Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[GSD310]

The World Circa May August 2001:
Northeast Asia and South Asia​

South Korea and North Korea:
The failure of President Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine Policy hurt his standing, so much so that slightly more than halfway through his term, the word “lame duck” was already being associated with him. For a time, Kim turned his focus inwards on economic and social policy and preparing the nation to co-host the 2002 World Cup with Japan. The spring only returned somewhat to Kim’s Presidency in March 2001 when President of the United States John McCain made South Korea his first visit overseas. McCain called South Korea a “frontline” and that the United States will continue and supporting it. It was an apt comment for South Korea could rightly be called the only nation in Northeast Asia that did not fall under China’s sway in 2000.

After McCain left Seoul, however, Kim found himself under attack by President of the Grand National Party (GNP) and National Assembly Member Lee Hoi Chang. Lee said that McCain’s support only applies to the South Korean people and not to the current “failed administration”. Lee also said that South Korea needs to adopt a stronger stance on North Korea. It was a political attack that made the South Korean public realize that the political temperature was about to heat up again for the presidential election was due in December 2002 and that Lee, a former presidential candidate in 1997, was angling to take another shot.

Across the 38th Parallel, Chairman of National Defense Commission Kim Jong Il entertained notions that it might fall to him to reunify the country seeing as Russia and China were once again positioning themselves to challenge the United States. In December 2000, returning from a visit to both Beijing and Moscow, Premier Hong Song Nam reported to Kim Jong Il that China and Russia had cautioned North Korea not to take any “rash actions” and “keep us in the loop”.

In January 2001, Kim visited China. After travelling around Shanghai, he met with President of China Jiang Zemin in which the latter impressed on Kim the importance of conducting economic reform in North Korea. In March 2001, Kim was visited by Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and once again talk of economic reform was brought up. The results of these lobbying, some would say pressure, became evident during North Korea’s May Day celebrations when Kim announced that the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) will hold a National Congress in November 2001, its first in 21 years, to discuss matters such as “economic reforms to strengthen our Juche economy”. Observers of North Korea were abuzz with activity at this announcement; a consensus emerging that China and Russia had pressured North Korea to undertake economic reforms in exchange for ensuring the preservation of Kim’s regime.

Japan:
In the first 6 months of his tenure, Prime Minister Koichi Kato sought to show his mark. He cut spending by going after public works projects and subsidies, cutting corporate taxes, and conducting deregulation and privatization. Much to the relief of those in Jakarta, aid was not cut though this still left Kato’s foreign policy orientation to worry about.

The Japanese General Election was held in October 2000. 6 months was not enough to turn the Japanese economy around, but it was enough to show that Kato had the right intention. On the back of this, Kato was able to increase the LDP’s seats in the House of Representatives from 233 to 242 so that it could form government on its own right without coalition partners though Kato retained the LDP’s coalition with New Komeito and the newly formed New Conservative Party. Meanwhile Yukio Hatoyama led the DPJ to 122 seats in the House of Representatives.

The next 6 months proved trickier for Kato. At a time when the Japanese economy needed to increase its activity and when the United States had gone into a recession in 2001, Kato’s “structural reforms” involved spending cuts intead of stimulating the economy. In cabinet meetings, Kato was pressured to initiate a stimulus package. The Prime Minister insisted that they stay the course even as the stagnant Japanese economy began to slow down.

July 2001 saw the House of Councillors, Japan’s upper house, elections. It was election that all in the LDP gave increased scrutiny. A drop in the number in the LDP seats had caused Ryutaro Hashimoto to resign the prime ministership in 1998. In the event, Kato managed to increase LDP’s seats in the House of Councillors by two. Hardly a resounding endorsement but one with which Kato’s growing detractors to turn into a pretext for unseating him. For the moment, Kato, characterized as always as “pro-China”, holds on.

Kato genuinely feels surprised when characterized as being “pro-China” arguing instead that he was in favor of an equilateral triangle where Japan has close bilateral relationships with both the United States and China. For this reason, Kato was keen to maintain Japan’s close relationship with Indonesia, constantly assuring Indonesian officials who come to visit that continuing investment and aid in Indonesia from Japan was a guarantee. In April 2001, Kato even went as far as conveying the Indonesian Government’s request to the US Government to pressure Freeport into divesting its shares in Irian Jaya to the Indonesian Government. Kato’s failure, however, indicates the McCain Administration’s relatively cool response to him.

Taiwan:
James Soong assumed office as President of Taiwan in May 2000. Aside from maintaining Taiwan’s economic performance, Soong also began to work on cross-strait relations. In August 2000, Soong’s Government approved direct postal, transportation, and trade links between the Kinmen and Matsu Islands controlled by Taiwan with cities in Fujian Province just across the strait. The decision was warmly welcomed by Jiang. When Soong indicated that he would like to attend the APEC Summit in November 2000, Jiang did not object though when he met with Soong at Bandar Sri Begawan, he referred to the latter as the “Delegate from the Province of Taiwan”. Nevertheless, the photo-op between the two, which also included Chief Executive of Hong Kong Tung Chee Hwa showed what a good year 2000 was for China.

The reaction to Soong’s policy would come in 2001. The DPP, led by former Mayor of Taipei Chen Sui Bian, expressed strong opposition to Soong’s policies toward China and sought to build popular support. In what would become known the “Three Toos” speech, Chen said Soong had moved “Too Fast”, “Too Soon”, and “Too Close” with the mainland. The DPP aimed to make its mark at the 2001 Legislative Elections.

From Washington, the McCain Administration kept a watch on Northeast Asia. In late 2000, then President-Elect McCain went into his first State Department briefing and came out bemused. “Just my luck”, he said “Taking office at a time when both Tokyo and Taipei are friendly towards Beijing.”

China:
The year 2000 was a great year as far as China was concerned; the rise of a pro-China Prime Minister of Japan and a President of Taiwan that was friendly towards the mainland on top of another year of strong economic growth.

President Jiang Zemin welcomed Yevgeny Primakov’s rise as President of Russia with some ambivalence. There was no question that China and Russia were natural allies against the United States as Chairman of NPC Li Peng was fond of pointing out. At the same time, Jiang had established a good relationship with Bill Clinton and had hoped that this relationship would continue if Al Gore was elected president. But this was not to be, for it was John McCain who was elected. Jiang last saw Clinton as president at the 2000 APEC Summit. Though genuinely sad that Clinton was on his way out, Jiang’s mind was already on the future. Li Peng spent the end of the year in Moscow overseeing preparations for what would become the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. In January 2001 with only 48 hours left until McCain’s Inauguration, Primakov visited Beijing and together, he and Jiang signed the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.

It was not long before China had its first run-in with the new administration. In April 2001, a Chinese fighter jet and a US Navy signals intelligence airplane collided mid-air with each other. The Chinese pilot was declared dead (he was never found) but the US Navy personnel were detained by the Chinese authorities. The situation was only defused and the US Navy personnel released when a letter was given by the US Government to Chinese Government which may or may not be considered to be an apology depending on who’s reading it.

Another foreign policy issue which Jiang and the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party discussed in early 2001 was the region immediately next to theirs and the nation seeking to establish. For the ASEAN+3 Summit in November 2000, original plans had called for Jiang to offer a Free Trade Agreement between China and ASEAN. However, this idea was scrapped. Jiang used the summit instead to try to “intimidate” President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno in essence softly warning him not to try to challenge China. Upon return to Beijing, Jiang reported his exchange with Try and admitted that Try seemed a tough nut to crack. Li Peng advised Jiang that China had bigger concerns to worry about than Indonesia.

Then in February 2001, as news spread that Indonesia was going to sign its Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Thailand. This time Premier Zhu Rongji spoke up and with an eye to Prime Minister Najib Razak’s visit, argued that China should respect Indonesia’s supremacy in Southeast Asia and not try to encourage Malaysia’s refusal not to be part of Indonesia’s bloc. Zhu was outvoted by the consensus of the Politburo Standing Committee which was that China should use Malaysia to counter Indonesia’s bid for leadership in Southeast Asia.

In March 2001, after Laos’ LPRP National Congress and the National Assembly produced leaders which tended to adopt a more independent stance as it relate to China, discussions about Indonesia became more serious. This was especially more so when it was pointed out that General Secretary of Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) Le Kha Phieu ran the risk of being replaced at the upcoming VCP Congress by those who tended to be “Pro-Indonesian”. The Politburo Standing Committee thus agreed to intervene on a “party-to-party” basis and instruct the VCP to delay its congress to a more favorable time. What Jiang and the Chinese leadership did not count on were the VCP moving of its own accord to remove Le Kha Phieu and install Nong Duc Manh as acting general secretary. Jiang also counted even less that most of Southeast Asia would be displeased at the intervention effort.

At a Politburo Standing Committee meeting after the completion of the VCP National Congress, there was a consensus that what happened in Vietnam was to the benefit of Indonesia. Li Peng however continued to insist that there were more important matters to attend to. Jiang agreed with him; Indonesia was nothing compared to what China was aspiring to.

“Comrades, we launched an unmanned spacecraft in January, our application to host the Olympics in 2008 will be decided in July, and we’re joining the WTO in November”, said Jiang “What have we to worry about a few good fortunes going Indonesia’s way? They’re a long way from beating us. Well they beat us on the football field a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t count, right? Our concern is the bald eagle across the ocean.”

Domestically, the CCP began to look forward to the matter of succession where it was becoming clear that Jiang Zemin was showing no intention of departing the scene. As 2000 wore on, Jiang increasingly became close with Li Peng. Where Jiang was reluctant to leave the scene, Li wanted to retain influence even after retirement and the two made common cause.

October 2000 saw the CCP’s Central Committee meet in its annual session. While Zhu Rongji introduced China’s next Five Year Plan, Jiang spoke about the international situation and how China needed to find strategic partners and build a multipolar world. Over the next few years, China would need “steady hand leadership” as it moves forward. Those present at the plenum quickly that Jiang was making a pitch to stay on. While there was resistance to the idea of Jiang staying on, most were unsure about Hu Jintao. His blandness, passivity, and caution even in the face of Jiang toying with the idea of not relinquishing power made people wonder if he has what it takes to be China’s leader.

In the end, The Central Committee’s annual plenum ended with Hu’s position as leader-in-waiting looking shaky. Once again, Hu missed out on being named Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. At the same time, the CCP Central Committee agreed to expand the Politburo Standing Committee’s composition from 7 members to 9. The two additional seats were given to Secretary of the Central Politics and Legal Affairs Commission Luo Gan and Vice Premier Wen Jiabao. The former was seen as Li’s protégé though acceptable to Jiang and the latter, being groomed for succession of the premiership by Zhu Rongji, seen as a way to keep Zhu onside. Both immediately gained status as alternate leaders in the event that Hu did not eventuate.

Hu was not unaware what was up. In April 2001, he chose to take up the duty of asking the VCP to delay its National Congress. Other Politburo Standing Committee members shied away from taking up what would be an unpopular duty but that was precisely the point. A failure though the intervention on the VCP was, Hu won points as far as being a loyal party member was concerned. The Next CCP National Congress would not be due until late 2002 and there will be plenty of jockeying to be done.

India:
With a continually growing economy, a budget deficit at a time when military spending was required to face off against Pakistan, and the nation’s population crossing the 1 billion mark, there was already plenty in Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s plate. But things were happening abroad too. In September 2000, Vajpayee visited Washington DC finding Bill Clinton very courteous as always but noticing that Clinton was desperate to lock in India as a partner against China and Russia. Then a month later, Primakov visited India and was keen that India would become Russia’s partner. After all, it was Primakov’s vision that Russia, China, and India form a triangle to counter American influence. Vajpayee did not commit to anything that would unduly limit his options. He wanted to see if this “New Cold War” was anything like the old.

This was not to say that the Indian Government was not concerned about the world around it. Pakistan was always on top of the list as far as security threats are concerned but as George Fernandes, the hawkish Minister of Defence, was wont of saying, China was “also right up there”. China’s “great year” in 2000 meant that it became more urgent for India to find a way to check China’s progress. This was where Indonesia figured into Vajpayee’s calculations.

Vajpayee had initially identified Indonesia as a potential check on China’s influence on the basis of size alone. By the end of 2000, with Indonesia’s strong economic growth and its more assertive stance on foreign policy, Vajpayee began to think that India should come to an arrangement with Indonesia as to how to relate to China.

This arrangement was completed in June 2001 when President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno visited India. Though the formal agreements signed was important, the informal agreement was also important too. As Vajpayee explained to his cabinet, India would not get in the way of an “assertive Indonesia” in Southeast Asia and would use the leverage it has in Myanmar, where it has sought to counter China’s influence, to encourage the isolated junta-led nation to be part of Indonesia’s bloc. In exchange, Indonesia will build closer ties with Pakistan, in particular with Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf who admired Try, and lobby in favor of India.

There were some murmurs around the table that the informal arrangement with Indonesia meant that India now have to tolerate Musharraf’s existence given that it was contingent on Try Sutrisno building a good relationship with Musharraf. Vajpayee told his ministers that he allowed Try to make the offer to build closer ties with Musharraf so the Indonesian president can feel that he’s offering something back. He said that Indonesia would have already fulfilled its part of the bargain if it was able to become a legitimate counterweight to China.

Pakistan:
Chief Executive of Pakistan Musharraf continues to consolidate his position. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been detained since the 1999 Coup, has been sentenced to life imprisonment though appeals by the Saudi Royal Family had caused Musharraf to send Sharif into exile there in December 2000. The Supreme Court of Pakistan has also declared Musharraf’s coup in 1999 to be legal.

Not all was well. In early February 2001, after news that the President of Indonesia had conducted mass arrests on those affiliated with Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah had arrived, Musharraf’s closest colleagues gathered to intrigue. The Pakistani Army’s officer corps had an Islamist bent and had cozy links with the nation’s Mullah. Musharraf had played this game dutifully. He had maintained the relationship and had even continued the nation’s stance of recognizing and supporting the Taliban Regime next door in Afghanistan. At the same time however, Musharraf had spent some of his formative years and had fancied himself a reformer and modernizer like Kemal Ataturk. Now this background counted against him.

“In the past he wanted to be Ataturk, in the present will he be like Try Sutrisno?” asked Director General of Inter-Service Intelligence Lt. Gen. Mahmud Ahmed.

Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno was indeed the present-day world leader that Musharraf looked up to. Their military backgrounds along with their non-infantry origins (Musharraf from the artillery, Try from the engineers) meant they had a lot to bond over, though Try seemed reluctant that Indonesia become too close to Pakistan. But this changed as 2001 wore on. Musharraf and the Pakistani delegation were welcomed warmly in Indonesia when they attended the G-15 Summit in May 2001 and Musharraf returned the welcome when Try visited the next month.

Musharraf was not unaware of what was going on behind him and spent 2001 consolidating his position. In May 2001, prior to his departure to Jakarta to attend the G-15 Summit in Jakarta, Musharraf relinquished his position as Chief of Army Staff and appointed Aziz Khan. Aziz Khan was a supporter of Musharraf but was also acceptable to the Islamist elements in the Pakistani Army; holding anti-American views. Once back from the G-15 Summit, Musharraf further consolidated his positioned. He sidelined President Rafiq Tarar and assumed the presidency for himself in June. Musharraf however still held on to his office as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs Committee and as Chief Executive of Pakistan, the latter being the office he had assumed for himself after the 1999 coup.

Bangladesh:
Bangladesh initially recognized secularism in its constitution at independence but successive governments and amendments had chipped away at this so that Islam had become the state religion. The news of Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno arresting Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah operatives and his strong overall stance against Islamism gave Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina energy to fight her own struggle; Hasina being the target of a foiled assassination attempt in July 2000.

2001 was to be a busy year for Bangladesh. It was due to host the Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Dhaka and to this end, President of South Africa and current Chairman of NAM Thabo Mbeki visited Bangladesh in December 2000 to ensure preparations were well and good. Hasina assured Mbeki that they were. Mbeki also used the opportunity to visit Opposition Leader Khaleda Zia. Zia, wife of late Presiden Ziaur Rahman and former prime minister, pledged that if elected, she would hold the NAM Summit.

A bipartisan commitment to holding the NAM Summit was important for 2001 was an election. Already the political temperature was rising with violence abound. Under provisions of the Bangladeshi Constitution, Hasina handed over the reins of government to a caretaker government in June 2001. The Caretaker Government was headed by former Chief Justice Latifur Rahman. Though ostensibly only there to hold the elections, the Rahman-led Caretaker Government will also have the additional task of preparing Bangladesh to host the NAM Summit in October 2001.

Rest of South Asia:
Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake’s government was re-elected in December 2000. Adopting a hardline approach, Wickeremanayake was beginning to equip Sri Lankan Army units with Pindad Rifles bought from Indonesia in its campaign against the Tamil Tigers. Though adopting a hardline stance, Sri Lanka suffered a setback when Tamil Tigers rebels attacked Bandaranaike International Airport in July 2001 causing extensive damage to the airport and adjoining Air Force Base.

Aside from Sri Lanka, Pindad was interested in selling its assault rifles to Nepal. The CEO of Pindad Maj. Gen. Djoko Subroto got to make a presentation about Pindad’s capabilities in front of Crown Prince Dipendra, who was an assault rifle enthusiast. Djoko hoped to make the sale considering that Nepal was embroiled in a civil war against Nepalese Maoists but Dipendra was not interested. Dipendra’s aide told Djoko that 1st June 2001, that Dipendra was not getting on with his family and was just looking for an excuse to a avoid a family dinner that night.

April 2001 saw Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita visit Bhutan to discuss establishing diplomatic relations.

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China is going through what is happening OTL plus the fact that they got friendlier than usual governments in Japan and Taiwan. Pretty much South Korea is the only nation in the region that hasn’t been pulled into China’s orbit.

Much as Australia, India sees Indonesia as the nation that could be used to counterbalance China. OTL Vajpayee actually reduces tensions with China in the early 2000s. But an Indonesia that survives and be the first to get out of the Asian Financial Crisis does change calculations.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa May August 2001:
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Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan:
After he had concluded a Treaty of Friendship with China in January 2001, next on President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov’s list of bilateral relations to be converted into an alliance were those with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. They were natural choices, being 3 post-Soviet Republics, and were already familiar with Russia and China, having been involved with them as part of the Shanghai Five, an informal gathering of nations.

In August 2001, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Narbayev, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, and President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev joined Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of China Jiang Zemin to sign the Shanghai Pact and form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO was formed for the purposes of mutual security and economic cooperation.

Uzbekistan:
Under President Islam Karimov’s leadership, Uzbekistan had already withdrawn from the Commonwealth of Independent States’ Collective Security Treaty in 1999. Primakov’s emergence as the next President of Russia only made Karimov more certain that Uzbekistan should adopt a more independent foreign policy; keeping its distance from Moscow.

In the meantime, Uzbekistan made a friend in an unlikely place. To fuel its textile industry and exports as well as its economic growth as a whole, Indonesia had begun increasing its imports of Uzbek cotton. Indonesia’s demand was rapacious. In January 2001, Indonesian Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo came to Uzbekistan in January 2001, his second visit in 6 months. Karimov himself visited Jakarta in July 2001, concluding an agreement that would secure cotton supply to Indonesia for the next 5 years. Karimov left Jakarta thinking that Uzbekistan had a lot in common with Indonesia.

Iran:
The Reformist victory in the February 2000 Legislative Elections energized President Mohammad Khatami and his supporters so much that when reality bit, it was all the more deflating. Though president, the Iranian political system was such, that control of the Armed Forces and the courts, in short real power, lay in the hand of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A month after the elections, one of Khatami’s associates was shot in the face and in the coming months, reformist publications would found themselves closed down.

Khatami looked for solace in foreign affairs. The Clinton Administration had been giving signals that it was ready for rapprochement with Iran throughout its second term. Now these signals and the officials from the Department of State to bring the message to Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Kharazzi came hard and fast, especially after Primakov had been elected and assumed the Russian presidency. Alas, time ran out on Clinton. First it was conveyed to Khatami that President Bill Clinton had hoped the next Administration would be a Gore Administration and that he would continue what Clinton had begun. Then it was the Republicans’ John McCain who emerged victorious in the 2000 US Presidential Elections. Within days of assuming office, McCain said that he would not be continuing Clinton’s overtures to Tehran. Khatami wondered if he had to drift in the Russians and the Chinese’s direction if McCain wanted to be hostile to Iran.

Russia at the very least wanted Iran to drift in its direction. In late October 2000, Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be withdrawing from an agreement it signed with the United States in 1995 to limit conventional weapons sale to Iran. In March 2001, Khatami visited Russia yet amidst cooperation agreements he signed in the field of energy and economics, he refrained from concluding an agreement on anything military.

Disconsolate, Khatami considered not running for re-election as president in 2001. Domestically many urged him to put his name forward. On the international front, he was dissuaded from this course of action by Prime Minister of Italy Massimo D’Alema. Speaking over the phone, D’Alema said that the world should take more notice of Iran not wanting to buy weapons from Russia. D’Alema said that Italy will help Iran pending D’Alema’s own fate at Italy’s Parliamentary Elections. In April 2001, to the cheers of his followers, Khatami declared that he will run for re-election in the Iranian Presidential Election.

In June 2001, Khatami was re-elected with an overwhelming amount of votes. Though his victory was welcomed, Khatami was quickly reminded of his place. During a dispute between the Reformist majority in parliament and conservative judiciary over nominations to the Guardians Council in August 2001, Ali Khamenei delayed Khatami’s inauguration for a few votes until this dispute was resolved. Parliament reluctantly acquiesced and it was only then that Khatami’s inauguration went ahead.

Thus, Khatami began his second term. He took his oath determined that even with constraints at home, he was determined to make the most of what authority he has.

Syria:
After a 1 month interregnum in which the Constitution was amended to allow him to qualify for the presidency and a referendum in which he was the only candidate, Bashar Al-Assad was elected President of Syria in July 2000. In October 2000, Al-Assad invoked the automatic 5 year renewal period in Syria’s 1980 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov readily gave commitment that the treaty was in effect.

Despite bordering each other and sharing a common ally in Russia, Al-Assad declared that thus far that the hostile stance which his father took towards Iraq had not changed.

Iraq:
President of Iraq Saddam Hussein sent Vice President Izzat Ibrahim Al Douri to Primakov’s inauguration in August 2000 as a mark of respect for the new President of Russia.

Saddam watched the 2000 US Presidential Campaigns and said that a choice between Gore and McCain was “no choice at all”. When McCain emerged victorious and assumed office, Saddam braced himself. For their part, the new US Administration made no bones what their intentions were. US National Security Advisor Bill Kristol in a policy speech in March 2001 said that it was the Administration’s intention to implement McCain’s “Rogue State Rollback” campaign promise, specifically in Iraq. Kristol said that the US Administration will arm, equip, and train those forces which are hostile to Saddam’s regime; the eventual goal being the overthrow of Saddam and the establishment of a democratic Iraq. Moscow pushed back saying that what McCain was saying amounted to what the CIA was doing during the Cold War.

By July 2001, the US Administration stepped up its rhetoric with President of the United States John McCain saying that he intended to carry out the Iraq Liberation Act passed by the Clinton Administration. In addition to seeing Iraq as a security threat, McCain also wanted to test Russia’s resolve. Saddam was friends with Primakov and McCain wanted to see what Russia was going to do beyond rhetoric.

Israel:
In September 2000, Opposition Leader and Leader of the Likud Party Ariel Sharon conducted a visit to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Sharon wanted to show Israel’s claim on the Temple Mount but ended up provoking what became known as the Intifada Al-Aqsa. Over the coming weeks there was a marked increase of violence, rioting, and killings inflicted by Israelis and Palestinians on each other through military (in the case of Israel) and other means. In Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Ehud Barak felt the pressure. Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount had been a warning shot not to concede too much in his negotiations with Chairman of PLO Yasser Arafat. At the same time he did not trust Arafat.

Still, Barak played the cards he held in his hands for all it was worth. Though his coalition was breaking down and he was at risk of losing a no-confidence motion, Barak had the authority to call an early election and the Knesset Members did not like the prospects of having to defend their seats 18 months into a 4 year term. This helped keep him in power, at least for now.

October 2000 proved that the United States was diverting its focus away from Israel and Palestine. Bill Clinton found himself in the United States’ first stoush with Primakov’s Russia, trying to drum up support for a Romanian Presidential Candidate who would not be pro-Russian, and handling a terrorist attack in Yemen all at the same time. But the violence began to transition into an uneasy peace as October wore on. In the Palestinian Territories, Arafat called for calm. All things considered, negotiating with Barak was preferable to negotiating with Sharon and he did not want to give Sharon the ammunition to topple Barak.

In January 2001, Barak became Clinton’s final official visitor when he came to Washington. With days until he handed power over, Clinton was apologetic saying that he would have made another effort at bringing Barak and Arafat together were it not for the lack of time and other priorities. Meeting with President-elect John McCain, Barak came out of the meeting with the impression that while McCain was sympathetic to what Sharon was doing at the Temple Mount a few months back, he was not entirely comfortable that Sharon was a Russian speaker; this prejudice also revealing to Barak that McCain’s priorities laid elsewhere.

Still trying to keep his Government afloat, Barak felt that the best way to keep his Government going was to enter into a coalition with Likud. Sharon was interested but wanted Barak to distance himself from the negotiations at Camp David. Barak said that whatever proposal he had given to Arafat at Camp David had been American in origin. At the same time, Barak leveraged McCain’s discomfort with Sharon even as he said he wanted Sharon and the “point of view” that he represented inside the Government. Sharon got the point and thought that he might be more acceptable to Washington as part of Barak’s Government.

In February 2001, Barak and Sharon agreed to form a Coalition with Sharon as Deputy Prime Minister. In addition Barak’s One Nation Coalition and Sharon’s Likud, the Coalition was joined by Yisrael Baaliyah, Shinui, and Centre Party to hold the majority in the Knesset. Over the next few months, the prime minister and deputy prime minister would be attacked by their respective ends of the political spectrums; Barak being attacked from the left and Sharon from the right. The attack from the right being led by former prime minister and Likud member Benjamin Netanyahu called for new general elections to be held.

With violence continuing to occur in Israel and Palestinian territory alike, the new US Administration weighed in on the the conflict between Israel and Palestine in July 2001. McCain said that resumption of talks with the PLO can only occur without Yasser Arafat at the PLO’s helm. This caused Arafat to retort that negotiations with the Israeli government could only resume with Sharon’s resignation from government considering that Sharon “instigated all this”.

Gulf States:
By the time Qatar hosted the OIC Summit in November 2000, Indonesia had established itself as a premier place to invest in. Delegations from the Department of Economics and National Development Planning, the BKPM, and not to mention President Try Sutrisno himself did great work promoting involvement in infrastructure development in Indonesia; presenting to the Sultans and Emir with the prospect of owning a piece of toll road or dam or irrigation network in a faraway land. All Gulf States were targeted for investment to ensure that there would not be dependence on one state.

The Gulf States presented Indonesia with more indication that its economy had recovered. While the number of migrant workers seeking work to be domestic workers in the Gulf State remained constant, the number of migrant workers in other sectors like construction has lessened, owing to more availability of employment back in Indonesia.

Of all the Gulf States, Indonesia had its warmest relations with Bahrain. Bahrain’s moderate and tolerant stance was seen as a perfect complement with Indonesia. It also did not hurt that Bahrain, when a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, voted to recognize that East Timor was part of Indonesia’s territory. In February 2001, Bahrain’s people voted in a referendum for Bahrain to become a constitutional monarchy.

Kuwait also had good relations with Indonesia, being the first Gulf State to invest in Indonesian infrastructure and then turning around to promote Indonesia to other nations in the region. Its Embassy in New Zealand was demonstrated against pro-East Timor demonstrators on 17th July 2001. “How can a nation who spent a few months being annexed could be such an enthusiastic supporter of Indonesia, which has annexed East Timor?”

Saudi Arabia:
The health of King Fahd continued to decline while the influence of his half-brother Crown Prince Abdullah continued to increase. In June 2000, Abdullah set up a family council to discuss internal family matters. In 2001, the two half-brothers’ common concern was the new US Administration’s bellicose attitude towards Iraq. Though the McCain Administration’s bellicosity seemed to be rhetorical, Fahd and Abdullah asked US Secretary of State Richard Williamson whether McCain was being serious. Fahd told Williamson that though it favored expelling Saddam Hussein from Kuwait in 1991, Saudi Arabia could not support McCain if his intention was ultimately to unseat Saddam saying that Saddam’s removal could cause instability in the region. Fahd also cautioned Williamson that the Arab World has not taken kindly to McCain’s coming down heavily on Israel’s side and calling for Arafat to be removed.

One matter where the two royals did not so readily form a united front arrived at a Council of Ministers Meetings throughout 2001 in two matters but originating from the same country. The first was the news that the Indonesian Government had launched a crackdown on Wahabists in Central Java. There was an initial decision to issue an official statement but then Fahd settled for a verbal complaint to be delivered in a meeting with Jakarta’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Malik Fadjar and for the Saudi Ambassador in Jakarta to issue a similar complaint to Indonesia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

The second was news that once again came to Indonesia. The Islamic and Arab Science Institute (LIPIA) in Jakarta, which was under the supervision of the Saudi Embassy in Indonesia, was claiming that they were coming under increased surveillance from Indonesia’s intelligence apparatus. Fahd and Abdullah did not come to an agreement about what step to take but they were spared disagreeing with each other by the requirement to address the US’ stance on Iraq.

Afghanistan:
“The operation in Yemen went ahead successfully and for a while there we were in the United States’ crosshairs. I expected a military response but I haven’t had any. I guess Clinton and McCain really do have their hands full with Russia and China to deal with us. If they still take little notice of us after we hit one of their ships, then perhaps something bigger is indeed warranted. Praise be to Allah that we are making preparations for that something bigger.

Indonesia…well, if Indonesia is not the nation with the largest Islamic population, I would not be too worried about it. But this…these arrests show that the Government of Indonesia have their eyes on us. The brother from Jemaah Islamiyah has revealed his and that Jemaah Islamiyah’s existence by rashly stabbing a Government official in broad daylight last year…this is all his fault. The brothers in Indonesia have done away with the planned bombings of churches at last Christmas Eve and now this…

Let’s not worry. If they take little notice of us here in Afghanistan where the only thing they see is civil war, there is perhaps a blessing in disguise for this. The funds that has been prepared for the brothers in Indonesia, that can now be diverted. Yes…divert them to our brothers learning to fly in the United States. Allah willing, it will be of better use to them.”

Emir of Al Qaeda Osama Bin Laden, March 2001

---
Iran’s path is OTL until Khatami decides not to sign any military deals with Russia.

I know I’m selling the Israel and Palestinian situation short in terms of not conveying what’s happening but I don’t want to get too bogged down or else this TL won’t return to Indonesia again.

Saved Osama Bin Laden for last. And yes ladies and gents, Indonesia’s vigilance and willingness to act against radicalism and terrorism ITTL means terrorists are having second thoughts about striking Indonesia. This in turn causes Bin Laden to decide to divert more resources to the “brothers” practicing their flying skills in the US.

The operation in Yemen is of course the attack on USS Cole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIPIA for information on the Jakarta-based Saudi institution which the Indonesian Government is spying on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_John_McCain#Foreign_policy for John McCain and "rogue state rollback".

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa August 2001:
Africa​

Egypt:
Though geographically located in North Africa, Egypt’s interests lay in the Middle East. President Hosni Mubarak offered himself to mediate between Israel and Palestine at the onset of Al Aqsa Intifada though with the United States’ increasing focus on Russia, this was not possible. After Clinton had passed the baton to John McCain, Mubarak once again offered Egypt to play a role in mediation though it seemed McCain had other priorities.

In November 2000, Egypt completed its People’s Assembly Election. Of the 454 seats, 353 fell to Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP). 72 Independents were also elected of which 17 were members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood members ran as independents because officially their organization was banned. Their election showed that there were cracks in Mubarak’s regime. This made Mubarak’s comment to Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno at the D-8 Summit that he drew strength from Try’s arrests of Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah operatives in Indonesia all the more genuine.

Tunisia and Morocco:
An unlikely region where Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno had drawn attention in recent times has been North Africa. No less than King Mohammed VI in Morocco and President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali have had their interest piqued by Try. Analysts within Indonesia’s Department of Foreign Affairs say that they see a commonality with Try because they inherited their regimes rather than be the ones to construct it and they see themselves as more liberal or reformist than their predecessors but also trying their best to make sure that their regimes will survive. In that sense, they see President Try and his actions as something with which they can “compare notes”. The two met Try at the OIC Summit in Qatar in November 2000 but they did not get a long face time with Try.

Morocco’s King Mohammed inherited his father’s throne in 1999, both the funeral and the coronation being attended on Indonesia’s behalf by Chairman of DPA Rudini. Rudini remembered Mohammed asking about “President Try, who was dealing well with the Asian Financial Crisis”. A year on after he had ascended to the throne, Mohammed said in an interview that he is balancing between being an “absolutist and parliamentary” and that he was balancing “Tradition and modernization”. Mohammed said that this was not going after contradictory goals because “Certain other leaders” are following this path though he did not mention who he modeled his style after.

Ben Ali got most of his information about Try after the OIC Summit in November 2000 from his ambassador to Jakarta who he summoned back specifically to satisfy his curiosity. Ben Ali fancied himself a modernizer though his critics suggested that only his cronies benefitted from his governance of the nation. First Lady Leila Ben Ali, often targeted by Ben Ali’s critics, did not like what she heard about Try.

“This Try fellow, he was elevated to the vice presidency by his predecessor was he not?” she asked “Why has he turned around to target his predecessor’s children. Isn’t that a bit disloyal?”

Algeria:
In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was fighting a civil war against various Islamist groups in the country. By the end of 2000, Bouteflika’s forces had compelled the surrender of the largest of these groups and working on the surrender of the other groups. In February 2001, after the D-8 Summit, Indonesia’s State Minister of National Security Soerjadi visited Algeria to see how Bouteflika were taking on the various groups of Islamists.

Libya:
One of the reasons why Indonesia decided to intervene decisively in the Sipadan Hostage Situation in September 2000 was that Leader Muammar Gaddafi was seeking to insert himself into the situation; negotiating for the release of the Western hostages. Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno did not want to allow this happen, remembering that Muammar Gaddafi had trained the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in the 80s. For his part, Gaddafi was not happy that Try “had the gall” to deprive him of glory and began to make contact with his Acehnese compatriots, urging them to make their voices heard.

Senegal:
Still under IMF tutelage, President Abdou Diouf accepted the inclusion of privatizing of Senegal’s state-owned electricity company Senelec as a condition to continue receiving aid. This privatization was carried out in 1999. The privatization was not well carried out. By the time this was realized, however, Diouf had lost in the 2000 Presidential Elections and had been succeeded by Abdoulaye Wade. By September 2000, Wade had renationalized Senelec. At the end of 2000, IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer was pressuring Wade to re-privatize Senelec. Having begun to improve Senelec’s services, Wade did not want to be rushed into trying to privatize again.

Being pro-US, Wade thought he could get Secretary of Treasury Lawrence Summers to get Fischer to ease the pressure. To Wade’s horror, both Summers and his successor Phil Gramm backed the IMF. In early March 2001, Wade found himself being agreeing to the IMF’s terms but feeling disillusioned that he had to do so under pressure.

Sierra Leone:
In October 1999, the United Nations (UN) approved the formation of the United Nations Mission In Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) to enforce the peace agreement signed by the Sierra Leone Government and the RUF to end the civil war there. The UNAMSIL had a broad mandate, including to use force, to compel the disarmament of both the Sierra Leone Armed Forces and the rebel Revolutionary United Front (RUF). In early May 2000 however, a few RUF personnel were detained by the UNAMSIL. When the UNAMSIL refused to hand back their personnel, the RUF took UNAMSIL personnel hostage and began advancing into areas controlled by the Sierra Leone Government. By early May, they came close to Freetown prompting UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to call for the United Kingdom to intervene.

At this critical moment, Prime Minister of United Kingdom Tony Blair dithered. Though he wanted to intervene in Sierra Leone, the place where he truly wanted to intervene was Zimbabwe. Seeing the pressure South Africa was putting on Zimbabwe, Blair requested President of South Africa Thabo Mbeki’s assistance for a joint military intervention to unseat Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. It was only after Mbeki decisively rejected the idea of unseating Mugabe that Blair turned his attention back to Sierra Leone.

By the time Blair authorized Operation Palliser and UK Military Personnel were sent on the ground in late May 2000, President of Nigeria Olesegun Obasanjo had already sent troops. The UK’s soldiers did their bit to restore calm and order in the ground but the delay caused by Blair being tempted to unseat Mugabe meant they were seen as Johnny-come-latelies though President of Sierra Leone Ahmad Tejan Kabbah was only too happy for the intervention.

Nigeria:
The appointment of Anthony Salim as Indonesia’s new minister of trade in January 2001 and boosting the exports of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) to developing countries to increase export earnings, increased the importance of Nigeria to Indonesia. Anthony, formerly the CEO of Salim Group (producers of Indomie instant noodles), had adopted a strategy for his company that Nigeria was to be Indomie’s gateway to West African markets. Now as minister, he was going to mobilize Indonesia’s big FMCG brands to not only gain access to Nigeria’s markets but to also use Nigeria as a launching pad to countries in West Africa such as Togo, Benin, and Ghana in Nigeria’s west, Niger to Nigeria’s north, and Cameroon to Nigeria’s east.

But Nigeria was not only on Indonesia’s radar for economic purposes. One of the hot button issues in Nigeria was the matter of Sharia Law. Under existing regulations, Sharia Law could be allowed in civil cases. In September 1999, mere months after President Olesegun Obasanjo took office, Zamfara State declared that it would adopt Sharia Law for criminal cases. A further 7 states declared that it would adopt Sharia Law in 2000 and several more states declared that it was going to follow suit in 2001.

