without surprise or expecting a second wave to succeed you are asking for a very expensive disaster. The carriers, and their trained air groups, are more valuable than the twins and the Hipper. If they do an honest wargaming of an attack without tactical surprise the admirals should say no thanks.
 
Sending a carrier force against Brest, with Luftwaffe forces not be degraded is not a good idea. It will certainly cost the air wings dearly, I'm not sure at this point in time how good the Luftwaffe is at maritime strike and what appropriate units might be in the Brest area. Some of the naval aircraft will hold their own against the Luftwaffe, but sending Stringbags in to an area with Me-109s around is almost suicidal. If this can achieve tactical surprise, and there is only one wave, it might achieve goals with acceptable losses, without surprise or expecting a second wave to succeed you are asking for a very expensive disaster. The carriers, and their trained air groups, are more valuable than the twins and the Hipper. If they do an honest wargaming of an attack without tactical surprise the admirals should say no thanks.

We'll get into that... the challenge is that the Luftwaffe is prepping for a dash which means its fighter strength is spread all along the path of the dash while the carriers have a single punch to throw.... We'll see what the war game looks like in a bit.
 
So British forces have met and dealt with the infamous Japanese hook. I assume that as in OTL, they had been told of this, by those who have been monitoring the war in China, but this time have taken notice. The response while better than it was IOTL, is still not as good as it needs to be. There was no counter punch into the hook, to disrupt its application, nor were the assets available to remain in place and be resupplied by air. It was this tactic that Bill Slim’s 14th Army used in Burma to defeat the Japanese and destroy their forces. All done, with the minimal supplies, at the end of one of the most difficult supply lines ever.


The Japanese attack plan is slowly coming of the rails, and providing nothing major goes wrong for the British, is heading for a major crash. With every additional hour it takes for the Japanese to hit their marks, the possibility of taking Singapore becomes less and less. No Singapore, no Burma, no Burma, no major rubber shortages, or rice shortage, affecting Bengal. Being totally selfish, from the British point of view, they don’t care what happens to the Philippines, that’s the Septics problem.


A better British performance, gives them a bigger say at the table, and costs them less of a financial bill. America reliant on Britain for rubber, is an America that has less of a big stick to beat the British with economically. The arrival in theatre of British submarines, crewed and commanded by men with experience in the Mediterranean, is going to be a big shock for the Japanese. And being smaller than the American big Pacific boats, give the Japanese major headaches, in the South China Sea, and around the Philippines. Just hope the British have their press office in line to get the news into the American Press. British subs sink Japanese supply ships heading for the Philippines, British subs resupply trapped American forces, and evacuate civilians and wounded. After all the British torpedoes work, and the guys driving the boats, know what they are doing, unlike the Japanese defenders.

RR.

That's why any delay is of critical importance.
The more they slow the advance down, the more time to work out and apply counters to the Japanese tactics before they get too close to Singapore.

They didn't do too badly for a first attempt, as word goes up about how the Japanese do things, counters will be implemented (this is Montgomery we're talking about here)
 

Paternas

Donor
Sending a carrier force against Brest, with Luftwaffe forces not be degraded is not a good idea. It will certainly cost the air wings dearly, I'm not sure at this point in time how good the Luftwaffe is at maritime strike and what appropriate units might be in the Brest area. Some of the naval aircraft will hold their own against the Luftwaffe, but sending Stringbags in to an area with Me-109s around is almost suicidal. If this can achieve tactical surprise, and there is only one wave, it might achieve goals with acceptable losses, without surprise or expecting a second wave to succeed you are asking for a very expensive disaster. The carriers, and their trained air groups, are more valuable than the twins and the Hipper. If they do an honest wargaming of an attack without tactical surprise the admirals should say no thanks.
What about using the RAF for additional cover? Brest should be in range for the Spitfires Vb used at the time. For a one off strike it should be possible to overwhelm the local defenses.
 
Sending a carrier force against Brest, with Luftwaffe forces not be degraded is not a good idea. It will certainly cost the air wings dearly, I'm not sure at this point in time how good the Luftwaffe is at maritime strike and what appropriate units might be in the Brest area. Some of the naval aircraft will hold their own against the Luftwaffe, but sending Stringbags in to an area with Me-109s around is almost suicidal. If this can achieve tactical surprise, and there is only one wave, it might achieve goals with acceptable losses, without surprise or expecting a second wave to succeed you are asking for a very expensive disaster. The carriers, and their trained air groups, are more valuable than the twins and the Hipper. If they do an honest wargaming of an attack without tactical surprise the admirals should say no thanks.

The LW units that have practice in anti-shipping strikes aren't in France, they are in the Med...
 
That's why any delay is of critical importance.
The more they slow the advance down, the more time to work out and apply counters to the Japanese tactics before they get too close to Singapore.

They didn't do too badly for a first attempt, as word goes up about how the Japanese do things, counters will be implemented (this is Montgomery we're talking about here)
For a first time, the Punjabi regiment held off the Japanese good, around 10 to 12 hours. And this is a colonial unit not the mainline British one.
 
December 11, 1941 Somewhere in the Pacific

‘Dearest Elaine,

I promise I will be safe and come home to you and our baby. I promise you the world and on all of my love for you that once this war is over, we will go on a ship far more comfortable than this one to someplace warm and safe so that you too can see the beauty of a clear sea…..”


Very poignant. I think you captured the spirit of the time for those people back then who were facing the serious uncertainties of their future and trying their best to reassure and comfort their loved ones.
 
Very poignant. I think you captured the spirit of the time for those people back then who were facing the serious uncertainties of their future and trying their best to reassure and comfort their loved ones.
All of the named Americans in the story have closest loved ones. Josh with his wife and family, Donohue with his wife and child and Ted probably has some as well...

But Ted is in Luzon....
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
What about using the RAF for additional cover? Brest should be in range for the Spitfires Vb used at the time. For a one off strike it should be possible to overwhelm the local defenses.

I assume people are now weighing up benefits/risks of RAF fighter sweeps designed to draw the LW inland at appropriate times.
 
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