Ghastly Victories: The United States in the World Wars

Japan is in a damn if they do and damn if they don't phase. China however is totally fucked. I honestly wonder if the Soong Sisters will throw Peanut under the bus.

Also I agree with the bah humbug to everyone leaving their grocery shopping to the 24th.
 
Sounds like Wuhan fell much quicker than OTL, albeit with a bit more Japanese casualties. Now that they're cut off, the reduced industrial evacuation early in the war will HURT.
 
Part 5-38 Airpower
…If it hadn’t been apparent beforehand the Czech crisis had revealed the unpreparedness of the air arms of both Britain and France. As it stood neither could stand up to Germany, nor even both together, or at least so was the perception. This was one of the convincing factors in their reluctance to back the Czechs, the belief that they could do nothing to stop German bombers from levelling London and Paris.

As a result both powers began taking extraordinary measures to catch up with the Germans. In Britain they began turning the shadow factories from allocated space to actual facilities that could expand aircraft production and replace their existing airframes. This was combined with an ambitious attempt to “skip a generation” in monoplane fighters in order to catch up with the Germans, who had not been so wedded to biplanes.

The French, whose difficulties were in expanding aircraft production were primarily political, instead turned towards importing rather than increasing domestic production to the same degree as in Britain. Large orders were placed with the United States, for any firm that could deliver aircraft quickly. America’s own aerial buildup complicated this, as did the higher price of American aircraft compared to French alternatives given the costs of labor. Similar orders were made with Fokker in the Netherlands, with rather less acrimony than the American purchases. A major problem was the insistence of the French aviation unions that aircraft for the French military could only be armed at a single factory, and a reluctance to expand the workforce to compensate…

…By 1939 five countries had active programs to develop a long ranged four engine heavy bomber. In France and the USSR these programs were mostly running on inertia, they had built 4 engine bombers in the interwar period and those bombers now needed replacement. Neither air arm saw them as a particularly high priority and placed only modest resources to their development.

In Britain they were seen as a second best solution, the RAF had poured a considerable amount of money into developing extremely large and powerful engines to produce twin engine bombers capable of acting it long ranges. These engines had by 1938 not left the testing stand and the decision was made to use four smaller engines instead. In 1939 three companies submitted prototypes of four engine aircraft for a new bomber competition.

In Germany the heavy bomber had mostly been ignored. Von Richthofen had in large part believed that the Zeppelin and bomber raids of WWI had been wastes of resources and that bombers should instead be employed in support of tactical or operational endeavors, leading to large numbers of single engine dive bombers and twin engine fast bombers respectively. Hitler for his part cared more about the number of bombers than their size and was content with this decision. The war scare with the USSR over Czechoslovakia saw Von Richthofen be convinced that Germany might need a heavy bomber. The Soviet Union was a vast nation with poor infrastructure. Attempting to sustain a large frontline air force in the event of a war in the USSR would be difficult, thus it would be better if the bombers could be kept based in Germany. A development, but not a production, program was authorized to produce a bomber that could bomb the Urals from East Prussia.

Finally the United States proved to be the most enthusiastic supporter of heavy bombers. The USAAF wanted to adopt one as early as 1936 when one was submitted by Boeing for a new bomber competition, but it lost on cost grounds to a twin engine model from Douglass. In 1939 however a series of competitions were established for very long range bombers. The first, the Hemispheric Defense Bomber, was built around Boeings entry from 1936 and called for an aircraft that could directly reinforce Panama, Hawaii or Alaska from bases in the Continental US. This would be followed by a Hemispheric Counter Offensive Bomber, an Oceanic Offensive Bomber, and a Global Offensive Bomber, each with progressively more ambitious specifications for range, speed, ceiling and bombload.