Nigeria was a nation where Islam and Christianity are deadlocked; nearly equal percentages of the citizenry adhering to these two faiths. Obasanjo was a Christian. Fearful of taking a decisive step, his solution was to state that various state adopting Sharia Law was just a fad and that it would all go away. For this, he was mocked by Muslim hardliners and drew the resentment of Christians. Both Houses of Nigeria’s Legislature urged Obasanjo to take up the matter with the Supreme Court but Obasanjo demurred. When Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin visited Nigeria in June 2000, Obasanjo expressed his amazement that a Muslim majority nation had a Catholic vice president.

President Try received his updates on Nigeria from Indonesia’s Department of Foreign Affairs. bureaucrats in the department noted that when it comes to information on Africa, the Nigerian section was always underlined, marked and on one occasion with the writing “Can’t let this happen in Indonesia” scrawled on it.

Gabon, Zambia, and Kenya:
Gabon was a Non-Permanent Member of the UN Security Council in 1999 that had voted to acknowledge Indonesia’s claim over East Timor, leading to it being put on Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin’s itinerary in June 2000. President Omar Bongo was very friendly and drew parallels between Indonesia’s less than friendly relationship with the IMF with Gabon’s own. Indonesia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita wanted to issue a statement emphasizing this but got into an argument with Sumarlin. The latter pointing out that the IMF’s problems with Bongo was over the Gabonese Government’s reliance on off-budget funds and having a budget deficit. “Not being in line with the IMF does not mean not being economically irresponsible”, argued Sumarlin. The visit ended with a more moderate statement promising exchanges of delegations to learn about each other’s countries.

Also with an axe to grind towards the IMF was Zambia. President Frederick Chiluba had come to power in 1991 and had implemented the IMF’s structural adjustments policies to the letter. By late 1999, he was publicly attacking the IMF saying that the consequence had been stagnant economic growth and increased unemployment. Chiluba called that the “leniency extended to nations that are now faring well economically” be extended to other countries. New IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer in 2000 tersely blamed Zambia’s problems on there being corruption and the lack of institutional reforms.

More cynically, many within Zambia thought that Chiluba was covering up for the fact that his administration was a failure. By early 2001, the effective end of Mugabe’s rule in Zimbabwe, events in Turkey, the stark contrast with the Indonesian economy (which had also asked for IMF assistance but had managed to negotiate itself out of implementing all of the IMF reforms) and popular perception within the country for change proved too much for Chiluba. A plan by certain factions within the ruling MMD Party to move a constitutional amendment to allow Chiluba to run for a third term at the Presidential Elections scheduled in December 2001.

After it had the IMF suspend its aid in 1997 and the terrorist attack on the US Embassy in 1998, Kenya needed all the help it can get. In early 2000, it was President of Kenya Daniel Arap Moi’s misfortune however that the then-IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus visited Kenya after being in Jakarta, Indonesia where the Government of that country unceremoniously asked to get out of the IMF’s program. Camdessus played hardball and would not concede anything even after Arap Moi had formed an anti-corruption team saying that Kenya “had not done enough”. A shouting match ensued and negotiations were suspended once again. In October 2000, Arap Moi became one of few heads of states who attended the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and who made sure he was snapped shaking hands with President Jiang Zemin.

Democratic Republic of Congo:
Congo was in the midst of the Second Congo War. After emerging victorious in the First Congo War and ousting Mobutu Sese Seko in May 1997, President Laurent-Desire Kabila requested the withdrawal of all Rwandan and Ugandan from Congo; Rwanda and Uganda being Kabila’s backers as he fought the First Congo War. Rwanda and Uganda was less than pleased at this development. When a rebellion broke out in Eastern Congo in August 1998, Rwanda and Uganda were quick to back it. Kabila struggled but his capital was saved when Zimbabwe and Angola, and later Namibia, intervened. A ceasefire was signed in July 1999 though its implementation was hindered by Kabila.

A major development occurred in September 2000 when Zimbabwe announced that it will be withdrawing its troops effective January 2001. The ZANU-PF regime there had not fallen but President Robert Mugabe’s reign had come to an effective end. In the intervening months, Kabila focused his troops’ attack on UNITA operations within his regime. It was an attempt to keep Angola onside; UNITA being the rebel forces with which the Angolan government was fighting its civil war with. By November 2000, President of Angola Eduardo Dos Santos gave assurance to Kabila that Congo would not be abandoned. Namibia’s President Sam Nujoma gave similar assurances.

Kabila also saw what was going on in world politics. In October 2000, Kabila sent his son Joseph Kabila first to Beijing, China to attend the Forum On China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and then to Moscow. On both visits, the younger Kabila asked for military aid to fight the war. The Russians and Chinese approved of this with the Russians increasing the sales of weaponry to Angola, the Chinese providing the financing, and Angola providing the distribution channel. By August 2001, the Second Congo War continued to rage on, approaching its third year.

Uganda and Rwanda:
For its participation in the Second Congo War, Uganda had all military aid suspended by the United States, a suspension which continued even as power passed from Clinton to McCain. The new Administration in Washington would get its first real look at Uganda when Vice President of the United States George W. Bush came to visit in May 2001. Bush met with President Yoweru Museveni and was impressed with the latter’s efforts to fight HIV/AIDS. But Museveni, recently re-elected, appealed to Bush to ask McCain to lift the military aid on account of Angola and Congo being supported by Russia and China. Bush was sympathetic enough to forward the request to McCain. President McCain refused to budge, saying that the best way to improve the situation was to counter Russia and China’s influence.

In spite of its involvement alongside Uganda, the upper echelons of Rwanda’s leadership knew that its priorities ought to be economic development. In November 1999, Vice President/Minister of Defense Paul Kagame visited Indonesia. Though President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno was away at the time, Kagame got to meet with Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin. Kagame said that he was going to Southeast Asia to copy Singapore’s development experience in Rwanda but said he would be remiss if he did not visit the nation was going to be first to get out of the Asian Financial Crisis. Sumarlin returned the visit in June 2000 when he was visiting African countries. By that time, Kagame had assumed the presidency. Amidst talks of economic cooperation, Kagame offered Rwanda as a market for Pindad assault rifles though Sumarlin demurred.

Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome and Principe:
Mozambique continued to show itself as the Timor Leste’s strongest supporter in Asia. President Joaquim Chissano and Prime Minister Pascoal Locumbi marked the 25th Anniversary of East Timor’s Invasion in December 2000 by attending the inauguration of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Embassy in Maputo. The event was hosted by Vice Chairman of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Mari Alkatiri. Mozambique also marked the 25th Anniversary of the Formation of the Province of East Timor in July 2001 with a ceremony at the aforementioned embassy. The special guest, making the trip from South Africa, was none other than Xanana Gusmao.

Alkatiri’s lobbying of Lusophonic Africa since 1999 had ensured that these former Portuguese colonies were quick to condemn the Singapore Settlement and the accompanying UN Resolution. Since that time however, a few have begun to waver. Sao Tome and Principe, being of close proximity to Portugal, having their economies linked to Portugal, and seeing Portugal’s changing stance towards Indonesia, began to change their mind. That the country’s external debt was 5 times the amount of the country’s GDP caused the Government to begin shifting its stance. It sent representatives to the inauguration of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Embassy in Mozambique but did not sent representatives to mark the 25th Anniversary of East Timor’s incorporation into Indonesia. Cape Verde, much like Sao Tome and Principe, was an island nation with close links to Portugal, stayed the course.

Guinea Bissau issued a statement but otherwise stayed away from the events held in December 2000 and July 2001, being preoccupied with an unstable peace.

Angola supported Mozambique and Timor Leste, the largest of the Lusophonic African nations and the first, almost immediately, to reject the UN Resolution accepting East Timor as part of Indonesia. This stance of Angola was not popular, particularly in ABRI Headquarters and the ABRI Intelligence Agency.

Though Angola made good on its continued support, there were other things on its agenda; the continued civil war against UNITA, its now more prominent role in the Second Congo War, and the IMF suspending its relations with Angola in early 2001. The latter left Angola and smarting and drove it into the arm of the Russians and the Chinese. Though its economy was neglected as a result of its various military commitments, Angola fancied itself to be a regional power in Africa.

Botswana, Ghana, and Tanzania:
The experiences of Gabon, Zambia, and Kenya with the IMF would always be contrasted to that of Botswana, Ghana, and Tanzania who were seen as the IMF’s “golden boys” in Africa. President of Botswana Festus Mugae’s background was actually as an economist at the IMF. But even without Mugae’s IMF background, Botswana was already looked upon favorably in the West for being a stable demoracy in Africa.

Ghana was another one looked favorably upon by the IMF, being hailed as a “star pupil” for its implementation of IMF reforms even though implementing IMF reforms had caused a stagnant economy. This economic situation provided the backdrop to the 2000 Presidential Elections in which John Kufuor of the National Patriotic Party (NPP) overcame Vice President John Atta Mills of the National Convention Party. The momentous occasion however, would come in January 2001 when President JJ Rawlings, who wad governed first as the leader of a junta and then as a popularly elected president for two terms, handed over power peacefully to Kufuor.

Kufuor quickly. On the political side, Kufuor had further guaranteed freedom of the press by abolishing libel laws in Ghana and on the economic side, he further slashed fuel subsidies. No less than President of United States John McCain hailed the changes being made, saying that Ghana was a “beacon” for new democracies and that Kufuor was a “model” to be followed for authoritarian regimes to follow as it transitions into democracies.

Going from strength to strength and another example IMF liked to use to say that their reforms could facilitate growth was Tanzania. In October 2000, President Benjamin Nkapa was elected on strong economic performance which saw him cut inflation and increase investment in the country. All this, IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer said is due to Nkapa’s commitment to implementing structural adjustments in the economy.

Namibia:
In January 2001, after Zimbabwe began its troop withdrawal, there were internal rumblings in the Namibian Government about whether Namibia should do the same. Holding a cabinet meeting, President Sam Nujoma quickly knew what was up. Mandela had handed the reins in South Africa, Mugabe had lost it (with as much face saved) in Zimbabwe, and now Nujoma realized that he was next as far as when founding fathers in Southern Africa going off into the sunset were concerned.

Then- Indonesian Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti led a trade delegation to Namibia in July 2000 as part of Indonesia’s diplomacy to increase trade with the non-permanent members of the UN Security Council in 1999 who had voted to acknowledge the Singapore Settlement.

South Africa:
Following in the footsteps in Nelson Mandela was not easy. But it was why President Thabo Mbeki took steps to build his own legacy by seeking to make South Africa a flourishing economy and a regional power. On occasions, Mbeki can go too far in going his own road by, for example, denying the existence of AIDS in July 2000.

Mbeki’s orientation was towards the international stage. In September 2000, the African Renaissance and International Cooperation Act was passed, putting closer international cooperation, starting with African countries, into legislation. Mbeki also seemed to be reenergized in his role as Chairman of the NAM with the assumption of the United States and Russian presidencies by John McCain and Yevgeny Primakov respectively. He lobbied hard for Bangladesh to commit to hosting the NAM Summit in 2001 despite it being a tense election year and managed to get the latter nation’s commitment. Speaking afterwards in the press conference, Mbeki said that the NAM has now become more relevant than ever.

On one issue Mbeki deferred to Mandela: Zimbabwe. Mbeki kept abreast of what was happening in Zimbabwe in early to mid-2000 and had intended to take a softer line towards President of Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe. Information from Mandela’s inner circle revealed that he had felt guilty for not standing up “Strongly enough” on the issue of East Timor in the final days of his presidency and had become determined that he would not compromise on Zimbabwe. Mbeki at last decided that on this issue, he was going to defer to Mandela’s wishes.

Zimbabwe:
The power of President Robert Mugabe faded away in 2000. In February 2000, a referendum was held in Zimbabwe to approve or reject a constitutional amendment which would allow the government to seize farms owned by white farmers without giving them compensation and hand them to black farm owners. In what was seen as a rebuff to Mugabe, the proposed constitutional amendment was rejected with Leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai leading the charge. Despite the referendum results, however, the nation began to report increasing cases of land invasions as gangs began to forcibly seize white-owned farms though Mugabe would dub these land invasions as something which happened “spontaneously”.

International condemnation was directed at Mugabe. Leading the charge on the continent was South Africa’s Mbeki who said in March 2000 that what Mugabe was doing was endangering Zimbabwe’s economy and the economies of the nations surrounding it, including South Africa. Mandela himself showed where he stood, saying that it was time for Mugabe “to go”. Mandela’s strong condemnation of Mugabe helped to build momentum against Mugabe both in Zimbawe and abroad with the emphasis being put on ensuring that Zimbabwe’s House of Assembly Elections were free and fair as a prelude to political change. Under international pressure, Mugabe found that any effort at intimidation by his ZANU-PF party was quickly reported to international observers in the country. The populace itself seemed more emboldened at standing up to Mugabe

There was one final piece of defiance with the outgoing Zimbabwean Parliament passing a law to allow the Government to seize land from white farmers in April 2000. But in June 2000, at the House of Assembly Elections, a mortal blow was landed on Mugabe’s regime. Of the 120 elected seats, Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC got 62 seats while Mugabe’s ZANU-PF got 58 seats. Mugabe only retained control of the House of Assembly by the fact that the country’s constitution allowed him to appoint the other 30 unelected seats.

In the aftermath of the election there was a lot noise coming Mugabe’s way. Tsvangirai called on Mugabe to “heed” the people’s aspirations while Prime Minister of United Kingdom Tony Blair took a harder line saying that the elections should be considered a “vote of no confidence” in Mugabe. Mbeki and Mandela took a more subdued line, concerned that despite losing in a referendum and a legislative election, Mugabe still controlled the Armed Forces, the security apparatus, and was thought to also hold control over the armed gangs.

In the end, it seemed that the Mugabe regime’s own inner workings that did Mugabe in. In July 2000, after the new House of Assembly had been sworn in, Mugabe named Minister of Justice, Legal, and Parliamentary Affairs Emmerson Mnangagwa as prime minister, an office that for the last 13 years had been combined with that of the presidency. In the coming months it became clear that Mnangagwa was becoming more prominent while Mugabe was on the wane. The forcible seizure of white farm land was suspended if not ceased while Zimbabwe committed itself to begin withdrawing troops committed to the Second Congo War in January 2001.

Those in the know said that Zanu-PF had pressured Mugabe to make an “honorable exit” by slowly transferring power to Mnangagwa so that the latter could establish himself ahead of the Presidential Elections in 2002 where he would be expected to face Tsvangirai. Apparently two defeats at the polls were enough for Mugabe to be seen as having lost his right to rule, even within the ranks of his supporters.

---
That's Africa down. The further one gets the smaller the butterfly wings are felt but in Africa, I wanted to highlight what Try looked like to someone some distance away (Ie. Morocco and Tunisia).

One thing that's going come into play ITTL is how the IMF perceives itself and how it is perceived. Indonesia being an economic disaster being butterflied away also means IMF's intervention being a disaster being butterflied away. The IMF came out of its experience with Indonesia thinking that it's not strict enough. Other nations (ie. Zambia) think that it's being screwed over because it follows IMF policies to the letter and not doing so good. Tanzania, Ghana, and Botswana is as OTL here to provide examples of African nations which have done well with the IMF.

What happens in Nigeria regarding states declaring itself for the Sharia Law is as in OTL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo#Confronting_ethnic_and_religious_tensions

Indonesia's going to really try to go after markets in the developing world for its FMCG products ITTL.

The big butterfly wing in Africa from Indonesia comes in Zimbabwe here and this is the route the butterflies take (though you're welcome to look through the TL):
-While the world was distracted with the Kosovo War, Indonesia pushed through the Singapore Settlement in which the UN and Portugal acknowledges East Timor to be part of Indonesia.
-Nelson Mandela tried to prevent this but failed, though he succeeded in securing the release of Xanana Gusmao.
-The divergence from OTL is that Mandela's successor as President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, applied pressure on Zimbabwe's Mugabe. In OTL this did not occur.
-Mugabe remains as de jure president but de facto it's Mnangagwa that's in charge.
-Mnangagwa withdraws Zimbabwe from the Second Congo War and that's why the Second Congo War is in this.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa August 2001:
Europe and the Americas​

United Kingdom:
Prime Minister Tony Blair could not get anything right it seemed. He was booed at a women’s conference in June 2000; a sign that he was not as popular as he seemed. Then he came across as someone who was selective about practicing his principles, intervening in Sierra Leone but only after South Africa rebuffed his request for intervention in Zimbabwe instead of intervening in Sierra Leone from the outset. The fuel shortage in September 2000, the foot and mouth disease of early 2001, Blair was beaten from pillar to post.

Across the bench was the Conservatives’ William Hague, Leader of the Opposition whose task it was to pick up the pieces for his party after its spectacular defeat to Blair in 1997. Able to take Blair on in a parliamentary debate but awkward when presenting an appealing image to the public, Hague fatefully chose not to appeal to the right; reportedly choosing in March 2001 to attack bogus asylum seekers but not claiming that a Labor victory at the next election would lead to the UK becoming a “foreign land”.

The UK Election was held in June 2001. Blair’s popularity had dipped enough to effect the Labour Party, its seats dropping from 418 to 391. Hague managed to unite the Conservatives behind him and increased their seats from 165 to 188. Attacking Labour from its left, Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats increased their seats from 46 to 50.

Though he lost, Hague’s post-election aftermath was happier; with a consensus within the Conservatives that Hague should be retained as leader. Blair’s post-election was less so with elements within the party attributing Labor’s victory to the economy and to the work of Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. Brown, who had leadership ambitions, did little to stop his supporters from making such claims. Meeting with Blair privately after the election, Brown reminded Blair of the latter’s promise to step aside after two terms. Being cornered, Blair agreed to step down from the prime ministership in 2003 saying that he wished to surpass Attlee as Labour’s longest-serving prime minister.

On the foreign policy front, despite different persuasions, Blair was keen to work together with President John McCain. Becoming the first world leader to visit the United States in February 2001, Blair and McCain found that they agreed on countering the influence of Russia and China. Later in the year, Blair supported McCain’s “rogue state rollback” saying that for Saddam Hussein to remain President of Iraq was abhorrent for both the Iraqi people and the international community.

Portugal:
They held cultural events, said that life was great where they’re at and presented their province as a good economic prospect, and appeared on various television interviews. As far diplomatic offensives went, Governor of East Timor Clementino Dos Reis Amaral’s Delegation in early April 2001 had to be hailed a success. At its conclusion Prime Minister Antonio de Sousa Franco chaired multiple cabinet meetings in which the topic was whether or not Portugal should recognize East Timor as an Indonesian province and resume diplomatic relations with Indonesia. After a tough debate, it was agreed that Portugal will recognize East Timor as an Indonesian province though diplomatic relations with Indonesia was a matter for another time.

Franco and Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Manuel Barrosso visited Indonesia to mark the 25th Anniversary of the Formation of the Province of East Timor in July 2001. Their visit and Portugal’s acknowledgement of East Timor as an Indonesian province was seen as the final curtain of the Portugese Empire.

Spain:
Portugal’s shift on East Timor was in no small part to Spain’s lobbying whose retail giant Zara was able to invest in Indonesia and gain access to that market. Initially seeing the advantages of having good economic relations with Indonesia, Spain came to realize the importance of its relations with Indonesia for security reasons.

When Try Sutrisno was out of the country in February 2001, Deputy Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy came to visit Indonesia. In addition to discussing economic cooperation, Rajoy received a special briefing from Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. Among those arrested during Operation Sledgehammer conducted in Indonesia in January 2001 was one Parlindungan Siregar. Parlindungan had been living in Spain recruiting personnel from within the country to be channeled around the world for jihadist purposes with Al Qaeda. Parlindungan’s Al Qaeda links were quickly confirmed and Rajoy signed an MoU with Vice President JB Sumarlin to keep each other’s nations updated, a step nearly on the level of but not actual intelligence sharing.

In early August 2001, Ari Sudewo visited Spain and got an audience with Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar and Rajoy, the latter now minister of the interior in addition to deputy prime minister with authority over counter-terrorism. Ari and Rajoy agreed that Al Qaeda was planning an imminent attack on the United States. Aznar said that unfortunately the United States’ attention was elsewhere.

Scandinavia:
“Though we have focused our efforts in attracting foreign investment from Western Europe, we have received interest from the Scandinavian nations and have adjusted accordingly to accommodate them. By the end of the 2000/2001 Fiscal Year (March 2001), we can point to the following investments as our main successes in Scandinavia:

*Finland’s Nokia is seeking to build a factory in Medan to take advantage of the large domestic market for mobile phones and the habit of Indonesians to have multiple mobile phones as well as to be in a strategically placed location to send their products to Southeast Asia. They will ground break before the year is out.

*Denmark’s Lego has been conducting surveys to Ujung Pandang where they would like to build a factory; once again the large domestic market for childrens’ toys. They will ground break early next year.

*After ceasing operations in Malaysia before their first outlet is finished, Sweden’s IKEA has now begun construction of their first store in Indonesia, which will be in Jakarta, they will open middle of next year”.

-BKPM Annual Report 2000

Netherlands:
The country that passed legislation legalizing prostitution, euthanasia, and homosexual marriage over the end of 2000 and early 2001 was going through something of a second honeymoon with its former colonial possession. Indonesia’s strong economy 2000 drew the interest of both Indonesians living overseas and the Dutch people. Tourists from the Netherlands came flocking to Indonesia during Summer 2000, the 2000 end of year holidays, and once again in Summer 2001 so much so that Dutch tourists constituted the largest contingent of tourists from Europe. Indonesia’s Department of Tourism played a strong game in the Netherlands, up to and including targeting senior citizens to visit former colonial sites in Indonesia.

This second honeymoon was not without controversy for Netherlands had its share of human rights activists who frowned at this relationship. When the Indonesian Government cracked down on alleged extremists in January 2001, Human Rights Watch’s offices in the Netherlands issued a statement saying that Indonesia’s government was “still authoritarian”.

France:
President Jacques Chirac became the first prominent world leader to meet President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov at the UN Millenium Summit in September 2000. Chirac sympathized with Primakov’s argument for multipolarism but felt that he wanted France to play a constructive role as one of the world’s “poles” rather than position itself as a challenger to the United States the way Russia was doing. Their conversation was a dead-end, at least for now.

Chirac was not without his differences with the United States and had criticized President of United States Bill Clinton as acting in increasingly “unilateral” fashion. But Clinton seemed to be the good ol’ days when compared to his successor, John McCain. Chirac was surprised when McCain announced as the latter’s first act as president in January 2001 to announce withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and publicly said that this was mistake. When McCain began to bandy about the idea that he would like to put his policy of “rogue state rollback” in practice, starting with Iraq, Chirac called this an even bigger mistake.

Nevertheless, McCain treated Chirac in a friendly fashion and the two looked amiable in front of the cameras. The Administration understood that its relations with France should be kept as well as possible, considering Chirac’s personal relations with Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder.

Germany:
Across France’s eastern border, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was buoyed. At the end of 2000, Germany recorded its strongest economic growth figures since 1992. For Schroeder, however, strong economic performance was one thing but what he was really after was Germany to become more prominent on the world stage. For him, the real victory was being able to secure the election of Germany’s Caio Koch-Weser as Head of the World Bank. Schroeder’s desire for Germany to be more assertive and pursue its national interests on the world stage made him an easy prey for Primakov. Primakov’s arguments for multipolarism and talks of how Germany deserved a seat on the UN Security Council held great appeal for Schroeder.

Much as Chirac, Schroeder criticized McCain’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the way that he was openly talking about unseating Saddam Hussein in Iraq. However when Russia announced that it was withdrawing from START II in July 2001 at the G8 Summit, Schroeder turned around and criticized Primakov and Russia, a sign that he would not so easily drift to Russia’s cause.

Italy:
It took a lot: defeat at the regional elections, the specter of a New Cold War with Primakov and (possibly) McCain at the helm in the US and Russia, and Forza Italia’s Silvio Berlusconi doing consistently well in the polls. But by September 2000, Prime Minister Massimo D’Alema had managed to unite his coalition of center-left parties behind him and support him for re-election. The only bargain he struck was to appoint the popular and charismatic Mayor of Rome Francesco Rutelli as his deputy prime minister. The election was held in May 2001. Despite the money Berlusconi threw at his campaign, D’Alema and his Olive Tree Coalition ran an organized campaign. D’Alema’s coalition gained 309 seats while Berlusconi’s Freedom House coalition gained 294 seats. At a distant third, the Communist Reformation Party threw its 27 seats behind D’Alema. It was a reduced majority but D’Alema held on.

One of D’Alema’s first tasks in his new term was to host the G8 Summit in July 2001. It proved to be a historical summit, though not for the demonstrations that occurred outside of it. It was when the G8 Summit was held that the US’ withdrawal from the ABM Treaty took effect, that President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov announced that Russia was withdrawing from START II, and that Germany and France expressed their criticism of both sides. As an international observer puts it, it was the summit when the American, Russian, and European “poles” of the multipolar world made themselves heard.

Italy remained Iran’s closest friend in Europe. In August 2001, one of the guests President of Iran Muhammad Khatami welcomed to his inauguration was Minister of Foreign Affairs Lamberto Dini. Dini told Khatami that D’Alema brought up the matter of Iran to McCain. Dini conveyed that D’Alema said that Iran not purchasing weapons from Russia has got to count for something but that McCain would not budge. Khatami asked what needed to be done. Dini said that Italy will continue to vouch for Iran but given McCain’s “unilateral tendencies”, it would be best if Iran looked for safety in numbers.

Austria:
The freeze on bilateral relations placed by EU nations on Austria lasted for more than half a year. It was the Clinton Administration, who had joined the EU in freezing bilateral nations, who first unfroze it in September 2000 out of fear of Russia increasing its influence there. The EU followed suit in October 2000.

The Indonesian and Austrian governments had been working towards an asset recovery treaty. In recent months, however, representatives of the Indonesian government were asking for this treaty to be completed as soon as possible. When the technical limitations were pointed out, the Indonesians settled for focusing and then completing the provisions for freezing of Indonesian bank accounts in Austria.. In August 2001, Indonesian Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro made the trip to Austria to sign the agreement as well as request for a certain bank account to be frozen.

Turkey:
Of the financial crises that struck emerging nations and which required IMF assistance in the late 20th-early 21st century, it was the crisis in Turkey which can be said to have claimed a political scalp.

An economic crisis in late 2000 turned political in February 2001 when the contents of an argument between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit over steps that needed to be taken to solve Turkey’s crisis went public. The markets immediately lost confidence. The Government, which had hitherto maintained a pegged exchange rate, allowed the lira to float. Over the next days and weeks, the lira lost most of its value. Unemployment shot up and there was increasing social unrest in the country.

It was at this juncture that the IMF decided to refuse to suspend further assistance, the reason being that the agreement it had signed with the Turkish Government had mandated the Government to maintain a pegged exchange rate in a bid to control inflation. Now inflation and everything else was out of control, exacerbated further by the IMF. By the second week of March 2001, crowds were demonstrating, calling for Ecevit’s resignation. The situation was dire that Ecevit made an appeal to Washington DC to help them deal with the IMF but Secretary of Treasury Phil Gramm would not be moved. Gramm told Ecevit to abide by the IMF’s conditions.

Stressed and under immense pressure, Ecevit’s health began to betray him; with the coalition government which he led since 1999 following close behind him. It was mid-March when Ecevit’s coalition partners from the Motherland Party (ANAP) and the National Movement Party (MHP) presented him with an ultimatum: resign or the two parties would withdraw from the coalition and force new elections. Ecevit consulted with the Democratic Left Party (DSP) and found confirmation that the coalition partners and an increasing amount of DSP members increasingly felt it would be better if Deputy Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan be given the opportunity to lead Turkey outside of the crisis. For the DSP members, there was no telling how the DSP would do in an election.

Ozkan was not without his aspirations but feigned reluctance at the idea of taking over from Ecevit. He used the coalition’s urging of him to take over from Ecevit to negotiate two conditions: that the coalition has to hold until the next general election which was due in 2004 and that the coalition gives him unconditional support as he guides Turkey to economic recovery. Having received guarantees for these two conditions, Ozkan too submitted his request for Ecevit’s resignation. Abandoned, Ecevit resigned and Ozkan became the new Prime Minister of Turkey.

Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan’s first act was to name Turkish World Bank economist Kemal Darwis as State Minister of Economic Affairs. Darwis’ appointment helped the Turkish Government regain its IMF assistance with the condition that any “consideration of steps or decisions not previously discussed, must be consulted with the IMF”. Ozkan meanwhile called for support from the general populace for the hard slog ahead.

Russia:
Yevgeny Primakov completed his political journey to the top when he took his oath to become the new President of Russia in August 2000. His inauguration was watched on a world nervous on whether or not he would bring about a new Cold War. In his inaugural address, Primakov called for a multipolar world in which the “dominant power in the world” is balanced by nations “combining strategically” to provide an alternative source of influence in the world. For domestic consumption, Primakov also spoke for Russia taking its place as a great power once again.

One of Primakov’s first act as president was to resign the prime ministership he had held since August 1998. As expected, he named Vladimir Putin as the new Prime Minister of Russia. Though there was no formal division of labor, Putin made domestic policy his primary focus. In his first few months in office, Putin enacted tax cuts to stimulate activity in the Russian economy. Though Primakov was not ignorant of what was happening domestically, Putin’s focus there gave him leeway to focus more on foreign policy.

By the time of his inauguration as president, Primakov had become something of a notorious figure on the world stage. Those in the West saw Primakov as a spoiler, eager to play the role of “thorn in the American flesh”. Those who were not of the West, even if they were not exactly pro-Russian, saw Primakov as someone with a knack of calling out the United States and the West on the latter’s “hypocrisy and double standards”.

A case in point was Yugoslavia. In July 2000, whilst still Prime Minister of Russia but already president-elect, Primakov advised President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic against holding early elections. Milosevic, after the rules for presidential elections had been changed to accommodate direct elections, had considered calling an election before the end of 2000. Primakov brought forward intelligence suggesting that the State Department and USAID was channeling assistance, financial and otherwise, through American NGOs to help prepare opposition figures in Yugoslavia to run a successful campaign against Milosevic. “Until this assistance stop”, Primakov argued “It cannot be said that President Milosevic is going into a fair fight.”

Primakov had a clear idea of what he wanted to do; namely establish a strategic triangle comprising of Russia, China, and India to balance the power of the United States. He began by meeting with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the UN Millenium Summit in September 2000. Vajpayee said that he could not commit arguing that he could not see China and India being on the same side. China, on the other hand, was a different proposition. China saw the common cause it could make with Russia to balance the United States. By January 2001, with only two days left until President of United States Bill Clinton was due to leave office, Primakov and President of China Jiang Zemin concluded the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.

Once inaugurated, President of United States John McCain retaliated by giving 6 months notice that the United States would be withdrawing from the Anti Ballistic Missiles Treaty. This meant that the United States would have no restrictions in constructing its missile defense system. Primakov expected no less from McCain. In the months afterwards, Primakov expected more blows to come Russia’s way from the world’s remaining superpower but McCain was pre-occupied with the United States economy entering into a recession.

By mid-2001, McCain was at it again saying that would like to implement his “rogue state rollback” program against Iraq. What was explicit was that McCain would like to see President of Iraq Saddam Hussein unseated from his position. What was implicit was that he wanted to test Primakov’s resolve given his close relationship with Saddam. Primakov remained calm, asking whether the United States intended to conduct military action without the UN Security Council’s authorization the way that it did in Kosovo.

It was July 2001 at the G8 Summit in Genoa, Italy when Primakov first met with McCain. Though the two were pleasant with one another, Primakov found McCain emblematic of the “American worldview that its ideals are correct and should be imposed on the rest of the world”. The G8 Summit coincided with the United States’ withdrawal from the ABM Treaty taking effect but Primakov would make his own impact, announcing that Russia was withdrawing from START II, prompting France and Germany to criticize Russia as harshly as they had criticized the United States when it withdrew from the ABM Treaty.

Brazil:
The decision made by President by Fernando Henrique Cardoso to devalue the Real in early 1999 made for a turbulent few weeks and months as the currency readjusted itself to market value. Cardoso, however, had gotten leniency from the IMF especially as regards cutting the budget deficit. It was not that Cardoso was against cutting budget deficit, it was just the case that he did not want the deficit cut at a rate that would cause social unrest. Brazil’s was a quite economic recovery, its recovery underpinned by 5% economic growth in 2000.

Attending the G-15 Summit in Egypt in June 2000, Cardoso was struck by the similarity of Indonesia’s experience with that of Brazil’s; both nations’ economy having recovered by mixing policies recommended by the IMF with their own country-specific policies. The only difference, from Cardoso’s perspective, being the scale of Indonesia’s economic recovery with growth figures in that country reaching 11.4%. Cardoso got along well with Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin, both being economists. The two renewed their ties at the G-15 Summit in Jakarta in May 2001 with a deal that will be announced by the President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno in his State Address in 2001.

Argentina:
Much as Brazil, Argentina began to manage the crisis it was in balancing the reforms demanded of it by the IMF but getting some leniency from the IMF so that the policies implemented does not cause social unrest especially as regards the cutting of the budget deficit. For President Eduardo Duhalde, the question that lingered in the background was whether or not Argentina should abandon its 1 Peso = $1 exchange rate. This exchange rate mechanism was making Argentina’s exports less competitive at a time when Brazil, Argentina’s primary export market had devalued its currency. At the same time, the exchange rate mechanism was put in place was put in place because Argentina had a hyperinflationary past.

As the US Presidential Election got more intense, Duhalde became worried with Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain’s rhetoric that the IMF should be supported rather than have their conditions “watered down by requests for leniency”. When McCain emerged victorious in the US Presidential Elections, Duhalde made the decision to abandon the 1 Peso= $1 Exchange rate out of the determination that Argentina needed to earn revenue from exports and the believe that the leniency it was enjoying would soon come to an end. The peso quickly lost its value but Argentina’s exports suddenly became competitive. Its cattle (at least until the foot and mouth outbreak) and its soybean exports, for example, quickly found a market in Indonesia.

United States:
By August 2000, the United States Presidential Elections now have their two tickets. The Republicans nominated Senator John McCain and Governor George W. Bush while the Democrats nominated Vice President Al Gore and Senator Evan Bayh. Gore proudly associated himself with the Clinton Administration saying that Clinton presided over a period of prosperity. But McCain would make the effective argument that though it was a time of economic prosperity for the nation, the Clinton Administration was going to come to an end with the United States being in “another Cold War” with Russia.

The two tickets ran a tight race until the Presidential Debates began turning the tide in McCain’s favor. Gore made the argument that Primakov was nothing to worry about and that Primakov’s foreign policy was predicated on disagreeing with whatever the United States was doing. When McCain made his rebuttal, Gore could be heard sighing in disagreement though some saw this as condescension. “He has a good point but does he have to be patronizing to McCain?”

At the end of the day the perceptions that Gore was patronizing, that the Clinton Administration had brought the United States back “full circle” into another Cold War, and news mere weeks before the election that Russia had withdrawn from a 1995 Agreement signed with the United States limiting conventional weapons sales to Iran that was signed by Gore meant that it was McCain’s time. In November 2000, he and George W. Bush were elected President and Vice President of the United States.

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21st January 2001:
The strains of “Hail to the Chief” played as John McCain finished taking his oath and became the 43rd President of the United States.

“Do you suppose you’ll cross paths with him, Dear?” asked First Lady Tuti Setiawati.

“I’ll see him at APEC or some other summit. Probably will pay him a visit or he will pay me a visit”, said President Try Sutrisno “But other than that, I probably won’t have a lot to do with him.”



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Maybe it’s because Indonesia’s a middle power instead of a superpower but the flaps of the butterfly lessen by the time we get to Europe and the Americas. Thus far butterflies caused by Indonesia have occurred by other nations (ie. Russia, Brazil, and Argentina) getting some leniency from the IMF the way Indonesia had done.

The ITTL world can be described as either being in a “New Cold War” (The US Point of View) or a “Multipolar World” (The Russian Point of View).

OTL, George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM Treaty in December 2001 and the START II Treaty gets superceded by the SORT Treaty.

Didn’t really want to go to deep with the United States mostly because I don’t want to repeat things and because we’re going to get a good look at the United States in the main TL.

There are definitely a lot of other countries that I haven't mentioned. This is so because of:
-Time constraints (I want to get back to Try, too).
-I can't comprehend what the effects brought about by ITTL Indonesia to them are of if there are any effects.
-They will be better introduced ITTL (Madagascar and Suriname comes to mind)

Of course the ITTL world's not going to be static but this part-OTL and part-ITTL world is going to be the international background for ITTL Indonesia for the remainder of the TL. It's going to be the environment in which ITTL Indonesia

OK we're back to President Try Sutrisno’s 2001 State Address in the next update.

 

[GSD310]

Aspirations Part I​

Mr. Chairman,
Vice chairmen,
Honorable members of the DPR,
and Indonesians wherever you may be.

Let us first and foremost give our thanks to Almighty God for it is due to His grace and protection that we are all able to gather here today in good health to attend this event.

This morning we stand on the eve of the 56th Anniversary of our Nation’s Independence. 56 years since that morning on 17th August 1945 when Soekarno and Hatta proclaimed our nation’s independence on behalf of all Indonesian people.

Our Proclamation was not a long statement but it contained in it the culmination of a long process. It was the culmination of a long struggle. At first this struggle was a physical one, fought on the battlefield by men and women from all over Indonesia who would become our national heroes against colonizers. Then it became a struggle of ideas. Men and women from all over Indonesia, in organizations rather than in the battlefields, struggled by embracing ideas such as that of One Archipelago, One Nation, One Language.

We were colonized and then occupied. Until we arrived at last at independence.

Yet Independence was not without its own struggles for our journey as a nation has been filled with successes and failures, highs and lows, triumphs and defeats. We have faced returning colonizers to the point that our capital was taken and our president and vice president imprisoned. We have faced separatist rebellions going on at the same time in Sumatra and Sulawesi. We have faced a brazen attempt at a coup d’etat by communists in 1965.

Yet through the resilience of our people, the sacrifices of our heroes, and above all else, the blessing of Almighty God, our nation had weathered the challenges and stood strong!

