Ghastly Victories: The United States in the World Wars

Obviously since there's no free lunch the greater militarization and military preparedness of the USA (compared to OTL) has to come from somewhere, which means that while the miliary industries might be greater, the overall economy is likely to be smaller than OTL. Given the geographical isolation of the CONUS, the advantages of the larger military is significantly nerfed while the disadvantages of what's likely to be a smaller economy will be magnified down the line.
 
Obviously since there's no free lunch the greater militarization and military preparedness of the USA (compared to OTL) has to come from somewhere, which means that while the miliary industries might be greater, the overall economy is likely to be smaller than OTL. Given the geographical isolation of the CONUS, the advantages of the larger military is significantly nerfed while the disadvantages of what's likely to be a smaller economy will be magnified down the line.
Assuming optimal patterns of consumption that is indeed the case as military spending has a fiscal multiplier below 1. The 1920's did not have optimal patterns of consumption in OTL, too much money essentially went into the Stock Market bubble than was healthy for the economy. So long term this ended up being economically neutral, the stock market got less inflated (as income taxes were higher to pay for this, so less money flowed into that), the bursting of the bubble was not quite so bad and the Depression was less bad than OTL, meaning more money was around

The US still has about 4 billion dollars of extra debt on the books in 1940 when all is said and done, but 47 billion versus 43 billion is not that big of a difference with the US economy size

Edit: Normally taxing people and spending the money on weapons is bad for the economy, as it takes money away from more productive ventures, when that money is going to be lost in speculative ventures, spending it on something concrete that employs people to produce at least keeps some of it in the economy
 
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Part 6-38 Fall of Europe, Pacific Theater, Revisionist Viewpoints, Eve of War: Brazil
…German forces continued to launch distracting feints on the Dyle line on the 16th, supported by increasing amounts of artillery and focusing on the areas south of the Dyle River proper. These probing attacks cost a few German lives ,but continued to convince the French that the main German blow was coming here…

…With German forces having bridgeheads on both flanks the French made the decision to withdraw their 9th Army from its position on the Meuse in the early hours of the 16th to a line about 10 miles west of the river. This proved immediately catastrophic as the 9th Army was almost completely composed of reserve, colonial and fortress infantry divisions, units almost completely lacking in motor transport. Faced with a fast moving enemy they simply could not evacuate quick enough and began to disintegrate.

This allowed the German Panzer Corps at Montherme to finally establish bridgeheads by midmorning of the 16th and begin moving forward. They quickly overran the units that had been blocking them and destroyed two infantry divisions by midafternoon, catching them mid retreat and taking prisoners en masse as the French morale broke.

At Sedan a single Panzer division and supporting motorized troops held off the 4th French armored division and its supporting infantry at Stonne. Fierce positional fighting ensued where the French B type tanks proved extremely difficult for the Germans to deal with, ultimately requiring the use of 88mm AA guns due to a lack of the Mark V Bunker Buster tanks. After almost losing the hill several times, the Germans still retained the vital high ground by nightfall thanks to a French reluctance to press home their attacks. With that the French had lost their best chance to take the heights as an additional motorized infantry division crossed the river and arrived to defend the hill.

The other two Panzer divisions at Sedan merely faced 3 scattered infantry regiments on their journey west and quickly destroyed them, before getting into the Corps and Army echelons behind them and wreaking havoc.

At Dinant the French 1st Armored attempted to contain the breakthrough, having arrived from Belgium during the night. It however had followed standard French practice and dispersed itself into platoons to cover each potential road, and thus could not handle a single concentrated Panzer division, even with far superior tanks. By midafternoon it was hors de combat, and the Panzers had overrun 9th Army headquarters at Phillipeville…

…Early in the morning General Gamelin realized that the breakthroughs on the Meuse may be more severe than expected and that 9th Army was experiencing difficulty. He ordered the 5th Armored division out of reserve to try and restore the connection between 9th Army and 2nd Army to its southeast. At the same time he asked for additional airstrikes to destroy the Meuse Bridges.

The airstrikes were attempted, but proved failures once again, with the Luftwaffe inflicting heavy casualties on the Anglo-French bomber forces. 5th Armored had its transport disrupted by air attack and by nightfall it was strung out in an arc 30 miles long, out of communication with itself and with elements already overrun by advancing German Panzers.

Gamelin was unaware of this and went to sleep believing that 9th Army remained intact, with the Germans still somewhat contained. This was a far cry from the actual situation, where the Germans had linked up their bridgeheads into a breakthrough 60 miles across with no intact French units larger than a brigade to oppose them on their journey west…

-Excerpt From The Fall of Europe, Scholastic American Press, Philadelphia, 2005

…The Japanese target for their Spring offensive was the city of Ichang. Ichang was chosen for two reasons, first it was closer to Chungking by 175 miles than Hankou, the current Japanese bomber base, allowing for heavier bombloads to be dropped on the city with less expenditure of fuel and losses. The second was that it was on the most logistically sound invasion route to Chungking, the Yangtze river. The IJA did not actually plan on attacking Chungking by the Yangtze, as the Yangtze Gorges west of Ichang were too good terrain for the defender. They did however want to distract the Chinese so that they could attempt to breach the mountains protecting Chungking further north, and by taking Ichang and feinting at Chunking from there they could draw of Chinese reserves for destruction at a more convenient location. 3 divisions and supporting elements were assigned to the operation, including riverine forces and a large number of aircraft.

Opposing them was a full military region, 6 group armies and supporting elements, almost 300,000 men. The Chinese plan was to play for time with a phased retreat to Ichang and the Yangtze Gorges. This relied on their knowledge that the Japanese only had so much in the way of supplies, especially artillery shells, and if they could be run out then their firepower advantage would evaporate and they would need to call off the offensive.

The Japanese started by sending a Brigade column up the Yangtze as a feint while the three divisions moved east overland from Hankow north of the Yangtze. While the Chinese were distracted with the force moving along the Yangtze the Japanese struck against the 26th Group Army guarding Chingmen about 50 miles north of the Yangtze. The 26th attempted to make a fighting retreat to the urban area of the city to try and neutralize the Japanese advantage in artillery, but its commanders were not prepared for Japanese firepower and aggression, and it was soon surrounded.