Neither Italy nor Japan showed any interest in large four engine bombers. In Italy it was felt that shorter ranged 3 engined bombers would be sufficient for the tasks expected of the Italain Air Force, and that four engines would be extra cost and complexity for minimal gain. In Japan the IJA and IJN both felt that they could get the required range by building lightly built twin engine aircraft, accepting reductions in speed, ceiling and defensive armament given the low threat environment they were believed to face, though the IJN did work on some rather large 4 engined flying boats with auxiliary bombing capability…

…1939 saw the Japanese begin a campaign of strategic bombing against China. Targeting first Wuhan and later Chunking both the IJA and IJN conducted what was for them large scale attacks. The Chinese shortage of AA made the Japanese attacks relatively safe from ground fire, with only a small number of 75mm German pieces being able to reach the altitude of the Japanese bombers. The fighters of the Nationalist Chinese Air force proved more effective, but the Soviets were reluctant to supply their most modern variants of the I-17 and I-18 fighter aircraft, it found itself not only heavily outnumbered but increasingly outmatched by the Japanese as time went on.

The Japanese campaigns were straight out of the morale bombing theories that dominated the pre war era. A mix of HE and incendiaries were used to generate civilian casualties and break Chinese morale. Like in Spain this did not work, but the Japanese proved more stubborn than the German and Italain volunteers and kept at it. When casualties due to Chinese fighters and AA grew too high, they shifted to night attacks. The Chinese, lacking dedicated night fighters, responded by using their day fighters in that role, with some success.

Overall however the biggest impact of the Japanese strategic bombing campaign was to concentrate Chinese air strength at Chungking, leaving the Japanese with complete supremacy elsewhere over the front…

…By 1939 the Soviet Union was starting to lose the advantage they had gained with the innovative I-18 in the mid 30’s. The first low cantilever wing enclosed cockpit monoplane with retractable landing gear was showing its age. Its mixed construction, still using wood and fabric in some places, was becoming outdated compared to all metal counterparts in other countries.

The Red Air Force recognized this however they were held back by two key factors. The first was the Great Purge by Stalin causing administrative chaos and resulting in talented individuals being killed or sent to the gulag. The second problem was their limited industrial base, while Stalin had increased the quantity of Soviet industry compared to its Czarist predecessor, at enormous cost in blood, he had done little for the quality. As a result the Red Air Force was finding it difficult to build to the higher tolerances required of aircraft of the new generation…

-Excerpt from Airpower!, Dewitt Publishing, Los Angeles, 2010
 
Well then with air power being a couple of years behind OTL will make WWII even messier than I already thought it would be.
 
Most obvious divergence from OTL seems to be no B-17 equivalent, so the US might not be able to launch a bombing campaign as quickly as OTL?
 
Most obvious divergence from OTL seems to be no B-17 equivalent, so the US might not be able to launch a bombing campaign as quickly as OTL?
At the same time it might mean by the time the US can launch a bombing campaign they'll have long-range escort fighters.
 
Part 5-39 Steel Talons
…By the end of 1939 most nations had begun the process of phasing out their WWI holdover small arms for a more modern set of weapons. Usually this consisted of new machine guns, semi-automatic pistols, sub machine guns and semi-automatic rifles. There were however exceptions to this trend due to various local and financial considerations.

The British for example were satisfied with their Thompson submachine guns from the 20’s and saw no need for more of the weapons. Similarly they were satisfied with their revolvers for sidearms and decided on cost grounds not to purchase a semi-automatic pistol. To replace their Lewis guns, the Holek, a derivative of the Czech ZB 26 was adopted, at first in .303 but later .276 Enfield. Similarly the British went Czech to replace their Vickers guns, choosing a derivative of the ZB-53 as the Rolik gun, that being a mispronunciation of the designers name. Finally the Number 39 rifle was adopted to replace the Enfield, a derivative of the Danish-American Bang rifle of the early 20’s it was unique in having a full bolt action as a backup to the Semi-Automatic system. This decision was made as many in the British Amy were worried about a semi-automatic action not holding up to trench conditions. The new rifle, medium machine gun and later models of the light machine gun were chambered in an updated derivative of .276 Enfield, whose adoption had been precluded by a combination of immature technology and the outbreak of WWI. The adoption of the Rolik made the choice of a rimless cartridge to replace .303 British a necessity and the .276 was chosen for its long range accuracy over the other option of 7.92x57mm Mauser that was being consider.

