Hope, Change, and Nutmeg - A US political timeline

[Seleucus]

To try and account for butterflies, I ended up redoing all the other 2006 election results (House, Senate, and gubernatorial) via small Gaussian random adjustments of the OTL numbers, with a small bias towards Democrats (to account for resources being diverted from other campaigns to the Orchulli campaign.) So for instance, Harold Ford got a bit more lucky in TTL's campaign... which means I'll have to read up on Tennessee recount law. None of the Senate winners are different from OTL, but there'll be a few different faces in the House, all by the luck of the draw.

I'll present House and governor results in the next update. Also, if there's a race I'm glossing over that you'd like to know more about, feel free to ask - I have a whole giant spreadsheet of the results made up (that took a while.)


(The update is on the previous page)

 

[OnlyAlb]

A Harold Ford Jr. comeback would be interesting if he wins the recount. What's the Massachusetts Gubernatorial Results? Good update also.

 

[Seleucus]

I'm trying a timeline style where I keep it somewhat organic and independent of my whims as the author (with some exceptions.) So that means e.g. throwing in random components to the elections and figuring out what the consequences of the different results would be rather than making top-down decisions. So stay tuned, since even I don't know how the Tennessee recount is going to turn out, yet.

The MA governors race wasn't close IOTL, and wasn't close ITTL either - it's close enough the the PoD that the butterflies aren't going to change things by more than 2-3% at most, especially since the PoD was after almost all the candidates were already selected. The full results are:

Deval Patrick (D) - 1,287,676 (57.1%)
Kerry Healey (R) - 761,040 (33.8%)
Other (Christy Mihos, Grace Ross, write-ins) - 205,097 (9.1%)

So Patrick did slightly better than IOTL - the race was even more of a blowout.

 

[Seleucus]

Gubernatorial election highlights:

Alaska
Sarah Palin (R) - 50.16%
Tony Knowles (D) - 39.04%
(Republican hold)

Florida
Charlie Crist (R) - 52.07%
Jim Davis (D) - 45.23%
(Republican hold)

Idaho
Butch Otter (R) - 52.89%
Jerry Brady (D) -43.91%
(Republican hold)

Illinois
Rod Blagojevich (D) - 48.21%
Judy Topinka (R) - 40.89%
Green Party/Write-ins - 10.90%
(Democratic hold)

Maine
John Baldacci (D) - 38.37%
Chandler Woodcock (R) - 29.93%
Other (Barbara Merrill, Pat LaMarche, etc.) - 31.70%
(Democratic hold)

Minnesota
Mike Hatch (D) - 47.57%
Tim Pawlenty (R) - 44.83%
(Democratic pickup)

Nevada
Jim Gibbons (R) - 47.83%
Dina Titus (D) - 43.97%
(Republican hold)

Rhode Island
Don Carcieri (R) - 52%
Charles J. Fogerty (D) - 48%
(Republican hold)

South Carolina
Mark Sanford (R) - 53.6%
Tommy Moore (D) - 46.28%
(Republican hold)



Other Democratic pickups: Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio


​

 

[starwarsfan]

Interesting, looking forward to the recount

 

[Seleucus]

House race highlights (Percentages are 2-way vote, excluding other parties/independents/writeins/etc.)

AZ-05:
Harry Mitchell (D) -103,416 (52.81%)
J.D. Hayworth (R) - 92,425 (47.19%)
(Democratic pickup)


CA-04:
John T. Dolittle (R) - 132,950 (51.57%)
Charlie Brown (D) - 124,866 (48.43%)
(Republican hold)


CO-04:
Marilyn N. Musgrave (R) - 112,662 (51.81%)
Angie Paccione (D) - 104,779 (48.19%)
(Republican hold)


CT-02:
Rob Simons (R) - 122,200 (50.09%)
Joe Courtney (D) - 121,776 (49.91%)
(Uncalled - recount!)