We look at the past as a source of strength and pride as well as to measure how far we have progressed. But the past is of no use to us unless it guides us in our present struggles and in guiding our present struggles, allow us to lay the foundations of the future.

Honorable members of the DPR, permit me now to not only deliver the State Address to you on the eve of our Independence Day as convention has dictated but also to state the Government’s views on various issues in our national life.

The journey that our nation has embarked on is that of development. We do not want to merely be independent, we want that independence to have substance. The struggles that has led to independence would have been for naught if our people are not well-fed, well-clothed, and well-housed or if they are unemployed or lack access to education and health.

We want our nation to be a just and prosperous society based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution.

The means to achieve this end is national development and our nation, from the time of President Soeharto, has chosen to take this road of national development. Our national development strategy is clear, it is envisioned that a just and prosperous society would be reached in the 50 years since 1969. This 50 year process is divided into two Long Term Development Plans each lasting 25 years. In turn each Long Term Development Plan comprises of five Five Year Development Plans (Repelita), of which we are currently in Repelita VII. In the seventh out of ten five year development plans.

The Government commits itself to continuing this National Development Strategy. The Government seeks to complete the Repelita VII and its targets. In due course, the Government will begin work on the Repelita VIII which will be due to begin at the 2003/2004 Financial Year.

The role of the economy in national development is vital. The employment and business opportunities created, the goods and services produced, the revenues and profit generated are a reflection of whether or not the national economy is doing well. In turn, the amount of revenue the Government can collect and spend on education, health, and housing as well as infrastructure. Our capability to improve our defense and our stature on foreign policy also depend on how well the economy is doing.

Last year, I informed you that the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia is over. This year, I inform you that our economy is strong. The 2001 Recession has taken hold around the world and in our region. It has meant that our exports and the number of foreign tourists which will visit our shores this year will decline. But this has been more than made-up for by our domestic demand, so much so that our exporters have begun to sell more their goods on the domestic market. Our currency is also at its strongest since before the Asian Financial Crisis.”

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Vice President JB Sumarlin had a front row seat, his chair only a few short meters away from the lectern where the President was speaking. The DPR members applauded the news that the Indonesian economy had remained strong even with an international recession and that was to be expected. But Sumarlin knew the President was not satisfied.

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“Even with these encouraging developments, even with last year’s economic growth figures, and even with the region struggling with the effects of the downturn, our nation cannot be complacent.

In the immediate years preceding the Asian Crisis, our nation was complacent. We struggled for a few of these years in attracting foreign investment because we were not as competitive as China, India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. We signed up to commitments to open our markets to ASEAN and APEC but we never prepared our industries for the competition that will come. We established a National Car which turned out to be manufactured in South Korea and imported to Indonesia without having to pay any duties. We thought it was nothing when our currency began to lose its value in July-August 1997. We even thought for a short while during the Asian Financial Crisis that the common practice of dispensing special favors to those close to power to continue.

But at the time we had three decades of economic growth and increased living standards behind us. We had what the world referred to as strong economic fundamentals. The truth is we were complacent.

The present economic situation must not become an opportunity to become complacent. On the contrary we must use see the current situation as an opportunity to advance further down the road of national development so that we can become the great nation that we know we can become.”

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Sitting at his table with the vice chairmen of the DPR, Chairman of DPR Harmoko could see a lot of wincing coming from the direction of the DPR’s PKPB members. In the nearly 4 years that he had been in office, Try never spoke ill of Soeharto. Yet there was the President openly blaming the nation’s unreadiness to face the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 on his predecessor.

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“Mr. Chairman and honorable members of the DPR,

Permit me and the Government to renew our commitment to the people, to the nation, and to the goal of national development by outlining a set of aspirations for our nation to work towards:

Relatively High Economic Growth and Low Inflation:​

The Government aspires to a relatively high level of economic growth. We commit to this goal not for its own sake or for the sake of an impressive looking number, but because a higher level of economic growth will create more employment opportunities, increase living standards, and reduce poverty. More broadly speaking, a higher level of economic growth will allow us to increase our economic weight in the world and increase our influence.

This economic growth must be coupled with low inflation otherwise the gains of economic growth will be wiped out. When we think of inflation, we think of the dark ages in the 1960s when inflation was in the triple digits. We are far from these state of affairs but we cannot take anything for granted.

Infrastructure Development:
The Government seeks to achieve this aspiration of relatively high economic growth and low inflation by putting emphasis on infrastructure development.

In the coming months and years, the Government is seeking to plan, build and complete toll roads, road networks, bridges, airports, ports, railway tracks, dams, irrigation networks, electricity powerplants, telecommunication networks, and various other forms of infrastructure throughout the nation. We want these infrastructures to facilitate and encourage economic activity and therefore stimulate economic growth. We want these infastructures to push costs down prices and therefore inflation by making even the furthest reaches of our large archipelago accessible for the movement of goods, services, and people.

I have no doubt that ours will be a challenging road when it comes to infrastructure but this is no reason not to try.

This is why today I am announcing the following:

The Central Government, with the Provincial Governments of Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Java also contributing funds, will complete the Trans-Java in three years time. It is the Government’s target that by Independence Day 2004 Merak in West Java and Banyuwangi in East Java will be linked and that Jakarta and Surabaya will be linked by a toll road…”

The DPR members, notably from the PKPI applauded this announcement.

“Furthermore, I also make the announcement that I have approved the proposal, with funding contribution to be made by the Central Government, of the Provincial Governments of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, and Lampung to construct a Trans-Sumatran Toll Road. Both of these projects are signals of the Government’s commitment…”

More applause from the DPR members.

“These projects are signals of the Government’s commitment to infrastructure development.

Producing Not Merely Consuming:
In addition to infrastructure development, we must support high growth and low inflation by balancing our society’s economic tendencies.

Our recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis can be traced back to the second half of 1999 when the currency has been stabilized, the BLBI repayments have been guaranteed, the positive effects of the May 1998 Stimulus are being felt, and businesses began to feel more secure employing again. But It was the consumers’ confidence to spend their money on goods and services which truly signaled that our economy had recovered. Now in 2001, it is once again consumer demand that has kept our economy shielded from the international downturn that had driven many countries into recession.

But economics is about balance. Consumption of goods and services means that the economy is not idle, that there is economic activity. At the same time, if the balance of economic activity in this country is tilted too far in favor of consumption then we will be simply that, a nation of consumers; consuming goods both domestic and foreign alike.

Our capacity to consume must be matched with an increase in productive capacity. It is in addition to pushing infrastructure development, the Government is facilitating the expansion of domestic investment across various sectors. Most recently the Government in recent times the Government has seen fit to increase interest rates, placed a ban on shops selling their goods on credit on consumers, and tightening criteria for business credit. This is to ensure that funds are put to productive use in the economy.

Multi-Dimensional Approach to Development:
Fellow Indonesians,

Economic development cannot be said to have occurred if no less than all Indonesians have felt the benefits of economic development. To that end the Government is committed to a multi-dimensional approach in development comprising rural, urban, and development in Eastern Indonesia.

In rural areas, it means ensuring that those in villages have access to electricity, sanitation, and clean water.

In urban areas, it means making sure that our cities have amenities such as sidewalks, parks, and public transport to accommodate our growing urban population.

Across the nation, it means that economic development is felt in Eastern Indonesia as much as it is in Western Indonesia; felt in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya as much as it is in Sumatra, Java, and Bali.

Nobody is being left behind. It is in the nation’s interest that development occur in our villages, cities, and across in our nation for it means that the nation’s resources will be fully mobilized in the pursuit of high economic growth and low inflation aspiration I have mentioned.

A Resilient Industry and A Strong Agriculture​

Mr. Chairman,

As a Presidential Aide-de-Camp, I have often listened to President Soeharto convey his ideas on the process of national development. A common thought that oftened crossed his mind was that the economy must be supported by a resilient industry and a strong agriculture.

As President, I am often reminded of this aspiration that our nation will have a resilient industry and a strong agriculture and have decided to make it my own…”

An applause rippled through the DPR members, led by the PKPB members who applauded more for the mention of Soeharto than they did for Try.

“A Resilient Industry:
Honorable Members of the DPR,

In the last 3 decades, our industrial sector has rapidly expanded. On average, it has grown at a faster rate than the economy and its contribution to our economy when compared to other sectors has also grown larger. But this sector is not without its problems.

The year I took office, the following numbers may be found in relation to the percentage of raw materials, intermediate goods, parts, and components that are imported across various industries. 45% of inputs in the chemical industry are imported, 56% in the transport equipment industry, and 70% in electronic goods. In the textile, garment, and leather industries the number ranged between 40-43%. In footwear, this is 56%.

We should take note that in 1992, Indonesia had signed on to the ASEAN Free Trade Area the implementation of which is currently suspended and that in 1994, Indonesia had also committed to APEC’s Bogor Goals: all developed countries in APEC to have 0 tariffs by 2010 and all developing countries to have 0 tariffs by 2020.

If we are already recording high numbers of imported parts and components without these international trade agreements having come into effect, we can only imagine what it would be like with these agreements in effect.

Industry must be resilient and resilient in four ways:

-Industry must be resilient for its own sake. Its structure must be deepened and linkages made from the upstream to the downstream so it can be become stronger and therefore resilient. More of the intermediate goods, parts, and components must be manufactured and processed here in Indonesia rather than imported.

Aluminium is widely used in daily life and its raw material is bauxite, of which our nation has sufficient supplies of. Yet for the most part, we export the bauxite raw; importing it after it had been processed overseas as alumina so that it can be processed here as aluminium. So to strengthen our nation’s position in this industry our focus must be to build bauxite smelter to process bauxite to alumina. And in this regard, we must acknowledge PT Antam’s joint venture with its Japanese partner currently underway in West Kalimantan, which will see the construction of a bauxite smelter.

-Industry must be resilient in the sense that it must be able to fulfill and support the demand placed on it by the economy. In the last 12 months, our construction sector has become to pick up pace with houses, apartments, shop-houses, warehouses, and office buildings. An active construction sector must necessarily mean increased demand for building materials such as steel. But with steel we make the same mistake as aluminium, we export raw iron ore and then import it when it has been processed overseas into sponge iron so that it can be processed in Indonesia into steel. Tomorrow, after the Independence Day celebrations, I will be attending a teleconference where there will be a groundbreaking for PT Meratus Jaya’s factory in South Kalimantan. PT Meratus is a joint venture between PT Antam and PT Krakatau Steel.

-Industry must be resilient so that our nation is better placed to compete with imported goods at the present time and in the future if and when the international trade agreements we sign come into effect. When AFTA comes into effect and the trade liberalization targets of the Bogor Goals achieved, the only thing separating us from competition will be the quality of our products.

-Industry must be resilient so that in the event of another currency crisis, there are sufficient levels of parts and components manufactured in the country and the economy does not slow down due to a lack of intermediate goods or spare parts which must be imported from outside the country. In the Asian Financial Crisis, our transportation sector broke down and movement of goods, services, and people slowed down because the imported spare parts of our buses and trucks became more expensive as a result of the Rupiah losing its value.

Fellow Indonesians,

To achieve these goals, our various industries must move as one unit. None more important than the other but each as important as each other. We need a strong and resilient handicraft and furniture industries to easily absorb employment just as we will need a strong and resilient steel and cement industries to provide material for our construction sector. Be they large or small, upstream or downstream, labor intensive or capital intensive, operating in a large factory or in a small shop, and everything in between, our industry must move as one.

For this reason, I have seen fit to abolish the Strategic Industries Management Agency (BPIS) and made it a part of the Department of Industry; the term Strategic Industries implying that industries not defined as such are non-strategic.

Even so, let me state for the record that the Government is committed to all of the industries in the country and it is committed to all industries because it is a sign of our nation’s progress and source of pride.

This is why, with a feeling of great pride, I announce that on 23rd August 2001, the 25th Anniversary of the foundation of the Indonesian Aviation Industry (IPTN) will launch its third N250 airplane prototype and…”

A thunderous applause filled the DPR building, led by the PKPI DPR members but with the PKPB DPR members joining as well. Try waited patiently until the applause died down.

“…And at this event, this third N250 prototype will also be making its first flight.”

A standing applause from all those present greeted this announcement.

“A Strong Agriculture:
Mr. Chairman,

Though we see our factories are visible symbols of our nation in development, we cannot forget our agricultural sector. Though agriculture sector’s share of the economy had declined over the last three decades but it remains the sector that employs most of our workforce. During the Asian Financial Crisis, it was a place of refuge for those who were laid off in the cities and decided that they had better prospects for employment by returning to the villages, working in the fields and harvesting crops.

Even more than just a place for refuge, our agricultural sector has thrived during the last few years. The upside of the Asian Financial Crisis is that the price of agricultural commodities such as coffee and rubber had become more competitive on the world market leading to increased volume in agricultural exports. Domestically, our agricultural sector’s progress has been steady and we can say that we were never in shortage of food commodities both during and after the Asian Financial Crisis.

Our agriculture is strong but it must be made stronger still.

It must be made strong in the sense that it must become an economic sector in resurgence, not in decline. And the way to do this is for agriculture to add value to its commodities. We do this by processing our agricultural commodities. Our corn farmers can, for example, produce corn egg rolls, corn chips and they can even package their corn and sell it as animal fodder in their village. Our orange farmers can sell orange juice or orange candy. We can go all day with the possibilities.

For this reason, I have formed the Agribusiness-Agroindustry Coordination Committee last June to function as a coordinating forum across various departments and agencies on matters regarding agribusiness and agro-industry. We want to give information on how to manage and run a business, access to credit, access to networks and partners, and provide opportunities for farmers to market their products to both domestic and foreign markets alike.

Honorable members,

Agriculture must be strong in the sense that it must respond to the demands that, not just economy, but the entire nation will place on it. I am talking of course about agriculture’s role to provide food and in particular our staple food.

It was through the efforts of Government policies in the past that this nation achieved Rice Self-Sufficiency in 1984. Since that time, we have lost and regained this position though at the present, we do not have rice self-sufficiency because we are still importing rice.

The Government believes in rice self-sufficiency. The Government believes even more in maintaining secure supplies of staple food in order to manage demand, maintain price stability, and ensure that our people will always have access to staple foods.

Fellow Indonesians,

Today I am announcing to you two new policies as it relates to rice.

First, after a two year transition process, Bulog will cease to purchase rice and will instead begin purchasing unhusked rice. Under good storage conditions, rice can be stored for up to 3 years but unhusked rice can be stored for up to 2-3 years longer. By stocking up on unhusked rice, we will be able to hold on to our rice supplies for longer and lessen the need for rice imports. These unhusked rice can be milled into rice on an as-needed basis, in the process creating additional temporary employment…”

Scattered applause from the PKPI DPR members.

Second, we must add deeds to our words when it comes to staple food diversification. Today I announce that the Department of Agriculture will prioritize, encourage, and facilitate the growing and cultivation of sago in the provinces of Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya. In these three provinces, the priority, funding, resources, and support previously given to rice will now be given to sago. At the same time, we will also be conducting a campaign to consume sago in these provinces.

Consequently, the Maluku, Irian Jaya, and East Nusa Tenggara Provincial Bulog will be undergoing a three year transition process at the end of which, the Bulog in these three provinces will be exclusively stocking up on sago instead of rice…”

The camera panned the DPR members, showing that DPR members originating from these three provinces were applauding the loudest.

“Mr. Chairman,

By holding on to larger supply of rice at any one time and decreasing the demand for rice by encouraging diversification of staple food, the Government will once again achieve rice self-sufficiency.

But more than that, the Government will go even beyond rice self-sufficiency and will bring about diversification of staple food by establishing sago as an alternative staple food!”

---
At the ministerial seats, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja led the standing applause and shook hands with the ministers next to him and waved and nodded to others too far away to his seat. State Secretary Edi Sudrajat gave a thumbs up and a nod to Sarwono, the latter had made good on his promise the previous year to take Try and the Government out of Soeharto’s shadow in agriculture.

“That’s Economic Growth and Low Inflation as well as Industry and Agriculture down”, said Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman giving an update “Natural Resources, Human Resources, and Pancasila Society is next.”

Everyone else in the DPR was giving a standing applause, it would have looked unseemly if the PKPB did not join in. Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono led the applause but he had a frown on his face.

“This is not a State Address, this is a campaign speech”, he muttered.

---
Part I down.

In writing this part (and the other parts) I consulted with speeches made by OTL Ginandjar Kartasasmita when he was the Head of BAPPENAS. Of course Try’s Government would not copy everything but it gives some idea as to what the New Order was aiming for it did not fall from power. An example is this speech: http://perpustakaan.bappenas.go.id/lontar/file?file=digital/15632-[_Konten_]-Konten 3629.pdf

OTL Trans-Java completed in December 2018. OTL Trans-Sumatera in progress.

Soeharto on resilient industry and strong agriculture is from https://soeharto.co/ke-arah-industri-strategis/

Stats of imported components in the various industries is from https://books.google.co.id/books?id=YsJI4L8yBBwC&printsec=frontcover&dq=indonesia%27s+economy+since+independence&hl=id&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwik95SLgYDuAhU04XMBHaeuAQcQ6AEwAHoECAQQAg#v=onepage&q=indonesia's%20economy%20since%20independence&f=false p.163

Have not yet determined who the CEO of Antam ITTL but they've certainly been busy.

OTL Habibie aimed for 4 prototypes of N-250 and completed two before Soeharto agreed to stop funding in 1998 as part of the IMF’s conditions. https://finance.detik.com/industri/...eri-nama-4-versi-pesawat-n-250-buatan-bandung

The idea of Bulog purchasing unhusked rice has been mentioned a lot over the years but I specifically drew it from this Rizal Ramli interview https://successfulsocieties.princet...s/interviews/transcripts/3235/Rizal_Ramli.pdf p.18

The idea of diversifying staple foods has also been mentioned a lot over the years. No specific source that I drew the idea to emphasize sago in those three provinces from but I thought it was in line with Try continuing the road to national development which Soeharto begun but all the while fixing problems and adding his own touch on things.

 

[GSD310]

----
At Cendana Street, there was a big frown on Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s at the standing ovation greeting President Try Sutrisno’s announcements on rice policy and the establishment of sago as staple food in Maluku, Irian Jaya, and East Nusa Tenggara.

“He’s butchering Dad’s policies”, she said.

“He’s playing it smart, Mbakyu”, said Tutut’s brother Bambang Trihatmodjo.

“You’re defending him?” asked Tutut in disbelief.

“Mas Bambang has a point”, said Tutut’s brother-in-law and Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto “People who think that the last 3 decades had been a success for Indonesia but who think that some changes need to be made around the edges are the people for whom the President holds strong appeal. That’s why all we’ve been hearing is “We’ve done well, we just need to do this and that to be even better.”

“How do we counter it?” asked Tutut again.

“We don’t”, replied Prabowo calmly “We’ve got to keep playing our game. We’ve got a well-funded organization around Indonesia, that’s what’s prompting him to use the State Address as a veiled campaign speech. We keep playing our game, we put as many PKPB members as possible in the DPR and MPR, and we increase your chances of winning.”

---
“

Utilizing Our Natural Resources ​

Honorable members of the DPR,

Much has been made about our nation’s natural resources. People say that we only need to plant a seed into our soil, do nothing, and plants would sprout. If we were to believe that quote and all that has been said about our national resources then all of us in this building has no business being here because everything would be just fine.

As in life, we live not on how much potential we have but what we do with that potential. For our nation to successfully conduct national development, all of the natural resources that has been endowed to us by Almighty God must be placed at our disposal and utilized.

And so today I outline the Government’s aspirations as it relates to natural resources.

Natural Resources That Has Not Been Fully Utilized:
Fellow Indonesians,

Our nation comprises of more than 17,000 islands, 81,000 KMs of coastline and 62% of our total area comprise of water. Despite this and despite the song which says that “my ancestor was a sailor”, we forget or don’t acknowledge enough that we are a maritime nation. Calling ourselves an “agrarian nation”, the large natural resource that is our sea is lumped together as part of agriculture.

Our seas and the resources contained within are too important to be merely lumped together. This was why at a time when we were cutting spending, I had no second thoughts about forming a Department of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. We needed to secure and utilize our maritime resources. We also want fisheries to provide employment and a livelihood for those who choose fisheries as their path and for fisheries to provide an alternative source of food.

It is this Government’s intention that fisheries should have the same role in our seas that agriculture plays on land. To be sure, there is more to be done in this regard”

Applause by DPR members.

“Land is another natural resource we have yet to utilize properly; for the simple fact that the Government has not been good enough in the services it provide.

Since 1988, our nation has had a National Agrarian Agency (BPN). In its 13 years of existence, the BPN has issued 30 million land certificates. If as the numbers suggest we have an estimated 89 million land parcels, it means that we’ve only issued land certificates for 1/3 of our lands. The other 2/3 have gone unrecorded and this could may well lead to disputes.

In the last few years the Government has focused on issuing land certificates for houses and buildings developed and/or sold in the last two years as well as land to be released for infrastructure projects but we, in this case the BPN, need to do better. Not only in terms of simplifying and cleaning up procedures for the issuance land certificates but also further developing the BPN’s capabilities through computerization.

By providing for legal certainty on land we will make it possible for Indonesians to feel more secure in utilizing their land whether it be to build a property, open a business on it, rent the land or use it as a collateral for bank loans in order to open a business.

Such are our natural resources which has only begun to be utilized.

Maximizing Our Utilization of Natural Resources:

Mr. Chairman,

What natural resources we are already utilizing needs to be maximized so that it will make a large contribution to our development.
In tourism, this means promoting alternative tourist attractions, building infrastructure leading to these alternative tourist attractions, and supporting the tourism, hospitality, and related industries as it relates to these alternative tourist attractions. We do not want our tourism industry to only be reliant on one location if our goal, as stated in Repelita VII, is for tourism to be our largest foreign currency earner.

Maximalization also applies in mining. In the nearly 4 years since I had assumed office, the Government has gone ahead with projects to construct the second and third EXOR oil refineries. EXOR II will be in Sorong, Irian Jaya in cooperation with partners including Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and ground has been broken last year while EXOR III will be in Bintan, Riau with partners including British Petroleum with ground due to be broken late this year or early next.
Today I announce that we will also proceed with the fourth EXOR refinery. This refinery will be located in Dumai Riau and…. “

Applause by DPR members.

“…and our partners for this project will also include Brazil’s Petrobras. I must credit the Vice President at this point for his ongoing work in convincing the Brazilians to be involved with this project….”


Vice President JB Sumarlin smiled at the applause that came his way. Try turned to him and nodded.

“The Government attaches great importance to these projects in the field of energy for two reasons. First, it will allow us to export petroleum rather than merely crude oil. Second, though these refineries will be export-oriented, it will also allow us to meet more of our increased domestic requirements.
Fellow Indonesians wherever you may be,

The Government wishes to utilize and maximize the utilization of all of the nation’s natural resources in the interests of the Indonesian people. When these interests are not well-served, the Government reserves the right to take action on behalf of the Indonesian people.

Our forests, much as our other natural resources, are the third largest tropical forests in the world. It is a utilized natural resources in the pursuit of national development. Yet all of us here in this building and at home know that our forests are wrongly taken advantage of by those acting out of selfish short term interests, often times holders of forest concessions operating beyond the boundaries of what they are legally allowed to do and not following regulations.

In 1997, news came to light of a company based in Tawau, Sabah, Malaysia was caught ferrying 3,000 undocumented logs from across the border in East Kalimantan. It was further found that the logs belonged to a “major concessionaire” in Indonesia and that these 3,000 undocumented logs only is only 1/7 of all undocumented logs smuggled from Indonesia to Malaysia to be then exported to Japan. The Government has conducted investigation and has determined that to this day, this concessionaire, identified as PT Yamaker has continued its illegal operations.

In July, as previously announced by the Government, a 12 month period has begun in which all forest concessionaires are given the opportunity to comply with existing laws and regulations before legal action is taken against those contravening the law.

With reference to PT Yamaker’s continuing non-compliance of the law and to show the seriousness of the Government to protect Indonesia’s natural resources, I announce today that the revocation of PT Yamaker’s Forest Concession Right and that as of 1st January 2002, these concession rights will be taken over by PT. Perhutani.”

The applause this time was led by ABRI’s DPR members led by the Leader of ABRI in the DPR Fachrul Rozi. The camera cut to Commander of ABRI Wiranto who was giving a strong applause at the cabinet ministers’ seats.

“I do not wish to be seen as handing out punishments or making examples. Only that now all forest concession holders engaging in smuggling, illegal logging, building illegal saw mills and other illegal activities will bring their arrangements to order.”

---

Somewhere in South Jakarta, Chairwoman of PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri and her inner circle also watched the speech.

“That’s a big one”, said Secretary of PNI Sutjipto “He’s sending a message there: “If I’m willing to go after a forest concession holder affiliated to and backed by ABRI, I’m going to be even more willing to go after everybody else.”

“On the other hand”, began Taufiq Kiemas “He needs something big in natural resources to compensate for the fact that he couldn’t do anything about Freeport.”

“I’m curious what he bought ABRI off with”, said Treasurer of PNI Laksamana Sukardi “That’s over 1 million hectares of forest concessions he just revoked.”

“If our source in the Try camp is correct, those 5 new infantry brigades announced not too long ago was the price for this”, said Taufiq “Along with spending more on defense .”

Human Resources​

Honorable members of the DPR,

Whilst our natural resources are plentiful, they will be of no use if there is no one to utilize and take advantage of it. Our lands will remain empty, our minerals will remain underground, and our industries unbuilt unless there are those among us with the necessary skills and integrity to use these resources well and for a greater good better than themselves. Increasingly, our emphasis on what we need to utilize most must shift from our natural resources to human resources.

Education:
Before we can utilize our human resources, we must develop it and key to this is our education.
The Government is committed to the following in education:
-Achieving Compulsory 9 Year Education by the end of Repelita VII:

During the Asian Financial Crisis, as part of the May 1998 Stimulus Package and to encourage economic activity, the Government has engaged in a massive program to build junior high school buildings; significantly expanding the physical infrastructure for this level of education. We have built on that by increasing teacher training. Post-crisis, the Government has been very heartened to find that people, especially of low income and in both rural and urban areas, are secure enough economically and enthusiastic enough to send their children to school.

Though the original aim has been for the end of Repelita VIII in 2009 Financial Year to achieve Compulsory 9 Years Education, the Government feels that the present circumstances should be taken advantage of and have made it the goal to ensure Compulsory 9 Years Education by the end of Replita VII in 2004.

-Vocational Education:

Beyond these 9 years of education, the Government will be emphasizing improvement of access towards vocational education. This is so that our young men and women have more opportunity to become skilled, making them a more attractive prospect for employment in factories, mines, hotels, and construction sites or as the case may be, the certification needed to be a service provider as they open their own car repair garage or hairdressing salon.

-Early Childhood Education:
When I assumed office, there are 115 state kindergartens across Indonesia mostly functioning as pilot projects and training centers for kindergarten teachers and operators. In my time as president, this number has not changed much. Compare this to the more than 41,000 private kindergartens across Indonesia and is it any wonder that early childhood education is still considered a luxury.

Early childhood education should not be a luxury. Instead, it should be an opportunity for all to begin early with their child’s personal development.

This is why in March this year, I have given approval to the Minister of Education to begin expansion of access to kindergartens across the nation. Teachers are receiving training and state primary schools around the nation have begun adding additional classrooms and expanding their playgrounds to facilitate kindergarten classes which will take place there. Reading, writing, and counting will be taught in kindergartens but the emphasis will be on moral education so that our children, from the earliest age, will be prepared to have morals and values so that they can become good citizens.

We have begun with 115 state kindergartens, our goal is by 2008, early childhood education, at the very least kindergarten, will available for all Indonesians…”

The President stops as another applause greeted this announcement.

“
Working Lifes:

Honorable members of the DPR,

Whatever the choice they make in their working lives, I hope that, as much as possible, all Indonesians will come to have employment that is meaningful for themselves, the opportunity to use the skills which they have acquired, and through these things make a positive contribution to society whatever their line of work is.

The Government’s goal as it relates to the people’s working life is to ensure the best working conditions possible because employment is the means by which people earn income for themselves and their families.

In 1997, my predecessor’s Government had passed a Manpower Law. However controversy surrounding the process of passing this law along with the Government’s priority on making sure that Indonesians are able to be employed again as the economy recovers, has meant that this law has not implemented though at the same time it has not come info effect.

After conducting careful study, the Government has determined that not only that this law has not come into effect but that this law should not come into effect. Accordingly, with this address I have attached a letter to you, Mr. Chairman, asking for the DPR’s agreement that this law be revoked.

In its place, the Government intends to submit a new Manpower Bill by the end of the year. This bill will contain provisions regulating such things working conditions, minimum wages, and dismissals, the aim of which will be to establish an industrial system acceptable to workers and employers alike and which will facilitate the creation of employment.

Fellow Indonesians,

One phenomena which we all witnessed during the Asian Financial Crisis is that more of our fellow citizens, usually after losing their employment, have decided to create employment rather than look for it. Often understated is the role that small and medium enterprises have played in our economic recovery. These small and medium enterprises create employment initially the person setting up the business and as it grows, generating further employment for others and encouraging others to try the same.

It is the Government’s task, across the various departments and agencies, to facilitate the nation’s small and medium enterprises so that it can make its contribution to our nation’s economic life in accordance with Presidential Instruction 4/1995. I would like to emphasize two ways in which the Government can facilitate these enterprises:

First, though such services should be provided to all citizens not just small and medium enterprises, the Government can facilitate small and medium enterprises by cutting bureaucratic red tape; less waiting times, less bureaucratic hurdles to go through, and less forms to sign. The worst thing the Government can do at a time when people are interested in opening businesses is to get caught up in being bureaucratic.

Second, the Government can facilitate, though once again this treatment should be given to all citizens, small and medium enterprises by giving them legal certainty and equal opportunity. Whatever their size, the regional or ethnic origin of the owners, or how close they are to those in positions in power they must not be favored or discriminated against. They must have equal opportunity.

Health:
Mr. Chairman,

No less important than educating and skilling as well as facilitating our human resources is the task of ensuring their physical well-being. Without good health, Indonesians will not be able to be active and productive in their daily lives.

The Government’s health policy has been centered around ensuring that our population have access to primary healthcare treatment. Since the 1997/1998 financial year the number of our Community Health Centers has remained at 7,106. However since 1999, the Government has undergone a building program so that all of these Community Health Center buildings will have a second floor. This will increase each Community Health Center’s capacity to provide primary health care as there will be more room for patients though this will be augmented by the recruitment of additional staff.

By the end of the current financial year, over 3,200 Community Health Centers or nearly half of the all existing Community Health Centers… “

Applause from the DPR members.

“…of all existing Community Health Centers will have a second floor and the Government has every intention of completing this and enacting other measures to provide better health services to Indonesians.”

Managing Our Population:

Honorable members of the DPR,

Based on the results of last year’s census, at 204,9 million inhabitants, we are the fourth most populous nation on the planet. On the one hand this makes Indonesia an attractive place as a place to invest in given our potential as a market and as pool of labor.

For the Government, it means that our population must be managed.

In the short term this will be done through our continuing of the transmigration program. We will continue to encourage families to move from Java and settle them in the other major islands around the nation. By giving more priority to those intending to open a business at their new place of settlement and encouraging economic and infrastructure development at transmigration destinations specifically and outside of Java more generally, the Government is seeking to make transmigration an increasing attractive proposition for those wishing to make a new life for themselves and their family.

For the long term, the Government will continue with Family Planning. Though Family Planning campaigns have made as its slogan “Two Children Is Enough”, the nation’s fertility rate as of last year’s census stands at 2.7 babies so that it might be said that though this program has been successful in decreasing birthrates in its three decades of existence, it had not achieved the goal it had set out in its slogan. The goal of the Government with family planning will be to first to reduce fertility rate to at least 2.5 in the medium term and then to 2.0 in the longer term.”

---

As DPR members around him gave an applause to another policy announcement by the President, DPR Member/Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil chuckled to himself. He had thought this would be a routine speech but had perked up when the President first openly criticized the Government’s “complacency” before the Asian Financial Crisis and then when one after another, the President announced goals that he would like to achieve across various areas of policy in the speech.

Matori had done the calculations in his head, there were 19 more months until the President’s current term comes to an end. It would definitely need more than 19 months for the President to implement all the things he was saying and now all this talk about the medium and longer term…

---

That ran longer than I had planned so the section on society gets shifted to the next post.

The number of only 1/3 of all land are certified is from page 2 of https://successfulsocieties.princet...es/LS_Land_Indonesia_Formatted_12.12.17_1.pdf The only difference is that the OTL numbers was reached in 2005 whereas the ITTL numbers is reached in 2001 in keeping with the “ITTL doing better than OTL” theme.

Story of Yamaker is from https://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/articles/AObidzinski0701.pdf

Yamaker’s affiliation to ABRI was that it was a military cooperative. OTL, its forest concession was revoked by Habibie in 1999.

Compulsory 9 Years Education originally being envisioned to be completed in 15 years comes from Wardiman Djojonegoro’s memoirs (https://books.google.co.id/books?id=RCdIDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=wardiman+djojonegoro&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwixkKPh0pDuAhUo6nMBHZHqCmoQ6AEwAXoECAMQAg#v=onepage&q=wardiman djojonegoro&f=false), there’s some parts here where complains about not getting enough funding to achieve Compulsory 9 Years Education though it’s somehow one of the pages that was not scanned. I would point to p. 309 to see some of his concerns.

Numbers of state kindergartens vs private kindergartens circa 1997/1998 comes from https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-...rtanggungjawaban-presiden-tahun-1993-sd-1998/ Chapter XVIII.


The “Puskesmas has second floor” program comes from ITTL. Please go to Threadmark 47 for the beginning of this program.


Retconned Indonesia’s ITTL Population in 2000 from 202,3 million to 204,9 million so that the decrease in birthrate is not so drastic. OTL population is 206 million.

The 1997 Manpower Law is controversial not only because it faced strong resistance from workers but also because when it was formulated, then-Minister of Manpower Abdul Latief allegedly used Rp. 7,1 billion of Jamsostek money to help “smooth” the passing the law. When news began to break of this issue, Soeharto said that he would handle it though nothing ever came of it. Wahid also tried to prosecute but the prosecution was ceased in 2000.

The ITTL fertility rate being at 2.7 is based on https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/da...erah/Statistik 70 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka.pdf where the fertility rate in 1997 is 2.8 with the assumption that the fertility rate has decreased since 1997.

 

[GSD310]

“

Pancasila Society​

Mr. Chairman,
We seek to aim for high growth and utilize all of the resources available not merely to build an economy but to build a society. Indeed, our goal in the past has been “A Just and Prosperous Society Based On Pancasila”. For the present however, we need to do one better. We should aim not only to be a society based on Pancasila but be a Pancasila Society.

Adherence to Pancasila:
To be a Pancasila Society we must first adhere to Pancasila.

This Government believes in Pancasila. It believes in each of the Pancasila’s 5 principles, it believes that Pancasila should continue to be disseminated through continuation of P4 training.

More importantly, it believes that those propagating ideas and worldview contrary to Pancasila should be resisted.

There are two main ideologies and worldviews contrary to Pancasila and which seeks to replace it. The first is the Extreme Left which advocates class struggle and the second is the Extreme Right, which seeks to replace Pancasila with religious-based rule.

The assassination of the Chairman of BP-7 in February 2000 and Operation Sledgehammer which was conducted in January 2001 -of those with links to radical organizations Jemaah Islamiyah and Al Qaeda and of those propagating the Extreme Right in general- has convinced the Government that its vigilance at the present time must be directed towards the Extreme Right.

This does not lessen our vigilance towards the Extreme Left or any other ideologies and worldviews hostile towards Pancasila, but we must remind ourselves that our vigilance must be directed towards all those seeking to replace Pancasila irrespective of where in the political spectrum they came from.

Bhinneka Tunggal Ika:
To be a Pancasila Society is to live according to our state motto Bhinneka Tunggal Ika. Unity in Diversity.

We are over 200 million people, over 17,000 islands, over 600 ethnicities, and 6 recognized faiths. This is who we are: Bhinneka Tunggal Ika, Unity in Diversity. There should not be nor should there any need for distinctions between majorities and minorities. There should not be nor should there be fear of being dominated by majorities or minorities. Everyone is an Indonesian.

The Government will not stand idly by if there are those within our country seeking to divide our nation along religious, ethnicity, class, or other lines.”

Led by its ABRI members, the DPR gave a standing applause at this.

“This diversity is us and when we acknowledge it, we are all the more dynamic and all the more strong for it.

Housing:
To be a Pancasila Society is not only about ideals and visions. In this society, it is always implied that at a material level the basic needs of the members of this society are guaranteed. Sufficient food, sufficient clothing, though today I would like to focus on sufficient housing.

Housing is important and not only because it is a basic need. If the supply of houses cannot keep up with the demand for housing in these economic times, prices of houses will increase and housing will become less accessible.

To account for the Asian Financial Crisis and the effect that it has had on the construction and property development sector and the Government’s priorities on stimulus with fiscal responsibility, Repelita VII has set a target of 450,000 new simple and very simple houses between 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. This is lower than the Repelita VI target of 500,000. Our economy now in a better shape and with over 280,000 constructed, it is the Government’s intention that we should exceed this target by the end of this term in March 2003.

Beyond that the Government must make up for lost time and in that respect, today I announce that for Repelita VIII, the Government will be setting a target of 1,000,000 new simple and very simple…"

A standing applause led by the DPR members from PKPI.

“…and very simple houses.

Honorable members of the DPR,

Though the Asian Financial Crisis is over in Indonesia, there is one unfinished business which the nation has left to settle when it comes to the effects of this crisis. As a result of the loss of value in our currency there are some of our fellow Indonesians who have fallen back into poverty. After reaching a rate of 11% in 1996, the number of those living below the poverty line reached 15% in 1998 before decreasing to 14.4% in 1999 and then again to 13% in 2000. The Government’s goal remains to reach 11%, or back to pre-crisis levels in 1996 before the end of the current term…”

Applause by DPR members.

