Hope, Change, and Nutmeg - A US political timeline

The thing is, that exact same thing happened IOTL. I just changed a few words to account for Joe losing instead of winning re-election, and fixed some typo/editing issues. See, e.g. here for the original press release (there eventually ended up being a legal fight over it - a Lieberman supporter claimed that he'd actually joined the party first and should be chairman himself.)

Since this TL hasn't diverged that far from OTL yet, it's thus easy for me to poach actual events for inspiration and humor :D
 
The thing is, that exact same thing happened IOTL. I just changed a few words to account for Joe losing instead of winning re-election, and fixed some typo/editing issues. See, e.g. here for the original press release (there eventually ended up being a legal fight over it - a Lieberman supporter claimed that he'd actually joined the party first and should be chairman himself.)

Since this TL hasn't diverged that far from OTL yet, it's thus easy for me to poach actual events for inspiration and humor :D

Yea, its really funny
 
Part 0.12 - Election season continues

628x471.jpg

More votes trickle in before Tennessee recount
New tally is Corker - 904,100; Ford - 903,663



Meet+The+Press+KxMLJAWS7Tol.jpg

Harold Ford Jr defends decision to seek a recount on Meet the Press: "Let's just go through to make sure the votes were properly counted and nothing has been missed."
Republicans slam Ford as a 'sore loser' for requesting the recount.





IVotronic_Banner.jpg

ES&S iVotronic 8.0.1.2 machines centerpiece of recount controversy

Significant undervoting in Democratic-leaning Shelby and Davidson counties (Memphis and Nashville) draw attention - tens of thousands voted in the Governors race, but did not vote for Senate. Will Ford launch a lawsuit?

Most counties in Tennessee use only direct-recording electronic machines without a voter-verified paper audit trail. This means that for almost all votes cast in Tennesse, only an electronic review and retabulation can be conducted, and there's no way to do a proper recount.

According to voting activist Bernard Ellis, "In Tennessee, 93 of our 95 counties use nonverifiable, paperless touch-screen voting machines. Last week, over one in every six Tennessee counties reported problems with this equipment. Our state is not alone, but (sadly) it is now one of the worst states for voting security and accountability in this nation."




041215_ohio_recount_hmed.grid-6x2.jpg

Recounts starting smoothly in Ohio's 15th district, other Congressional districts around the country.



homelogo.gif

Poll finds Henry Bonilla leading in runoff election​
In Texas's 23rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla appears to edge Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, 53% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WOAI-TV San Antonio. Democrats have targeted the seat, hoping to make additional gains after their shellacking of House Republicans two weeks ago.

Still, veteran political observers believe that the edge lies with incumbent Henry Bonilla, who enjoys a massive cash advantage with challenger Ciro Rodriguez's campaign heavily in debt. The DCCC has began making significant independent expenditures in campaign, totaling $400,000 thus far in ad production, media buys, and direct mailing. But it's unclear if they can close the gap with Bonilla's superior organization, popular support, and financial base.

Further compounding issues for Mr. Rodriguez is the fact that the runoff date is December 12th, coinciding with the Day of Our Lady of Guadalupe, one of the most important dates in the Mexican calendar. Most of Rodriguez's supporters would thus be celebrating in church or at home - drawing them to the polls may be difficult as a result.


auto250_KarenCarter.jpg

Karen Carter Peterson believed likely to win in LA-02
The state representative will face eight-term representative William J. Jefferson in the runoff election. Jefferson is currently being investigated by the FBI on corruption charges, and was reportedly videotaped receiving $100,000 in a leather briefcase at the Ritz-Carlton hotel. He has also been reportedly implicated in corruption schemes involving an internet company in Nigeria.

Jefferson has often reminded voters about the universal presumption of innocence in his campaign for re-election, pointing out that he has not been charged with a crime and questioning the motives of prosecutors.



LNW_Sheriff_Harry_Lee.jpg

Sheriff Harry Lee blasts Karen Carter, spends own money on anti-Carter campaign
The legendary Jefferson Parish sheriff has excoriated state Rep. Karen Carter, spending $14,000 of his own campaign money on anti-Carter mailings. Not content with that, he then held press conferences for the media to personally expound on his "utter contempt" for the candidate with a profanity-laden rant.