CT-04:
Chris Shays (R) -106,786 (52.13%)
Diane Farrel (D) - 98,055 (47.87%)
(Republican hold)

FL-13:
Christine Jennings (D) - 122,225 (50.67%)
Vern Buchanan (R) - 118,998 (49.33%)
(Democratic pickup)

FL-16:
Tim Mahoney (D) - 115,621 (51.16%)
Mark Foley (R)* - 110,376 (48.84%)
(Democratic pickup)
*Mark Foley's resignation took place too late for his name to be removed from the ballot, but votes cast for him were counted for State Rep Joe Negron, who would have been elected had Foley won the election

FL-22:
Ron Klein (D) - 104,578 (50.87%)
E. Clay Shaw (R) - 101,017 (49.13%)
(Democratic pickup)

GA-08:
Jim Marshall (D) - 81,955 (51.18%)
Mac Collins (R) -78,168 (48.82%)
(Democratic hold)


GA-12:
Max Burns (R) -71,711 (50.40%)
John Barrow (D) - 70,576 (49.60%)
(Republican pickup)


ID-01:
Bill Sali (R) - 117,294 (53.04%)
Larry Grant (D) - 103,854 (46.96%)
(Republican hold)


IL-06:
Peter J. Roskam (R)- 91,847 (51.31%)
Tammy L. Duckworth (D)- 87,163 (48.69%)
(Republican hold)

IN -02:
Joe Donnelly (D)- 103,299 (52.95%)
Chris Chocola (R)- 91,807 (47.95%)
(Democratic pickup)


IN - 09:
Baron Hill (D)- 107,322 (51.83%)
Michael E. Sodrel (R)- 99,752 (48.17%)
(Democratic pickup)


KS-02:
Nancy Boyda (D)- 113,607 (51.46%)
Jim Ryun (R)- 107,161 (48.54%)
(Democratic pickup)

KY-03:
John Yarmuth (D)- 121,040 (51.55%)
Anne Northup (R)- 113,774 (48.45%)
(Democratic pickup)

MI-07
Tim Walberg (R) - 119,161 (51.35%)
Sharon Reiner (D) -112,913 (48.65%)
(Republican hold)

MI-09
Joe Knollenberg (R) - 140,078 (52.40%)
Nancy Skinner (D) -127,224 (47.60%)
(Republican hold)


NC-08
Larry Kissell (D) -60,663 (50.48%)
Robin Hayes (R) - 59,514 (49.52%)
(Democratic pickup)


NH-01
Carol Shea-Porter (D) -102,909 (52.15%)
Jeb Bradley (R) -94,442 (47.85%)
(Democratic pickup)


NH-02
Paul Hodes (D) -104,384 (52.74%)
Charles Bass (R) -93,531 (47.26%)
(Democratic pickup)

NJ-07
Linda Stender (D) - 95,773 (50.15%)
Mike Ferguson (R) - 95,205 (49.85%)
(Uncalled - recount?)


NM-01
Patricia Madrid (D) - 105,846 (50.02%)
Heather Wilson (R) -105,756 (49.98%)
(Recount!)


NV - 02
Dean Heller (R) -117,194 (52.58%)
Jill Derby (D) - 105,675 (47.42%)
(Republican hold)


NV -03
Jon Porter (R) - 97,782 (50.01%)
Tessa Hafen (D) - 97,742 (49.99%)
(Recount!)



NY-03
Peter King (R) -85,743 (52.84%)
David Mejias (D) -76,524 (47.16%)
(Republican hold)


NY-25
Dan Maffei (D) - 100,700 (53.15%)
James T. Walsh (R) - 88,780 (46.85%)
(Democratic pickup)

NY-26
Thomas M. Reynolds (R) - 94,810 (52.97%)
Jack Davis (D)- 84,184 (47.03%)
(Republican hold)

NY-29
Eric Massa (D) - 94,056 (50.75%)
John Randy Kuhl Jr (R) - 91,291 (49.25%)
(Democratic pickup)

OH-01
Steve Chabot (R) -105,452 (51.81%)
John Cranley (D) - 98,079 (48.19%)
(Republican hold)

OH-02
Victoria Wells Wulsin (D) - 120,093 (50.25%)
Jean Schmidt (R) -118,902 (49.75%)
(Uncalled - recount?)


OH-15
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - 112,541 (50.02%)
Deborah Pryce (R) -112,462 (49.98%)
(Uncalled - recount!)

