Hope, Change, and Nutmeg - A US political timeline

Part 0.1 - Point of Divergence

Hope, Change, and Nutmeg, 2006





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Connecticut firmly Blue - Pundits predict Lieberman a safe bet for re-election in 2006.





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Ned who? Greenwich businessman and selectman Ned Lamont announces campaign bid against Senator Lieberman in the Democratic primary.





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Lamont attacks Lieberman; claims he is "George Bush's favorite Democrat."






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Despite anti-war sentiment, Lieberman endorsed by Senator Obama at Jefferson Jackson Bailey dinner.

Obama: "I am absolutely certain that Connecticut's going to have the good sense to send Joe Lieberman back to the United States Senate."










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Lieberman still in driver's seat - May Quinnipiac poll shows him up 65-19 in primary, or 57-13-8 if he runs as an independent candidate.







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Republicans nominate Derby Mayor Alan Schlesinger - considered likely to lose against Lieberman.








Campaign heats up over summer. Ned Lamont runs attack ad - against himself! Claims he has a messy desk and makes bad coffee in a parody mocking Lieberman attacks.
(Note: Click the image to see the actual campaign ad.)


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Lieberman reruns updated 'bear' ad from 1988, compares Lamont to Lowell Weicker. Pundits very unimpressed.

Latest polling numbers - it's Lieberman 55-40 according to Quinnipiac University





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Lamont runs ads promising to endorse Lieberman if he loses the primary, calls upon the Senator to do the same. Lieberman refuses - considering an independent bid?







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Lieberman collects signatures for independent run - wants to guarantee spot on November ballot if he loses the primary. Paperwork filed for new political party: "Connecticut for Lieberman"






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Alan... Gold? Hartford Courant stuns with revelation that Republican Senate candidate gambled under an assumed name to avoid detection as a card counter, while still an elected official.



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Republican Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger nudged to quit race by party elders. 2004 Senate nominee Jack Orchulli considered as replacement.







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The Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton makes a July campaign appearance with Lieberman as his primary poll numbers sink. Lieberman supporters disappointed by lack of kiss.


Latest Quinnipac poll numbers show Ned Lamont inches ahead in a 51-47 primary lead






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Could a kiss and a vote sink a Senator? Lieberman struggles in the tide of anti-war sentiment. Polling for the election tomorrow finds Lamont up 51-45




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It's Lamont by a hair in the primary! Greenwich businessman receives the Democratic nomination, edging out Lieberman by 8,000 votes.




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Lieberman announces independent bid for Senate as the "Connecticut for Lieberman" nominee; fires campaign manager and spokesman in staff shakeup.




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Schlesinger out - Orchulli in! Musical chairs in the Connecticut Senate race, as Republicans replace their Senate nominee


 
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So this here's my first attempt at a timeline, which'll consist of a mix of short headline/news article-style posts. Updates will probably get more detailed as we go on and the situation gets more complicated.

The initial PoDs (there are a few small ones) are of course in 2006, and the US - let alone the world - will hardly notice at first. Don't expect anything really major to change nationally before 2008 at the earliest, and if I'm not mentioning something, expect it to be the same as IOTL.


I'm not a huge expert on US politics (besides being a political junkie and following the elections like an addict back in 2006), so please shout if I get anything stupidly wrong.
 
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Part 0.2
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Lamont gets support from Democratic establishment. 2004 VP candidate John Edwards was "first to call": stumps for Lamont and says "I do not think that Lieberman should be running."




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Lieberman "Un-Democrated"

The New Haven Independent:
New Haven peace activists have successfully stripped Lieberman of his party affiliation. They point to Connecticut General Statute 9-61, which states "Knowingly becoming a candidate for office on ticket of a new party automatically separates voter from his former party." After a decision by local register Sharon Ferrucci and a meeting by the local party town committee, Lieberman was thus stripped of his status as a Democrat. The activists claimed that they were acting independently of the Lamont campaign.

In a statement, the Lieberman campaign described the move as a “purge campaign launched by Ned Lamont’s supporters” constituting “dirty political tricks at its worst, ranking up there with the outrageous tactics that Katherine Harris and the Republicans used in 2000 in Florida to stop all the votes from being counted.”

Reports indicate that local register Sharon Ferrucci had initially been reluctant to uphold the law, only acquiescing after considerable pressure from local activists and pro-Lamont officials, who pointed out that state regulators had already found her office in violation of state laws three times in running elections. For more information, see our previous story here.





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Donors demand refund from Lieberman for spent campaign donations - say that they supported his bid as a Democrat, not as an independent.


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Jack Orchulli: There are three candidates in this race!
Businessman and Republican Senate nominee stumps furiously for votes in late-entry campaign, hoping to consolidate Republican support and squeeze by while Lamont and Lieberman split Democratic vote.


Quinnipac poll (August 17): Lieberman still leads among likely Connecticut voters.
Result is Lamont - 38, Orchulli - 8, Lieberman - 45. Lieberman beats Orchulli among Republican voters 56-24!




