Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[GSD310]

11th August 2001:

Edi Sudrajat Diary Entry:​

Over breakfast of chicken porridge,I accompanied the President as he listened to Basofi and Hendro make their reports about the PKPI’s campaign preparations. Basofi talked about the list of DPR candidates to be that the PKPI is formulating and the processes the would-be candidates go through as they went through initial vetting. Basofi also discussed the funds that had been raised. He noted that fundraising had been a collective effort though with Sofyan Wanandi, Aburizal Bakrie, Arifin Panigoro, and Tommy Winata leading the way mobilizing their own and their network’s funds.

Hendropriyono spoke about the nitty gritty details. He said that of all 4 political parties, the PKPI was coming last in mobilizing its campaign presence. The PKPB has Prabowo Subianto and the officers who had chosen to follow him into retirement, the PNI will be using their friends in the activist world, and the PPP has their pre-existing networks. The PKPI has presence in all 27 provinces but mobilizing has been difficult because most of the PKPI are incumbents, they’re focused on their existing jobs.

Next Hendro talked about numbers which were as follows:

*The PKPI needs to get at least 255 seats in the next DPR or 51% of the votes if it was to be a single majority (ie. without having to rely on the PPP). With ABRI’s 75 seats, this will take the PKPI to 330 seats under its control at the DPR.

*In terms of the MPR, , 87 seats are distributed to delegates representing political parties according to the amount of their election results. 51% translates to 44. Combined with ABRI’s additional 38 seats, this will take the PKPI to 412 seats under its control at the MPR.

You can’t come to Cipanas without at least enjoying the mountain view and the fresh air and we did a bit of that. The President tried out the hot water baths at this Presidential Palace in the morning. We made an appearance at lunchtime at a local restaurant to the surprise of people going on holiday from Jakarta.

But the President had work to do. Other than when he could be seen walking around the grounds of the palace and waved, the President kept out of sight from reporters, television crews, and locals alike gathered outside the gates. Most of the time he kept inside the Main Building, working on the State Address where the speech was rehearsed, edited, re-rehearsed, re-edited, rinse and repeat.

We were there too. I acted as the overall editor. Soedibyo Rahardjo looked at the political dimensions of ths speech and noted each time the President sounded “more like a PKPI member than a statesman”. Hayono Isman and Sugeng gave suggestions of what should be in or out while Ismet Herdi stood over the President’s speechwriter Djohan Effendi as the latter wrote out edits. In a first, the Vice President was represented in the writing of such a speech. Meanwhile, Jusuf Anwar and Sri Mulyani Indrawati represented the Vice President’s point of view and kept in constant contact with him.

The mountain air and the process of working on the speech seemed to energize the President though I caught him looking upset about something. When I asked he said that he still felt that he’s “failed on Freeport”. I tried to cheer him up by saying that the Government still had good news to announce as far national resources were concerned.

12th August 2001:
Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro met with the President at Cipanas Presidential Palace. When asked for what purpose did he meet with the President, by the reporters waiting outside, Soedjono said that he was holidaying in Bandung with family, Cipanas was on the way back from Bandung and he just wanted to pay his respects.

“How did the meeting go?” asked Edi to the Try as the latter watched Soedjono on television.

“The Attorney General’s reported that he’s concluded an agreement with the Austrian Government”, replied Try “It’s not going to allow us to bring back money that may be stored there by Indonesian nationals but it does allow us to request the Austrian Government to freeze bank accounts of Indonesian nationals there if they are suspected of having legal problems.”

“That suits our purposes just fine, Mr. President”, said Edi.

Chairman of PKPI Basofi Sudirman was seen holding a meeting with the PKPI’s Central Leadership Council and the Chairmen of the PKPI Provincial Branches during the evening.

13th August 2001:
The President as promised began his working week still at Cipanas, still focusing on his speech. Mid-morning Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo and Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja arrived. The two were inside for a long time before stepping outside and holding a joint press conference at the gates of the Cipanas Presidential Palace.

Siswono went first saying that he and the President spoke about the state of Indonesia’s industries at the present stage. Someone asked about AFTA and its effects on Indonesia’s industry which got Siswono to go into a long spiel. Siswono said that the implementation of AFTA was put on hold at the 1998 ASEAN Summit on account of the member nations wanting to make sure their economies recover first before opening up their nations to free trade in the region. Asked if Indonesia is ready for AFTA, Siswono said that he will leave it up for the President.

Sarwono said he reported about Indonesia’s agriculture at the present stage. He said that with the Rupiah being at a good rate, people want to consume more food like rice and meat. When asked whether this means an increase in import, Sarwono said that rice production for the year is still good and meat prices still reasonable but notes that the Government is keeping an eye on developments.

Both refused to go into what will be in the State Address saying that it was for the President to deliver.

14th August 2001:
Edi Sudrajat went to Gedung Bentol in the morning, a hut on the grounds of the Cipanas Presidential Palace. There he found the President sitting a table with a window immediately behind it. His speech was placed in a neat pile side of the table.

“Do you know that you can see the peak of Gede Mountain from this window?” asked Try.

“And that this was the desk President Soekarno used to look for inspiration and write his 17th August speeches”, continued Edi “I paid attention during the tour, Mr. President.”

Try looked around at the view.

“Can’t seem to find anything else that I would like to revise”, he commented.

“I think it means you’re finished with the speech, Mr. President, all that remains to be done is to deliver it”, replied Edi “And anyway, it’s nearly time to go home; we’re scheduled to depart after lunch but we can be on our way back to Jakarta before lunch if you’re finished.”

Try nodded.

“I sit at President Soekarno’s desk but I’m never going to be him, I work in the same office as President Soeharto’s desk but I’m not going to be him either”, Try began “Guess it’s time to be me.”

15th August 2001:
Now back in Jakarta, the President presided over a ceremony at the Presidential Palace to distribute honors and medals to the nation’s best sons and daughters. When the ceremony was over and he had finished shaking hands with the award recipients, the President found himself surrounded by reporters. Microphones and tape recorders were thrust in his face.

“What’s in my speech that’s so important that I had to go to Cipanas?” asked the President repeating a reporter’s question “I was just looking for mountain air, what’s wrong with that?”

After making his way through the media throng, the President held a cabinet meeting attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, cabinet ministers, and the heads of the agencies. When the meeting broke up, Edi Sudrajat and Hayono Isman acted as the meeting’s spokespersons, saying that the President has instructed all cabinet ministers and heads of the agencies to work hard implementing the Government’s programs for the final 18 months of its term and not to lose focus.

16th August 2001:

Cut to Liputan 6 Studio where Alfito Deannova is talking with Rizal Mallarangeng.

“Welcome back to this Special Edition of Liputan 6, just picking up your point before we went to break, Pak Rizal, you said that State Addresses are usually routine speeches…” began Alfito.

“Yes, they’re normally routine. There’s a look back at how far the nation’s progressed, some report about the nation’s economy, and then a call for the nation to capture the spirit of independence”, explained Rizal “But you know something, I think you don’t go away for a long weekend into the mountains and come back with something routine.”

“Okay, Pak Rizal”, replied Alfito “Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve just received word that we’re about to join TVRI’s broadcast, we’ll see you after the speech.”
---
Try had somehow never noticed the television cameras when he walked into the DPR building but he suddenly took notice of them now. He sat down as the national anthem finished playing and the next few minutes went by in a haze. The whack of Chairman of DPR Harmoko’s gavel as he declared the DPR Session open snapped Try out of it but he began saying silent prayers when Harmoko continued his speech from the DPR’s leadership table.

---
While her inner circle joked that the chairmanship of the DPR provided Harmoko with the opportunity to enjoy the sound of his voice, Chairwoman of PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri was deep in thought as the cameras focused on the face of DPR members and of course on the President himself.

3 years ago, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo had come to Megawati asking her to nominate a supporter to be put in the cabinet. The President is willing to recognize Megawati’s PDI as the real PDI by having her supporter as a minister. Megawati agreed out of consideration that Ari, when Chief of the ABRI Intelligence Agency in 1993, had not hindered her path to the PDI’s chairwomanship. But her, and her supporters’, worst suspicions were confirmed when she met with President Try at Bltar in June 1998 when the latter visited Soekarno’s tomb and her request that she be allowed to form a political party was not approved; she was coopted and this was contrary to the ultimate goal she had mind.

My goal is always clear, it’s why Soeharto removed me and took my Party Headquarters, thought Megawati.
---
At Cendana Street, a family watched as their deceased patriarch’s former aide-de-camp waits to be called up to deliver his 4th State Address.

“And now we arrive at today’s main agenda, the State Address to be delivered by the President of the Republic of Indonesia”, announced Harmoko “I invite the President to deliver his speech.”

The President stood up and walked to the lectern, accompanied by his two aide-de-camps. One aide-de-camp pulled out the President’s speech from a folder and placed it on the lectern. The other handed the President’s glasses.

What is it that you have up your sleeve, Mas Try? thought Chairwoman of PKPB Tutut Soeharto.

---
Try stepped up to the lectern, he was about to open his mouth when the Master of Ceremony’s voice blared over the microphone.

“All photographic reporters are now given the opportunity to take photographs”, said the MC’s voice.

Try stood at the lectern and looked around at the DPR members. The PKPI members all looked like they were trying to give him the strength to not be nervous for at least a few more seconds, the PKPB members glared at him as though challenging him, the PPP members looked curious, while the ABRI members tried to keep as much a poker face as possible. The First Lady gave him an encouraging smile when he looked over and Try forgot for a while where he was at, until at last…

“The opportunity to take photographs is over, would the reporters please return to their respective seats”, said the MC’s voice again.

Try stepped forward, took a deep breath and began delivering his speech…

---
I’m going to be off, or at least it will be a while to until I post the next chapter, which will be whenever it’s finished. I have a lot of work OTL at the moment and in the coming weeks and OTL must take precedence. The buildup to the speech is essentially to keep my enthusiasm up.

A short profile of Cipanas Presidential Palace on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cipanas_Palace

The State Address is the Indonesian equivalent of the State of the Union. Soekarno liked to deliver his on 17th August at the Independence Day flagraising ceremony in front of guests and the public gathered for the event. Soeharto preferred to deliver his in front of the DPR on 16th August. All of Soeharto’s successors have continued the practice.

Somehow they don’t do it these days, or at least I don’t recall it, but they did it when Soeharto delivering their speeches, just a few moments before the State Address begins to take pictures of the President at the lectern.

 

[Pilatypus]

Can't wait for the speech. Must be an epic one with this cliffhanger

 

[Unknown]

A side note: on September 11th, the first plane (American Airlines Flight 11) hit the World Trade Center at 8:46 a.m., New York time, which is 7:46 p.m., in Jakarta, Indonesia. This means that the first word will be reaching Indonesia at about 7:50-7:55 p.m. (probably from the Indonesian ambassador to D.C., or Indonesia's UN ambassador, who is in New York City)--it will be that a plane has crashed into the North Tower of the World Trade Center. In the first few minutes, some (I am not referring to those who already knew that planes had been hijacked) thought it was an accident (although many did suspect it was terrorism) Then, at 9:03 a.m. (8:03 p.m. in Jakarta), the second plane (United Airlines Flight 175) hit the South Tower, and it was immediately clear that it was terrorism (I suspected that from the beginning, IMO); the other attacks just cemented that...

Back to this story--waiting for the speech as well...

 

[GSD310]

A side note: on September 11th, the first plane (American Airlines Flight 11) hit the World Trade Center at 8:46 a.m., New York time, which is 7:46 p.m., in Jakarta, Indonesia. This means that the first word will be reaching Indonesia at about 7:50-7:55 p.m. (probably from the Indonesian ambassador to D.C., or Indonesia's UN ambassador, who is in New York City)--it will be that a plane has crashed into the North Tower of the World Trade Center. In the first few minutes, some (I am not referring to those who already knew that planes had been hijacked) thought it was an accident (although many did suspect it was terrorism) Then, at 9:03 a.m. (8:03 p.m. in Jakarta), the second plane (United Airlines Flight 175) hit the South Tower, and it was immediately clear that it was terrorism (I suspected that from the beginning, IMO); the other attacks just cemented that...

Back to this story--waiting for the speech as well...

At the time I didn’t think it was terrorism or that it was a movie, definitely remembered thinking what the hell kind of a nightmare is this.

Can't wait for the speech. Must be an epic one with this cliffhanger

I hope to not disappoint. Probably started to realize not long ago that this one was going to be bjg. It’s been building up slowly in the background in the last 2-3 chapters.

 

[Derff]

Update please

 

[GSD310]

Just an update. I have been busy with my OTL work. But TL-wise, Try’s speech is coming along nicely but I’ve got stuck during the foreign policy section. Why? Because this foreign policy section quickly grew to become this extremely long section.

I know I’ve debated myself about this in the thread and tried to avoid it, but it’s occurred to me I need to discuss things that have been happening around the world circa August 2000-August 2001. So what I’m going to do is expand on the last “around the world” posts because it only goes up to May 2001 and then do the countries that I did not get to do in the last “around the world” posts. As of now, I’m over North Africa.

Other than that, a lot of ideas and things have been popping into my head for this TL. So it has been good in that sense to have time to think about things. I can’t say much or I’ll spoil things.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa May August 2001:
Southeast Asia​

Malaysia:
The most positive reaction Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi got from the Sipadan Hostage rescue in September 2000 was relief. Once that washed over, the nation had to face the fact that it owed Indonesia a favor and that Badawi had put Malaysia in such a situation. Inside the cabinet, Badawi all but faced a mutiny when he told them that in exchange for saving the Sipadan hostages he had promised to join Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno in a political bloc. At last Badawi backed down on the condition that what he had promised Try would never be made public.

Badawi exited this predicament with his position weakened and his reputation for being indecisive and weak enforced. His opponents inside the government rallied around Minister of Industry and Trade Najib . As the year drew towards its final 3 months, there was talk of unseating Badawi as the Prime Minister and President of UMNO with the aim of replacing him with Najib. The removal would be on the grounds of weak leadership which in turn has led to an economy that had not fully recovered yet. It was agreed though that Badawi should be allowed to “run out of steam” on his own.

These developments were being followed from Beijing very carefully. For Najib is the son of Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Razak who had opened diplomatic relations between Malaysia and China as well as sharing a positive sentiment towards China. Najib, growing increasingly aware of Indonesia’s maneuverings in 2000, began to adopt the stance that that ASEAN member countries should implement existing commitments within ASEAN rather commit themselves to “new but uncertain ventures”. The 2000 ASEAN Unofficial Summit was considered to be a victory for Najib with news breaking out in diplomatic circles that Indonesia was not going to push the issue of Malaysia being part of its bloc.

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim watched these developments. Prior to the Sipadan Hostage rescue, he had met with Indonesia’s BJ Habibie. The two are friends and BJ Habibie made mention that it would be great that support for Indonesia’s action be given by both the Malaysian Government and Opposition alike. Anwar however was not in a position to give strong support for Indonesian action when Badawi was ambivalent towards it. Privately, he told Habibie that he was behind Try’s effort to establish a Southeast Asian Bloc.

Stagnant economic figures for 2000, brought about by the fact that Malaysia’s economy had not fully recovered yet along with the perception that Malaysia lacked stability, finally made Badawi’s position untenable. In February 2001, Badawi resigned as both Prime Minister of Malaysia and President of UMNO paving the way for Najib Razak to assume both positions.

Perhaps symbolic that he was going to take a different line to Indonesia, as Try Sutrisno and Thailand’s Thaksin signed their Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, Najib was on a visit to China where he was given a very lavish welcome by the Chinese Government. When asked what he thought on the treaty, Najib quipped that “Indonesia and Thailand has Malaysia in a pincer” but added quickly that he was joking and made some comment about how he had no problem with what was going on though all those present could not help but think that there was more than a tiny bit of seriousness in what he was saying.

Though the economy had been part of the reason why Badawi had to resign, Najib soon found himself in economic trouble. Though the signs were pointing there since he took office, Najib found himself announcing at the end of June 2001 that Malaysia was in recession all the while trying to point out that it was a consequence of the recession in the US economy. Anwar Ibrahim , not about to let Najib off that easily, began to take every opportunity he could to remind the public that the economy was in recession, that Najib had argued he could do better than Badawi economically, and that Malaysia had never recovered from the Asian Financial Crisis.

But Najib was not out of ideas. Looking at countries in the region that were struggling with the effects of the worldwide recession and the nation was doing well, he began lobbying to officials representing Southeast Asian nations that AFTA should be put back on ASEAN’s agenda and that Indonesia should take the lead on this if it wants a leadership role in the region. He wanted to put Indonesia in a position where if it rejected Malaysia’s suggestion it would look bad; rejecting an opportunity for free movement of Southeast Asian exports in the region when it was doing well for itself.

In Jakarta, Indonesia’s Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo scoffed at this, he countered that at the 1998 ASEAN Summit it was in fact Najib, then minister of industry and trade, which requested that AFTA’s implementation be suspended until all member nations had recovered from the Asian Financial Crisis; Malaysia being the Southeast Asian nation that was then doing the worst in handling the Asian Financial Crisis and not wanting to be flooded by imports.

The relationship between Malaysia and Indonesia was a complicated one by August 2001. Still close and interlinked yet with clear tension over the fact that Malaysia was not going to accept Indonesia’s effort to openly assume leadership in the region. It was very well-noted that during the G-15 Summit in May 2001, while world leaders from as far as Argentina and Egypt arrived in Jakarta a few days before the summit so they could see what Indonesia was doing right, Malaysia decided to arrive last.

If anecdotal evidence can be used as a legitimate source, tensions have in some way even spilled over to people-to-people relations. More than a few arguments and shoving matches had broken out between with Malaysians and Indonesians where the Malaysian would say that their nation was more prosperous and that all Indonesia was good for was exporting house maids but then he Indonesian would retort by saying that Indonesia was "certain to catch up" to Malaysia if Malaysia “doesn’t get out of the crisis soon”.

Singapore:
Singapore, seeing the Sipadan Hostage rescue, was also having its own internal debate about how to react. In a cabinet meeting at September 2000, Minister for Foreign Affairs Lee Hsien Loong said that the international environment being what it is, it is better for Singapore to align with and influence a regional power that wants to adopt an independent foreign policy and that right now that regional power is Indonesia. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong demurred and said that Singapore has to take into consideration how Malaysia might react.

Pushing his argument at another cabinet meeting, Goh said that Malaysia controls Singapore’s water supply, it would not do if Singapore supports Indonesia and then Malaysia is not happy about it. Over on the other end of the table, Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew sat back and thought that water would be an issue with Malaysia if Badawi fell from power. If that were to happen, Najib, backed by Beijing, would be as large an obstacle as possible to Indonesia forming a bloc. When Badawi’s time as Prime Minister of Malaysia came to an end in February 2001, Goh and the Singaporean cabinet agreed to fast track construction of its water purification plants so that Singapore could take a more “independent stance”.

