Approaching the "May 2002 Around the World update" on my 5th rereading (yes, i'm either forgetful or just that engrossed in your TL) and just realized that with the TL has already on May 2003, is the March 2003 coup of President Patassé of the Central African Republic still succeeded like OTL because Gaddafi already prepared the ISA on their journey home, or Patassé is actually saved again?
Funny you should ask that...
19th May 2003:
After arriving late the previous night at Manama, Bahrain, President Try Sutrisno and his delegation made their way to the Al-Sakhir Palace in the morning. There, he was given a welcome ceremony, including a sword ceremony by King of Bahrain Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. Try and Hamad hugged each other very effusively.
There was another ceremony to attend to immediately after this one. A teleconference had been set up, linking Bahrain with Indonesia and on the screen, those in attendance could see Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Public Works Budi Susilo Soepandji, Head of the BKPM Mari Elka Pangestu, Governor of Jakarta Endriartono Sutarto, and Governor of West Java Muzani Syukur. Thus was a ceremony under way when Try together with Hamad inaugurated the Cilincing-Cibitung Toll Road and the Serpong-Parung Toll Road, projects which Hamad had signed on to invest in the last time Try visited Bahrain in November 2000.
After a mid-morning banquet, Try and Hamad disappeared into a room to have their private meeting. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Hamad was accompanied by Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa.
Try praised Hamad for Bahrain’s involvement in Operation Enduring Freedom saying that actually getting involved in Afghanistan was a line he could not cross. Hamad returned the compliment saying that without Indonesia’s stance against extremism, the War on Terror would not progress. Hamad expressed discontent with both the United States and Russia at the moment; the United States for moving too quickly onto Yugoslavia while Osama Bin Laden is still out there and Russia, in a bid to build friends in the Islamic world, said that Islamic nations should not feel pressured to do anything in the wake of 9/11. Try said that this just gives an excuse for those who are not serious about taking action to not take action to which all those present agreed.
There was much joking about how Russia trying to seem more friendly did not help them because there was a lot of support for the intervention in Yugoslavia among the Islamic world. On a more serious note, however, Marzuki and Khalifa both agreed that so long as the War On Terror is not over, “our nations will still be part of the equation”. Khalifa said that in addition to wanting Indonesia to keep quiet or stay out from taking any stand on Yugoslavia, the continuing need for support in the War of Terror was the reasoning behind the military aid sent by the United States and the United Kingdom Indonesia’s way earlier in the year.
Marzuki asked about how the United Kingdom was doing, given Bahrain’s close relations to it. Khalifa said that the United Kingdom’s now under Prime Minister Gordon Brown after Blair took the British Parliament’s refusal to authorize military intervention as a vote of no-confidence and resigned. From what news he has gathered, the United Kingdom, because it has not participated in the intervention in Yugoslavia is wanting to make itself useful and wanting to counter, in particular, Australia’s increased influence over the United States in that coalition. Edi softly kicked Try’s foot at this.
By and large, Try and Hamad agreed on a lot of issues. The only issue where Hamad was a bit ambivalent was Try becoming close to Iran, half-jokingly saying that he tended to agree with Saudi Arabia on Iran but added more seriously that if Iran could be more constructive that this would be all right. It was late afternoon when Hamad escorted Try to the Bahrain International Airport and for the latter to depart to his next destination.
“We are nowhere near part of the inner circle of that coalition and so we must take advantage of any tensions or internal divisions”, Marzuki was heard saying “That’s the gap we must exploit to advance Indonesia’s interests.”
20th May 2003:
Arriving in the evening again the previous night at Harare, Zimbabwe, the morning saw Try and his delegation depart for the State House. There he was given an official welcome ceremony by President of Zimbabwe Emmerson Mnagagwa before they disappeared inside for their meeting.
Inside Try was accompanied by Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Defense and Security Wiranto, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Cacuk Sudarijanto, and Edi Sudrajat. Mnangagwa was accompanied by Prime Minister Simba Makoni, Minister of Foreign Affairs Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, Minister of Finance Herbert Murerwa, Minister of Defence Sydney Sekaramayi, Minister of Industry and International Trade Samuel Mumbengegwi, and Minister of Transport and Communications Joice Mujuru.
The meeting produced the following agreements:
*Dorodjatun and Murerwa signed an agreement to establish an Economic Cooperation Commission between the two countries and for Indonesia to send a business delegation to Zimbabwe to explore investment opportunities.
*Anthony and Samuel Mumbengegwi signed an MoU committing the Zimbabwean government to facilitate importers seeking to import Indonesian FMCGs.
*Cacuk Sudarijanto and Joice Mujuru signed an agreement whereby Zimbabwe will purchase INKA trains to help revitalize Zimbabwe’s railway system.
*Wiranto and Sekaramayi signed agreement where Indonesia will purchase all 12 of Zimbabwe’s BAE Hawks Aircraft.
