Japan's nuclear ace

Qhapaq Inka

This might need to go in ASB, so let me know if you think that's the case.

What if the Japanese had a much more organized, well-funded, and successful atomic weapons program, and it was headquartered in Manchuria rather than Japan proper. Let's also say that the program progresses enough to have a working atom bomb in mid-July, 1945. Due to infrastructure damage and logistics problems, it can't be transferred to Japan in time for use aginst the incoming American forces, but there's a potential to keep it in reserve to use against the Soviets should they invade (was Japan aware that that was imminent at this point btw?), or possibly against a Chinese target, if that looks like an attractive option for some reason.

What does the Japanese command decide to do?
 

RamscoopRaider

Donor
The issue is not so much Japan having this, but Japan having the bomb program and still lasting that long. The Manhattan Project was expensive, extremely so, used a lot of power and resources not all that available. Admittedly the Manhattan Project had a try everything approach, a more focused program would be cheaper, but you can't knock that much below 30% the cost and would require improbable amounts of foresight. Given that the Manhattan project cost as much as 90% of US small arms and 34% of US tank production, even 30% of that is a lot for Japan to pay, what do they give up to have this and what does that do to the war?

Anyways, the only aircraft that can carry it are the G5N or G8N, and only the G8N can actually survive dropping it, but at this point no time for months of developing a doctrine and Silverplate equivalent. So deployment is either a G5N or G8N Kamikaze assuming either can be found at this point, or it's just used as a really big landmine
 
juanml82

juanml82

Assuming they manage to produce a bomb, wouldn't they try to use them against American warships? (Key word: "try").
If we want to picture an even bloodier end to WW2, let's assume the Manhattan Project doesn't happen, or gets far less funds and goes well behind OTL schedule. But a leaner Japanese program has secretly been successful. Come 1946, or earlier if the Japanese nuclear program weakened the Japanese conventional military. The USN invades Japan, expecting heavy losses on both sides. Beneath the waves, a nuclear mine detonates and sinks most of the invasion flotilla.
 

RamscoopRaider

Donor
juanml82 said:
Assuming they manage to produce a bomb, wouldn't they try to use them against American warships? (Key word: "try").
If we want to picture an even bloodier end to WW2, let's assume the Manhattan Project doesn't happen, or gets far less funds and goes well behind OTL schedule. But a leaner Japanese program has secretly been successful. Come 1946, or earlier if the Japanese nuclear program weakened the Japanese conventional military. The USN invades Japan, expecting heavy losses on both sides. Beneath the waves, a nuclear mine detonates and sinks most of the invasion flotilla.
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US CAP was too strong, odds of a heavy bomber getting through was about nil and they knew it. Using it via kamikaze sub runs into similar issue. As a sea mine it could work, but it would have to be a bottom mine thus in relatively shallow water

The war is unlikely to last that much longer even without a US A-Bomb, between August Storm, the incoming famine, and the B-29's burning 2-3 cities a week Japan is still screwed. Plus with the Typhoon scheduled to wreck preparations for invading Japan in the Fall, likely Japan would surrender before the invasion in '46
 
juanml82

juanml82

RamscoopRaider said:
US CAP was too strong, odds of a heavy bomber getting through was about nil and they knew it. Using it via kamikaze sub runs into similar issue. As a sea mine it could work, but it would have to be a bottom mine thus in relatively shallow water
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Yep, hence using it at the invasion beaches. As you say, for problem to make that happen is whether the war lasts long enough for an invasion to take place. Question: if the Manhattan project isn't given priority, what happens to the development of the B-29? The USAAF would still have the B-17 and B-24s to attack Japan, but they have a smaller bomb load
 

RamscoopRaider

Donor
juanml82 said:
Yep, hence using it at the invasion beaches. As you say, for problem to make that happen is whether the war lasts long enough for an invasion to take place. Question: if the Manhattan project isn't given priority, what happens to the development of the B-29? The USAAF would still have the B-17 and B-24s to attack Japan, but they have a smaller bomb load
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It was unrelated, B-29 requirement dates back to 1938, specs to late '39, ordered spring 41. It would be on schedule
 

Qhapaq Inka

Changundramon said:
Japan was wasting resources on 2 separate programs of atomic bomb development, navy and army 1 each.
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Let's say then in this scenario, only the Army gets the authorization and resources to work on this project, and again, it's being developed in Manchuria. Even though Japan itself was getting pounded throughout 1945, the Japanese army's position in Manchuria and China was still fairly strong before the Soviet invasion on August 9 (correct me if I'm wrong). Assuming the Kwantung Army is in charge of the development of the bomb, and creates one just a few weeks before the Soviet invasion, what are the best options for its use?
 