Relations between Indonesia and Singapore, however, were as good as ever. Indonesia remained a large market for Singaporean snacks, drinks, and restaurants as well as a good place to invest in while the BKPM and Perumnas were respectively conducting exchanges with the Economic Development Board (EDB) and the Housing and Development Board (HDB) to study for each other. The only “cause for complaint” was the fact that there is a decline in enrollment a Singaporean universities by Indonesian students a sign that that Indonesian parents were more financially confident to send their children elsewhere under than Singapore to study.

On the same day that Malaysia announced that it was in recession, Goh also announced that Singapore was in recession. While there were bad news after bad news in the economic field, there was one piece of good news by the end of July 2001. Indonesia’s strong Rupiah meant it was cheaper for them to come to Singapore to sight-see and, as was often the case, shop. With more Indonesians coming it became very common to hear Indonesian “being spoken from one end of Orchard Road to the other” every weekend.


Philippines:
“We’re ready to do whatever he tells us to do”, said President Joseph Estrada of his stance towards Try Sutrisno. Estrada appreciated Try’s support in the campaign against Abu Sayyaf and gladly facilitated the Sipadan Hostage Rescue before turning on the might of the Armed Forces of the Philippines on the MILF. Estrada was not necessarily in the know of what Indonesia was intending to do though Try could be almost certain of support on the part of Estrada.

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo Siazon Jr. became the first official of any ASEAN country to have direct contact with the incoming US Administration, meeting with Vice President-elect George W. Bush in Washington DC in December 2000. Bush was rather brusque, telling Siazon among many other things that the incoming administration agreed with President Bill Clinton’s policy of not allowing the 10 ASEAN nations to “band together” and influence the outcome of the IMF Managing Directors’ selection process and that the new administration’s priority will be Northeast, rather than Southeast, Asia. The result of this meeting was common knowledge among Southeast Asia’s diplomatic circles by the end of 2000.

Estrada shared this concern with Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra when he visited Thailand after his visit to Indonesia in January 2001. Though both led countries who traditionally had close relations with the United States, both agreed that it seemed that the new Administration will be less concerned about Southeast Asia. Both agreed that they continued to drift close to the largest nation in the region.

When Indonesia and Thailand treaty signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in February 2001, Estrada publicly welcomed it. Privately though, he was quite disappointed and wished for something similar between Indonesia and the Philippines. In a bid to show that he could be useful, Estrada was anxious to become the first Southeast Asian leader to visit Nong Duc Manh’s Vietnam after the latter’s assumption of the general secretary’s position. In Hanoi, Estrada encouraged Nong when the latter expressed interest in closer relations with Indonesia.

Despite these dynamics, Indonesia’s relationship with an Estrada-led Philippines was secure. Having not gotten on with the Malaysian Government by wishing for their defeat the last time there was an election there, China’s building of artificial islands close to Filipino waters, and the fact that Try Sutrisno had provided strong support in suppressing the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Estrada believed that the best course of action for the Philippines was to remain close with Indonesia.
Domestically, while he was known to carry on affairs with mistresses and gamble well into the night with shady characters, Estrada continued to cultivate a populist image and was able to guide the Philippines to economic recovery. In May 2001, Estrada utilized the successes he had gained during the presidency to increase his coalition’s majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives at the mid-term elections. This was not to say that all was well in Manilla. Like most of the region, it felt a slowdown in its economy and export. The Philippines’ problem was exacerbated that Estrada was running up budget deficits to finance his populist policies throughout his first 3 years in office. Thus it was, that within weeks after giving their president an increased majority in the legislature, the Filipino populace soured on Estrada.

The Filipino system of government allowed for the president and vice president to come from different parties and not being from the same party, not to mention wanting to advocate a more fiscally responsible policy, Vice President Gloria Maccapagal Arroyo began distancing herself from the policies of Estrada’s Administration. It is thought that she had her eyes on the presidency though an election would not be held until 2004.

Brunei Darussalam:
In the face of the Sipadan Hostage Rescue, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah began to consider his position regarding Indonesia. Whilst wanting to build good personal relations with Try Sutrisno, Bolkiah wondered how to position himself and his kingdom. Consulting with Goh Chok Tong of Singapore after the APEC Summit in November 2000, Bolkiah argued that Indonesia’s always had a leadership position in the region on account of its size. Goh explained that this unofficial arrangement has been on a “First among equals basis” but that from he gathered, and especially with the international environment being what it is, Indonesia would like to assume the leadership of a bloc that was to function as an independent force in world affairs.

In April 2001, after Indonesia had temporarily ceased to import beef from Argentina, Bolkiah allowed for Indonesia to import cattle and beef from Brunei. Try Sutrisno sent Indonesian Ambassador of ASEAN I Gede Awet Sara to convey his thanks.

Thailand:
For Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the bad news as Indonesia’s Ambassador to ASEAN I Gede Awet Sara introduced himself in August 2000 was that Indonesia seemed to prioritize Malaysia over Thailand in its regional activities. I Gede Awet Sara diplomatically said that President Try wanted closer relations with Malaysia who was Indonesia’s more immediate neighbor. Thaksin and Minister of Foreign Affairs Surakiart Sathirathai knew what was going on better than most and saw the Sipadan Hostage rescue as a sign that Indonesia was making its decisive bid for leadership in the region.

It was to Thaksin’s delight when Try Sutrisno sat down with him at the ASEM Summit and explained his vision. Thaksin and Surakiart put on poker faces and said they would consult with the cabinet. Even before the meeting was over however, they realized that Try was starting to give up on Malaysia and immediately began thinking how Thailand could show its usefulness to Indonesia. Back in Bangkok, Thaksin easily got the support of the cabinet.

Thaksin further built up his position at the ASEAN Unofficial Summit, agreeing with Try Sutrisno to start negotiations for a treaty of cooperation between the two countries with said negotiations to be headed by Indonesia’s Vice President JB Sumarlin and Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister Barnhan Silpa-Archa. It took only 3 months for negotiations for a treaty to be drawn up. Try’s desire to begin constructing a bloc in Southeast Asia was matched only by Thaksin’s to establish Thailand as Indonesia’s “right hand” and this moved things along.

The other thing that moved things along was that there was a consensus within the political elite by January 2001 that what he was embarking on with Indonesia was the right thing. Opposition Leader Chuan Leekpai, the Thai Military, and the Palace either gave support to Thaksin or did not get in his way so far as his stance towards Indonesia was concerned. Thaksin’s position was bolstered by his domestic position; his expansionary economic policy was fuelling economic growth.

In February 2001, Thaksin and Try Sutrisno signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation across various areas to solidify both nations’ relationship with each other. In the months after the treaty was signed, Thaksin proved himself a strong ally, speaking out strongly against the way the United States did not respect Indonesia’s “national sensibilities” as regards Freeport, attempting to guide Cambodia (Thaksin had always gotten along well with Hun Sen) and Laos into Indonesia’s bloc, as well as requesting the Thai Navy’s help to ensure Thai fishing boats did not enter Indonesian waters. For Indonesia’s part, Indonesian Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna quietly began directing their subordinates to prioritize Thai over Vietnamese rice when it came to rice imports.

By August 2001, the Thai economy was suffering some effects of the 2001 Recession though its economy had by in large recovered from the Asian Financial Crisis.

Cambodia:
Much as Malaysia, Cambodia also showed skepticism at Indonesia’s increasing assertiveness in the region. Though thankful for Indonesia’s assistance in the peace process in Cambodia early in the 1990s, Prime Minister Hun Sen could not just ignore the fact that China was the first to acknowledge Hun Sen’s removal of Co-Prime Minister Norodom Ranariddh and that China had given more financial assistance than even the United States. When the Chinese Government showed that it was not so happy with Indonesia beginning to become more assertive, Hun Sen felt that he was not in a position to reject China’s sentiments on Indonesia.

Cambodia and China’s relationship was not without its own issues. In January 2001, Hun Sen announced that the Cambodian Government will be looking to pass a law setting up a tribunal to try members of the Khmer Rouge complicit in the genocide during Pol Pot’s regime. Over the next few months, Beijing began applying quite pressure behind the scenes on Hun Sen not to proceed with this tribunal out of worry that such a forum would highlight the fact that China had supported Pol Pot’s regime. Though the legislative process had not stopped, it remains to be seen whether Hun Sen would proceed ahead with the tribunal or bow down to Beijing’s pressure. For the moment these dynamics were noted by the Indonesian Embassy in Phnom Penh.

Hun Sen was under pressure domestically as well. In the aftermath of his removal, Ranariddh had eventually made his peace with Hun Sen and in 1998, entered into a coalition with him; 2/3 majority in the National Assembly being necessary for the formation of a government in Cambodia. Ranariddh himself became President of the National Assembly while members of his FUNCINPEC Party joined the cabinet. Seeing the pressure Hun Sen was under, Ranariddh applied his own pressure; calling for members of the Khmer Rouge to be put on trial by the end of the year. At FUNCINPEC’s National Congress in March 2001, Ranariddh said that Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and FUNCINPEC were only coalition partners “for the time being”.

Ranariddh’s signal to Hun Sen that the present political arrangements were not going to last was in part due to his still burning ambition to return to the prime ministership. But it was also in part because he saw what the dynamics in Southeast Asia was. In late June 2001, he arrived in Jakarta to visit his Indonesian counterpart, Chairman of DPR Harmoko. Ranariddh did not get to meet Try Sutrisno but seeing the thriving economy, he began to wonder that the best way to check China’s growing power and influence in Cambodia was for Cambodia to join Indonesia’s bloc.

Myanmar:
Isolated though he and his nation was, Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) Than Shwe kept abreast of the developments, adopting a “wait and see” attitude. In late September 2000, Than Shwe placed General Secretary of the National League for Democracy Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for violating travel restrictions. Amidst the international condemnation, Than Shwe noted the Indonesian Government’s official statement to this was that this was an internal matter for the Myanmar Government to settle though SPDC Secretary Khin Nyunt pointed out that China also thought that Aung San Suu Kyi was an internal matter.

In December 2000, the SPDC discussed Bush’s “rude exchange” with the Philippines’ Siazon. SPDC Secretary Khin Nyunt wondered whether or not this justified “decisively” drifting in China’s direction. Vice Chairman of the SPDC Maung Aye wondered if it was wise to become politically close given that Myanmar’s economy was already largely reliant on China’s. Khin Nyunt, thinking that Maung Aye wanted closer relations with India, countered by saying that India would not be a reliable ally.

The beginning of 2001 would see Maj. Gen. Shwe Mann promoted to the rank of lieutenant general and appointed Joint Chief of Staff for the Army, Navy, and Air Force. It was a position which placed him in charge of joint operations across the three services. More importantly the appointment was a reflection of Than Shwe’s trust in him; Shwe Mann being seen as Than Shwe’s protégé and rival to Khin Nyunt for Myanmar’s succession.

Laos:
By the end of 2000, Laos’ economy was still stagnant though cushioned somewhat by investments coming in from Indonesia and Thailand. Laos’ concerns by the end of 2000 however were more political rather than economic. March 2001 was originally scheduled to be the month where the country would hold the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) National Congress and the National Assembly’s Congress. The former would determine who would be the party leaders and the latter to determine the state leaders.

Traditionally divided between a pro-Vietnam and a pro-China faction, the LPRP as it approached its National Congress found itself divided instead between a pro-Southeast Asia and pro-China faction, considering that Vietnam is now being drawn into China’s orbit. Pro-Southeast Asia in this case meaning those wanting Laos to have closer relations with Indonesia and Thailand. Championing the pro-Southeast Asia cause was Minister of Finance Bounnhang Vourachith while Minister of Foreign Affairs Somsavat Lengsavad, who spoke Mandarin, represented the pro-China cause.

The LPRP National Congress produced a result which pleased its factions. General Secretary Khamtai Siphandone was re-elected as General Secretary of the LPRP and ranked first in the Politburo, Choummaly Sayasone ranked third, and Bounnhang Vourachith ranked fourth. At the first post-LPRP National Congress meeting and among the many other things discussed, the Politburo reaffirmed Laos’ traditional foreign policy stance of seeking balance and that with China’s strong position, balance in this regard means becoming closer with the “largest power in the Southeast Asia region”.

2 weeks after the LPRP National Congress, the Lao National Assembly met. In its sessions Khamtai Siphandone relinquished the presidency allowing Choumally Sayasone to take over as president. The real contest was over the prime ministership with Bounnhang and Somsavat contested the prime minister’s position. Bounnhang enjoyed more support and it was he who became the Prime Minister and Somsavat had to settle with the Deputy Prime Ministership.

Vietnam:
I Gede Awet Sara, when making his first courtesy call as Indonesia’s Ambassador to ASEAN to Hanoi, met with Premier Phan Van Kai in August 2000. When questioned about Vietnam’s foreign policy stance especially as regards China, Phan only said that the only way this can change is if the party line changed at the next Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) National Congress. Until there was a change in the party line, Vietnam would continue its drift into China’s orbit.

While it detested China, Vienam was vitriolic towards the US. General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) lectured President of the United States Bill Clinton when the latter visited Vietnam in November 2000 as part of his final overseas visits in the presidency. Back in Washington, President-elect John McCain vowed that though he bore Vietnam no ill personal will, he would not allow Le and Vietnam to get away with what was perceived as a humiliation of Clinton.

Vietnam’s relation with Russia was great. Though a downgraded version of Vietnam’s relation with the Soviet Union, Russia’s relationship with Vietnam was still close enough that Russia was allowed to take over the Soviet Union’s lease in at Cam Ranh Bay Naval Base. At the 2000 APEC Summit, President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov communicated to President of Vietnam Tran Duc Luong that he would like to extent Russia’s rent. But things took a turn for the worst when Primakov signed the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship with China in January 2001. Le Kha Phieu welcomed the treaty but not his opponents inside the party. The latter group were now of the opinion that Russia could no longer be relied upon.

Once the LPRP had completed its national congress all eyes turned to the other communist party the region. The VCP was filled with internal jockeying as it approached its 9th National Congress scheduled for April 2001. Le Kha Phieu looked for a re-election to a second term as the leader of his party however things did not look easy for him. Along with many other issues, the way Le had guided Vietnam into China’s orbit had not won him acclaim from the party. The man which Le’s opponents inside the party prepared to challenge him was Chairman of the National Assembly Nong Duc Manh. A moderate reformer, acceptable to all in the party, and speculated to be the illegitimate son of Ho Chi Minh, Nong was the ideal candidate.

While economic underperformance, corruption, and Le’s own desire to consolidate played their roles, the sight of Indonesia signing a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Thailand helped cause the desire to remove Le Kha Phieu within the party to go into overdrive. The General Secretary had dismissed notions that Vietnam should balance its relationship with China by also having close ties with Indonesia asking “Why should we rely on a nation that still imports its rice from us?” Nong, who organized a visit to Bangkok to coincide with Indonesia and Thailand’s treaty signing specifically so that he could meet Try Sutrisno, came back to Hanoi even more convinced that Vietnam’s foreign policy had to change and that to that end Le Kha Phieu had to be removed.

In April 2001, with days until the VCP was due to start, Vice President of China Hu Jintao came for a short 1-day informal visit. Two days afterwards, Le Kha Phieu announced that the VCP 9th National Congress has been postponed indefinitely due “to unfavorable circumstances”. Though he presented it as a decision “taken independently”, no one bought Le Kha Phieu’s explanation given the timing of Hu’s visit.

Southeast Asia was shocked at this development. Laos, also home to a Marxist-Leninist Party, was distressed that one communist party could intervene in the affairs of another, Brunei, Singapore, and Myanmar issued low-key announcements saying that this was a Vietnamese internal affair and should remain a Vietnamese internal affair though not criticizing China. Malaysia and Cambodia called on the VCP to hold a National Congress in the future for the sake of political stability rather than focusing on the delay of the congress or what country’s intervention caused it. Thailand and the Philippines issued strongly-worded condemnations against intervention in a country’s internal affairs, explicitly saying that “The People’s Republic of China and its ruling party had decisively intervened in a country’s political affairs”.

Indonesia issued a subdued “This was a matter for the Vietnamese” statement though expressing concern that the VCP’s delay was caused by the Chinese Communist Party. Though this was not as strong a statement as expected, it quickly became apparent to the diplomatic circles in Jakarta that it was deliberate. President Try Sutrisno and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, it was said, went for a low-key statement so that there was an unmistakable highlight that the most of Southeast Asia, not just Indonesia, was uncomfortable with this intervention.

As it were, it was indeed a matter for the Vietnamese to settle. With the backing of Do Moui, Le Kha Phieu’s immediate predecessor as General Secretary, the Central Committee of the VCP met in secret in May 2001 without the General Secretary’s attendance. Though Le Kha Phieu had his supporters in the room, the overwhelming majority voted for his removal, the appointment of Nong Duc Manh as acting general secretary, and the holding of a VCP National Congress as soon as possible. In much the same way as Nikita Khruschev was removed from office, Le Kha Phieu was then summoned to the meeting to be denounced and informed of the decision to remove him.

The 9th VCP National Congress was held in early June 2001, some six weeks after it was due. In his Political Report, Acting General Secretary Nong Duc Manh said that Vietnam’s foreign policy must increasingly be “regionally-based rather than based on ideological affinities”. China was represented at the congress by Chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Li Peng. Summoning the same pompousness which made him unpopular in the lead up to events at Tiananmen Square in 1989, Li Peng managed to draw jeers when he said in his address that Vietnam was following the “Chinese model of economic reform”. The National Congress unanimously voted to make Nong Duc Manh’s appointment permanent.

Over the next few months, Nong consolidated his position, in the process relinquishing his position as Chairman of the National Assembly to focus on being general secretary. Meanwhile the VCP Secretariat and the Indonesian Department of Foreign Affairs worked on organizing Nong’s visit to Jakarta with the new General Secretary of the VCP scheduled to arrive for a visit on 10th September 2001.

---
This is essentially the from the last World Circa... but redux (Ie. with more information). Now we get a clearer picture of Southeast Asia with the US caring more about Northeast Asia (making Thailand and the Philippines insecure) and China shooting itself in the foot by trying to intervene in the VCP National Congress and failing (making most of Southeast Asia feel insecure).

Pro-Indonesia: Thailand, Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam
Pro-China: Malaysia and Cambodia
Weighing Up Their Options: Singapore, Brunei, and Myanmar

 

[Derff]

Thank you for the update and hope Indonesia would be able to accelerate it's development.

 

[GSD310]

Thank you for those who have taken the time to visit. I noticed I have 50k views now.

Thank you for the update and hope Indonesia would be able to accelerate it's development.

And I certainly can't wait to get back to Indonesia and see what infrastructure projects will finish years ahead of time. Please bear with me as I go "Around the world".

Another post coming your way.