The members British Empire did not all follow the mother country’s lead in small arms. Almost all preferred to stick with .303 British as their main service cartridge and none chose to adopt the Number 39 Rifle, instead sticking with the Lee Enfield. India adopted the French Bertheier Machine gun instead of the Holek, while Canada adopted the Hout, a development of their Ross Rifle, South Africa modified the Lee Enfield into the Rieder Automatic Rifle, and Australia and New Zealand did the same to the Lee Enfield with their Charlton. The Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders all planned to adopt the Holek in .303 but needed a stopgap before that happened.

By contrast to the British the Germans were sticking with their bolt Action rifles in 7.92x57mm Mauser for reasons of cost, having to equip a large army without masses of WWI surplus meant they could not afford more advanced semi-automatic rifles, instead issuing a simplified carbine version of the venerable Gewehr 98. A cheaper 9mm pistol from Walther was chosen to replace the costly Luger. In submachine guns the Germans replaced their secretly amassed MP-18 derivatives with a simpler Vollmer derived series of progressively simpler designs in 9mm. In machine guns the Germans were the most innovative and they developed the MG-35 in 1933, the first general purpose machine gun, almost as light as a dedicated LMG but as effective at sustained fire as a medium machine gun, it would replace all of their legacy machine guns as quickly as possible. The Germans mostly stuck with 7.92 Mauser as their standard rifle cartridge, even for the experimental semi-automatic Gebirgjager Rifle issued in small numbers, but a shortened 7x43mm version of the Spanish Mauser cartridge was adopted for the Falschrimjagers automatic rifle. These two low production weapons were meant as combat prototypes to determine if Germany should skip to true assault rifles as some post WWI analyses suggested, or simply stick with semi-automatic.

The French were one of the very few powers to adopt a totally new bolt action rifle in the late 30’s. Despite adopting a semi-automatic in the closing days of WWI, and attempting to adopt one before the war, the French had never managed to equip a large portion of their forces with it, and most RSCs had been converted to bolt action in the 30’s to improve reliability. Their experience had showed them that they wanted a Semi-Automatic even before WWI, but their budget meant they could not equip all of their forces with it, so a new bolt Action, the MAS -36 in their new 7.5mm cartridge was developed to complement the MAS-38 semi-automatic for use with colonial and reserve troops and replace the obsolescent before WWI Lebel and the stopgap Berthier. This was combined with the MAS 39 7.65mm SMG based on Vollmers captured in Spain, and a semi-automatic pistol in the same cartridge. Uniquely the French did not attempt a major upgrade of their machine guns, having done so in the 20’s, and settled for merely rechambering them to the new cartridge.

Italy was odd in introducing two new rifle/machine gun calibers in the late 30’s. The Italians had realized that sharing ammunition between belt fed machine guns and stripper clip fed rifles never occurred in practice, thus they could afford to specialize rather than adopt a compromise caliber, choosing 7.35x51mm for magazine fed weapons and 8x63mm Swedish for their belt fed weapons to replace the obsolescent 6.5mm Carcano. The former was used in the Breda M1935 semi-automatic rifle and the M1937 domestic copy of the Czech ZB26 machine gun, the latter in their FIAT M1935 and Breda M1938 medium machine guns. These were supported by conversions of existing bolt action rifles to 7.35mm and a number of excellent 9mm pistols and submachine guns from Breda.

Japan was fairly conservative in its development of small arms. It introduced a copy of the Czech ZB26, as many powers did, but otherwise stuck with bolt action rifles and strip operated, oil lubricated, heavy machine guns, admittedly new models chambered in a new rimless 7.7mm cartridge that was non interchangeable with the rimmed 7.7mm cartridge already used by the IJN. It continued to issue its standard automatic pistol from the 20’s and only tentatively began development of an SMG based on the MP18 after seeing its success in urban warfare in China. They continued to have a number of odd approaches, having finally ended their insistence on rifles having overly long barrels for bayonet fighting they instead begin issuing them with sights for AA use, and they remained the only developed country to widely issue swords as actual sidearms.