Barry Bull

Donor
Qhapaq Inka said:
Let's say then in this scenario, only the Army gets the authorization and resources to work on this project, and again, it's being developed in Manchuria. Even though Japan itself was getting pounded throughout 1945, the Japanese army's position in Manchuria and China was still fairly strong before the Soviet invasion on August 9 (correct me if I'm wrong). 0Assuming the Kwantung Army is in charge of the development of the bomb, and creates one just a few weeks before the Soviet invasion, what are the best options for its use?
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The Kwantung Army's best divisions had been transferred to other theater by that point already and it collapsed rapidly in the Soviet invasion in OTL. Also, the ROC Army is being retrained and reequipped by USA, they would be ready to launch a counterattack by 1946. So, the Japanese position in mid 1945 is bad enough, but things would have gotten worse later.

Just one atomic bomb, esp. the type that cannot be lifted by any IJA bombers, can only be used as a mine. One can use it to stop one of Soviet invasion routes that goes through the Greater Khingan Range, but that hardly stop the Invasion.

If the bomb can be airlifted, an attack against either the Trans Siberian Railway or the Port of Vladivostok, both critical logistic infrastructure. However, destroying one means the other stay intact and the Soviet Far East Forces can be supplied.

The sole good target in China would be Chonghing, China's war captial, but that's too far away.

Also, the sky was pretty much controlled by the Allies by that stage, any bomber attack risked being shot down.

One atomic bomb is not sufficient to turn the tide.
 

RamscoopRaider

Donor
Qhapaq Inka said:
Let's say then in this scenario, only the Army gets the authorization and resources to work on this project, and again, it's being developed in Manchuria. Even though Japan itself was getting pounded throughout 1945, the Japanese army's position in Manchuria and China was still fairly strong before the Soviet invasion on August 9 (correct me if I'm wrong). Assuming the Kwantung Army is in charge of the development of the bomb, and creates one just a few weeks before the Soviet invasion, what are the best options for its use?
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Okay so the resources come out of the Army's budget. Which means they need to lose a lot of resources to pay for it, fewer tanks, fewer trucks, fewer AT guns, less artillery. Plus now in addition to the IJN, the IJA will have a long range heavy bomber to carry the thing, meaning resources going away from fighter development to design one that probably will not be operational.

Bomb probably used as a landmine against Soviets
 

Hilarious Bolloc

Qhapaq Inka said:
Let's say then in this scenario, only the Army gets the authorization and resources to work on this project, and again, it's being developed in Manchuria. Even though Japan itself was getting pounded throughout 1945, the Japanese army's position in Manchuria and China was still fairly strong before the Soviet invasion on August 9 (correct me if I'm wrong). Assuming the Kwantung Army is in charge of the development of the bomb, and creates one just a few weeks before the Soviet invasion, what are the best options for its use?
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Butterflies - Soviet Union wants to keep Manchuria, USA is even more determined that they do not. Soviets cite massive casualties as justification, but relent when they're sure that they've transported everything that exists of the program to Russia.

However, if a device exists, this may mean that the Japanese are not so ready to surrender as OTL, and probably want to bury the weapon on one of that (correctly identified) landing beaches on Kyushu rater than use it in Manchuria.
 

ObssesedNuker

pattersonautobody said:
Wasn't the Japanese program doing better than the German one?

If it does work, a kamikaze submarine is the most likely delivery system.
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On the theoretical side, yes. On the engineering and organizational side, no. Part of the problem was quite simply material: as Japanese nuclear scientists pointed out during and after the war, there was no way for Japan to get the raw uranium ore required... no adequate deposits were known. Deposits were identified and exploited decades after in Japanese controller territory (most noteworthily, given recent events, in North Korea), but obviously that was with prospecting and mining technology decades more advanced...
 
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