“The ultimate goal, however, is not to stop at 11%. It is to make sure that all Indonesians are lifted out of poverty. To that end the Government has two programs in store.

The first, already announced, of which pilot projects have already begun, and where the full program will begin next financial year will be the Empowered Communities National Program (PNPM). This program will allow communities in urban and rural areas to -with oversight over budget, planning, and implementation- decide to themselves what kind of projects will be most relevant and best-suited to the needs of their communities when it comes to poverty eradication…”

There was applause from the DPR’s PKPI members though the PKPB members noticeably kept quiet; the establishment of the PNPM program coming at the expense of the Left Behind Villages Presidential Instruction program initiated by President Soeharto.

“The second program, will require more preparation as its scope is significantly larger. That is why today, as a first step, I announce the formation of an Interdepartmental Team to be chaired by the Vice President which will look into the possibility and feasibility of a National Social Insurance System. This team will look a whether or not our Nation has the capability to provide an expanded national health insurance and national work insurance scheme…”

The DPR’s PKPI members, with proud looks on their faces gave the President a standing ovation followed by the PPP and ABRI members. The PKPB members took their time but reluctantly joined in.

“

Being Confident On The World Stage​

Fellow Indonesians,

As we go about making our aspirations come true; to grow our economy and utilize all of our resources both natural and human as well as establish a Pancasila society for the sake of national development, we also want to do these things to increase our stature in the world, we need to remember that Indonesia does not exist in a vacuum. We must take into account our international environment and use the developments occurring in it to our advantage.

Therefore, our nation’s aspiration as it looks outwards into the world is that we want our nation to be confident when it stands on the world stage.

Engaging Economically With The World:
Mr. Chairman,

Our nation is confident on the world stage when it is engaging economically with the world. This has been reflected in our commitment from the mid-1980s of adopting an outward-looking stance so that we can sell what we make not only to our domestic population but also to the world market. Since that time, the majority of our exports have come from the ranks of non-oil and gas exports.

Today I reiterate our two-pronged export strategy.

The first is that we should export value-added goods. Up until the present, our tendency has been to export our goods, in particular our agricultural commodities, in its raw form. We must change our strategy. We must keep these raw goods in the country, add value to it, and then export it overseas. This is why I have decided to ban raw rattan exports. Why export rattan in its raw form when we can process it in our country, encourage industry and employment in the country while we are at it, and then export it as furniture?

The second is that we must expand our export markets. The lesson of the current international recession is that we cannot rely on our major markets to remain economically healthy all the time. The consequence of being export-oriented is that when our market suffers a downturn, our exports also suffer a downturn. As a result, the Government has begun to embark on a strategy to tap into markets in the developed world by promoting exports of fast moving consumer goods. It will not only be our instant noodles which will find space on shelves in Papua New Guinea or Nigeria but also our bottled tea, our detergents, and our over-the-counter medicines.

A matter that is closely related to exports and imports is that of tariffs. In the nearly four years I have held this office, the Government had conducted tariff reductions on an as needed basis to suit the needs of the economy in a particular time rather than as a part of a broader policy package.

Today, I re-commit the Government to pre-existing Free Trade Agreements; in this case the ASEAN Free Trade Area and APEC’s Bogor Goals. Given that the implementation of AFTA was suspended in 1998, I can announce that the Government intends to bring a set of proposals to this year’s ASEAN Summit regarding AFTA. As regards, APEC, the Government is committed to free trade in APEC in 2010 for developed countries and 2020 for developing countries.

Asserting Our National Interests:
Honorable members of the DPR,

Our nation is confident on the world stage when it is able to assert its national interests from a position of independence.

Developments in international politics are something that we need to be mindful of. At the beginning of the previous decade all of us witnessed the end of the Cold War and the arrival of of what has been referred to as the End of History. Yet a decade on after the end of the Cold War, its spectre seems to continue to haunt us. The United States, the world’s remaining superpower, is now having its authority questioned and challenged by Russia and the People’s Republc of China. Some say that this is the beginning of a new Cold War though still others point to the emergence of “poles” in the international order and argued that this was the beginning of a multipolar world.

As it concerns Indonesia, whatever the developments and trends that the world is heading for us, it is imperative for us to focus on our national interests. We should be able to define what these national interests are and leveraging the visible results of the national development we have conducted at home,

be confident enough to assert these national interests. Our foreign policy must be free and active, to that we must add free and active in the assertion of our national interests.

To assert our national interests we will need not only confidence but also a position of foreign policy independence through which our interests can be asserted. On a national level, Indonesia must not become a satellite in a “New Cold War” or a proxy of one of the “poles” in a multipolar world.

On a regional level, the Government believes that the nations of Southeast Asia cannot allow themselves to be used as satellite or proxies. With our sizeable populations and rapidly developing economies, Southeast Asian nations should be able approach the issues of the world from a position of independence and this can only happen if Southeast Asian nations find strength in numbers. As I like to say my fellow Southeast Asian heads of states/governments, the source of their nation’s national security can be found in Southeast Asia but outside of it.

But we cannot achieve strength in numbers if nations in the region are running the risk of becoming satellite and proxies of nations outside the region or of nations seeking to flex their strength. There are 10 of us in ASEAN. Allowing outside influence means giving free votes for those not in the meeting room when an ASEAN Summit is held. It is this outside influence in the region which must be lessened and stood up against in order for Indonesia more specifically and Southeast Asia more generally.

Defending Ourselves:
Finally, our nation has confidence on the world stage if we are able to defend ourselves.

In the last 3 decades we have made a conscious effort to focus on economic development and that this has meant a sacrifice on the part of our defense budget. However, as a percentage of GDP and despite our continually developing and growing economy, defense budget continued to decline. From 3.5% of GDP in 1975 to 1.23 % in 1995 before rising to 1.5% in 1997. Throughout the crisis, the Government has stabilized this decline at 1.2% before increasing to 1.5% in 2000.

The Government intends to significantly increase our nation’s defense spending. This is not a matter of percentages of defense spending to GDP or prestige but a matter of necessity. For a nation with a territory and economy of our size, we need to spend more than 1.5% of our GDP to secure our territories, continually develop ABRI’s weaponry, and care or the welfare of our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and policemen. Our neighbors, for example, are spending upwards of 4% and even 5% of their GDP on defense.

The Government is committed to the defense of our people and to the improvement of ABRI.”

---
As the ABRI members in the DPR building led the applause, Chairman of PKPI/Leader of the PKPI in the DPR Basofi Sudirman joined in. Basofi smiled, the President had taken in the advice he and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono had given; that this State Address, the last one to be given before the 2002 Legislative Elections and with two people gunning for the presidency, should function as a political manifesto of what Try and the PKPI stood for as well as an agenda to the future.

Basofi felt a nudge on his elbow. He turned to his left where DPR member and Treasurer of PKPI Rambe Kamarulzaman waved his mobile phone.

“I just got the message, Mr. Chairman”, he said “The first of the campaign funds has been transferred to the 27 provincial branches.”
---

"

Pancasila Democracy:​

Honorable members of the DPR,

Underpinning all the aspirations which I have mentioned to you above is our political system. It is important that our political system is stable so that the Government can pursue the aspirations already mentioned. Since 1966, that political system has been Pancasila Democracy.

This political system, based on the 1945 Constitution, has served us well. In the final years of my predecessor’s presidency, there have been calls that changes to our political system has been necessary.

I agree that after three decades, some changes to our political system is necessary. It is why since I have taken office, the following has been enacted:

-Changes in the relationship between the Central and Regional Governments. Allowing the latter more share in the revenue from natural resources and more leeway in decision-making whilst remaining within the framework of a Unitary State.

-Establishing two new Special Regions in Irian Jaya and East Timor and passing laws providing the legal framework for the 5 Special Regions we now have in Aceh, Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Irian Jaya, and East Timor.

-Establishing an electoral commission where the chairman’s position is not held by the Minister of Home Affairs to allow for neutrality in the conduct of the election.

-Banning civil servants and active members of ABRI from joining political parties unless they have chosen to retire to allow for a more neutral environment in an election but accommodating the possibility of political aspiration.

-Beginning a process which would see authority over courts transferred from the Department of Legal Affairs to the Supreme Court in 5 years for a more independent judicial branch.

This is not counting the political changes that we had not counted on, the emergence of multiple presidential candidates at the 1998 MPR General Session and the changes in our political parties system; the dissolvement of Golkar, the emergence of the PKPI, PKPB, and PNI, and the absorbtion of the PDI into the PKPB.

I do not for a second disagree that changes can be made to our political system. What I disagree with is the notion that we must change without specifying what it is that such change means. This will lead to change for change’s sake and trying to fit in as much changes as possible. Political reform is important but for the moment, the best guarantor of political reform is political stability. And political stability is ensured by having predictability in our political cycle.

This is why today, I am making my final announcement in this speech.

I announce that there will be a General Election on Tuesday 21st May 2002. As has been the case with all elections since 1971, this election will determine who sits in the MPR, DPR, the Provincial DPRDs and the Regency/Municipal DPRDs.

This will be an important election, the first to be held in Indonesia the 21st century. My wish is for all Indonesians to contribute by casting their votes for political parties which will best advance this nation’s cause as it makes its way into the future.”

Audible gasps could be heard throughout the DPR building, especially from the PKPB members.

“Mr. Chairman,

Such are the aspirations that I have set out for the Government and for the nation: high economic growth and low inflation, resilient industry and strong agriculture, utilizing our natural resources, nurturing our human resources, a Pancasila Society, being confident on the world stage, and Pancasila Democracy.

I have outlined these aspirations so that this Independence Day, we do not merely celebrate the past and the present but look to an even better future.

Because it is all of our hope that this nation in the future will be even more advanced and even more solid in its unity as we go on to fulfill our nation’s goals and realize the goals of the Proclamation of Independence made in 1945.

May Almighty God always bless this beloved nation of ours.
Thank you.
Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.”

---
Thank God it’s done hahahaha. My goal with this speech was just to show that we’re transitioning where increasingly what is considered history are things happening ITTL. Assassination of the Chairman of BP-7 Operation Sledgehammer against the members of the extreme right, and the political reforms mentioned towards the end are all events that happen ITTL.

The stats regarding housing in Repelita VI comes from https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-...ertanggungjawaban-presiden-tahun-1993-sd-1998 chapter X

So we have ITTL’s version of BPJS is also in the process of being worked on here.

Defense spending as a percentage of GDP comes from https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IDN/indonesia/military-spending-defense-budget

Thank you for all who’s been coming back despite the fact that we’ve been stuck on ITTL 16th August 2001 for some time. Let’s get moving through time again.

 

[GSD310]

17th August 2001:
President Try Sutrisno, looking decidedly very confident after making his State Address, led the nation as it commemorated the 56th Anniversary of the Nation’s Independence.

After the Independence Day ceremonies, the President and Vice President JB Sumarlin accompanied by Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo and State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Bacelius Ruru attended a teleconference for a groundbreaking ceremony for an iron smelter in South Kalimantan. The iron smelter is owned by PT Meratus Jaya, joint venture between state-owned enterprises PT Antam and PT Krakatau Steel.

Then there were Friday prayers at Istiqlal Mosque with the President sitting in the front row with Chairman of DPR Harmoko.

Approaching evening, the guests at the Presidential Palace began gathering again for the flag-lowering ceremony. Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto and her husband Indra Rukmana were early and bumped into another couple who had came early; Chairwoman of PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri and her husband Taufieq Kiemas.

“He ambushed us with that Election announcement did he not, Mbak?” asked Tutut after the pleasantries were over.

“You have your funds and organizations, I have my masses and activists, he has his incumbency”, shrugged Megawati “We all have to play to our strengths.”

19th August 2001:
Secretary of PNI/Chairman of the PNI’s National Campaign Sutjipto accompanied by Kwik Kian Gie and Rizal Ramli held a joint press conference. The three provided a response to the President’s State Address. They notably highlighted the President’s silence on Freeport as an admission that the Government had failed to get Freeport to begin divesting its shares to Indonesia as well as the abolition of the National Commission of Human Rights as evidence that the Government does not care about human rights.

A book entitled “President Try’s Aspirations For The Future” which is a transcript of the 2001 State Address and published by the PKPI National Campaign Team begin to appear in bookshops.

20th August 2001:
Speaking to reporters on his way to his office, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas clarified that the President’s announcement about the election date only means that Indonesia has an election date but that things such as when the campaign will be held will be determined later. He called on all four political parties to focus instead of preparing their list of DPR candidates.

In a television interview, Leader of PKPB in the DPR Hartono said that the President’s “staple food” policy was essentially the government giving up on rice self-sufficiency.

21st August 2001:
Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna, Head of Setdal Bimas Usman Hasan, and the top officials of the Department of Agriculture came out of a meeting with the President. Speaking to the press, Sarwono said that the President discussed with them about implementation of his vision for agriculture. Sarwono had a wry smile when he was asked if the Government was giving up on rice self-sufficiency.

“That’s the kind of reaction that I would expect from those who want to impose uniformity on what people eat”, said Sarwono.

22nd August 2001:
The PPP’s National Leadership Council held a meeting today to discuss election preparations. Those inside described a shouting match between Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Chairman of the PPP’s National Campign Hamzah Haz. Hamzah asked why was the PPP not told about the election if it was part of the President’s coalition while Matori said that Hamzah should make it clear he supports the Government rather than “flirting” with the idea of supporting Tutut and PKPB.

Afterwards, Secretary of PPP Bachtiar Chamsyah read out a statement saying that the PPP was ready to mount a strong campaign at the 2002 Elections.

Minister of Education Fakry Gaffar and Minister of Civil Service Kuntoro Mangkusubroto came out of a meeting with with the President. They announced that President Try had approved for the formation of a Directorate General of Early Childhood Education.

23rd August 2001:
The President and his entourage arrived at Husein Sastaranegara Airbase in Bandung, West Java in the morning. Along with Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, State Minister of Research and Technology Indra Bambang Utoyo, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, and Governor of West Java Muzani Syukur, CEO of IPTN Said Djauharsjah Jenie, and BJ Habibie, the President was there to witness IPTN’s third N-250 prototype take flight for the first time. In his speech after the plane had landed, the President hailed IPTN’s aircrafts as “visible signs” of Indonesia’s progress as a nation.

The conversation around the lunch table after the ceremony had finished, it was made known to the President that the next challenge for the N-250 was gaining FAA Certification. Said Jenie explained that the FAA had been slow but got worst after the change from the Clinton to McCain Administration. Try said that he would look into it though he said Indonesia’s relationship with the United States was not at its best at the moment.

24th August 2001:
The President went to Friday prayer and had lunch with Chairman of DPR Harmoko. The two discussed recent political happenings as well as matters of state such as legislation to be passed. The two agreed that the Manpower Bill, when it came, would be a priority given how important it was to the livelihood for many.

“In other news, I hear you’ve changed your domicile to Solo, Central Java, Mr. Chairman”, said Try, moving on to other things.

“You heard correctly, Mr. President”, replied Harmoko cheerfully “Just wanted to change it to my hometown. In 1997, I ran for a DPR seat representing West Java, this time I want to run representing Central Java.”

“I always thought you were from Nganjuk”, countered Try referring to the East Javanese town.

“Just born there, Mr. President”, said Harmoko “Always been a Solo boy.”

“But Central Java”, began Try “If I read my PKPI National Campaign briefing correctly, it’s going to be a battleground.”

“It will be”, confirmed Harmoko “Prabowo did enough when he was Governor of Central Java to create a base of support for the PKPB there, it’s Matori’s home province and he wants to win there, Megawati normally runs as a DPR member representing there, but I’m up for a fight.”

25th August 2001:
Interviewed on RRI about recent political developments, Chairman of ICMI Nurcholish Madjid was asked who ICMI would support in the next election. Nurcholish said that ICMI would not support either one of PKPI, PKPB, PNI, or PPP and gave his explanation.

“I think on an individual level, ICMI members might want to support certain political parties and might even want to be candidates but that’s a matter for them. They will of course bring with them their background as ICMI members and lobby for support from ICMI members but as an organization ICMI would not get involved. We would stay neutral”, said Nurcholish.

“What about beyond that? What about the 2003 MPR General Session”, asked the host.

“Pretty much the same”, Nurcholish began “Whoever the presidential candidates are, ICMI has to stay neutral and I’ll give you two reasons. First, we’ve progressed to a period where I don’t think we will ever again see one presidential candidate ever again. There were four presidential candidates at the 1998 MPR General Session and I’m pretty certain there will be multiple candidates in 2003. From where I sit, I believe that it is in ICMI’s interest that we are able to work together with whoever is the president in 2003 so it’s not wise if we declare we’re for this or that candidate.

Second, remember that the MPR consists of Group Delegates and Regional Delegates; MPR Delegates who are supposed to represent organizations and all walks of life and from the provinces. For ICMI as an organization to exercise the people’s sovereignty on the people’s behalf and exercise it credibly they need to have some detachment from the candidates, otherwise they’re better off joining one of the political parties. This goes for ICMI as well as these MPR delegates to be.”

27th August 2001:
At the Presidential Palace, the President swore in a batch of ambassadors which included the following:

*Lt. Gen. Kiki Syahnakri as Ambassador to Myanmar
*Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Tuswandi as Ambassador to Cambodia
*R. Adm. Freddy Numberi as Ambassador to Papua New Guinea

After the ceremony, the President and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita gathered the ambassadors though these three were singled out. The President told Kiki and Tuswandi not to let Myanmar and Cambodia fall into China’s orbit while Freddy’s instructions were to strengthen relations with Papua New Guinea and use it as a door to Oceania.


28th August 2001:
The President met with Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Governor of BI Boediono, Edi Sudrajat, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman and OCDS Sugeng Subroto.

Sumarlin emerged out of the meeting along with the ministers plus Boediono. The Vice President explained that the meeting was about the nation’s economic prospects over a longer term and more specifically how best to implement the aspirations outlined by the President in the State as far as national development planning and budgeting was concerned.

When asked if the Government was preparing an agenda for the next term, Sumarlin laughed. He only said that a) the President’s focused on this term and b)if anyone wants to lead Indonesia their vision should be longer than 18 months.

29th August 2001:
Chairman of the PKPB’s National Campaign Prabowo Subianto’s day began with a breakfast meeting with a grim-looking Tutut Soeharto. Prabowo asked her what was the problem.

“The overseas funds aren’t accessible anymore”, she said in a flat tone as she handed an envelope with a notification from an overseas bank “The bank account has been frozen.”

“Frozen?” he asked, surprised.

“It’s all there, it’s just that it can’t be transferred into the country because the bank account’s frozen”, Tutut explained, puttiing too much of an effort at a poker face “It means the money we could use for the campaign won’t be available anymore.”

There was an awkward silence.

“Should we go public with this?” asked Tutut “Make people feel insecure that the Government can freeze their savings?”

“No, that would be the wrong move”, replied Prabowo “It would feed into the narrative that this family has wealth hidden all over the world. There’s no doubt they signed some kind of an agreement with the Austrian Government, they’re a Western country with respect for the rule of law. It’s just that our Government is keeping this agreement a secret.”

“Hmmm….” said Tutut thoughtfully “What can we do?”

There was something in his sister-in-law’s face that made Prabowo want to smile though he knew he had to hide it.

“Well, Mbakyu”, began Prabowo “The President wants to fight you and he’s making sure that when he does, he’s doing it on as even a ground as possible. For Wanandi, Panigoro, Salim, Winata, Bakrie, we’re more of an even match if we don’t have access to those funds.”

Tutut fell silent. She stared at the space in front of her.

“Then let’s oblige him and give him that fight”, said Tutut.

“Understood, Mbakyu”, replied Prabowo.

30th August 2001:
The President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati paid their final respects today to ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff Agus Wirahadikusumah who died that morning of a heart attack. He was seen sitting and chatting with former Vice President Umar Wirahadikusumah who was Agus’ uncle. He was also seen talking with Commander of ABRI Wiranto and ABRI Chief of General Staff Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. On the way out, the President, with Edi Sudrajat walking beside him, had to go through questions asking who will be the new ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff. The President only said that he was there to mourn the lost of one of ABRI’s best sons.

31st August 2001:
A special guest arrived at the Presidential Palace this morning. Accompanied by his son, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Liem Sioe Liong met with the President who was accompanied by Edi Sudrajat. The old man and the President exchanged pleasantries and then got down to business.

“I ask for your permission to leave the country, Mr. President”, he said “I’ll just be in Singapore of course, but I just want to sit on the sidelines as you, Tutut, and your supporters clash with each other.”

“I understand, you have that permission, Om Liem”, said Try.

“I don’t begrudge the fact that you and Anthony are on one side while Tutut is on another, perhaps different generations have different ways of doing things”, Liem said again “But President Soeharto was my friend and I must respect the long-relationship that I had with him; though I support your Government, I must distance myself when it comes to the conflict that you are in with Tutut.”

“I understand”, said Try.

The two exchanged pleasantries before a picture was taken and then it was time for Liem to leave.

“You were always in awe of President Soeharto”, Liem said to the President “As his Aide-de-Camp, as Army Chief of Staff, as Commander of ABRI, as Vice President, that awe was always there.”

Try chuckled to himself.

“And now to sit in his chair and have his daughter be your political opponent”, said Liem “I can’t imagine how that must feel.”

“Guilty", replied Try quickly with a sad expression on his face "I feel guilty that she's my political opponent and that I have to fight against her. I feel guilty about it on account of who her father is."

Then Try’s face hardened.

“Alas, such is the circumstances that she and I has found ourselves in”, said Try “It's all too late stop us from a collision."

---
Everyone’s getting into an election mood.

Agus Wirahadikusumah is a much more tame figure than his OTL self. In OTL he was an advocate of what was then (Wahid presidency) considered radical reform such as no more TNI members sitting in the DPR. His handiwork will make an appearance, albeit posthumously. OTL he died of a heart attack and given his radical change reputation, people speculated about the nature of it. Here I had him died on the basis of this account which suggests that there was an oxygen tank around his house on account of ean earlier condition.

On a sidenote, the other prominent political death from this time, Baharuddin Lopa, has not occurred. OTL he died from a heart attack brought about exhaustion (though once again there’s speculation about the nature of his death because he was so incorruptible). ITTL Lopa is currently an Inspector General of Development, one of five officials in charge of supervising whether or not Government programs are implemented correctly.

Anthony Salim’s support for Try ITTL is based on his OTL self lobbying for Try to be re-elected vice president in 1998 https://books.google.co.id/books?id=GnKZBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA398&dq=anthony+salim+retain+try+sutrisno&hl=id&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjJkOv6nqzuAhVMqksFHW8EAwIQ6AEwAHoECAYQAg#v=onepage&q=anthony salim retain try sutrisno&f=false

For comparison’s sake, OTL Try and OTL Tutut still maintain good relations with each other. To the point where Try acted as witness when Tutut’s youngest son got married in 2020 https://kumparan.com/kumparanhits/m...rnikahan-danny-rukmana-dan-raiyah-1sqMnSunjMb. Based on that, what I wanted to convey here is that it's very uncomfortable for him to have Tutut as his rival.

 

[GSD310]

1st September 2001:
Holding a luncheon at the Presidential Palace, President Try Sutrisno accompanied by State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari and Chairman of KONI IGK Manila hosted Indonesia’s SEA Games 2001 Contingent which will be departing for Kuala Lumpur that day. He wished them luck and called on them to make the nation proud.

2nd September 2001:
All of the members of the Pancasila Coalition came to Bogor Presidential Palace this Sunday morning. Chairman of DPR Harmoko, former Chairman of Golkar Wahono, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, BJ Habibie, Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid, Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais, Chairman of PKPI Basofi Sudirman, and Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil. After a lunch, they sat around a table with President Try Sutrisno who was accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. The following were discussed:

*Basofi and Matori reported that the PKPI and PPP’s respective preparations to submit a list of DPR candidates to the KPU have reached its advanced stage. All agreed that there was no need to share the list of candidates to maintain confidentiality.

*On the 2002 Legislative Elections itself, there was an agreement that the PKPI and PPP should compete freely against each other. Wahono chimed that competing freely against each other does not mean campaigning and badmouthing one another. The President agreed and asked Basofi and Matori to sign an agreement to this effect with each other.

*Abdurrahman Wahid and Amien Rais said that as there are NU and Muhammadiyah members in both PKPI and PPP, they will direct followers to vote for one of the two parties as they see fit.

*The situation got tense when Harmoko asked two questions. First he asked whether or not the PKPI and PPP would still be in a coalition after the election. Matori said that it would because the PPP’s committed to supporting the President until the end of his term in March 2003. Harmoko then innocently suggested that the PKPI and PPP jointly nominate a chairman of the DPR/MPR for the next term of the DPR/MPR. Matori tensed at that, the mumbling that since the coaition’s support was for the President, it wouldn’t matter who the Chairman of the DPR/MPR would be next term. The situation only calmed down when Wahid said to let events play themselves out and saying that who the next Chairman of the DPR/MPR would be will be clearer after the 2002 Legislative Elections.

On that note the meeting ended. When all the coalition members fronted the media, Harmoko was once again the spokesman cheerfully saying that the Pancasila Coalition remained strong and united. In his office, with the television in the background, the President had his private meeting with Harsudiono.

“I think Harmoko just realized he’s not alone in his ambitions for the chairmanship of the DPR/MPR”, said Edi with a chuckle.

“And there’s still the candidates for the chairmanship from the PKPB and PNI”, began Harsudiono “Though somehow I think the chairwomen of the PKPB and PNI are interested in something greater than being Chairman of the DPR/MPR.”

“Yeah, yeah, I know”, said Try holding up a folder “In the mean time, you two should stick around. Basofi’s got some homework for me.”

“What’s that?” asked Edi.

“It’s the list of DPR candidates the PKPI wants to submit to the KPU”, said Try “I’m the party leader so I have to review it.”

3rd September 2001:
The Presidential Airplane touched down at Manado, North Sulawesi in the morning. After being welcomed by Governor of North Sulawesi EE Mangindaan, the President jumped in a car. Some 90 minutes later they arrived at Lahendong.

Here, accompanied by Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi and Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Minister of Religion Quraish Shihab, Edi Sudrajat, and Mangindaan the President inaugurated the following:

*Units 1 and 2 of the Lahendong Geothermal Electricity Generator
*The North Sulawesi Transmission Line and Sub-Station
*The Sam Ratulangi International Airport in Manado
*The Ekayana Buddhist Pagoda in Tomohon

In his speech, the President congratulated the people of North Sulawesi on their determination to “make their mark” on national development. After a short ceremony, the President toured the facilities shaking hands with the employees there and learning about how the electricity generator was to work.

From there, the President and his entourage headed for Bitung. The State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones Jusuf Kalla acted as the tour guide here. Kalla explained that the two major infrastructure projects underway here are the Manado-Bitung Toll Road and the expansion of Bitung Harbour. It was quite late in the day when the President returned to Manado and that was where he spent the night.

4th September 2001:
Try and his entourage flew early in the morning and landed in Bengkulu, Bengkulu where they were welcomed by Governor of Bengkulu Afifuddin Thaib. Together the President toured the parts of Bengkulu which had been damaged by an earthquake which had occurred 15 months prior but which had been rehabilitated by the Government. Accompanied by Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta, State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno and Head of BNPB Yusman Yutam, the President toured houses and schools which were previously torn down but which had been reconstructed by the government. Giri Suseno reported that the opportunity for rehabilitation has been used to build new footpaths in Bengkulu.

There were faint “Mega! Mega!” chants from people that officials successfully prevented from getting close to the President though the President himself was more struck by how familiar Meutia was with the locals, some of whom she was referring to by name. When the President talked to locals they all said that all was thanks to Meutia’s hard work. The President experienced déjà vu because this was exactly the reaction to Meutia last year when he visited Bengkulu.

Walking beside the President, Thaib said that people in Bengkulu were most touched that Meutia spent some months living in Bengkulu in a budget hotel and that even when things were already under control, Meutia would still visit Bengkulu and Enggano Island when her ministerial duties took her to Sumatra. Yutam said that Meutia was a respected leader by Government Departments and Agencies working on the disaster and its aftermath.

Making some remarks, the President said that the Government had successfully handled the reconstruction effort in Bengkulu and that this “was all due to the leadership provided by the Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta”. A loud cheer greeted the mention of her name both from officials and the public alike.

Filled with overwhelming endorsements for Meutia, the President returned to Jakarta.

5th September 2001:
At a lunch hosted by Chairman of the Indonesian Wood Panel Association (APKINDO) Bob Hasan, Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto spoke out about the plight of forest concession holders. Tutut said that forest concession holders produce exports that add to the nation’s foreign currency but are treated shabbily by the government. She made mention that 13 forest concessions covering 1.36 million hectares expired in March 2000 but the extension process has stalled. Tutut asks whether this was how the government intends to provide good service to domestic investors.

The President and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo had a meeting. The latter briefed the President that there is little to no intelligence chatter inside the country as far as possible threats to Indonesia were concerned but that whatever chatter there was pointed once again to something about to occur overseas probably involving airplanes. Try said that he’ll get the Department of Transportation to draw something up about airline security but other than he’s not sure what he could do.

“It’s not that I’m not taking it seriously”, said Try “It’s just that I can’t imagine this flying under the White House’s radar.”

6th September 2001:
ABRI Headquarters issued a statement saying that Commander of ABRI Wiranto had received approval from the President for a command shuffle brought about by Agus Wirahadikusumah’s death. The shuffle included the following highlights:

*Lt. Gen. Djamari Chaniago is appointed to the ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs’ Staff position left vacant by Agus Wirahadikusumah.

*Lt. Gen. Endriartono Sutarto, currently Inspector General of ABRI, is appointed Deputy Army Chief of Staff.

*Maj. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu is promoted from ABRI Assistant of Planning to Inspector General of ABRI position left by Endriartono. He is promoted to lieutenant general. Maj. Gen. Romulo Simbolon, previously Assistant of Socio-Political Affairs succeeds him.

*Brig. Gen. Iwan Sulandjana, currently second-in-command at the East Java Regional Military Command is appointed Commander of the West Java Regional Military Command and promoted to major general. He is a classmate of Commander of Kostrad TB Hasanuddin.

*From a political standpoint, Wiranto strengthens his position by having a close ally (Djamari) appointed to the ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs’ Staff position and another associate (Romulo Simbolon) in the Assistant of Planning’s position.

*ABRI Chief of General Staff Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains unaffected but there is agreement within his circle that his 1973 Classmates fared badly. Placed in staff positions in ABRI Headquarters and/or dead-end assignments, there is a sense that “the decks are being cleared for those who will come after us”.

*The Class of 1974 fared the best. The regional military commands of West Java, Central Java, and East Java along with Kostrad and Kopassus now belong to this class. Staff positions in the Army Headquarters are now largely manned by the Class of 1974. This is in part to strengthen the hands of Ryamizard Ryacudu and TB Hasanuddin, who are seen to be the President’s favorites, but also to counter the Prabowo Subianto’s lingering influence, Prabowo being a member of the Class of 1974.

*The pairing of Luhut Panjaitan and Endriartono Sutarto as Army Chief of Staff and Deputy Army Chief of Staff also means the top two positions in the Army are held by those hostile to Prabowo.

*The promotion of Ryamizard Ryacudu to lieutenant general officially places the President’s son-in-law as a contender for the Army Chief of Staff’s position when Luhut hits retirement age. Luhut has been Army Chief of Staff since August 2000 and will hit retirement age in September 2002.

7th September 2001:
The President had a meeting with Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar, Meutia Hatta and Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman. The President approved of an MoU signed by the three ministers mandating that apartment buildings, shopping centers, and office buildings have facilities to make it accessible to less mobile visitors such as the elderly and the handicapped (wheelchair ramps, toilets for the wheelchair). Bobby reported that newer buildings will have these facilities available but that older buildings will be given time to transition with the new policy.

After the three ministers made the announcement of their meeting, Meutia was asked by Edi Sudrajat to come back to the President’s office because he would like to meet privately. The President praised Meutia about what great work she was doing at Bengkulu before asking her if she would like to run for a DPR seat in Bengkulu before the election. Meutia smiled when Try made this offer.

“Mr. President, I think you want to deploy me against Mbak Mega”, said Meutia making Try smirk “I think I’ve visited Bengkulu enough to know that Mbak Mega PNI is popular there. Must be the fact that Mrs. Fatmawati is from there.”

Try said that he just wanted the PKPI to have a better chance of winning in Bengkulu. Meutia says that she’s willing to be placed wherever duty calls but asks whether it was better for the Government if she were to remain minister.

“It would be good for the Government for the next 18 months but now we need to start laying the foundations for the next 5 years”, said Try “That starts with how well the PKPI does in the 2002 Elections.”

Meutia nodded her head and thought about it carefully.

“I will accept, Mr. President but only on one condition”, she began “President Soeharto made in a habit to have his ministers registered as DPR candidates so they could campaign and attract votes for Golkar but then when Golkar does well, these ministers remained in their positions instead of taking up their DPR seats. I would like to ask your permission that if all turned out well that I would be allowed to take up my seat in the DPR.”

“Done”, said Try.

10th September 2001:
In a morning press conference at the PKPI’s National Headquarters, Basofi Sudirman and Secretary of PKPI Joyokusumo said that the President, in his capacity as party leader, has given approval to the PKPI’s list of DPR candidates to be submitted to the KPU. Basofi said that they will hand the list of candidates on the 15th September along with the other parties.

Elsewhere, at the Presidential Palace, President Try welcomed the arrival of General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) Nong Duc Manh. As per the President’s instructions, although “merely” a party leader, he was given a welcome equal to that of a head of state. Manh indeed came with a small delegation comprising of only staffers though being party leader in a one-party state made him the most powerful man in Vietnam. Try invited just Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita to sit in the meetings to keep his delegation small.

When they began their talks, Try and Manh immediately agreed on the big issues. Manh said that China’s attempt to intervene with the VCP National Congress is a sign that China has “designs” on the Southeast Asian region. He told Try that even though Vietnam and China had a common ideology, Vietnam always suspected China’s intentions towards it. Try agreed and said that not only Vietnam, but the rest of Southeast Asia should be free of Chinese and other political influence by “non-ASEAN powers”. Try explained his concept of ASEAN member nations acting collectively in foreign affairs so as to maintain an independent position but that this is contingent on ASEAN member nations not being influenced by “non-ASEAN powers”. Manh agreed that if ASEAN members came under the influence of “non-ASEAN powers” that this was the same as giving them a veto on ASEAN’s agenda.

Moving on to another topic, Manh said that the Russians have a 25-year lease on Cam Ranh Naval Base which is scheduled to run out in 2004. It was the desire of Vietnam that the lease not be continued, argued Manh, so that it can maintain an independent position on foreign affairs without Russian presence within its borders. Try supported this and saying that other ASEAN nations should support Vietnam’s position, said that Vietnam should bring up the matter at the next ASEAN Summit.

At their press conference, the two nations were effusive of one another. Try congratulated Manh on his election as general secretary calling it a victory against “those trying to intervene in the internal affairs of a nation”. Manh was equally effusive saying that Indonesia was a nation that has the strength to be decisive in the region.

11th September 2001:
Nong Duc Manh held talks first with Vice President JB Sumarlin and then with Chairman of DPR Harmoko. Manh, who was formerly Chairman of Vietnam’s National Assembly, was enthusiastic to meet Harmoko again.

At their joint press conference, Harmoko dealt with questions about rumors that he will be running for re-election to the DPR in Central Java. Harmoko said he would not pre-empt the party only that he wanted to bring victory to the PKPI at the next elections.

In mid-afternoon, Manh paid his respects the tombs of the Seven Revolutionary Heroes who were murdered during the 30th September Movement Coup Attempt at the Kalibata Heroes Cemetery. Accompanied by Wiranto, Manh said delivered a speech saying Vietnam and Indonesia’s relationship transcended ideology.

That night the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati hosted a private dinner for Manh and Mrs. Manh at the Presidential Palace.

After dinner, the First Lady gave a tour around the Presidential Palace to Mrs. Manh. The President, Manh, and their interpreters walked further behind and continued their discussion while the ladies chatted about the palace. Manh told Try that he thought they have “broad agreement” on the strategic issues. They both agreed that further visits should be exchanged to “hammer out the details” with Manh officially inviting Try to visit Vietnam.

It was around 8.30 PM when Manh and Mrs. Manh departed back to their hotel, Try saying that he would call on them at the hotel in the morning to have breakfast together before Manh departed back to Hanoi.

Back at his office, the President met with Ginandjar, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, and Edi to review the visit. Soerjadi said Manh hit all the right notes and that there’s enough common agreement between Indonesia and Vietnam on the big issues to say that this was a success as an initial visit though obviously there was still much to build upon if Indonesia wanted a relationship on the level of Thailand and the Philippines.

Try was telling Edi to identify areas where there could still be closer cooperation between the two nations when Ginandjar excused himself to take a call on his phone. Edi was saying defense and economics would be a good place to start when Ginandjar stepped back in looking like he’s struggling to process what he just heard.

“Everything okay?” asked Try.

“That was Ambassador Nana” Ginandjar said referring to Ambassador to the United States Nana Sutresna “He’s saying that an airplane just crashed into the World Trade Center in New York.”

“What?!When?” asked Edi.

“Nearly 15 minutes ago”, said Ginandjar.

Try also struggled to process it as Ginandjar stepped outside again. He struggled because there is a possibility that this was…it can’t be…

The television in the room was switched on and changed to CNN and there were gasps in the room. Black smoke rose out of one of the World Trade Center towers which looked like something had crashed into it.

Around Try things were moving. Soerjadi’s phone also rang and he left the room to take it. Then Edi’s phone rang. The State Secretary answered it and handed it to Try.

“The Chief of BAKIN for you, Mr. President”, said Edi.

Try had hoped it was the Minister of Transportation wanting to report of a freak aviation accident in New York. But this was the Chief of BAKIN and that could only mean one thing.

“Don’t tell me those are the guys taking the flying lessons ”, began Try.