Despite the Soviet reputation by the end of 1940 they had arguable made the most progress of any nation bar the US in reequipping their infantry. A new reliable light machine gun with a unique pan magazine had replaced all their older models, which mostly went to Spain or China. Two different semi-automatic rifles were produced and by the start of 1940 a third of frontline infantry had the new weapon and a new medium machine gun was being introduced. All of these used the venerable 7.62x54mmR cartridge for reasons of logistics. In terms of lighter arms they were supported by pistols in a modified 7.63mm Mauser cartridge and a well-designed sub machine gun in the same, though lagging production meant that revolvers continued to be produced alongside automatic pistols.

The United States had, of the major powers, done the best of rearming its infantry. By the start of 1940 the Springfield and Enfield rifles were phased out of the regular army and work on equipping the National Guard with the new semi-automatic rifle had begun. The new belt fed BAR variant had totally replaced the Lewis gun and older BAR models, outside of units using the short Jungle Model BAR for patrol work, and the new lightweight and simplified Grease Gun SMG had replaced the Thompson. The United States was satisfied with only minor changes to its M1911 pistol and M1919 Machine gun, both of which had been fairly advanced when introduced and remained broadly competitive. The main issue was that of the two caliber system the US had adopted for its service rifles, with the Regular Army getting .30-06 and the National Guard .276, leaving their rifle ammunition non interchangeable. This however was considered an improvement over the Pedersen were the same infantryman would be carrying .30-06 and .30 Longue, and the plan was to reequip deployed National Guard units in the case of a colonial war or to divert .30-06 to training in the case of a world war…

…By the end of 1939 the German Army was operating on the assumption that war was imminent. This meant that many mid-term development programs had to be ceased as they would not be ready in time. Most prominent among these was the Panzer VI program. Issues with its suspension and new engine were proving extremely difficult to solve. The decision was thus made to cancel it and to build a variant of the Panzer V with slightly thinner armor, the intended 5cm gun and the originally intended weapon as an ersatz cavalry tank…

…The overall timing of WWII proved problematic for many nations. It was long enough after the Great Depression for money to be available to finally start replacing obsolescent if not obsolete equipment from the Great War, if not before. However it was not long enough for that process to have been underway for very long. Thus almost everyone found themselves facing a dilemma without an easier answer, do they stick with the older equipment or do they go with the new, either approach being problematic and resulting in logistical difficulties. The question many would find themselves asking was how badly do they need equipment now as opposed to later…

-Excerpt from Steel Talons: Armed Forces of the Interwar, Dewitt Publishing, Los Angeles, 2011




Okay we will get to important developments next week, assuming my cringey side project doesn't eat my time
 
So Germany cancels a tank program just before the war- this will bite them back in the ass when the war isn't over in a year and they have to design new tanks on short notice, which will see reliability issues like the OTL panther due to the hasty design cycle.
 
Of got the British using a semi-auto Bang Rifle with a back up bolt action. Dear mother of god, is this the Mauser G-41? Because that thing was a fucking nightmare. Got nothing bad to say about the ZB-53 or Bren gun but the switch to a new round has me worried about British logistics going forward.

While I'm worried about Italian logistics as well their plans make some amount of sense if I read this right. Also 8 x 63 in machine gun form is going to be a mother to those on the wrong end of the barrel. But as to pistols I have to ask is 9 mm Para or 9 mm Short? I'm not a big fan of the 9 mm Short, but I do like 9 mm Para no matter the heat I get on from the gun line where I shoot at.

Japan is going to Japan.

A belt fed BAR? I honestly have mixed feelings about that. Honestly I was hoping the US would adopt the Winchester Automatic Rifle as that thing just looks like it would be a sweet LMG. But if they didn't make the horrible A2 BAR I take it as a win. But Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with American logistics. Just why?
 