Try and Mnangagwa held a joint press conference afterwards. The BAE Hawks got some attention, with Mnangagwa saying that the government’s priority was economic recovery after they had withdrawn from the war in Congo and that this included cutting defense spending, saying that Zimbabwe was struggling with spare parts and maintenance and had to prioritize its economy.
Try got a question from a BBC Journalist about whether he saw similarities between himself and Mnagagwa, both successors of older men who had been mentors, and both having their legitimacy questioned by someone related to their predecessor; Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto and former First Lady Grace Mugabe in the case of Mnangagwa. Try diplomatically Indonesia and Zimbabwe had both their respective succession mechanisms and that if this is mechanism is adhered to, then the succession should be called legitimate.
“But I understand now why I have and am getting along so well with President Mnangagwa”, Try said to Mnangagwa’s laughter.
The late afternoon saw Try held a meet and greet with Indonesians who are living in Zimbabwe as well as the families of the Indonesian Embassy in Zimbabwe’s staff. This being National Awakening Day, Try told those present to be proud of themselves for by being in Zimbabwe and in Africa they are helping with the nation’s national awakening and that one day the world will take notice of Indonesia.
The day ended at the State House where Mnangagwa held a State Banquet in Try’s honor; both men toasting their respective nations’ diplomatic relationship with each other.
21st May 2003:
The day began with Tru and First Lady Tuti Setiawati making a quick visit to Makavisi Woodland where they had a look at the animals. From there, after stopping at their hotel to get changed, Try went to Zimbabwe House where he, accompanied by Dorodjatun, met with Makoni. Try allowed Dorodjatun to do most of the speaking with Makoni. Hearing about Makoni saying that defense spending had to be slashed so that more funds are available for economic development, Try was reminded of Indonesia’s own experience.
From there, there was an event where Try and Mnangagwa unveiling a supermarket billboard in the middle of Harare advertising the availability of Indonesian FMCGs in the city. The two were then seen touring a supermarket and looking at various Indonesian FMCGs, Mnangagwa saying that he has taken a liking to Kopiko.
Try and Mnangagwa had lunch together and then began talking about various issues. Mnangagwa said that Zimbabwe still had some long way to go economically to develop though Try consoled him by saying Zimbabwe did not wait until inflation was 650% before it tried to economic recovery and that it was the right thing pulling out of the Second Congo War. Try agreed with Mnangagwa that they both wanted to utilize the G-15 to foster economic cooperation.
Try asked Mnangagwa about the Second Congo War. Mnangagwa said that it was a mess with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Angola, and Namibia on one side with Rwanda and Uganda on the other side. If the Angolans manage to score victory in their civil war, they will be more focused in helping their side of the war to victory. Rwanda and Uganda are holding on but all the while failing to get others on their side and getting the United States to assist them now that the latter are distracted by 9/11 and now, the intervention in Yugoslavia. Mnangagwa said that China and Russia will be the beneficiary if the DRC emerges victorious.
Try’s afternoon itinerary took him to the National Heroes’ Acre where he paid his respects at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and visited the museum there.
22nd May 2003:
After one final visit in the morning to the State House to farewell Mnangagwa, Try and his delegation headed to Harare International Airport and departure to their next destination. It was around noon when the Presidential Airplane landed at Leon-Mba International Airport, Libreville, Gabon. On the tarmac there was much handshakes and hugs from President of Gabon Omar Bongo. After a short ceremony, Try and Bongo rode in a car together to the Palais du Bord de Mer, a very luxurious presidential palace.
There was another ceremony there with Try and Bongo making speeches about each other. Bongo said that it was a happy occasion to at last meet a friend he had only “encountered on written pages” while Try said that he will never forget Gabon’s support “even though we had never met, for Indonesia’s territorial integrity”.
Business was conducted in a meeting between Try and Bongo. Try was accompanied by Marzuki, Dorodjatun, Minister of Mining and Energy Awang Faroek Ishak, Cacuk Sudarijanto and Edi while Bongo was accompanied by Prime Minister Jean Francois Ntoutoume Emane, Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean Ping, Minister of Finance and Economy Paul Toungoui, and Minister of Mines, Energy, and Oil Richard Auguste Onouviet. The meeting agreed on the following:
*Awang Faroek Ishak and Onouviet signed an agreement where Indonesia would import crude oil from Gabon.
*Cacuk and Toungoui signed an agreement making official a Gabonese purchase of 2 units of CN-235s.
There were a lot of smiles when the agreement to make the import of crude oil official. Bongo said Gabon’s prosperity is directly linked with that one of the world’s five major emerging economies and, as an aside, said that he could now look at this father-in-law, who had concluded a similar deal with China, in the eye. Try smiled, other than Gabonese petroleum, meeting Bongo’s father-in-law was the reason that he was in Gabon.
23rd May 2003:
At the Leon-Mba International Airport, Bongo welcomed the arrival of his father-in-law who was none other than President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou-Nguesso. After a welcome ceremony, Sassou-Nguesso was escorted to the airport’s VIP rooms where he was introduced to Try. There was a lot of cameras snapping and then Try sat down to talk with the two African presidents.
