Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL

My, a story of Italian revolution of 19th century! Have you ever read the book called The Gadfly by Irish writer Ethel Voynich? If you haven't then you must give it a try, it is about this era and it's one of the best!
 

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I could make one if you provide me with a list of territorial changes in the TL. I have a vague idea of what Europe looks like but I'd rather have a list.
Sure! I'll DM it to you as soon as I can
 

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My, a story of Italian revolution of 19th century! Have you ever read the book called The Gadfly by Irish writer Ethel Voynich? If you haven't then you must give it a try, it is about this era and it's one of the best!
I haven't, what's it about? A more successful 1848 as I've written about?
 

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Maybe it will be, maybe it will not happen.
I'm too much of a cynic to truly believe that swords will be forged into plows Austria and Prussia will till the German field in amity forever, Bismarck or not Bismarck (who is anyway coming into maturity, and it is difficult to think that he'll not be attracted to politics).
My guess is that things are slowly moving toward a two-Germanies scenario, with Prussia the hegemon in the North and the southern states under the thumb of Austria.
Another reasonable guess is that Prussia is more satisfied with the outcome and will not start the army reform and re-armament policy they adopted IOTL after the humiliation of Olmutz.
I don't know what's going to happen in Austria, in particular if Maximilian gets the crown. However, the situation in the Habsburg domains is far from stable, what with the patched-up situation in Hungary and the unsolved problems of the many different nationalities in the empire.
Then there are the Balkans, the usual spot to start troubles (you might look at Wallachia and Moldavia, where the upheaval of 1848 had significant impact, but also Serbia).
Which brings us to Russia and the Ottomans. A war with the Ottomans is always in the cards, and it is a given that neither the UK nor France would be happy with a major Russian expansion (and the Italian Confederation will probably get a piece of the action too). At which point, there are three possibilities: Austria stays on the sidelines, and we have a TTL analogue of the war of Crimea; Austria supports Russia, and it's going to be a much serious war, which will pull in also Sweden on the UK/France side, while Prussia is likely to stay out of it; Austria sides with UK/France, which would put Russia in an impossible position (but Austria will want a piece of the actions in the Balkans, the above mentioned Moldavia and Wallachia as protectorates, and Serbia as well. It is unlikely they get all of this, since it would give Austria a complete control of the Danube and pushes Russia completely out of the Balkans, but in any case it would stoke the fires for a future Austro-Russian confrontation).
All of this means that it is very, very unlikely that Europe will stay at peace for a long time, the more so since the impact of the revolutions of 1848 has been more significant ITTL.
It appears that it's not the time for a united Germany to arise, they'll have better luck next time maybe!

Bismarck could well appear into our story but let's just say that with our 1848 and it's developements he might not be the lion he was otl, it just depends if he's able to wrestle from the liberals the control of the German Unification movement. Maximillian was pretty liberal but also smarter and more educated than FJ as during their youths Maximillian went above expectations. A United States of Greater Austria is definitely not in the cards but other nationalities and liberals might be happier with Austrian ITTL or maybe Maximillian could do something drastic if the reward is high enough.

About war: removing N III from the picture history changes bigly: he was the reason behind the Crimean War with his posturing that induced the Russians to attack the Ottomans. With Cavignac I find it very hard that Russia and France go to war but it's more likely that the Ottomans continue their slow decline and then for the Russians to deal the finishing blow. Russian expansion must be kept in check and the other Great Powers will definitely do this, assuming Russia threatens the balance.
 
I haven't, what's it about? A more successful 1848 as I've written about?
It is a story of that era, but not an AU. The story was published in 1897, written by Irish writer Ethel Voynich. In short it's about an English young man called Arthur Burton, who travels to Italy to study to be a priest, but after some shocking dicovery and a betrayal, he decided to escape from Italy, ended up spend few years in South America and eventually return to Italy as a revolutionary. Since the story is not an AU, it is not "more successful" as you put it, but it is still one of the best classic story I've ever read. The ending is rather tragic though, my mom cried everytime when she read about the execution of the protagonist, hell the chapter of his execution was even selected into our textbook, it was just impressive and heat breaking!
You can check it on Goodreads.
 