The 36th Group Army stationed to the south was assigned to break the encirclement, and tried valiantly. However it lacked the firepower of even a single Japanese division, and that lack along with chemical weapons and air attacks saw it take heavy casualties while failing to relieve the 26th before it was destroyed by a combination of artillery and chemical attacks. With two Group Armies hors de Combat the Chinese made the decision to cede Ichang and defend at the Yangtze Gorges instead, after a two week delaying action to remove supplies and equipment from the city…

…Worried about a Japanese follow up to the Ichang offensive aimed at Chungking, General Chiang ordered that counterattacks be launched all along the front to try and tie down Japanese forces. These were in the main successful at doing so without excessive casualties, but did not inflict any significant losses on the Japanese or retake significant amounts of territory…

…The IJA planned to follow up on the Ichang offensive with another late summer offensive to break the mountain barrier protecting the Szechwan Basin. Events in Europe however gave them another approach to crippling the Chinese…

…Despite strong entreaties from the KMT leadership the Communists once again refused to take any action to fight the Japanese in the spring of 1941. Instead the Communists claimed to have launched a major offensive in concert with the Nationalist Armies, but instead merely stayed home…

-Excerpt from The Pacific Theater, an Overview, Scholastic American Press, Philadelphia, 2002

…Despite Nationalist Chinese claims to the contrary the evidence is that the Chinese Communists did launch a major offensive in June of 1940. Japanese records report heavy fighting in Shanxi during the period in question, fighting that could only have come from a major Communist offensive. Furthermore the Japanese records specifically attribute this fighting to the Communists, something corroborated by numerous Japanese secondary sources. Therefore the existence of the Communist “Hundred Regiments” offensive must be considered confirmed and claims to the contrary are anti-communist propaganda with no basis in fact…

-Excerpt from Revisionist Viewpoints in History Volume VII, University of California Press: Berkley, 1997


The Republic of Brazil

Basics:

Brazil is a Fascist Republic similar to Italy under the rule of Getuilo Vargas. Brazil was a late enterer into WWI, joining the winning side in 1917. It has since tried to embrace neutrality and stands as the only Portuguese speaking country in the New World.

Economy:

Brazil has a primarily export oriented agricultural economy. The primary export good is coffee, with other exports including sugar, tobacco, cocoa and rubber. Brazil is modestly industrialized, primarily in light consumer industries with little heavy industry.

Land Forces:

Brazil has an on paper army of 150,000 organized into 5 infantry and 5 cavalry divisions on the 1922 French TOE. In practice these units are well below strength.

Brazil’s standard Rifles are Belgian and Czech clones of the Gewehr 98 in 7x57mm Spanish Mauser, with domestic manufacture of the Czech variants. Older M1908 and M1895 Mauser, both in 7x57mm are in reserve or police use. Even older Mannlicher M1888 in 8x52mm are in reserve as well.

The standard Brazilian Pistol is the Luger P08 in 7.65x21mm parabellum. Shortages of this have led to a variety of non-standard pistols being used.

Brazil’s standard light machine gun is the Magazine fed Hotckiss in 7x57mm, supplemented by Madsens in the same caliber. The standard Medium Machine gun is the M1914 Hotckiss, with the standard heavy as the MG08, both in 7mm Mauser.

Brazil’s standard AT weapon is a 15mm single shot Czech AT rifle, of which they issue 3 per battalion. Brazil is interested in acquiring proper AT guns.

For support each Brazilian infantry battalion is issued 3 81mm Brandt Mortar clones and each cavalry battalion 3 60mm.

Standard Brazilian AA is machine guns on AA mounts, with 13.2mm Hotchkiss guns in use for protecting higher headquarters. Heavy AA is in the form of Canon de 75 M1897 on AA mounts.

The standard Brazilian field artillery piece is the Canon de 75 M1897, with the Schneider M1919 mountain gun as a supplement. In reserve are Krupp 7.5cm field and Mountain guns of various types, all predating WWI.

Heavier pieces include the Schneider 120mm M1915 Howitzer and Canon de 105 M1913 Schneider, with Krupp 105mm Mountain Howitzers and Field howitzers in reserve. The heaviest are Canon de Court M1917 Scheider, a 155mm Howitzer and Canon de 155mm GPF, a long range field gun.

Brazil has a small tank force.

About 20 are US M1917, half with machine guns and half with cannon. These are supplemented by 5 Mark VIII Rhomboids.

More Modern are 20 international Harvester 5 ton export tanks, 30 MPH, protected against machine guns with a pair of turreted mounted 7mm weapons.

Brazil operates a force of armored cars on converted truck chassis, about two dozen of various models.

The Brazilian Army is lightly motorized with no real effort at standardization.

Naval Forces:

Brazil has a navy on the larger side of medium.

The most powerful ship in the Brazilian Navy is the Battleship Riachuelou, a 35,000 ton 28 knot ship built in the US to a British design with British guns. She has 9 15”/45 in triples, A-B-C, with C superfiring, 6 twin 6”/50 aft, 6 4.7”/40 AA, 16 37mm AA guns and 20 20mm autocannon after her last refit. She is well protected from 15” fire and carries two float planes but has the normal issues of an export design.

Rio de Janeiro is a 27,000 ton battleship, originally ordered by Brazil, sold to Turkey, seized by Britian and then bought back. She has 14 12”/45, in 7 twin turrets on the centerline, 12 6”/50, 4 4.7”/40 AA, 8 37mm AA and 12 20mm Autocannon after her last refit. She has the most main battery turrets of any battleship, but was deficient in protection against 12” shells by the standards of 1913 and has very poor underwater protection.

The Minas Geraes and Sao Paulo are 19,000 ton battleships built in the UK. They have 6 twin 12”/45, 4 centerline with two superfiring and two wing turrets in echelon, without crossdeck fire, 14 4.7”/50, 4 4.7”/40 AA, 8 37mm and 8 20mm AA. They were lightly armored against 12” fire by the standards of 1910 and had inadequate underwater protection then, and only made 21 knots new, 20 presently.

Brazil has a modest cruiser force of 6 vessels. The Ceara and Espiritu Santo are 12,000 ton US built vessels capable of 34 knots and lightly protected against 8” fire. They have 4 twin 8” guns, centerline superfiring, 4 4.7”/40, 4 twin 37mm AA and 4 twin 20mm AA, along with 2 triple 21” torpedo tubes.

The Santa Catarina is a 5500 ton vessel capable of 29 knots built in the UK. She has 3 twin 6”/50, two fore, one aft with one fore superfiring, 4 4”/40 AA, 2 twin 37mm, 4 20mm AA and 2 triple 21” torpedo tubes. She is lightly protected from 6” fire and has a float plane.