Amongst talk about how Bongo had “said a lot about you”, Try and Sassou-Nguesso talked about each other’s countries and agreed that the two nations should establish diplomatic relations with each other.
Sassou-Nguesso was the first to broach the topic Try wanted to talk about, enquiring about the Acehnese. Try talked about Aceh, how Acehnese secessionists had been trained in Libya in the past, and how it was part of Indonesia, before asking whether it was true that they had been in Africa in recent times.
“Two years ago now, there was a coup attempt in the Central African Republic, just north of where my country is, against President Ange-Felix Patasse”, Sassou-Nguesso said “The coup failed and to ensure that such future attempts also fail, President Patasse’s armed forces were reinforced by his ally, Colonel Gaddafi in Libya. The Libyan contingent included Acehnese personnel. There were more coup attempts against President Patasse in the past 2 years but these have failed; in part because President Patasse imprisoned Gen. Bozize, the man widely seen as the leader of the anti-Patasse forces; in part because the Acehnese are formidable soldiers to have in a skirmish.
Apparently the message from Gaddafi was that they should be the first deployed in a situation because “they need the practice” but judging by the stories of how they have helped beaten back coup attempts, they are ready for whatever it is they are being prepared for. There were a few rotations with different units returning to Libya and other units coming in to Central Africa, but they were Acehnese…”
“If I may, Mr. President”, interrupted Bongo “Perhaps our guest would like to know what your sources are.”
“Ah yes”, continued Sassou-Nguesso “My sympathies in this predicament lies with Bozize and I have people in his camp that provide me with information.”
“Are the Acehnese still in Central Africa, Mr. President”, asked Try.
“Well, Mr. President, the most recent information I’ve got from Central Africa, at least from Bozize’s supporters, is that a coup attempt against Patasse is being contemplated”, replied Sassou-Nguesso “Precisely because they’re not there anymore. A unit has returned to Libya but another one has not been sent in its place.”
Try thought about this carefully…this was definitely information that he had come to get.
“So much for the Acehnese in Africa, now for the East Timorese in Africa”, Sassou Nguesso continued.
Try’s heart sank at this.
“To the Republic of Congo’s south is Angola and the Angolans are participants both in the war currently happening in the other Congo and their own civil war which has gone on for decades”, said Sassou-Nguesso “And the Angolans have been using East Timorese as auxiliary forces, they’re coming into Angola from Mozambique. They are recruited in Mozambique and they have been getting both training and experience from the Angolan military.”
“How strong is the Angolan military?” asked Try.
“Capable of conducting numerous regional interventions at the same time, Mr. President” replied Sassou-Nguesso “I should know…they were the ones who installed me in my current position. They only just withdrew out of my country just months ago.”
Try tried to keep his head clear.
“Are the East Timorese still in Angola, Mr. President?” asked Try.
“Well, the Angolan Civil War is not over yet” replied Sassou-Nguesso “But the East Timorese will only be on board in Angola until July…after that they are departing back to Mozambique and that is the limits of my information.”
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Stockholm, Sweden…
TVRI International beamed images of Try shaking hands with Sassou-Nguesso and hugging Bongo at the conclusion of their three-way conversation and then walking up the airplane stairs to board the Presidential Airplane.
“Do you suppose he’s aware of our existence?” asked the OPM’s Jacob Prai as he watched the screen “He’s sniffing around in the right places.”
“Only vaguely”, replied the Fretilin’s Jose Ramos Horta “They know we’re preparing something, but not precisely what...”
“They are in the dark”, interjected the GAM’s Abdullah Syafi’i “They don’t even realize we’ve been getting our men to move and take up their positions under the guise of participating in transmigration.”
“Well, they've caught on to the fact that you’re using fake ID cards”, said Prai.
“But they don’t see anything beyond that”, countered Syafi’i.
Ramos Horta watched as Try turned around at the top of the airplane stairs to wave at Bongo and Sassou-Nguesso. He smiled when he saw that there was something forced about Try’s smile and chuckled at the look on his face as he turned around to head in.
“You look worried…” said Ramos Horta “You should be worried…”
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Refer to 102 to the King of Bahrain (then Emir) investing in toll roads. The factories I’m trying to remember what factories I had in mind.
Zimbabwe dodged the hyperinflation bullet but they’re taking the same steps that early New Order is taking (ie. focusing on the economy and cutting defense spending).
On Mnangagwa and Grace Mugabe struggling for succession in OTL Zimbabwe
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41530924. I’ve always identified Mnangagwa as a “Try”, someone who inherits a third world authoritarian/illiberal/hybrid regime rather than build it.
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo are two different nations.
Between 1989 and 2009, the President of Bongo was the son-in-law of the President of the Republic of Congo
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/05/1 (check out the final sentence of the article)
On Sassou-Nguesso becoming president with the backing of Angola
https://reliefweb.int/report/angola/congo-angolan-troops-begin-pull-out
