Ghastly Victories: The United States in the World Wars

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Part 5-41 Into the Abyss
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    • RamscoopRaider

    Donor
    …By February of 1940 Hitler had squandered much of the financial leverage that annexing the Sudetenland had given him. Germany was once more nearing a balance of payments crisis that would derail his rearmament plans. The rational thing to do would have been to reduce the breakneck pace of rearmament to something the German economy could sustain, while diplomatically working on his next goal. Rationality however was not Hitler’s strong suit.

    He saw that the rump Czechoslovak state had large reserves of gold, enough to solve Germany’s balance of payments issue for most of a year, along with important military industry that could allow him to accelerate his armament programs. Denuded of its border fortifications, and with essentially all of its plans rendered obsolete, the country was ripe for the taking. The problem was that at Vicenza he had agreed to do no such thing, having declared himself satisfied with ensuring the self determination of the Germans of the Sudetenland. Conquering Czechoslovakia would be publicly breaking his promises in a way that would make it clear that he wanted to do more than just reverse the wrongs done to the German people.

    However he had an idea. He had promised to respect the integrity of Czechoslovakia. If there was no Czechoslovakia, why he had no problems with taking what he wanted in Bohemia…

    …Hitler summoned Alexander Mach of the Slovak People’s party to Germany in March. Hitler explained to Mach that he planned on annexing the rich industrial areas of Bohemia and Moravia, but that he cared little for the mostly agricultural Slovakia. However he did note the substantial German minority within Slovakia of 130,000 and that his hand might be forced into having to incorporate them into Germany. If however Mach, and by extension the Slovak government was willing to cooperate and declare independence ahead of the German annexation, then Hitler would be able to sell a compromise to the German people. Hitler would further ensure that the Slovak state would be protected from any exterior threats.

    As an added threat Hitler went behind Mach’s back to Admiral Horthy in Hungary. He asked Horthy to rattle some sabers at Czechoslovakia, if he did so then Hitler would look favorably on Hungary acquiring Carpathian Ruthenia if Czechoslovakia broke up. Horthy had tried to acquire that territory in the discussions before Vicenza, but had been stopped by Sanna, who would not sign off on such a blatant violation of the principle of self-determination. Horthy agreed, and in doing so shifted his implicit allegiance from Sanna to Hitler.

    Thus when the Hungarians mobilized on March 20th, Hitler was able to pressure Mach into agreeing to his deal. Hitler made a public statement on the 24th, and the Hungarians backed down publicly.

    The Stage was thus set for Mach to announce to the Slovakian Parliament on April 6th that he was calling for a vote on the immediate independence of Slovakia. He accused the Czech government of making several violations of the Vicenza agreement, most specifically the arrest several days prior of a group of SPP officials in a border area, an incident he had specifically incited. Much of the Parliament was skeptical but the mood quickly changed when the German-Slovak bloc pointed out that if they didn’t leave they would be at ground zero when Berlin and Prague had it out again. Thus Slovakia voted for independence on the 6th and declared the Czechoslovak state dissolved.

    This was treated with extreme alarm in Prague and on the 7th there were desperate entreaties by President Hacha to reverse the secession. On the 8th however he found that he had bigger problems as Hitler sent an ultimatum. Having observed several violations of the Vicenza agreement, all provoked by the Volkists, Hitler declared that he was forced to act in the interests of protecting the remaining Germans of Bohemia and Moravia by returning the historically German lands to German control. Hacha was given a choice, he could surrender and retain power in an autonomous region within the Greater German Reich, or he could fight and see the Czech lands directly incorporated into Germany. Hacha chose the former and on the 10th the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia was officially formed as German troops bloodlessly occupied the country…

    …Hitler’s occupation of the Czech lands created enormous outrage. His claims that Vicenza was null and void with the succession of Slovakia was seen correctly as a mere fig leaf. Strong condemnations came from London, Paris and Rome, along with a coordinated embargo of military equipment, a minor provision of Vicenza that now entered force. Further condemnations emerged from a host of nations both major and minor across the world. Hitler had openly shown to the world that he could not be trusted to keep his word…

    …Hitler’s conquest of Czechoslovakia enormously changed the balance of power in Europe. The mobilization strength of the Wehrmacht increased overnight from 90 divisions to 120 divisions, now matching that of the French. 500 tanks, 1600 planes and over 3000 artillery pieces had been added to the German order of battle. The Czech war industry, one of the largest in the world, now served Germany, enabling Hitler’s arms buildup to further accelerate…

    …The capture of the Czech gold reserves further delayed a German bankruptcy, one that had been imminent since 1938. While the reserves in Prague itself were not small, the majority of the Czech gold reserves had been sent to London or Switzerland for safekeeping. These reserves were, due to the personal intervention of the Director of the Bank of England, placed under German control despite the firm desire of the British government that this not happen.