Carter has criticized the Jefferson Parish deputies for preventing residents from fleeing New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. She labeled the actions by law enforcement officers "disheartening and unacceptable" and called for the police involved to be "reprimanded accordingly." The situation had a racial undertone as well - Jefferson Parish is largely white (Sheriff Lee is Chinese) whereas Orleans Parish is mostly black.

Sheriff Lee responded with anger: "She made us look like we're a bunch of yahoos down here, a bunch of racists." He says that he will make sure that Jefferson Parish voters vote against Carter. "They will vote for [Rep] Jefferson or they will stay home," Lee said. He also pointed to Carter's abortion-rights and pro-gay marriage stances as views most of the parish residents do not support.

Conventional wisdom is that Carter is favored by white voters upset by Rep Jefferson's corruption, but this development could throw a new twist into the race. Rep Carter has stood by her remarks in response to the criticism.


web1.jpg

Karen Carter Peterson goes all-in, slams Harry Lee while campaigning in Orleans Parish.
Black supporters of Rep Jefferson angered to learn Harry Lee supporting Jefferson in the race, demand he deny the Sheriff's support and repudiate Lee's comments.
 
Last edited:
Though I hate to complain about lack of replies/posts, it's slightly worrying me - is there anything that readers would like to see more of?
 
Like you've said, this TL is going to snowball as it goes on. As the divergence widens I think there will be more to talk about.

Would love to see the future hold a stronger movement for voting machine accountability, that's a positive change.
 
Part 0.13: Recounts and coin flips

2nd-district-us-courtney-joe1-229x300.jpg

Connecticut: Courtney concedes in CT-02, will not request a recount
Warren Stewart, VoteTrust USA: Ending over a week of speculation, Democratic challenger Joseph Courtney has conceded defeat and will not ask for a further recount of his 434 vote loss to Joe Courtney. The deadline to file legal challenges is Tuesday. State Democratic leaders say they have uncovered a number of voting "irregularities" and may pursue their own elections complaints, but will respect and support Courtney's decision not to legally contest the outcome. Rumor has it that Courtney intends to seek a rematch in 2008, and thus wishes to avoid being perceived as a sore loser.

In related election news, CT Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz announced Wednesday that a 20% audit in 17 voting precincts will be conducted Nov. 22 to 28. This audit will not include precincts in the Second District. The audit, which will be overseen by the secretary's office and by the University of Connecticut computer science department, will involve a hand count of every paper ballot fed into the Diebold AccuVote optical-scan machines that counted votes on Election Day.


180px-Lindastender.jpg

Linda Stender keeps lead in New Jersey recount
As the standard voting system in New Jersey consists of direct-recording electronic machines without a voter-verified paper audit trail, only an electronic review of initial returns was possible for most votes cast throughout the state. This review found no irregularities. A hand recount was initiated among absentee ballots and provisional votes and resulted in a gain of 54 votes for Democrat Stender, and a gain of 122 votes for incumbent Republican Mike Ferguson, narrowing the margin but insufficient to change the overall result.

Madrid-Clinton-Raised-w.jpg

Heather Wilson comes up short in recount - Patricia Madrid elected
New Mexico uses only paper ballots that are tabulated by optical scanners. Candidates or voters initiating a recount may request either a recount conducted by hand or a retabulation conducted by machine, referred to in New Mexico as a “recheck.” Heather Wilson, the Republican incumbent, requested a hand recount which duly proceeded. Election officials have certified a new vote tally of 105,968 votes for state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, and 105,912 votes for Rep Wilson.

hafen5.jpg

Recount finds new winner in Nevada's 3rd district:
Tessa Hafen elected to Congress!

Nevada uses direct-recording electronic voting machines with a voter-verified paper audit trail in its elections. Although a hand recount of 5% of the precincts selected by challenger Tessa Hafen did not find any significant discrepancies, a hand recount of absentee and provisional ballot saw the acceptance of over a hundred improperly rejected votes, resulting in a gain of 129 votes for Democrat Tessa Hafen, and 62 votes for two-term Republican incumbent Jon Porter. As a result, Tessa Hafen has been certified as the winner of the election by a 27-vote margin.


vote-recount.jpg

Ohio recount results in tied election!
After a recount of votes in Ohio's 15th district turned up several 'forgotten' precincts in rural Madison and Union counties which election officials had mistakenly neglected to include in the results, state election officials have certified that the incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) has received 112,670 votes. The challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has also received 112,670 votes.