The World Circa May August 2001:
Oceania​

Papua New Guinea:
Under the steady leadership of Prime Minister Mekere Morauta, Papua New Guinea began to sort itself out though this has not been necessarily reflected in the statistics. Morauta’s economic reforms, which included privatization of some of the country’s inefficient state-owned enterprises won it plaudits from the IMF.

2000 was marked by Papua New Guinea’s increasing closeness with Indonesia. On the political front, Morauta’s Government thought that the Special Region status and all that it entailed for East Timor provided a model with which Papua New Guinea could handle the separatists in its Bougainville Province. In February 2000, Indonesian Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas visited Port Moresby and got a chance to speak in front of Morauta and the Cabinet. Harsudiono said that Indonesia’s principle in East Timor was that it was willing to concede anything but “seccession” to East Timor. On the basis of such an approach, the Morauta Government was able to strike a deal with the Bougainville Separatists in May 2000 though it was not as successful as Indonesia was with East Timor. Though the Bougainville Revolutionary Army agreed to Autonomous Region Status, the Papua New Guinea Government guaranteed that there will be a referendum for independence in 15 years.

On the economic front, 2000 saw Papua New Guinea increasingly becoming a market for Indonesian consumer goods. The most visible of these consumer products was Indomie instant noodles and Aqua mineral water. This was not to say that Indonesia and Papua New Guinea’s relationship was one-sided. The first half of 2001 would see increased traffic in the Indonesia-Papua New Guinea border owing to a road completed by Governor of Irian Jaya Jacob Pattipi as well as a deal concluded in February 2001 to increase flight frequencies from Irian Jaya to Papua New Guinea. These developments brought increased trade and tourism from Indonesia to Papua New Guinea, bringing with it some economic relief.

Though his economic-reforms were much-needed and much-lauded by the IMF and the World Bank, these reforms, and by extension Morauta himself, was not popular. In late June 2001, student and trade unions protests against privatization of state-owned enterprises turned violent prompting Morauta to put a curfew on Port Moresby. Morauta’s saving grace remained that he continued to enjoy the support of the Australian Government. Morauta’s unpopularity made him prey to political opposition inside the country. He countered this by making sure that the Parliament did not reconvene until July 2001 or 12 months before an election was due to be held; a Constitutional provision forbidding no-confidence motions against the Government 12 months before an election.

Solomon Islands:
From 1998 onwards, Solomon Islands became a center of simmering conflict between the Guadalcanal and Malaita ethnicities to the point that both ethnicities came to have militant groups. In November 1999, after a 4 month state of emergency and an accord had failed, Prime Minister Bartholomew Ulufa’alu requested military and police assistance to maintain order. Help was forthcoming, then-Prime Minister of Australia John Howard and newly elected Prime Minister of New Zealand Helen Clark committed military and police personnel from each nation’s respective Defence and Police forces. Weeks into the new millennium, in January 2000, Solomon Islands found itself playing host to a mission led jointly by Australia and New Zealand with personnel contribution from other nations in the region.

The presence of the Australian and New Zealanders helped stabilize the situation. The ethnic tensions still remained but the situation never degenerated into general chaos and Ulufa’alu was able to conduct some semblance of governance over Solomon Islands. In August 2000, Ulufa’alu visited Canberra and met the new Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello. Costello asked Ulufa’alu to begin formulating a strategy that would lead to peace in Solomon Islands and for the intervention to end. Costello did not like inheriting the intervention in Solomon Islands but found it difficult to try to find a quick exit from the situation.

Things did not work out that way. In March 2001, Ulufa’ulu obtained a fresh mandate when his Solomon Islands Alliance for Change Coalition won a majority in the nation’s elections. As he began his second term, Ulufa’ulu called for the Guadalcanal and Malaita ethnicities to sit down together and agree on terms of peace. Despite the support of the Australian and New Zealand governments, the Malaita Eagle Force, the Malaita ethnicity’s milita, refused to cooperate. Instead they called on Ulufa’ulu’s resignation, perceiving the prime minister as not being partial towards Malaitan interests despite being a Malaitan himself.

Malaita tried to hold on but the refusal of the Malaitans to sit down at the table along with stagnating economy made Ulufa’ulu’s position untenable. In late June 2001, Ulufa’ulu resigned as prime minister. His coalition and the Solomon Islands Parliament placed their confidence on Leslie Boseto, a clergyman turned parliamentarian who was then serving as Minister for Home and Cultural Affairs. Boseto became the new prime minister.

Fiji and Samoa:
In May 2000, there came the shocking news that Prime Minister Mahendra Chaudhry as well as some cabinet ministers and members of parliament were taken hostage by businessman George Speight and members of the nation’s special forces. Speight claimed to act on behalf of indigenous Fijians against Chaudhry’s multi-racial coalition, proclaimed himself prime minister, and called on President Kamisese Mara to stand aside. Mara refused to recognize this coup attempt. Acting on advice from the nation’s supreme court, Mara dismissed Chaudhry as prime minister on the grounds that the latter was incapacitated because he was taken hostage and assumed all power for himself. The advice Mara did not follow was to abrogate the constitution. When Commander of the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Frank Bainimarama and a few others pressured him to take this step, Mara refused and said that he would rather resign. This he did on 29th May 2000.

What happened next was a takeover. Bainimarama declared himself to be the Head of the Interim Military Government and abrogated the constitution. Over the next few weeks he negotiated with Speight, coming to terms with the release of Chaudhry and the other hostages in exchange for immunity from prosecution for Speight in his associates in July 2000. Bainimarama proved ruthless. Within weeks of Chaudhry’s release, Bainimarama turned around and arrested Speights and his associates. By the end of the year, he had also survived two mutinies against his regime.

Though Speight’s arrest and Chaudhry’s release was welcomed in the region, Bainimarama’s continuing hold on power raised eyebrows. He reappointed Chaudhry as prime minister but continued to hold on to his position without there being any signs that he planned to hold an election. By the end of the year, it became clear that Bainimarama was setting up a military regime.

Aside from the Commonwealth of Nations, which suspended Fiji’s membership after the coup, there were rumblings from within the Pacific Island Forums that Fiji should also be suspended most notably from Prime Minister of Samoa Tuilapea Aiono Sailele Malielagoi. Tuilapea, who had been re-elected to a second term as prime minister in March 2001, made the argument that the Pacific Islands could not tolerate a “military dictatorship” in their midst. He was persuaded against it by Prime Minister of Vanuatu Barak Sope. Sope argued that this would cause an administrative and logistical challenge given that the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat was located in Suva, Fiji’s capital. Even so, Tuilapea earned for himself the ire of Bainimarama.

In February 2001, Bainimarama hosted an Indonesian delegation led by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Commander of ABRI Wiranto. The two officials conveyed Try Sutrisno’s warm regards for Bainimarama and announced that construction on Indonesia’s Embassy Building in Suva will go ahead. Ginandjar said that Fiji has been a strong supporter of Indonesia in terms of its struggles against separatist movements in Irian Jaya and Indonesia would like consolidate this diplomatic relationship.

Vanuatu:
“In November 1999, Prime Minister Donald Kalpokas resigned and was replaced by Barak Sope. Sope in turn lost a vote of no-confidence this month and was replaced as prime minister by Edward Natapei. These three prime ministers have one thing in common: all support Irian Jaya’s secession from Indonesia”- BAKIN Update April 2001

Palau:
An island nation immediately to Indonesia’s north, Palau established diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1999. In January 2001, Thomas Remengesau Jr. was sworn in as the new President of Palau. Part of Remengesau’s platform was to become less dependent on the United States though as he himself said “this did not mean becoming close to the Chinese or the Russians”. He follows developments in Southeast Asia very closely.

New Caledonia:
“We have a sizeable Indonesian population in New Caledonia. How can we utilize that for Indonesia’s benefit in Oceania and the Pacific Islands?”

Handwritten Notes by Try Sutrisno at the end of Oceania At The End of 2000 Briefing Book by the Department of Foreign Affairs

New Zealand:
In September 2000, Chairman of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Jose Ramos Horta arrived in New Zealand to seek asylum. The New Zealand Cabinet approved of the request and allowed Horta to reside in New Zealand. More, however, was to come. 29th November 2000 saw members of the East Timorese diaspora from around the world and sympathizers come to Wellington to celebrate the 25th Anniversary of Timor Leste’s Declaration of Independence. On 7th December 2000, there was a street march to commemorate the 25th Anniversary of Indonesia’s Invasion of East Timor. Horta spoke at both events.

Despite protests from the Indonesian Government, Prime Minister Helen Clark maintained that it was the Government’s prerogative to allow Horta to reside in New Zealand and that it was not in the Government’s character to prevent gatherings from assembling. The only step Clark took to avoid further angering Indonesia was to avoid partaking in the events herself (Clark had been invited) on the advice of Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Phil Goff. Even so, the presence of Deputy Prime Minister Jim Anderton at both the 29th November and 7th December events already had enough eyebrows raising at Indonesia’s Department of Foreign Affairs.

Indonesia continued to maintain its relationship with New Zealand though it became cold. Cold enough that when it looked for emergency beef imports in March 2001, it did not deign come to New Zealand for aid. Working her way diligently through her election promises in her first 12-18 months in office, Clark joked that that what was happening between New Zealand and Indonesia and her government was normally something that happened between Indonesia and Australia.

New Zealand solidified itself as the “Timor Leste Independence Capital of the World” when large demonstrations were held in Wellington on 17th July 2001, the 25th Anniversary of Timor Leste’s Incorporation Into Indonesia. Horta spoke again, this time sharing the stage with Anderton. In response to a diplomatic protest by Indonesia, Clark issued a statement saying that freedom of expression is guaranteed in New Zealand and that “it would be contrary to New Zealand’s democratic spirit” if pro-Timor Leste demonstrations were banned.


Australia:
“Amidst me getting settled into the Prime Ministership and seeking to introduce my priorities, handling what I had inherited from Howard, and enjoying the 2000 Olympic Games, one issue that required my attention was Indonesia. Indonesia had gone through the crisis in 1997 and 1998, got out of it 1999, and posted a strong year in 2000 with 11.3% economic growth. The question was, what did this mean for Australia?

Minister for Defense Peter Reith argued that it meant Indonesia was Australia’s primary national security threat, something which he bluntly argued about in cabinet. Reith’s argument was based on a visit to Indonesia where he heard from Indonesian Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar that Indonesia had actually underspent on defense during the Soeharto years and that the Try Government is seeking to “correct” this. Reith felt that East Timor as an issue is dead and that Australia’s main concern as far Indonesia goes was whether or not Indonesia was a threat. Reith felt strongly about this that he prevailed upon the Commonwealth Eminent Persons’ Group to withdraw its recommendation to the Papua New Guinea Government to conduct personnel reductions to the PNG Defence Force. Reith argued that this was to maintain political stability in Papua New Guinea but said to me privately, this was to keep the Indonesians from “getting any ideas about PNG”.

Not so a threat, argued Minister for Foreign Affairs Phillip Ruddock. Ruddock said that Indonesia was “useful” rather than a threat. Ruddock argued Australia wanted the economic advantage of a good bilateral relationship with China but politically, it shared the United States’ concern that China was becoming stronger. Indonesia’s usefulness here is that if it was able to form a political bloc consisting of most if not all Southeast Asian Nation, it may well have the ability to counterbalance China. This suited Australia’s interests just fine without putting it in a position where it is openly seen to be standing up to China. The only thing Australia has to do was allow Indonesia a free hand in Southeast Asia.”

Excerpts from The Costello Memoirs

Indonesia aside, Prime Minister Peter Costello’s main concern was domestic. There was enough widespread sentiment in the populace that the GST, which took effect in July 2000, would cause prices to rise that the final quarter of 2000 resulted in negative economic growth. These figures only came out in March 2001, at a time when the recession was taking effect in the United States and there was concern that it would spread around the world. It was also pointed out that another quarter of negative economic growth would mean that Australia was in a technical recession. Costello and Treasurer Alexander Downer and moved quickly. Among other things, they cut fuel excise and doubling the Home Owners’ Grant to stimulate activity in the economy.

Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley was riding on the populace’s fear of the GST and produced strong results in opinion polls. In March 2001, Beazley and the ALP scored a psychological blow against Costello and his Liberal/National Coalition by winning a by-election. This meant the balance of power in the House of Representatives was now the Coalition’s 75 seats to the ALP’s 71 seats.

All these factors were important because 2001 was an election year. Though polls were not due until the end of the year, Costello had boxed himself in upon assuming the prime ministership in July 2000 by saying that he would call an election 12 months after assuming office. By late July 2001, Costello was facing questions by friend and foe alike over when he would hold the election. For a few weeks, it looked like Costello was going to break his promise. The tide began to turn when in August 2001, Downer announced the economic figures for the second quarter of 2001 revealing that the economy was growing again. With some economic good news, Costello thought that the time had finally arrived. In mid-August 2001, Costello announced that the 2001 Australian Federal Election would be held on 22nd September 2001.

---
In OTL, Solomon Islands asked for Australia and New Zealand’s intervention in 1999. However, Australia and New Zealand were already involved in the events at East Timor and were reluctant to help. It was only in OTL 2003 that there was a real intervention.

Events in Fiji unfolded as in OTL but diverges with Bainimarama holding on to power instead of letting go of it.

If one looks at Vanuatu's OTL Government, the one thing they agree on regardless of political persuasion is West Papuan Independence.

ITTL Australia sees Indonesia as the leader in Southeast Asia as a way to balance China's growing power as beneficial to Australia while at the same time feeling some insecurity that Indonesia has territorial intentions towards Papua New Guinea.

 

[Derff]

I'm curious on how the OPM would react on a better developed Irian Jaya that also has a good relation with PNG. Would there be a Benny Wenda-like case in TTL Indonesia?

 

[GSD310]

I'm curious on how the OPM would react on a better developed Irian Jaya that also has a good relation with PNG. Would there be a Benny Wenda-like case in TTL Indonesia?

Short answer: At the moment no, but there's something in the not to distant future in TTL related to Irian Jaya.

Long answer:
I think not only is Irian Jaya ITTL better developed, it's also a Special Region complete with a law outlining what the Special Region is (In actuality it's OTL's Otsus but given the label of Special Region ITTL).

Also note that East Timor's 1999 Referendum is butterflied away and with it, the sense that Iran Jaya and Aceh will be next in line for a referendum.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa May August 2001:
Northeast Asia and South Asia​

South Korea and North Korea:
The failure of President Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine Policy hurt his standing, so much so that slightly more than halfway through his term, the word “lame duck” was already being associated with him. For a time, Kim turned his focus inwards on economic and social policy and preparing the nation to co-host the 2002 World Cup with Japan. The spring only returned somewhat to Kim’s Presidency in March 2001 when President of the United States John McCain made South Korea his first visit overseas. McCain called South Korea a “frontline” and that the United States will continue and supporting it. It was an apt comment for South Korea could rightly be called the only nation in Northeast Asia that did not fall under China’s sway in 2000.

After McCain left Seoul, however, Kim found himself under attack by President of the Grand National Party (GNP) and National Assembly Member Lee Hoi Chang. Lee said that McCain’s support only applies to the South Korean people and not to the current “failed administration”. Lee also said that South Korea needs to adopt a stronger stance on North Korea. It was a political attack that made the South Korean public realize that the political temperature was about to heat up again for the presidential election was due in December 2002 and that Lee, a former presidential candidate in 1997, was angling to take another shot.

Across the 38th Parallel, Chairman of National Defense Commission Kim Jong Il entertained notions that it might fall to him to reunify the country seeing as Russia and China were once again positioning themselves to challenge the United States. In December 2000, returning from a visit to both Beijing and Moscow, Premier Hong Song Nam reported to Kim Jong Il that China and Russia had cautioned North Korea not to take any “rash actions” and “keep us in the loop”.

In January 2001, Kim visited China. After travelling around Shanghai, he met with President of China Jiang Zemin in which the latter impressed on Kim the importance of conducting economic reform in North Korea. In March 2001, Kim was visited by Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and once again talk of economic reform was brought up. The results of these lobbying, some would say pressure, became evident during North Korea’s May Day celebrations when Kim announced that the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) will hold a National Congress in November 2001, its first in 21 years, to discuss matters such as “economic reforms to strengthen our Juche economy”. Observers of North Korea were abuzz with activity at this announcement; a consensus emerging that China and Russia had pressured North Korea to undertake economic reforms in exchange for ensuring the preservation of Kim’s regime.

Japan:
In the first 6 months of his tenure, Prime Minister Koichi Kato sought to show his mark. He cut spending by going after public works projects and subsidies, cutting corporate taxes, and conducting deregulation and privatization. Much to the relief of those in Jakarta, aid was not cut though this still left Kato’s foreign policy orientation to worry about.

The Japanese General Election was held in October 2000. 6 months was not enough to turn the Japanese economy around, but it was enough to show that Kato had the right intention. On the back of this, Kato was able to increase the LDP’s seats in the House of Representatives from 233 to 242 so that it could form government on its own right without coalition partners though Kato retained the LDP’s coalition with New Komeito and the newly formed New Conservative Party. Meanwhile Yukio Hatoyama led the DPJ to 122 seats in the House of Representatives.

The next 6 months proved trickier for Kato. At a time when the Japanese economy needed to increase its activity and when the United States had gone into a recession in 2001, Kato’s “structural reforms” involved spending cuts intead of stimulating the economy. In cabinet meetings, Kato was pressured to initiate a stimulus package. The Prime Minister insisted that they stay the course even as the stagnant Japanese economy began to slow down.

July 2001 saw the House of Councillors, Japan’s upper house, elections. It was election that all in the LDP gave increased scrutiny. A drop in the number in the LDP seats had caused Ryutaro Hashimoto to resign the prime ministership in 1998. In the event, Kato managed to increase LDP’s seats in the House of Councillors by two. Hardly a resounding endorsement but one with which Kato’s growing detractors to turn into a pretext for unseating him. For the moment, Kato, characterized as always as “pro-China”, holds on.

Kato genuinely feels surprised when characterized as being “pro-China” arguing instead that he was in favor of an equilateral triangle where Japan has close bilateral relationships with both the United States and China. For this reason, Kato was keen to maintain Japan’s close relationship with Indonesia, constantly assuring Indonesian officials who come to visit that continuing investment and aid in Indonesia from Japan was a guarantee. In April 2001, Kato even went as far as conveying the Indonesian Government’s request to the US Government to pressure Freeport into divesting its shares in Irian Jaya to the Indonesian Government. Kato’s failure, however, indicates the McCain Administration’s relatively cool response to him.