The Goias is a Coln class cruiser received as reparations in WWI, grafted together from two written off vessels. She is 5600 tons, makes 27 knots and is lightly protected from 6” fire. She has 8 15cm/45 in singles, 2 3” AA, 4 20mm AA, 2 twin 21” torpedo tubes and can carry 200 mines.

The Bahia and Rio Grande del Sul are 3100 ton 28 knot British built scout cruisers. They have 10 4.7”/50 in single mounts, 2 3”AA, 4 47mm guns, 4 20mm AA, two depth charge rails and two 18” torpedo tubes. They are only protected against destroyer caliber fire and have been refitted to oil firing.

Brazil has a moderate sized destroyer force. The oldest are the 6 remaining Para class, 550 tons and 27 knots. They have 2 4”/40, 1 3” AA, 2 47mm, 2 20mm AA, 2 single 18” torpedo tubes and a depth charge rail.

2 K class destroyers were purchased from the UK after WWI, 950 ton 29 knot vessels. They have 3 4”/40, a 3” AA, a 20mm cannon, 2 single 21” torpedo tubes and a depth charge rail.

6 Javary class destroyers are in service, 1350 ton 35.5 knot vessels built in the UK. They have 3 4.7”/45, 2 twin 37mm AA, 3 20mm cannon, 2 quad 21” torpedo tubes, a depth charge rail and two throwers.

Under construction are 4 Greenhalgh class destroyers, domestic copies of the 1600 ton US Monaghan type. The differences are the deletion of a set of torpedo tubes for a 5th 5” turret, and an AA armament of 4 37mm and 4 20mm guns. They will complete in 1940. Brazil is considering another batch of 4-6 of them.

6 locally built Camaqua class minelaying gunboats are in service, 14 knot 650 ton vessels. They have 2 4”/40, 2 20mm AA and can carry up to 50 mines. 2 more are under construction to complete in 1942.

Brazil has 4 Racecourse class paddle wheel minesweeping sloops bought from the UK, 800 tons and 15 knots. They have a 2 3” guns and a pair of machine guns.

Four Pernambuco class river monitors are in service on the Amazon, 500 tons and 12 knots. They have a 120mm/45, 2 47mm, an 81mm mortar and 4 20mm cannon.

Brazil has a modest submarine force.

4 are large Humayta class vessels from Italy, 1500 tons, 18.5 knots surface, 10 submerged with a 13,000 knot range. They have a 120mm/40 deck gun, 2 13.2mm machine guns, 4 bow and 2 stern 21” tubes with 12 torpedoes or 16 mines.

4 more are smaller Italian 600 type Tamoyo class. 700 tons, 14 knots surfaced, 7.5 knots submerged with a 5200 knot range. They have a 100mm/47 deck gun, 4 bow and 2 stern 21” tubes with 12 torpedoes and 2 13.2mm Machine guns.

Brazil is considering building a copy of the US Grenadier class domestically

Brazil has a small Naval Air Arm and a regiment of Naval Infantry.

Air Forces:

Brazil has a small Air Force of 350 planes.

The sole fighters currently operated by Brazil are 30 P-27 Porcupine export variants from Boeing, with 2 7mm machine guns. They are in discussions to purchase more modern fighters.

Supporting them are 30 A-13 Attack aircraft as light bombers, older biplane designs. Replacing them are 40 Fairchild model 16, a modern all metal Monoplane with an enclosed cockpit and retractable gear, with a 1100 pound bombload and 4 machine guns, with an 1100 mile range, it has mediocre speed and is hampered by a low ceiling.

Brazil operates an additional 50 Observation aircraft of various imported models that can double as light attack aircraft. Another 50 Observation aircraft cannot do the same. These are of a wide diversity of models that make logistics difficult.

The remaining 150 aircraft are primarily trainers, with a few basic domestic designs, but mostly imported, along with a handful of transports.

The Brazilian Navy operates about 100 aircraft. 20 of these are single engine float planes, 30 Maritime Patrol and 50 trainers. Brazil operates many types with relatively few of each type making for difficult logistics.



Brazil lacks paratroopers or advanced aeronautical research

Weapons of Mass Destruction:

Brazil uses Mustard Gas and Chlorine, delivered by artillery shell and aerial bomb

Brazil lacks biological or nuclear weapons programs

Problems:

Brazil lacks military industry

Brazil has significant internal factional tension

-The Eve of War, the World on October 1st 1940, Eagle Press, Philadelphia, 2001
 
Yichang goes much as OTL it seems?

That spat about the Hundred Regiments Offensive shows just how blurry the past is in TTL, marred by destroyed records and propaganda. Sounds like the modern Chinese government is no more honest with history than OTL. Also, very surprised that there are enough Japanese sources, given how badly they got destroyed OTL and that TTL is like worse.

"significant internal factional tension" interesting, Brazil might not be so eager to join the war TTL.
 
Yichang goes much as OTL it seems?

That spat about the Hundred Regiments Offensive shows just how blurry the past is in TTL, marred by destroyed records and propaganda. Sounds like the modern Chinese government is no more honest with history than OTL. Also, very surprised that there are enough Japanese sources, given how badly they got destroyed OTL and that TTL is like worse.

"significant internal factional tension" interesting, Brazil might not be so eager to join the war TTL.
I have a feeling most of continental Eurasia is going to be in tatters but my gut tells me that Imperial Japan isn't likely to lose as badly as OTL where they rushed to destroy all the records they could manage to before being occupied.
 
I have a feeling most of continental Eurasia is going to be in tatters but my gut tells me that Imperial Japan isn't likely to lose as badly as OTL where they rushed to destroy all the records they could manage to before being occupied.
Could also be the Japanese army in China goes rouge after Japan surrenders and becomes it's own warlord faction. With the reason the records regarding the offensive surviving being that whichever group held them defected to the KMT for some reason.
 
Could also be the Japanese army in China goes rouge after Japan surrenders and becomes it's own warlord faction. With the reason the records regarding the offensive surviving being that whichever group held them defected to the KMT for some reason.
Fascinating idea, and possible. Given the general vibes of this story and past events (e.g. only evacuating half the historical amount of factories from Shanghai) Japan is probably going to get deeper into China and stay there longer than OTL. Meanwhile their defeat at home cannot be postponed long (even mismanaged, the Manhattan project will deliver by '46 and the USN won't be far behind).
 