Pursuant to the Ohio Revised Code, Title 35, Chapter 3505.33, "When the board of elections has completed the canvass of the election returns from the precincts in its county, in which electors were entitled to vote at any general or special election, it shall determine and declare the results of the elections determined by the electors of such county or of a district or subdivision within such county. If more than the number of candidates to be elected to an office received the largest and an equal number of votes, such tie shall be resolved by lot by the chairman of the board in the presence of a majority of the members of the board." As such, it appears that the next Congresswoman representing the citizens of Ohio's 15th Congressional District shall be selected by lot.



no-online-gambling.jpg

Conservatives denounce "public gambling" in Ohio's 15th District
Although candidates Deborah Pryce and Mary Jo Kilroy have agreed on a public coin flip as the method of resolving the election by lot, some social conservatives have denounced the decision as "public gambling."

Motivated by anti-gambling concerns, they point to Ohio's Revised Code, Title 29, Chapter 2915.04, which states "No person, while at a hotel, restaurant, tavern, store, arena, hall, or other place of public accommodation, business, amusement, or resort shall make a bet or play any game of chance or scheme of chance.... Whoever violates this section is guilty of public gaming. Except as otherwise provided in this division, public gaming is a minor misdemeanor. If the offender previously has been convicted of any gambling offense, public gaming is a misdemeanor of the fourth degree." They claim that an election board counts as a 'public accommodation', and that the event will set a bad example to children.


ford-pr.jpg

Tennessee review finds narrowed margin, but Harold Ford Jr still comes up short
A review of electronic votes and recount of paper ballots (primarily absentee ballots and provisional votes) resulted in a gain of 1,048 votes for Harold Ford Jr (D), and 624 votes for his opponent Bob Corker Jr. The tally is now 904,724 for Mr. Corker and 904,711 for Mr. Ford - a margin of only 13 votes. The ball is now in Mr. Ford's court as to whether he wishes to pursue legal action over what state Democrats call "worrying irregularities" with undervotes on ES&S iVotronic voting machines in Davidson and Shelby counties. If he decides against, Mr. Corker shall be the next U.S. Senator from the state of Tennessee.


628x471.jpg

Democrat Ciro Rodriguez elected in surprise 56-44 blowout
Election observers in Texas's 23rd district expected incumbent Henry Bonilla to triumph in the low-turnout runoff with the advantages of incumbency, and the political machine that he'd built. At best, they expected Rodriguez to make it a close race. Even Democratic operatives were surprised to learn that they had not just won the election, but done so comprehensively by double digits.

In retrospect, the decision by state Republicans to schedule the runoff on December 12 - the Feast of Our Lady of Guadalupe, a day of worship and celebration for many Latinos - appears to have contributed to the margin of Rodriguez's victory. According to a veteran GOP operative who insisted on remaining anonymous, "The state scheduled the election for December 12 since we thought that Hispanics would be too busy worshiping at church to have time to vote. In retrospect, we forgot to consider that many churches double as polling places."

Karen-Carter-Peterson-FB.jpg

Karen Carter Peterson elected in narrow polarized victory
Election results by parish:

Jefferson Parish (100/100 precincts reporting):
Karen Carter Peterson - 3,066 (20.38%), William J. Jefferson - 11,982 (79.62%)

Orleans Parish (392/392 precincts reporting):
Karen Carter Peterson - 31,297 (59.41%), William J. Jefferson - 21,386 (40.59%)

Total: Karen Carter Peterson - 34,363 (50.73%), William J. Jefferson - 33,368 (49.27%)


Disgraced eight-term Representative William J. Jefferson lost his re-election bid, rejected by voters at the polls yesterday. Contrary to expectation, the election remained a tight-fought race to the end, and Jefferson nearly pulled it off with overwhelming support from white voters in Jefferson Parish, thanks to Sheriff Harry Lee's barrage of criticism of Jefferson opponent Karen Carter Peterson. However, his remarks appear to have also created a backlash in the larger Orleans Parish among Jefferson's black voter base, enough for Peterson to clinch a majority.