Taiwan:
James Soong assumed office as President of Taiwan in May 2000. Aside from maintaining Taiwan’s economic performance, Soong also began to work on cross-strait relations. In August 2000, Soong’s Government approved direct postal, transportation, and trade links between the Kinmen and Matsu Islands controlled by Taiwan with cities in Fujian Province just across the strait. The decision was warmly welcomed by Jiang. When Soong indicated that he would like to attend the APEC Summit in November 2000, Jiang did not object though when he met with Soong at Bandar Sri Begawan, he referred to the latter as the “Delegate from the Province of Taiwan”. Nevertheless, the photo-op between the two, which also included Chief Executive of Hong Kong Tung Chee Hwa showed what a good year 2000 was for China.

The reaction to Soong’s policy would come in 2001. The DPP, led by former Mayor of Taipei Chen Sui Bian, expressed strong opposition to Soong’s policies toward China and sought to build popular support. In what would become known the “Three Toos” speech, Chen said Soong had moved “Too Fast”, “Too Soon”, and “Too Close” with the mainland. The DPP aimed to make its mark at the 2001 Legislative Elections.

From Washington, the McCain Administration kept a watch on Northeast Asia. In late 2000, then President-Elect McCain went into his first State Department briefing and came out bemused. “Just my luck”, he said “Taking office at a time when both Tokyo and Taipei are friendly towards Beijing.”

China:
The year 2000 was a great year as far as China was concerned; the rise of a pro-China Prime Minister of Japan and a President of Taiwan that was friendly towards the mainland on top of another year of strong economic growth.

President Jiang Zemin welcomed Yevgeny Primakov’s rise as President of Russia with some ambivalence. There was no question that China and Russia were natural allies against the United States as Chairman of NPC Li Peng was fond of pointing out. At the same time, Jiang had established a good relationship with Bill Clinton and had hoped that this relationship would continue if Al Gore was elected president. But this was not to be, for it was John McCain who was elected. Jiang last saw Clinton as president at the 2000 APEC Summit. Though genuinely sad that Clinton was on his way out, Jiang’s mind was already on the future. Li Peng spent the end of the year in Moscow overseeing preparations for what would become the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. In January 2001 with only 48 hours left until McCain’s Inauguration, Primakov visited Beijing and together, he and Jiang signed the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.

It was not long before China had its first run-in with the new administration. In April 2001, a Chinese fighter jet and a US Navy signals intelligence airplane collided mid-air with each other. The Chinese pilot was declared dead (he was never found) but the US Navy personnel were detained by the Chinese authorities. The situation was only defused and the US Navy personnel released when a letter was given by the US Government to Chinese Government which may or may not be considered to be an apology depending on who’s reading it.

Another foreign policy issue which Jiang and the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party discussed in early 2001 was the region immediately next to theirs and the nation seeking to establish. For the ASEAN+3 Summit in November 2000, original plans had called for Jiang to offer a Free Trade Agreement between China and ASEAN. However, this idea was scrapped. Jiang used the summit instead to try to “intimidate” President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno in essence softly warning him not to try to challenge China. Upon return to Beijing, Jiang reported his exchange with Try and admitted that Try seemed a tough nut to crack. Li Peng advised Jiang that China had bigger concerns to worry about than Indonesia.

Then in February 2001, as news spread that Indonesia was going to sign its Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Thailand. This time Premier Zhu Rongji spoke up and with an eye to Prime Minister Najib Razak’s visit, argued that China should respect Indonesia’s supremacy in Southeast Asia and not try to encourage Malaysia’s refusal not to be part of Indonesia’s bloc. Zhu was outvoted by the consensus of the Politburo Standing Committee which was that China should use Malaysia to counter Indonesia’s bid for leadership in Southeast Asia.

In March 2001, after Laos’ LPRP National Congress and the National Assembly produced leaders which tended to adopt a more independent stance as it relate to China, discussions about Indonesia became more serious. This was especially more so when it was pointed out that General Secretary of Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) Le Kha Phieu ran the risk of being replaced at the upcoming VCP Congress by those who tended to be “Pro-Indonesian”. The Politburo Standing Committee thus agreed to intervene on a “party-to-party” basis and instruct the VCP to delay its congress to a more favorable time. What Jiang and the Chinese leadership did not count on were the VCP moving of its own accord to remove Le Kha Phieu and install Nong Duc Manh as acting general secretary. Jiang also counted even less that most of Southeast Asia would be displeased at the intervention effort.

At a Politburo Standing Committee meeting after the completion of the VCP National Congress, there was a consensus that what happened in Vietnam was to the benefit of Indonesia. Li Peng however continued to insist that there were more important matters to attend to. Jiang agreed with him; Indonesia was nothing compared to what China was aspiring to.

“Comrades, we launched an unmanned spacecraft in January, our application to host the Olympics in 2008 will be decided in July, and we’re joining the WTO in November”, said Jiang “What have we to worry about a few good fortunes going Indonesia’s way? They’re a long way from beating us. Well they beat us on the football field a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t count, right? Our concern is the bald eagle across the ocean.”

Domestically, the CCP began to look forward to the matter of succession where it was becoming clear that Jiang Zemin was showing no intention of departing the scene. As 2000 wore on, Jiang increasingly became close with Li Peng. Where Jiang was reluctant to leave the scene, Li wanted to retain influence even after retirement and the two made common cause.

October 2000 saw the CCP’s Central Committee meet in its annual session. While Zhu Rongji introduced China’s next Five Year Plan, Jiang spoke about the international situation and how China needed to find strategic partners and build a multipolar world. Over the next few years, China would need “steady hand leadership” as it moves forward. Those present at the plenum quickly that Jiang was making a pitch to stay on. While there was resistance to the idea of Jiang staying on, most were unsure about Hu Jintao. His blandness, passivity, and caution even in the face of Jiang toying with the idea of not relinquishing power made people wonder if he has what it takes to be China’s leader.

In the end, The Central Committee’s annual plenum ended with Hu’s position as leader-in-waiting looking shaky. Once again, Hu missed out on being named Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. At the same time, the CCP Central Committee agreed to expand the Politburo Standing Committee’s composition from 7 members to 9. The two additional seats were given to Secretary of the Central Politics and Legal Affairs Commission Luo Gan and Vice Premier Wen Jiabao. The former was seen as Li’s protégé though acceptable to Jiang and the latter, being groomed for succession of the premiership by Zhu Rongji, seen as a way to keep Zhu onside. Both immediately gained status as alternate leaders in the event that Hu did not eventuate.

Hu was not unaware what was up. In April 2001, he chose to take up the duty of asking the VCP to delay its National Congress. Other Politburo Standing Committee members shied away from taking up what would be an unpopular duty but that was precisely the point. A failure though the intervention on the VCP was, Hu won points as far as being a loyal party member was concerned. The Next CCP National Congress would not be due until late 2002 and there will be plenty of jockeying to be done.

India:
With a continually growing economy, a budget deficit at a time when military spending was required to face off against Pakistan, and the nation’s population crossing the 1 billion mark, there was already plenty in Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s plate. But things were happening abroad too. In September 2000, Vajpayee visited Washington DC finding Bill Clinton very courteous as always but noticing that Clinton was desperate to lock in India as a partner against China and Russia. Then a month later, Primakov visited India and was keen that India would become Russia’s partner. After all, it was Primakov’s vision that Russia, China, and India form a triangle to counter American influence. Vajpayee did not commit to anything that would unduly limit his options. He wanted to see if this “New Cold War” was anything like the old.

This was not to say that the Indian Government was not concerned about the world around it. Pakistan was always on top of the list as far as security threats are concerned but as George Fernandes, the hawkish Minister of Defence, was wont of saying, China was “also right up there”. China’s “great year” in 2000 meant that it became more urgent for India to find a way to check China’s progress. This was where Indonesia figured into Vajpayee’s calculations.

Vajpayee had initially identified Indonesia as a potential check on China’s influence on the basis of size alone. By the end of 2000, with Indonesia’s strong economic growth and its more assertive stance on foreign policy, Vajpayee began to think that India should come to an arrangement with Indonesia as to how to relate to China.

This arrangement was completed in June 2001 when President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno visited India. Though the formal agreements signed was important, the informal agreement was also important too. As Vajpayee explained to his cabinet, India would not get in the way of an “assertive Indonesia” in Southeast Asia and would use the leverage it has in Myanmar, where it has sought to counter China’s influence, to encourage the isolated junta-led nation to be part of Indonesia’s bloc. In exchange, Indonesia will build closer ties with Pakistan, in particular with Chief Executive of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf who admired Try, and lobby in favor of India.

There were some murmurs around the table that the informal arrangement with Indonesia meant that India now have to tolerate Musharraf’s existence given that it was contingent on Try Sutrisno building a good relationship with Musharraf. Vajpayee told his ministers that he allowed Try to make the offer to build closer ties with Musharraf so the Indonesian president can feel that he’s offering something back. He said that Indonesia would have already fulfilled its part of the bargain if it was able to become a legitimate counterweight to China.

Pakistan:
Chief Executive of Pakistan Musharraf continues to consolidate his position. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been detained since the 1999 Coup, has been sentenced to life imprisonment though appeals by the Saudi Royal Family had caused Musharraf to send Sharif into exile there in December 2000. The Supreme Court of Pakistan has also declared Musharraf’s coup in 1999 to be legal.

Not all was well. In early February 2001, after news that the President of Indonesia had conducted mass arrests on those affiliated with Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah had arrived, Musharraf’s closest colleagues gathered to intrigue. The Pakistani Army’s officer corps had an Islamist bent and had cozy links with the nation’s Mullah. Musharraf had played this game dutifully. He had maintained the relationship and had even continued the nation’s stance of recognizing and supporting the Taliban Regime next door in Afghanistan. At the same time however, Musharraf had spent some of his formative years and had fancied himself a reformer and modernizer like Kemal Ataturk. Now this background counted against him.

“In the past he wanted to be Ataturk, in the present will he be like Try Sutrisno?” asked Director General of Inter-Service Intelligence Lt. Gen. Mahmud Ahmed.

Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno was indeed the present-day world leader that Musharraf looked up to. Their military backgrounds along with their non-infantry origins (Musharraf from the artillery, Try from the engineers) meant they had a lot to bond over, though Try seemed reluctant that Indonesia become too close to Pakistan. But this changed as 2001 wore on. Musharraf and the Pakistani delegation were welcomed warmly in Indonesia when they attended the G-15 Summit in May 2001 and Musharraf returned the welcome when Try visited the next month.

Musharraf was not unaware of what was going on behind him and spent 2001 consolidating his position. In May 2001, prior to his departure to Jakarta to attend the G-15 Summit in Jakarta, Musharraf relinquished his position as Chief of Army Staff and appointed Aziz Khan. Aziz Khan was a supporter of Musharraf but was also acceptable to the Islamist elements in the Pakistani Army; holding anti-American views. Once back from the G-15 Summit, Musharraf further consolidated his positioned. He sidelined President Rafiq Tarar and assumed the presidency for himself in June. Musharraf however still held on to his office as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs Committee and as Chief Executive of Pakistan, the latter being the office he had assumed for himself after the 1999 coup.

Bangladesh:
Bangladesh initially recognized secularism in its constitution at independence but successive governments and amendments had chipped away at this so that Islam had become the state religion. The news of Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno arresting Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah operatives and his strong overall stance against Islamism gave Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina energy to fight her own struggle; Hasina being the target of a foiled assassination attempt in July 2000.

2001 was to be a busy year for Bangladesh. It was due to host the Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Dhaka and to this end, President of South Africa and current Chairman of NAM Thabo Mbeki visited Bangladesh in December 2000 to ensure preparations were well and good. Hasina assured Mbeki that they were. Mbeki also used the opportunity to visit Opposition Leader Khaleda Zia. Zia, wife of late Presiden Ziaur Rahman and former prime minister, pledged that if elected, she would hold the NAM Summit.

A bipartisan commitment to holding the NAM Summit was important for 2001 was an election. Already the political temperature was rising with violence abound. Under provisions of the Bangladeshi Constitution, Hasina handed over the reins of government to a caretaker government in June 2001. The Caretaker Government was headed by former Chief Justice Latifur Rahman. Though ostensibly only there to hold the elections, the Rahman-led Caretaker Government will also have the additional task of preparing Bangladesh to host the NAM Summit in October 2001.

Rest of South Asia:
Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake’s government was re-elected in December 2000. Adopting a hardline approach, Wickeremanayake was beginning to equip Sri Lankan Army units with Pindad Rifles bought from Indonesia in its campaign against the Tamil Tigers. Though adopting a hardline stance, Sri Lanka suffered a setback when Tamil Tigers rebels attacked Bandaranaike International Airport in July 2001 causing extensive damage to the airport and adjoining Air Force Base.

Aside from Sri Lanka, Pindad was interested in selling its assault rifles to Nepal. The CEO of Pindad Maj. Gen. Djoko Subroto got to make a presentation about Pindad’s capabilities in front of Crown Prince Dipendra, who was an assault rifle enthusiast. Djoko hoped to make the sale considering that Nepal was embroiled in a civil war against Nepalese Maoists but Dipendra was not interested. Dipendra’s aide told Djoko that 1st June 2001, that Dipendra was not getting on with his family and was just looking for an excuse to a avoid a family dinner that night.

April 2001 saw Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita visit Bhutan to discuss establishing diplomatic relations.

---
China is going through what is happening OTL plus the fact that they got friendlier than usual governments in Japan and Taiwan. Pretty much South Korea is the only nation in the region that hasn’t been pulled into China’s orbit.

Much as Australia, India sees Indonesia as the nation that could be used to counterbalance China. OTL Vajpayee actually reduces tensions with China in the early 2000s. But an Indonesia that survives and be the first to get out of the Asian Financial Crisis does change calculations.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa May August 2001:
​

Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan:
After he had concluded a Treaty of Friendship with China in January 2001, next on President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov’s list of bilateral relations to be converted into an alliance were those with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. They were natural choices, being 3 post-Soviet Republics, and were already familiar with Russia and China, having been involved with them as part of the Shanghai Five, an informal gathering of nations.

In August 2001, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Narbayev, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, and President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev joined Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of China Jiang Zemin to sign the Shanghai Pact and form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO was formed for the purposes of mutual security and economic cooperation.

Uzbekistan:
Under President Islam Karimov’s leadership, Uzbekistan had already withdrawn from the Commonwealth of Independent States’ Collective Security Treaty in 1999. Primakov’s emergence as the next President of Russia only made Karimov more certain that Uzbekistan should adopt a more independent foreign policy; keeping its distance from Moscow.

In the meantime, Uzbekistan made a friend in an unlikely place. To fuel its textile industry and exports as well as its economic growth as a whole, Indonesia had begun increasing its imports of Uzbek cotton. Indonesia’s demand was rapacious. In January 2001, Indonesian Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo came to Uzbekistan in January 2001, his second visit in 6 months. Karimov himself visited Jakarta in July 2001, concluding an agreement that would secure cotton supply to Indonesia for the next 5 years. Karimov left Jakarta thinking that Uzbekistan had a lot in common with Indonesia.

Iran:
The Reformist victory in the February 2000 Legislative Elections energized President Mohammad Khatami and his supporters so much that when reality bit, it was all the more deflating. Though president, the Iranian political system was such, that control of the Armed Forces and the courts, in short real power, lay in the hand of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A month after the elections, one of Khatami’s associates was shot in the face and in the coming months, reformist publications would found themselves closed down.

Khatami looked for solace in foreign affairs. The Clinton Administration had been giving signals that it was ready for rapprochement with Iran throughout its second term. Now these signals and the officials from the Department of State to bring the message to Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Kharazzi came hard and fast, especially after Primakov had been elected and assumed the Russian presidency. Alas, time ran out on Clinton. First it was conveyed to Khatami that President Bill Clinton had hoped the next Administration would be a Gore Administration and that he would continue what Clinton had begun. Then it was the Republicans’ John McCain who emerged victorious in the 2000 US Presidential Elections. Within days of assuming office, McCain said that he would not be continuing Clinton’s overtures to Tehran. Khatami wondered if he had to drift in the Russians and the Chinese’s direction if McCain wanted to be hostile to Iran.

Russia at the very least wanted Iran to drift in its direction. In late October 2000, Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be withdrawing from an agreement it signed with the United States in 1995 to limit conventional weapons sale to Iran. In March 2001, Khatami visited Russia yet amidst cooperation agreements he signed in the field of energy and economics, he refrained from concluding an agreement on anything military.

Disconsolate, Khatami considered not running for re-election as president in 2001. Domestically many urged him to put his name forward. On the international front, he was dissuaded from this course of action by Prime Minister of Italy Massimo D’Alema. Speaking over the phone, D’Alema said that the world should take more notice of Iran not wanting to buy weapons from Russia. D’Alema said that Italy will help Iran pending D’Alema’s own fate at Italy’s Parliamentary Elections. In April 2001, to the cheers of his followers, Khatami declared that he will run for re-election in the Iranian Presidential Election.

In June 2001, Khatami was re-elected with an overwhelming amount of votes. Though his victory was welcomed, Khatami was quickly reminded of his place. During a dispute between the Reformist majority in parliament and conservative judiciary over nominations to the Guardians Council in August 2001, Ali Khamenei delayed Khatami’s inauguration for a few votes until this dispute was resolved. Parliament reluctantly acquiesced and it was only then that Khatami’s inauguration went ahead.

Thus, Khatami began his second term. He took his oath determined that even with constraints at home, he was determined to make the most of what authority he has.

Syria:
After a 1 month interregnum in which the Constitution was amended to allow him to qualify for the presidency and a referendum in which he was the only candidate, Bashar Al-Assad was elected President of Syria in July 2000. In October 2000, Al-Assad invoked the automatic 5 year renewal period in Syria’s 1980 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov readily gave commitment that the treaty was in effect.

Despite bordering each other and sharing a common ally in Russia, Al-Assad declared that thus far that the hostile stance which his father took towards Iraq had not changed.

Iraq:
President of Iraq Saddam Hussein sent Vice President Izzat Ibrahim Al Douri to Primakov’s inauguration in August 2000 as a mark of respect for the new President of Russia.

Saddam watched the 2000 US Presidential Campaigns and said that a choice between Gore and McCain was “no choice at all”. When McCain emerged victorious and assumed office, Saddam braced himself. For their part, the new US Administration made no bones what their intentions were. US National Security Advisor Bill Kristol in a policy speech in March 2001 said that it was the Administration’s intention to implement McCain’s “Rogue State Rollback” campaign promise, specifically in Iraq. Kristol said that the US Administration will arm, equip, and train those forces which are hostile to Saddam’s regime; the eventual goal being the overthrow of Saddam and the establishment of a democratic Iraq. Moscow pushed back saying that what McCain was saying amounted to what the CIA was doing during the Cold War.

By July 2001, the US Administration stepped up its rhetoric with President of the United States John McCain saying that he intended to carry out the Iraq Liberation Act passed by the Clinton Administration. In addition to seeing Iraq as a security threat, McCain also wanted to test Russia’s resolve. Saddam was friends with Primakov and McCain wanted to see what Russia was going to do beyond rhetoric.