 
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I'm a political naif myself, Seleucus.
S/t the political junkies war-game their fantasies based on what they see as the most likely POD's thanks to poring over the minutiae of who's allied with whom how and why. Fascinating stuff in spots, but they can get too insular for my taste.
FWIW, eagerly awaiting your take on it!

IMO if Lieberman manages to lose his Senate seat to Lamont, the public-option is nowhere near as DOA in the ACA as when Lieberman was able to hamstring it into irrelevance b/c he's a shill for the HMO's.

That'd be my #1 effect of Lieberman losing, but hey, your story to tell!
 
Interesting!
Thank you!



I'm a political naif myself, Seleucus.
S/t the political junkies war-game their fantasies based on what they see as the most likely POD's thanks to poring over the minutiae of who's allied with whom how and why. Fascinating stuff in spots, but they can get too insular for my taste.
FWIW, eagerly awaiting your take on it!

IMO if Lieberman manages to lose his Senate seat to Lamont, the public-option is nowhere near as DOA in the ACA as when Lieberman was able to hamstring it into irrelevance b/c he's a shill for the HMO's.

That'd be my #1 effect of Lieberman losing, but hey, your story to tell!

There's going to be major changes before we even get to the ACA. Wait and see. ;)

If nothing else, the butterflies would keep things from being 100% the same up until 2009.
 
Part 0.3

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Democrats split by Lieberman independent bid - some angry, some supportive








David Brooks pens op-ed: characterizes Lamont as "net-root DeLay" and "hyper-partisan", claims and supports emergence of "the McCain-Lieberman Party."






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Green Party Senate candidate Ralph Ferrucci considering talks with Lamont campaign for potential endorsement, wary of splitting anti-war vote






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Chuck Roberts on CNN Headline News - says Lamont might be the "Al-Qaeda candidate"?!


CNN Headline News anchor apologizes for referring to Lamont as “the al Qaeda candidate.”









Lamont soft on terror? Vice President Cheney: Lamont's victory encourages "the al-Qaida types" who seeks to "break the will of the American people."





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Lieberman hits Lamont on Iraq; says that withdrawal would be "taken as a tremendous victory" by terrorists.




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Republican candidate Jack Orchulli stumps state for votes, as Lamont-Lieberman fight draws the attention
 
Hmm. I'm going to predict a McCain-Lieberman ticket in 2008 as the main result of this race. I'm probably wrong but that would be entertaining to see. Bonus points for President McCain.
 
Part 0.4

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I'm sticking with Joe - Lieberman picks up big campaign donations across party lines
Both Republicans and Democrats supporting him






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Netroots are Lamont's secret weapon - army of grassroots supporters brought down a three-term Senator





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Surprise Lieberman endorsement from.... Newt Gingrich?
Lieberman "not going to accept or regret" Gingrich's support, says that Newt "doesn’t vote here."



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Republican establishment and donors split - Orchulli struggles to consolidate right-wing support despite ad blitz.





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Lamont hits Lieberman for not holding Bush accountable on Katrina

Lamont: "It was Senator Lieberman who said, 'Let's put Michael Brown as No. 2 at FEMA.'"




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AFSCME rescinds previous Lieberman endorsement, instead endorses Lamont!

Labor support crucial for Lamont in general election






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Pinched from left and right - Lieberman having trouble keeping support as Lamont, Orchulli gain.






September 28 Quinnipiac poll results:
Lamont: 36%, Lieberman: 39%, Orchulli: 15%

Republicans: Lamont - 12, Orchulli - 40, Lieberman - 41
Democrats: Lamont - 54, Lieberman - 37
Independents: Lamont - 33, Orchulli - 12, Lieberman - 42

 
Most of what's happened in this TL thus far is completely the same as IOTL, by the way (with a few exceptions from the PoD that it's not too hard to figure out.) Some of the pictures are actually links to OTL's version of the same thing. The rehash parts are more for background/flavor to get into the mood of the race since, well, this was a pretty obscure episode of US politics on a global, or even national scale. I mention this since not everyone is aware that Lieberman actually did lose the CT Democratic nomination in 2006 IOTL, and was thus the Connecticut for Lieberman Senator from Connecticut for the next six years*.

* Based on the party he ran as. All the news organizations tended to report his party affiliation as "Independent" or "Independent Democrat", perhaps because "Senator Lieberman (Connecticut for Lieberman - CT)" would be slightly redundant. Interesting things also ended up happening to the Connecticut for Lieberman party. For instance, after the election, they adopted the party rule of "If you run under Connecticut for Lieberman, you must actually join our party."

Next update will be up tonight.
 
::encouragement post::

Always love a good modern political romp. Interested to see what your interpretation is!
 
Will follow. Will any of the other 2006 midterm results change?

Y'know, that's a good question. I'm still deciding on it - any changes that happen would be tiny though. If you have any thoughts or suggestions, shoot me a message please.
 