The root of the disagreement lies in an incident last year during Hurricane Katrina, when Jefferson Parish police forcibly stopped a crowd of predominately black storm victims from escaping downtown New Orleans after being stranded there for days. The cops fired warning shots over the heads of the crowd, preventing them from seeking refuge. Carter Peterson repudiated and criticized the Jefferson police's actions, causing Harry Lee to launch a diatribe against her.


 
Last edited:
Some notes for readers:

- Recount results were determined randomly (with some input from me based on voting method, etc.) I was pretty surprised when I saw a tie result in OH-15.

- Ciro Rodriguez did in fact win a blowout victory in a race everyone expected him to lose IOTL. The explanation I provided for why that happened (and why the election was scheduled on the holiday for the first place) is one that I've heard suggested and liked, but there's no actual evidence for it IOTL.

- IOTL, William J Jefferson easily won re-election thanks to heavy support by white voters in Jefferson Parish (before losing in 2008 to Republican Anh Cao, and being convicted in 2009.) He managed win Jefferson Parish support through Sheriff Harry Lee, and was never seriously questioned or attacked over it, despite the incident having massive potential to hurt his popularity with black Orleans Parish voters. ITTL, that went a bit differently thanks to butterflies.

With the election mostly over, I've also used up most of my prepared material so expect a bit of a delay for the next big update (the coin flip election will be resolved soon, no worries)
 
Loving this timeline so far. Good to see Lieberman out and love the guy who made himself chairman of the Connecticut for Lieberman party. Also, curious to see how the tie plays out.
 
Part 0.15 - Election wrap-up
kilroy500.jpg

Kilroy triumphs in coin toss
Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy has defeated Deborah Pryce in the coin-toss decided election



010_harold_ford-300x300.jpg

Harold Ford Jr decides against contesting election
Rumor has it that he plans to run again in two years and doesn't want to be perceived as a sore loser.


Map of 2006 election results below (top: Senate, center: Governors, down: House.) Light blue corresponds to Democratic pickups; light red to the singular Republican pickup, while yellow is Independent (Bernie Sanders in Vermont.)

2006 election results:
Senate seats: 6 Democratic gains.
Gubernatorial elections: 7 Democratic gains
House elections:
40 Democratic gains (39 from Republicans, 1 from a Democratic-caucusing Independent)
1 Republican gain
Net: +39 Democratic gains

ATL Election maps 2006.png
 
Last edited:
Part 0.16 - Tennessee Blues
!!tuchthis.jpg

Netroots cry foul over Harold Ford Jr concession
They point to mathematical discrepancies in undervoting between Shelby and Davidson Counties and surrounding counties. One analysis posted on the liberal Dailykos website compares undervotes between the two different types of early voting in Shelby County. In mail-based early voting with optical scan paper ballots, undervotes were about 2.4% of the total vote, according to the Dailykos analysis. In contrast, the analysis claims that in-person early votes, which used ES&S iVotronic touchscreens, saw a 18.5% undervote tally. It further states that overall Shelby country undervotes tallied slightly above 15%, similar to Davidson county - and more than six times the undervote rate in surrounding Tennessee counties.

The analysis claims that this is proof that at least tens of thousands of Tennessee voters lost their constitutional rights due to machine malfunction. As such, some liberal bloggers have called upon the now Democrat-controlled Senate to refuse to seat Senator-elect Corker, instead voiding the election results and calling for a new election.


map1_votingmachines630.png

TACIR to consider paper ballot question
The TN Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations(TACIR), a permanent nonpartisan body created in 1978 by the TN General Assembly, will begin a study of Tennessee's current electronic touchscreen method and whether the adoption of paper records would improve the integrity of the election process. They point to a recent outpouring of emails and messages received from Tennessee voters over the past few weeks as influencing their decision to begin this investigation. The result of the commission will be non-binding, but due to its nonpartisan nature would likely have considerable influence over the state legislature.

This decision has already been applauded by several Tennessee state legislators, including Sen. Joe Haynes, D-Goodlettsville. According to Sen. Haynes, "I trust the Commission will do a good job," he said. "This is long overdue and I think it's a vote of confidence issue."
 
Part 0.17 - Election aftermath

Sunday_times_logo_black_and_white.jpg

Andrew Sullivan bemoans Lieberman loss, proposes McCain-Lieberman Party
Sullivan: "Now that the Democratic left has ejected Lieberman, what then if in the Republican primaries, the religious right rejects McCain? Both are too centrist for their party’s base. Both can reach out to the disenchanted in both parties and maybe form a new movement of the centre: a Ross Perot-style movement without Perot’s lunacy."