Israel:
In September 2000, Opposition Leader and Leader of the Likud Party Ariel Sharon conducted a visit to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Sharon wanted to show Israel’s claim on the Temple Mount but ended up provoking what became known as the Intifada Al-Aqsa. Over the coming weeks there was a marked increase of violence, rioting, and killings inflicted by Israelis and Palestinians on each other through military (in the case of Israel) and other means. In Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Ehud Barak felt the pressure. Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount had been a warning shot not to concede too much in his negotiations with Chairman of PLO Yasser Arafat. At the same time he did not trust Arafat.

Still, Barak played the cards he held in his hands for all it was worth. Though his coalition was breaking down and he was at risk of losing a no-confidence motion, Barak had the authority to call an early election and the Knesset Members did not like the prospects of having to defend their seats 18 months into a 4 year term. This helped keep him in power, at least for now.

October 2000 proved that the United States was diverting its focus away from Israel and Palestine. Bill Clinton found himself in the United States’ first stoush with Primakov’s Russia, trying to drum up support for a Romanian Presidential Candidate who would not be pro-Russian, and handling a terrorist attack in Yemen all at the same time. But the violence began to transition into an uneasy peace as October wore on. In the Palestinian Territories, Arafat called for calm. All things considered, negotiating with Barak was preferable to negotiating with Sharon and he did not want to give Sharon the ammunition to topple Barak.

In January 2001, Barak became Clinton’s final official visitor when he came to Washington. With days until he handed power over, Clinton was apologetic saying that he would have made another effort at bringing Barak and Arafat together were it not for the lack of time and other priorities. Meeting with President-elect John McCain, Barak came out of the meeting with the impression that while McCain was sympathetic to what Sharon was doing at the Temple Mount a few months back, he was not entirely comfortable that Sharon was a Russian speaker; this prejudice also revealing to Barak that McCain’s priorities laid elsewhere.

Still trying to keep his Government afloat, Barak felt that the best way to keep his Government going was to enter into a coalition with Likud. Sharon was interested but wanted Barak to distance himself from the negotiations at Camp David. Barak said that whatever proposal he had given to Arafat at Camp David had been American in origin. At the same time, Barak leveraged McCain’s discomfort with Sharon even as he said he wanted Sharon and the “point of view” that he represented inside the Government. Sharon got the point and thought that he might be more acceptable to Washington as part of Barak’s Government.

In February 2001, Barak and Sharon agreed to form a Coalition with Sharon as Deputy Prime Minister. In addition Barak’s One Nation Coalition and Sharon’s Likud, the Coalition was joined by Yisrael Baaliyah, Shinui, and Centre Party to hold the majority in the Knesset. Over the next few months, the prime minister and deputy prime minister would be attacked by their respective ends of the political spectrums; Barak being attacked from the left and Sharon from the right. The attack from the right being led by former prime minister and Likud member Benjamin Netanyahu called for new general elections to be held.

With violence continuing to occur in Israel and Palestinian territory alike, the new US Administration weighed in on the the conflict between Israel and Palestine in July 2001. McCain said that resumption of talks with the PLO can only occur without Yasser Arafat at the PLO’s helm. This caused Arafat to retort that negotiations with the Israeli government could only resume with Sharon’s resignation from government considering that Sharon “instigated all this”.

Gulf States:
By the time Qatar hosted the OIC Summit in November 2000, Indonesia had established itself as a premier place to invest in. Delegations from the Department of Economics and National Development Planning, the BKPM, and not to mention President Try Sutrisno himself did great work promoting involvement in infrastructure development in Indonesia; presenting to the Sultans and Emir with the prospect of owning a piece of toll road or dam or irrigation network in a faraway land. All Gulf States were targeted for investment to ensure that there would not be dependence on one state.

The Gulf States presented Indonesia with more indication that its economy had recovered. While the number of migrant workers seeking work to be domestic workers in the Gulf State remained constant, the number of migrant workers in other sectors like construction has lessened, owing to more availability of employment back in Indonesia.

Of all the Gulf States, Indonesia had its warmest relations with Bahrain. Bahrain’s moderate and tolerant stance was seen as a perfect complement with Indonesia. It also did not hurt that Bahrain, when a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, voted to recognize that East Timor was part of Indonesia’s territory. In February 2001, Bahrain’s people voted in a referendum for Bahrain to become a constitutional monarchy.

Kuwait also had good relations with Indonesia, being the first Gulf State to invest in Indonesian infrastructure and then turning around to promote Indonesia to other nations in the region. Its Embassy in New Zealand was demonstrated against pro-East Timor demonstrators on 17th July 2001. “How can a nation who spent a few months being annexed could be such an enthusiastic supporter of Indonesia, which has annexed East Timor?”

Saudi Arabia:
The health of King Fahd continued to decline while the influence of his half-brother Crown Prince Abdullah continued to increase. In June 2000, Abdullah set up a family council to discuss internal family matters. In 2001, the two half-brothers’ common concern was the new US Administration’s bellicose attitude towards Iraq. Though the McCain Administration’s bellicosity seemed to be rhetorical, Fahd and Abdullah asked US Secretary of State Richard Williamson whether McCain was being serious. Fahd told Williamson that though it favored expelling Saddam Hussein from Kuwait in 1991, Saudi Arabia could not support McCain if his intention was ultimately to unseat Saddam saying that Saddam’s removal could cause instability in the region. Fahd also cautioned Williamson that the Arab World has not taken kindly to McCain’s coming down heavily on Israel’s side and calling for Arafat to be removed.

One matter where the two royals did not so readily form a united front arrived at a Council of Ministers Meetings throughout 2001 in two matters but originating from the same country. The first was the news that the Indonesian Government had launched a crackdown on Wahabists in Central Java. There was an initial decision to issue an official statement but then Fahd settled for a verbal complaint to be delivered in a meeting with Jakarta’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Malik Fadjar and for the Saudi Ambassador in Jakarta to issue a similar complaint to Indonesia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

The second was news that once again came to Indonesia. The Islamic and Arab Science Institute (LIPIA) in Jakarta, which was under the supervision of the Saudi Embassy in Indonesia, was claiming that they were coming under increased surveillance from Indonesia’s intelligence apparatus. Fahd and Abdullah did not come to an agreement about what step to take but they were spared disagreeing with each other by the requirement to address the US’ stance on Iraq.

Afghanistan:
“The operation in Yemen went ahead successfully and for a while there we were in the United States’ crosshairs. I expected a military response but I haven’t had any. I guess Clinton and McCain really do have their hands full with Russia and China to deal with us. If they still take little notice of us after we hit one of their ships, then perhaps something bigger is indeed warranted. Praise be to Allah that we are making preparations for that something bigger.

Indonesia…well, if Indonesia is not the nation with the largest Islamic population, I would not be too worried about it. But this…these arrests show that the Government of Indonesia have their eyes on us. The brother from Jemaah Islamiyah has revealed his and that Jemaah Islamiyah’s existence by rashly stabbing a Government official in broad daylight last year…this is all his fault. The brothers in Indonesia have done away with the planned bombings of churches at last Christmas Eve and now this…

Let’s not worry. If they take little notice of us here in Afghanistan where the only thing they see is civil war, there is perhaps a blessing in disguise for this. The funds that has been prepared for the brothers in Indonesia, that can now be diverted. Yes…divert them to our brothers learning to fly in the United States. Allah willing, it will be of better use to them.”

Emir of Al Qaeda Osama Bin Laden, March 2001

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Iran’s path is OTL until Khatami decides not to sign any military deals with Russia.

I know I’m selling the Israel and Palestinian situation short in terms of not conveying what’s happening but I don’t want to get too bogged down or else this TL won’t return to Indonesia again.

Saved Osama Bin Laden for last. And yes ladies and gents, Indonesia’s vigilance and willingness to act against radicalism and terrorism ITTL means terrorists are having second thoughts about striking Indonesia. This in turn causes Bin Laden to decide to divert more resources to the “brothers” practicing their flying skills in the US.

The operation in Yemen is of course the attack on USS Cole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIPIA for information on the Jakarta-based Saudi institution which the Indonesian Government is spying on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_John_McCain#Foreign_policy for John McCain and "rogue state rollback".

 

[Unknown]

Saved Osama Bin Laden for last. And yes ladies and gents, Indonesia’s vigilance and willingness to act against radicalism and terrorism ITTL means terrorists are having second thoughts about striking Indonesia. This in turn causes Bin Laden to decide to divert more resources to the “brothers” practicing their flying skills in the US.

That's going to mean a worse 9/11 in the US, IMO...

The original plan for 9/11 IOTL (according to this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_of_the_September_11_attacks) involved 12 planes being hijacked and crashing into targets on the American East and West Coasts, including the Twin Towers, the Pentagon (which were attacked on 9/11 IOTL), the White House and Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., the Prudential Center in Boston, the Sears Tower (now named the Willis Tower) in Chicago, the Library Tower (now the U.S. Bank Tower), in Los Angeles, the Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco, and the Columbia Center in Seattle, Washington.

If that happens, look out, because the U.S. reaction will be worse than OTL, especially if President McCain/other top American officials die ITTL...

With the extra financing, I wonder if this plays out ITTL...

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa August 2001:
Africa​

Egypt:
Though geographically located in North Africa, Egypt’s interests lay in the Middle East. President Hosni Mubarak offered himself to mediate between Israel and Palestine at the onset of Al Aqsa Intifada though with the United States’ increasing focus on Russia, this was not possible. After Clinton had passed the baton to John McCain, Mubarak once again offered Egypt to play a role in mediation though it seemed McCain had other priorities.

In November 2000, Egypt completed its People’s Assembly Election. Of the 454 seats, 353 fell to Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP). 72 Independents were also elected of which 17 were members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood members ran as independents because officially their organization was banned. Their election showed that there were cracks in Mubarak’s regime. This made Mubarak’s comment to Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno at the D-8 Summit that he drew strength from Try’s arrests of Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah operatives in Indonesia all the more genuine.

Tunisia and Morocco:
An unlikely region where Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno had drawn attention in recent times has been North Africa. No less than King Mohammed VI in Morocco and President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali have had their interest piqued by Try. Analysts within Indonesia’s Department of Foreign Affairs say that they see a commonality with Try because they inherited their regimes rather than be the ones to construct it and they see themselves as more liberal or reformist than their predecessors but also trying their best to make sure that their regimes will survive. In that sense, they see President Try and his actions as something with which they can “compare notes”. The two met Try at the OIC Summit in Qatar in November 2000 but they did not get a long face time with Try.

Morocco’s King Mohammed inherited his father’s throne in 1999, both the funeral and the coronation being attended on Indonesia’s behalf by Chairman of DPA Rudini. Rudini remembered Mohammed asking about “President Try, who was dealing well with the Asian Financial Crisis”. A year on after he had ascended to the throne, Mohammed said in an interview that he is balancing between being an “absolutist and parliamentary” and that he was balancing “Tradition and modernization”. Mohammed said that this was not going after contradictory goals because “Certain other leaders” are following this path though he did not mention who he modeled his style after.

Ben Ali got most of his information about Try after the OIC Summit in November 2000 from his ambassador to Jakarta who he summoned back specifically to satisfy his curiosity. Ben Ali fancied himself a modernizer though his critics suggested that only his cronies benefitted from his governance of the nation. First Lady Leila Ben Ali, often targeted by Ben Ali’s critics, did not like what she heard about Try.

“This Try fellow, he was elevated to the vice presidency by his predecessor was he not?” she asked “Why has he turned around to target his predecessor’s children. Isn’t that a bit disloyal?”

Algeria:
In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was fighting a civil war against various Islamist groups in the country. By the end of 2000, Bouteflika’s forces had compelled the surrender of the largest of these groups and working on the surrender of the other groups. In February 2001, after the D-8 Summit, Indonesia’s State Minister of National Security Soerjadi visited Algeria to see how Bouteflika were taking on the various groups of Islamists.

Libya:
One of the reasons why Indonesia decided to intervene decisively in the Sipadan Hostage Situation in September 2000 was that Leader Muammar Gaddafi was seeking to insert himself into the situation; negotiating for the release of the Western hostages. Indonesia’s Try Sutrisno did not want to allow this happen, remembering that Muammar Gaddafi had trained the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in the 80s. For his part, Gaddafi was not happy that Try “had the gall” to deprive him of glory and began to make contact with his Acehnese compatriots, urging them to make their voices heard.

Senegal:
Still under IMF tutelage, President Abdou Diouf accepted the inclusion of privatizing of Senegal’s state-owned electricity company Senelec as a condition to continue receiving aid. This privatization was carried out in 1999. The privatization was not well carried out. By the time this was realized, however, Diouf had lost in the 2000 Presidential Elections and had been succeeded by Abdoulaye Wade. By September 2000, Wade had renationalized Senelec. At the end of 2000, IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer was pressuring Wade to re-privatize Senelec. Having begun to improve Senelec’s services, Wade did not want to be rushed into trying to privatize again.

Being pro-US, Wade thought he could get Secretary of Treasury Lawrence Summers to get Fischer to ease the pressure. To Wade’s horror, both Summers and his successor Phil Gramm backed the IMF. In early March 2001, Wade found himself being agreeing to the IMF’s terms but feeling disillusioned that he had to do so under pressure.

Sierra Leone:
In October 1999, the United Nations (UN) approved the formation of the United Nations Mission In Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) to enforce the peace agreement signed by the Sierra Leone Government and the RUF to end the civil war there. The UNAMSIL had a broad mandate, including to use force, to compel the disarmament of both the Sierra Leone Armed Forces and the rebel Revolutionary United Front (RUF). In early May 2000 however, a few RUF personnel were detained by the UNAMSIL. When the UNAMSIL refused to hand back their personnel, the RUF took UNAMSIL personnel hostage and began advancing into areas controlled by the Sierra Leone Government. By early May, they came close to Freetown prompting UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to call for the United Kingdom to intervene.

At this critical moment, Prime Minister of United Kingdom Tony Blair dithered. Though he wanted to intervene in Sierra Leone, the place where he truly wanted to intervene was Zimbabwe. Seeing the pressure South Africa was putting on Zimbabwe, Blair requested President of South Africa Thabo Mbeki’s assistance for a joint military intervention to unseat Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. It was only after Mbeki decisively rejected the idea of unseating Mugabe that Blair turned his attention back to Sierra Leone.

By the time Blair authorized Operation Palliser and UK Military Personnel were sent on the ground in late May 2000, President of Nigeria Olesegun Obasanjo had already sent troops. The UK’s soldiers did their bit to restore calm and order in the ground but the delay caused by Blair being tempted to unseat Mugabe meant they were seen as Johnny-come-latelies though President of Sierra Leone Ahmad Tejan Kabbah was only too happy for the intervention.

Nigeria:
The appointment of Anthony Salim as Indonesia’s new minister of trade in January 2001 and boosting the exports of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) to developing countries to increase export earnings, increased the importance of Nigeria to Indonesia. Anthony, formerly the CEO of Salim Group (producers of Indomie instant noodles), had adopted a strategy for his company that Nigeria was to be Indomie’s gateway to West African markets. Now as minister, he was going to mobilize Indonesia’s big FMCG brands to not only gain access to Nigeria’s markets but to also use Nigeria as a launching pad to countries in West Africa such as Togo, Benin, and Ghana in Nigeria’s west, Niger to Nigeria’s north, and Cameroon to Nigeria’s east.

But Nigeria was not only on Indonesia’s radar for economic purposes. One of the hot button issues in Nigeria was the matter of Sharia Law. Under existing regulations, Sharia Law could be allowed in civil cases. In September 1999, mere months after President Olesegun Obasanjo took office, Zamfara State declared that it would adopt Sharia Law for criminal cases. A further 7 states declared that it would adopt Sharia Law in 2000 and several more states declared that it was going to follow suit in 2001.

Nigeria was a nation where Islam and Christianity are deadlocked; nearly equal percentages of the citizenry adhering to these two faiths. Obasanjo was a Christian. Fearful of taking a decisive step, his solution was to state that various state adopting Sharia Law was just a fad and that it would all go away. For this, he was mocked by Muslim hardliners and drew the resentment of Christians. Both Houses of Nigeria’s Legislature urged Obasanjo to take up the matter with the Supreme Court but Obasanjo demurred. When Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin visited Nigeria in June 2000, Obasanjo expressed his amazement that a Muslim majority nation had a Catholic vice president.

President Try received his updates on Nigeria from Indonesia’s Department of Foreign Affairs. bureaucrats in the department noted that when it comes to information on Africa, the Nigerian section was always underlined, marked and on one occasion with the writing “Can’t let this happen in Indonesia” scrawled on it.

Gabon, Zambia, and Kenya:
Gabon was a Non-Permanent Member of the UN Security Council in 1999 that had voted to acknowledge Indonesia’s claim over East Timor, leading to it being put on Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin’s itinerary in June 2000. President Omar Bongo was very friendly and drew parallels between Indonesia’s less than friendly relationship with the IMF with Gabon’s own. Indonesia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita wanted to issue a statement emphasizing this but got into an argument with Sumarlin. The latter pointing out that the IMF’s problems with Bongo was over the Gabonese Government’s reliance on off-budget funds and having a budget deficit. “Not being in line with the IMF does not mean not being economically irresponsible”, argued Sumarlin. The visit ended with a more moderate statement promising exchanges of delegations to learn about each other’s countries.

Also with an axe to grind towards the IMF was Zambia. President Frederick Chiluba had come to power in 1991 and had implemented the IMF’s structural adjustments policies to the letter. By late 1999, he was publicly attacking the IMF saying that the consequence had been stagnant economic growth and increased unemployment. Chiluba called that the “leniency extended to nations that are now faring well economically” be extended to other countries. New IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer in 2000 tersely blamed Zambia’s problems on there being corruption and the lack of institutional reforms.

More cynically, many within Zambia thought that Chiluba was covering up for the fact that his administration was a failure. By early 2001, the effective end of Mugabe’s rule in Zimbabwe, events in Turkey, the stark contrast with the Indonesian economy (which had also asked for IMF assistance but had managed to negotiate itself out of implementing all of the IMF reforms) and popular perception within the country for change proved too much for Chiluba. A plan by certain factions within the ruling MMD Party to move a constitutional amendment to allow Chiluba to run for a third term at the Presidential Elections scheduled in December 2001.

After it had the IMF suspend its aid in 1997 and the terrorist attack on the US Embassy in 1998, Kenya needed all the help it can get. In early 2000, it was President of Kenya Daniel Arap Moi’s misfortune however that the then-IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus visited Kenya after being in Jakarta, Indonesia where the Government of that country unceremoniously asked to get out of the IMF’s program. Camdessus played hardball and would not concede anything even after Arap Moi had formed an anti-corruption team saying that Kenya “had not done enough”. A shouting match ensued and negotiations were suspended once again. In October 2000, Arap Moi became one of few heads of states who attended the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and who made sure he was snapped shaking hands with President Jiang Zemin.