Bismarck could well appear into our story but let's just say that with our 1848 and it's developements he might not be the lion he was otl, it just depends if he's able to wrestle from the liberals the control of the German Unification movement. Maximillian was pretty liberal but also smarter and more educated than FJ as during their youths Maximillian went above expectations. A United States of Greater Austria is definitely not in the cards but other nationalities and liberals might be happier with Austrian ITTL or maybe Maximillian could do something drastic if the reward is high enough
The first part of Bismarck's life was not exactly promising: in 1851 he was posted at the Confederation Diet as one of the Prussian representatives, and apparently he got the position because he was a supporter of an appeasement with Austria (but while serving on the Diet, B. always maneuvered, without much success, to carve out a position of preeminence for Prussia in Northern Germany). His tenure was ended when FW IV, after a stroke, had to give the regency to his brother and heir Wilhelm , who was much more inclined towards the liberals and considered B. a reactionary of the deepest dye: B. was then posted at the Prussian embassy in St. Petersburg. However in 1862 the liberals mismanaged their playbook when they refused to grant to the king the budget the War Minister, von Roon, had requested to continue the modernization of the army and substantially increase the recruitment. The king never forgave them, and thought that Bismarck might be a good candidate for Chancellor, but it didn't work since B. asked for full powers. However he was moved from St. Petersburg to the more prominent embassy in Paris, and after new elections in Prussia (which were a success for the liberals), called B. back to Berlin. Two weeks later, he was appointed Chancellor.
As you can see, Bismarck's political career might have floundered at any time during the 1850s (his maneuvering at the Diet did not endear him to the other German states); if the liberals had been less adamant in their opposition to the increased budget for the army (or, as maybe more likely ITTL, the army reforms are lagging and there is not the budget crisis) B. might be stuck in St. Petersburg for another decade.
About war: removing N III from the picture history changes bigly: he was the reason behind the Crimean War with his posturing that induced the Russians to attack the Ottomans. With Cavignac I find it very hard that Russia and France go to war but it's more likely that the Ottomans continue their slow decline and then for the Russians to deal the finishing blow. Russian expansion must be kept in check and the other Great Powers will definitely do this, assuming Russia threatens the balance.
You're correct: the crisis of the Holy Sites in Palestine was artificially built by LN to gain more support from the conservative Catholics in France, and Cavaignac would never embark in such a provocation. However, the situation in Moldavia and Wallachia was quite unstable, with the Russian pushing to get an official role, and the Austrians worried by the possibility of a Russian expansion which might cause problem to the navigation on the Danube: sooner or later some incident will spark a Russo-Ottoman war.
Additionally, Cavaignac is going to die in 1854, which means that the French Republic has 5 years to become stable (and in any case the catholic vote will become important for the next Assembly election). I don't think LN will have another chance, nor that he will marry Eugenie, but the conservative will have time to sort out their differences too. Who knows who will be the next president? Will there be another attempt to go back to monarchy?
 

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The first part of Bismarck's life was not exactly promising: in 1851 he was posted at the Confederation Diet as one of the Prussian representatives, and apparently he got the position because he was a supporter of an appeasement with Austria (but while serving on the Diet, B. always maneuvered, without much success, to carve out a position of preeminence for Prussia in Northern Germany). His tenure was ended when FW IV, after a stroke, had to give the regency to his brother and heir Wilhelm , who was much more inclined towards the liberals and considered B. a reactionary of the deepest dye: B. was then posted at the Prussian embassy in St. Petersburg. However in 1862 the liberals mismanaged their playbook when they refused to grant to the king the budget the War Minister, von Roon, had requested to continue the modernization of the army and substantially increase the recruitment. The king never forgave them, and thought that Bismarck might be a good candidate for Chancellor, but it didn't work since B. asked for full powers. However he was moved from St. Petersburg to the more prominent embassy in Paris, and after new elections in Prussia (which were a success for the liberals), called B. back to Berlin. Two weeks later, he was appointed Chancellor.
As you can see, Bismarck's political career might have floundered at any time during the 1850s (his maneuvering at the Diet did not endear him to the other German states); if the liberals had been less adamant in their opposition to the increased budget for the army (or, as maybe more likely ITTL, the army reforms are lagging and there is not the budget crisis) B. might be stuck in St. Petersburg for another decade.