Of got the British using a semi-auto Bang Rifle with a back up bolt action. Dear mother of god, is this the Mauser G-41? Because that thing was a fucking nightmare. Got nothing bad to say about the ZB-53 or Bren gun but the switch to a new round has me worried about British logistics going forward.

While I'm worried about Italian logistics as well their plans make some amount of sense if I read this right. Also 8 x 63 in machine gun form is going to be a mother to those on the wrong end of the barrel. But as to pistols I have to ask is 9 mm Para or 9 mm Short? I'm not a big fan of the 9 mm Short, but I do like 9 mm Para no matter the heat I get on from the gun line where I shoot at.

Japan is going to Japan.

A belt fed BAR? I honestly have mixed feelings about that. Honestly I was hoping the US would adopt the Winchester Automatic Rifle as that thing just looks like it would be a sweet LMG. But if they didn't make the horrible A2 BAR I take it as a win. But Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with American logistics. Just why?
You basically read that right

9mm Para

Basically the assumption is that .276 uses less brass/propellant per round, which in a world war is important, while at the same time in a world war you won't be able to train your infantry to really use a rifle beyond 500 yards, so the advantages of .30-06 aren't there. At the same time in a colonial war with pre war well trained regulars, the extra reach of .30-06 is useful and more relevant given the lesser amount of heavier weapons in such a conflict. In peacetime its not that much of an issue beyond extra paperwork, in wartime one of two things are planned to happen
  1. Colonial War, NG Unit X you are deploying to the Pacific in 90 days, here are your .30-06 to get familiar with them, your .276 are going into storage
  2. World War, Regular Army unit, here is your .276, your .30-06 is going to training units alongside the old Springfield's and Enfield's, you have 45 days to get used to the new caliber before you go to Europe
 
The Falschrimjagers automatic rifle you mentioned, is that an FG-42 with a smaller rifle cartridge or a whole new alternate design?
 
Part 5-40 Into the Abyss
…With the fall of Wuhan, still usually referred to as Hankow at the time, there was a vigorous debate in Japan on what should be done next. The IJA wanted to conduct a campaign against Chungking itself, however that city was protected by a series of gorges on the Yangtze River. It could not be attacked directly and a series of preparatory attacks would have to be conducted to allow the IJA to threaten the city, primarily attacks to take control of the territory needed to penetrate Sichuan province from the northeast. In order to paralyze the Chinese so that these attacks could take place in peace a major campaign would be launched on Changsha first, to threaten Sichuan from the south and paralyze the Chinese railway system. The IJA would then be free to capture staging areas northeast of Sichuan for a 1941 campaign against Chunking.

This campaign would be logistically intensive, costly and face enormous difficulties in distance and terrain. Imperial headquarters in Tokyo thus looked to a less costly approach. The IJN had argued for an offensive in South China to secure the island of Hainan and the coastal ports of Kwanghsi province and then advance inland to Nanning and the Kunlun pass to cut off supply routes from French Indochina. By doing so they would be able to cut off the Chinese from the majority of their foreign supplies and slowly grind them down. This approach promised considerably less in the way of risk and casualties than the IJA’s plan.

Interservice politics however meant that the IJA had to be given a major role in China, one where it was clearly in the lead. Thus a smaller campaign in central China was authorized. The IJA would launch spoiling attacks west of Wuhan, disguised as an attempt at Chunking, to inflict casualties and divert Chinese troops. This would be followed by another set of spoiling operations south of Wuhan near Lake Dongting to threaten Changsha, but really to inflict casualties and divert Chinese troops from the actual, considerably less ambitious objective of Nanchang, a city threatening the supply route to Wuhan. Taking Nanchang would be sufficient glory to mollify the IJA alongside its contributions in South China.