"significant internal factional tension" interesting, Brazil might not be so eager to join the war TTL.
That was already true OTL. And, more importantly, USA was willing to massively pay for very little on Brazil's part, so the country not joining is more down to USA not being so willing to do so than anything in Brazil.
 
That was already true OTL. And, more importantly, USA was willing to massively pay for very little on Brazil's part, so the country not joining is more down to USA not being so willing to do so than anything in Brazil.
Thanks for that info. I often have trouble telling what more obscure details in this TL's writing are from OTL.
 
Part 6-39 Fall of Europe
…On the 17th the French High Command woke up to reports of disaster. What they thought had been a battered but intact Army holding onto a tenuous but continuous front was anything but. Ninth Army had almost completely disintegrated and Second Army was down a Corps with the other two in bad shape. There was functionally no unit larger than a brigade between Laon and Paris, leaving the capital dangerously exposed to a German offensive. Worse still in their minds was that the flanks of the Maginot line were hanging open, with the flanks of the forces in Belgium on the Dyle Line little better positioned. Southeast, Southwest or North, any way the Germans attacked was potentially a disaster.

The decision was made by 9:00 to have the forces in Belgium conduct a withdrawal to the Scheldt Line to avoid the possibility of being outflanked. Six divisions were pulled from the reserve to protect the Maginot Line while the newly formed 6th Armored and the 2nd Light Armored, having been pulled out of Belgium, would counterattack the German breakthrough from the south on the Serre River on the 18th to buy time for additional forces to arrive to defend Paris.

The French and British Air Forces would make a maximum effort to destroy the Bridges over the Meuse that the Germans were using in order to buy further time…

…German recon flights detected the beginnings of the Anglo-French withdrawal to the Scheldt shortly afternoon and air attacks on the retreating forces began at 2:00 and continued until nightfall, with harassing attacks from ground troops starting at 3:00. The Germans made no serious attempt to break the line, simply to try and prevent the Anglo-French from making a clean withdrawal and redeploying their forces to face the breakthrough to the south…

…Anglo-French air attacks on the Meuse reached a peak on the 17th. Almost 300 bombers attempted to attack the bridges over the key river. The Meuse Valley however had become known as the valley of death for Anglo-French aviators with good reason and over 100 of the bombers were lost. Another hundred had not even made the attempt, simply dropping their bombs at the first sign of German AA and immediately turning tail. This was in stark contrast with the Luftwaffe, which was constantly pressing home its attacks in support of the advancing Panzers…

…Prime Minister Eden and the British cabinet were initially unconcerned about the German breakthrough. From experience in the Great War they believed that it would peter out after around a week and be contained. Correctly assessing that it involved the majority of the German Panzers, motorized infantry and airpower the assessment was that the Germans would not be able to launch such a heavy attack again and counterattacks would be able to push back the Germans in short order.

Communications with the French government soon indicated that the French did not have such a rosy view of matters and by 11:00 it was decided that Eden would fly to France to meet with Chautemps and try and work things out. Upon his arrival in Paris at 5:00 he found that the French government was in a complete panic and considering evacuating the city. No reserves were in place to defend the city and they would not be until the 21st. Insufficient forces were available to launch major counterattacks and the Germans controlled the skies.

Chautemps begged Eden for 15 squadrons of fighters to counter the German Air Superiority, particularly the new Bandits that the RAF kept back for home defense. Eden, aware that the RAF was well below its establishment strength argued him down to 10 squadrons, all Glaives, something that was still enough to make Chief Air Marshal Peirse extremely concerned about the state of Britain’s air defenses…

…French censorship finally broke down by on the 17th. The morning editions of the various papers reported that the situation was contained, but by noon new editions and radio reports were stating that there was a major disaster on the Meuse. Panic soon gripped the French nation and by afternoon refugees were streaming out of northern France en masse, clogging roads, hindering the movement of Anglo-French reinforcements to the front and adding to the general confusion of the situation…

…French forces continued to launch counterattacks against the village of Stonne on the 17th, but with the exhausted Panzers replaced by motorized infantry with plenty of anti-tank guns, they had only limited success and by the end of the day the Germans continued to hold that vital hilltop position, and thus the extreme southern flank of the breakthrough…

…German Panzers continued to advance all day on the 17th, almost completely unimpeded. The remainder of the French 1st Armored and the scattered 5th armored attempted to counterattack, but the small isolated pushes were easily dealt with and the two divisions almost completely destroyed by nightfall. So few opposing forces were present that the Luftwaffe in the area was able to almost completely concentrate on deeper interdiction missions to hinder the movement of French troops to the battlefront.

By nightfall the German main body had reached a line from Bousignes on the Franco-Belgian border to Marle on the Serre river, with recon forces 5 to 10 miles further ahead. In moving so fast however they had become exhausted and outran both their supply lines and the reinforcing infantry that was to guard their extremely long and vulnerable flanks. The divisional and corps commanders, including such luminaries as Heinz Guderian, Erich von Manstein, Walter Model, Werner Kempf and Georg Reinhardt, wanted to continue the attack, feeling that it was the perfect time to advance with the French in a state of disorganized panic. On the other hand the Army Commanders, Anton von Wietersheim and Hermann Hoth, as well as Army Group Commander Gunther Von Kluge, disagreed wanting an operational pause to allow the panzer troops to rest and repair their machine, of which more than half had broken down, for the logistics to get sorted out and for the supporting infantry and the two reserve panzer divisions to arrive.

The matter was brought up to the highest levels and with the unanimous recommendation of the Wehrmacht High Command Hitler agreed to the pause, despite his instincts to continue the attacks. It was agreed that a 24 hour pause in operations, followed by 24 hours of limited reconnaissance in force operations would occur before the panzers would move again.

The French would have 48 hours to bolster their defenses and prepare for the coming storm, if they could use them properly…



-Excerpt From The Fall of Europe, Scholastic American Press, Philadelphia, 2005




Okay no eve of war this week, between interviews, overtime, leaves and general unwellness I just couldn't do it. Probably skipping Eve of War in two weeks as well
 
Where is Churchill and why is Eden PM?
Gallipoli is a much larger failure ITTL, with heavier Entente casualties and 7 battleships lost in the campaign.

Churchill being tied to the larger failure at Gallipolli probably set back his political ambitions significantly, so he isn’t a contender for PM in 1940.
 