Democratic Republic of Congo:
Congo was in the midst of the Second Congo War. After emerging victorious in the First Congo War and ousting Mobutu Sese Seko in May 1997, President Laurent-Desire Kabila requested the withdrawal of all Rwandan and Ugandan from Congo; Rwanda and Uganda being Kabila’s backers as he fought the First Congo War. Rwanda and Uganda was less than pleased at this development. When a rebellion broke out in Eastern Congo in August 1998, Rwanda and Uganda were quick to back it. Kabila struggled but his capital was saved when Zimbabwe and Angola, and later Namibia, intervened. A ceasefire was signed in July 1999 though its implementation was hindered by Kabila.

A major development occurred in September 2000 when Zimbabwe announced that it will be withdrawing its troops effective January 2001. The ZANU-PF regime there had not fallen but President Robert Mugabe’s reign had come to an effective end. In the intervening months, Kabila focused his troops’ attack on UNITA operations within his regime. It was an attempt to keep Angola onside; UNITA being the rebel forces with which the Angolan government was fighting its civil war with. By November 2000, President of Angola Eduardo Dos Santos gave assurance to Kabila that Congo would not be abandoned. Namibia’s President Sam Nujoma gave similar assurances.

Kabila also saw what was going on in world politics. In October 2000, Kabila sent his son Joseph Kabila first to Beijing, China to attend the Forum On China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and then to Moscow. On both visits, the younger Kabila asked for military aid to fight the war. The Russians and Chinese approved of this with the Russians increasing the sales of weaponry to Angola, the Chinese providing the financing, and Angola providing the distribution channel. By August 2001, the Second Congo War continued to rage on, approaching its third year.

Uganda and Rwanda:
For its participation in the Second Congo War, Uganda had all military aid suspended by the United States, a suspension which continued even as power passed from Clinton to McCain. The new Administration in Washington would get its first real look at Uganda when Vice President of the United States George W. Bush came to visit in May 2001. Bush met with President Yoweru Museveni and was impressed with the latter’s efforts to fight HIV/AIDS. But Museveni, recently re-elected, appealed to Bush to ask McCain to lift the military aid on account of Angola and Congo being supported by Russia and China. Bush was sympathetic enough to forward the request to McCain. President McCain refused to budge, saying that the best way to improve the situation was to counter Russia and China’s influence.

In spite of its involvement alongside Uganda, the upper echelons of Rwanda’s leadership knew that its priorities ought to be economic development. In November 1999, Vice President/Minister of Defense Paul Kagame visited Indonesia. Though President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno was away at the time, Kagame got to meet with Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin. Kagame said that he was going to Southeast Asia to copy Singapore’s development experience in Rwanda but said he would be remiss if he did not visit the nation was going to be first to get out of the Asian Financial Crisis. Sumarlin returned the visit in June 2000 when he was visiting African countries. By that time, Kagame had assumed the presidency. Amidst talks of economic cooperation, Kagame offered Rwanda as a market for Pindad assault rifles though Sumarlin demurred.

Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome and Principe:
Mozambique continued to show itself as the Timor Leste’s strongest supporter in Asia. President Joaquim Chissano and Prime Minister Pascoal Locumbi marked the 25th Anniversary of East Timor’s Invasion in December 2000 by attending the inauguration of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Embassy in Maputo. The event was hosted by Vice Chairman of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Mari Alkatiri. Mozambique also marked the 25th Anniversary of the Formation of the Province of East Timor in July 2001 with a ceremony at the aforementioned embassy. The special guest, making the trip from South Africa, was none other than Xanana Gusmao.

Alkatiri’s lobbying of Lusophonic Africa since 1999 had ensured that these former Portuguese colonies were quick to condemn the Singapore Settlement and the accompanying UN Resolution. Since that time however, a few have begun to waver. Sao Tome and Principe, being of close proximity to Portugal, having their economies linked to Portugal, and seeing Portugal’s changing stance towards Indonesia, began to change their mind. That the country’s external debt was 5 times the amount of the country’s GDP caused the Government to begin shifting its stance. It sent representatives to the inauguration of the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile Embassy in Mozambique but did not sent representatives to mark the 25th Anniversary of East Timor’s incorporation into Indonesia. Cape Verde, much like Sao Tome and Principe, was an island nation with close links to Portugal, stayed the course.

Guinea Bissau issued a statement but otherwise stayed away from the events held in December 2000 and July 2001, being preoccupied with an unstable peace.

Angola supported Mozambique and Timor Leste, the largest of the Lusophonic African nations and the first, almost immediately, to reject the UN Resolution accepting East Timor as part of Indonesia. This stance of Angola was not popular, particularly in ABRI Headquarters and the ABRI Intelligence Agency.

Though Angola made good on its continued support, there were other things on its agenda; the continued civil war against UNITA, its now more prominent role in the Second Congo War, and the IMF suspending its relations with Angola in early 2001. The latter left Angola and smarting and drove it into the arm of the Russians and the Chinese. Though its economy was neglected as a result of its various military commitments, Angola fancied itself to be a regional power in Africa.

Botswana, Ghana, and Tanzania:
The experiences of Gabon, Zambia, and Kenya with the IMF would always be contrasted to that of Botswana, Ghana, and Tanzania who were seen as the IMF’s “golden boys” in Africa. President of Botswana Festus Mugae’s background was actually as an economist at the IMF. But even without Mugae’s IMF background, Botswana was already looked upon favorably in the West for being a stable demoracy in Africa.

Ghana was another one looked favorably upon by the IMF, being hailed as a “star pupil” for its implementation of IMF reforms even though implementing IMF reforms had caused a stagnant economy. This economic situation provided the backdrop to the 2000 Presidential Elections in which John Kufuor of the National Patriotic Party (NPP) overcame Vice President John Atta Mills of the National Convention Party. The momentous occasion however, would come in January 2001 when President JJ Rawlings, who wad governed first as the leader of a junta and then as a popularly elected president for two terms, handed over power peacefully to Kufuor.

Kufuor quickly. On the political side, Kufuor had further guaranteed freedom of the press by abolishing libel laws in Ghana and on the economic side, he further slashed fuel subsidies. No less than President of United States John McCain hailed the changes being made, saying that Ghana was a “beacon” for new democracies and that Kufuor was a “model” to be followed for authoritarian regimes to follow as it transitions into democracies.

Going from strength to strength and another example IMF liked to use to say that their reforms could facilitate growth was Tanzania. In October 2000, President Benjamin Nkapa was elected on strong economic performance which saw him cut inflation and increase investment in the country. All this, IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer said is due to Nkapa’s commitment to implementing structural adjustments in the economy.

Namibia:
In January 2001, after Zimbabwe began its troop withdrawal, there were internal rumblings in the Namibian Government about whether Namibia should do the same. Holding a cabinet meeting, President Sam Nujoma quickly knew what was up. Mandela had handed the reins in South Africa, Mugabe had lost it (with as much face saved) in Zimbabwe, and now Nujoma realized that he was next as far as when founding fathers in Southern Africa going off into the sunset were concerned.

Then- Indonesian Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti led a trade delegation to Namibia in July 2000 as part of Indonesia’s diplomacy to increase trade with the non-permanent members of the UN Security Council in 1999 who had voted to acknowledge the Singapore Settlement.

South Africa:
Following in the footsteps in Nelson Mandela was not easy. But it was why President Thabo Mbeki took steps to build his own legacy by seeking to make South Africa a flourishing economy and a regional power. On occasions, Mbeki can go too far in going his own road by, for example, denying the existence of AIDS in July 2000.

Mbeki’s orientation was towards the international stage. In September 2000, the African Renaissance and International Cooperation Act was passed, putting closer international cooperation, starting with African countries, into legislation. Mbeki also seemed to be reenergized in his role as Chairman of the NAM with the assumption of the United States and Russian presidencies by John McCain and Yevgeny Primakov respectively. He lobbied hard for Bangladesh to commit to hosting the NAM Summit in 2001 despite it being a tense election year and managed to get the latter nation’s commitment. Speaking afterwards in the press conference, Mbeki said that the NAM has now become more relevant than ever.

On one issue Mbeki deferred to Mandela: Zimbabwe. Mbeki kept abreast of what was happening in Zimbabwe in early to mid-2000 and had intended to take a softer line towards President of Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe. Information from Mandela’s inner circle revealed that he had felt guilty for not standing up “Strongly enough” on the issue of East Timor in the final days of his presidency and had become determined that he would not compromise on Zimbabwe. Mbeki at last decided that on this issue, he was going to defer to Mandela’s wishes.

Zimbabwe:
The power of President Robert Mugabe faded away in 2000. In February 2000, a referendum was held in Zimbabwe to approve or reject a constitutional amendment which would allow the government to seize farms owned by white farmers without giving them compensation and hand them to black farm owners. In what was seen as a rebuff to Mugabe, the proposed constitutional amendment was rejected with Leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai leading the charge. Despite the referendum results, however, the nation began to report increasing cases of land invasions as gangs began to forcibly seize white-owned farms though Mugabe would dub these land invasions as something which happened “spontaneously”.

International condemnation was directed at Mugabe. Leading the charge on the continent was South Africa’s Mbeki who said in March 2000 that what Mugabe was doing was endangering Zimbabwe’s economy and the economies of the nations surrounding it, including South Africa. Mandela himself showed where he stood, saying that it was time for Mugabe “to go”. Mandela’s strong condemnation of Mugabe helped to build momentum against Mugabe both in Zimbawe and abroad with the emphasis being put on ensuring that Zimbabwe’s House of Assembly Elections were free and fair as a prelude to political change. Under international pressure, Mugabe found that any effort at intimidation by his ZANU-PF party was quickly reported to international observers in the country. The populace itself seemed more emboldened at standing up to Mugabe

There was one final piece of defiance with the outgoing Zimbabwean Parliament passing a law to allow the Government to seize land from white farmers in April 2000. But in June 2000, at the House of Assembly Elections, a mortal blow was landed on Mugabe’s regime. Of the 120 elected seats, Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC got 62 seats while Mugabe’s ZANU-PF got 58 seats. Mugabe only retained control of the House of Assembly by the fact that the country’s constitution allowed him to appoint the other 30 unelected seats.

In the aftermath of the election there was a lot noise coming Mugabe’s way. Tsvangirai called on Mugabe to “heed” the people’s aspirations while Prime Minister of United Kingdom Tony Blair took a harder line saying that the elections should be considered a “vote of no confidence” in Mugabe. Mbeki and Mandela took a more subdued line, concerned that despite losing in a referendum and a legislative election, Mugabe still controlled the Armed Forces, the security apparatus, and was thought to also hold control over the armed gangs.

In the end, it seemed that the Mugabe regime’s own inner workings that did Mugabe in. In July 2000, after the new House of Assembly had been sworn in, Mugabe named Minister of Justice, Legal, and Parliamentary Affairs Emmerson Mnangagwa as prime minister, an office that for the last 13 years had been combined with that of the presidency. In the coming months it became clear that Mnangagwa was becoming more prominent while Mugabe was on the wane. The forcible seizure of white farm land was suspended if not ceased while Zimbabwe committed itself to begin withdrawing troops committed to the Second Congo War in January 2001.

Those in the know said that Zanu-PF had pressured Mugabe to make an “honorable exit” by slowly transferring power to Mnangagwa so that the latter could establish himself ahead of the Presidential Elections in 2002 where he would be expected to face Tsvangirai. Apparently two defeats at the polls were enough for Mugabe to be seen as having lost his right to rule, even within the ranks of his supporters.

---
That's Africa down. The further one gets the smaller the butterfly wings are felt but in Africa, I wanted to highlight what Try looked like to someone some distance away (Ie. Morocco and Tunisia).

One thing that's going come into play ITTL is how the IMF perceives itself and how it is perceived. Indonesia being an economic disaster being butterflied away also means IMF's intervention being a disaster being butterflied away. The IMF came out of its experience with Indonesia thinking that it's not strict enough. Other nations (ie. Zambia) think that it's being screwed over because it follows IMF policies to the letter and not doing so good. Tanzania, Ghana, and Botswana is as OTL here to provide examples of African nations which have done well with the IMF.

What happens in Nigeria regarding states declaring itself for the Sharia Law is as in OTL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo#Confronting_ethnic_and_religious_tensions

Indonesia's going to really try to go after markets in the developing world for its FMCG products ITTL.

The big butterfly wing in Africa from Indonesia comes in Zimbabwe here and this is the route the butterflies take (though you're welcome to look through the TL):
-While the world was distracted with the Kosovo War, Indonesia pushed through the Singapore Settlement in which the UN and Portugal acknowledges East Timor to be part of Indonesia.
-Nelson Mandela tried to prevent this but failed, though he succeeded in securing the release of Xanana Gusmao.
-The divergence from OTL is that Mandela's successor as President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, applied pressure on Zimbabwe's Mugabe. In OTL this did not occur.
-Mugabe remains as de jure president but de facto it's Mnangagwa that's in charge.
-Mnangagwa withdraws Zimbabwe from the Second Congo War and that's why the Second Congo War is in this.

 

[GSD310]

The World Circa August 2001:
Europe and the Americas​

United Kingdom:
Prime Minister Tony Blair could not get anything right it seemed. He was booed at a women’s conference in June 2000; a sign that he was not as popular as he seemed. Then he came across as someone who was selective about practicing his principles, intervening in Sierra Leone but only after South Africa rebuffed his request for intervention in Zimbabwe instead of intervening in Sierra Leone from the outset. The fuel shortage in September 2000, the foot and mouth disease of early 2001, Blair was beaten from pillar to post.

Across the bench was the Conservatives’ William Hague, Leader of the Opposition whose task it was to pick up the pieces for his party after its spectacular defeat to Blair in 1997. Able to take Blair on in a parliamentary debate but awkward when presenting an appealing image to the public, Hague fatefully chose not to appeal to the right; reportedly choosing in March 2001 to attack bogus asylum seekers but not claiming that a Labor victory at the next election would lead to the UK becoming a “foreign land”.

The UK Election was held in June 2001. Blair’s popularity had dipped enough to effect the Labour Party, its seats dropping from 418 to 391. Hague managed to unite the Conservatives behind him and increased their seats from 165 to 188. Attacking Labour from its left, Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats increased their seats from 46 to 50.

Though he lost, Hague’s post-election aftermath was happier; with a consensus within the Conservatives that Hague should be retained as leader. Blair’s post-election was less so with elements within the party attributing Labor’s victory to the economy and to the work of Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. Brown, who had leadership ambitions, did little to stop his supporters from making such claims. Meeting with Blair privately after the election, Brown reminded Blair of the latter’s promise to step aside after two terms. Being cornered, Blair agreed to step down from the prime ministership in 2003 saying that he wished to surpass Attlee as Labour’s longest-serving prime minister.

On the foreign policy front, despite different persuasions, Blair was keen to work together with President John McCain. Becoming the first world leader to visit the United States in February 2001, Blair and McCain found that they agreed on countering the influence of Russia and China. Later in the year, Blair supported McCain’s “rogue state rollback” saying that for Saddam Hussein to remain President of Iraq was abhorrent for both the Iraqi people and the international community.

Portugal:
They held cultural events, said that life was great where they’re at and presented their province as a good economic prospect, and appeared on various television interviews. As far diplomatic offensives went, Governor of East Timor Clementino Dos Reis Amaral’s Delegation in early April 2001 had to be hailed a success. At its conclusion Prime Minister Antonio de Sousa Franco chaired multiple cabinet meetings in which the topic was whether or not Portugal should recognize East Timor as an Indonesian province and resume diplomatic relations with Indonesia. After a tough debate, it was agreed that Portugal will recognize East Timor as an Indonesian province though diplomatic relations with Indonesia was a matter for another time.

Franco and Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Manuel Barrosso visited Indonesia to mark the 25th Anniversary of the Formation of the Province of East Timor in July 2001. Their visit and Portugal’s acknowledgement of East Timor as an Indonesian province was seen as the final curtain of the Portugese Empire.

Spain:
Portugal’s shift on East Timor was in no small part to Spain’s lobbying whose retail giant Zara was able to invest in Indonesia and gain access to that market. Initially seeing the advantages of having good economic relations with Indonesia, Spain came to realize the importance of its relations with Indonesia for security reasons.

When Try Sutrisno was out of the country in February 2001, Deputy Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy came to visit Indonesia. In addition to discussing economic cooperation, Rajoy received a special briefing from Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. Among those arrested during Operation Sledgehammer conducted in Indonesia in January 2001 was one Parlindungan Siregar. Parlindungan had been living in Spain recruiting personnel from within the country to be channeled around the world for jihadist purposes with Al Qaeda. Parlindungan’s Al Qaeda links were quickly confirmed and Rajoy signed an MoU with Vice President JB Sumarlin to keep each other’s nations updated, a step nearly on the level of but not actual intelligence sharing.

In early August 2001, Ari Sudewo visited Spain and got an audience with Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar and Rajoy, the latter now minister of the interior in addition to deputy prime minister with authority over counter-terrorism. Ari and Rajoy agreed that Al Qaeda was planning an imminent attack on the United States. Aznar said that unfortunately the United States’ attention was elsewhere.

Scandinavia:
“Though we have focused our efforts in attracting foreign investment from Western Europe, we have received interest from the Scandinavian nations and have adjusted accordingly to accommodate them. By the end of the 2000/2001 Fiscal Year (March 2001), we can point to the following investments as our main successes in Scandinavia:

*Finland’s Nokia is seeking to build a factory in Medan to take advantage of the large domestic market for mobile phones and the habit of Indonesians to have multiple mobile phones as well as to be in a strategically placed location to send their products to Southeast Asia. They will ground break before the year is out.

*Denmark’s Lego has been conducting surveys to Ujung Pandang where they would like to build a factory; once again the large domestic market for childrens’ toys. They will ground break early next year.

*After ceasing operations in Malaysia before their first outlet is finished, Sweden’s IKEA has now begun construction of their first store in Indonesia, which will be in Jakarta, they will open middle of next year”.

-BKPM Annual Report 2000

Netherlands:
The country that passed legislation legalizing prostitution, euthanasia, and homosexual marriage over the end of 2000 and early 2001 was going through something of a second honeymoon with its former colonial possession. Indonesia’s strong economy 2000 drew the interest of both Indonesians living overseas and the Dutch people. Tourists from the Netherlands came flocking to Indonesia during Summer 2000, the 2000 end of year holidays, and once again in Summer 2001 so much so that Dutch tourists constituted the largest contingent of tourists from Europe. Indonesia’s Department of Tourism played a strong game in the Netherlands, up to and including targeting senior citizens to visit former colonial sites in Indonesia.