“We don’t know who exactly flew that aircraft, how many they’ve hijacked, and what else they’re going to do, Mr. President”, said Ari “But this is it, this is them.”

“I see”, said Try “Come here as quickly as you can.”

“I’m already on my way there, Mr. President”, said Ari.

Try handed the phone to Edi. He massaged his forehead and then began giving instructions.

“I want you to summon the Vice President, the Minister of Home Affairs, the Minister of Defense and Security, the Minister of…” said Try but then he trailed off when he saw what was on the television screen “Wait a minute…that’s…my God, that airplane just hit the other tower!”

---
So Try is in the midst of doing something that Soeharto used to do with Golkar in the run-up to an election, namely review the list of candidates and give his approval/disapproval when and as necessary.

The number of 1.36 million hectares of forest concessions with extension process which has stalled is based on https://jawawa.id/newsitem/government-revokes-vast-forest-concessions-1447893297

I forgot where I read it but the reason why communist leaders always double on a party and government position (Ie. Stalin was Premier of the USSR at one stage) is so that they can travel overseas and receive a welcome as a state official instead of merely being a party official. This is what I wanted to convey when I said that Try wanted Manh to be given a welcome equal to that of a Head of State.

And yes, we’re finally at that world changing event, folks.

 

[GSD310]

11th September 2001:
It was later said that State Secretary Edi Sudrajat proved his worth in his position that night. He got President Try to keep the focus on Indonesia and let “McCain focus on what’s going on over there”. Turning off the television in the President’s office, Edi got the President to think about what steps to take and to get him to begin issuing instructions. Amazingly, Edi told the President to keep the TV off and take a power nap because “you’ll be here all night”.

The President was awoken by his aide-de-camp Col. Budiman who said that the officials are ready. Budiman told the President that he slept for 20 minutes but in that 20 minutes things were still happening. As he stepped into the meeting room, the President briefly saw that a third hijacked airplane had just crashed into Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois.

Around the room were Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Minister of Religion Quraish Shihab, State Minister of Security Soerjadi, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, and Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro. Looking at the President with a look that said he hated the fact that he got his analysis right was Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo.

The men in uniform were Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan, Navy Chief of Staff Indroko Sastrowiryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe, Chief of Police Yun Mulyana and Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma.

The first to speak was Ari Sudewo. He gave a briefing to all in the room about who Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda were. Try listened carefully. He had only known of the man and the organization because intelligence briefings on Jemaah Islamiyah touched on them but it was only then that he got a full-fledged briefing.

Then Wiranto spoke saying that he’s ordered ABRI on increased general alertness. Kostrad and the Regional Jakarta Military Command will be beefing up security in major cities. Try approved but then added that security should be increased in airports, ports, and train stations across the country. Turning to Soerjadi Soedirja, Try said in the meantime standard operating procedures for those embarking on flights, ships, and trains, what can or can’t be brought on board, should be reviewed for potential security gaps.

On the information front, Oka Mahendra reported on how the attacks are being covered on television and radio, the President ordered Oka Mahendra to enact a ruling saying that all free-to-air live coverage of the terrorist attacks in New York must be relayed from TVRI’s broadcast. TVRI’s broadcast of the attack itself must maintain a neutral tone that avoids sensationalizing or cause interpretations and speculation that could incite emotions. Oka Mahendra added that the newspapers will need to adopt a similar tone too and Try immediately gave his approval. After getting his instructions, Oka Mahendra immediately left the meeting room.

Try’s final instructions were to Sumarlin, Ginandjar, Quraish, Soerjadi, and Edi which to were to gauge how the world is reacting to this and what’s the potential fall-out for Indonesia, politically, economically, and socially. He also asked for a statement to be made that he can read to the nation.

12th September 2001:
President Try made his statement after 1 AM. By this time President of the United States John McCain, attending a small business event in California to promote his tax cuts, had issued quick statement saying that the United States was under attack before flying back to Washington DC.

Sounding somber, the President announced that there had been terrorist attacks on the two World Trade Center towers in New York City (both of which had collapsed by now), the Sears tower in Chicago, Illinois (which had also collapsed) and the Pentagon in Washington DC. There had also been an aircraft which crashed over Pennsylvania.

He called on the Indonesian people to give their prayers for the victims and condemnation for the perpretrators in “the strongest terms”. Then Try paused and feeling that what was on paper did not go far enough to his liking, went off-script.

“…But let it be said that it is my intention that the Government’s words of condemnations are matched by deeds. Because if we condemn with our words only and not with our deeds, our condemnation will be baseless.”

The President ended his statement by holding up his hands and reciting the Al-Fatiha.

After General Secretary of the VCP Nong Duc Manh made a courtesy call at 3 AM to say that he was going back to Vietnam earlier than expected, the President got some rest.

That morning, Indonesia, much as the rest of the world began processing what was becoming known as 9/11. Oka Mahendra’s intervention had been successful and the media adopted a careful approach when reporting the event; largely sticking to facts and calling for experts and opinion piece writers to adopt caution when asserting their opinion. Condemnations from all walks of society, including by Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto and Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri, filled pages and airtime.

Not all were keen to go along with this mood. At North Jakarta’s Tanjung Priok area, authorities took down banners with the writing “What About Saying The Al-Fatiha For Victims Of The Tanjung Priok Massacre?” 12th Today being the anniversary of the Tanjung Priok Incident and the commander in charge of the Tanjung Priok Incident now residing. Commander of the Jakarta Regional Military Command Prijanto increased surveillance in this area.

The President began the day watching McCain address the United States from the Oval Office on television, seeing coverage of the terrorist attacks on the nation’s newspapers, and meeting with Ginandjar. Ginandjar reported that the word was that the United States had already identified Afghanistan’s Taliban regime as “harboring” Osama Bin Laden and are preparing for the use of military force there.

After lunch, the President had a three-way conference call with Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra (Accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Surakiart Sathirathai) and President of Philippines Joseph Estrada (Accompanied by Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo Siazon). They first discussed Manh’s visit to Jakarta. Thaksin and Estrada agreed that Vietnam would be a great addition to the bloc. Thaksin said the bloc could easily be cast as pro-United States with the presence of Thailand and the Philippines. Then they discussed the topic of the moment, exchanging information about the security measures that they were taking as well as what the United States were planning to do.

“President Try, I think eventually President McCain will to turn to you for help for what he’s about to do”, said Estrada.

“I’m not sure about that, Mr. President”, said Try “Our relationship with the US isn’t the worst but it’s not the best either, they see us as a nuisance for speaking against the IMF imposing uniform solution on countries.”

Estrada smiled and permitted Siazon to speak. Siazon said that the State Department’s been giving feelers and “unofficial communication” to the Filipino Department of Foreign Affairs essentially asking what would Indonesia’s likely stance be if the United States invaded Afghanistan. Try asked Estrada what was the Filipino Government’s response to that.

“I said that the Philippines wouldn’t have a clue what the Indonesian stance on a US invasion of Afghanistan would be”, replied Estrada “Only that if the US wants to engage in what it was about to do, it damn well better have Indonesia’s support or at least benevolent neutrality. I told them I felt more secure going after Islamic separatists and insurgents in my country with Indonesia’s support because nobody can accuse me of being anti-Islam when the world’s largest Muslim population is on my side.”

13th September 2001:
The President made a surprise appearance at Soekarno-Hatta Airport. Accompanied by Soerjadi Soedirja, Edi Sudrajat, Wiranto, and Deputy Commander of ABRI Chappy Hakim, the President inspected the increased security at the airport; Chappy Hakim having been placed in charge of liasing between ABRI and the Department of Transportation on transport security. Speaking to a group of airport officials, the President said that airports, ports, and railway stations now have to make sure that people can’t bring anything dangerous on board an aircraft, ships, and trains.

Arriving back at the Presidential Palace, the President took a phone call from Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Vajpayee said that he had just finished lobbying the White House not to pressure President/Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf to take the United States’ side against Afghanistan because India has credible intelligence that Musharraf runs of the risk of being overthrown by the Pakistani Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence. Vajpayee said he did not want to take the risk of Musharraf being replaced by someone less predictable and friendly, bearing in mind the advice Try gave him in June.

To Try’s relief, Vajpayee said that the United States had backed down and are thinking of other options. But he was surprised when Vajpayee said that Try’s name “came up a lot in discussions”. Try asked what Vajpayee meant by that.

“Musharraf fancies himself a modernizer who hails from the military, he watched your speech, wanted to emulate it, and had the White House made an official approach, he would’ve accepted it but that would also have been the end of his rule”, said Vajpayee “Those Pakistani Army officers, they fell behind Musharraf in 1999 on account of his stance towards India. But do you know, Mr. President, what they worry about when it comes to Musharraf?”

“What do they say, Mr. Prime Minister?” asked Try, remembering the cold reception from the Pakistani officer corps when he visited Pakistan just a few months prior in June.

“They say they don’t want Musharraf to be another “Try””, said Vajpayee “They want to keep their diplomatic relationship with the Taliban. They want nothing similar to the stance that you have taken towards extremists in your country. ”

Much as Estrada, Vajpayee said that the United States will turn to Indonesia for assistance.

“We can’t help them much”, said Try “They want Pakistan on board because it’s right next door to Afghanistan. What can we do to help?”

“McCain wants to invade Afghanistan and turn the country inside out to find Bin Laden”, said Vajpayee “McCain already has UK's Blair, Canada's Martin on board; he's also invoked NATO too. The United States probably has just cause in this but there’s going to be people who will want to characterize what the United States is doing as anti-Islamic and…”

“And it would be good for them for to have the nation with the largest Islamic population on their side?” asked Try.

“Ah so you already understand the situation”, said Vajpayee “And anyway, someone’s already making that argument in the Administration. Wolfowitz…he used to be Ambassador in Indonesia, right? Wolfowitz is not interested in Pakistan being on their side, he’s interested in Indonesia.”

14th September 2001:
Friday prayer saw the President praying at Istiqlal Mosque. Sitting in the front row with Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama Abdurrahman Wahid, Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais, Chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) Ali Yafie, and Chairman of ICMI Nurcholish Madjid.

Across the street at Jakarta’s Cathedral, Archbishop of Jakarta Julius Darmaatmadja led a requiem mass for the souls of the 9/11 victims. Sitting in the front row at mass was JB Sumarlin.

Back at the Presidential Palace, the President received a briefing on the latest international developments from Ginandjar. Ginandjar said that initial sympathy has shifted to a reluctance to give unqualified support for the United States’ intention to invade Afghanistan. President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov and President of China Jiang Zemin, while still expressing strong words of sympathies for the attack were reluctant to let the United States anywhere near their airspaces.

15th September 2001:
The national spotlight shone once again on domestic issues as one-by-one all four political parties visited the KPU Building to submit their lists of DPR candidates. To avoid scenes during the registration of the political parties which saw projectiles thrown at Tutut Soeharto and Harmoko from opposing masses, only the chairmen and secretaries of the political parties are permitted to register with the KPU.

The first to arrive were Tutut Soeharto and Secretary of the PKPB ZA Maulani. Emerging out of the KPU building, Tutut said that the PKPB has plenty of good candidates ready to contest the election. On the measures the Government has taken thus far, Tutut says that she agrees in principle but cautions that the Government’s actions may cause distress among the majority faith in Indonesia.

The second to arrive were Chairman of PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Secretary of PKPI Joyokusumo. After registering the DPR candidate, Basofi said that the PKPI stood by the Government’s policies to strengthen security and stated that the PKPI’s goals in the election is to ensure that as many of its members are elected to the DPR so that they can support the re-election of President Try Sutrisno.

The third to arrive were Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Secretary of PPP Bachtiar Chamsyah. They were reluctant to answer much questions and denied that the PPP is divided. Matori said of all the political parties, the PPP is the only one that has survived the previous political party system. He said that whatever “internal dynamics”, the one thing keeping the PPP together is that with Golkar gone, this is the PPP’s best chance to gain a good result.

Finally, there were Megawati Soekarnoputri and Secretary of the PNI Sutjipto. When Megawati came out she only said that whatever stance the President took on terrorism it will be based on Indonesia’s national interest not the United States’.

16th September 2001:
It was a Sunday morning that was disrupted by work. On three different occasions during the day, Ginandjar Kartasasmita accompanied by the Department of Foreign Affairs’ Director General of Politics Hasan Wirayuda reported to the President bringing cables from the United States State Department. Each time, the President accompanied by Edi Sudrajat and Soerjadi, sat down to formulate the response to such questions.

The first State Department Cable asked what would be the Indonesian Government’s stance if the United States were to invade Afghanistan. The response of the Indonesian Government was that it would not get in the way but that it would not influence others to get in the way or support the United States.

The second cable welcomed Indonesia’s response and asked, “hypothetically”, if it would be possible for Indonesia to declare open support for the United States’ War on Terror and whether Indonesia was in a position to declare such support.

“Who’s sending the cables from their end?” asked Try when he read the second cable.

“Our understanding is that it’s Assistant Secretary of State Wolfowitz, Mr. President”, replied Ginandjar “We think it’s a diplomatic feeler but coming from as high a level as that, it would’ve had approval from the level of Secretary of State and above.”

While Try, Ginandjar, Edi, Soerjadi, and Hasan debated about the wording of Indonesia’s response, The US Embassy in Jakarta called Ginandjar to ask if he had received “the second message” from Washington yet. Ginandjar assured the US Embassy that it has been received and on the President’s desk.

“Well we are taking longer with this response than with the previous cable”, said Edi.

“We are, but them being pushy about it shows that this is very urgent for them”, said Ginandjar “They need help but they can’t pressure Pakistan, China and Russia are not being helpful, the Gulf States are cooperative in freezing terrorist bank accounts but don’t want to seem too enthusiastic about supporting military action. They shot themselves in the foot in that region by posturing about wanting to remove Saddam whether militarily or otherwise.”

They looked at Try who was thinking deeply.

“Our support will depend on what we will get for it”, said Try “Write that in the most diplomatic language possible.”

Not long thereafter the Indonesian Government sent a cable back. It said that “whether or not it is possible for Indonesia to declare open support or whether or not Indonesia was in a position to declare such support will depend on agreement by the two governments about certain issues that need addressing between the two nations.”

The reply was quick. The next cable asked whether the President of Indonesia would like to discuss these vital issues directly with the President of the United States “at the earliest possible opportunity”. Ginandjar immediately said that the President should accept the offer and come to the United States within the week. Edi frowned at that.

“We’ve established what we want, they’ve established what they want, let’s leave it at that”, said Edi “Let’s leave the flying around the world and rushing to be at Washington for someone like.”

“The State Secretary’s right”, said Try “I will end up meeting him at APEC in a month’s time in Shanghai. No need for me to rush.”

Ginandjar, Soerjadi, and Hasan left the room not long thereafter with a message to the US Government saying that the President would need to tend to the domestic situation for the moment and that they will eventually discuss what needs to be discussed at APEC.

“Why wouldn’t it be a good idea to fly to Washington as soon as we possibly can?” asked Try when Edi returned.

“It wouldn’t look good to the country if you seemed desperate to get over there and I can assure you Tutut and Megawati will only be too happy to point that out to the people, that’s first”, said Edi “Second, it wouldn’t look good for them if you seem desperate to get over there. They’re going to feel like they can buy your support. We can’t have that. They’re the ones that need our help not the other way around. They need us so they don’t look anti-Islamic to the rest of the world so let’s play hard to get just for a little bit, Mr. President.”

“And third?” asked Try, sensing that Edi’s not finished.

“You’re going to ask for some pretty big things from McCain if he wants our support, Mr. President”, said Edi “How are you going to look rushing over to Washington and then coming back empty?”

“How do you know what I’m going to ask for? I haven’t even said it”, said Try.

“I’m your State Secretary, I wouldn’t be doing a good job if I didn’t know what you’re thinking”, replied Edi “And right now I know you’re going to ask McCain to get Freeport to divest the shares it has in its Irian Jaya mines if he wants to get our support.”

---
So Indonesia being more vigilant against radicals and extremists leads to Al Qaeda thinking twice about launching an attack through its associates in Indonesia which leads to diverting enough funding for another pilot to be trained, another set of heavies to be recruited, and for another target to be attacked on 11th September, in this instance the Sears Tower in Chicago.

If you refer to the around the world updates, McCain was initially flexing his muscles in Iraq’s direction as part of Rogue State Rollback. I would say there is less sympathy towards the US after 9/11 as a result of that.

In case you haven’t noticed, ITTL Musharraf has a man-crush on Try and the Pakistani officer corps doesn’t really like that. Please refer to Update 130 for Try’s visit to Pakistan.

The Secretary of State refers to the US Secretary of State which is equivalent to a minister of foreign affairs. The State Secretary refers to the Indonesian official whose responsibility is equivalent to that to the White House Chief of Staff.

 

[GSD310]

17th September 2001:
President Try Sutrisno chaired a full cabinet meeting attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin and all the cabinet ministers. The following items that were discussed:

*The first item was the situation in Indonesia a week on after 9/11. State Secretary Edi Sudrajat updated the cabinet on the steps taken to bolster security in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in New York, Chicago, and Washington. Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo and Minister of Trade Anthony Salim reported that economic activity have gone on as normal in Indonesia. Minister of Tourism Soeyono reported that in addition to the continuing US recession, American tourists are feeling insecure about flying overseas and are cancelling holidays in Indonesia. The President said that something is in the works if people feel there is reason to be insecure about Indonesia.

*Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad reported about their trip to Washington to meet with the CGI last week. Aside from their tale of seeing smoke rising from Pentagon, Dorodjatun and Mar’ie reported about the aid pledged to Indonesia by the CGI. They also spoke about their meeting with United States Secretary of Treasury Phil Gramm who said that there might be economic incentives if Indonesia showed support for the United States in the “War on Terror”. The President noted this report, especially the last part.

*Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas reported about election preparations. The entire DPR candidates list from all four parties has been submitted. The candidates will be screened by the KPU in cooperation with BAKIN and a provisional candidates’ list will be published on 1st December 2001. Harsudiono said that there will be a drawing of numbers for the political parties on 1st December 2001. The President said that he would allow ministers to campaign but that their main focus should be their work.

18th September 2001:
DPR Member Hamzah Haz (PPP) said in an interview on SCTV’s Liputan 6 News Program that the events that occurred last week would cleanse the United States’ soul.

The President and JB Sumarlin had a meeting with Chairman of DPR Harmoko (PKPI) and Vice Chairmen of DPR RS Museno (PKPI), Hari Sabarno (ABRI), Theo Sambuaga (PKPB), and Ali Hardi Kiai Demak (PPP). Coming out of it, Harmoko said the DPR supported the Government in the steps that it has taken.

19th September 2001:
Mar’ie Muhammad and Siswono Yudohusodo announced that the President had revoked Presidential Decision 38/1997 regarding Tax Facilities For Certain Industries. Mar’ie said that the decision gives tax holidays to six enterprises (four domestic, two foreign) deemed to be pioneer industries from the enactment of the decision. However, the government already have existing tax holiday provisions for domestic enterprises which had been enacted for the last 18 months and the foreign enterprises already have tax holiday provisions granted to them under the Foreign Investment Law of 1967. Thus there was no need to give special treatment to these enterprises.

Siswono shook his head when asked if there were political considerations involved with the revocation of these tax holidays. He pointed out the consideration was equal opportunity in Indonesia’s industrial development, if there are existing tax holiday policies there is no need for special treatment. As to the timing of the revocation, Siswono said that the government wanted the tax holidays when the economy had recovered in acknowledgement of the importance of these industries to the economy.

It was noted by the politically observant that the four domestic enterprises losing their tax holidays were Bob Hasan’s PT Kiani Kertas, Hashim Djojohadikusumo’s olefin plant, and Marimutu Sinivasan’s polyester manufacturing and textile industry machinery plants. All three, especially the first two, are considered close cronies of President Soeharto.

20th September 2001:
In a press conference, Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil distanced himself from the comments made two days prior by Hamzah Haz saying that it was not representative of the PPP’s stance. Saying whether Hamzah would lose his position as Chairman of the PPP’s National Campaign, Matori said that Hamzah would remain in his position.

State Minister of National Security Soerjadi announced that the President has approved of the formation of an Anti-Terror Taskforce (Satgas Anti-Teror). This taskforce will be headed by himself and brings together representatives from various agencies but most notably ABRI and BAKIN.

21st September 2001:
The President spent his morning watching President of United States John McCain make his address to congress. McCain unveiled what he called is a War on Terror on Al Qaeda; casting Al Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden as people who wanted to destroy what the United States stood for. McCain also demanded that the Taliban hand over Al Qaeda members in the country; an ultimatum before a military strike that was sure to come.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita issued a statement on behalf of the Indonesian Government not long after the address. Ginandjar said the President responded most positively to McCain’s statement that Islam was a religion of peace and that the terrorists had “blasphemed” against Allah for what they did 10 days prior.

Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto attending a PKPB National Campaign Meeting in Puncak, West Java said that whilst she agrees in principle to the President taking security measures to strengthen the nation’s capacity to face terrorism but thinks that it is a bad move to make the majority of Indonesia’s citizens feel distressed on account of religion.

“Is she really going to seriously make an issue of that?” asked Edi Sudrajat watching this on television.

“Have to keep the Masyumi and Jemaah Tarbiyah bunch happy”, muttered Harsudiono.

24th September 2001:
The President today welcomed Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello. Costelo, freshly re-elected as prime minister, was stopping over in Jakarta en route in Washington. As they sat down to meet, Try was accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Edi Sudrajat; Costello by Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Philip Ruddock and Minister for Defense Peter Reith.

Costello said that he was going to Washington DC where he will commit Australia to the War on Terror and that he will pledge Australian personnel to the upcoming operations in Afghanistan. Ruddock said that Indonesia’s statements has been “promising” but that a definitive statement on the War on Terror by the world’s largest Muslim nation is still being awaited on by the world. Try said that there were two points to be made: that such a “definitive statement” will be at Indonesia’s timing and that there are certain conditions that must be made if Indonesia were to commit itself to the War on Terror. Costello said that would convey these words to McCain.

After saying to the gathered media that he had a productive meeting with the President, Costello departed for Washington.

25th September 2001:
During a work meeting with DPR Members, Minister of Civil Service Reform Kuntoro Mangkusubroto announced that the government will be recruiting civil servants again. Kuntoro said that the recruitment will focus on staff in charge of policy implementation rather than administration. But for exceptions which included the recruitment of ABRI officers, teachers, and doctors, a hiring freeze had been in place since June 1998. When asked why this hiring freeze had been lifted, Kuntoro said that the economy has recovered and the scope of the government’s work had expanded.

The policy was supported by all, something which earned the DPR members half-serious jokes by the media that there was no way the policy could not be supported because all of the political parties would be trying to get civil servants to vote for them.

26th September 2001:
Minister of Religion Quraish Shihab in a TVRI interview discussed about how Indonesian Muslims should process what happened two weeks prior. Encouraging Muslims to “learn more about their religion”, Quraish said that people need to be able to distinguish between Jihad and terrorism saying the latter was violence committed against innocent people. A key moment in the interview was when the interviewers half-jokingly said that there would not be “72 maidens in Heaven” for the hijackers of the airplanes which were crashed on 11th September.

“But the 72 maidens in Heaven are only for martyrs, not terrorists and there’s no guarantee that these terrorists are martyrs”, replied Quraish “It may well be the case that they died as infidels.”

27th September 2001:
In a joint press conference also attended by Edi Sudrajat, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan, and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana, Soerjadi announced that that the previous night, a joint Army and Police team had shot dead Jemaah Islamiyah Operative Imam Samudra. Imam Samudra was shot when trying to evade capture.

After describing Imam Samudra’s life which included stays in Afghanistan and in Malaysia where he interacted with Abu Bakar Baasyir, there followed Imam Samudra’s present story. Found on Imam Samudra was his laptop which contained various files. Ari Sudewo then took over saying that what the Anti-Terror Taskforce was most interested in were plans to conduct a Christmas Eve bombing in 2000 with a target of around 20 churches. This shows, Ari said, that despite the vigilance of the government, there are those out there hatching these plots. Wiranto spoke on behalf of ABRI saying that ABRI and its four branches are ready to be deployed against those wishing to disturb the nation with acts of terror.

28th September 2001:
Whilst closing a PNI DPR Candidates’ Training program, Chairwoman of PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri criticized the President’s anti-terror policy. Megawati argued that the President’s policy was too predicated on not having regards for human rights and trying too hard to impress the United States.

JB Sumarlin, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Anthony Salim, Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris, and Governor of BI Boediono were seen touring Harco Mangga Dua, an electronics shopping center in Jakarta. “Mr. Vice President, our items are flying off the shelves”, said a videogame shopowner when he saw Sumarlin walk pass. While his aides and some ministers were distracted by the football video game, Sumarlin chatted with the shop owner.

Speaking to the media outside, Sumarlin explained that consumption is still strong in 2001 and has been made even stronger by the currency. In the last two months and in the aftermath of 9/11, the Rupiah had strengthened to $1= Rp. 4,077 so the Rupiah is buying more. Sumarlin said with a smile that he thinks it’s going to be another good year in 2001.

1st October 2001:

US Embassy in Jakarta Cable to The Department of State
​

In Indonesia the 1st October is the Might of Pancasila Day, the day when the coup attempt allegedly launched by the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) was suppressed by Major General Soeharto who went on to become president until his death in 1997. At Crocodile Hole in East Java where the PKI killed and dumped the bodies of kidnapped army generals as the coup was being launched President Try Sutrisno presided over a ceremony to commemorate such events.

It is a routine event normally attended by dignitaries such as Vice President JB Sumarlin and Chairman of DPR Harmoko as well as by the diplomatic corps.

What was not routine was the fact that on this day, the ambassadors were bussed to the Crocodile Hole by the Department of Foreign Affairs; departing from the Department of Foreign Affairs building. At the end of the ceremony, we were bussed again. But rather than return to the Department of Foreign Affairs, we stopped at the Waspada Purba Wisesa (lit. Eternal Vigilance) Museum at Gatot Subroto Road at a complex on which the Satria Mandala Museum is located.

To our surprise, President Try was there accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Ginandjar joined and chatted with us while the President toured the museum.

The Eternal Vigilance Museum contains exhibits which portrays Indonesia’s struggle against Muslim extremists and terrorists throughout the years. Most notably it portrays the Indonesian military’s struggle to crack down on Darul Islam, a movement which sought to establish an Islamic state in Indonesia in 1949 and which was only suppressed in 1962.

The museum itself probably needs to be refurbished but considering the events of New York, Chicago, and Washington DC, and from conversation with Ginandjar as we toured the museum, we believe the Indonesian Government is sending a message to the White House.

First, that Indonesia has been fighting such threats for a far longer period of time than the United States.

Second, that if Indonesia threw its support to the United States in the War on Terror, it will be because it wants to not because it is pressured to.

Third, in light of the shooting to death of Jemaah Islamiyah member Imam Samudra and the uncovering of possible terror plots against targets in Indonesia, that Indonesia is also fighting its own War on Terror but that its association with the broader War on Terror must be on terms favorable to Indonesia.

---
Presidential Decision 38/1997 may be found here http://www.flevin.com/id/lgso/legislation/Mirror/czoyNToiZD0xOTAwKzk3JmY9a3AzOC0xOTk3LnBkZiI7.pdf

OTL Quraish Shihab’s comments on terrorists dying as infidels can be found in https://www.laduni.id/post/read/43529/quraish-shihab-bisa-jadi-para-teroris-mati-kafir though in its original context, it is used when he discussed the 2018 bombing in Surabaya.

OTL Imam Samudra is of course one of those involved with the 2002 Bali Bombings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imam_Samudra

The Eternal Vigilance Museum may be found on this Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satriamandala_Museum It was originally built during Soeharto’s presidency and opened in 1987.

 

[GSD310]

2nd October 2001:
President Try Sutrisno today attended the Department of Public Works’ Annual Work meeting. With Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar beside him and via teleconference, the President inaugurated the following toll roads:

*Medan-Binjai Toll Road in North Sumatra
*Antasari-Depok Toll Road in Jakarta and West Java
*Cikampek-Purwakarta-Padalarang Toll Road in West Java
*Semarang-Solo Toll Road in Central Java
*Semarang-Demak Toll Road in Cental Java

“Economic growth is generated by economic activity and economic activity is facilitated by infrastructure”, the President read in his speech to inaugurate the projects and open the work meeting “In turn, by having more economic growth we will increase our capacity to build more infrastructure and generate further economic growth.”

3rd October 2001:
At the DPR Building today, Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris introduced the new Manpower Law. In his introduction, Fahmi said that when passed this law will provide for the realization of a Pancasila Industrial Relations system.

Reacting to the introduction to this bill, Secretary of PNI Sutjipto challenged the DPR to wait until after the next election and PNI members are in the DPR as well so that they can debate the bill. Sutjipto criticized the government’s policy saying that the government had not raised minimum wage since 1999.

4th October 2001:
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a long press conference at the Department of Foreign Affairs after he met with the President. Among the various issues that were asked were the following:

*On the United States and its Coalition’s military buildup in preparation for the attack on Afghanistan, Ginandjar said that Indonesia has no comment because Indonesia is not involved. Ginandjar maintained that Indonesia’s policy was that it would not be involved in that the Americans have dubbed “Operation Enduring Freedom” but that it would not encourage or discourage other nations against taking a stance.

*Ginandjar was also asked about President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov’s statement in the last few days that muslim nations should not be under any obligation or pressure to support the United States and the warm welcome that it had received in the muslim world. Ginandjar said that that’s Russia’s statement and the response of the muslim world has no bearing on Indonesia’s foreign policy because whatever stance Indonesia takes will because it wants to not because it its pressured or obliged to.

*Ginandjar said that the President will be meeting with the presidents of the United States, Russia, and China at the upcoming APEC Summit in Shanghai.

5th October 2001:
The 56th ABRI Day was celebrated at Kemayoran, Central Jakarta on the long avenues that used to function as Jakarta’s International Airport. At the place of honor, the President, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan, Navy Chief of Staff Indroko Sastrowiryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe, and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana saluted the troops as they marched past.

“I believe that the Might of Pancasila Day and ABRI Day coming so close together in the calendar reflects how intertwined Pancasila and ABRI are. When in 1965, Pancasila had to show its might against the extreme left, ABRI was at the forefront and ABRI will remain at the forefront in the present day when Pancasila shows its might against Pancasila’s other enemies”, declared the President in his ABRI Day Address.

8th October 2001:
The DPR today passed the results of the budgetary audits for the 1997/1998 Budget, 1998/1999 Budget, and 1999/2000 Budgets into law. In a joint press conference with Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Chairman of BPK Kunarto said that overall, the Government’s financial accountability and transparency has improved throughout the 3.5 years of the new presidency. Kunarto made mention that off-budget funds have been been on the decrease during the current presidency.

Minister of Transmigration Rusmadi Sidik and Chairman of BP-7 Agus Widjojo signed an MoU committing their two agencies to P4 Training transmigrants about to depart for transmigration and for locals where the transmigrants will arrive. The aim being to improve cohesion by the two parties.

9th October 2001:
Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Wiranto, and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo came out of a meeting with the President. The four announced that after comparing notes, they can confirm that Jemaah Islamiyah operatives have not left the country. The four also said that the President had instructed them share intelligence and coordinate with each other on the possible movements of said operatives.

Leader of PKPB in the DPR Hartono calls for a resolution to be passed in the DPR condemning the impending invasion of Afghanistan. DPR Member Hamzah Haz (PPP) joined in the call while Jakob Tobing (PKPI) called for the DPR to wait for the government.

10th October 2001:
Demonstrations were held at the United States Embassy in Jakarta to condemn Operation Enduring Freedom which began today. Among those demonstrating was Ahmad Sumargono, Chairman of the Indonesian Committee for World Islamic Solidarity (KISDI) and also a PKPB member. After making their point at the United States Embassy, they were about to turn in the direction of the Presidential Palace when they were blocked by troops from the Regional Jakarta Military Command.

Appearing on television while these demonstrations were going on, Hamzah Haz said that the real terrorists in this situation are the United States. The President watched all this unfold on the television in his office with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. He was most annoyed at Hamzah Haz’ comments and noted that it was the third time in a month that he had made those comments.

At the Presidential Palace, it fell to Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman to explain to the reporters that the government had not changed its stance namely that it was not involved but would not encourage or discourage other nations from being involved in Afghanistan.

11th October 2001:
The President and his entourage landed at Pontianak, West Kalimantan where they were greeted on the tarmac by Governor of West Kalimantan Aspar Aswin. The entourage hopped in cars and travelled east from Pontianak to Tayan Hilir in Sanggau Regency. At a crossroads at Simpang Ampar, the President got out of his car and inaugurated the following:

*Kapuas II Bridge
*Pontianak-Tayan Road
*Tayan-Traju-Bale Bakuak Road

The President shook hands with the locals, some of whom were shocked to see him after being so used to see him on television or on the official photograph. Lunch made for some interesting conversation. It was not lost on Try that this region was still relatively isolated. He listened intently while Aspar made his explanation while Edi and Rachmat Witoelar took notes. Chairman of the Infrastructure Planning Committee Iwan Jaya Azis, who also came along for the trip, also paid attention. Try also asked questions of locals who said that economic life could be better if they had access to Pontianak.

From there, the Presidential entourage headed back to Pontianak where the President spent the night.

12th October 2001:
The President caught a small airplane from Pontianak, landing at Singkawang which was still in West Kalimantan. There his entourage were joined by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja. The first order of business for the President was to declare open a Farming Exhibition that was being held there.

Touring around the exhibition, the President became aware of Singkawang’s potential as a farming city. There were no shortage of chicken farmers, cattle farmers, and pig farmers to not say anything of the fruit farmers. In fact as Aspar said rather proudly to him, more than 90% of eggs in West Kalimantan were produced within the province. But as many of the farmers the President and Sarwono spoke to at the exhibition, infrastructure was an issue. They would like to sell their products beyond West Kalimantan but it was a struggle just getting to Pontianak much less other cities in Kalimantan and beyond.

After Friday Prayer at Singkawang Mosque, the President and his entourage flew back to Pontianak and then Jakarta. On the flight back, the President asked Iwan Jaya what major infrastructure projects were planned for Kalimantan. Iwan Jaya reported that the the Pontianak-Singkawang and Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Roads are in the pipeline. The President nodded in approval.

Meanwhile, Harsudiono Hartas reported that he had come from Jayapura and handed him Governor of Irian Jaya Jacob Pattipi’s resignation. Harsudiono said that Pattipi is dying and the President approved of Pattipi’s resignation.

13th October 2001:
Though a Saturday morning, the President swore in the following at the Presidential Palace:

*Prof. Dr. Balthasar Kambuaya MBA as Governor of Irian Jaya
*Drs. Potsdam Hutasoit as Head of the BNP2TKI
*Drs. Enggartiasto Lukita as Head of the Indonesian Economic and Trade Office to Taipei

The post-ceremony interviews were handled by Harsudiono Hartas and Edi Sudrajat. Edi said these were just routine appointments when asked whether Tosari Widjaja’s removal as Head of BNP2TKI had anything to do with him being a supporter of Hamzah Haz. Meanwhile Harsudiono explained that Kambuaya’s appointment means that the government would like to focus on economic development in Irian Jaya.

16th October 2001:
After having his Sunday off, conveying his condolences on the death of recently resigned Governor Jacob Pattipi, and only attending the Isra Miraj Celebration the previous day, the President had a third day off. This was apparently under the orders of the First Lady to keep his strength up.

It was only in the evening that there was movement at the Presidential Palace as the Presidential Motorcade made its way to Halim Perdanakusuma Airport. At the airport there was a buffet set up in the VVIP Room for both the President’s delegation and the delegation of officials seeing them of. Sitting in the corner, the President chatted privately with Vice President JB Sumarlin.

Outside the President held began shaking hands with the officials who were seeing him off. As the cameras snapped, reporters asked about what he intended to achieve in the trip which will take him

“Short answer: the national interest”, said Try with a smile that was Soeharto-esque.

“What about the long answer?” asked a reporter.

“The national interest”, repeated Try “Thank you, I have a flight to catch.”

---
Hamzah Haz being a nuisance (in Try’s POV) is the ITTL version of what he did OTL while being vice president; namely condemning the United States and playing the religion card.

You can see OTL Megawati having to deal with questions about Hamzah Haz’ comment when she visited the US in September 2001

And could I ask your guest if she could respond to her Vice President saying that the tragedy would cleanse the sins of the United States?

From: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/doc...wati-sukarnoputri-indonesia-and-exchange-with

Operation Enduring Freedom begins 3 days later than OTL to account for ITTL complications.

The difference between OTL and ITTL Indonesia at this point was that while OTL Indonesia readily condemned the events of 9/11, it became hesistant in its stance due to pressure from religious groups in Indonesia. So much so that in OTL, you have the PM of Australia putting pressure on Indonesia not to “weaken its support” on the eve of APEC 2001 (http://edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast/10/17/gen.indonesia.warnings/index.html)

 

[GSD310]

17th October 2001:
An overnight flight and the Presidential Airplane landed in the morning at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China. President Try Sutrisno and First Lady Tuti Setiawati were welcomed on the tarmac by Premier of China Zhu Rongji. The real welcome came at The Great Hall of the People. Try stood with President of China Jiang Zemin as both nations’ national anthems were played.

Then the meeting began. Try sat on one side of the table with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu. Jiang sat on his side with Zhu Rongji, Vice Premier Qian Qichen, Minister of Foreign Affairs Tang Jiaxuan, and Chairman of the National Development Commission Zeng Peiyan.

The Garuda and the Dragon began by praising each other. Try expressed Indonesia’s support for China’s accession to the WTO the next month while Jiang said that China was most pleased to hear changes in government policies towards the Indonesian Chinese; acknowledging the presence of two Indonesian Chinese ministers. The meeting ended with a commitment by China to facilitate study tours by Indonesian officials to study about how to manage Special Economic Zones from their Chinese counterparts as well as a commitment by Indonesia to simplify procedures for Chinese language schools to open up Chinese language courses in Indonesia and for Chinese teachers to be recruited into Indonesian private schools.