    This gold enabled Germany to stave off bankruptcy until the true beginning of the Second World War by drawing down these reserves to pay for increased imports, mainly from those countries they could not compel to accept IOUs and could not easily barter with…

    …Hitler’s conquest of the Czech lands made it clear to all and sundry what his next target was, Poland. A large German minority existed in the territories transferred to Poland at Versailles and a Polish corridor divided East Prussia from the rest of Germany. For most of the world this was seen as the greatest threat to European peace, but for a few it was an opportunity…

    …On the 9th of April the Carpatho-Ruthenian Autonomous Region of former Czechoslovakia attempted to join the Slovak state. It found itself invaded by the Hungarians on the 10th before the matter could be deliberated. Slovak paramilitary forces fought several skirmishes against the Hungarians, but they withdrew when Hitler threatened to withdraw his protection of the independent state. The Hungarians thus took full control over the region by the 15th.

    The Hungarians then attempted to gain a chunk of Eastern Slovakia starting on the 20th. About 2000 square miles were occupied over the course of 48 hours against only light resistance from the newly established Slovakian Army. Two days later however, Admiral Horthy found himself with an unpleasant communique from Berlin. Hitler was quite cross with the Hungarians attempting to take more than their deal had allowed for and was threatening to embargo military equipment to Hungary if he didn’t leave now. This would, along with an actual arms embargo from Sanna, weaken Hungary relative to Romania, who quite wanted to bite off Hungarian Transylvania. Horthy thus pulled his forces back from Slovakia and agreed to recognize the border as it was between regions in Czechoslovakia. His opportunism had almost pushed too far and left him completely isolated.

    Horthy was thus forced to pivot towards Hitler, which forced the Romanians into a stronger relationship with Sanna…

    -Into the Abyss: The leadup to the Second World War, Harper and Brothers, New York, 2009
     
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    • generalurist

    RamscoopRaider said:
    These reserves were, due to the personal intervention of the Director of the Bank of England, placed under German control despite the firm desire of the British government that this not happen.
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    Wow did this happen OTL? Either way, that director's head is probably going to roll as Britain's misery ramps up.
     

    RamscoopRaider

    Donor
    Vabasion said:
    I feel like the German debt crisis is too often overstated as an issue. Majority of MEFO was Germany owin to Germany.
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    It's not so much their debt as their balance of payments, because most other countries would not accept MEFO bills, which meant they needed to pay in hard currency, gold or barter. They were constantly running a deficit, and being the era of the gold standard could not just inflate their currency to compensate, so they were chronically low on foreign exchange and by the time the war started were running on crazy low margins, ie 2 weeks reserve when the standard is 6 months if I recall Tooze correctly
    generalurist said:
    Wow did this happen OTL? Either way, that director's head is probably going to roll as Britain's misery ramps up.
    Click to expand...
    OTL, as it turns out when the head of the Bank of England is best friends with the head of the Reichsbank, you get collusion. OTL he was rewarded by being given a title of nobility when he retired in 1944
     

    Vabasion

    RamscoopRaider said:
    It's not so much their debt as their balance of payments, because most other countries would not accept MEFO bills, which meant they needed to pay in hard currency, gold or barter. They were constantly running a deficit, and being the era of the gold standard could not just inflate their currency to compensate, so they were chronically low on foreign exchange and by the time the war started were running on crazy low margins, ie 2 weeks reserve when the standard is 6 months if I recall Tooze correctly

    OTL, as it turns out when the head of the Bank of England is best friends with the head of the Reichsbank, you get collusion. OTL he was rewarded by being given a title of nobility when he retired in 1944
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    Wages of destruction is a good book but it has its own point to prove. As is common with history books they all have a hundred explanations for things and sometimes opposing ones. German economy expanded as fast as military spending. Spending even dropped as fraction of gdp compared to economy over time. The militarization couldn’t be kept up forever sure but there was also no imminent doom and collapse awaiting. Like you mentioned the gold was used for immediate purchases of imports, lack of it simply impacts the ability to import and thus further ability to militarize rather than National function.
     