PA-04
Jason Altmire (D) - 130,818 (52.62%)
Melissa Hart - 117,790 (47.38%)
(Democratic pickup)

PA-06
Jim Gerlach (R) -119,899 (50.25%)
Lois Murphy (D) - 118,691 (49.75%)
(Uncalled - recount?)


PA-08
Patrick Murphy (D) -122,991 (50.41%)
Michael Fitzpatrick (R)- 120,967 (49.59%)
(Democratic pickup)


VA-02
Thelma Drake (R) - 89,713 (51.90%)
Philip Kellam (D) -83,136 (48.10%)
(Republican hold)

WA-08
Dave Reichert (R) - 125,474 (50.82%)
Dacy Burner (D) -121,428 (49.18%)
(Republican hold)



WI - 08:
Steven L. Kagen (D) -142,040 (51.54%)
John Gard (R) - 133,512 (48.46%)
(Democratic pickup)


WY-AL
Gary Trauner (D) -93,840 (50.86%)
Barbara Cubin (R) - 90,682 (49.15%)
(Democratic pickup)
​

Total seat changes:

1 Republican pickup (GA-08)
1 Independent loss (VT-AL)
35 Democratic pickups (too many to list)
7 Republican-held seats awaiting potential recounts (4 with Democrats leading, 3 with Republicans leading)
1 Democratic-held seat awaiting runoff (LA-02) between two Democratic candidates
1 Republican-held seat awaiting runoff (TX-23) between a Republican and a Democrat

 

[starwarsfan]

Interesting stuff in there, curious to see run off results

 

[Seleucus]

I may be slightly unsure on the House math - that took quite a slog through.

Just so we're on the same page here, the main differences in the election so far compared to OTL are:

• Senate:
• Ned Lamont wins in Connecticut (OTL Orchulli never entered the race, Schlesinger's campaign imploded, and Lieberman won re-election thanks to heavy Republican support)
• Recount in Tennessee with Harold Ford Jr. down 400 votes (OTL he lost by 2.7%; butterflies means he does better ITTL.)

• Gubernatorial
• Mike Hatch (DFL) defeats Tim Pawlenty for the governors mansion in Minnesota (IOTL he lost by 1%)

• House
• Rob Simmons (R) edges out Joe Courtney in CT-02, which will likely got to recount (IOTL he lost by 83 votes.)
• Christine Jennings (D) defeats Vern Buchanan in Katherine Harris's old FL-13. She lost by 350 votes IOTL.
• John Barrow (D) loses his bid for re-election to Max Burns; he won by 0.6% IOTL
• Larry Kissell (D) wins NC-08 in a squeaker; he lost by just 326 votes IOTL
• Linda Stender (D) winning in NJ-07 (pending a recount)
• Patricia Madrid (D) winning in NM-01 (pending a recount)
• Dan Maffei (D) won in NY-25
• Eric Massa (D) winning in NY-29
• Victoria Wulsin (D) defeated "Mean Jean" Schmidt by 0.5% in heavily Republican OH-02. Expect more on her in a future update
• Mary Jo Kilroy is clinging to a lead in OH-15 (pending a recount)
• And last but not least, Gary Trauner edged out Barbara Cubin in Wyoming's at large district (yes, a Democrat representing Wyoming! Wonder what Dick Cheney will think about that.)

The two runoffs are same as IOTL - they're Louisiana's 2nd CD, a heavily black safe Democratic seat where incumbent Bill Jefferson (most known for a 2005 incident where FBI agents found $90,000 cash in his freezer while investigating him for bribery/corruption charges) is being challenged by fellow Democrat Karen Carter, whose main selling point is that she's *not* under federal investigation for corruption charges.

The second runoff is in TX-23 between Ciro Rodriguez and Henry Bonilla in a heavily Hispanic SW Texas seat. There'll be more on the details of that in a future update.

 

[starwarsfan]

Interesting so is the recount in TN over or not?