Afterwards Try was introduced to the members of the Politburo Standing Committee. He noticed Chairman of NPC Li Peng staring at him contemptuously. Vice Premier Wen Jiabao smiled politely but seemed to be taking measure of Try, the same went with Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission Luo Gan. Hu Jintao looked like someone who had either lost or is losing whatever political jockeying in the Chinese Communist Party.

The afternoon was spent taking questions from the Indonesian community living in Beijing. An Indonesian student studying in Beijing said that he’s received comments from Chinese students of something along of the lines of “Indonesia will never catch up to China”.

“I know it’s annoying but there are nations that are far stronger than ours and this is one of them”, said Try “We have to be humble, keep our head down and learn, but at the same time don’t give them too much respect that we’re too afraid to stand up to them.”

18th October 2001:
After a morning of sightseeing at the Great Wall of China, Try was brought to Zhongnanhai where Jiang has his offices and residence. Try brought Ginandjar and Edi with him while Jiang brought Qian and Tang. They smalltalked about the Great Wall until Jiang said that it is unfortunate that there is a perception that Indonesia and China are rivals. Try countered that Indonesia still has miles to go before it is anywhere near China’s rival. Jiang reiterated that China only wants to be Indonesia’s friend and Southeast Asia’s friend.

“I don’t doubt China’s intentions, Mr. President”, said Try “But if such were your intentions, you would permit Southeast Asia its independence on the world stage. The influence that you have in Cambodia, that you are trying to increase in Malaysia, and that you tried to get in Vietnam…how can ASEAN function when you are trying to make proxies out of its member nations?”

Jiang’s only apology was to geopolitical reality. He said that China being able to send a satellite to space, join the WTO, and get the opportunity to host the Olympic Games are signs of China’s increasing power. And increasing power means that China will have interests everywhere in the world and will seek to advance those interests including in Southeast Asia. He said that this “was unavoidable”.

Try knew that the conversation would not progress much from there. He endured what was tantamount to a semi-lecture on China’s increasing prominence in the world for another hour before shaking hands with Jiang and saying that they will see each other in Shanghai.

19th October 2001:
The morning saw the President and his delegation touch down in Shanghai, a bustling and modern-looking city. The APEC Summit was not due to start until the next day but leaders were already arriving and meeting with each other at the Shanghai International Convention Center. Try was no different. His first meeting at Shanghai was with none other than President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov. Try brought Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, and Edi with him into the room while Primakov was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov.

They immediately got into a discussion about the situation in the world after 9/11. Primakov reiterated what he had said publicly that Muslim nations should not be under any pressure or obligation to side with the United States in the War of Terror. Primakov said that in Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Brunei shared his sentiments. Try smiled at these comments while Edi said that whatever decision taken by Indonesia will take national interest into situation.

Despite this disagreement, Try and Primakov had a productive meeting which ended with them concluding a deal which saw Indonesia make official the purchase the following military equipment from Russia:

*70 Yakhont Anti-Ship Missiles for the Navy
*12 BTR-80 Armored Personnel Carrier for the Marine Corps

Wismoyo and Edi were happy to complete the purchase. The latter especially was happy because as minister of defense and security in October 1997, Edi had been interested in purchasing the Yakhont Missiles but the crisis brought a stop to that.

Back at the hotel, Try held a fourway meeting with Ginandjar, Wismoyo, and Edi. The meeting listened to Ginandjar who had been on special assignment that day. Ginandjar said that Air Force One was not due touch down until later in the day but that United States Secretary of State Richard Williamson was already in Shanghai. Ginandjar said that he had submitted Indonesia’s conditions for support of the United States in the War of Terror as ordered by the President to Williamson.

“What was their response?” asked Try.

“They told us that with the requests we’re making, especially regarding Freeport, that McCain’s going to expect us to commit troops on the ground in Afghanistan”, said Ginandjar “Secretary Williamson said that President McCain’s preference was for us to commit troops in Afghanistan but had instructed that it will depend on what we would ask of them in exchange for their support. Now it would seem they feel they have the grounds to ask just that.”

“There would be a lot of people wanting to nail us politically if we were to agree to this”, said Edi “But then again we didn’t just expect the Americans to roll over.”

The meeting broke up with Try asking Ginandjar to meet with his Thai and Filipino counterparts.

Try ended the day watching the Indonesian National Football team play its final 2002 World Cup Qualifying Match, losing the match and missing out on the possibility of qualification by coming third in its group. He immediately placed a call to Indonesian National Football Team Manager Glenn Hoddle to send his commiserations to the team.

20th October 2001:
The APEC Summit officially got underway today. Sitting in the chairman’s position, Jiang spoke about all the APEC member nations working together to ensure economic prosperity in a time of an economic downturn and terrorism.

Try delivered a speech saying that terrorism needed to be fought in order to create a stable environment for economic development but was more interested in the bilateral meetings in these summits. These were the highlights of his and his delegation’s day:

*The first leader he met was Premier of Vietnam Phan Van Kai. Try was accompanied by Ginandjar and Dorodjatun while Kai was accompanied by Vietnam Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Dy Nien and Vietnam Minister of Planning Tan Guan Xia. The Premier said that it was great to meet Try under more “conducive” conditions.

During the meeting, Dorodjatun and Xia signed an MoU between the two nations, committing Indonesia to make Vietnam as a “first option” for rice imports and committing Vietnam to import paper from Indonesia.

*Still accompanied by Ginandjar and Dorodjatun, Try met with President of South Korea Kim Dae Jung, Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Han Seung Soo, and Korean Minister of Planning and Budget Jin Nyum. On the economic front, despite South Korea struggling on the economic front it has pledged not to cut its intake on Indonesian migrant workers out of consideration that Indonesia is a vital ally.


*Edi Sudrajat and Anthony Salim met with Prime Minister of New Zealand Helen Clark and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Phil Goff. Trade between the two nations have carried on as normal but Indonesia failed to secure an unequivocal statement from Clark acknowledging East Timor to be a part of Indonesia and distancing themselves from the pro-East Timor independence movements in the country.

The meeting that Try was most nervous about was his “2.45 PM”. He brought in Ginandjar, Soerjadi, and Edi for this one. The men in the room representing the United States were Williamson, National Security Advisor Bill Kristol, White House Chief of Staff Rick Davis, and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Paul Wolfowitz who was happy to see Try. Try however found himself shaking hands with the white-haired man and posing for the cameras at the same time.

“Great to meet you at last, President Try”, he said “I’m John McCain.”

McCain and Try opened with preliminary statements. McCain stated that after the events of 9/11, it is clear that terrorism and extremism is a danger not only for the American people but also for other nations around the world and that this was why the United States has been trying to build a coalition in the War On Terror. McCain frankly acknowledged Indonesia’s important role saying that it would add legitimacy to the War on Terror if the world’s largest Muslim nation is on board.

Try said that second only to communism, religious extremism and those seeking to impose Sharia Law has been considered enemies of Pancasila in Indonesia since the establishment of the Republic. He reiterated the point that because of this there was no need to doubt Indonesia’s commitment to fighting extremism and that if it supported the War On Terror it would be because it wants to not because it is pressured to.

“And Indonesia will give its support to the United States’ War On Terror”, said Try “However, Indonesia needs to be satisfied that it is in its national interest to declare its support.”

Negotiations in the 24 hours since the list of Indonesia’s requests had been submitted to the American delegation had been conducted by Ginandjar and Williamson as well as their teams in between their APEC schedule. Now one by one, the two ministers went through Indonesia’s requests; McCain and Try making their comments. The following conditions were already approved:

-Indonesia will be given the status of “Strategic partner” in the War On Terror by the United States to avoid the term “Ally”.
-The ban on Indonesia’s participation in International Military Education and Training (IMET) placed in 1991 after the Dili Incident will be lifted.
-FAA certification process for IPTN’s N-250 Aircraft will continue without further disruption.
-The US Export Import Bank, Overseas Private Investment Cooperation, and Trade Development Agency to be mobilized to promote American trade and investment in Indonesia.
-A moratorium on the payment of all government debt for 10 years.

The conversation and negotiation between the two presidents began when McCain told Try about his desire that Indonesia should contribute some personnel on the ground in Afghanistan. Try said that it would not be feasible as there are already those seeking to play the religion card purely on the basis of Indonesia’s stance against terrorism and that “nationalist pride” would not stomach it if Indonesia became part of the coalition in Afghanistan.

Wolfowitz spoke out at this juncture and said that perhaps of commitment of troops in Afghanistan, Indonesia could commit its troops elsewhere. He said that the Filipino Government had also declared its support for the War On Terror but would prefer to concentrate its efforts in its own backyard with the various Islamic insurgents in the country. Williamson offered that Indonesia would contribute personnel to this cause.

Try began to ramble before finally saying yes while Edi tried his best to keep a poker face. This was why Ginandjar met Thailand Minister of Foreign Affairs Surakiart Sathirathai and Filipino Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo Siazon the previous night. It was to lobby the Thai and Filipino governments to in their turn lobby the United States Government not to push for Indonesian involvement in Afghanistan. The Filipino Government used the opportunity to ask for Indonesia to commit troops instead to the Philippines’ effort to fight Islamic insurgents instead, a request which Try accepted on condition that Indonesia will only participate once the moratorium takes effect.

Then came the issue of Freeport. In their negotiations, Williamson had told Ginandjar that this was something which McCain thought he should negotiate with Try directly.

Try had clearly expected too much of McCain for his face turned pale when McCain said that there was not a lot he could do about Freeport’s contract with the Indonesian Government. When Try argued that the present contract was a faulty contract made by the previous government, McCain would not be budged saying that both governments agreed to it. Soon enough a stalemate was reached and the room fell into an awkward silence.

“If you want something more”, began McCain “Either the deal on investment or the debt moratorium will need to be taken off the table or you need to commit troops to Afghanistan.”

All eyes in the room turned to Try.

---
At the Indonesian delegation’s table at the APEC Gala Dinner that night, the mood was jubilant. Dorodjatun was ecstatic about what a moratorium on debt payment for 10 years will mean while Mari was excited about US Investment that was to be directed in Indonesia’s direction. Edi was happy too but calmed them down and said that both sides have agreed to wait for a few days before issuing an official announcement. Only Try looked glum, having failed again to get the United States Government to budge on Freeport.

21st October 2001:
Try’s first agenda was a CNN interview recorded in his suite. After the previous day’s failure to sway McCain, Try was not to keen to do an interview on American cable TV though Edi set him straight and told him to focus. The interview, conducted by CNN’s Chief of Jakarta Bureau Maria Ressa, went over various issues including the Indonesian economy and the world post 9/11.

“I suppose the question is, Mr. President, what is on your mind as a Moderate Muslim when you see images of the US and its coalition as it goes about the task of unseating the Taliban in Afghanistan?” asked Ressa not realizing that Try winced at the term moderate.

“To start off, I don’t think I would classify myself as a moderate”, replied Try.

“Okay, Mr. President, how would you classify yourself?” asked Ressa.

“I think the term moderate is inaccurate because it implies that fundamentally speaking, I feel the same way about the United States as those extremists did but that I’m not far enough down the road to actually get into an airplane and hijack it”, said Try “I would classify myself instead as a mainstream Muslim. I say that because what these people did on 11th September is so far removed from my experience with and my attitude towards my religion that I can’t imagine being on the same spectrum as these people and their sympathizers that terms like moderate and extreme imply.”

After some more questions, the interview veered back to the comments of Russia’s Primakov and how Muslim nations should not feel pressured into supporting the United States in the War on Terror.

“Let’s put aside the mindset of being afraid of being labeled as pro or anti-American for a minute”, began Try “If someone commits a heinous crime and claims to do it in your name, do you just stand, do nothing, and let then them continue dishonoring your reputation or do you tell that person "Stop committing these crimes and stop claiming to do them in my name"? From where I sit, we need to stand up against these people because they’re dishonoring my religion.”

The APEC Summit came to an end mid-morning with a photo session at Shanghai’s Pudong Waterfront with Try and all the other leaders wearing Tang Jackets. They were all still wearing these jackets when Jiang read out the Leaders’ Declaration.

To Try’s surprise after Jiang finished reading his statement, McCain sought him out. McCain told Try that about what they agreed on and said that they should not announce it yet as had been promised at yesterday’s meeting.

“There’s some…amendments I would like to make”, said McCain “I just want ask you for extra time.”

“Of course, Mr. President”, said Try thinking that not much was going to change.

McCain offered his hand and Try shook it. To Try’s surprise, it seemed to him that McCain was showing a hint of emotion.

“I watched your interview on CNN this morning, Mr. President, and I just want to say it’s worth a lot more to me and my countrymen than a million condemnations”, he said before regaining composure “I will make it up to you, Mr. President.”

After McCain, Try had a quick and informal meeting and photo-op with Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong, Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, and Premier of Vietnam Phan Van Khai. They only exchanged pleasantries and did not see a lot of each other during the summit, knowing that they will have plenty to talk about at the ASEAN Summit in two weeks’ time at Bandar Sri Begawan. In recognition of this, Bolkiah was placed center in their photo-op.

It was time to depart from Shanghai and just as the Presidential Airplane began to move, Try retreated into his private office with Edi. Edi too said that White House Chief of Staff Rick Davis had talked to him about McCain wanting to “amend a few things”.

“Can I say something, Mr. President?” asked Edi “I think you shouldn’t let the failure to get McCain to budge on Freeport get to you.”

“I’m just thinking that it’s important get Freeport right”, said Try “If we can fix that, we’re on stronger ground with the rest of our mining contracts or anything natural resources-related.”

“I know, Mr. President”, said Edi “But what you got is not insubstantial, think of all this nation can achieve when it does not have pay debt for 10 years.”

“I suppose you’re right”, said Try.

“Leave whatever McCain and Davis or Wolfowitz or anyone in that Administration want to amend to me, Mr. President, you just focus on what we want to achieve in Africa”, said Edi.

---
Still no dice on Freeport as Try chooses debt moratorium rather than force the issue regarding Freeport but his interview on CNN seems to have struck a chord with McCain.

Indonesia’s OTL interest in Yakhont Missiles in 1997 can be found here https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94948/wp_sdsc_411.pdf. OTL the Indonesian Navy did puchase 50 Yakhont Missiles.

The trade and investment portion of what Indonesia and the US agreed on is based on what OTL Megawati achieved when she visited the US in September 2001 https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/WCPD-2001-09-24/pdf/WCPD-2001-09-24-Pg1340.pdf

The US Military Embargo on the Indonesian military which was in effect at this time in OTL does not apply ITTL since the embargo was put in place as a response of what happened in OTL East Timor in 1999 which has been butterflied away.

It took me a while to settle on debt moratorium. I didn’t want it to be debt rescheduling or debt relief because Indonesia’s too big of an economy to get such things (I’m sure the rest of the third world won’t be happy) but I wanted something debt-related that would place it in a position for more development and faster progress.

Try’s comments during his CNN interview is not based on anything he’s said OTL but just want to continue with the “World’s Largest Muslim Nation Takes A Decisively Strong Stance On Terrorism and Extremism” theme.

 

[GSD310]

22nd October 2001:
President Try Sutrisno had arrived at Abuja, Nigeria the previous night but it had been too late for any official activities but now it was morning and it was time for him to go about his engagements. At Aso Villa, Nigeria’s Presidential Palace, Try was given his official welcome by President of Nigeria Olesegun Obasanjo.

The ceremonies out of the way, Try and Obasanjo got down to business. Try brought along Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Obasanjo was accompanied by Vice President/Chairman of the National Economic Council Atiku Abubakar, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sule Lamido, Minister of Finance Adamu Ciroma, Minister of Commerce Mustapha Bello, Minister of Industries Kolawole Babalola Jamodu, and Minister of Justice Bela Iga.

On the economic front the two delegations discussed various ways to facilitate Indonesian FMCGs to invest in Nigeria and better use it as a launching pad to access the West African market. They agreed that there is a great opportunity for cooperation in terms of creating employment for Nigerians and gaining market access for Indonesian products.

On the security front, the Nigerians expressed their desire to learn about Pancasila to establish a stronger basis for a multi-religious society. The Indonesians said that they are more than happy to accommodate. An MoU was signed by Soerjadi and Bela Iga committing Indonesia to set aside spots at Lemhanas Courses and P4 Training for Nigerian civil servants.

For the benefit of the cameras, Try and Obasanjo stood by as first Dorodjatun and Abubakar signed an Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement.

23rd October 2001:
The day began with breakfast at Aso Villa with Obasanjo. Obasanjo said he had been unpopular in recent times for supporting Operation Enduring Freedom and that he admired Try for the statement he made in Shanghai about wanting to be a mainstream rather than a moderate Muslim. Try joked that he’s certain there are those who disagree with him. Obasanjo told him that it is small price to pay for increasing prominence.

At their joint press conference, Try hailed Obasanjo as a unifier of Nigeria while Obasanjo praised Try, again using the word prominent, as an emerging statesman from an emerging nation.

Try and the Presidential Delegation then flew from Abuja to Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial center. The first event was co-hosted by the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA) and Indonesia’s KADIN whose chairman Aburizal Bakrie had also attended the trip from Shanghai. Try delivered the keynote speech.

“The downside of being export-oriented is that you are reliant on your export markets always having good economic conditions. But the economic downturn this year has taught Indonesia that it cannot place all its export eggs in the one export market basket and so it must diversify. Africa is a natural place for Indonesia to set its sights on.”

Then what followed was an impressive sight as one after another the CEOs of Wings (detergent), Sosro (bottled tea), Mayora (biscuits), and Kalbe Farma (pharmaceuticals) signed agreements for establishing distribution in Nigeria or expanding distribution within Nigeria with their Nigerian partners. While all this was happening Try watched from his table while Anthony Salim sat beside him to give information about what the company in question was up to in Nigeria. Anthony said that this was the first step and that the next step would be to expand distribution elsewhere in West Africa; he pointed out there were businesspeople from Ghana, Benin, Togo, and Cameroon.

In late afternoon early evening there was a meet and greet session with the Indonesian community at Lagos at which Try explained about his strong stance on terrorism and the goals he had outlined for the nation at his State Address.

24th October 2001:
With Anthony Salim by his side and Bello representing the Nigerian Government, Try today inaugurated Wings Group’s Representative Offices in Lagos. In his speech, Try called the employees Indonesia’s “Spearheads in accessing new markets”.

From there it was of to Murtala Muhammed International Airport. By late afternoon, the Presidential Airplane had landed at Addis Ababa Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The official welcome was given by President of Ethiopia Girma Wolde-Giorgis at the National Palace.

After the National Palace, Try’s Presidential Delegation went to Menelik Palace this time to be welcomed by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi Asres, the person who held the real power in Ethiopia. Try was joined by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Edi Sudrajat and Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja who joined the trip in Addis Ababa. Meles was accompanied by Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs Seyoum Mesfin, Minister of Finance and Economic Development Sufian Ahmed as they disappeared for talks.

It was nearly dusk when in the presence of their ministers and the cameras, Try and Meles signed a cooperation agreement which would enhance cooperation across the areas of agriculture, education, and family planning with Indonesia facilitating study programs for Ethiopian civil servants while Ethiopia pledged to facilitate access to its markets.

That night, there was a banquet held by the Ethiopian Chamber of Commerce and Sectorial Associations. In Try and Meles’ presence, agreements were signed between Indonesian companies and their Ethiopian counterparts: Wings Group and Mayora (again for Kopiko and Mayora biscuits) to set up their respective distribution centers in Ethiopia. Try once again delivered the keynote speech.

25th October 2001:
The Indonesian delegation broke into two today. One half of the delegation were led by Dorodjatun and Anthony Salim and comprising of the Indonesian businessmen who went on the trip toured Addis Ababa to look at the business prospects there and listen to presentations from the Ethiopian Government. When asked by the Indonesian media who attended the trip about Ethiopia’s prospects and why Indonesian businesses were there, Anthony said that as businessmen they have to be able to look at a nation’s prospects not just at the present but in the next 10 years. He said that the selection of Nigeria and Ethiopia were not accidental as export markets as these nations are the two most populous nations in Africa.

That evening, the delegation led by Dorodjatun and Anthony flew to Harar to get ready for the next leg of the trip.

The other delegation comprised of Try, Ginandjar, Sarwono, and Edi. After a courtesy call to visit Meles, the four departed for Harar, where coffee was allegedly invented. Ethiopian Minister of Agriculture Mengistu Hulluka acted as tour guide as the small entourage toured a coffee plantation, spoke to workers, and had coffee. Try said that he was reminded of plantation workers back in Indonesia when he spoke to them and asked about their knowledge about their plants.

The most interesting development of the day happened out of sight when during dinner time when Edi took a phone call and then asked Try to join him in a private room. Try took the call, it was none other than President of the United States John McCain. McCain said that he’s pressured Freeport-McMoran via former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who is a board member of Freeport.

“Congratulations, they’ve agreed to start divesting their shares in their mine in Irian Jaya”, said McCain “But as to negotiations about the implementation of this divestment and other issues they would like to bring up with your Government, I will leave that to you and Freeport.”

26th October 2001:
The Presidential Airplane took off again this morning and a short flight later, Try landed in Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Nairobi, Kenya. Kenyan Minister of Foreign Affairs Christopher Obure welcomed Try as he walked off the plane. From the Airport, Try departed for the State House where President of Kenya Daniel Arap Moi gave him the official welcoming ceremony.

They immediately got talking. Try, Ginandjar, Dorodjatun, Anthony, and Edi for Indonesia. Moi, Obure, Kenyan Minister of Finance Chris Olemo, and Kenyan Minister of Trade JJ Kamotho for Kenya. Among discussions about various topics, the main breakthrough was that Indonesia and Kenya agreed to begin negotiations for a preferential trade agreement.

There was another signing ceremony, though this was one that Anthony stayed well clear from propriety’s sake. Indofood, owned by Anthony’s family and which he was CEO of until his appointment as minister of trade. Bakrie, speaking to the Indonesian media said that this trip has been about providing opportunity for all Indonesian businessmen to gain access to the African market. Try delivered the keynote speech.

That evening Try had a private one-on-one dinner with Moi. It was Try’s first chance to get to know Moi though he had seen Moi when the latter attended the G-15 in Jakarta earlier in the year. Moi openly admitted that he was drifting closer in the direction of Russia and China because of his experiences with the IMF in recent times. Moi said that the United States will be kept busy with “fighting terrorists” and wonders if this will keep it distracted enough to not be able to focus on Russia and China.

The conversation turned out interesting. Try thought there was something similar about Moi serving as vice president, ascending to the presidency because the existing president passed away, and going through a situation where “everybody underestimated me and didn’t expect me to last long”. Moi laughed when he heard Try’s story that “the daughters of my predecessors are after me”.

“Some of us are not meant to be unchallenged or undisputed”, said Moi “When that happens, the only option we have left is just to keep overcoming whoever’s challenging us.”

27th October 2001:
Another early take off took Try and his delegation from Nairobi to Julius Nyerere International Airport in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. After being welcomed on arrival by Prime Minister of Tanzania Frederick Sumaye and Tanzanian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Jakaya Kikwete. Try was getting familiar with the routine, he guessed correctly that he would be given the official welcome at the State Palace by President of Tanzania Benjamin Mkapa.

After the welcome, Try accompanied by Ginandjar and Edi met with Mkapa who was in turn accompanied by Sumaye and Kikwete. Try and Mkapa discussed international issues. Mkapa said that he had supported the United States in the War of Terror because Tanzania had been attacked by terrorists in 1998 but that he did not want Tanzania to drift to close to the United States. Try said that it was a good approach to have though Mkapa teased him saying that it looked like Indonesia was playing hard-to-get with the United States trying to get its support. Try tried to smile without revealing that he and the United States had come to an agreement. He was saved by Edi who asserted that Indonesia is considering its interests and not of the United States when it comes to that issue.

The conversation from international affairs to economic cooperation. Try said that the NAM should not just be a political forum but also a forum for economic conversation and that Indonesia and Tanzania, being well-respected members of the NAM should lead by example by deepening economic ties. Mkapa agreed with this.

Tanzania’s Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture held dinner that night. There was another signing ceremony, setting up a distribution center for Wings Group, Sosro, and Mayora in Tanzania. Try by now could deliver most of the keynote speech without looking at the text since the contents of the speech were the same except for the mention of specific characteristics of the African nation was was currently visited.

28th October 2001:
Try’s Coffee morning at the Indonesian Embassy in Kenya involved a small ceremony from the Indonesians living in Kenya as this was Youth Oath day. It was for the most part a day of rest and refreshing for Try. With First Lady Tuti Setiawati he flew to Kilimanjaro National Park where he went on a safari.

29th October 2001:
The Indonesians and Tanzanians got at it early with a working breakfast. Try, Ginandjar, Dorodjatun, Anthony, Sarwono, and Edi for the Indonesians, Mkapa, Sumaye, Kikwete, Minister of Industry and Commerce Juma Ngasongwa, and Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Charles Keenja. At the end of it, in a somewhat lengthy press conference, Ginandjar and Kikwete announced various areas of deepening cooperation between the two nations from trade, agriculture, and fighting AIDS. In agriculture, Indonesia pledged to continue its Farmer’s Agriculture and Rural Training Centre (FARTC) program with Tanzania which was begun in 1996.

Try and Mkapa held a joint press conference in which Try and Mkapa joked that Indonesia and Tanzania are the IMF’s Bad Boy and Golden Boy working together side by side. Then there was one final handshake for the cameras and then Try departed for the Airport and another flight on the Presidential Airplane.

It was late afternoon when the Presidential Airplane landed in Johannesburg, South Africa. He was welcomed by Deputy President of South Africa Jacob Zuma and South African Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma who happened to be Zuma’s wife. Zuma gave him the official welcome at the airport.

By now Try was used to signing ceremonies and that was precisely his first engagement, held by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Nearly all of the businesses which had joined Try and his delegation had something to sign. Kalbe Farma which hasn’t signed an agreement since Nigeria, joined in with the festivities while Wings, Mayora and Sosro were at it again. Mustika Ratu (cosmetics) signed an agreement for the first time in the trip as did Batik Keris who will be selling Indonesian-made “Madiba shirts”. As Try would later say in his keynote speech, South Africa is the economic hub of the nation.

30th October 2001:
In the morning, Try departed for Pretoria. At the Mahlamba Ndlopfu Palace, Try was welcomed by President of South Africa Thabo Mbeki. There was none of the across the table meeting with multiple ministers as most of the South African ministers had already departed for Dhaka, Bangladesh where the NAM Summit was going to be held in a few days’ time.

The talks between Try (accompanied by Ginandjar and Edi) and Mbeki (accompanied by Dlamini-Zuma) were good. Mbeki said that South Africa would also like to invest in Indonesia to which Try readily gave instructions for Ginandjar to facilitate through the Indonesian Embassy in South Africa. Mbeki also promised that he will be bringing a business delegation to Indonesia early next year.

On the upcoming NAM Summit, Mbeki said that Russia and China wanting to challenge the United States and 9/11 had made the NAM Summit all the more relevant. He told Try that the message he was getting from Dhaka was that Indonesia’s made some waves recently; politically by its strong stance on terrorism and economically just by its strong economic performance in the year and by its “tour of Africa”. Try laughed it off saying that he preferred not causing any waves.

After a joint press conference and a photo-op, Try and his delegation returned to Johannesburg. There they visited Fourways Mall, the largest shopping center in the city. Try and the First Lady visited a supermarket where they looked for and posed for pictures with Indonesian products sold on there.

That night back at the hotel, Try, Ginandjar, Dorodjatun, Anthony, Sarwono, and Edi held a conference call at the hotel. On the phone from Jakarta were Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu.

In this meeting, Try outlined the concessions he got from the United States in exchange for Indonesia’s support in the War on Terror. There were some applause over the phone when Try mentioned 10 year debt moratorium but there were cheers when Try said that McCain had gotten Freeport to budge. Try calmed them down saying that the details would have to be negotiated and that he would be announcing this news the next day.

31st October 2001:
From a VIP Lounge at OR Tambo International Airport, The President held a long press-conference attended by members of the Indonesian media who had been included as part of the trip. He first declared his visit of the five African nations in the last 10 days a success and specifically singled out Anthony Salim for getting the national export strategy up and running.

“We need to build up on this visit, to be sure”, said Try “But we have laid for ourselves a strong foundation as far as gaining access to export markets in Africa by showing that we are serious about them.”

Of course the bombshell came next with Try announcing the various concessions he was able to get from the United States to Indonesia. At that time, someone said jokingly, the visit to Africa to establish new export markets became a distant memory. Freeport and a 10 year debt moratorium soon dominated the minds of the cameramen and the reporters taking notes.

Edi and Ginandjar watched from the entrance of the VIP Lounge.

“I wouldn’t have thought that McCain would’ve budged”, said Ginandjar “But then again the strategic environment is in our favor, what with Pakistan not supporting the United States and Russia trying to portray itself as sympathetic to the Islamic world, the United States needs us.”

“Perhaps”, countered Edi before saying again “Most of the news will be Freeport but the real gain here is the debt moratorium, 10 years without having to budget for debt payment…imagine what we can do with that.”

There were sounds of cameras snapping as Try got up from his seat.

“You have to pack up your equipments and we have a long flight to catch”, said Try “Off to the NAM Summit we go and then to the ASEAN Summit!”

---
OTL, Indonesian fast moving consumer goods’ entrance into the African market is something that is not coordinated the way it is ITTL. You get bits and pieces about companies targeting the African market and succeeding over the years but that’s about it, I think for the most part that these companies are left on their own. What happens ITTL is that Anthony Salim the Minister of Trade is going for an approach where these companies go in with the support of the Indonesian Government in a bid to diversify Indonesia's export markets.

OTL Anthony Salim is the current Head of the Salim Group which produces Indomie instant noodles and which originally opened a factory in Nigeria 1995. As ITTL Minister of Trade, he’s encouraging other businesses to tap into the opportunities available in Africa.

 

[GSD310]

1st November 2001:
President Try Sutrisno looked around the Convention Hall in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The sight of the leaders of the third world gathered in one place was admittedly an inspiring sight. He and his delegation had arrived late last night after a long flight from South Africa. That morning he had woken up, made his way to the Convention Hall and shook hands with Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia who hosted the Summit.

But then the Summit began. Zia, who had recently taken office by building a coalition with Islamists delivered the first speech of the summit. She spoke about various international issues and spoke against the “War on Terror” becoming a “War on a certain faith” and said that “certain nations, even though they are part of the faith being attacked, are aiding and abetting the War on Terror in becoming a War on a certain faith”. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita would later say he could notice the eyes being cast in Try’s direction at this comment.

Try’s speech addressed the issues of the day saying that the “first step towards non-alignment is to be non-aligned in one’s respective region and not allow the world’s great powers to determine policy there”, an argument he often made about Southeast Asia being free of China’s influence. On the fight against terrorism, Try spoke out against “forces which sought to twist religion to their own ends and which must be stood up against.”

Indonesia was not the only issue on the minds of various leaders as they made their speech but references to its present stance on terrorism would appear in the speeches of those critical of Indonesia. The speech that was most critical of Indonesia came from Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak who criticized “nations who try too hard to court the support of the aggressor nation despite having the largest amount of adherents of the faith under attack”. Ginandjar and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat gritted their teeth at this whilst Try looked blankly at the space in front of him.

Indonesia’s stance in the War on Terror was not the only thing that came under attack. President of Mozambique Joaquim Chissano attacked the “neo-colonialism which stands between the way between our comrades in FRETILIN and East Timor Independence”, such similar sentiments were shared by Cuba, represented by Vice President of Cuba Raul Castro.

Seated alphabetically, Try was seated between Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee and President of Iran Mohammad Khatami. These two thankfully gave Try some respite, giving him sympathetic smiles when a comment became too biting. President of Philippines Joseph Estrada and then Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra came to Try’s defense saying that nations “who take a decisive stance against those who twist their religion into terrorism should be encouraged not condemned”.

When the day’s speeches were at last over, Try breathed a sigh of relief. Behind him, Ginandjar and Edi were having a discussion about possibly walking out on the Summit.

“We’ll do no such thing”, said Try hearing the mutterings behind him “Keep your head and focus down, there’s a time and a place to throw our weight around.”

2nd November 2001:
The NAM Summit gave Try a chance to meet a lot of leaders from various continents at the same time. There were formal meetings but there were also informal encounters as he bumped into various leaders as he walked down hallways to the next meeting.

From Asia, Try’s most notable meeting was with President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. Karimov said that he too had asked for and received a lot of concessions, economic or otherwise, from the United States in exchange for his allowing the United States to set up military bases in Uzbekistan to allow them to attack Afghanistan from. Karimov said that the national interest called for it though the “price” for this was that Uzbekistan, like Indonesia, is now being seen as “pro-American”. The two commiserated with each other on this.

Try also took time to meet with the NAM’s only member from Oceania, Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea Mekere Morauta. Morauta thanked Indonesian investors and tourists for somewhat cushioning the blow received by Papua New Guinea as a result of the 2001 economic downturn; a strong Rupiah combining with a weak Kina to make Papua New Guinea a cheaper place to invest and visit. Try said that it was in Indonesia’s interest to see Papua New Guinea prosper and said that he hopes that there will be indirect benefit to the 10 year debt moratorium for Indonesia’s eastern neighbors.

The Middle East was a mixed bag. Saudi Arabia Minister of Foreign Affairs Saud bin Faisal delivered a strongly worded letter signed by King Fahd speaking out against Indonesia’s stance against terrorism and calling for the Indonesian Government to stop “spying on LIPIA” saying that this ran the risk of “jeopardizing relations” between the two nations. The letter threatened that the construction of Exor II in Irian Jaya, in which Aramco is involved, may also be jeopardized. King Abdullah II of Jordan’s reaction was warmer and he told Try he who supported his stance. Even more warm was President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak who said that he drew strength from what he said.

From Africa where he just had a tour to begin opening Africa’s markets, Try met at last with President of Gabon Omar Bogo. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 1999, Gabon had supported the UN Resolution acknowledging East Timor to be a part of Indonesia. Beyond official meetings, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim was swarmed by counterparts from Africa eager to get information on what are the possible benefits of trading with Indonesia.

The most notable meeting with a South American nation was with President of Suriname Ronald Venetiaan. Venetiaan invited Try to come and visit Suriname and both presidents agreed to activate the cooperation commission established in 1992.

3rd November 2001:
The NAM Summit came to an end today with a failed attempt at a joint declaration. Whilst condemning terrorism, Bangladesh and Malaysia also wanted to condemn “acts of aggression claimed to be done in the name of fighting terrorism”. Uzbekistan said that if the summit wanted to press with this statement, it should also outright condemn religious extremism. There was enough rejection for Uzbekistan’s proposition for a deadlock to be reached.

After the Summit was over Try paid courtesy calls to President of Bangladesh A.Q.M Badrudozza Chowdhury and Zia though these were done out of diplomatic niceties rather than genuine warmth after Zia’s comments. By the time he and his delegation arrived at the Zia International Airport, Try could no wait to get out of Bangladesh. Though Indonesia did not return from the summit emptyhanded, there was some frustration in the delegation at the condemnation Indonesia received on the first day of the summit.

Though he seemingly took the criticism against Indonesia in stride, Try could not pretend he was undisturbed. The next time he went overseas, he would re-establish Indonesia’s image as being non-aligned as well as put it in a stronger bargaining position.

The Presidential Airplane landed at Bandar Sri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam very late in the afternoon and Try was welcomed by Crown Prince Al-Muhtadee Billah Bolkiah.

Try was taken to the Nurul Iman Palace to be welcomed by Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah. Bolkiah had not attended the NAM Summit to focus on preparing to chair and host the ASEAN Summit but told Try that he was keen to talk to him. Bolkiah gave a tour of his opulent palace to Try all the while talking one-on-one with him of various issues.

Bolkiah told Try that while he would not stand up and deliver criticism in front of an entire summit, he shared some of the sentiments which were directed at Try at the NAM Summit. Bolkiah also said that he was against the United States, Australia, and Canada trying to get some kind of a statement on the War On Terror at the APEC Summit because of religious sensitivities. He concluded by saying that he is saying this as a friend without any intention of jeopardizing Brunei’s relationship with Indonesia. Try said that he respected the opinions of Brunei and appreciated the fact that Brunei have conveyed such opinions tactfully.

4th November 2001:
One by one, delegations from the ASEAN Nations began arriving at Bandar Sri Begawan for the ASEAN Summit. At his hotel, President Try spent the morning resting and meeting with his delegation to the ASEAN Summit which consisted of Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Anthony Salim, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu.

Siswono and Anthony reported to the meeting that at the ministerial-level meetings, Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia/Minister of International Trade and Industry Syed Hamid Albar has “kindly asked” if AFTA will be put on the agenda.

“These Malaysians, they’re really playing the “You want to be the leader of ASEAN, you better start by leading on AFTA” card with us aren’t they?” asked Edi looking annoyed.

“They seem to forget that they were the ones who asked for implementation of AFTA to be suspended back in 1998”, muttered Siswono.

Try asked Ginandjar to read out what Indonesia was going to propose regarding AFTA.

“These are interesting proposals but how will those 3 countries respond to it?” asked Dorodjatun “Considering we will need two out of those three countries to approve our 10 year debt moratorium to make things official.”

“South Korea knows it’s coming, I’ve brought it up with them at APEC”, replied Ginandjar “The Japanese are beginning to pick up on it from their business lobbies. Prime Minister Kato will not be happy but most members of the Japanese government will realize that this is not directed against them.”

“And China?” asked Dorodjatun.

Everyone in the room turned to the President for a response.

“Thank you for the meeting everyone”, replied Try.

5th November 2001:

Sitting in the chairman’s position, Bolkiah declared the ASEAN Summit open and one by one the leaders read out their speeches. When it came to his turn, Try’s speech addressed the latest strategic issues.

“Going after the perpetrators of the events which occurred in New York, Washington DC, and Chicago nearly two months ago will neccesarily occupy the United States’ attention. If prior to 11th September, the United States has made it clear that Southeast Asia are not among its priorities, we must be even more careful when its attention is drawn elsewhere. It means we cannot use the United States to counterbalance the intentions of other major powers trying to impose its will on Southeast Asia.”