    Part 5-42 Into the Abyss
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    • RamscoopRaider

    Donor
    …In late 1939 Franklin Roosevelt announced his intention to respect the two term precedent and decline to run for reelection despite his enormous personal popularity. In doing so he removed a certain deal of Congressional opposition that he faced, which allowed him to maintain, or even expand some of his New Deal Programs in his last year in office. The major question quickly became who would succeed him as the new Democratic Nominee. Roosevelt preferred that he be succeeded by another progressive who would continue what he started in the New Deal. However the Democratic Party higher ups were opposed to that idea. Roosevelt had driven farther than many of them were comfortable with, and they did not want someone else to continue his work. The bosses were also worried that with the Depression having mostly abated Roosevelt’s progressive policies were growing less popular among the electorate.

    The Party bosses led by James Farley and Roosevelt thus compromised on Vice President John Nance “Cactus Jack” Garner of Texas. While a relative conservative Garner was a supporter of most New Deal legislation, and his active role in the administration left him impeccably qualified to serve as President. Roosevelt thus agreed to endorse Garner for the slot, both to avoid splitting the party and to deny Louisiana Governor Huey Long any chance at the office. Garner was thus elected on the first ballot as the Democratic candidate, pulling far ahead of Long.

    In terms of Vice President things were more divisive. It was agreed among Roosevelt and the party bosses that a progressive was needed to balance the ticket. Roosevelt wanted former agriculture secretary Henry Wallace for the slot, while the bosses wanted Indiana governor Paul V. McNutt, who was arguably more of a centrist than a progressive. In the end McNutt was chosen, as Wallace was seen as far too liberal for most of the delegates of the convention.

    Opposing them in the election was Senator Robert Taft of Ohio. Taft had fought a strong campaign against Manhattan district attorney Thomas Dewey for the role. Dewey however was seen as too young and inexperienced, something his charisma and popularity could not overcome. The key moment was when Senator Arthur Vandenburg of Michigan went for Taft, which soon saw him reach the magic number of 501.

    Running alongside Taft was Senate Minority leader Charles McNary of Oregon, who was chosen to balance the ticket, a westerner to Taft’s easterner and faced no major opposition…

    …It was briefly speculated that Huey Long would make a third party run, as he had threatened to do as far back as 1936. Long however had internal problems. His opposition in Louisiana had coalesced around representatives of Standard Oil, who were angered by his tax on oil production. Running for president would expose him to attacks from outside Louisiana, which might be the excuse needed for his opponents to depose him. He thus declared that he was neutral in the 1940 election, declining to endorse either candidate, and thus tacitly supporting Garner…

    …The early parts of the US Presidential campaign were defined by domestic policy, namely should the New Deal be immediately ended as Taft wanted, or the objectionable parts be gradually rolled back and the remainder kept as Garner advocated for. Neither candidate thus inspired much enthusiasm in progressives, and the question was would Garner gain enough traction among moderates outside the Solid South to win. Events in Europe provided a major October Surprise that completely changed the nature of the campaign…

    …The 1940 Olympic Games were the last prewar games and both the Winter and Summer Games for the year were originally scheduled to occur in Japan, Sapporo for the Winter Games and Tokyo the following Summer Games. However, with the outbreak of fighting with China Japanese authorities decided that they could no longer afford to host the games, and forfeited the rights to do so at the IOC meeting in 1938.

    The Winter Olympics were instead held in Garmisch-Partenkirschen in Bavaria for the second time in a row due to a disagreement with the Swiss Olympic Committee over the amateur status of Ski instructors. They occurred under a similar cloud as the previous games in 1936 due both to the issues of Volkist Germany and Japan and China not abiding by the traditional Olympic truce, similar to Ethiopia and Italy in the previous Olympiad. The Summer Olympics were awarded to Helsinki Finland and were a much less controversial affair than either Garmisch-Partenkirschen or Berlin in 1936, as Finland was not Volkist Germany. Apart from the Sino-Japanese violation of the Olympic Truce, the major scandal was the snubbing of King Charles by Hitler at the Opening Ceremony due to the support the latter provided to conservative anti Volkist elements.

