About the Butterfly Effect
I decided to preempt any possible remarks regarding the dreaded Butterfly Effect (BE) by writing this hopefully clariffying post:
Spatio-Temporal Expansion of the "Butterfly Effect" following the 8 August 1601 POD in Transylvania.
So, in the night of 8/9 August 1601, on a field in Transylvania, something happened differently from OTL and the history changed forever. TTL was thus branched from the common history stem.
We can divide the following time span into roughly four periods for the purpose of examining the BE (Butterfly Effect):
1. Local BE (from the POD to the Pressburg Peace Treaty of April 1602);
2. Extended BE (from the Pressburg Peace Treaty to the beginning of the German War);
3. Generalized BE (from the German War to the Great Powers Conference);
4. Global BE (after the Great Powers Conference).
1. Until the Pressburg Peace Conference, the BE was felt locally:
- Major BE in Romania;
- Significant BE in the Ottoman Empire, Austria, Poland-Lithuania;
- Minor BE in the rest of Europe;
- No BE in other parts of the World.
2. After the Pressburg Peace Conference, the BE was felt in much of Europe:
- Total BE in Romania;
- Major BE in the Ottoman Empire, Austria, Poland-Lithuania, Holy Roman Empire, Italian States;
- Significant BE in the rest of Europe;
- Minor BE in European influenced World;
- No BE in other parts of the World.
3. After the German War, the BE was major all over Europe:
- Total BE in most of Europe;
- Significant BE in remote parts of Europe and European influenced World;
- Minor BE in other parts of the World;
- No BE in Antarctica and maybe other very remote places.
4. After the Great Powers Conference, the BE was truly global in scope:
- Total BE in Europe and European influenced World;
- Significant BE in most other parts of the World;
- Minor BE in some remote areas.
Legend:
-
No BE: Everything is the same as in OTL;
-
Minor BE: Some minor differences in recorded history; Some newly borns are different people;
-
Significant BE: Significant differences in recorded history; Most newly borns are different people;
-
Major BE: History is clearly completely different; All newly borns are different people;
-
Total BE: Almost everything is completely different from OTL.
About Newly Borns: (assuming of course the same parents, both born before the POD)
- If the child is born before the POD, it is the same individual;
- If the child is born in a region with minor BE, it may be the same individual or a slightly different one (even with a different sex);
- If the child is born in a region with significant BE, it is probably a different person from OTL;
- If the child is born in a region with major or total BE, it is certainly a different person.
About the names of Newly Borns: (assuming of course the same parents, both born before the POD)
- If the child has (1) the same sex, (2) is born in the same period / order and (3) the BE did not alter the general name preferences, it will probably have the same name as in OTL.
- Otherwise (conditions 1, 2, 3 not simultaneously true), it will probably have a different name.
Particular Cases:
In the evening, the German Emperor invited all his distinguished guests at a ball marking the official opening of the Great Powers Conference.
The following were present:
- Emperor Siegfried Augustus of Germany (37) with his wife, Empress Sophie (20), the hosts;
- Emperor Philip of Iberia, Italy, Africa and the Americas (21) with his wife, Empress Elisabeth (24), the sister of Christine and King Louis XIII;
- King Louis of France (25) with his wife, Queen Anne (25) and his sister, Princess Christine (23);
- King Sigismund of Sarmatia (60) with his wife, Queen Flora (40), Mihai's daughter;
- Imperator Mihai of Romania (68);
- King Christian of Scandinavia (23) and Queen Catherine of Scandinavia (41);
- Prince Henry Frederick of Britannia (32) with his wife, Princess Henrietta Maria (18), because King James (60) was ill and could not attend the proceedings (he would die in less than one month);
- Princes and Princesses from Slovakia, Croatia, Greece, German States, Italian States;
- Representatives from Rome, Venice, other Italian Republics, German Free States, the Georgians, the Armenians, the Hungarians;
- No one from Russia was present, although an official invitation had been issued;
- Diplomats from all countries.
1. Emperor Siegfried Augustus of Germany = August of Saxony (Wettin), born in 1589, before the POD; Unlike OTL he is still alive in 1626.
2. Empress Sophie - no OTL equivalent, born in 1606 (Major BE).
3. Emperor Philip of Iberia, Italy, Africa and the Americas ~ King Philip IV and III of Castile, Aragon and Portugal (Habsburg), born in 1605 (Significant BE), similar person named identically.
4. Empress Elisabeth = Queen Elisabeth (Isabel), born in 1602 (Minor BE), the same person, still married with Philip.
5. King Louis of France, born in 1601 (six weeks after the POD, no BE in France), the same person.
6. Queen Anne = Anne of Austria, born in 1601 (five weeks after the POD), the same person, still married with Louis XIII.
7. Princess Christine ~ Christine of France, born in 1603 (not in 1606), different person, named identically.
8. King Sigismund of Sarmatia = King Sigismund III Vasa of Poland-Lithuania, born in 1566, before the POD.
9. Queen Flora = Lady Florica of Romania, born before the POD.
10. King Christian of Scandinavia = King Christian of Norway and Denmark, born in 1603 (Minor BE), the same person.
11. Queen Catherine of Scandinavia = Catherine of Sweden, born in 1584, before the POD.
12. Prince Henry Frederick of Britannia = Prince Henry Frederick of England, born in 1594, before the POD; Unlike OTL, he is still alive in 1626 and is going to be King Henry of Britannia in about one month.
13. Princess Henrietta Maria ~ Henrietta Maria of France, born in 1608 (not 1609), different person, named identically.