During his turn, Razak stuck to his line that ASEAN had to implement existing agreements which had gone dormant such as AFTA rather than embark on new venture. The only addition his made to a spiel which most in Southeast Asian capitals had been familiar with was that he realized that it had been Malaysia which had asked for the implementation of AFTA to be suspended in 1998 but that now he feels that it is time for this decision to be reviewed. Razak therefore requests that ASEAN review this decision and that if ASEAN’s “most prominent nation” would give its advice, ASEAN would follow suit.

Terrorism and the economic downturn were on the minds of the leaders of ASEAN. All focused on these issues without revealing their hand on what they wanted the summit to achieve. Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra and the Philippines’ Joseph Estrada sided with Indonesia on the issue of terrorism but was non-specific on how ASEAN should respond to the 2001 economic downturn. Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen got some looks his way when he openly advocated closer trade relations with China. Meanwhile President of Vietnam Tran Duc Luong in his speech took Indonesia’s side to remind the Summit that a “major power” tried to intervene in its internal affairs when it successfully delayed the 9th Vietnamese Communist Party National Congress.

Once the speeches had been made, the lobbying began in between bilateral meetings. Try and Edi met with Estrada and Executive Secretary Edgardo Angara from the Philippines and Thaksin Shinawatra who was accompanied by Minister to the Office of Prime Minister Chaturon Chaisang. Try reiterated his commitment to back the Philippines militarily in its campaign against Islamic insurgents in the country but softly reminded that it will be conditional on Indonesia’s debt moratorium being approved by the Paris Club. Thaksin also expressed Thailand’s desire to commit personnel as well though it will be conditional on Indonesia’s involvement. Estrada thanked both Try and Thaksin saying that the Philippines was still struggling with Islamic insurgency throughout 2001 and could use the assistance.

The next matter they discussed was AFTA. Thaksin said that the summit seemed to lean on the side on working implementation of AFTA, especially because of the economic downturn around the world, and that this was a chance for Indonesia to exercise leadership in the economic field. Try then replied with what he was proposing to the Summit.

It was a proposal which Ginandjar, Dorodjatun, Siswono, and Anthony were making to their ministerial counterparts and which then made the rounds to the ASEAN leaders. The 3-point proposal were as follows:

-Suspension on the implementation of the AFTA will be lifted for all ASEAN Nations and all ASEAN Members can begin implementing its AFTA Commitments.

-As it would be impossible to implement AFTA provisions by 2003 (as agreed at the 1995 ASEAN Summit), Indonesia proposes that AFTA would take into effect in 2011 or 2012 so that all ASEAN members will have the opportunity to take part when AFTA takes effect.

-Indonesia’s participation in AFTA conditional on the cessation of ASEAN+3 Meetings.

The first two items of the proposal were well-received with a general consensus quickly developing that the differences between ASEAN member nations will be in relation to the timing of its implementation.

It was the third item of the proposal that gave those attending the summit some thought. ASEAN+3 was an annual meeting between all 10 ASEAN members and leaders from China, Japan, and South Korea which had been held since 1997. As Indonesia proposed, however, to ensure ASEAN’s “Strategic independence”, nations which are not members should not have a say in matters related to ASEAN as a collective.

The “Try-Point Proposal”, as it was already being referred, occupied the minds of those attending the 2001 ASEAN Summit as the day came to a close.

At the Malaysian Government’s Suite, the Malaysian delegation discussed these conditions, especially the third one.

“This is a good proposal”, began Syed Hamid Albar “But this third proposal, what does it mean?”

“It means that ASEAN will get AFTA if it ceases to hold ASEAN+3 meetings”, explained Minister of Foreign Affairs Rais Yatim “But this means we would be allowing Indonesia to determine who can come and cannot come to the ASEAN Summit and who ASEAN nations can and cannot meet during the ASEAN Summit. If we were to allow this to happen…”

“That would be the same as accepting that Indonesia’s in charge”, muttered Razak.

6th November 2001:
That morning, ASEAN Secretary-General Rodolfo Severino called for a straw poll to be held to see where the Summit stood on Try’s proposal. All members agreed to this. The result was as follows:

For President Try Sutrisno’s Three-Point Proposal:
Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Laos and Vietnam

Against President Try Sutrisno’s Three-Point Proposal:
Malaysia and Cambodia

Abstaining On President Try Sutrisno’s Three-Point Proposal:
Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, and Myanmar

It was not a majority though given that “6 Fors” were required for such a majority to be reached, the Summit could not have failed to notice that Indonesia was one vote away from gaining majority support for its proposal. There were gasps and murmurings around the room. Severino called for further dialogue to be held between ASEAN members as regards Indonesia’s proposal to ensure a “more unanimous outlook” and this was agreed by all members.

The awkward part was that China, Japan, and South Korea had arrived at the Summit. China represented by Premier of China Zhu Rongji, Japan by Prime Minister Koichi Kato, and South Korea by Minister of Foreign Affairs Han Seung-Soo. The Chinese delegation were enraged that a vote, albeit unbinding, had been taken about the possibility of China not having an annual dialogue with all 10 ASEAN Countries in the same place.

Indonesia however, continued to press matters. Try said that Indonesia respects the Summit’s opinion on his proposal, he asks however that the Summit would respect Indonesia’s stance of wanting diplomatic relations with China, Japan, and South Korea on a bilateral basis but not on an ASEAN+3 basis which in effect meant that Indonesia was not going to join the ASEAN+3 to be held that day.

There were more gasps and murmurs around the room which only continued to build up when Thaksin and Estrada lifted their hands up looking very ready to join Indonesia. Bolkiah, sitting in the chairman’s position, suspended proceedings before things got out of hand. With the assistance of Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong, the situation was salvaged with a solution that was considered face-saving: ASEAN+3 would be attended by all participating nations’ ministers of foreign affairs rather than heads of state and heads of government. The ASEAN+3 meeting that resulted was an awkward affair with Indonesia trying its best to be courteous and China under instructions from Zhu not to speak out against anything to avoid “playing into Indonesia’s hands”.

While the ministers of foreign affairs have their meeting, Try met with Thaksin, Estrada, Luong and Prime Minister of Laos Bounnhang Vorachith. The five-way meeting produced an MoU agreeing to a Conference of Cooperation to be held in Surabaya within 3 months.

That was how the 2001 ASEAN Summit ended. There was a photo-op for all 10 ASEAN Leaders, the smiles of Try and the other ASEAN Leaders not really telling the story about what kind of a summit it was. There was a growing consensus as the media filed their reports and the diplomats got ready to fly home, however, that this would be remembered as the ASEAN Summit “Indonesia threw its weight around”.

That night the Presidential Airplane touched down at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport, Jakarta. Bringing home President Try Sutrisno after three weeks’ worth of travel.

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OTL the 2001 NAM Summit was due to be held in Bangladesh but then got delayed to early 2002 and then cancelled when the new government led by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia did not think that it was relevant to hold the NAM Summit.

The implementation of AFTA was suspended ITTL at the 1998 ASEAN Summit. The explanation as to why Try never noticed it at the time was because Try was not really paying attention to foreign affairs at the time (Actually, I didn't think that there would be such a big foreign affairs component to this TL as well at the time).

Keep in mind that Southeast Asia is feeling the effects of the 2001 economic downturn with Indonesia feeling the least effect (if any) on its economy. Malaysia is laying a trap for Indonesia knowing that the latter’s industry has much to go in terms of development and trying to get Indonesia to reject resuming the implementation of AFTA; looking bad in the process in front of the other ASEAN Nations. Indonesia countering by saying that it would accept resumption of AFTA’s implementation but on the condition that the ASEAN+3 is ceased. But as the Malaysians argue this is the same as accepting Indonesia’s authority in the region by letting it determine who can meet with who and who can come or can’t come.

 

[GSD310]

7th November 2001:
With the President taking a day off after his long trip, Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto and Chairwoman of PNI Megawati took center stage; both penning columns in Gatra Magazine (Tutut) and Tempo.co.id (Megawati). Both criticized the “failures” of President Try’s foreign policy with Tutut focusing on what she argued was the President’s “lack of legitimacy” in the Islamic World, the NAM and ASEAN while Megawati focused on what she saw as the President’s “pro-American policy”.

Meanwhile, at Surabaya, East Java, Vice President JB Sumarlin and Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas declared open the PKPI National Leadership Meeting. Harsudiono laughed when he was asked about what he thought about Tutut and Megawati’s criticism. He said that Tutut is failing to understand that Indonesia’s stature in the international world ,and therefore what it can do on the world stage, has progressed to a new stage under the President. Megawati was meanwhile dubbed as “confused” because in the recent past, she criticized the President as “having failed on Freeport” but that now that he has made progress, he is criticized as being “pro-American”.

8th November 2001:
Back on duty, the President met with Minister of Tourism Soeyono. Soeyono reported that the number of tourists that arrived in October was about the same as that in September so the decline had been arrested. Soeyono also said that the Department of Tourism are running advertising campaigns in the United States and Europe to encourage tourists to come to Indonesia.

Soeyono said domestically, domestic tourism is flourishing because the economy is doing well. Soeyono made particular note of infrastructure such as new toll roads playing its part. As a result of the Cipularang Toll Road being in operation for the last month, for example, Bandung has been getting record crowds from Jakarta and it’s not even the end of year holidays yet.

9th November 2001:
In a ceremony at the Presidential Palace, the President awarded the title of National Hero to Gen. (Ret.) Abdul Haris Nasution. Receiving the award on behalf of Nasution was Mrs. Johanna Nasution, the deceased’s wife.

The big news of the day came from Paris, France. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, who had gone on from Brunei to Paris after the ASEAN Summit, announced that Indonesia’s creditors have approved of Indonesia’s 10 year debt moratorium as part of the agreement reached by President Try and President of the United States John McCain at the APEC Summit.

When asked what this debt moratorium meant for Indonesia, Dorodjatun said that it meant that Indonesia can develop more at a faster rate because funds have been freed up and can be used for other purposes.

10th November 2001:
After presiding over the Heroes’ Day Comemmoration at Kalibata Heroes’ Cemetery at midnight, the President caught the train from Jakarta to Surabaya in East Java to join the PKPI National Leadership Meeting.

Now dressed in the PKPI uniform of white shirt, white pants, red tie and a red jacket like all the other participants the President joined the PKPI National Leadership Meeting where he was greeted as a hero. He joined just in time to watch Chairman of the PKPI’s National Campaign Hendropriyono begin making a presentation on the PKPI’s prospects at the 2002 Elections. After presenting about the PKPI’s election preparations and what the PKPI could expect on a province by province basis, Hendropiyono made a rather blunt assessment.

“The 2002 Elections is shaping up to be a tough competition because there is an incentive for all four political parties to throw everything they have at this election.

For the PKPI and the PKPB, the battle is on to fill in as much as possible the vacuum left behind Golkar.

For the PNI, this is a chance to run the campaign that they never got to run in 1997 when Megawati and her supporters were prevented from running for DPR seats to not say anything about anti-New Order activists wanting to get in and become part of the political process.

For the PPP, they want to exploit the fact that they’re the only “old” political party left, meaning that they have a head start in organizing a campaign as opposed to having to consolidate first the way the other three political parties has to.

And above all else, all four are looking to fill as many seats as possible in the 2003 MPR Session with their supporters.”

In a small ceremony held during that night’s dinner, Chairman of PKPI Basofi Sudirman presented the President, Sumarlin, and Chairman of DPR Harmoko with their PKPI Membership cards; in the process also identifying the President, the Vice President, and the Chairman of the DPR with the PKPI. After the President, the person to get the loudest cheers was Harmoko.

11th November 2001:
With the President in attendance, the 2001 PKPI National Leadership Meeting was brought to a close in mid-morning. Basofi, flanked by Secretary of PKPI Joyokusumo, Treasurer of PKPI Rambe Kamarulzaman, and the rest of the PKPI National Leadership Council, pledged the PKPI to “throwing every bit of its resources; human, organizational, financial and otherwise to ensure victory at the 2002 Elections as a perquisite to a successful 2003 MPR Session”.

The President came on stage to physically receive the pledge, written on an embroidered scroll, from Basofi. As he delivered a speech which was supposed to close the National Leadership Meeting, the President found himself pausing to smile. Throughout the speech, the PKPI faithful began unfurling banners with the writing “Try 2003” and posters with the President’s face and 2003 next to it. The President himself was interrupted by applause and cheers when he spoke of the Government’s record of taking the nation out of the Asian Financial Crisis and setting it on its present course of economic development.

“This is why we need you for another 5 years, Pak Try”, yelled someone from the crowd as the President paused again “Try Sutrisno for President 2003”.

“If you are serious about your intentions towards me in 2003, if the PKPI is serious about its intentions towards me”, replied Try “Then all of you here today and all PKPI members around Indonesia will do their best at the 2002 Elections in 6 months’ time.”

12th November 2001:
State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari came out of a meeting with the President to report on Indonesia’s performance in SEA Games 2001 and its failure to make it to the 2002 World Cup in Japan and Korea. Hajriyanto was asked whether he informed the President that Indonesian athletes in Malaysia received boos during the competition whenever there was an Indonesian victory. Hajriyanto said that he did and that the President “made note” of it.

Today the DPR saw the following laws passed:

*The Abolition of Domestic Violence Law which defines acts which constitutes domestic violence as well as steps that the State can take to protect and rehabilitate victims of domestic violence such as issuing restraining orders and providing access to counseling. State Minister of Female Empowerment and Children’s Welfare Khofifah Indar Parawansa said that the right to feel safe inside the home has been protected with this law.

*The Buildings Law which outlines the safety, accessibility, and security requirements of buildings as well as general rules regarding the construction, utilization, preservation, and demolition of buildings. Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar and Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman said that it was important to provide a legal framework as the construction sector gets moving again.

13th November 2001:
Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Bacelius Ruru and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat came out of a meeting with the President to announce that they had been appointed as the negotiating team with Freeport. Edi, who had been appointed as chairman of the negotiating team said that the 2% divestment will go ahead as promised by the US Administration, but that there are other details which PT Freeport Indonesia has requested to discuss. When asked what these requests were, Edi said he did not know but that the President had granted the request.

Also coming in for a meeting with the President that day were State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan, and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana. Soerjadi and Ari Sudewo reported that they have credible intelligence on the whereabouts of Jemaah Islamiyah members and are asking for orders to make their move.

“You have your orders”, said Try “Make sure to capture them alive so we can get information from them.”

14th November 2001:
In an interview with detik.com, Attorney General Soedjono C Atmonegoro said that he “absolutely” intends on prosecuting PT Timor Putra Nasional for lost government revenues as a result of the National Car Policy; the owner of PT Timor Putra Nasional, Tommy Soeharto now languishing in prison.

At ABRI Headquarters, a minor command shuffle was conducted. Minor in the sense that only 4 officers were transferred to new positions most notably Yudhoyono ally Sudi Silalahi who became Commander of the ABRI Academy and promoted to lieutenant general. It is likely that this will be the last command shuffle before the election.

15th November 2001:
At the Presidential Palace, the President swore in a batch of ambassadors and an official which included the following:

*V. Adm. (Ret.) Soedibyo Rahardjo as Ambassador to the United States
*H.R. Agung Laksono as Ambassador to the United Kingdom
*Prijono Tjiptoherijanto S.E., M.A., Ph.D as Deputy State Secretary

After the ceremony was over, Ginandjar Kartasasmita took questions about the two appointments. Regarding Soedibyo Rahardjo’s appointment, Ginandjar said that Soedibyo’s background as a naval aviator is an asset to be exploited in Indonesia-United States relationship in the near future given that President of United States John McCain was also a naval aviator.

Meanwhile, Edi said he looked forward to working to Prijono saying that the latter had experience across the bureaucracy and across various policy areas.

16th November 2001:
When the President arrived at the meeting room, it was a packed place. The Vice President, all of the cabinet ministers, all of the heads of agencies and officials such as OCDS Sugeng Subroto, the inspectors generals of development, the new Deputy State Secretary, and Deputy Cabinet Secretary Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

The first item on the agenda was a report by the President about his recent trip and the outcomes he got, focusing on the APEC, NAM, and ASEAN Summits. He said that he used these summits to gauge Indonesia’s place in the world and how other nations view Indonesia.

“I believe after three decades of a largely low-key foreign policy, other nations have become increasingly aware of us. Nations within our region have taken notice of us especially as we have opened our cards at the ASEAN Summit. In the third world, if we can use the NAM as reflecting the third world, our stance against terrorism has hurt us somewhat though this neutralized by the fact that we have are seen as an attractive economic partner.

Among the great powers, if we can use APEC as reflecting the world’s most prominent nations, we are still for the most part under the radar. The United States sees us as important in the sense that our support is worth a lot to them in their War on Terror but other than that, which I think is why we got all of our requests, but otherwise their attention is elsewhere. Russia sees us as nothing more than customer of their weapons and I’m happy to indulge these views if it helps keep us under their radar.”

When comments were invited, Sumarlin said he feels that Indonesia’s not so much under the radar anymore with the great powers and argued that China will probably take more notice of Indonesia though with the expectation that they can outmatch Indonesia (The President smiled at the last comment). Sumarlin also said that all things considered, if the economy continues as it is for the remainder of the year, Indonesia is set to be the 16th largest economy in the world in 2001 which is larger than Argentina and about as large as Russia.

Ginandjar spoke next about the vibe around ASEAN at the ASEAN Summit that just passed.

“The nations that are undecided about our proposals have that stance not so much because they want to keep their options open but because they want to see more about what we can do”, said Ginandjar “They get the argument that we’re the counterbalance to China, but they want to see if we're strong enough.”

Still discussing the trip, the President acknowledged the efforts of Minister of Trade Anthony Salim in helping to organize the trips and the cabinet gave him an applause for this. Nodding in the direction of Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris, the President said that small businesses should be encouraged to get involved.

Next it was the President’s turn to be applauded as he listed all the things which was granted by McCain in exchange for Indonesia’s support in the War on Terror. He said that the appointment of the new Ambassador of the US is to ensure that these conditions are fulfilled because some will take time as far as implementation is concerned such as the negotiations with Freeport, FAA Certification for the N-250 and the trade and investment promotion as well as trying to build a personal approach to McCain if things do not go smoothly.

Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar and Wiranto reported about what preparations for their trip to Manila and their meeting with counterparts.

At this point the cabinet meeting went on a break at which point a tumpeng rice was brought in and the cabinet sang “Happy Birthday” to the President who celebrated his 66th birthday the previous day. The President gave the top of the tumpeng rice to Sumarlin.

The second item in the agenda was next when the break was over and it was the real reason why the President assembled the meeting; amely, what to do with the 10 year debt moratorium.

Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and Mar’ie Muhammad spoke first about this. Dorodjatun explained the mechanics of the debt moratorium which was that Indonesia would not be paying debt in the next 10 years. Mar’ie said that the moratorium will take effect from the 2002/2003 Fiscal Year. He said that work has already begun for the draft budget which will be delivered by the President to the DPR in January 2002 but that as a result of this development, projects and funding which has not been approved during the budgeting process can be resubmitted again.

There was no shortage of agreement that this debt moratorium meant a faster rate of development across all areas though there was argument about where money could be spent. Wismoyo reminded all at the table of the underspending in defense over the last 3 decades, an argument that got mutterings of agreement from the military men across the table. Rachmat Witoelar wanted more money for toll roads, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja wanted it for airports and public transportation, State Minister of the Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Development Zones Jusuf Kalla wanted more funds to be sent in Eastern Indonesia’s way. Minister of Education Fakry Gaffar and Minister of Health Azrul Azwar agreed that there should be more social spending but debated whether the money should be directed towards schools or health facilities.

It fell to Sumarlin to call for order and turn the meeting into an economics seminar by asking the economists in the room for what they thought.

Governor of BI Boediono spoke first. He advised that the government needs to be prudent because while it now has more funds “to play around with”, it also means it has more capacity to circulate more money around the economy with its spending which can lead to inflation. Boediono said that inflation will be lower this year because the Rupiah is strong and because producers who would otherwise be selling to export markets in the west are selling it to the domestic market. But who knows what the situation will be next year. Boediono said that the government needs to realize the President’s aspiration of wanting Indonesian society to be more productive rather than consumptive.

Head of IBRA Bambang Subianto put his hand up. Bambang said said that the government needs to make sure to show its credibility. By that he means that the Government does not ease up on certain things simply because it has more money to play around with.

“I’ve had people who still owe their BLBI repayments ask for their own “moratoriums” because it's not like government is short of money. The same goes with trying to get people to sign up get their tax numbers and pay taxes, just because the government has more money doesn’t mean “Oh good, I don’t have to pay taxes anymore”, said Bambang “Same goes with fuel prices. If it’s time for fuel prices to go up, then it’s time for it to go up, it shouldn’t be delayed because the Government has more money.”

“I completely agree with the Head of IBRA”, began Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja “At the same time, if we’re talking about credibility our bureaucracy needs to shape up as well. As it stands, people out there already believe that 30% of the budget is lost to corruption.”

The discussion began drifting into a discussion about bureaucracy and various ministers and heads of agencies’ struggles with the bureaucracy when the President decided to bring the meeting to a close. Promising to address the issue on bureaucracy at a later date, the President agreed on the parameters laid down by Boediono, Bambang Subianto, and Sarwono regarding how the Government should handle the debt moratorium namely that the increased funds should not cause inflation, that the Government should continue with policies as usual as though it does not have extra funds to maintain credibility (ie. BLBI repayments and increasing the number of people paying taxes), and there should be improved supervision so that funds from the budget do not end up in corrupt officials' pockets.

When the meeting was over, the task of explaining the results of the meeting was given to Dorodjatun and Mar’ie Muhammad. Meanwhile another meeting got underway attended by the President, Sumarlin, Minister of Civil Service Reform Kuntoro Mangunsubroto, Edi Sudrajat, and Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman. The President said he agreed with the Minister of Agriculture Sarwono’s comments that the bureaucracy needed to shape up and instructed those in the meeting to formulate an “overarching policy” for bureaucratic reform.

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Try’s outfit at the PKPI National Leadership Council Meeting is OTL PKPI’s as can be seen worn by Sutiyoso in the following picture: https://cdns.klimg.com/merdeka.com/...-hadiri-peringatan-hut-ke-15-pkpi-001-isn.jpg

The highlight of this update is the big cabinet meeting to consolidate the results of the trip which he had just made as well as to ask the question of how to handle the debt moratorium.

The claim that “30% of all state funds are lost to corruption” originated in 1993 with Sumitro Djojohadikusumo who was a former minister of finance, minister of trade, and the father of Prabowo Subianto.

 

[GSD310]

17th November 2001:
President Try Sutrisno and First Lady Tuti Setiawati hosted a fast breaking at the Presidential Palace attended by the nation’s highest ranking officials and political elite, this being the first day of fasting month of Ramadan. In his speech, the President said that Ramadan is a time for contemplation about how to become better both as a nation and individuals.

19th November 2001:
At a joint press conference, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and Commander of ABRI Wiranto announce the capture of Jemaah Islamiyah Members Mukhlas in East Java as he was about to cross by ferry to Bali and Asmar Latin Sani in Bengkulu. Both were apprehended after authorities received credible intel about their possible activities and intentions.

Later in the day, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman and Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro said that the President has instructed them to begin drafting anti-terror legislation. Marzuki said that this was to strengthen the Government’s hand so that it does not rely exclusively on the Anti-Subversion Law.

20th November 2001:
The President met with Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas. The latter reported on progress of election preparations exactly 6 months away which was reported to be on schedule.

Harsudiono also reported that he has granted the Indonesian Young Businessmen Association (HIPMI) the permission to delay its congress until after the election. The President granted it but was curious why this organization is delaying its congress. Harsudiono told the President that something’s happening with the organizations and the President asked what was happening.

“There’s a push going on for the nation’s most prominent organizations to declare themselves neutral at the 2002 Elections and the 2003 MPR Session, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono.

“Who’s making this push?” asked Try.

“The Chairman of ICMI, Cak Nur”, replied Bakrie referring to Nurcholish Madjid “He’s been pushing the idea that because we’re in the age of multiple presidential candidates and increased odds that someone other than you can be elected, that all organizations should stay above politics so that 1) they can work with whoever’s elected president 2) those who are elected as MPR Delegates can be as neutral as possible.”

The President thought this over.

“How is this push doing?” he asked.

“It’s gaining momentum”, said Harsudiono “Because while there are organizations which have chosen to take your side such as the NU and Muhammadiyah and organizations like the Indonesian Wood Panel Association taking Tutut’s side, most are finding themselves stuck in the middle. HIPMI is one of them. For every member that Siswono is able to recruit to the PKPI another goes to the PKPB.

Also emember that normally these organizations are usually mobilized to support Golkar in the elections except that now…”

“There isn’t Golkar anymore”, completed Try.

“That’s right”, continued Harsudiono “Organizations are being lobbied by the PKPI and the PKPB to give support to them or their own members are starting to support different political parties, run for DPR for different political parties and threaten to split the organization apart. Cak Nur’s push for neutrality offered many organizations a way out.”

“Is it hostile towards us?” asked Try.

“Not as long as we approach this wisely”, replied Harsudiono.

“Keep looking into it”, said Try.

21st November 2001:
At Bakaheuni Harbour, Lampung, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim and Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja conducted a surprise inspection of the harbor catching out harbor officers asking truck drivers for “unofficial levies” if they wanted to get on the ferry and deliver their goods to Jakarta. Anthony said that it was not only a matter of smooth distribution of goods but also keeping costs down.

The President and Vice President JB Sumarlin were in a meeting when all of a sudden they made a joint visit to the Malaysian Embassy in Jakarta There they signed a condolence book and expressed their condolences at the death of Yang Dipertuan Agung Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Azis Syah, Malaysia’s Head of State. After the President and Sumarlin departed, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat said that Chairman of the DPR Harmoko will pay Indonesia’s final respects on behalf of the President.

22nd November 2001:
Just as Try was about to begin going through his paperwork, the volume of the television in his office was turned up. When he looked up, Edi was looking intently at the television. Try took a moment to look as well.

The television was broadcasting image from Kuala Lumpur courtesy of TV3. Harmoko had just arrived accompanied by his wife at the National Palace to pay his respects to the deceased Yang Dipertuan Agung. As he waved to the crowd, audible jeers and boos were heard from the gathered crowd. A Malaysian Television commentator was heard to comment “Must be the red and white flag on his car”. Harmoko disappeared inside where he shook hands with other dignitaries including Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak. When he left, the jeers and boos were heard again.

By the time the official procession left the National Palace for the Yang Dipertuan Agung’s funeral, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, who had also made the trip to Malaysia, had conveyed a formal complaint to the Malaysian Government about the way the crowds behaved towards Harmoko. Harmoko himself seem to take it all in stride, saying later that he did not hear anything.

23rd November 2001:
Ginandjar Kartasasmita emerged out of the meeting with the President. He told the gathered media that the Malaysian Government had confirmed receipt of the Indonesian Government’s formal complaint but that it does not have a formal response because it is still in a state of seven days’ national mourning. Ginandjar said that the Indonesian Government will give Malaysia that leeway.

At the DPR building, the Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono warned against the deterioration of relationship between Indonesia and Malaysia. When asked what he felt about the head of the legislative branch being treated like that by another country, Hartono said that it was “Only Harmoko” and got some laughter out of his fellow PKPB members.

24th November 2001:
At Bogor Presidential Palace, the President had a long meeting with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan, Navy Chief of Staff Indroko Sastrowiryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe, and Yun Mulyana.

Wismoyo and Ali Munsiri Rappe acted as the spokespersons of the meeting. Wismoyo said that he and Wiranto reported about their trip to Manila that week and the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand’s preparations for their joint operations against insurgents. He also said that the President has authorized them to resume procurement of weaponry on the grounds that the economy is doing better than expected.

Ali Munsiri Rappe reported that the National Air Defence Command’s 4th Air Sector Defence Command based in Biak, Irian Jaya is now operational with radar equipment to monitor Indonesia’s easternmost provinces.

26th November 2001:
Ginandjar met with the President though when he came out, he did not share what was discussed with the President.

Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, addressing a Jakarta Foreign Correspondents’ Meeting said that Indonesia’s economy in 2001, despite the global downturn, is going to remain strong and will finish strong. Dorodjatun said the decline in exports and in tourist arrivals from overseas has been offset by domestic consumption and domestic tourism, a reflection that Indonesians are doing well economically. In domestic tourism, for example Dorodjatun said that hotel rooms in Bali are nearly full with reservations and most are by domestic tourists while Bandung is shaping up for a big end of year holiday due to the Cipularang Toll Road. For the future, however, Dorodjatun said that the government could not keep relying on consumption alone and that the economy’s capacity to consume must be matched by its capacity to produce.

27th November 2001:
The President met with Harmoko in the morning and apologized to the latter that he had to go through a hostile reaction at Kuala Lumpur. Harmoko took it in stride saying that he did not hear anything but that he was somewhat distressed that his wife did to which the President asked Harmoko to convey his apologies. To the President’s surprise, Harmoko was interested to talk about something else.

“If I can say, Mr. President, we need to do more about shoring up the PKPI’s support”, said Harmoko.

“All right”, replied Try “Where are we doing wrong, Mr. Chairman?”

“You outlined your vision, your aspirations in your State Address and it’s got a good reception among Sarwono and Siswono types in the cities”, argued Harmoko “But beyond that in the villages? You need something simpler, I’ve been back to Central Java in the last three months to talk to people and they don’t understand what you mean by wanting to have a “productive rather than consumptive economy”. They say they understand what the PKPB is saying a lot more.”

“And what is the the PKPB running on?” asked Try.

“The Government doesn’t care about rural areas, the Government doesn’t care about agriculture, and the Government doesn’t care about rice farmers”, said Harmoko “In more religious areas there’s also “The Government is hostile to religion.”

28th November 2001:
In Putrajaya, Malaysia, Ginandjar Kartasasmita emerged out of a meeting with Najib Razak and Rais Yatim to hold a press conference. Ginandjar said that the “Prime Minister of Malaysia and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Malaysia conveys their regret at the reaction of the crowd towards Chairman of the DPR/MPR Harmoko”. Ginandjar expessed his thanks at the Malaysian Government and pledged to build productive relations between Indonesia and Malaysia.

The President and Edi Sudrajat watched this on the television screen at the President’s office. Both had unsatisfied looks on their faces.

“Not exactly the apology we were hoping for”, grumbled Edi.

“And yet when one’s Minister of Foreign Affairs tries to defuse a situation, one is not in a position to reject”, said Try.

29th November 2001:
The ceremony was held at the Presidential Palace, attended by officials from the Department of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries as well as from the BPN. The President was flanked by Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto and Head of BPN Jusuf Kartanegara. In these officials’ presence, the following occurred:

*The President launched the full computerization of the BPN. All BPN offices in Jakarta, in the provinces, and the regencies/municipalities will now be fully computerized in order to aid with the land registration process.

*Two regulations related to maritime affairs were signed by the President these were:

-Coordinates for Indonesia’s archipelagic baselines which outlines the extent of Indonesia’s territorial waters.

-Policies relating to the development of islands in the Indonesian archipelago designated as “outermost”, mandating the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries to lead and coordinate efforts to conduct economic, social, and infrastructure development on these outermost islands.

*The President amended Presidential Decision 44/1994 on Border Regions In Kalimantan Development Implementation Agency. He expanded the scope of the agency to also cover border regions in Irian Jaya and renamed it Management of Borders National Agency (BNPP).

In his speech, the President said that for Indonesia to lay claim to its natural resources is as important as that of utilizing and managing these national resources. He called on land registration and land certification processes to be accelerated and for the state to “show its presence” in the outermost islands.

30th November 2001:
Goldman Sachs publishes a Global Economics Paper arguing that the G7, the grouping consisting of the seven largest economies in the world, be expanded to accommodate five emerging economies whose economic weight will only increase in the future. These five economies were grouped under the acronym BRICI- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Indonesia.

In Indosiar’s Perspektif talkshow tonight, the show had a discussion about it has been four years since Try Sutrisno took office as president following President Soeharto's death on 29th November 1997

the PNI’s Eros Djarot said that while President Try is not Soeharto, he has not exactly dismantled the political system Soeharto left behind. Eros pointed to press regulations that are still in place and the fact that the President had centralized the appointment of governors in his hands. Instead of the “fiction” of governors being elected by the DPRD, the nation now has the President blatantly centralizing power in his hands by reserving for himself the power to appoint governors and reserving for the minister of home affairs the power to appoint regents and mayors.

“Pak Eros, there are currently two women, including your Chairwoman, parading around the country openly showing off their presidential ambitions”, replied Harsudiono Hartas “I think the fact that both these women and their followers still unharmed and unrestricted means we’ve made some progress under this President as far as political freedoms are concerned.

You of all people, being an Ibu Mega supporter, should know that progress has been made. Five years ago Ibu Mega was forcefully overthrown as Chairwoman of her party and her party Headquarters attacked. What about now? She’s been allowed to form a new party, been allowed to register that party to participate in the elections and nominate candidates, and precisely no harm much less intimidation has happened to her and her followers.”

---
OTL Mukhlas helped organize in the Bali Bombings, OTL Asmar Latin Sani was a suicide bomber in the 2003 Marriott Bombings.

OTL, The King of Malaysia did die on 21st November 2001 http://edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast/11/21/malaysia.king/index.html

The term BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) originated with the OTL version of this report which can be found here https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/archive/archive-pdfs/build-better-brics.pdf

And four years has passed ITTL, ladies and gents...Indonesia being a BRICI economy and the argument about how politically free Indonesia has become since Soeharto's death are some indicator as to how things have progressed.

 

[GSD310]

1st December 2001:
It may be a Saturday but the KPU was a hub of activity. With ABRI Personnel providing the security, overseen by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, and attended by all four chairmen and chairwomen of the PKPI, PKPB, PPP, and PNI as well as some supporters, Chairman of KPU HBL Mantiri presided over an event in which there were three items on the agenda.

The first item on the agenda were “housekeeping” matters but which was no less important:

*1st February 2002: The Final Candidates’ List is Published
*17th April-14th May 2002: Campaign Period
*15th-20th May 2002: Election Silence
*21st May 2002: Election Day
*22nd May-8th June 2002: Results Counting Process
*9th June 2002: Election Results Announcement
*16th June 2002: Election Results Ratification

The second item on the agenda was the drawing of the numbers; the numbers drawn determining the number under which the party logo appears on the ballot paper during the election. The result was as follows:

*Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto was the first to draw and drew number 2 on behalf of the PKPB. There were loud cheers by the PKPB supporters. 2 had been Golkar’s number on the ballot paper and the PKPB members took this to be a sign that they were the legitimate “heirs” of Golkar.

*Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil was next. He drew number 4 on behalf of the PPP. Later on, he would say that it was a good sign because the fourth principle of Pancasila is about the people and that the PPP would provide the “wisdom” spoken about in the Pancasila’s fourth principle.

*Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman, getting the third turn, proceeded to draw number 3 on behalf of the PKPI. The PKPI members who were with him cheered loudly. Soon enough, they were saying that the PKPI had drawn number “Try” instead of number “three”.

*Finally it was the turn of Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri who drew number 1 on behalf of the PNI. The PNI much as their competitors was very happy about this number, claiming that it was a sign that the PNI would be number one.

The final item on the agenda concerned the candidates. Harsudiono reported that based on the results of the examination into the candidates’ administrative requirements and intelligence screenings, he announced that the candidates submitted by all four political parties to be fit for participation at the 2002 Elections.

Mantiri then said in accordance with the Election Law, the candidates are first entered into a Provisional Candidates’ List. If there are any issues with the candidacy of certain candidates, the public can bring these issues up with the KPU or the Department of Home Affairs. Once the Provisional Candidates’ List becomes the Final Candidates’ List, no revisions may be made.

As with past practice, the chairwomen and chairmen of the political parties held a signing ceremony to make official the Provisional Candidates’ List.

3rd December 2001:
Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad and State Minister of Regional Autonomy Oemarsono came out of a three-way meeting with the President. Mar’ie and Oemarsono issued a statement saying that the 10 year debt moratorium does not lessen the provincial, regency, and municipal governments’ responsibilities to maximize revenue collection.

Saudi personnel from Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, working on Exor II in Irian Jaya, are seen transiting in Jakarta and then flying back home to Saudi Arabia. Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi said the official word from the Saudi Arabian Government was that they wanted to give these personnel an extended Eid’l Fitr Holidays.

4th December 2001:
The President landed this morning at Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi where he was welcomed by Governor of Southeast Sulawesi Laode Kaimoeddin. On the tarmac, he immediately switched to a smaller aircraft and flew to Wakatobi, Southeast Sulawesi. The President did not have to move very far for his first engagement on the runway, accompanied by Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Minister of Tourism Soeyono, and Kaimoeddin, the President inaugurated the Matahora Airport which will function as the island’s airport. As he toured the airport, Soerjadi Soedirja reported that permits have been given for Denpasar-Wakatobi Flights and Kendari-Wakatobi Flights to encourage economic activity in the island.

He was in the middle of shaking hands with locals and asking them how they were doing, answering questions from reporters along the way. Try smiled when a reporter covering the trip pointed out that with this visit, he had visited all of Indonesia’s provinces.

Flying back to Kendari, the President made a sudden appearance the city’s major tax office and was very happy to hear that people registering for tax numbers could get them within two days in accordance with government policy. He then met with the Kaimoeddin and the province’s top officials at the Governor’s Office, commenting that the province is making nice progress but could use more investment and economic activity.

The President broke his fast at the Headquarters of the Kendari Resort Military Command with the soldiers of the Sulawesi Regional Military Command and Commander of the Sulawesi Regional Military Command Bambang Darmono. With Commander of ABRI Wiranto next to him, the President told a story about how as a first lieutenant in 1962, he had been stationed at Kendari and that this was where he had first met the then-Maj. Gen. Soeharto.