Part 0.5

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NRSC chairman says party is "firmly committed to Mr. Orchulli". Jack Orchulli is gaining in the polls - but fast enough to win?





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Lamont slams Lieberman for creating a 'media spectacle' after the 1998 Lewinsky scandal.
Lieberman responds by releasing 1998 email in which Lamont "reluctantly supported" Lieberman's actions.





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John McCain says he's supporting Jack Orchulli for Senate in Connecticut.
NYT: "However, McCain has ruled out campaigning with Mr. Orchulli. According to one adviser, his nominal support for the party candidate has more to do with wanting to avoid alienating conservatives, than with actually supporting Mr. Orchulli."





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Mary Landrieu (D-LA) campaigns for Lieberman despite his primary loss. "Joe is the type of leader who can take us in a new direction."






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Bloomberg sends troops to help Lieberman
The NYC mayor has sent top-level campaign operatives to assist Lieberman's campaign identifying and turning out voters on the eve of the election


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Lamont pivots back to Iraq war - intensifies anti-Lieberman attacks



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Former NATO commander Wesley Clark appears in hard-hitting Lamont ad calling the Iraq War 'a mistake'




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William F. Buckley refuses to say who he's voting for. "Lieberman or Orchulli, vote your conscience"




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Jack Orchulli hits a ceiling? Despite rapid polling gains with a prolonged ad blitz, the Darien businessman can't break out of third place as the election rapidly approaches



Pre-election polling:


American Research Group (ARG), October 20:
Lieberman - 37%, Lamont - 34%, Orchulli - 21%, Undecided/Other - 8%



Rasmussen Reports, October 31
Lieberman - 36% Lamont -38% Orchulli - 22%, Undecided/Other - 4%



Zogby Interactive, October 31
Lieberman - 29%, Lamont - 37%, Orchulli - 24%, Undecided/Other - 10%




SurveyUSA (SUSA), November 1
Lieberman - 34%, Lamont - 35%, Orchulli - 25%, Undecided/Other - 6%





Research 2000, November 1
Lieberman - 34%, Lamont - 36%, Orchulli -23%, Undecided/Other - 7%



Quinnipiac, November 6
Lieberman - 38%, Lamont - 36%, Orchulli - 20%, Undecided/Other - 6%



RCP polling average
Lieberman - 34.7%, Lamont - 36%, Orchulli - 22.5%



 
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Hope I've kept this reasonably interesting as the election beckons.


Fun fact: Long-time political junkies may notice something interesting about one or two of the poll numbers :D
 
Part 0.6 - Election Night
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Good evening, and welcome to CNN America Votes 2006. I'm Anderson Cooper, and besides me are Wolf Blitzer, Lou Dobbs, and Paula Zahn live from our studio in New York. For the last four years, Republicans have held both Houses of Congress, as well as most of the governorships, but Democrats think they have a good chance of coming up on top tonight. It's 7PM and polls have closed in Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. We expected that they'd be closed in Indiana by now as well, but it sounds like the state is keeping them open a bit longer thanks to voting problems.

We can start off by making a few projections here.

CNN is ready to project that Bernie Sanders has been elected to the United States Senate from Vermont. Though this is technically an independent pickup, Sanders identifies as a "democratic-socialist", and is expected to caucus with the Democrats.

We can also call that Republicans have held on to the governors mansions in Vermont, South Carolina, and Georgia. None of these were expected to be competitive before the election, and so no surprises here just yet.

In the meantime, we'll be keeping an eye on the Virginia Senate, and a few key House races - Kentucky's 3rd and 4th districts, Georgia's 8th and 12th districts, and Virginia's 2nd district.






One day later....​






Senate race highlights:


Arizona:


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John Kyl (R): 819,467 (53.00%)
Jim Pederson (D): 677,782 (43.84%)

(Republican hold)



Connecticut:
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Ned Lamont (D): 431,240 (38.07%)
Joe Lieberman (Connecticut for Lieberman): 398,884 (35.21%)
Jack Orchulli (R): 291,426 (25.72%)
(Democratic hold)




Missouri:
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Claire McCaskill (D): 1,082,501 (50.55%)
Jim Talent (R): 992,432 (46.34%)
(Democratic pickup)





Montana:
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Jon Tester (D): 206,297 (49.96%)
Conrad Burns (R): 196,153 (47.50%)
(Democratic pickup)





Tennessee:
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Bob Corker (R): 903,647 (49.36%)
Harold Ford Jr (D): 903,222 (49.34%)

(Uncalled - Recount?)



Virginia:
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Jim Webb (D): 1,179,897 (49.48%)
George Allen (R): 1,176,146 (49.32%)
(Uncalled - Recount?)

Other Democratic pickups: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island


Overall Senate vote:
Democrats: 34,017,747 (53.94%) - 22 seats (+4 gain)
Republicans: 26,370,080 (41.81%) - 10 seats (-6 loss)
Other: 2,683,214 (4.25%) - 1 seat (+1 gain)
Uncalled - 2 seats
 
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