Part 6-40 Fall of Europe, Setting Sun, Eve of War: Argentina
…During the night of the 17th into the 18th the French light armored and light mechanized divisions traded place with the other Anglo-French divisions on the Dyle line, returning from reserve to screen the withdrawal of the heavier divisions. As the French divisions best suited for mobile warfare it was a task they were the best choice for in theory. In practice however it placed the only highly mobile French combat power in Belgium, facing 4 relatively weak Panzer divisions, instead of in France containing seven stronger ones.

Similar to the withdrawal of the ground troops was a withdrawal of air forces from exposed forward bases to ones further towards the rear, away from the advancing Germans. This was of greater import as it not only curtailed Anglo-French fighter operations at a key time but also led to overcrowding of the airfields at the rear, something made worse with the arrival of additional British squadrons in the following days…

…The French launched three counterattacks on the 18th. The first and most well-known one occurred in the south of the bulge by the 6th Armored and 2nd Light Armored in the direction of the Serre River. Staging out of Laon the two divisions attacked early in the morning and immediately overran the outlying German defenses, the 3.7cm and even a battery of Czech built 4.7cm AT guns proved useless against the heavy French B type tanks spearheading the attack. By midmorning the Germans were in retreat and the French were advancing almost unimpeded to the Serre.

At around noon the French reached the Serre and were engaged by a battery of 88mm Flak guns. The AA guns managed to kill over twenty French tanks but were wiped out by sheer numbers, leaving the French free to cross the river and enter German rear areas almost unimpeded by land forces. At 12:30 however the first of four large waves of German bombers attacked the French armored forces. Under heavy air attack the commander of the 6th Armored, already finding it difficult to maintain cohesion in his newly raised division, lost his nerve and ordered a withdrawal to wait for the arrival of his infantry. This bought time for the German artillery to get in action and the indirect fire inflicted considerable delay on the French infantry. The combination of air attack and artillery bought sufficient time for a pair of motorized regiments to arrive and dig in on the Serrre, backed by additional batteries of 88mm guns in the late afternoon.

The Second counterattack was a continued attack at Stonne where for a third day the French attempted to push the Germans off the hill. This was once more a failure involving a futile uphill charge into dug in anti-tank guns and infantry, if a well-supported one covered by large amounts of artillery. By midmorning the German motorized troops defending the hill were being relieved by advancing leg infantry, allowing them to advance to the Serre and dig in against the French counterattack there. The third day of fighting managed to render the French 4th Armored and its supporting units hors de combat and unable to launch further assaults.

The final counterattack was on the northern end of the breakthrough. The 4th Light Mechanized Division unlike its siblings was ordered to serve as the start of a northern counterattack to pinch off the German bulge with the aid of the 1st and 5th Armored divisions and two motorized divisions. The armored divisions had been effectively destroyed on the previous day, something Paris was still unaware of, and both motorized divisions were too disorganized to join the attack, leaving the 4th Ligh Mechanized to attack alone in early afternoon. The 4th at Beaumont just inside Belgium had its armored regiment led into a textbook anti-armor ambush by a company of Panzer IVs, being lured into a dozen 88’s in their front before finding multiple batteries of lighter anti-tank guns hiding on their eastern flanks, leading to the loss of over 70 tanks and a German counterattack that gutted the division…

…As the 18th wore on an exaggerated sense of relief began appearing in Paris. The Germans were not advancing on the lightly defended city, ergo they could not advance on the city and the situation was not as bad as had been feared. With the retreat to the Scheldt River going as planned and reinforcements arriving to defend both Paris and the Maginot line the situation was improving by the hour. The fact that there was only a narrow line of underequipped divisions on the line of the Sambre-Oise canal to hold back the Germans from the sea was thought irrelevant, yes they would be unable to hold off a German attack and would need to retreat, but the Germans would not attack there, it would not allow them to take Paris or outflank the troop concentrations of the Maginot line or Belgium like attacking in other directions would.

Instead the French focused on allocating blame for the failures up to this point and determining who would replace Gamelin…

…By nightfall on the 18th it was agreed that Weygand would step up as Gamelin’s replacement in command of the French forces. Unable to send for Foch as their fathers had done in WWI, they chose to bring in his chief of staff as the next best thing. Weygand was an experienced officer and had planned the successful Polish defense against the USSR, if anyone living could deal with the situation France was facing it was Weygand.

Supporting him would be a special adviser, Marshal Phillipe Petain, the Lion of Verdun, and greatest living French commander. While too old to hold command the Old Marshal’s presence would be a major balm to French morale…

…As the Panzers halted the high command of the Wehrmacht debated on what to do next. A large faction wanted to slow things down to a more deliberate pace as to avoid potentially snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, even if it meant potentially giving the Anglo-French time to react. A smaller faction wanted to keep with the plan as written, it had worked already and there was no sign that was going to change given the obvious French disarray. An even smaller faction wanted to throw out the plan and launch a two pronged assault to eliminate the French in one campaign, with Army Group Center taking Paris while Army Group North encircled the Anglo-French forces in Belgium. Of course ultimate authority on what course of action would be taken rested with Hitler, who for the moment favored continuing with the plan as written.

The discussions of the high command were soon rendered irrelevant by events at the front…

…As their troops rested and performed vitally needed maintenance the commanders of the 7 Panzer divisions and 3 Panzer Corps held an informal series of meetings. Almost unanimously they wanted to keep advancing, but they had orders to stay put and Befehl ist Befehl. The reconnaissance in force scheduled for the 19th provided them with a potential opportunity to wiggle out of the spirit of those orders while sticking to the letter. Rather than conduct it with the usual scouting forces backed by a moderate amount of combat power they agreed to conduct the coming operation with everything but their headquarters and support echelons.

By nightfall in the 18th they were ready to restart their advance and there was little more standing in their way than the day before…

-Excerpt From The Fall of Europe, Scholastic American Press, Philadelphia, 2005

…Anthony Eden became Prime Minister in February 1939 following Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s decision to make a gradual withdrawal from politics for health reasons. Eden as Foreign Secretary was a logical choice for a successor with the disgrace of both the Home Secretary and the Chancellor of the Exchequer rendering them unsuitable for the top position. Chamberlain would remain in the cabinent as Foreign Secretary to advise Eden before his bowel cancer forced his complete retirement in June 1940 shortly before his death in late September…

…Eden despite his major mistakes in unconditionally guaranteeing Poland against Chamberlain’s advice, not walking back the guarantee when he had the chance to and in approving the Norway Operation despite his personal misgivings had the making of a great PM. He was enough of a realist to recognize the precarious position of the British Empire, was aware of his own limits, generally knew when to take advice, and was diplomatic enough to have working relationships with even those he despised. Unfortunately his third major mistake would be the fatal one.