This second honeymoon was not without controversy for Netherlands had its share of human rights activists who frowned at this relationship. When the Indonesian Government cracked down on alleged extremists in January 2001, Human Rights Watch’s offices in the Netherlands issued a statement saying that Indonesia’s government was “still authoritarian”.

France:
President Jacques Chirac became the first prominent world leader to meet President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov at the UN Millenium Summit in September 2000. Chirac sympathized with Primakov’s argument for multipolarism but felt that he wanted France to play a constructive role as one of the world’s “poles” rather than position itself as a challenger to the United States the way Russia was doing. Their conversation was a dead-end, at least for now.

Chirac was not without his differences with the United States and had criticized President of United States Bill Clinton as acting in increasingly “unilateral” fashion. But Clinton seemed to be the good ol’ days when compared to his successor, John McCain. Chirac was surprised when McCain announced as the latter’s first act as president in January 2001 to announce withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and publicly said that this was mistake. When McCain began to bandy about the idea that he would like to put his policy of “rogue state rollback” in practice, starting with Iraq, Chirac called this an even bigger mistake.

Nevertheless, McCain treated Chirac in a friendly fashion and the two looked amiable in front of the cameras. The Administration understood that its relations with France should be kept as well as possible, considering Chirac’s personal relations with Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder.

Germany:
Across France’s eastern border, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was buoyed. At the end of 2000, Germany recorded its strongest economic growth figures since 1992. For Schroeder, however, strong economic performance was one thing but what he was really after was Germany to become more prominent on the world stage. For him, the real victory was being able to secure the election of Germany’s Caio Koch-Weser as Head of the World Bank. Schroeder’s desire for Germany to be more assertive and pursue its national interests on the world stage made him an easy prey for Primakov. Primakov’s arguments for multipolarism and talks of how Germany deserved a seat on the UN Security Council held great appeal for Schroeder.

Much as Chirac, Schroeder criticized McCain’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the way that he was openly talking about unseating Saddam Hussein in Iraq. However when Russia announced that it was withdrawing from START II in July 2001 at the G8 Summit, Schroeder turned around and criticized Primakov and Russia, a sign that he would not so easily drift to Russia’s cause.

Italy:
It took a lot: defeat at the regional elections, the specter of a New Cold War with Primakov and (possibly) McCain at the helm in the US and Russia, and Forza Italia’s Silvio Berlusconi doing consistently well in the polls. But by September 2000, Prime Minister Massimo D’Alema had managed to unite his coalition of center-left parties behind him and support him for re-election. The only bargain he struck was to appoint the popular and charismatic Mayor of Rome Francesco Rutelli as his deputy prime minister. The election was held in May 2001. Despite the money Berlusconi threw at his campaign, D’Alema and his Olive Tree Coalition ran an organized campaign. D’Alema’s coalition gained 309 seats while Berlusconi’s Freedom House coalition gained 294 seats. At a distant third, the Communist Reformation Party threw its 27 seats behind D’Alema. It was a reduced majority but D’Alema held on.

One of D’Alema’s first tasks in his new term was to host the G8 Summit in July 2001. It proved to be a historical summit, though not for the demonstrations that occurred outside of it. It was when the G8 Summit was held that the US’ withdrawal from the ABM Treaty took effect, that President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov announced that Russia was withdrawing from START II, and that Germany and France expressed their criticism of both sides. As an international observer puts it, it was the summit when the American, Russian, and European “poles” of the multipolar world made themselves heard.

Italy remained Iran’s closest friend in Europe. In August 2001, one of the guests President of Iran Muhammad Khatami welcomed to his inauguration was Minister of Foreign Affairs Lamberto Dini. Dini told Khatami that D’Alema brought up the matter of Iran to McCain. Dini conveyed that D’Alema said that Iran not purchasing weapons from Russia has got to count for something but that McCain would not budge. Khatami asked what needed to be done. Dini said that Italy will continue to vouch for Iran but given McCain’s “unilateral tendencies”, it would be best if Iran looked for safety in numbers.

Austria:
The freeze on bilateral relations placed by EU nations on Austria lasted for more than half a year. It was the Clinton Administration, who had joined the EU in freezing bilateral nations, who first unfroze it in September 2000 out of fear of Russia increasing its influence there. The EU followed suit in October 2000.

The Indonesian and Austrian governments had been working towards an asset recovery treaty. In recent months, however, representatives of the Indonesian government were asking for this treaty to be completed as soon as possible. When the technical limitations were pointed out, the Indonesians settled for focusing and then completing the provisions for freezing of Indonesian bank accounts in Austria.. In August 2001, Indonesian Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro made the trip to Austria to sign the agreement as well as request for a certain bank account to be frozen.

Turkey:
Of the financial crises that struck emerging nations and which required IMF assistance in the late 20th-early 21st century, it was the crisis in Turkey which can be said to have claimed a political scalp.

An economic crisis in late 2000 turned political in February 2001 when the contents of an argument between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit over steps that needed to be taken to solve Turkey’s crisis went public. The markets immediately lost confidence. The Government, which had hitherto maintained a pegged exchange rate, allowed the lira to float. Over the next days and weeks, the lira lost most of its value. Unemployment shot up and there was increasing social unrest in the country.

It was at this juncture that the IMF decided to refuse to suspend further assistance, the reason being that the agreement it had signed with the Turkish Government had mandated the Government to maintain a pegged exchange rate in a bid to control inflation. Now inflation and everything else was out of control, exacerbated further by the IMF. By the second week of March 2001, crowds were demonstrating, calling for Ecevit’s resignation. The situation was dire that Ecevit made an appeal to Washington DC to help them deal with the IMF but Secretary of Treasury Phil Gramm would not be moved. Gramm told Ecevit to abide by the IMF’s conditions.

Stressed and under immense pressure, Ecevit’s health began to betray him; with the coalition government which he led since 1999 following close behind him. It was mid-March when Ecevit’s coalition partners from the Motherland Party (ANAP) and the National Movement Party (MHP) presented him with an ultimatum: resign or the two parties would withdraw from the coalition and force new elections. Ecevit consulted with the Democratic Left Party (DSP) and found confirmation that the coalition partners and an increasing amount of DSP members increasingly felt it would be better if Deputy Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan be given the opportunity to lead Turkey outside of the crisis. For the DSP members, there was no telling how the DSP would do in an election.

Ozkan was not without his aspirations but feigned reluctance at the idea of taking over from Ecevit. He used the coalition’s urging of him to take over from Ecevit to negotiate two conditions: that the coalition has to hold until the next general election which was due in 2004 and that the coalition gives him unconditional support as he guides Turkey to economic recovery. Having received guarantees for these two conditions, Ozkan too submitted his request for Ecevit’s resignation. Abandoned, Ecevit resigned and Ozkan became the new Prime Minister of Turkey.

Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan’s first act was to name Turkish World Bank economist Kemal Darwis as State Minister of Economic Affairs. Darwis’ appointment helped the Turkish Government regain its IMF assistance with the condition that any “consideration of steps or decisions not previously discussed, must be consulted with the IMF”. Ozkan meanwhile called for support from the general populace for the hard slog ahead.

Russia:
Yevgeny Primakov completed his political journey to the top when he took his oath to become the new President of Russia in August 2000. His inauguration was watched on a world nervous on whether or not he would bring about a new Cold War. In his inaugural address, Primakov called for a multipolar world in which the “dominant power in the world” is balanced by nations “combining strategically” to provide an alternative source of influence in the world. For domestic consumption, Primakov also spoke for Russia taking its place as a great power once again.

One of Primakov’s first act as president was to resign the prime ministership he had held since August 1998. As expected, he named Vladimir Putin as the new Prime Minister of Russia. Though there was no formal division of labor, Putin made domestic policy his primary focus. In his first few months in office, Putin enacted tax cuts to stimulate activity in the Russian economy. Though Primakov was not ignorant of what was happening domestically, Putin’s focus there gave him leeway to focus more on foreign policy.

By the time of his inauguration as president, Primakov had become something of a notorious figure on the world stage. Those in the West saw Primakov as a spoiler, eager to play the role of “thorn in the American flesh”. Those who were not of the West, even if they were not exactly pro-Russian, saw Primakov as someone with a knack of calling out the United States and the West on the latter’s “hypocrisy and double standards”.

A case in point was Yugoslavia. In July 2000, whilst still Prime Minister of Russia but already president-elect, Primakov advised President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic against holding early elections. Milosevic, after the rules for presidential elections had been changed to accommodate direct elections, had considered calling an election before the end of 2000. Primakov brought forward intelligence suggesting that the State Department and USAID was channeling assistance, financial and otherwise, through American NGOs to help prepare opposition figures in Yugoslavia to run a successful campaign against Milosevic. “Until this assistance stop”, Primakov argued “It cannot be said that President Milosevic is going into a fair fight.”

Primakov had a clear idea of what he wanted to do; namely establish a strategic triangle comprising of Russia, China, and India to balance the power of the United States. He began by meeting with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the UN Millenium Summit in September 2000. Vajpayee said that he could not commit arguing that he could not see China and India being on the same side. China, on the other hand, was a different proposition. China saw the common cause it could make with Russia to balance the United States. By January 2001, with only two days left until President of United States Bill Clinton was due to leave office, Primakov and President of China Jiang Zemin concluded the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.

Once inaugurated, President of United States John McCain retaliated by giving 6 months notice that the United States would be withdrawing from the Anti Ballistic Missiles Treaty. This meant that the United States would have no restrictions in constructing its missile defense system. Primakov expected no less from McCain. In the months afterwards, Primakov expected more blows to come Russia’s way from the world’s remaining superpower but McCain was pre-occupied with the United States economy entering into a recession.

By mid-2001, McCain was at it again saying that would like to implement his “rogue state rollback” program against Iraq. What was explicit was that McCain would like to see President of Iraq Saddam Hussein unseated from his position. What was implicit was that he wanted to test Primakov’s resolve given his close relationship with Saddam. Primakov remained calm, asking whether the United States intended to conduct military action without the UN Security Council’s authorization the way that it did in Kosovo.

It was July 2001 at the G8 Summit in Genoa, Italy when Primakov first met with McCain. Though the two were pleasant with one another, Primakov found McCain emblematic of the “American worldview that its ideals are correct and should be imposed on the rest of the world”. The G8 Summit coincided with the United States’ withdrawal from the ABM Treaty taking effect but Primakov would make his own impact, announcing that Russia was withdrawing from START II, prompting France and Germany to criticize Russia as harshly as they had criticized the United States when it withdrew from the ABM Treaty.

Brazil:
The decision made by President by Fernando Henrique Cardoso to devalue the Real in early 1999 made for a turbulent few weeks and months as the currency readjusted itself to market value. Cardoso, however, had gotten leniency from the IMF especially as regards cutting the budget deficit. It was not that Cardoso was against cutting budget deficit, it was just the case that he did not want the deficit cut at a rate that would cause social unrest. Brazil’s was a quite economic recovery, its recovery underpinned by 5% economic growth in 2000.

Attending the G-15 Summit in Egypt in June 2000, Cardoso was struck by the similarity of Indonesia’s experience with that of Brazil’s; both nations’ economy having recovered by mixing policies recommended by the IMF with their own country-specific policies. The only difference, from Cardoso’s perspective, being the scale of Indonesia’s economic recovery with growth figures in that country reaching 11.4%. Cardoso got along well with Vice President of Indonesia JB Sumarlin, both being economists. The two renewed their ties at the G-15 Summit in Jakarta in May 2001 with a deal that will be announced by the President of Indonesia Try Sutrisno in his State Address in 2001.

Argentina:
Much as Brazil, Argentina began to manage the crisis it was in balancing the reforms demanded of it by the IMF but getting some leniency from the IMF so that the policies implemented does not cause social unrest especially as regards the cutting of the budget deficit. For President Eduardo Duhalde, the question that lingered in the background was whether or not Argentina should abandon its 1 Peso = $1 exchange rate. This exchange rate mechanism was making Argentina’s exports less competitive at a time when Brazil, Argentina’s primary export market had devalued its currency. At the same time, the exchange rate mechanism was put in place was put in place because Argentina had a hyperinflationary past.

As the US Presidential Election got more intense, Duhalde became worried with Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain’s rhetoric that the IMF should be supported rather than have their conditions “watered down by requests for leniency”. When McCain emerged victorious in the US Presidential Elections, Duhalde made the decision to abandon the 1 Peso= $1 Exchange rate out of the determination that Argentina needed to earn revenue from exports and the believe that the leniency it was enjoying would soon come to an end. The peso quickly lost its value but Argentina’s exports suddenly became competitive. Its cattle (at least until the foot and mouth outbreak) and its soybean exports, for example, quickly found a market in Indonesia.

United States:
By August 2000, the United States Presidential Elections now have their two tickets. The Republicans nominated Senator John McCain and Governor George W. Bush while the Democrats nominated Vice President Al Gore and Senator Evan Bayh. Gore proudly associated himself with the Clinton Administration saying that Clinton presided over a period of prosperity. But McCain would make the effective argument that though it was a time of economic prosperity for the nation, the Clinton Administration was going to come to an end with the United States being in “another Cold War” with Russia.

The two tickets ran a tight race until the Presidential Debates began turning the tide in McCain’s favor. Gore made the argument that Primakov was nothing to worry about and that Primakov’s foreign policy was predicated on disagreeing with whatever the United States was doing. When McCain made his rebuttal, Gore could be heard sighing in disagreement though some saw this as condescension. “He has a good point but does he have to be patronizing to McCain?”

At the end of the day the perceptions that Gore was patronizing, that the Clinton Administration had brought the United States back “full circle” into another Cold War, and news mere weeks before the election that Russia had withdrawn from a 1995 Agreement signed with the United States limiting conventional weapons sales to Iran that was signed by Gore meant that it was McCain’s time. In November 2000, he and George W. Bush were elected President and Vice President of the United States.

---

21st January 2001:
The strains of “Hail to the Chief” played as John McCain finished taking his oath and became the 43rd President of the United States.

“Do you suppose you’ll cross paths with him, Dear?” asked First Lady Tuti Setiawati.

“I’ll see him at APEC or some other summit. Probably will pay him a visit or he will pay me a visit”, said President Try Sutrisno “But other than that, I probably won’t have a lot to do with him.”



---

Maybe it’s because Indonesia’s a middle power instead of a superpower but the flaps of the butterfly lessen by the time we get to Europe and the Americas. Thus far butterflies caused by Indonesia have occurred by other nations (ie. Russia, Brazil, and Argentina) getting some leniency from the IMF the way Indonesia had done.

The ITTL world can be described as either being in a “New Cold War” (The US Point of View) or a “Multipolar World” (The Russian Point of View).

OTL, George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM Treaty in December 2001 and the START II Treaty gets superceded by the SORT Treaty.

Didn’t really want to go to deep with the United States mostly because I don’t want to repeat things and because we’re going to get a good look at the United States in the main TL.

There are definitely a lot of other countries that I haven't mentioned. This is so because of:
-Time constraints (I want to get back to Try, too).
-I can't comprehend what the effects brought about by ITTL Indonesia to them are of if there are any effects.
-They will be better introduced ITTL (Madagascar and Suriname comes to mind)

Of course the ITTL world's not going to be static but this part-OTL and part-ITTL world is going to be the international background for ITTL Indonesia for the remainder of the TL. It's going to be the environment in which ITTL Indonesia

OK we're back to President Try Sutrisno’s 2001 State Address in the next update.

 

[Unknown]

21st January 2001:
The strains of “Hail to the Chief” played as John McCain finished taking his oath and became the 43rd President of the United States.

“Do you suppose you’ll cross paths with him, Dear?” asked First Lady Tuti Setiawati.

“I’ll see him at APEC or some other summit. Probably will pay him a visit or he will pay me a visit”, said President Try Sutrisno “But other than that, I probably won’t have a lot to do with him.”

Famous last words, Try...

 

[Derff]

I just remembered that several people (the cronies of Suharto) still have hundred thousands of acres of land under the Right of Exploitation law. Would ITTL Indonesia government be able to do something about this phenomenon i.e. the lawmakers are conspiring together to make the law benefits themselves?

 

[GSD310]

I just remembered that several people (the cronies of Suharto) still have hundred thousands of acres of land under the Right of Exploitation law. Would ITTL Indonesia government be able to do something about this phenomenon i.e. the lawmakers are conspiring together to make the law benefits themselves?

Haven't addressed land issues yet in the main TL. Research-wise google will give you data about land owned by the Soehartos but not much about the cronies. Would be happy to see them if you happen to have some data.

What has happened in the TL that's probably related is that the Department of Forestry gave essentially a 15-month grace period for forest concession holders to get their affairs in order (Ie. if you've been involved in illegal logging, you've been smuggling timber to Malaysia, now's the time to stop). Lo and behold, however, this is not being taken seriously though the last advise given to Try is that he should make an example out of someone.

9th July 2001:
The President met with Minister of Forestry and Environment Barnabas Suebu. The President asked Barnabas about the progress of the 3 month socialization period and then the 12 month amnesty period for all in the forest industry to get their affairs in order. Barnabas said stakeholders in the forestry industry are taking in the information thus far but there is an air of skepticism from within the Department of Forestry and Environment’s bureaucracy and that the Government would actually do anything to enforce the rules after the 12 month amnesty period.

The President raised an eyebrow at that. Barnabas advised the President that he might want to revoke a forest concession that’s been flouting the rules as a signal of seriousness at the beginning of the 12 month amnesty period before suggesting some names of those whose concessions should be considered for revocation.

The ITTL DPR I don't think would be able to make the law that benefit themselves like Cipta Kerja because it's nowhere near as powerful as OTL DPR.

A Soeharto crony is simultaneously in a better and a worst position ITTL. They're in a better position because there's no May 1998, there's no $1= Rp. 17,000, and there's not that public outrage directed at Soeharto and cronies and wanting something done about them. People are more free to talk about corruption, collution, and nepotism but they would still think twice about calling for people to be tried for corruption in a demonstration.

The cronies are in a worst position because the ITTL Government is still relatively strong. It managed to secure BLBI repayments (without people running out of the country to avoid paying) and managed to put Tommy Soeharto in jail (without Tommy going into hiding, having a judge assassinated etc. as in OTL). So their worry is that if the Government turns their sights on them, they do not have the power to resist.

 

[GSD310]

Aspirations Part I​

Mr. Chairman,
Vice chairmen,
Honorable members of the DPR,
and Indonesians wherever you may be.

Let us first and foremost give our thanks to Almighty God for it is due to His grace and protection that we are all able to gather here today in good health to attend this event.

This morning we stand on the eve of the 56th Anniversary of our Nation’s Independence. 56 years since that morning on 17th August 1945 when Soekarno and Hatta proclaimed our nation’s independence on behalf of all Indonesian people.