Brooks_New-articleInline.jpg

David Brooks celebrates victory of the middle in midterm election
In his post-election column for the New York Times, Mr. Brooks celebrated what he characterized as a victory of angry moderates in American politics. He claims that "voters kicked out Republicans but did not swing to the left. For the most part they exchanged moderate Republicans for conservative Democrats", pointing to the victory of conservative Democrats such as Senators-elect Bob Casey Jr and Jim Webb, and the re-election of moderate Republicans such as Chris Shays and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Brooks also points out that despite the electoral defeat of Joseph Lieberman, the election was decided by plurality vote, and Lieberman would likely have been the Condorcet winner of the election - a political theory term referring to the candidate (if any) who would win by majority vote in all possible pairings against other candidates. But due to the first-past-the-post nature of the US political system, extreme voices unfairly triumphed, resulting in the election of Ned Lamont to the US Senate.






fox_fns_lieberman_scandals_120422a-615x345.jpg

Fox News hires Joseph Lieberman
Former Senator Joseph Lieberman, the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2000, has signed up as an analyst for Fox News. He will debut on the O'Reilly factor next month, starting January 16th.

Lieberman lost his Senate seat last month after losing the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont, and then losing once again in a three-way general election with Mr. Lamont and Republican nominee Jack Orchulli.





Dennis_Hastert.jpg

Speaker Hastert upset over scale of Democratic victory, considering exit to politics.
Despite being re-elected by a comfortable double-digit margin last month, the Speaker of the House saw his own party lose control of both the Senate and the House. Rep Hastert has also been dogged by accusations over his role in covering up the Mark Foley sex scandal, and public polling has consistently shown that many Americans wish for him to resign. Our sources indicate that Hastert will not run for the post of House Minority Leader, leaving current House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) likely to take that position. Furthermore, those same sources suggest that Hastert may be planning to retire early from politics, before the end of this new term.
 
Last edited:
There'll be a bit of a wait until the next update, which will cover some of the differences in legislation.

Is there anything people would like to see more of?
 
I like that you're laying the groundwork for 2008, and definitely think more of that will make your case for a fusion ticket (I think it's definitely necessary at this point.)

It's intriguing to think what Sully would do with the choice of a moderate fusion ticket on one side and Obama on the other. The proverbial donkey between two piles of hay.:D

And Lieberman on Fox News! That's burned all Democratic bridges in one sentence. But maybe he can build up a reputation there, cross some aisles later on. Endorse some key moderates in the 2008 primary season.

Would also be interested in seeing more of a leadership fight among the Republicans in the House, which feels hinted at in the last post. But whatever serves your ideas best, of course.
 
Legislation!

Good timing! That'll be the next update :D

I like that you're laying the groundwork for 2008, and definitely think more of that will make your case for a fusion ticket (I think it's definitely necessary at this point.)

It's intriguing to think what Sully would do with the choice of a moderate fusion ticket on one side and Obama on the other. The proverbial donkey between two piles of hay.:D

And Lieberman on Fox News! That's burned all Democratic bridges in one sentence. But maybe he can build up a reputation there, cross some aisles later on. Endorse some key moderates in the 2008 primary season.

Would also be interested in seeing more of a leadership fight among the Republicans in the House, which feels hinted at in the last post. But whatever serves your ideas best, of course.

Note that a lot of these events are still exactly the same as IOTL, with small adjustments. The Andrew Sullivan editorial was an edited version of a post-primary IOTL one, for instance. What do you mean by a fusion ticket?

For Lieberman on Fox News, I actually took a bit of inspiration from Dennis Kucinich, who joined Fox News right after his term ended at the start of 2013. And IOTL Lieberman has said, "Fox Business is my favorite and Fox generally, anything Rupert Murdoch owns." So not too much of a stretch I figured.

Hastert not standing for Minority Leader was exactly what happened IOTL as well. Though Boehner had won Majority Leader in a bit of an upset over Roy Blunt in 2006, he didn't see much competition for Minority Leader (the vote for him IOTL was 168-27-1, with opponents being Mike Pence and Joe Barton respectively.) I don't see much of a reason for that to change, at least not in the near future.
 
Top