I do think Barrow losing is a bit over the top he always seems to pull out a win from the jaws of defeat, but its your TL your choice

 

[Seleucus]

Anti-Iraq wave sweeps Republicans out, Democrats in

Democrats have picked up at least six seats in the Senate following the concession of Senator Allen (R-VA), winning control of the Senate. A potential seventh pickup - Tennessee, where Democrat Harold Ford Jr. is narrowly behind, is currently pending for a recount.
In the House, Democrats have picked up at least 30 seats, winning definitive control of the legislature in a rebuke to President Bush. The tidal wave swept out Republicans in territory as deep-red as Wyoming, Vice President Cheney's old stomping grounds.​

Rebuke to Vice President Cheney?
Deep-red Wyoming sends Democrat Gary Trauner to the House!
The defeated incumbent, Barbara Lynn Cubin (R-WY) was unpopular, known primarily for gaffes and improper language, most notably when she infamously distributed (but did not bake, she later insisted) penis-shaped cookies to her state legislature colleagues

Liberal physician defeats incumbent Jean Schmidt in blood-red OH-02

Stretching along the Ohio River in southwestern Ohio, the 2nd Congressional district is deep-red, voting for President Bush by a 64-36% margin two years ago. You certainly wouldn't expect it to elect a Democrat anytime soon. But yet, that just happened, and not just any Democrat, but Victoria Wells Wulsin - a doctor from Indian Hills who ran on a proudly liberal platform including support of gay marriage, a pro-choice vision, opposition to the Iraq War, and repeal of the Bush tax cuts. All issues one would expect to be deeply unpopular in this socially conservative district.


Though certainly a strong rebuke to the President, one should also keep in mind the unique weaknesses of her opponent, incumbent Jean Schmidt. Ms. Schmidt was elected just last year in a squeaker over Iraq veteran Paul Hackett. Since then, she's earned the nickname of "Mean Jean" after she assailed Vietnam veteran Rep. John P. Murtha (D-PA) with the words "cowards cut and run, Marines never do." Also notable were issues where she falsely claimed on her campaign site to be endorsed by Rep Tom Tancredo and the Family Research Council. Earlier this year, she was reprimanded by the Ohio Elections Committee for "false statements "and "reckless disregard for truth" by claiming incorrectly to have an undergraduate degree from the University of Cincinnati that she was not in fact awarded. Ms. Schmidt insisted the error was a mistake by her staff.
​

Recounts could decide the fate of several crucial races

Following the concession speechs of Ohio representative Jean Schmidt (R, OH-02) and Democratic challenger Lois Murphy in Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional district, election officials face recounts in 6 crucial races across the nation: Tennessee's Senate race, Connecticut's 2nd Congressional District, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, and Ohio's 15th district. Although control of the House and Senate is now firmly in Democratic hands, the results of these races could give them greater power to challenge President Bush's policy aims
​

Runoff date for Texas's 23rd district set to December 12th

It's a long sequence of political manuevering that set the stage for a runoff election for Texas's 23rd Congressional District.

After the controversial 2003 mid-decade Texas redistricting, Republicans decided to shore up incumbent Henry Bonilla in this Latino-heavy district, removing most of Laredo into the 28th district instead. Bonilla promptly won re-election in 2004 with almost 70% of the vote.

The US Supreme Court didn't look kindly on this behavior, however. In the ruling of League of United Latin American Citizens v. Perry earlier this year, they decided that the change of the 23rd district violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965 through the destruction of a protected majority-Hispanic district, thereby violating the rights of Hispanic voters. In August, a court-drawn map was hastily issued, but it was too late to hold a proper primary in addition to the general election.

As a result, an all-candidate primary was held on Election Day earlier this week, with incumbent Henry Bonilla winning 48.6% and six Democrats combining for slightly more - 48.7%. The second-place winner, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez, will face Bonilla in a runoff election, now decided for December 12th.

This date has already proved controversial, with Rodriguez and supporters releasing objections and pondering a legal challenge. The crux of the issue is that December 12th is also the Day of the Virgin of Guadalupe, a popular Catholic holiday, especially among Latinos, who expect to spend it in public fiestas and religious celebration. As such, Demorats have alleged that the date was selected in order to suppress the pro-Democrat Latino vote. According to Rodriguez, "This is yet another coordinated Republican scheme to manipulate the electoral process in order to limit voter participation." But Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt contended the governor had simply complied with the court order that set up the 23rd District’s special election.​

​

 

[Seleucus]

Interesting so is the recount in TN over or not?

I do think Barrow losing is a bit over the top he always seems to pull out a win from the jaws of defeat, but its your TL your choice

The election's barely over. I just got through finalizing the gubernatorial and House results. So you'll have to wait on the recounts, both in Tennessee and the House ones.