The Chinese however expected that the Japanese would attempt to execute the more ambitious IJA plan. They planned to have their forces retreat and overextend the Japanese, before attempting encirclement attacks on their extended flanks. The Chinese thus met the Japanese Spring offensive from Wuhan with fighting retreats, in order to better sell their plan. In the process they took moderate losses from the more tactically adept Japanese without inflicting commiserate ones in turn.

The Chinese retreated from Suizhou and Zhongxiang with only a token fight, planning on withdrawing to Zaoyang and Xiangyang trapping the Japanese in urban warfare there and attacking their exposed supply lines from troops concealed in the rough terrain on either side of the Japanese supply routes. The Japanese however, having orders not to take excessive casualties and not actually planning on capturing those cities instead stopped and dug in after taking Suizhou and Zhongxiang, with only a moderate pursuit launched by Japanese cavalry to inflict more losses. The Chinese could not let those cities be lost without a fight and after the Japanese had not attempted further movements northwest in three weeks launched a series of bloody counterattacks on May 24th that produced no measurable gains but convinced the IJA commanders at the front to obey their orders and stay dug in.

This uncharacteristic behavior by the IJA led the Chinese leadership to correctly deduce that the Japanese offensive to the Northwest had been a feint. Still believing that the Japanese eventually planned on targeting Chungking, the Chinese deduced that they would attack Changsha next to eliminate the threat it posed to such an offensive. Once more they planned on giving ground to overextend the Japanese along the Xiang River before counterattacking from the mountains of Kiangsi to the east. The best KMT troops in the region where thus assembled at Changsha, often being pulled away from other assignments, such as the elite 22nd division being transferred from the defense of Nanchang…

…The Japanese occupation of Hainan in May of 1940 raised alarm in certain corners of Chungking. Many thought that the attack was nothing but a feint or a bit of opportunism by the IJN. Others saw a potential threat. Most prominent of these was General Li Tsung-Jen. General Li, alongside his ally general Pai Chung-Hsi, was a native of Kwanghsi and saw the taking of Hainan as pointing a dagger at the Chinese supply lines through Indochina and the Kunlun pass. The two men thus begged Chiang for reliable troops to fortify the Kunlun Pass, and incidentally to protect the nearby provincial capital of Nanning.

Most of his advisors urged Chiang to ignore the two former warlords and concentrate on defending against the expected attack on Changsha but Chiang recognized the potential threat to his supply lines and ordered a full corps to dig in at the Kunlun Pass. He even managed to transfer some of his carefully husbanded reserve of aircraft and tanks to support this defense, despite the potential negative impact this might have on the defense of Changsha and the ongoing air defense of Chungking…

…One aspect of the Japanese Hainan Operation that nearly derailed the whole operation was the accidental bombing of the American Gunboat Erie. On the Chinese coast to supervise American interests two squadrons of rookie pilots on their first combat operation mistook her for a Chinese vessel and attacked her on the morning of May 22nd with bombs and machine gun fire. Eire had recently been transferred from the station at Balboa Panama and had not yet painted the additional recognition markings that were standard in the Asiatic fleet. She was hit three times by light bombs and thousands of times by machine gun fire, killing fourteen of her crewmembers and wounding thirty three.

There was a brief worry that war may result but the Japanese promptly apologized and made reparations payments for the incident. The incident did result in an increased alert level, a small supplemental naval bill and the reinforcement of American possessions in the Pacific. It also marked the beginning of a steep decline in Japanese-American relations…

…The turmoil in China led the French to reverse a long standing policy of keeping Indochina under civilian control to place a military governor in charge in early 1940. This measure was meant to allow a more rapid response to a potential spillover of the war in China…

-Into the Abyss: The leadup to the Second World War, Harper and Brothers, New York, 2009




I could have written twice as much as this, but side project took my attention. Next week will be back to Europe if the Spring semester doesn't interfere
 
Seems to be pretty much as OTL here- in OTL China successfully held the Kunlun Pass, if it falls in TTL then they're screwed.

The incident with the Erie seems new though, curious what impact the military rule in Indochina will have.
 
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