You're correct: the crisis of the Holy Sites in Palestine was artificially built by LN to gain more support from the conservative Catholics in France, and Cavaignac would never embark in such a provocation. However, the situation in Moldavia and Wallachia was quite unstable, with the Russian pushing to get an official role, and the Austrians worried by the possibility of a Russian expansion which might cause problem to the navigation on the Danube: sooner or later some incident will spark a Russo-Ottoman war.
Additionally, Cavaignac is going to die in 1854, which means that the French Republic has 5 years to become stable (and in any case the catholic vote will become important for the next Assembly election). I don't think LN will have another chance, nor that he will marry Eugenie, but the conservative will have time to sort out their differences too. Who knows who will be the next president? Will there be another attempt to go back to monarchy?
Cavignac died in 1857 but I don't know why he died, he wasn't even that old! Cavignac would definitely win another mandate if he sought it and he will ITTL because he sees that his job as a moderate republican is to cement the institutions and create the basis of the republic, like some kind of divine duty. I can definitely see him die on the job though and being replaced by Thiers as conservative-liberal dominance will continue. France will remain a republic as long as it's not humiliated or something drastic happens but I cannot guarantee how long the Republic will last.

Lastly the Eastern Question will become quite interesting ITTL as the conflict between Britain and Russia escalates in the Great Game that will take place for the reminder of the century
 
Cavignac died in 1857 but I don't know why he died, he wasn't even that old! Cavignac would definitely win another mandate if he sought it and he will ITTL because he sees that his job as a moderate republican is to cement the institutions and create the basis of the republic, like some kind of divine duty. I can definitely see him die on the job though and being replaced by Thiers as conservative-liberal dominance will continue. France will remain a republic as long as it's not humiliated or something drastic happens but I cannot guarantee how long the Republic will last.
You're right, he died in 1857, 55 years old. I have not been able to find out the cause of death, but in the mid 19th century many died at that age. Medicine was not really advanced.
Cavaignac is certainly likely to win a second mandate, but it depends how French economy recovers and who will have a majority at the next elections of the Assembly
 
17. Europe 1850s

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Courtesy of @Drex here we have our very own first European Map!
 
18. THE FIRST CAVOUR GOVERNMENT

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18. THE FIRST CAVOUR GOVERNMENT


The years between 1850 and 1860 were years of great economic, political, commercial and military development throughout the peninsula, especially in the north.

In 1850, after two years of constituent assembly, the Italian Confederation (IC) was proclaimed in Milan with the proclamation of Vittorio Emanuele II president of the Confederation inside the cathedral of Milan in an elaborate ceremony that would mark the birth of the first truly modern Italian state. Turin would have remained the capital of the Kingdom of Sardinia, the largest state of the confederation, but Milan would have become the capital of the IC since the structures to house the Confederate Parliament and the Confederate Senate were already present as well as the various ministries of the institution and the Sforzesco castle was renovated as a residence for the king when he visited the capital.

Cesare Balbo resigned from his position as Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Sardinia citing the stress of managing and reorganizing the new territories and the new power that Piedmont found itself with. While resigning from his post he advised king Vittorio Emanuele II to pick Camillo Benso of Cavour as the successor of Balbo, citing both his exploit in the London conference and his very successful tenure of the ministers of commerce and finance during the premiership of Balbo. The king approved the decision and so Cavour was made Prime Minister of Sardinia and de facto premier of the Confederation in 1850. One of the first acts of Cavour was the foundation of the Liberal Federalist Party in Turin along with his political associates from various factions that decided to throw their lot along with the cunning new Prime Minister, to politically legitimize their rule by creating the first modern political party in Italy. With Sardinia Piedmont being the most powerful and richest state of the peninsula it was obvious that the Confederal Parliement would come under the dominance of the Piedemontese government, which now included many Lombards and Venetians like Carlo Cattaneo which became Minister of Confederal Affairs in the Cavour government; this dominance was not an oppression: the other states still retained some kind of political freedom and control on their internal affairs but were all oriented towards the north which was the guarantor of the Confederation.