After Norway turned from a bloodless occupation to a bloody diplomatic fiasco even before the Royal Navy failed to stop the Germans from joining the campaign Eden’s popularity took a nosedive. As the campaign dragged on and the Germans conquered Southern Norway it was clear that he would need to resign. That he was still Prime Minister into June was mainly due to a desire on the part of the War Cabinet to let things play out completely before replacing him to avoid any blame falling on his successor. For the good of the Empire Eden agreed to go along with this ploy, despite a stated desire to resign as early as May 5th…

-A Setting Sun, the Decline and Fall of the British Empire, Bodley Head, Nottingham, 2015


The Republic of Argentina

Basics:

Argentina is a nominally democratic republic under a coalition government, though in practice it is a conservative authoritarian state with only nominal democracy. Argentina was neutral in the conflicts of the 20th century so far.

Economy:

Argentina is a primarily agricultural exporter, exporter beef and grain as its main products with wool and mutton as important secondary products. It is not a major exporter of raw materials and is highly dependent on energy imports and is lacking in industry

Land Forces:

Argentina has a conscript army of 200,000 organized into 7 regional divisions loosely based on pre WWI German TOE of 4 infantry and 1 cavalry regiments, with additional independent battalions as needed.

The standard Argentine long arm is the model 1909 Mauser, a domestically made Gewehr 98 variant in 7.65x53mm Argentine Mauser. In reserve are M1891 Mausers in the same cartridge. Limited numbers of Belgian M36 Mauser clones are in service with consideration for mass production of that or the FN Model 38 semi-automatic.

The standard Argentine side arm is the Browning Hi Power in 9mm parabellum, with older revolvers and automatic pistols of various models in reserve. Argentina has a number of MP 18 clones in service for their MPs and specialist troops in 9mm Parabellum.

The standard Argentine light machine gun is the Madsen in 7.65mm, issued as a squad weapon. As a heavier weapon 4 M1917 Colt Machine guns in 7.65mm Mauser are issued per company. In reserve are MG08 in 7.65mm Mauser. Some Madsens in 11.35mm are issued for air defense or anti vehicle work.

The standard infantry support weapon of Argentina are 81mm Mortars, of which each battalion has 3. For AT support each regiment has a company armed with 12 AT rifles, 20x105mm Solothurn semi-automatics. Argentina is considering buying 3.7cm German AT guns.

Standard Argentine AA is machine guns on AA carriages. Heavier AA is 20mm Oerlikons from Switzerland and 40mm Bofors from Sweden. Heavy AA is WWI era 75mm guns bought from France or modern 75mm FLAK guns from Germany.

The standard Argentine regimental gun is the German 7.5cm Infantry gun, all older horse drawn models, issued 6 per regiment. The standard field gun is the Canon de 75 M1897, and its American clones in 75mm, supplemented by modern 75mm/22 Bofors Mountain guns. In reserve are 7.5cm Krupp guns of various models, primarily the model 1909, as well as 7.5cm Krupp mountain guns.

Standard Argentine divisional Artillery is the 105mm/24 from Sweden supplemented by the 150mm/22, generally 36 and 12 per division, modern interwar pieces. In reserve are pre WWI Krupp export 10.5cm and 15cm howitzers. For very heavy field artillery Argentina has 3 independent battalions of 15cm/55 bought from Germany, modern late 30’s pieces meant for motor traction.

Argentina has a medium tank force divided into independent battalions.

45 are US M1917 6 ton models, 20 with machine guns and 20 with cannon, with 5 radio equipped command tanks.

30 are Czech LT 33 light tanks with a 3.7cm gun and machine gun, modest armor and slow speed.

30 are Panzer IV, the upgunned model with 3.7cm main guns.

Argentina is considering producing a domestic light tank and is shopping around for the best choice.

Argentina operates about 50 armored cars on truck chassis with machine guns, domestically converted and of no standardized model.

The Argentine army is poorly motorized with limited standardization on mostly British and American models of vehicle.

Naval Forces:

Argentina has a navy on the borderline of medium and large.

Most powerful are the Veinticinco de Mayo and Nueve de Julio, Francesco Caracciolo class battleships from Italy ordered as Francesco Caracciolo and Cristoforo Colombo. They are 31,500 tons, make 28 knots and have limited protection against 15” shells after their last refit in Italy. They currently have 4 twin 15”/40, 6 twin 152mm/55, 8 single 100mm/50 DP, 24 37mm and 16 20mm AA, with two float planes.

The Rivadavia and Moreno are US built dreadnoughts, 27,500 tons and 22.5 knots after their refit to oil burning. They have 12 12”/50, 4 centerline superfiring and 2 wing en echelon with crossdeck firing, 12 6”/50 in broadside casemates, 8 4”/40 AA, 4 37mmm 12 20mm AA and 2 21” torpedo tubes on the broadside. They have limited protection against 12” fire by WWI standards and are deficient in underwater protection and compartmentalization.

The Libertad and Independencia are 2300 ton coast defense ships built in the UK. They make 11 knots and are only protected from 6” fire in an obsolete scheme at limited ranges. They have 2 240mm/35 Krupp guns in single turrets, 4 4.7”/40 in single turrets, and 4 18” torpedo tubes. They are part of the Argentine coast guard as stationary pilot ships but can be reactivated if needed.

The General Belgrano and Pueyrredon are Italian built Garabaldi class armored cruisers. They are 8,000 tons, make 20 knots after conversion to oil burning and have protection against 6” guns in an obsolete scheme. They have 2 10”/40, 10 6”/40 in broadside casemates, 4 3” AA, 4 37mm and 6 20mm AA guns, with 4 18” torpedo tubes. They are used as training vessels and two additional members, Garibaldi and San Martin, are in use as a submarine and destroyer tender respectively, armed with 4 8”/45 instead of 2 10”/40 and their secondaries removed they could be recommissioned if needed.