Barrow had a very narrow shave in 2006 IOTL, winning by just 864 votes; it's quite possible that a few butterflies could have caused him to lose in an upset. Note again that this result (as with most of the rest) wasn't my specific decision - to try and properly simulate butterflies, I added a small random factor to every race; Barrow got a bit unlucky. On the whole, though, it favored Democrats, with a net 7 more House wins (if the recounts don't change anything) and the Minnesota governor's mansion compared to OTL.

 

[starwarsfan]

The election's barely over. I just got through finalizing the gubernatorial and House results. So you'll have to wait on the recounts, both in Tennessee and the House ones.

Barrow had a very narrow shave in 2006 IOTL, winning by just 864 votes; it's quite possible that a few butterflies could have caused him to lose in an upset. Note again that this result (as with most of the rest) wasn't my specific decision - to try and properly simulate butterflies, I added a small random factor to every race; Barrow got a bit unlucky. On the whole, though, it favored Democrats, with a net 6 more House wins (if the recounts don't change anything) and the Minnesota governor's mansion compared to OTL.

Yea, its pretty neat wasnt sure what you did exactly to come up with results but that sounds like a good way to do it

As a suggestion, Barrow would run for Senate in 08 and if its similar to OTL at all he could win and probably do better than the OTL dem who came close

 

[Seleucus]

People power brings Carol Shea-Porter into the House​

Nobody expected it. Nobody called it. According to pundits, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District was solidly Republican. The pollsters thought they'd confirmed it - Jeb Bradley would win election yet again with double digits. The most cautious of the prognostics came from Larry Sabato, who settled for "Likely Republican" and proclaimed that "National Democrats stopped paying attention to this district when their favored candidate lost the primary. We expect Bradley to survive the Democratic wave in the Northeast." The level to which election analysts ignored the grassroots Shea-Porter is exemplified by Sabato's forecast where he mangled her name, instead proclaiming "Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) will win reelection over Carol Porter-Shea (D)." (sic) On election night, DCCC communications director Bill Burton responded to news of her victory with complete incredulity: "Congresswoman Shea-Porter? What the fuck?"

Carol Shea-Porter, a political newcomer and social worker from Rochester, certainly pulled off the upset without help from party leaders. In fact, this is the second upset she's pulled off this year - in September, she faced state House Democratic leader Jim Craig in the Democratic primary. Although she was outspent six to one by an opponent who received the endorsement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and enjoyed the support of party leaders, Shea-Porter won a startling easy 54-34 victory in the primary thanks to grassroots support and anti-war feeling. She ran on a left-wing platform - timeline for withdrawal from Iraq, extending Medicare for all Americans, repealing the Bush tax cuts, and a new federal department for alternative energy sources.

The day after her victory, Jeb Bradley called her views "extreme." He pointed to a incident where Porter had once been escorted out of a Portsmouth event featuring President Bush while wearing a T-shirt protesting his re-election. He slammed her policies, claiming that they would lead to higher taxes. The district was the only one in New England carried by President Bush in 2004, and no woman had ever been elected to Congress from New Hampshire before; Bradley outspent her three to one and expected an easy victory. And yet, it is Shea-Porter who will be entering the hallowed halls of the US Capital next year - not Bradley. It's the support from her army of volunteers hundreds-strong that let her triumph with an insurgent campaign on a shoe-string budget. Perhaps no politician this year has better exemplified the famous quote from Mahatma Gandhi: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 

[Seleucus]

Yea, its pretty neat wasnt sure what you did exactly to come up with results but that sounds like a good way to do it

As a suggestion, Barrow would run for Senate in 08 and if its similar to OTL at all he could win and probably do better than the OTL dem who came close

I'd intended for him to try and retake his seat in 2008, a la Baron Hill, but it's true the Senate is worth a consideration as well. Hard to say off the top of my head if Barrow would do better though - he underperformed Kerry in the 2006 race, IIRC, and Martin had a statewide profile (if not that large of one) thanks to appointed positions and a 2002 Lt Gov run, whereas Barrow is probably unknown outside of his CD.




