As Rodzaevsky becomes ever more assertive on the international stage, his demands for a renegotiation of Vilnius grow ever louder. Eventually, Germany agrees to referenda in eastern Ukraine, Kuban and Crimea, which result in all three regions rejoining Russia. (Ignore those election irregularities. I'm sure a ruthless dictator wouldn't resort to ballot stuffing and intimidation to influence an election...)
I don't think that is plausible, at least not as the first step. It would probably rather be the last step, much like OTL Munich agreement.
- The Japanese Emperor returns from his exile in Siberia to Japan - still in chaos - and with Russian troops and Russian weapons, sets about reconquering his nation.
- Pro-Russian revolts in Litbel erupt and the government is forced to ask for foreign assistance in quelling the violence.
- Seeing the situation closer to home intensify and grow ever closer to war, Germany withdraws all non-diplomatic support for the Chinese Empire, and orders a retreat of their own forces back to only the Shandong Peninsula.
- The Kuomintang seizes the opportunity and promptly launches a series of sucessful offensives into the territory of a country in disarray.
- France, isolated on the diplomatic stage and seeing Germany prepare for war, establishes a non-aggression pact with Russia. Secretly, they also carve out zones of influence in Germany in the event of a war, which is increasingly being seen as inevitable.
- With most revolts crushed, the Japanese Emperor returns to Tokyo. This is typically seen as the end of the Interregnum period of Japanese history. No sooner than he has established some semblance of control over his own people, he begins an invasion of China on the Liaoning Peninsula (with Russian backing).
- Meanwhile in Russia, a series of ever more violent pogroms results in Russia's Jews being rounded up and deported to the Far East - ostensibly for their own safety.
- A series of escalating diplomatic incidents, confrontations and condemnations results in a heightening of global tensions; almost universally, the question is now when, not if, a war will break out.
- The Chinese Empire, squeezed on both sides, sees Bejing fall to the Japanese. The government flees south, and begins negotiating with the Republic.
- Amidst the fraught situation, no one even notices when British troops march into the Bombay Republic and Confederation of Gujarat.
On the other hand, those are plausible. We should also mention Russian Muslims, though, as I pictured Rodzaevsky as Anti-Muslim as well as Antisemitic.
- Turkey officially concludes an alliance with Germany. Russia, seeing her link to the outside world closing off, decides now is the time to act.
- Rodzaevsky issues an ultimatum to Germany and her allies:
- Transfer Belarus to the Russian State
- Provide for a referendum in what remains of Ukraine on joining Russia
- Withdraw all German forces from the Baltic states
- Provide for the establishment of an international administration of the Bosporus and Marmara Sea region
- Germany, of course, refuses Russia's (deliberately) outrageous demands. Within half an hour of their rejection, Russian troops steamroll into Ukraine and Belarus. Kiev falls within the day. The Second World War has begun.
Interesting idea. However, why should Turkey be important in this? And what about the Baltics or Finland?
EDIT: I would love an independent Sudetenland - why would that not be plausible?
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