The Los Andes, Patagonia and El Plata are 10,000 ton Italian built heavy cruisers. They make 32 knots, have limited protection from 8” shells, carry one float plane and are relatively short ranged. They have 4 twin 19cm/52, 6 twin 100mm/47 DP, 2 triple 533mm torpedo tubes, 8 37mm and 8 20mm AA.

The Almirante Brown is a 8,200 ton British export cruiser based on the Sapphire class. She makes 32.5 knots, carries a float plane, has some protection from 6” shell fire and accommodation for large numbers of cadets. She has 10 6”/50 guns, 2 twins superfiring over 2 triples, 4 4”/45 AA, 6 37mm and 8 20mm AA and 2 quad 21” torpedo tubes.

Argentina has a mid-sized destroyer force. The oldest are the two German built Catamarca class, 1000 tons and 27 knots. They have 4 4”/50 and 4 single 21” torpedo tubes, with 2 20mm Autocannon, 2 machine guns and a depth charge rail added in refits. The two Cordoba class are similar but built at Schichau rather than Germaniaweft.

The 4 San Luis class are 950 ton French built ships seized during WWI and bought back after the war. They make 32 knots and have 4 100mm/45, 1 37mm and 2 20mm AA, a depth charge rail and 4 single 450mm torpedo tubes.

The 4 Mendoza class are 1650 ton British built vessels capable of 36 knots. They have 5 4.7”/45 in singles, a 3” AA, 4 20mm AA, 2 triple 21” torpedo tubes and 2 depth charge rails.

The 8 Misiones class are 1450 ton British built vessels capable of 35 knots. They have 4 single 4.7”/45, 2 37mm and 4 20mm AA, 2 quintuple 21” tubes and 2 depth charge rails.

Argentina is considering domestically building a class of 4 small destroyers

Under construction are 4 domestic Minelaying sloops of the King class. 1200 tons and 18 knots they have 3 100mm/47 DP, 2 37mm and 4 20mm AA with up to 60 mines. They are expected in 1945, 46, 47 and 48 respectively.

2 Constitucion class Rendel gunboats from Britain remain in service. 420 tons and 8 knots they have 2 3” AA and a 4.7” Howitzer currently and are used as transports

The two Rosario class river gunboats are British built 700 ton 14 knot vessels with limited protection against field artillery. They have 2 6” Howitzers, 4 3” guns, 2 37mm and 2 20mm AA.

10 German M1915 and M1916 type minesweepers are in service. 500 or 600 tons with 1 or 2 10.5cm guns.

10 Drummond class minesweepers are in-service, domestic 500 ton 15 knot diesel powered vessels. They have a 100mm/47, 2 37mm and 2 20mm AA.

Argentina has a small submarine force. The 5 Salta class vessels are 950 ton Italian built vessels. They make 15 knots surfaced, 8 submerged and have a 5000 knot range. They carry 4 bow and 4 stern 533mm tubes with 12 torpedoes, a 100mm/47 and 2 20mm cannon.

Argentina is in negotiations to buy 5 larger submarines from Italy.

A single 2700 ton sail training ship, the Presidente Sarmiento is in service.

Argentina has a small naval air arm.

Argentina has a regiment of Naval Infantry under joint Army/Navy control.

Air Forces:

Argentina has a medium independent air force of about 250 aircraft, organized on the British pattern.

The standard Argentine fighter is the P-37 with 50 in service and local license production, armed with 1 11.35mm and 3 7.65mm MGs. 30 French D. 23 export fighters remain, open cockpit fixed gear monoplanes they are slow, unmanueverable, low ceiling designs with 4 7.65mm machine guns.

The standard Argentine light bomber is the US A-18 of which 30 are in service. This is complemented by 20 B-14 export bombers. An additional 10 domestic FMA Bombi are in service, slow, unstable single engine aircraft with a low ceiling, short range and 3 11.35mm machine guns and an 800 pound bombload. In reserve are 20 ancient Breguet B.19 export biplanes, a low performance thoroughly obsolete biplane with a short range and a 1000 pound bombload. FMA is developing a domestic twin engine bomber.

The remainder of the Argentine Air Force consists of trainers, liaison aircraft and transports of a variety of designs. The standard transport is the German Ju 56.

The Argentine Navy has 80 aircraft.

10 are B-14 export bombers for maritime patrol. This supplements 10 P3Y flying boats and 5 Saunders Roe Severn flying boats.

15 US built Grumman amphibious biplanes are in service as shipboard scouts along with 15 older Vought biplane float planes filling the same role.

The remaining aircraft are trainers and transports.

Argentina lacks paratroopers or advanced aeronautical research.

Weapons of Mass Destruction:

Argentina has a small stockpile of mustard gas and chlorine to be delivered by bomb and artillery shell.

Argentina lacks nuclear or Biological weapons programs

Problems:

Argentina is dependent on energy imports

Argentina is politically unstable

Argentina lacks industry

Argentina has a territorial dispute with Britian over the Malvinas Islands

-The Eve of War, the World on October 1st 1940, Eagle Press, Philadelphia, 2001


Next weeks update probably delayed to Monday, will not have an eve of war thanks to holiday related overtime
 
Oh snap there's some nasty politicing in Britain I see.

Argentina eh? Their navy's not bad, I'm curious what they'll get up to- "Argentina has a territorial dispute with Britian over the Malvinas Islands"

Oh snap. The naming suggests Argentina will succeed in conquering the Falklands at some point well before 2001. Perhaps they'll join in during WW2? Their multiple battleships could cover the landings well if Britain is tied down elsewhere. Question is, why would America let them keep them psot-war?

Anyways, how DOES Argentina keep its capital ships maintained with almost no local industry?
 
Argentina showing up makes me think this will somehow get the minors in South American taking pot shots at each other and drag the whole reason into the war
 
Part 6-41 Fall of Europe
…The German Panzers made a night march on the 18th into the 19th , and dawn broke just as they arrived in position for an assault on the Sambre-Oise Canal. The few skirmishes they had fought in the night proved insufficient to warn the French that something major was underway, and the arrival of the Panzers was completely unexpected. Caught with their trousers around their ankles the French more often than not panicked, the class B units holding the canal proving to have even less mettle than their comrades on the Meuse. Despite a few strong defensive actions by mid-morning four infantry divisions were routed and the Germans were across the canal in seven places, having captured a number of bridges intact with the French inexcusably failing to have demolished them. By nightfall the Germans had reached San Quentin and beyond, reducing a cluster of fortress on the Belgian border near Maubeuge in the process. Token attempts by higher headquarters to stop the recon in force ceased by midday after the news of the crossing of the Sambre-Oise Canal sank in and they realized the weakness of the French in front of them.