Our Proclamation was not a long statement but it contained in it the culmination of a long process. It was the culmination of a long struggle. At first this struggle was a physical one, fought on the battlefield by men and women from all over Indonesia who would become our national heroes against colonizers. Then it became a struggle of ideas. Men and women from all over Indonesia, in organizations rather than in the battlefields, struggled by embracing ideas such as that of One Archipelago, One Nation, One Language.

We were colonized and then occupied. Until we arrived at last at independence.

Yet Independence was not without its own struggles for our journey as a nation has been filled with successes and failures, highs and lows, triumphs and defeats. We have faced returning colonizers to the point that our capital was taken and our president and vice president imprisoned. We have faced separatist rebellions going on at the same time in Sumatra and Sulawesi. We have faced a brazen attempt at a coup d’etat by communists in 1965.

Yet through the resilience of our people, the sacrifices of our heroes, and above all else, the blessing of Almighty God, our nation had weathered the challenges and stood strong!

We look at the past as a source of strength and pride as well as to measure how far we have progressed. But the past is of no use to us unless it guides us in our present struggles and in guiding our present struggles, allow us to lay the foundations of the future.

Honorable members of the DPR, permit me now to not only deliver the State Address to you on the eve of our Independence Day as convention has dictated but also to state the Government’s views on various issues in our national life.

The journey that our nation has embarked on is that of development. We do not want to merely be independent, we want that independence to have substance. The struggles that has led to independence would have been for naught if our people are not well-fed, well-clothed, and well-housed or if they are unemployed or lack access to education and health.

We want our nation to be a just and prosperous society based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution.

The means to achieve this end is national development and our nation, from the time of President Soeharto, has chosen to take this road of national development. Our national development strategy is clear, it is envisioned that a just and prosperous society would be reached in the 50 years since 1969. This 50 year process is divided into two Long Term Development Plans each lasting 25 years. In turn each Long Term Development Plan comprises of five Five Year Development Plans (Repelita), of which we are currently in Repelita VII. In the seventh out of ten five year development plans.

The Government commits itself to continuing this National Development Strategy. The Government seeks to complete the Repelita VII and its targets. In due course, the Government will begin work on the Repelita VIII which will be due to begin at the 2003/2004 Financial Year.

The role of the economy in national development is vital. The employment and business opportunities created, the goods and services produced, the revenues and profit generated are a reflection of whether or not the national economy is doing well. In turn, the amount of revenue the Government can collect and spend on education, health, and housing as well as infrastructure. Our capability to improve our defense and our stature on foreign policy also depend on how well the economy is doing.

Last year, I informed you that the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia is over. This year, I inform you that our economy is strong. The 2001 Recession has taken hold around the world and in our region. It has meant that our exports and the number of foreign tourists which will visit our shores this year will decline. But this has been more than made-up for by our domestic demand, so much so that our exporters have begun to sell more their goods on the domestic market. Our currency is also at its strongest since before the Asian Financial Crisis.”

---
Vice President JB Sumarlin had a front row seat, his chair only a few short meters away from the lectern where the President was speaking. The DPR members applauded the news that the Indonesian economy had remained strong even with an international recession and that was to be expected. But Sumarlin knew the President was not satisfied.

---

“Even with these encouraging developments, even with last year’s economic growth figures, and even with the region struggling with the effects of the downturn, our nation cannot be complacent.

In the immediate years preceding the Asian Crisis, our nation was complacent. We struggled for a few of these years in attracting foreign investment because we were not as competitive as China, India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. We signed up to commitments to open our markets to ASEAN and APEC but we never prepared our industries for the competition that will come. We established a National Car which turned out to be manufactured in South Korea and imported to Indonesia without having to pay any duties. We thought it was nothing when our currency began to lose its value in July-August 1997. We even thought for a short while during the Asian Financial Crisis that the common practice of dispensing special favors to those close to power to continue.

But at the time we had three decades of economic growth and increased living standards behind us. We had what the world referred to as strong economic fundamentals. The truth is we were complacent.

The present economic situation must not become an opportunity to become complacent. On the contrary we must use see the current situation as an opportunity to advance further down the road of national development so that we can become the great nation that we know we can become.”

---
Sitting at his table with the vice chairmen of the DPR, Chairman of DPR Harmoko could see a lot of wincing coming from the direction of the DPR’s PKPB members. In the nearly 4 years that he had been in office, Try never spoke ill of Soeharto. Yet there was the President openly blaming the nation’s unreadiness to face the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 on his predecessor.

---

“Mr. Chairman and honorable members of the DPR,

Permit me and the Government to renew our commitment to the people, to the nation, and to the goal of national development by outlining a set of aspirations for our nation to work towards:

Relatively High Economic Growth and Low Inflation:​

The Government aspires to a relatively high level of economic growth. We commit to this goal not for its own sake or for the sake of an impressive looking number, but because a higher level of economic growth will create more employment opportunities, increase living standards, and reduce poverty. More broadly speaking, a higher level of economic growth will allow us to increase our economic weight in the world and increase our influence.

This economic growth must be coupled with low inflation otherwise the gains of economic growth will be wiped out. When we think of inflation, we think of the dark ages in the 1960s when inflation was in the triple digits. We are far from these state of affairs but we cannot take anything for granted.

Infrastructure Development:
The Government seeks to achieve this aspiration of relatively high economic growth and low inflation by putting emphasis on infrastructure development.

In the coming months and years, the Government is seeking to plan, build and complete toll roads, road networks, bridges, airports, ports, railway tracks, dams, irrigation networks, electricity powerplants, telecommunication networks, and various other forms of infrastructure throughout the nation. We want these infrastructures to facilitate and encourage economic activity and therefore stimulate economic growth. We want these infastructures to push costs down prices and therefore inflation by making even the furthest reaches of our large archipelago accessible for the movement of goods, services, and people.

I have no doubt that ours will be a challenging road when it comes to infrastructure but this is no reason not to try.

This is why today I am announcing the following:

The Central Government, with the Provincial Governments of Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Java also contributing funds, will complete the Trans-Java in three years time. It is the Government’s target that by Independence Day 2004 Merak in West Java and Banyuwangi in East Java will be linked and that Jakarta and Surabaya will be linked by a toll road…”

The DPR members, notably from the PKPI applauded this announcement.

“Furthermore, I also make the announcement that I have approved the proposal, with funding contribution to be made by the Central Government, of the Provincial Governments of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, and Lampung to construct a Trans-Sumatran Toll Road. Both of these projects are signals of the Government’s commitment…”

More applause from the DPR members.

“These projects are signals of the Government’s commitment to infrastructure development.

Producing Not Merely Consuming:
In addition to infrastructure development, we must support high growth and low inflation by balancing our society’s economic tendencies.

Our recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis can be traced back to the second half of 1999 when the currency has been stabilized, the BLBI repayments have been guaranteed, the positive effects of the May 1998 Stimulus are being felt, and businesses began to feel more secure employing again. But It was the consumers’ confidence to spend their money on goods and services which truly signaled that our economy had recovered. Now in 2001, it is once again consumer demand that has kept our economy shielded from the international downturn that had driven many countries into recession.

But economics is about balance. Consumption of goods and services means that the economy is not idle, that there is economic activity. At the same time, if the balance of economic activity in this country is tilted too far in favor of consumption then we will be simply that, a nation of consumers; consuming goods both domestic and foreign alike.

Our capacity to consume must be matched with an increase in productive capacity. It is in addition to pushing infrastructure development, the Government is facilitating the expansion of domestic investment across various sectors. Most recently the Government in recent times the Government has seen fit to increase interest rates, placed a ban on shops selling their goods on credit on consumers, and tightening criteria for business credit. This is to ensure that funds are put to productive use in the economy.

Multi-Dimensional Approach to Development:
Fellow Indonesians,

Economic development cannot be said to have occurred if no less than all Indonesians have felt the benefits of economic development. To that end the Government is committed to a multi-dimensional approach in development comprising rural, urban, and development in Eastern Indonesia.

In rural areas, it means ensuring that those in villages have access to electricity, sanitation, and clean water.

In urban areas, it means making sure that our cities have amenities such as sidewalks, parks, and public transport to accommodate our growing urban population.

Across the nation, it means that economic development is felt in Eastern Indonesia as much as it is in Western Indonesia; felt in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya as much as it is in Sumatra, Java, and Bali.

Nobody is being left behind. It is in the nation’s interest that development occur in our villages, cities, and across in our nation for it means that the nation’s resources will be fully mobilized in the pursuit of high economic growth and low inflation aspiration I have mentioned.

A Resilient Industry and A Strong Agriculture​

Mr. Chairman,

As a Presidential Aide-de-Camp, I have often listened to President Soeharto convey his ideas on the process of national development. A common thought that oftened crossed his mind was that the economy must be supported by a resilient industry and a strong agriculture.

As President, I am often reminded of this aspiration that our nation will have a resilient industry and a strong agriculture and have decided to make it my own…”

An applause rippled through the DPR members, led by the PKPB members who applauded more for the mention of Soeharto than they did for Try.

“A Resilient Industry:
Honorable Members of the DPR,

In the last 3 decades, our industrial sector has rapidly expanded. On average, it has grown at a faster rate than the economy and its contribution to our economy when compared to other sectors has also grown larger. But this sector is not without its problems.

The year I took office, the following numbers may be found in relation to the percentage of raw materials, intermediate goods, parts, and components that are imported across various industries. 45% of inputs in the chemical industry are imported, 56% in the transport equipment industry, and 70% in electronic goods. In the textile, garment, and leather industries the number ranged between 40-43%. In footwear, this is 56%.

We should take note that in 1992, Indonesia had signed on to the ASEAN Free Trade Area the implementation of which is currently suspended and that in 1994, Indonesia had also committed to APEC’s Bogor Goals: all developed countries in APEC to have 0 tariffs by 2010 and all developing countries to have 0 tariffs by 2020.

If we are already recording high numbers of imported parts and components without these international trade agreements having come into effect, we can only imagine what it would be like with these agreements in effect.

Industry must be resilient and resilient in four ways:

-Industry must be resilient for its own sake. Its structure must be deepened and linkages made from the upstream to the downstream so it can be become stronger and therefore resilient. More of the intermediate goods, parts, and components must be manufactured and processed here in Indonesia rather than imported.

Aluminium is widely used in daily life and its raw material is bauxite, of which our nation has sufficient supplies of. Yet for the most part, we export the bauxite raw; importing it after it had been processed overseas as alumina so that it can be processed here as aluminium. So to strengthen our nation’s position in this industry our focus must be to build bauxite smelter to process bauxite to alumina. And in this regard, we must acknowledge PT Antam’s joint venture with its Japanese partner currently underway in West Kalimantan, which will see the construction of a bauxite smelter.

-Industry must be resilient in the sense that it must be able to fulfill and support the demand placed on it by the economy. In the last 12 months, our construction sector has become to pick up pace with houses, apartments, shop-houses, warehouses, and office buildings. An active construction sector must necessarily mean increased demand for building materials such as steel. But with steel we make the same mistake as aluminium, we export raw iron ore and then import it when it has been processed overseas into sponge iron so that it can be processed in Indonesia into steel. Tomorrow, after the Independence Day celebrations, I will be attending a teleconference where there will be a groundbreaking for PT Meratus Jaya’s factory in South Kalimantan. PT Meratus is a joint venture between PT Antam and PT Krakatau Steel.

-Industry must be resilient so that our nation is better placed to compete with imported goods at the present time and in the future if and when the international trade agreements we sign come into effect. When AFTA comes into effect and the trade liberalization targets of the Bogor Goals achieved, the only thing separating us from competition will be the quality of our products.

-Industry must be resilient so that in the event of another currency crisis, there are sufficient levels of parts and components manufactured in the country and the economy does not slow down due to a lack of intermediate goods or spare parts which must be imported from outside the country. In the Asian Financial Crisis, our transportation sector broke down and movement of goods, services, and people slowed down because the imported spare parts of our buses and trucks became more expensive as a result of the Rupiah losing its value.

Fellow Indonesians,

To achieve these goals, our various industries must move as one unit. None more important than the other but each as important as each other. We need a strong and resilient handicraft and furniture industries to easily absorb employment just as we will need a strong and resilient steel and cement industries to provide material for our construction sector. Be they large or small, upstream or downstream, labor intensive or capital intensive, operating in a large factory or in a small shop, and everything in between, our industry must move as one.

For this reason, I have seen fit to abolish the Strategic Industries Management Agency (BPIS) and made it a part of the Department of Industry; the term Strategic Industries implying that industries not defined as such are non-strategic.

Even so, let me state for the record that the Government is committed to all of the industries in the country and it is committed to all industries because it is a sign of our nation’s progress and source of pride.

This is why, with a feeling of great pride, I announce that on 23rd August 2001, the 25th Anniversary of the foundation of the Indonesian Aviation Industry (IPTN) will launch its third N250 airplane prototype and…”

A thunderous applause filled the DPR building, led by the PKPI DPR members but with the PKPB DPR members joining as well. Try waited patiently until the applause died down.

“…And at this event, this third N250 prototype will also be making its first flight.”

A standing applause from all those present greeted this announcement.

“A Strong Agriculture:
Mr. Chairman,

Though we see our factories are visible symbols of our nation in development, we cannot forget our agricultural sector. Though agriculture sector’s share of the economy had declined over the last three decades but it remains the sector that employs most of our workforce. During the Asian Financial Crisis, it was a place of refuge for those who were laid off in the cities and decided that they had better prospects for employment by returning to the villages, working in the fields and harvesting crops.

Even more than just a place for refuge, our agricultural sector has thrived during the last few years. The upside of the Asian Financial Crisis is that the price of agricultural commodities such as coffee and rubber had become more competitive on the world market leading to increased volume in agricultural exports. Domestically, our agricultural sector’s progress has been steady and we can say that we were never in shortage of food commodities both during and after the Asian Financial Crisis.

Our agriculture is strong but it must be made stronger still.

It must be made strong in the sense that it must become an economic sector in resurgence, not in decline. And the way to do this is for agriculture to add value to its commodities. We do this by processing our agricultural commodities. Our corn farmers can, for example, produce corn egg rolls, corn chips and they can even package their corn and sell it as animal fodder in their village. Our orange farmers can sell orange juice or orange candy. We can go all day with the possibilities.

For this reason, I have formed the Agribusiness-Agroindustry Coordination Committee last June to function as a coordinating forum across various departments and agencies on matters regarding agribusiness and agro-industry. We want to give information on how to manage and run a business, access to credit, access to networks and partners, and provide opportunities for farmers to market their products to both domestic and foreign markets alike.

Honorable members,

Agriculture must be strong in the sense that it must respond to the demands that, not just economy, but the entire nation will place on it. I am talking of course about agriculture’s role to provide food and in particular our staple food.

It was through the efforts of Government policies in the past that this nation achieved Rice Self-Sufficiency in 1984. Since that time, we have lost and regained this position though at the present, we do not have rice self-sufficiency because we are still importing rice.

The Government believes in rice self-sufficiency. The Government believes even more in maintaining secure supplies of staple food in order to manage demand, maintain price stability, and ensure that our people will always have access to staple foods.

Fellow Indonesians,

Today I am announcing to you two new policies as it relates to rice.

First, after a two year transition process, Bulog will cease to purchase rice and will instead begin purchasing unhusked rice. Under good storage conditions, rice can be stored for up to 3 years but unhusked rice can be stored for up to 2-3 years longer. By stocking up on unhusked rice, we will be able to hold on to our rice supplies for longer and lessen the need for rice imports. These unhusked rice can be milled into rice on an as-needed basis, in the process creating additional temporary employment…”

Scattered applause from the PKPI DPR members.

Second, we must add deeds to our words when it comes to staple food diversification. Today I announce that the Department of Agriculture will prioritize, encourage, and facilitate the growing and cultivation of sago in the provinces of Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya. In these three provinces, the priority, funding, resources, and support previously given to rice will now be given to sago. At the same time, we will also be conducting a campaign to consume sago in these provinces.

Consequently, the Maluku, Irian Jaya, and East Nusa Tenggara Provincial Bulog will be undergoing a three year transition process at the end of which, the Bulog in these three provinces will be exclusively stocking up on sago instead of rice…”

The camera panned the DPR members, showing that DPR members originating from these three provinces were applauding the loudest.

“Mr. Chairman,

By holding on to larger supply of rice at any one time and decreasing the demand for rice by encouraging diversification of staple food, the Government will once again achieve rice self-sufficiency.

But more than that, the Government will go even beyond rice self-sufficiency and will bring about diversification of staple food by establishing sago as an alternative staple food!”

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At the ministerial seats, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja led the standing applause and shook hands with the ministers next to him and waved and nodded to others too far away to his seat. State Secretary Edi Sudrajat gave a thumbs up and a nod to Sarwono, the latter had made good on his promise the previous year to take Try and the Government out of Soeharto’s shadow in agriculture.

“That’s Economic Growth and Low Inflation as well as Industry and Agriculture down”, said Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman giving an update “Natural Resources, Human Resources, and Pancasila Society is next.”

Everyone else in the DPR was giving a standing applause, it would have looked unseemly if the PKPB did not join in. Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono led the applause but he had a frown on his face.

“This is not a State Address, this is a campaign speech”, he muttered.

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Part I down.

In writing this part (and the other parts) I consulted with speeches made by OTL Ginandjar Kartasasmita when he was the Head of BAPPENAS. Of course Try’s Government would not copy everything but it gives some idea as to what the New Order was aiming for it did not fall from power. An example is this speech: http://perpustakaan.bappenas.go.id/lontar/file?file=digital/15632-[_Konten_]-Konten 3629.pdf

OTL Trans-Java completed in December 2018. OTL Trans-Sumatera in progress.

Soeharto on resilient industry and strong agriculture is from https://soeharto.co/ke-arah-industri-strategis/

Stats of imported components in the various industries is from https://books.google.co.id/books?id=YsJI4L8yBBwC&printsec=frontcover&dq=indonesia%27s+economy+since+independence&hl=id&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwik95SLgYDuAhU04XMBHaeuAQcQ6AEwAHoECAQQAg#v=onepage&q=indonesia's%20economy%20since%20independence&f=false p.163

Have not yet determined who the CEO of Antam ITTL but they've certainly been busy.

OTL Habibie aimed for 4 prototypes of N-250 and completed two before Soeharto agreed to stop funding in 1998 as part of the IMF’s conditions. https://finance.detik.com/industri/...eri-nama-4-versi-pesawat-n-250-buatan-bandung

The idea of Bulog purchasing unhusked rice has been mentioned a lot over the years but I specifically drew it from this Rizal Ramli interview https://successfulsocieties.princet...s/interviews/transcripts/3235/Rizal_Ramli.pdf p.18

The idea of diversifying staple foods has also been mentioned a lot over the years. No specific source that I drew the idea to emphasize sago in those three provinces from but I thought it was in line with Try continuing the road to national development which Soeharto begun but all the while fixing problems and adding his own touch on things.