As a general question to folks, would you prefer more news article-style election highlights (like the 2 previous updates), or to move forward with the timeline with the recounts and runoffs?

 

[starwarsfan]

The election's barely over. I just got through finalizing the gubernatorial and House results. So you'll have to wait on the recounts, both in Tennessee and the House ones.

Barrow had a very narrow shave in 2006 IOTL, winning by just 864 votes; it's quite possible that a few butterflies could have caused him to lose in an upset. Note again that this result (as with most of the rest) wasn't my specific decision - to try and properly simulate butterflies, I added a small random factor to every race; Barrow got a bit unlucky. On the whole, though, it favored Democrats, with a net 6 more House wins (if the recounts don't change anything) and the Minnesota governor's mansion compared to OTL.

Never mind good update

 

[Expat]

Good times! Lost the pure sweep in the House, but it's entertaining to think of Fox News devoting ten minutes every hour to Barrow.

Hope Schmidt manages to stick around through the next election. Hers would be a welcome voice in the healthcare debates, assuming there will still be healthcare debates. With a 2006 POD Obama (or another candidate focusing on healthcare) might not make it into office.

Will this be a full-service TL (alternate legislation and events for the next two years) or is it on to the next election?

 

[Seleucus]

Good times! Lost the pure sweep in the House, but it's entertaining to think of Fox News devoting ten minutes every hour to Barrow.

Hope Schmidt manages to stick around through the next election. Hers would be a welcome voice in the healthcare debates, assuming there will still be healthcare debates. With a 2006 POD Obama (or another candidate focusing on healthcare) might not make it into office.

Will this be a full-service TL (alternate legislation and events for the next two years) or is it on to the next election?

Yah; Democrats got pretty lucky IOTL - they didn't lose *ANYTHING*. Not a Senate seat, not a House seat, not a Governors mansion (they did lose two state houses though, which I'm assuming is the same ITTL.) That has never happened since at least the 1920s, if ever (that's as far back as I checked.) It'd be a bit pushing luck for things to stay exactly the same ITTL what with the butterflies, while Barrow had a lot of trouble drawing black voters to the polls in a mid-term

Think you meant Wulsin instead of Schmidt there, I do hope? She was a firm supporter of a single-payer (UK-style system), but IOTL the House wasn't the restriction on a public option (if that's what you had in mind.) The next election is going to be very hard on her in this deep-red district thanks to being a presidential year. IOTL, she lost to Schmidt by 1.2% in 2006, and 7% in 2008. She'll need to hope that Republicans nominate Schmidt again, AND pray for another miracle (Akin-style meltdown or something), in short.

I'm thinking after I finish the election that it'll be just highlights of what's different for the next two years (since well with Bush in the White House legislation is going to be seriously difficult and not that different, with the Senate the sticking point) and then trying for full legislation/events post-2008 when things get very different. But open to suggestions.

Also, if there are any Minnesotans around, shoot me a message - I'm interested in seeing how things will go with Democrats getting early control of the state trifecta.

 

[NickCT]

As a CT resident, I'm intrigued.

 

[Seleucus]

As a CT resident, I'm intrigued.

Ah good; I haven't made any horrific mistakes yet.

If you have any ideas on how things will change in CT local politics without Joe Lieberman to kick around anymore, shoot me a PM please. Despite the name of the timeline, I'm intending to look mainly at the national impact of the difference but being able to give an update on how Connecticut has changed would be nice.

 

[Seleucus]

Wind CEO Jerry McNerney defeats 7-term Rep Richard Pombo
McNerney was elected in the Republican leaning 11th district of California, which voted 54-45 Bush two years ago. He enjoyed the strong support and endorsement of former Republican Congressman Pete McCloskey (best known for challenging Richard Nixon in 1972) who ran against Pombo for the Republican nomination. McCloskey won 31% of the Republican primary vote in a spirited campaign focusing on anti-war, ethics, and environmental themes, despite being out of office since the early 1980s.