    The Helsinki Games were the last Olympic Games until the 1956 Melbourne Games. London had been scheduled for the 1944 games and had received 1956 by default, however lingering damage from WWII and continuing rationing led to London deciding to delay their games until 1960 and let Australia have the first postwar games…

    …During the late 30’s conservative opposition to Hitler began to coalesce in Finland and the Baltic States. Many of his early monarchist supporters from the old DNVP turned on Hitler by 1935 when it became clear that he had no plans to restore Wilhelm II or to crown his son as Wilhelm III. After facing harassment from the various secret police arms of the Volkist state these groups fled to the protection of the Baltic states and Finland, where they were sheltered by the German monarchs with whom they felt a great deal of kinship. This of course infuriated Hitler and the usually good relations the countries had enjoyed under the Weimar Republic rapidly went into the gutter…

    -Into the Abyss: The leadup to the Second World War, Harper and Brothers, New York, 2009
     
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    • generalurist

    So Huey Long's assassination was butterflied away TTL- fascinating! Makes sense to avoid the cliche of him becoming president, but I am quite curious what other shenanigans he got, and will get, up to.

    RamscoopRaider said:
    Events in Europe provided a major October Surprise that completely changed the nature of the campaign…
    Click to expand...
    WW2 starting a year later, and hence happening during the American campaign season, is quite interesting- it provides the opportunity for some truly unique political events!

    Overall, a fun chapter ^_^
     
    Kalga

    Kalga

    Jim Smitty said:
    Yes, but how brutal was the war to delay the games till 56 given its 1940 right now.
    Click to expand...
    Could be any combination of events, though the most likely (given economic limitations) being that one where the active component is similar to OTL in length, but significant chemical & biological weapons (if not nukes) are used, hence a much longer and slower recovery period.
     

    Brylyth

    Banned
    Seems Finland is gonna end up less of a Axis minor and more of a full Baltic Alliance 4th side to WW2 that starts with a tactical but very delicate alliance with the Axis. Funky.
     

    Lemonfish

    OTL the first summer Olympic post war was hosted in London....in 1948.
    So yeah, this version of WW2 must went horribly wrong for the games to be delayed until '56.
     
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    Wet Coast

    Lemonfish said:
    OTL the first summer Olympic post war was hosted in Switzerland....in 1948.
    So yeah, this version of WW2 must went horribly wrong for the games to be delayed until '56.
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    That was the winter games in 48, summer games were in London, but the point stands.
     

    Admiral Matt

    Gone Fishin'
    RamscoopRaider said:
    On October 28th the Japanese launched their renewed offensive up the Yangtze. The plan was for seven divisions to launch a diversionary thrust up the northern bank of the Yangtze, while four divisions would attack Wuhan from the south after traversing the Wangjialing hills. Almost immediately things began to deviate from their plans.
    Click to expand...

    Wanjialing!!! (One g.)

    Just left the battlefield two days ago and talked with a survivor a few hours before. My wife's hometown is a country lane off Wanjialing Road. Flanking through those hills before even the early PRC roads... a classic case of IJA optimism, I'd say. Yikes.

    Okay, back to read the update properly.
     
    Part 5-43 Into the Abyss
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    • RamscoopRaider

    Donor
    …In July the Japanese launched a series of attacks south of Wuhan. Supported by gunboat flotillas they advanced along the Yangtze to Lake Dongting, pushing Nationalist Chinese forces back as they did. The Chinese were content to withdraw in the face of Japanese attacks, preferring to withdraw intact so that they could stretch out and defeat the Japanese. They made a brief stand at the Xinqiang River to sell their plan, sacrificing several poorly equipped divisions in the process.

    The Japanese once more rapidly advanced, cutting their way to the Mi-lo river against only a light Chinese screen. At the Mi-lo was a stronger, but not particularly strong Chinese force with adequate fortifications. It was there in order to inflict casualties on the Japanese, but not enough to dissuade them from attacking Changsha, where once the Japanese were focused on trying to take the city, elite Chinese troops concealed in the hills to the east would attack and pin them to the Xiang river for a battle of annihilation. The Japanese in turn were required to launch a major assault on the Mi-lo river line in order to sell the idea that Changsha was their objective, and not Nanchang to the east.

    The Japanese assault on the Mi-lo line proved a costly one, as the force attacking Changsha lacked the quantity of heavy artillery and air support to truly smash the Chinese defenses. It did however have enough support to put small parties across the river in several places. In order to avoid losing actual quality troops the Chinese thus withdrew, despite easily being able to contain the Japanese lodgments.