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Cavour during his first government

Cavour's first action as Prime Minister was a diplomatic outreach to European nations to establish political, diplomatic and commercial ties: Cavour's idea was of an rapprochement with France and Great Britain as guarantors of the Confederation against Austria, showing Italy as a reliable commercial partner and indispensable ally. Strong ties were established especially with the French Republic which agreed to a bilateral trade agreement to lower tariffs, especially on products such as coal and iron, while the London financiers showed themselves willing to provide loans at very low rates by virtue of the bonds that Cavour had established in the British Empire during his summer stay. The main enemy remained Austria. The Confederation began to spread all over the world with embassies in Europe, America and the Middle East.

With secured access to raw materials and capital, the government concentrated its efforts on the industrialization of the country on the English model, with the construction of numerous railway lines such as Turin-Venice and Turin-Rome which helped to bring them closer and closer. the population. The construction of railways facilitated trade and the concentration of industries in large production centers especially where the industrialization process was already underway as in Piedmont, Lombardy and Tuscany: Milan, Turin, Florence and Genoa became industrial and commercial centers interconnected thanks to the large railway network; the agrarian reform functionally reorganized the land ownership in an integral and capitalist way, according to which the countryside had to efficiently produce the resources to be allocated to the cities that would transform and ship them abroad to be sold, leaving masses of peasants who migrated to the cities where they became the first urban proletariat. In Milan the Confederate stock exchange opened, an institution already present since the times of the Austrians, in which the first debt securities and the first listed companies on the market such as the railways were treated, this financial concentration would lead Milan to become the economic center of the Confederation.

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Thanks to the effective economic policy of Cavour, Lombardy and Piedmont started seeing rapid industrialization in their lands

Industrialization and economic growth had given rise to social changes that had to be addressed quickly by the government which had the constitutional duty to provide education to its citizens. Of course, this education was a basic and not yet complete education, addressed to the literacy of the population and the spread of Italian culture with the adoption of Confederal teaching methods. The increase in literacy also gave impetus to a cultural change, a transition from the old local dialects to a language which, although still in training, was taking on definite and universal characters as well as an ever wider understanding by the population; this was followed by the production of literal works, the most famous of which is undoubtedly Alessandro Manzoni's Promessi Sposi, which became one of the best-selling books in the Confederation, which will be worth the title of the "Book that made Italy". The cultural flourishing was not only literary but also artistic, scientific and philosophical concentrated in the cities of Milan, Venice, Florence and Rome which confirmed to be great Italian cultural centers.

After half a decade Cavour became interested in the issues of the urban proletariat after there were some signs of Marxist worker unrest in the main national factories. The count intended to protect the masses from the red spectre, directing their ideology towards a post unitary patriotism that saw the Confederation as the center of Italy's political and social life. So it was that to avoid a widespread anger of the working classes against the government and the industrialists who were making a great contribution to the progress of the country, Cavour issued the "Labor Code" one of the first codes on the matter, in which employers were obliged to ensure a minimum wage (even if low) to their employees, together with minimum safety conditions, child labor was restricted to certain not excessively dangerous professions, reiterating that children had to go to school and not to the factory and the creation of the first labour unions was allowed, subject to control by the Carabinieri to avoid the infiltration of red elements. The Labor Code relaxed the situation and prevented social unrest, making the count gain prestige among the masses.