5th December 2001:
From Kendari, the President and his entourage flew to Denpasar, Bali. Governor of Bali I Made Bandem greeted the President as he got off the plane. His first stop was Nusa Dua. Making surprise stops at the various 5-star hotels there and catching hotel patrons and management alike unwares, the President found that the hotels were all fully-booked for the coming Eid’l Fitr and Christmas holiday period. The general managers said that whilst there is a drop in tourists from the United States, this has been more than offset by domestic tourists.

Talking and shaking hands with the domestic tourists in the hotel’s lobbies, the President found that they, coming from different fields, have had “two great years in 2000 and 2001”. A few admitted that this was the first time they were staying at Nusa Dua, saying that their living standards have improved in the last 2-3 years.

From Denpasar, the President and his entourage headed northwest to Gilimanuk Harbour. Together with Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, the President inspected the security measures that the regional authorities would take ahead of the holiday period. Commander of the Nusa Tenggara Regional Military Command Moedjiono gave a briefing to the President saying that he’s in coordination with the BAKIN provincial offices.

Satisfied, the President headed for the Tampaksiring Presidential Palace. There was an awkward moment when the Presidential Motorcade turned onto a road that was filled with banners with Megawati Soekarnoputri’s face on it. Upon arrival at the palace, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat got ready to yell at someone for the choice of route but was refrained by the President.

6th December 2001:
After spending the night in Bali and an early fight the Presidential entourage’s next stop was Bandung, West Java. Accompanied by Governor of West Java Muzani Syukur, the President inspected hotels around the city. There was a general consensus from various hotel’s managements that Bandung was pulling big crowds from Jakarta ever since the Cipularang Toll Road was opened and that they were expecting bigger crowds for the end of year holidays. He then toured the city, visiting the tourism office and getting angry when hearing reports from those wanting to open hotels in the city that they have to pay “unofficial fees” to get the wheels moving.

From Bandung, traveling along Cipularang Toll Road the Presidential Entourage arrived at Sukamandi Village, Subang. The President toured the village accompanied by Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna and inspected the rice supplies and storage there.

His final event there was inaugurating the Rice Research Institute which had been recast as an institution directly responsible to the minister of agriculture rather than as part of the Department of Agriculture’s Research and Development Agency. Cooperating with the State Ministry of Research and Technology, the institute will support the development of new rice varieties to increase rice production. The direct line the institute will have to the minister of agriculture is so that it can better advance its agenda.

“The Government has not neglected rice, contrary to what others might think”, said Sarwono to the gathered press “It is always looking to increase and diversify the production of staple foods whether that be rice or sago.”

7th December 2001:
Post Friday-prayer, Megawati held a meeting with Secretary of the PNI Sutjipto, Treasurer of the PNI Laksamana Sukardi, Chairman of the PNI National Campaign Kwik Kian Gie, and her husband Taufiq Kiemas. The meeting was spent restraining Megawati from diverting campaign resources to Bengkulu where Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta has been listed as a DPR candidate there. Taufiq warned that “our man in the PKPI campaign” said that this would only playing into the PKPI’s hand and that they better focus on provinces where they have a better chance to win like Bali.

The President had a meeting with Vice President JB Sumarlin. He told the latter that tourism was going to have a big end-of-year based on what he saw despite hiccups in the dropping number of tourists. Sumarlin reported that the economy as a whole is going to have a big end-of-year holidays though there was the usual spike in basic commodities during the holiday period. Both agreed that food supplies are secure.

Sumarlin also reported about the economic policy package that the President had instructed to be worked on prior to his 3-week trip to APEC, NAM, ASEAN, and Africa. The President gave his approval to what has been done so far and told Sumarlin to set a deadline for early January 2002 to announce the package to coincide with the Draft Budget Speech.

9th December 2001:
Tutut Soeharto today inaugurated the 999th Mosque built by the YAMP in Bekasi, West Java. YAMP was a foundation established by Soeharto in 1982 to fulfill his ambition of wanting to build 999 mosques. Getting teary-eyed as she delivered her speech, Tutut said that it was a great feeling fulfilling the wishes of her father.

“Fulfill Pak Harto’s wishes by being our next president, Mbak!” said someone in the crowd as cheers of “Tutut for President! Tutut for President!” broke out.

10th December 2001:
Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar, Meutia Hatta, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat, Vice Presidential Secretary Jusuf Anwar, and Deputy State Secretary Prijono Tjiptoherijanto came out of a meeting with the President and Vice President to announce that they had been appointed to the National Social Security System Preparation Committee which was to be chaired by Sumarlin.

Chairman of ICMI Nurcholish Madjid held a fast-breaking which was attended by the chairmen of the nation’s most prominent organizations including Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie, Chairman of SPSI Bomer Pasaribu, Chairman of HKTI Wardoyo, Chairman of the Indonesian Hotels and Restaurants Association (PHRI) Jakob Oetama, Chairman of the Indonesian Cooperatives Council (Dekopin) Sri Edi Swasono, and many others. The fast-breaking event got the attention of the nation’s media but the attendees refused to disclose what they discussed.

11th December 2001:
State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Harsudiono Hartas, Mar’ie Muhammad, and Djiteng Marsudi came out of their meeting with PT. Freeport Indonesia looking ashen-faced. When they reported to the President, he sighed and facepalmed saying that Freeport is “keeping its end of the deal but they just want to embarrass us in the process”.

The reason for the four ministers’ grim expressions became clear when CEO of PT Freeport Indonesia Adrianto Machrabie held a press conference. Expressing that Freeport was more than happy to divest of its shares to Indonesian entities, Adrianto said that there were some issues that Freeport wanted to settle before it does so. Adrianto added that Freeport is requesting that the government will guarantee that Freeport would no longer have to pay “support costs” to military and units in Irian Jaya. Denying vehemently that he was picking a fight, Adrianto said that he was merely pointing out facts.

12th December 2001:
Speaking during a television interview, Treasurer of the PNI Laksamana Sukardi said that people should not be too shocked that “such arrangements” existed and still existed between Freeport and the government. Laksamana said that these arrangements has continued to exist shows that there was no fundamental difference between previous and current governments and that the people should make their voice count at the next election.

Army Chief of Staff Luhut Panjaitan and Deputy Army Chief of Staff Endriartono Sutarto, coming out of a meeting with the President, said that the President has ordered them to conduct an internal investigation into payments that may have been made by Freeport to Army units in Irian Jaya.

13th December 2001:
The President met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Trade Anthony Salim. The two reported to the President that as of today, China is now a member of the WTO. When asked what this meant by the President, Anthony said that it means China gets access to more export markets and western countries gets access to the Chinese market and that hopefully, it’s a win-win situation for everyone. Ginandjar said grimly that this caps off another great year for China which saw it launch a satellite and win the rights to host the 2008 Olympic Games.

The President asked about Taiwan. Anthony said that they will officially become WTO members on 1st January 2002.

“They’re not a card we can use right now against China, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar “The current administration is as friendly to the mainland as it can get though they’re going to get harassed every step of the way now that the Kuomintang had lost the majority in their legislature to the DPP.”

“Not at the moment, we try to play that card and we’ll get hammered”, replied the President.

After Ginandjar and Anthony left, the President talked to Edi Sudrajat about the discussion he had with Ginandjar and Anthony.

“What do you think about our position in relation to China, Mr. President?” asked Edi “Given that they just had another good year.”

Try thought deeply.

“I think we’ve got their number”, said Try causing Edi to raise an eyebrow.

“Really, Try?” asked Edi.

“There’s one thing I picked up this year during my trips: we’re not going to get the support of Southeast Asia or nations immediately within our region’s proximity by imposing Indonesia’s will on it”, said Try “Because simply put we’re not at that position yet politically, economically, militarily or otherwise.”

“That much is true”, said Edi.

“But our region will fall in line if they see that by siding with us, they can balance China’s increasing strength”, argued Try “Why do you think Thailand and the Philippines want to hold hands with us? Why do you think Vietnam and Laos are drifting closer? There’s a potential for symbiotic mutualism here, they see us as a counterweight to China and we want to borrow their strength so that when we have to face China, we face them with the strength of 10 nations not just one.”

“China is strong, Mr. President”, said Edi “It has a foothold in Southeast Asia through Malaysia and Colombia, not to mention that it has governments friendly to it in Tokyo and Taipei.”

“I don’t deny that they’re strong”, began Try “But there’s a paradox in our situation with China: we actually have an interest in them becoming stronger.”

Edi looked at Try and thought deeply about what was just said. It had been nearly 3 decades since they were in the same class at the Army Staff and Command College, but it was clear now that Try paid attention to the lectures on strategy.

“Because the stronger China gets, the stronger the argument that Southeast Asia should unite behind us becomes”, said Edi.

“Exactly”, replied Try.

“Then my question is, Mr. President”, said Edi “Wouldn’t it be in Beijing’s interests to back off from Southeast Asia if it doesn't want to see us get stronger? Despite what President Jiang said when he met with you in October?”

“I don’t think they will, Mr. State Secretary and there are two possibilities why”, said Try “The first is they underestimate us and think that we don’t have what it takes to stand up to them whether by ourselves or with other nations in the region behind us.”

“And the second?” asked Edi.

“The second is that even if they know what’s going on, they can’t help but get involved in Southeast Asia”, explained Try “This is a nation that is seeking to be the next superpower, 10 years, 20 years from now, who knows where they’ll be as far as their power goes but the dilemma for them is this: how can they defeat the Bald Eagle across the ocean if they can’t impose their will on the Garuda in their backyard? When Beijing sees us, the Filipinos and the Thais working together, they’re going to want to do something to reassert their influence in the region.”

---
Okay, lots of things going on everything from where the political parties will appear on the ballot paper, Tutut completing her father’s goals, and Freeport trying to publicly embarrass the government.

Anybody here remember the Orba Elections? PPP number 1, Golkar number 2, and PDI number 3?

OTL Cipularang was inaugurated in 2005. ITTL it was inaugurated in October 2001 (a few updates before this) so the whole phenomenon of Bandung being packed with Jakartans happens a few years early.

An article on YAMP Foundation’s activities: https://www.republika.co.id/berita/pw6krm282/soeharto-membangun-999-masjid-di-indonesia

OTL, it took YAMP until 2009 to fulfill Soeharto’s goal of 999 mosques. ITTL, it only took until 2001 owing to better economic conditions and Soeharto (along with his family) not experiencing the same hostility that it did OTL.

Payments made from Freeport to those within the Indonesian military being referred to as “support costs” comes from https://cdn2.globalwitness.org/archive/files/import/missing docs/paying for protection.pdf

 

[GSD310]

14th December 2001:
Accompanied by Minister of Religion Quraish Shihab and Head of BAZNAS Bambang Sudibyo, President Try Sutrisno paid his zakat today at the Presidential Palace. Speaking to journalists gathered there the President encouraged those who have not paid their zakat yet to pay it through the BAZNAS.

The President then made surprise inspections, first to Gambir and then to the Senen Railway Station with Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Bacelius Ruru, and Chief of Police Yun Mulyana. The people there, carrying boxes on their shoulders, told the President that the stations have been cleaned up and ticket scalping has decreased though it is still present.

From the train stations, the President made an appearance at Soekarno-Hatta Airport. Deputy Commander of ABRI Chappy Hakim joined the President’s entourage for this, he being in charge of liaising between ABRI Headquarters and the Department of Transportation as far as airport security was concerned. The President got a briefing on security procedures such as prohibiting liquids from being brought on board the aircraft.

15th December 2001:
At a press conference today, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita said that the Government of Indonesia condemns the terrorist attack that occurred on the Indian Parliament on 13th December. He said that Indonesia’s wish is for India and Pakistan to handle the situation level-headedly but with decisiveness as far as handling the terrorists were concerned.

When asked about Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, Ginandjar said that Indonesia welcomes the overthrow of the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan and hopes that it will deal a decisive blow against Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda as it conducts its operations in Tora Bora.

16th December 2001:
Eid’l Fitr Day with the President attending Eid prayers at Istiqlal Mosque. He then made a surprise appearance at Rawamangun Bus Terminal in East Jakarta, shaking hands and chatting with people going back to their hometowns.

17th December 2001:
On the second day of Eid, the Presidential Palace held an open house for the general public and the nation’s political elite with Vice President JB Sumarlin and Second Lady Yustiana Soedarmi Sumarlin being the first to shake hands with the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati. The spotlight belonged to Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto and Chairwoman of PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri. The camera flashbulbs just could not get enough of them as they and their spouses shook hands with the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati.

The reporters and cameramen hanging about at the Presidential Palace, always ready with witticisms said that the open house was the final “Peacetime Open House” because it was after this it’s “War at the 2002 Elections and the 2003 MPR Session”.

18th December 2001:
At the PKPB National Headquarters, Tutut had a meeting attended by Secretary of the PKPB ZA Maulani, Treasurer of the PKPB Akbar Tandjung, Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto, Vice Chairman of the DPR Theo Sambuaga, and Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono.

The attendees were in a good mood as Prabowo made his report. He said that they have cut into the support for the PKPI in the last 3 months on the back of the perception that the government does not care about the rural areas and on the perception that the government is hostile towards those “of the majority religion”. For the latter, Prabowo reported that they have “Yusril Ihza Mahendra and Nur Mahmudi Ismail’s crowd” to thank.

Prabowo then pulled out a dossier entitled “PKPI’s Top Three”. When Tutut asked what it was, Prabowo said it’s his list of the three top PKPI DPR candidates that the PKPB should be on the look out for. The three were:

*Harmoko, the incumbent Chairman of the DPR. Indulging in his old habit when he was Chairman of Golkar, Harmoko had travelled around Indonesia throughout the course of the fasting month and with his ability so speak in plain-language that people in rural areas can understand, has been able to restore some of the support which the PKPI had lost in recent months.

*Meutia Farida Hatta Swasono, the Minister of Social Affairs. It was not only Soekarno and Soeharto’s names which will be used to gain votes but also Hatta’s. With the combination of her father’s name and her current status as minister, Meutia has the potential to become a powerful vote-getter. She is running for a seat in Bengkulu but is sure to be deployed to campaign everywhere.

*Slamet Effendy Yusuf, previously Indonesian Ambassador to the UK. Perceiving that the PKPB was about to play the religion card, the President had agreed to call back Slamet so that he could run for the DPR. In addition to countering the religion card the PKPB wants to play, Slamet’s unofficial role will also be to ensure the PKPI also secure some votes from the NU members, Slamet being a member of NU.

Tutut was pleased with the comprehensive report Prabowo delivered and made sure that he knew.

“At the end of all this, if all turns out well, you’re in line to be the next State Secretary”, she said.

19th December 2001:
Governor of BI Boediono and Head of IBRA Bambang Subianto stood watching as trucks carrying cash arrive at the BI Building in what had become a regular occurrence towards the end of the year, the BLBI Repayments.

Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi came out of a meeting with the President saying that they discussed various issues. Djiteng reported that the year’s highlights as far as mining was concerned was the successful renewal of Caltex’s contract in Riau in August 2001. Djiteng also said that negotiations have gotten underway between Exxon and Pertamina regarding the discovery of a crude oil and gas field at Cepu, Central Java. Lastly, Djiteng announced that the President has approved of an onshore LNG Development Scheme at Masela in Maluku.

Djiteng laughed off the idea of him being regarded as “unfriendly” in the oil and gas sector saying that he just wanted everyone to play by the same rules so that Indonesia’s natural resources can be utilized for the benefit of the Indonesian people.

20th December 2001:
The President, accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, today welcomed the Philippines’ Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo Siazon, Secretary of National Defense Orlando Mercado, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Diomedio Villanueva, and Executive Secretary Edgardo Angara.

After the meeting with the President, both delegations announced that President Try has approved of Indonesia military deployment to the Philippines to assist the Filipino Government combat Islamic insurgents within its borders. During his turn to speak, Wiranto said that Indonesia was taking its commitment seriously, announcing that ABRI will be deploying Kostrad’s 13th Infantry Brigade, and the Marine Corp’s 1st Marine Battalion with smaller units from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Police deployed on a rotational basis.

Wiranto also said that Indonesia respects that this is a Filipino issue and that overall command of operations will remain with the Armed Forces of the Philippines. At the same time to bring together the Indonesian units under one command, Wiranto said the President has approved of the formation of an Indonesian Contingent Command to be led by Col. Pramono Edhie Wibowo, who will be promoted to brigadier general.

The Filipino delegation responded warmly to Indonesia’s commitment with Siazon saying that Indonesia’s leadership and humility in the region was crucial. Mercado said that the Filipino Government is looking to begin operations early next year.

21st December 2001:
After Friday prayers, the President had a lunch meeting with Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Boediono, Edi Sudrajat, and Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman. The following were discussed:

*Boediono reported that the Rupiah was now at $1= Rp. 3,996, the first time it had dropped beyond $1= Rp. 4,000 since the first days of Try’s presidency. Boediono said that this is good for low inflation rates, saying that a stronger Rupiah means that the Rupiah is worth a lot more and can purchase more.

*Edi said that this would mean Indonesian exports are more expensive. Dorodjatun said that while this is true current situation will push Indonesian exporters to become more productive, efficient, and to aim for added value. He further added that while the aim is to increase exports, there’s no reason why Indonesia should not take advantage of the present moment by encouraging investment and business activities which would be productive and beneficial to the economy. The President said he agrees and said that Dorodjatun has made his points clear in the policies proposed in the upcoming policy package.

As an aside, the President said that due to their complementary nature, the policy package and the Draft Budget should come within days of each other. He told the meeting that what is contained in these two announcements will lay the "foundations for our future".

*Mar’ie was the last to report saying that the Department of Finance is working around the clock to work on the budget especially because that the 10 year debt moratorium has meant that spending and projects that have been previously cast aside will now need to be looked at again. Mar’ie however told the meeting that there was something which would not have to wait to be announced and the President gleefully approved it.

When the meeting was finished, Dorodjatun, Mar’ie and Boediono held a joint press conference to announce that all debt incurred from the IMF when Indonesia asked for its aid in 1997 will be settled by the end of the current financial year on 31st March 2002. Mar’ie thanked the contributions of the Indonesian people whether through their economic activities or through their paying of taxes for making this possible.

24th December 2001:
The President, together with State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Edi Sudrajat, Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman, and Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, today inaugurated Sudirman Place, a mixed use apartment and shopping center at the edge of Istora Senayan complex.

As he toured the place, President marveled at the fact that Sudirman Place was linked to the Senayan Jakarta MRT Station. Blok M Plaza was linked to the Blok M MRT Station and Hotel Indonesia now has an underground link to Bunderan HI MRT Station but this was the first time that a residential project has a direct link to the MRT. In his speech, the President said that Jakarta is rapidly becoming a modern city with modern living standards for its inhabitants and he expects other cities in Indonesia to follow suit.

26th December 2001:
The President and Tuti Setiawati visited JB Sumarlin and his wife at the Vice Presidential Palace to wish them Merry Christmas.

Returning to the Presidential Palace, the First Couple welcomed BJ Habibie and Mrs. Ainun Habibie to the Presidential Palace. They had lunch and afterwards the President gave Habibie a tour of the palace as the two ladies chatted with each other.

As they walked, Habibie asked permission to visit Germany with his wife. It was not the first time Habibie had gone on holiday to Germany during Try’s presidency, but Try got the same feeling he got when Liem Sioe Liong said he was going to move and live in Singapore. He asked if it was going to be permanent, Habibie smiled in a way that said “yes”. Try nodded in understanding.

“I am a spent force, Mr. President” explained Habibie “What I have built has been fully incorporated into your regime and I trust that you will do well with is and as far as politics goes, I’ve been dead weight in your coalition since I failed to be re-elected as Chairman of ICMI. There’s no reason why I should still be here.”

Try gave Habibie his permission, not being able to help but feel a bit sad that Habibie was leaving.

27th December 2001:
Jakarta was empty, its inhabitants having pretty much gone on holiday with the Eid’l Fitr, Christmas, and then the New Year coming close behind each other. For the President it was a time to talk with his Four Horsemen.

“Can’t really feel sorry for him, Try, you helped speed his decline along when you put the BPIS under the Department of Industry”, said Edi bluntly “But it’s a good step because you made Siswono stronger.”

“The map is changing, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “Two years ago, you formed a coalition against Tutut. You got Harmoko, Wahono, Sudharmono, and Habibie on your side but this coalition, it was formed with the purpose of countering the coalition Tutut built so that she could become the Chairwoman of Golkar and with the assumption that whatever differences you had with her, it would be settled within Golkar. The moment Golkar died, this coalition, in actuality became obsolete. It’s now just waiting for its time to end.”

“But then if this coalition is now obsolete, it needs to be replaced”, said OCDS Sugeng Subroto.

“It already is, it’s happening quiet naturally within the PKPI”, countered Harsudiono.

“How?” asked Sugeng.

“Factions”, replied Ari Sudewo “There’s factions within the PKPI.”

“Broadly speaking, there’s two factions within the PKPI”, began Harsudiono “The first one belongs to that generation of students whose demonstrations had helped unseat Soekarno’s Old Order and install Soeharto’s New Order. Others went on to become businessmen while still others became cabinet ministers for Soeharto and DPR members for Golkar. Generally speaking, they realized the shortcomings of Soeharto’s regime and are willing to criticize him from within the regime but are at the same time willing to work inside the system.”

“Sounds like a lot of people but it sounds like Sarwono and Siswono the most”, said Edi, talking about the Minister of Agriculture and the Minister of Industry.

“Is that why they’re called the Sarwono-Siswono Types?” ventured Try.

“Yes, because Sarwono and Siswono are the unofficial leaders of this faction”, said Harsudiono “Hey, how did you know that's what they're called?”

“I had a conversation with Harmoko about them”, replied Try “Or rather he talked to me about them.”

“Yes, Sarwono-Siswono Types, the Bandung Faction because both Sarwono and Siswono came from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) or if you want the simplicity of a report that a foreign embassy in Jakarta would send back home, “The Liberal Wing of the PKPI””, said Ari Sudewo “Relatively affluent people living in cities; people who have done well economically under Soeharto but think that perhaps there could be a little more political freedom and equal economic opportunity for all instead of just the cronies, these are the types that are attracted to Sarwono and Siswono.”

“It’s why the PKPB is really trying to portray themselves as populists and trying to appeal to those in rural areas”, said Harsudiono.

“And what about the other faction?” asked Edi.

“It consists of a combination of retired ABRI officers, both from Soeharto’s generation of officers and ours and which have not declared for Tutut and the PKPB, as well as members of the FKPPI which had not declared for Tutut”, replied Harsudiono “Unlike the Sarwono-Siswono Types, they have more reverence for Soeharto, it’s just the case that they see Try, rather than Tutut, as Soeharto’s legitimate successor.”

“”The Conservative Wing of the PKPI” as the foreign embassies call it”, said Ari Sudewo “More informally, they’re known as the Sane Soehartoists.”

“What? They call themselves that?” asked Try.

“Well, they don’t like that nickname but they haven’t exactly come up with an alternative name so they have to live with that for now”, shrugged Ari “The Minister of Defense and Security is considered to be their leader.”

“So now that we have factions, what do we do with them?” asked Edi “How do we manage them?”

“That’s a question for the future” said Harsudiono “Right now, whether they be a Sarwono-Siswono Type or Sane Soehartoist, we need to make sure as many of them as possible makes it into the next DPR so that they can fight on Try’s behalf and that means winning the election.”

---
The mixed use building that Try inaugurates is ITTL’s FX Sudirman which in OTL was actually known as Sudirman Place for a few years.

I'd been wanting to introduce the factional dynamics in the PKPI for a while now but had not found the right spot introduce it. Other factions in groupings within the PKPI will be explored further in the future but as said above "broadly speaking" there is a "liberal" and "conservative" faction in the PKPI.

OTL, while Soeharto was still president, Sarwono and Siswono never combined with each other to form a faction but they play a role where they are critics of the New Order from around the cabinet table. Often times they make comments about the New Order that ministers would not make. Siswono is on the record as favoring term limits for presidents after Soeharto, or example. (Not sure when this will come into play but for the moment ITTL, we are operating in an environment without term limits. (https://jawawa.id/newsitem/limit-presidential-term-after-soeharto-siswono-14478932970).

After Soeharto fell from power, Sarwono and Siswono joined OTL Try and Edi to form OTL's PKPI.

ITTL Sarwono and Siswono siding with Try as well as Meutia supporting Try is a nod towards OTL PKPI.

Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar is the head of the PKPI's "conservative faction". ITTL, he would've been an important figure in adding credibility to Try's claim to the presidency because he was Soeharto's brother-in-law. OTL, for whatever reason, he was not close and trusted enough by Soeharto to advance beyond Army Chief of Staff.

 

[GSD310]

28th December 2001:
The country continues to be on holiday mode, now gearing up for the New Year after the Eid’l Fitr and Christmas were celebrated in close succession. At Bandung where holidaymakers continue to gather, an exclusive meeting was held at Sheraton Bandung. It was attended by those who made up the leadership of Liberal Wing of the PKPI. Those in attendance were:

*Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja
*Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo
*Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar
*Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman
*Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra
*Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris
*Head of Bappedal Erna Witoelar

Their special guests were all 4 members of the President’s inner circle, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. They were invited along so that there would not be any misunderstanding with the Palace.

The discussion showed the areas of concerns of this faction. Marzuki asked that new anti-corruption laws be put on the agenda, they said that while the government has placed Tommy Soeharto behind bars, the current Anti-Corruption Law itself is inadequate and this was why Tommy will be leaving prison soon.

Oka Mahendra said that the current Press Law and press policies are also outdated, saying that the press has had more freedom in the last few years but that laws and policies need to reflect this.

Erna Witoelar asked that the environment has its own ministry so that there is more focus on environmental policy as an individual area of policy. Fahmi Idris asked for small business to also get its own ministry to allow for more focus to it. Siswono strongly agreed, saying that small and medium enterprises tended to support the government because it wanted to eliminate economic distortions.

Then came the political discussion. Siswono asked about the subject of presidential term limits and how many, including himself had advocated a maximum of two terms for presidents after Soeharto.

Harsudiono asked for some leniency. There are those in the legal field who see the current term as the President’s second term, the first term being the first 3 months after he had succeeded from Soeharto. Suddenly imposing term limits would mean that the President is not eligible for another term. Siswono backed down though he asked that the topic be revisited “further down the road”.

All present expressed their support for another term for President Try Sutrisno and said that they extend the same support for Vice President JB Sumarlin saying that the latter could claim to be the architect of Indonesia’s economic recovery.

29th December 2001:
The President spent the day on the phones accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Edi Sudrajat. In the fallout of the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament two weeks prior and the realization that terrorists had originated from Pakistan, India had begun mobilizing its forces to its borders with Pakistan. In turn, Pakistan had also mobilized. The President urged President/Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf to show “real resolution” in dealing with terrorists. In a separate phonecall, the President urged Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee to give due acknowledgement to Musharraf if action is taken.

While Ginandjar gave his press conference after the President had made his phonecalls, Edi met with Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman in his room. The latter said that “We” too would like to discuss matters with the Four Horsemen.

“Speak of the devil and they shall appear”, muttered Edi after Hayono left “Speak of the factions and now we find ourselves meeting them.”

30th December 2001:
The President’s Four Horsemen met with the Conservative wing of the PKPI at Balai Sudirman, a function center in Jakarta. Attending on behalf of the said faction were:

*Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar
*Minister of Tourism Soeyono
*State Minister of National Security Soerjadi
*State Minister of Research and Technology Indra Bambang Utoyo
*Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman
*Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman

The conversation reflected the faction’s bent and political tendencies. The general consensus was that at a general level path set down by Soeharto had been correct and that only “minor modifications” rather than “fundamental change” was necessary to the political system. There was a pledge for the support for campaign against the Extreme Right and that defense spending should be increased but not the kind of suggestions for improvements from the other crowd. Much as the other crowd, however, there was an expression or support for another term for the President and Vice President.

It was a much shorter meeting than the one at Bandung. What made it long was the dinner table conversation, filled with old military stories given that those in attendance were either retired officers or sons of retired officers.

In the car after the dinner, Edi said that the conversation was perhaps more substantial and lively in the other meeting but Harsudiono told him not to think of it like that.

“We need both groups”, said Harsudiono “The Sarwono-Siswono Types are important for Try’s popularity, politically sophisticated people who might otherwise dismiss Try as another authoritarian military leader are attracted to him and more willing to vote for the PKPI because Sarwono and Siswono are strong supporters of him.”

“And the Sane Soehartoists?” asked Sugeng.

“They’re important for Try’s legitimacy”, explained Harsudiono “Their presence on our side says to the nation that there’s no contradiction between revering Soeharto and supporting Try and that most importantly, that Try is Soeharto’s legitimate successor.”

31st December 2001:
Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat held a joint press conference to announce the nation’s economic performance in 2001:

*Dorodjatun reported that the world economy faced a slowdown in 2001 as a result of the United States’ effort to soft land its economy turning into a recession, the after effects of which was being felt across the world including in Indonesia’s immediate region. It is not clear whether a recovery is on the way in the United States especially after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, what is clear is that at the moment it is now Europe’s “turn” to feel the recession.

*Exports and tourists arriving into Indonesia had dropped during 2001, but domestic consumption and domestic tourism has more than picked up the slack. The strength of domestic consumption and the increase in domestic tourists has been due to the strong Rupiah in the second half of the year, meaning that consumer goods and tourist destinations have become cheaper to visit.

*Economic growth, including the projected impact of economic activity during the Eid, Christmas, and New Year holidays stands at 9.8%. Inflation is at 4.6% owing to a strong currency and goods previously marked for exports being sold on the domestic market as a result of the economic downturn overseas.

*It is the Government’s intention to take advantage of the favorable economic conditions and not let it go to waste. This is why, the Government will be announcing a series of steps designed to lay down the “foundation for the future” early in the New Year.

1st January 2002:
After spending most of the day with his family at the Presidential Palace, President Try Sutrisno met with his Four Horsemen in the evening. They reported to him about their meetings with the two factions in the last few days.

“I think they just want to show that they existed and what their priorities are”, said Ari “Nothing wrong with that.”

“As long as they don’t descend into full-on factionalism” said Harsudiono “We want the President to enjoy a broad range of support but we want them to be united behind him.”

“If you had to choose, who would you favor, Mr. President?” asked Sugeng.

Try had a faint smile.

“Neither”, Try said “If the Sarwono-Siswono Types get too strong I’ll favor the Sane Soehartoists, if the Sane Soehartoists get too strong I’ll favor the Sarwono-Siswono Types, I’ll maintain a balance.”

“Straight from Soeharto’s playbook", said Edi.

“Hey, it kept him in power for 3 decades”, added Harsudiono.

2nd January 2002:
Arriving for his first day of work, Chairman of DPR Harmoko found himself attracting a lot of attention by the press stationed at the DPR Building. The question which caught his attention concerned the existence of “factions” in the PKPI. Harmoko said that he had friends in both factions but said that he did not belong in any of them because the only faction he belonged to was the PKPI which was under the leadership of President Try Sutrisno.

The Thai Parliament approves of committing Thai military personnel, in the process joining Indonesian military personnel, in assisting the Government of the Philippines to deal with Islamic insurgents.

3rd January 2002:
Coming out of a meeting with the President, Junior Minister of Cooperatives Cacuk Sudarijanto announced that beginning from 1st April 2002, it will now be compulsory for cooperatives to undergo external audits by public accountants. When asked whether or not the Cooperatives Law allows this, Cacuk said that the government is strengthening the provision in Cooperatives Law so that cooperatives would now be required to be financially transparent and accountable to its members.

Appearing on SCTV later that day, PKPB DPR Member Nurdin Halid said that the Cooperatives Law says that cooperatives “may” ask to be externally audited by public accountants, this means that it’s up to cooperatives whether or not they undergo external audits. The government cannot force cooperatives to undergo external audit and that the Cooperatives Law already regulates supervisory mechanisms for cooperatives.

That night, the President accompanied by Edi and Harsudiono met with Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono to discuss campaign preparations. Hendropriyono reported that the PKPB continues to gain more support in rural areas and among those who suspected the government’s “anti-Islamic” attitude while the PNI are targetting those who see “Try as an extension of Soeharto” and want a more fundamental political change. The PPP are also steadily losing ground to the PKPB because it is seen as being associated with a government (not representative of Muslims), something which is straining the relationship between Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz.

The President did not respond, instead he brought the meeting to a close and asked that the presentation be repeated the next day to a “larger audience”.

“Get the factions in here tomorrow”, he told Edi and Harsudiono “Let’s see if they can make a productive contribution.”

4th January 2002:
That night, Basofi and Hendropriyono made their report to a meeting hosted by the President and attended by the two factions. Also attending the meeting were JB Sumarlin and Harmoko. Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta attended on behalf of those who did not see themselves as belonging to a faction, Governor of Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X attended on behalf of the provinces. Edi Sudrajat and Harsudiono Hartas took the notes.

Soeyono asked what were the PKPI’s chances, Hendropriyono said that the PKPI had a good chance of winning but that “we can’t lose votes”. He estimates that the PKPI would get only 40-45% of the votes.

The discussion then continued on to the rural voters. Rachmat Witoelar asked what was it that was causing the PKPI to lose ground considering that the villages had more access to electricity and sanitation. Harmoko replied that it was because of the perception that most of the economic development was going to the cities and Tutut Soeharto being able to take advantage of her father’s “village boy” image.

Not finished, Harmoko spoke about how as Chairman of Golkar he had travelled all around Indonesia. He pointed out that elections were won in rural areas rather than in factional meeting rooms such as this one. The President and Vice President listened politely but there were some frowns among those who count themselves as part of a faction. He called also or the government’s achievements in rural development to be better promoted, a suggestion which the President called on Basofi to listen to.

The next issue was the religious vote. There was a general agreement not to “fight fire wth fire” with Harmoko again piping in that votes lost to those who saw the government as “anti-Islam” could be compensated for if they succeeded in stopping the leakage in the rural vote.

But it all came down to numbers. Golkar had never seen it vote drop below 62% and now the people in the room, most of whom had been Golkar members, were gobsmacked when told by Hendropriyono that the PKPI’s vote will be in the 40-45% range.

When the discussion returned to this matter, there was widespread agreement that the PKPI could not just play defense and try not to lose votes until May 2002. The question was, what is the next step forward? There was silence. Then Sarwono Kusumaatmadja put his hand up and the President nodded in his direction.

“You need to renew your coalition with the PPP, Mr. President”, he said “As it stands, the deal you have now with the PPP expires at the end of the current presidential term, we need this coalition to be extended beyond the current term.”

There were a lot of shifting in seats but all eyes were on Sarwono now.

“Is that wise? We’re in a coalition with the PPP right now but in truth we’re only in coalition with Matori’s half of the party, Hamzah’s half is either flirting with the idea of voting for Tutut or not supporting the President’s stance on the Extreme Right”, challenged Wismoyo “Like they themselves like to say, they’re only united because they feel they can do great in the election.”

“You get no arguments from me there”, replied Sarwono “If we go into coalition with them, we should make sure we go into into coalition with the entire party.”

“The President’s coalition is broad enough as it is, he enjoys support from a wide cross-section of society”, added Harmoko.

“This is all well and good, Mr. Chairman, but it doesn’t translate to seats” argued Sarwono “And as we just heard, we’re going to get nowhere the amount of seats that Golkar got in past elections.”

Silence in the room.

“Remember as well that the DPR constitutes half of the MPR, the more seats we control in the DPR, the more seats we control in the MPR”, said Sarwono “And the more we control in the MPR, the better our chances are of re-electing the President.”

Sarwono sat back down in his seat. The next to speak was Indra Bambang Utoyo.

“I must agree with what Pak Sarwono is saying”, he said “The PKPI is not Golkar. We don’t have the civil service or organizations like the HKTI or the PGRI to mobilize…or for that matter the FKPPI; organizations like these want to keep their neutrality as we get closer to the election and the 2003 MPR Session. Individuals can cast their lot, but not organizations.”

“They’re being mobilized by the Chairman of ICMI”, said Sumarlin “If the rumors are true, a petition is being circulated in which they want to declare their neutrality in the political battles ahead..”

“It’s true, Mr. Vice President”, said Meutia “My husband has signed the petition on behalf of the Dekopin during the enf of year holidays and it’s still going around.”

“This is what comes to mind for me when I heard the Minister of Agriculture’s suggestion”, said Indra “If we can’t mobilize the organizations, we should at least cooperate with the PPP so that regardless of what happens out there, we still hold the cards as far as the political process goes.”

“What are we looking at in terms of the timing to renew the coalition with the PPP?’ asked Try.

“As soon as possible”, said Sarwono “If we wait until after the election, if we do worst than expected and they do much better, we have to give them a lot of concessions because we’ll be in a position where we need them even more.”

There was silence in the room as everyone looked at the President for response.

“I’m in favor of the idea, provided that the entire PPP can be persuaded to give their support”, he said at last.

“The 29th Anniversary of the PPP’s establishment is tomorrow”, reminded Edi “And you are set to attend, Mr. President.”

“Tell the Chairman of the PPP that I’d like a one-on-one tomorrow”, said the President to Harsudiono.

“I’m sure he’ll oblige”, said Harsudiono.

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Something I started prior to my injury and which I completed with one hand because I can’t help myself.

We get a closer look at the two factions mentioned in the previous update.

The 1992 Cooperatives Law and Article 40 which states that that cooperatives “may” ask to be externally audited can be found here https://jdih.kemenkeu.go.id/fulltext/1992/25TAHUN~1992UU.htm

Golkar’s OTL Election results were 62% (1971), 62% (1977), 64% (1982), 73% (1987), 68% (1992), and 74% (1997). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golkar

HKTI is the Farmers’ Association, PGRI is the Teachers’ Association, and the FKPPI is the Children of Retired Officers’ Association. Normally they’re mobilized to support Golkar during elections. Keep an eye on this “the organizations and their petition” storyline.

ITTL and “off-screen”, Meutia Hatta’s husband, Sri Edi Swasono continues as Chairman of the Indonesian Cooperatives Council rather than resign. He’s due for an appearance in the TL, I should think.