    The IJA commander on the scene somewhat exceeded his orders by using his main body South of the Mi-lo in an attempt to destroy the retreating Chinese, but he withdrew his main forces back to the Mi-lo after the Chinese successfully gave him the slip. Instead he pushed his recon units towards the city, advancing as far as the Laodao river before being stopped cold by the defenders. At this point the Chinese considered counterattacking but with the Japanese main body still too far north they decided the time was not right. The Japanese were obviously waiting for their heavy artillery to arrive before their main body would move up to Changsha where they could trap it.

    The Chinese were not aware that the attack on Changsha was a grand scale feint. Instead the real attack was 175 miles to the east. Advancing south via the Gan River and Poyang Lake the Japanese advanced on Nanchang. Facing much less resistance with a stronger force they arrived at the city by the end of July and immediately began an encirclement operation. The Chinese commander on the scene, warned not to give up Nanchang to a feint like Suizhou and Zhongxiang were, hesitated to withdraw until it was too late, trapping over 50,000 men in the city.

    The Chinese were still unsure whether this was a feint or Changsha was, until Japanese siege artillery was spotted being barged down the Gan. It was now obvious that Nanchang was the Japanese objective and Changsha a mere feint. A portion of the Chinese troops east of Changsha launched a counterattack while the remainder headed east to try and relieve Nanchang. The Counterattack was successful in driving back the Japanese screen, their main body took more work and inflicted heavy casualties before it was driven north of the Mi-lo.

    The relief of Nanchang proved to be a disaster. Like the Austrians at Przemysl in WWI, the Chinese lost more troops attempting to relieve Nanchang than were in the city, unlike the Austrians they failed to inflict more casualties than they suffered in the relief attempt. 70,000 Chinese troops were lost attempting to relieve Nanchang, confined by the hilly terrain west of the Gan valley they were forced to attack into the teeth of superior Japanese firepower and suffered for it.

    Nanchang would fall on September 3rd after brutal urban fighting and extensive use of gas that killed thousands of civilians as collateral damage. The Japanese had captured a Chinese provincial capital and inflicted heavy losses, while suffering only modest losses in return. The IJA thus considered the campaign to have an acceptable result…

    …In July the Japanese landed at Yamchow among other ports in southern China as they tightened their blockade. Unlike with most other ports the Japanese captured they were not content to stay at Yamchow but sent a large force inland. This force had as its target the Kunlun pass, and with it the vital supply route from the port of Haiphong, a port the Japanese could not blockade.

    Defending the pass was three divisions of the Nationalist Chinese army, backed up by a battalion of tanks, several batteries of anti-aircraft and anti-tank guns, and two squadrons of the Chinese Air Force’s precious modern fighters. The Chinese were well dug in and not lacking in protection against chemical weapons, a relative rarity for them. This force left the Japanese in a quandary.

    The Chinese were too dug in for their field artillery to inflict more than modest casualties and were protected against gas. Their fighters and AA guns meant the Japanese bombers could not fly low and slow in order to accurately hit the fortifications, which were far out of range of the IJN’s naval artillery. Lacking siege artillery the only Japanese option was a straight out assault.

    Supported by tanks the Japanese launched several head on assaults on the Chinese position. However for once in the war the Chinese had adequate anti-tank firepower and after the third failed assault the Japanese were out of tanks. They attempted several night assaults over the next few days, but failed to make more than minor gains at the cost of heavy casualties. In an attempt to break the stalemate the Japanese attempted a regimental scale paratrooper deployment to outflank the position, that turned into a debacle resulting in 2,000 dead, missing or captured paratroopers due to the rough terrain they jumped in.

    On September 10th the IJA called off the attack. They had take 20,000 casualties and lost a large number of tanks in exchange for inflicting 12,000 casualties on the Chinese and destroying 7 tanks, their worst large scale performance so far. With the success at Nanchang the IJA felt that they had nothing politically to gain by continuing the attack, too much glory would go the IJN who’s plan it was. Instead they would withdraw to the coast and husband resources for a decapitation strike on Chungking next year…

    …The Chinese would laud their defense of Changsha as a major victory, claiming that they had stopped the Japanese from taking a second provincial capital. They would continue to do so even after the war ended and Japanese records made it clear that they never intended to take Changsha in 1940. The genuine victory at Kunlun Pass receives far less attention in China than the false one at Changsha.

    The claimed victory at Changsha and the actual victory at Kunlun pass did revitalize Chinese morale and made the war look winnable as the Japanese record of victories was now broken. They also signaled to the world that the Chinese could successfully beat the Japanese and that supporting them was not a fruitless endeavor…

    -Into the Abyss: The leadup to the Second World War, Harper and Brothers, New York, 2009
     
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