Carlo Alberto died of liver failure in 1849. The last years of his life had been blessed by the victorious war against Austria but cursed by the clash between the state and the church that greatly anguished the monarch. At his death a monumental funeral was organized in Turin in which dignitaries and foreign leaders participated thanks to the enormous prestige that the man had accumulated and his body was sent for a tour of the main cities of the Confederation before being buried in the chapel of the Savoy. Vittorio Emanuele II was crowned king of Piedmont and president of the Confederation on the death of his father. At the coronation Cavour suggested to the king and his wife, Maria Adelaide, to start a tour of both the Confederation and the European courts to present the Savoy family as probable masters of Italy; the initiative had great success especially in Great Britain where Vittorio Emanuele II made a good impression with Queen Victoria. The departure of the king allowed the Prime Minister to implement his plan of separation between state and church, commissioning Giuseppe Siccardi to draft the famous "Siccardi laws" aimed at the abolition of the medieval privileges of the clergy, the suppression of the mendicant monastic orders and the expropriation of most of the church's land and real estate properties which were used as collateral for new loans taken from London. Only medical orders were spared and the inability to reach an agreement with the conservatives prevented the promulgation of civil marriage laws. The pope and the prelates loyal to him responded with encyclicals and excommunications while the lower clergy and some bishops, especially in the north, were in favor of this reorganization feeling the need of the church to be an ally of Italy rather than an antagonist, creating a fine division within the Italian Catholic community. When Vittorio Emanuele II returned from his tour in Italy and Europe he demanded to review the laws but never threatened to fire Cavour, the man was too important for his own sake.

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Vittorio Emanuele II, king of Sardinia and president of the Confederation

The reorganization of the armed forces also began. The first act was the establishment of the Italian Confederal Navy, obtained through the merger of all the pre-unification naval forces and the start of a naval industry in Genoa, La Spezia, Piombino and Palermo aimed at the construction of steamboats with which to replace the old ones sailing ships. The Confederal Army was also created on paper, while in reality the real creation of a unique combat force would come years later: the Italian armies were divided: there were the Piedmontese who had the best equipment and training, the Tuscans, the Sicilians and Romans, each trained and armed in their own way with particular strategies and tactics. The creation of a central command was necessary to begin the organization and General Bava became the first chief of staff. Given the success of infantry specialties such as the Bersaglieri Alessandro LaMarmora was commissioned to expand the body to two divisions that would become the army's spearhead and Giuseppe Garibaldi was contacted by the army to train guerrilla units of which he was an expert.

In 1859 the Rattazzi Law was issued, the first Confederal administrative reorganization that established 7 constituent states of the Confederation: the Kingdom of Sardinia, made up of it's original territory and the two duchies of Lombardy and Veneto/Verona which were annexed following the victorious war in 1848, the military and industrial powerhouse of the peninsula; the Republic of Venice, along with much of the old dogado, a bit bourgeois and focused on trade in the Adriatic and promoting it's charme as an island city; the United Provinces of Emilia and Romagna, a still minly agrarian republic established after the escape of the rulers of Emilia outside Italy and the revolts in Romagna, its landowners hold much sway over the population but the throught land reform has reduced their influence, the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, notoriously the only state still ruled by a Von Habsburg in Italy, on it's way to become an industrial region; the Principality of Adria; the Roman Republic, which was the main opponent of Sardinia's dominance thanks to the influence of Mazzini and not much else since the region is underdeveloped and the Kingdom of Sicily, one of the most important areas of the Confederation due to it's strategic location and the energy of his king Ferdinand who survived a grave illness and was on it's way to recover.

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Italy in 1860 following the Rattazzi Law, courtesy of @Drex
 

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Well, that was quite the update. A small nitpick on the map: I believe that "Adria" and " Roman Republic" were swapped. Just a few curiosities. First, how exactly is TTL VE becoming besties with Queen Victoria? I don't see the reason why he should become so different than OTL, where he made a terrible impression in London. I mean, we are talking about the man who OTL said to Empress Eugenia of France that he was delighted at discovering that the women in Paris did not wear underwear, not exactly Victoria's type. Second, is the preparation of the Siccardi laws while the king is abroad OTL? From what I gather, OTL VE was so deeply concerned with his soul's salvation that he studied them thoroughly (first time in his life, since as a kid CA brought him in front of a notary to make him formally promise to give more effort to his studies) and found that they were not against the Catholic doctrine.
 