Unity08 makes first electoral debut
Earlier this week, voters in Minnesota's 8th congressional district saw three choices on the ballot: In addition to 16-term Rep Jim Oberstar (DFL) and former Senator Rod Grams (R), voters also had the choice of Harry Welty - a former Duluth school board chair who ran on the Unity ticket, inspired by the Unity08 organization. Founded earlier this year, Unity08 is a non-profit organization supported by a bipartisan group of public figures - Democrats Hamilton Jordan and Gerald Rafshoon, Republican Doug Bailey, and former Maine governor Angus King, who served as an Independent. Unity08's leaders state that they created the group in response to the growing polarization between Republicans and Democrats, and seek to leverage online technology to allow independent American voters to connect and launch a bipartisan presidential ticket in 2008. Potential candidates for the Unity08 ticket are rumored to include New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA).

Their first electoral debut, however, was unsurprisingly poor seeing how Welty had little to no help from the rest of the organization. He placed third with only 2% of the vote. The other challenger didn't do much better: despite his statewide profile and time in Congress, former Senator Grams made a shockingly poor showing, managing only 33% of the vote.

Arizona first state to defeat anti-gay marriage amendment!
State election officials have certified that Proposition 107, which sought to amend the Arizona constitution and prohibit the state from recognizing same-sex marriages and civil unions, was defeated by a margin of 52-48%. This marks the first time that a constitutional amendment against same-sex marriage has been defeated by popular vote.

Previous states that passed anti-gay marriage constitutional amendments by referendum are Alaska (1998), Hawaii (1998), Nebraska (2000), Nevada (2002), Arkansas (2004), Georgia (2004), Kentucky (2004), Louisiana (2004), Mississippi (2004), Missouri (2004), Michigan (2004), Montana (2004), North Dakota (2004), Ohio (2004), Oklahoma (2004), Oregon (2004), Utah (2004), Texas (2005), and Kansas (2005.) Before this year, the closest of the votes occurred in Oregon, where the amendment passed with 57% of the vote.

Gay marriage supporters should not rejoice too quickly, however. 8 other states passed similar referendums against same-sex unions this year; the closest of these took place in South Dakota, where Amendment C was approved by a narrow 51% of the vote.

The end of an era - Lieberman rejected at polls once again
Though he ran on the Democratic ticket for Vice President in 2000, voters soured on Lieberman due to his support of the Iraq war and other Bush administration policies. Even creating a political party of his own - Connecticut for Lieberman - was not enough to save him in the general. Election officials have certified that the third-term Senator fell short to Greenwich businessman Ned Lamont by more than 30,000 votes.

Truly a party of one - even Connecticut for Lieberman rejects Joe Lieberman!
Below are excerpts from a press release published by John Orman, chair of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. Mr. Orman is a political scientist at Fairfield University, and was previously known for being a fierce anti-war critic of Senator Lieberman.

Orman Elected New Chair of Connecticut for Lieberman Party

I called the Secretary of State's Office in Connecticut to find out how many people joined the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and I was told that no one had joined, not even Senator Joe Lieberman. I went down to Trumbull town hall and changed my registration to the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. Then I went home and called a meeting of all the registered Connecticut for Lieberman members to reflect on our party's narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race with Senator Joseph Lieberman. Senator Lieberman did not attend the organizational meeting for Connecticut for Lieberman because he no longer wants to be labeled as a member of the party.

At the first meeting I nominated myself to be party chair for Connecticut for Lieberman. I seconded my own nomination and then I voted for myself. I was selected unanimously as Chair of Connecticut for Lieberman on November 15, 2006.

These new rules were adopted:
1. This party is open to every citizen who wants to keep Senator Joseph Lieberman accountable. It is open to critics, opponents, bloggers and everyone else who will work to provide citizen oversight for Lieberman's actions, words and deeds over the next six years.
2. The chair of the party shall be elected for a period of six years, or until Lieberman decides to run again.

New Connecticut for Lieberman Rules:

a. If you run under Connecticut for Lieberman, you must actually join our party.
b. The party will nominate people for office who have the last name of Lieberman and/or who are critics and opponents of Senator Lieberman.
c. If any CFL candidate loses our party's nomination in a primary, that candidate must bolt our party, form a new party and work to defeat our party endorsed candidate.
d. We in the CFL intend to run the same candidate for three different jobs at the same time, ie. House, Senate and Governor.


Sincerely

Dr. John Orman
Chair, Connecticut for Lieberman

Senator Lieberman has refused comment on the new developments in the party he founded.

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