The French attempted to continue their counteroffensive at the Serre but the 14th Panzer, one of the reserve divisions had been moved up, and facing a full division scale counterattack the French immediately withdrew to dig in against what they thought was a potential action against Paris. This was one factor that prevented the French from realizing the objective of the German assault on the 19th, as the Germans had given up all attempts at subterfuge, announcing in the evening edition papers that their objective was the channel. The presence of the Panzers at the Serre and an attack on an exposed Maginot Line Fortress known as La Ferte, convinced the French otherwise.

On the 20th they would finally be convinced as the Panzers continued to advance, now 9 divisions strong as the 13th and 14th Panzer divisions moved up to the front from the reserves. Facing them was a thin barrier of line of communications troops covering the Canal du Nord, including several half armed divisions from the BEF. By noon the Germans reached the canal, and by midafternoon they had crossed it, overrunning the weak forces that were often completely lacking in AT weapons or effective artillery.

Despite the obviousness of the degree of peril the French frontlines were in General Weygand found himself highly constrained in how he could deal with it. The fall of La Ferte to the Germans meant that he could not withdraw troops from behind the Maginot Line. The line had taken an outsized position in the French psyche and the fall of even an isolated and lightly armed fortress such as the formally named Ouvrage Villy-La Ferte had a profound impact. To avoid a panic he had to detach several independent tank battalions to reinforce the Maginot line, admittedly using sleight of hand to get away with sending obsolete FT-17s.

His options to withdraw troops from Belgium were just as limited. His predecessors decisions meant that the light armored and mechanized divisions had seen heavy fighting screening the retreat to the Scheldt and needed to rest and reorganize for several days, while the other divisions were engaged on the line as it now stood. The only troops available were British and while nominally under his operational command he could not simply order them about like his French troops. He was able to work with the British general staff and receive promises of a Corps level counterattack spearheaded by an armored division, no earlier than the 22nd.

In the meantime he stopped the shipment of the 5 light infantry divisions raised for Norway and had them mobilized to cover the south end of the German bulge while he desperately tried to find some heavier forces to counterattack with…

…As the magnitude of the disaster that had befallen the French was truly understood the question of blame appeared front and center in the French consciousness. Obviously their defeat could not simply be the results of martial failings of the French people or mere bad luck, no it had to the result of treason. A vast pro-German fifth column that allowed the Meuse bridges to be captured intact, that laid vast supply dumps for the German advance and directed Luftwaffe bombings. This was of course nonsense, but it was widely excepted by the French as the cause of their miseries.

A great deal of French effort was wasted on countering 5th columns and airborne infiltrations that did not exist, while paranoia over them increased the sense of panic. This intensified the refugee streams that were clogging the French transit system and inhibited operations against the Germans…

…By the end of the 21st the Germans had advanced to a line from Peronne to Cambrai to Maulde, 9 Panzer divisions on a 60 mile front with only 60 miles and a few scattered territorial units between them and the sea. The Luftwaffe continued to own the skies, disrupting any Anglo-French troop movements it could observe and preventing any effective resistance from mobilizing. The only problems the Germans faced were a lack of supply and their long exposed flanks. This was concerning for the high command of the Wehrmacht and they petitioned Hitler to pause the offensive. Unlike with the decision to pause on the 18th the commanders of the two armies in question, Von Wietersheim and Hoth, both wanted to keep pushing and even Army Group Commander von Kluge was ambivalent. This was enough for Hitler to offer some resistance to the General Staff but the unanimity of the top brass of the Heer was almost enough to convince him to counter his aggressive instincts, and would have if not for the commander of the Luftwaffe.

Von Richthofen’s argument was simple. As presented to him the Nehring Plan relied on speed and violence of action in its execution to succeed. An unneeded pause went against those principles and was likely to have a negative effect on the plan. Better to go all in on an imperfect plan than to half ass a perfect one was his response, which served to convince Hitler. There would be no pause, the Panzers would roll and the French would get no reprieve they could not earn themselves…

…On May 20th the Anglo-French offensive in Norway ground to an immediate halt as orders were sent to act purely on the defensive to conserve supplies and reinforcements for France. On the 21st this was expanded with a decision to conduct an evacuation of Trondheim to free up even more forces for the critical theater. The Norwegians would fight in defense of the city to buy time, and then to conduct a fighting retreat to Narvik, but the British and French would not themselves attempt to hold the city any longer.

Admittedly this move only freed up two divisions when all the Anglo-French troops in the city’s environs were added together, but there was the matter of air support. With the desperate need of the front in France they would not be able to reinforce the air wings defending the sky over the front. This would quickly leave Trondheim as vulnerable to isolation as Stavanger, and to preserve the combat power of the forces deployed there they needed to be evacuated before the situation became that critical…

…The abandonment of Trondheim dealt a heavy blow to Norwegian morale and the legitimacy of the royal government. The king begged the British and French to hold Trondheim, but they refused, concern for France overriding the concerns of a minor and reluctant ally. With a heavy heart King Haakon decided to evacuate Trondheim with the British and to go into exile, as Narvik lacked the facilities for governing the realm and he feared it too would be abandoned.

As he made that decision resistance to the German invasion and occupation by Norwegian governmental bodies and civilians began to die down as more and more began begrudgingly accepting Quisling’s government…

-Excerpt From The Fall of Europe, Scholastic American Press, Philadelphia, 2005





Okay I technically had this written last night, but wanted to actually proof it, too much holiday overtime. Still feeling like crap from whatever I had last week so don't expect an eve of war next week, though I should have an update on time. Won't be many more Eve of War anyways

Merry Christmas, or Happy Holidays as you prefer
 
@RamscoopRaider : Merry Christmas good sir. I have a two part but otherwise single question, which I theorize you answering will not spoil anything that much for your readers but will be a nice bit of knowledge to have when thinking about what we read going forward... so, ITTL, is Von Richtofen as influential to Hitler as Goering OTL? Part two to that question, does he make it to the end of the war in some functional state of being or will something occur to remove him from control of the Luftwaffe? (Like, say, assassinated? I don't want to know if/how he may die or be removed, only if it happens or if he is analogous to Goering aside from actually being competent)
 
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