Who rules Tuscany, again?

Also, I wish the Sick Man of Europe would be allowed to recover. Too bad Italy will probably take Tunisia... Maybe they could keep Libya. Maybe?
 

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Well, that was quite the update. A small nitpick on the map: I believe that "Adria" and " Roman Republic" were swapped. Just a few curiosities. First, how exactly is TTL VE becoming besties with Queen Victoria? I don't see the reason why he should become so different than OTL, where he made a terrible impression in London. I mean, we are talking about the man who OTL said to Empress Eugenia of France that he was delighted at discovering that the women in Paris did not wear underwear, not exactly Victoria's type. Second, is the preparation of the Siccardi laws while the king is abroad OTL? From what I gather, OTL VE was so deeply concerned with his soul's salvation that he studied them thoroughly (first time in his life, since as a kid CA brought him in front of a notary to make him formally promise to give more effort to his studies) and found that they were not against the Catholic doctrine.
Queen Victoria did, in her documents, paint a nice description of VE II as a brave man but without manners as we all know VE II was. They're not besties and neither friends I'd say but it's like they have a mutual understanding. VE II was sent away on this tour that lasted months and while he was away Cavour used the time to push through the laws. Of course the king didn't like them much but nothing happened and Cavour retained his seat, it was too petty to be included in the chapter.
 
There are a couple of other mistakes in the map, besides what @Tarabas pointed out.
Gaeta and its surroundings is the the kingdom of Naples, not in Latium as it appears (nowadays Gaeta is in Latium, and what is shown on the map is the modern administrative border, but the change happened only in the late 1920s, after the reclamation of the Pontine marshes). Romagna should be included in the Principality of Adria, to balance things a little better. I don't understand the survival of the kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia: the referendum in Lombardy (and the one held a bit later in Veneto) returned an overwhelming approval for annexation to Sardinia (incidentally, when CA dies, VE gets crowned king of Sardinia, not king of Piedmont), so there is no reason to maintain the government structure that Metternich set up after the Congress of Vienna.
There are however reasons to have a duchy of Milan (governing Lombardy) and a duchy of Verona (governing Veneto and Friuli up to the border): there would be a single parliament in Turin for all of Italy north of the Po (which would facilitate the integration in terms of infrastructures) plus Liguria and Sardinia; having Milan as both the capital of a kingdom and the capital of the Confederation would be too much (Milan will increase anyway in importance on its own, for geographical and economic reasons); it would avoid antagonizing the people of Veneto, which had been governed from the Austrian viceroy in Milan, and would not see any improvement on the past.

There is another very practical reason too: if Lombardy and Venetia are integral part of Sardinia, Cavour could well follow his habit of keeping multiple portfolios, starting as minister for Commerce and Finance (which are two very critical things to improve) for both Sardinia and the Confederation, with Balbo Prime Minister of both (same as Bismarck did IOTL, with Prussia and the NGC first and the Reich after 1870). When Balbo dies or retires, Cavour will smoothly step into its shoes. If there is a separate kingdom of L-V, all this becomes much more awkward (not to mention that diluting the importance of Piedmont and Savoy by the addition of two populous region would be a good thing in itself).

I also fail to understand the reason to give CA an extra 6 years of life: leaving aside the fact that CA's death was caused by liver failure (which cannot be cured or even improved by his better performance in the war) and not by a "broken heart", as the romantic legend goes, keeping him alive longer does not help the narrative (apparently he doesn't do anything worth of mention in these extra years) and put on hold for an extra 6 years a lot of thing, such as Cavour's political career and the economic development of Northern Italy (the years between 1849 and 1852, when he became PM, were very productive in terms of boosting commerce and starting infrastructures).

A last nitpick: the first thing VE should do after getting crowned is a tour of the Confederation members. He still needs a minder to go with him, the man was a bit of a rough diamond
 
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